Marcin2

If Ukraine will win the war I think it is very probable that it becomes NATO member. Russai will be much weaker. Of course Russai will threat us with nuclear atttack whith is not probable. The thing is US A bombs are much closer to Russia and they can destroy Moscow in 7 minuts, before Russsia can decide on second strike.

@Ron Wagnervery good podcast. It now seems that Russian ban on gasoline exports is really impacting its overall exports and health of processsing industry. For me everything I hear about Russia becoming weaker is very dear for my heart.

Tom i read a lot of your comments and have a great respect for you. But I always want that the scenario is right. russia started the war, Russia is an evil empire. We all need to fight Russia. In Poland we doubled our military budget after the war started. We all need to help Ukraine. If we do not the next will be NATO countries Lietuva, Lotva, Estonia, and next is Poland, my country. Of course Russia will not attack Poland cause they know we are mad dogs. During all the wars in the past we had very strong partisan movement. We would just kill any Russian by firearms or by hand, that is how Polish citizens are. Poland sends anything we have to Ukraine. We have 2 milllion Ukrainian refugees.

Russia is a different country than you think. They believe that Ukraine is part of Russia. Their military complex is very strong. They are one of the largest exporters of crude oil and natural gas. Russia will find till the end to conquer Ukraine. They will not succeed, we in the West (im from Poland) know it, but they do not. Putin has ultimate power, nobody can threat him, till he is alive. I think steady help to the Ukraine is our duty, and with this we will defend Ukraine from Russia. Russian territory gains a re very small 500 sq km since October 2023. The problem is to get to Ukraine the most modern NATO weapons. But NATO is afraid that Russia will use tactical atomic bombs just 200 k TNT. I do not believe in this scenario. US and european NATO should give Ukraine the best weapons to defend them from Russia, I have many friends in Ukraine and they try to live an normal live under Russsian rockets. Believe me Ukrainian people are tough in majority . They stay in Ukraine to defend their loved country. Russia will not win this war, I am sure of this. I am just not sure how long the war will prolong.

Europe was the area of constant war at least since 700 BC, that is 2700 years ago. Now we have the longest period without major war on the territory of EU (79 years since WW2). It is a great achievement. I fill like a European citizen, although in my heart I am Polish. But EU enabled me to work in Germany, Netherlands, Switherland and France, and SLovakia earlier. EU is the best what Europer could design. We should be more integrated in military sphere, against Russia. Together with NATO it will make paradise on Earth. Of course if only we will not allow money immigrants that call themselves refugees( It is strange that 90% are 20-40 years males?!!!!).

Snake oil sellers are everywhere , like always, but maybe more in these times. Something with no inherent value is just propagated as a stock/commdity I do not know what. My brother which is bold enough earned a lot on bitcoin, but I always said it is a simple fraud. That is probsbly that I am Certified Internal Auditor and this causes a lot of restrain.

Don't get me wrong, I am citizen of Poland happy NATO country, which (NATO) I back with both my feets and palms. I just say there is infrastructure and there is second level US infrastructure. I was not visititng US since 2006 so I cannot tell a lot from my own experience, but my friends that saw Los Angeles and Sanfranciso say it is full of beggars.

I hope i would not rough many feathers to compare it with China infestructure. They spend around 40% of GDP on investment. Half of this goes to infrastrcuture of all kind that means 3.6 TRILLION US dollars. EVERY YEAR for 20 years. with no special Acts. That is why China has the best infrastructure of ANY kind in the world. It is just the fact. It is made for their MANUFACTURING busienss whivh at 5.57 trillion UDS in 2023 is the largest in the world, over twice US manfacturing value.

The problem with big oil is that they corrupt all, at least in US. In US you have super PAC's, where oil companies can pump money, in Poland this would lead you to jail. Just US is a diffferent country, the world capital of high level corrruption. Till 2020 I thought it is Beijing.

Actually US is the third largest oil producer after Russia and Saudi Arabia. Nobody with a sane mind includes condensate in crude oil production.

I would say, a very good strategy. Struct the Russian Nazi's where it causes pain. Ukraine is still trying to keep status quo, but they loose land to Russia. Fortunately with very slow pace , lets say 100 sq km a month. It is not changin the whole Ukraine strategy but still Russia has strategic initiative.

For city cars EV's are competitive, some of my friends think about buiyng a chep Chinese EV car for shopping, and daily commutes within Warsaw. It is ok, it can be this market. But when I go for vacation, say it Croatia 1800 km, or even Czech Republic for 800 km, electric cars are nobrainer for us. Electric cars are a good second cars in the family. But not the first one's. Also for trucks it is no brainer, you just need to understand current demands of European supply chains. Diesel truck makes 800 km (500 miles) a day and does not need to thin k about recharging. I work in transport/logistic industry and electrci vehicles just do not fit yet - when they will have 800-900 km mileage on batteries it would change, but now it is a toy for very rich and not effcient companies.

My company wanted to be ecology wise so we bought 18 LNG trucks instead of all diesel fleet. And you know it is not worth its price. LNG trucks can go for 800 -900 km 550 miles, whereas diesel trucks keeep up to 1000 miles. It was bad investment. I do not even have fantasy about buiyng electric trucks. We have a fleet of 50 some electric last mile delivery small trucks (with 2000-2500 pound capacity) and only for some clients that really pay for this, for each mile driven by electric small trucks. But it is a PR thing, most of our clients stll want us to travel their loads in diesel trucks.

It is obvious that Chinese EV's are much cheaper. It is the cause of centered supply chains and much lower production costs (everything from the tiniest bolt to semiconductors and batteries are sourced in Chinese competitive market). US and probably Japan and South Korea will impose import duties but the rest of the world will be happy to drive cheap EV's. China can scale up any industry it want (apart from newest semi's , they can't go beneath 28nm with its semi producing equipment, but it is no problem as 95% of goods rely on 28nm and more mature semis).

CO2 is 0.4% at present. In Cretacean period it was 3.0% with of course higher temperatures. So even if our industrial activities will increase CO2 to 0.8% till 2100 it will mean 1 Centigrade plus for all of us, we can challenge this, no problem. My Poland will be even more pleasant without harsh winters.