Marcin

Yes, EU submarines are really good, German AIP conventional being allegedly even more quiet and practically undetectable and very cheap, fraction of the cost of nuclear.

Yes, This is very sad, cancer of political corruption at highest levels is gradually degrading United States. The solution, is very simple: - caps on how much each congress candidate and each presidential candidate can spend for campaign, let people not money vote, - significant part of financing of political parties comes from federal budget on the basis of results of recent polls, - low yearly caps on how much each business entity or person can donate for political parties or inidividual candidates (5,000 USD tops), - easy acces to ballot paper for independent parties and candidates (now actually only Republican and Democratic PArties have easy access), additional 0.03 US dollar you spend on larger ballot paper is worth to preserve democracy and not fall into oligarchy trap. It is that simple, but IMPOSSIBLE in the United States, this is the major source of US degradation.

Yawn, Douglas again has nothing substantial to say.

Jan, I do not understand why you think Donlad Trump could be saviour of US foreign policy and MAGA in global context. Trump wants MAGA for US citizens, his policies are intended to self-isolate United States, and are really effective. I agree with you that EU countries and other countries should take more responsibilty about their defense. And if you would analyze what Asia and especially East Asia, SE Asia and South Asia is doing you would see that they are conducting large programs to modernize and extend their militaries, especially their navies and air forces. Look at South Korea, Japan, India but also Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand. Each and every country in Asia knows that it is THEIR TIME in global history in good and also bad meaning of this phrase. They are preparing to be more independent from US umbrella as US is gradually leaving Asia for Asians (read China), and at the same time hedge the fast rise of Chinese superpower. Europe is not the center of the world any longer, so their defense situation is not that bad. Center of the global interest in all spheres can be presented as 2 circles, 1000 miles of radius each. The centre of the first circle is Teheran and the center of the second is Taipei.

15 hours ago, Marcin said: The solution is achieving numerical superiority in areas where Chinese Navy is technologically near peer competitor with US Navy, with relatively small budget. With this solution Chinese Navy becomes in fast pace the near peer competitor of US Navy while buying additional time needed to close significant technological gaps. Jan, opinion that Destroyers 052D and 055 and frigates 54A are near peer competitors to US destroyers and cruisers is stated by US think tanks in various reports, also for US Congress and US DOD (like this famous yearly report). The features you listed are typical for all modern destroyers commissioned in 21st century, apart from reactive armor which is never used on navy vessels. Gatling guns is a good example where actually US Phalanx CIWS is considered worse than 5-6 of its major competitors from other countries. Chinese CIWS 730 and 1130 are better than Phalanx, but Russian Kashtan is the best because it also has missiles integrated in CIWS so effective firing range is extended from 3 km to 10 km. Recently US Navy was going to install sth similar to Kashtan on US destroyers, as Phalanx is 40 years old and obsolete on modern battlefield. I am not the tube of Chinese propraganda, I just present information, which I find interesting and at the same time threatening our = NATO countries security. Actually Chinese since 2018 try to conceal their naval build up, they ceased to inform about commisioned vessels, and the information about large numbers of launched vessels are provided (together with photo documentation) by amateur navy enthusiasts. I am on the same side as you, although I do not think this is that important, facts=large number of launched Chinese vessels speak for themselves. I am also not happy, just like you, that Chinese dictatorship becomes so strong in military area. But we also cannot do much about it as Chinese GDP at PPP is already 30% higher than US, and PPP GDP is the indicator of resources available for military development. (Actually Chinese always tried to conceal the real size of their GDP in PPP terms using various tricks, so also 2014 survey called International Comparison Program by World Bank Group is biased to the downside.)

I am anti-war, it is just interesting to watch this very complex and multi-layered conflict. Seriously I think that the probability of China-US shooting war under President Trump is very, very small. And I like Trump very much because he already shortened a period of global instability when the world is changing from unipolar to bipolar regime. Trump policies are self isolating United States and such politician is needed for the period of transition. I hope Trump will win re-election and continue his policies for the next 4 years. Until next US president will come in January 2025, the world would be probably much more stable with bipolar G-2 structure more established.

I think it is sad Papillon, but every empire is doing what US is doing now, look at history, it is typical behaviour. And if I am to choose US or Chinese hegemony, I would ALWAYS choose US. Polish soldiers were in Iraq and Afghanistan, killing those poor people and sometimes also dying. And you know what, if tomorrow there would be another adventure in Iran or Venezuela they will go there again and kill again for the sake of oil or whatever needs of our current Big Brother. This is how the world was made thousands years ago. We are all savage cavemen with veneer of ethics and civilization. What is really annoying me, is when people in their huge hypocrisy try to develop narrative to justify these awful deeds. My opinion is you do not want to be invaded develop nuclear weapons or other deterrent so that invasion or occupation is not feasiblde, you don't you are guilty. Will give you one example from my country. School curricula are created in the way to hail glory of war for your country, dying while fighting with intruders, and so on, very stupid strategy. But it is also very inconvenient to occupy Poland, cause there is so much resistance, partisans etc.. So as long as we do not have hydrocarbons, occupation of our country has no tangible benefits. It is really a miracle for me that Middle Eastern countries were allowed to keep oil for themselves, that they were not invaded and colonized. I think only rivalry of superpowers in Cold War era allowed their independence.

Chinese military is technologically very backward in comparison to US military. For contemporary US-China hegemony conflict the most important are naval assets. Navy is the major military force used to control predominant transport routes of the modern world: sea lanes. Sea lanes ensure both: access to important natural resources (like hydrocarbons) and safety of global trade - the backbone of modern economic development. It is also important that US (like earlier British Empire) is mainly naval empire, contrary to Russia and China which are both land based empires. The reason is US is located in sparsely populated and isolated continent of America, and Russia and China are located at the center of the world in supercontinent Eurasia. US location is good for safety of its population but bad for maintaining hegemony. Where technologically are different types of Chinese Navy ships: Chinese aircraft carriers: US technology was there in 1948 (after Midway class carriers, before Forrestal class carriers): 71 years ago, Chinese destroyers: US technology was there in 1985 (early Ticonderoga class cruisers/Arleigh Burke class destroyers, after Mk 41 VLS system was installed): 34 years ago, Chinese frigates: US technology was there in 1985 (the same as with destroyers): 34 years ago, Chinese nuclear attack submarines: US technology was there in 1967 (early Sturgeon/637 class vessels): 52 years ago, Chinese nuclear ballistic missile submarines: US technology was there in 1961 (around Ethan Allen class/Lafayette class): 58 years ago. Chinese Naval strategy makes use of its main advantages: - low manufacturing costs, - large industrial base in shipbuilding industry and generally the ability to scale up fast any manufacturing task, - relatively modern missile technology. Chinese strategy also makes use of US Navy main disadvantages: - long time of procurement processes of new vessels (up to 10 years), - very high inertia and slow changes of strategy in comparison to changing global dynamics in Navy warfare (15+ years). The solution is achieving numerical superiority in areas where Chinese Navy is technologically near peer competitor with US Navy, with relatively small budget. With this solution Chinese Navy becomes in fast pace the near peer competitor of US Navy while buying additional time needed to close significant technological gaps. In surface combatants: Chinese Navy is close to US Navy in capabilities of destroyers and frigates. Recent developments in missile technology negated usefulness of smaller number of larger vessels vs larger number of smaller vessels and also uselfulness of aircraft carriers vs near peer competitors. Chinese Navy also extensively utilizes smaller but capable vessels: corvettes for littoral missions in EEZ. Chinese Navy build up, ships launched in 2019 versus maximum number of ships of the same contemporary classes launched in any year by US Navy: 17 Chinese 56A type corvettes launched in 2019 – 4 US Littoral Combat Ships (both classes together) launched in 2018, 11 Chinese multirole destroyers launched in 2019 (8 of 052D type and 3 of 055 type) – 5 Arleigh Burke multirole destroyers launched in 1994. With the current pace of building new vessels China aims to achieve numerical parity and later superiority vs US Navy in Pacific about 2022-2023 and if needed numerical superiority against all fleets present in East Asia around 2025-2026. Chinese ships are on average 2-3 times cheaper than their US equivalents.

MAGA is just FAGA

But if Germany would go Denmark way in renewables they would need storage about 1 week of consumption, rough estimation 10 TWh, 10,000 GWh, 700,000,000 batteries from Nissan Leaf. Batteries concept for energy storage is fancy total nothing like these Tesla cars, Hyperdope. They lack these 1, 2 or 3 zeros/orders of magnitute of storage capacity. First time I read articles about these 3 Ellon Musk financial pyramids or phantasies call it what you like, I really thought the article was one great sarcasm and joke about these "inventions" but it was for REAL, people buy Tesla stocks etc., guy is billionaire. I think people with good lawyers and moral bypass could make billions, real time for snake oil sellers.

Both disasters had 30 km radius exclusion zones estsblished. In Chernobyl only about 1 km2 out of 2,600 km2 of exclusion zone has radiation level that is harmful to humans. After Chernobyl and Fukushima you could "be alerted" by higher radiation levels ANYWHERE in the world, yet they were no harmful at all, apart from exclusion zones, we just have good instruments. With 100 mile radius safe area assured by location of power plant, chernobyl and Fukushima are no problem out of the exclusion area. In 100 mile radius from Fukushima: 4 million people live for 8 years, in 100 mile radius from chernobyl : 4 million people live (including capital of Ukraine Kijev) for 33 years. In both locations no statistically significant rise of radiation related deaths. Artificial lake or 2, each having 0.1 km3 of water would be more than enough I really like that I posted this comment and observed your and @NickW reactions. Nuclear power is doomed (or you are from USA and there is still hope) if even at this forum people react like this.

You only need to repeat this lie from your last paragraph 999 times more and according to Goebbels it would be true.

Most of the world, maybe not including parts of Siberia is already geologically explored, you cannot find many new 10 Gb fields or even 1 Gb fields. We consume 1 Gb of crude every 10 days.

This is solution for only a few large and populous countries like China, US, Russia, india is too small.

I got this idea of clustering lets say 30 nuclear reactors in uninhabitated land, 100 miles from nearest city, workers commuting every day by dedicated High speed rail 35 minutes, UHV DC lines to transport electricity. This solves problem of human fear of Radiation, radioactive pollution. Safe zone with radius 80 miles. You can have such super plant located anywhere in non seismic region. Water is not a problem, at this scale you pump water from nearest major lake or river to artificial pool at the plant site.