Blogs

US - update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 111,702 horizontal wells in 12 US states, through March 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 11.1 Gbo and 128 Tcf. Arkansas, which we’ve recently added to our data platform, is included as well. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag for many horizontal wells. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Shale oil production in these states grew by 1.5 million bo/d last year to over 6.8 million bo/d, as is visible in the graph above. Although preliminary data has the first few months of 2019 down a little, I expect that March set another record, after revisions. There are some more incredible numbers; the 12 thousand wells that were completed last year contributed almost 4 million bo/d to this total in December (visible in the tooltip on the light-blue area). But their initial decline was steep, and these wells were ‘only’ producing 3 million bo/d in March this year. In order to maintain the current production level, every month a decline of about 350 thousand bo/d has to be filled. Gas production from these wells has grown steadily, and in March topped 61 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to gas). In the “Well quality” tab the production profiles of all the horizontal wells in the major tight oil basins are selected. After many years of major improvements in well productivity, there appears to be a slow-down in the last 2 years. The wells that started production last year are on a trajectory to recover less than 10% more in the first 12 months, on average, than the wells that began in 2017. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG operated more than 600,000 bo/d of capacity in March, more than double the number 2. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which has just released May production data. Our data and analytics subscribers can now access this data in our services. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://bit.ly/2XVwFZD Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Crude OIL intraday 08.07.2019

Covered up the deal to buy in BRENT and WTI. I didn’t twitch with BRENT and closed at take profit almost at the top. In WTI I decided to play around buy-sell intraday and got a hemorrhoid on my ass. I calculated the intermediate peak incorrectly and closed the deals BUY with profit but not very nice. The SELL deal closed after a drawdown, albeit with a profit. Now I look at the south

Eagle Ford - update through March 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,637 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing from 2008 onward, through March 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards March oil production came in at about 1.3 million bo/d, after upcoming revisions, 5% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas production is still hovering at a level close to 6 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to ‘gas’). The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the average production profiles of all these wells. The wells completed in 2019 are so far slightly ahead of earlier wells. But well productivity has stagnated since 2017, as you’ll find in the bottom chart (‘Cumulative production profiles’). EOG and ConocoPhillips, the two leading oil operators in the basin are close to their historical output record, which they both set last year. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 2,891 horizontal wells that started in 2012 have now recovered 150 thousand barrels of oil each, on average, while their production rate has dropped below 20 bo/d. The wells that have been completed since 2017 are on a path to do 200 thousand barrels before hitting a similar level. Of course, there are major regional differences. In the oil-rich counties Karnes and DeWitt, this metric is closer to 300 thousand barrels of oil. In the 4th tab, the operators in this area are ranked by their well performance, as measured by the average cumulative production in the first 2 years. Of the operators with more than 100 wells, Devon and ConocoPhillips are showing the best performance. Their wells recovered on average 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years.   Later this week, we will have a new post on all covered states in the US. Next week we will be a few days in Houston, before traveling to Denver for URTeC, where we have a booth (#951). Please contact us if you would like to meet us in either city!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Xu6D4i   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Permian – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,384 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through March 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production from horizontal wells in the Permian set another record in March, at over 3.2 million bo/d, even before upward revisions. As the blue areas indicate, in March more than 2/3rd of total production came from wells that began production since 2018. Gas production also set a new record at close to 11 Bcf/d (switch “Product” to gas), although not all of it is wanted due to sometimes negative pricing. As the “Well quality” tab reveals, initial performance has increased since 2016, but nowhere near the gains seen in the 2013-2016 time frame. This also doesn’t take into account that laterals kept increasing, as did proppant loadings. The biggest change was in the number of well completions; in 2018, on average more than 400 horizontal wells came online each month, versus less than 200 in 2016. The final dashboard, “Top operators”, displays the production history of the 5 largest operators. They all set new output records in 2019. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 2,254 horizontal wells that started production in 2016 have so far recovered the most oil, on average: 200 thousand barrels of oil. They are still producing at an average rate just north of 100 bo/d, and they may recover another 200 thousand barrels before they are down to 20 bo/d (extrapolate the curve to arrive at roughly this number). The following screenshot (from our advanced analytics service) shows how initial well productivity has evolved in the 6 top-producing counties in the Permian.   Click on the image to see a high-res version of it. The graph shows the average oil recovery in the first year on production, by county and production start date. Increases in lateral length and proppant use greatly boosted initial productivity in the past 6 years. The best well performance is now seen in Midland and Lea. Interestingly, performance dropped somewhat in Reeves County in the last year. The WSJ recently published 2 articles about the Permian, for which they also found use in our analytics service (behind paywall): A Leader of America’s Fracking Boom Has Second Thoughts (last week) A Fracking Experiment Fails to Pump as Predicted (today)   Later this month, we will be at the URTeC in Denver, from July 22nd until the 24th. Drop by our booth, #951, if you are in the area, for a chat and a personalized demo! Early next week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by an update on all covered states in the US.   Production data is subject to revisions.   Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2XsKCCQ   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Marcellus (PA) – update through April 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,915 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through April. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards With March revisions in, it has become clear that another record was set, at 18.4 Bcf/d. April natural gas production was at a similar level. New wells recover on average more than 4 Bcf of gas in the first 2 years on production (‘Well quality’ tab). It took each of the ~1,300 horizontal wells, that began production in 2013, more than 5 years to reach that level. The top 4 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania all set new output records this year (‘Top operators’). We still list EQT and Rice Drilling as 2 separate entities. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. Improvements in initial well productivity have not yet stalled; the 195 wells that started production in Q4 last year had so far the best start, recovering 1.7 Bcf in the first 5 months, on average. You can also find here that many wells from the 2010 vintage have now declined to below 500 Mcf/d, while recovering about 3.2 Bcf. The wells from the 2017/2018 vintages are on a trajectory to triple that number, on average.   Tomorrow, Tuesday July 2nd at noon (ET), we will present a 20 minute briefing on all the major tight gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page.   Later this week we will have a post on the Permian, and next week on the Eagle Ford. The latest Texas data is already available in our online analytics service. For just $52 per month, you can already always access the latest production data with the Analyst version of ShaleProfile Analytics. This is a monthly subscription service that you can cancel at any time.   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org     Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2XkuPpP   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Fayetteville (AR) – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 5,773 horizontal wells in Arkansas that started production from 2006 onward, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards While we were waiting for some revision data for Pennsylvania, we finished adding Arkansas to our ShaleProfile data platform, which this post is all about. Relative to the other states we cover, not much shale oil & gas is produced in Arkansas nowadays. However, it is home to the Fayetteville shale gas basin, which produced in its heyday close to 3 Bcf/d of natural gas. In March this year, it was down to 1.3 Bcf/d. The graph above shows how output grew rapidly from 2007 to 2012, when natural gas prices hit a low. Interest started to wane, and since 2016 fewer than 100 horizontal wells have been completed. If you change the “show production by” to “Operator (actual)”, you will see that most of the gas in this play has been produced by a single operator, Southwestern Energy. However, last year it decided to exit the area and it sold its holdings to privately owned Flywheel Energy. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of all the horizontal wells in this area. It reveals that well productivity improved rapidly through 2010, but then rose no further. In 2014 and 2015, the last years that saw more than 100 well completions, well results actually declined. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The 562 horizontal wells that began in 2013 have now recovered each 1.5 Bcf. Their average production rate has dropped to just 334 Mcf/d. Almost all production in this play came from just 5 counties, which you’ll find in the 2nd tab (“Cumulative production ranking”), which ranks all counties by cumulative gas production since 2006. The following screenshot, taken from a dashboard in our analytics service, shows the well results in 5 major US tight gas plays, as measured by the average cumulative gas production in the first 2 years on production. This clearly demonstrates that the Fayetteville and the Barnett could not compete with the Haynesville and the Appalachian basin. Although we will probably not have separate updates about Arkansas anytime soon, it will now be part of the general “US updates”. Our Analytics and Data subscribers will always have access to the latest data in this state.   Yesterday we were glad to see that the Wall Street Journal decided to use again our service for their article about Pioneer Natural Resources. Find here the original story (behind paywall): A Leader of America’s Fracking Boom Has Second Thoughts.   If revised data is released soon, we will have a post on Pennsylvania later this week. Next week we will be back with updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford, and a show on enelyst on Tuesday at noon (ET). For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J9i7Qu Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

North Dakota – update through April 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,703 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2005 onward, through April. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota stayed flat in April m-o-m, at 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production continued to trend upward and reached 2.9 Bcf/d. Following slow winter months, 104 wells came online in April, slightly more than a year earlier (95). About 90% of all this production in North Dakota comes from only 4 counties: McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn and Williams. These are also the only counties where rigs were actively drilling horizontal wells in the past month. The “Top operators” overview shows that the top 5 operators are all below their all-time highs. Note that ConocoPhillips’ production jumped, as it had shut in more wells than the other operators during the winter. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 horizontal wells that began production in the 3rd quarter of 2017 (shown in the red curve) had the best start. They recovered on average 230 thousand barrels of oil in the first 20 months, and are still at an average production rate of 172 bo/d. If you extrapolate their production, you’ll find that they may recover another 70 thousand barrels of oil, before they’ve fallen to 50 bo/d. One important reason behind the stagnating well performance is that since that time (2017 Q3), operators have not increased proppant loadings and lateral lengths any further in this basin. The following screenshot, taken from a dashboard in our analytics service, shows the location of all these horizontal wells in North Dakota, colored by the gas/oil ratio in April. The bottom right plot shows the gas/oil ratio for all vintages since 2008, versus cumulative production. You can see that the curves point upward and that some saw a recent acceleration in GOR. There are other areas where these effects are even stronger, and where they also appear to negatively impact EURs. I’ll be happy to show you that in a personal online demo if you would like to know more about this. Finally, I wanted to share with you that we just went live with a brand-new REST API. From now on, our data subscribers can query our database on demand, instead of waiting for the weekly database update. This helps staying up-to-date, as every day we are automatically refreshing data from the many data sources we use. If you’re interested yourself in always having access to the latest production, completion, and location data on horizontal shale wells, just take a look. You’ll find a sample of the data and a description of the structure.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released April production data recently, followed by updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/31LvS0D Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

US - update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 103,883 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through February 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.8 Gbo and 116 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag for many horizontal wells. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards A thousand horizontal wells were completed every month last year, on average. But now the frantic growth in oil production in the past 2 years appears to have stalled. Production in the first 2 months of 2019 was slightly down, although revisions will probably bring the level back up close to the record in December, at just over 6.7 million bo/d. The “Well quality” tab reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but by a smaller margin than in the 5 preceding years. In the bottom chart (“Cumulative production profiles”), you will find that about 132 thousand barrels of oil are recovered in the first year, on average, versus 122 thousand barrels for wells that began production in 2017. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. Most are near their production highs, although ConocoPhillips saw a large reduction in output in February, especially in North Dakota where it is also one of the largest operators. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart confirms that initial well productivity in these basins has increased almost every single year. Associated gas production is up as well, as you’ll find if you switch ‘Product’ to ‘Gas’. The chart will then show that recent wells are also on a trajectory to recover well over 1 Bcf of natural gas, on average. The following screenshot, from our Professional Analytics service, reveals the top 10 oil-producing counties in these major tight oil basins. Click on the image to see the high-resolution version. McKenzie County in North Dakota is still clearly in the lead, followed by Reeves, Weld and Midland counties. Lea County (NM), in which output more than doubled in the past 2 years, is catching up fast. In the coming week, we will release a major improvement for our data subscribers: a REST API, that allows our customers to keep their database closely synchronized with ours, which is updated on a daily basis.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release April production data in the coming days. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2WC8zap Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Eagle Ford - update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,421 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards February oil production came in at 1,22 million bo/d, the same rate of production as a year earlier. After revisions, it will be a little higher but still below the level at the end of last year. As is visible in the graph above, the contribution of wells that came online before 2018 was just about 50% in February. The ‘Well quality’ tab reveals that the performance of the 1,800+ horizontal wells that began production in the main formations (Eagle Ford & Austin Chalk) in 2018 was equal to those that started a year earlier (see bottom chart). You can also find that typically, after 6 years on production, wells have declined to a production rate of about 20 bo/d. There are of course major regional variances, which I will show later in this post. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. In the 2nd tab, you will find a ranking of all counties in the Eagle Ford, based on total oil production from these horizontal wells through February. Karnes is #1, with over 700 million barrels of oil produced, since 2008. Now, let’s take a closer look at how well productivity has evolved in the top 4 counties shown in this list. The following screenshot comes from our advanced online analytics service: The map shows the location of all the horizontal oil wells in these 4 counties (click on the image for a high-resolution version). The top right graph shows the average well performance over time, as measured by the cumulative oil recovery in the first 12 months. DeWitt County is in the lead, with close to 190 thousand barrels of oil recovered in the first year on production, on average. However, total oil production in this county has dropped close to a multi-year low, as completion activity has dropped (not visible in this image). Only 152 wells came online in this county in 2018 (vs. 383 in 2014).   In the middle of next week we will have a new post on all covered states in the US. We still offer free trials and demos in case you are curious to know what more you could learn from our analytics and data services: request a demo or trial.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2WisrdR Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Permian – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 20,349 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards The breakneck growth in Permian production during the past 2 years appears to have taken a breather, at least temporarily. I expect that after revisions, production in February will come in 5-10% higher than shown here, or about 3.2-3.3 million bo/d. This would represent just a modest gain from the end of last year. Gas production is now above 10 Bcf/d. We sometimes get questions about whether our oil numbers include NGLs. That is not the case; many states do not require operators to report NGLs, and we therefore do not publish them either. If condensate is reported separately, we add it to the oil figures. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of these 20 thousand horizontal wells. They are grouped and averaged by the year in which production began. You can easily see there that initial well productivity has increased further in the past 2 years, although less than in the period from 2013 and 2016. The wells that started in 2018 are on a path to recover almost 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production, on average. However, this does not take into account that laterals have gotten longer, and that more proppants are used nowadays. If you normalize for either of these factors, as is possible in our advanced analytics service, you’ll find that well productivity already topped out in the middle of 2016. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. As you can see here, peak rates are still going up. The more than a thousand wells that started in the final quarter of 2018 peaked at 880 bo/d, on average. They’re on a path to recover each around 300 thousand barrels of oil, before they’ve declined to a rate of 50 bo/d. The following screenshot (also from our advanced analytics service) shows how total oil production has developed in the top 8 producing counties in the Permian. Output in each of these counties has risen strongly in the past three years. The locations of the related horizontal wells are shown on the map. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford. Tomorrow at noon (ET) we will present a briefing on all the major shale oil basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. If you’re interested, register here for free: enelyst registration page.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HHKJkB Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile
 

investor

the press seems to be just a bunch of parrots that do not do their due dilagence ....just go to the texas railroad commision......which collect the royalties and taxes and you can see the  correct production numbers .....always  3 to 400 thousand  per day less than what is reported in the press .....wow .....are we up here getting hoodwinked ......

Marcellus (PA) – update through March 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,853 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through March 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania dropped by a small amount in March, but remained close to January’s record output, at 18.2 Bcf/d. In the first quarter of this year, 147 wells started production, almost unchanged from a year earlier (142). New wells peak at a level of around 12,000 Mcf/d, which is roughly 20% higher than the peak rate of wells that came online in 2017 (‘Well quality’ tab). Range Resources was the only operator in the top 5 that increased production in March and it is now just above 2 Bcf/d of operated production (final tab). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. If you go through these quarters (click on a quarter in the legend to highlight the respective curve), you’ll note that initial well productivity has steadily improved over the years. The 195 horizontal wells that started in the final quarter last year had again the best start and recovered 1.4 Bcf of natural gas in the first 4 months on production, on average. If they follow a similar decline path as earlier wells, they will recover around 10 Bcf of gas each, before they’ve fallen to an average production rate of 500 Mcf/d. In our subscription service you can easily find that these new wells are completed with nearly 18 million pounds of proppants, on average. This is double the amount that was used just 4 years ago. While output in Susquehanna, the most prolific county, is still rising rapidly, other counties appear to be over their peak. See for example the production in Lycoming and Wyoming in the screenshot below. It reveals the total gas production in the top 6 counties in Pennsylvania. The map on the right shows the exact location of the horizontal wells in these counties. Click on the image to see the high-resolution version. This dashboard is available in our online analytics service. Next week, we will have new posts on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Texas recently released production data through February/March, which is now already available in our analytics and data services. Next week Tuesday at noon (ET) we will present a briefing on all the major tight oil basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HHKJkB Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

North Dakota – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,597 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota rose by 4% in March m-o-m to 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production was even up by 6.5%, reaching 2.8 Bcf/d, a new all-time high. As is shown in the chart above, the 13 thousand horizontal wells that started production before 2018 contributed only half of the oil production in March (everything below the light blue area). Five to six years ago it used to take a well about 5 years to recover 200 thousand barrels of oil, as you’ll find in the bottom chart in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells are capable of reaching this level in just 15 months. However, initial declines are steeper nowadays. After about 2 years on production, these new wells decline to production rates not far above those of older vintages, on average (see the top chart in that dashboard). The final tab reveals the production and location of the 5 leading operators. Hess just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer, far behind Continental Resources. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here it is easy to see that initial well productivity has improved almost every year since 2010. However, as noted last time, older vintages (2008-2011) appear to hold up a little better than later wells. This holds true even after excluding wells that have been refrac’ed (which is possible in our subscription services). The following screenshot, taken from our analytics service, shows the output from the 7 largest fields in North Dakota. On the map, the locations of the wells in these fields are plotted. Recently, production in Banks and Reunion Bay has jumped higher, surpassing the record output of the 2 fields where unconventional production really started in North Dakota; the Sanish and Parshall fields. Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released March production data recently. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VQp3vo Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

US - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 102,269 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through January 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.6 Gbo and 113 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January production from these wells was at a similar level as a month earlier, with about 6.6 million bo/d (after revisions). The Permian has been responsible for most of the growth in the past 2 years. If you exclude this basin (using the “Basin” filter at the bottom), you will see that combined production in the other basins only surpassed the 2014 peak in December. The “Well quality tab” reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but only slightly. Also in this regard did the Permian have a positive impact; if you deselect this basin, you’ll note that the improvement is even smaller without it. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG increased its output by almost 50% in the past 2 years, and is now close to 600 thousand bo/d of operated capacity. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Average peak rates have again increased in 2018 (636 bo/d vs. 567 bo/d in 2017). If you switch Product to “gas”, you’ll see the natural gas production profiles for these same wells, most of it associated with oil production. These profiles have also improved a lot in recent years; the almost 8,000 horizontal wells that started in 2017 are on a trajectory to recover over 1 Bcf of natural gas each, on average. Of course, there are major differences between and within these basins. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release March production data by the end of this week. In our subscription services, you will always find the most recent data, as we process many of our data sources on a daily basis. For most states, we already have February or even March (Wyoming and Montana) production data. Even with the $52/month Analyst subscription you can already access this data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2JI4Qka Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Contaminated oil in Druzhba pipeline to cost Russia estimated $435 million

Moscow, Russia, May 13, 2019. As the situation with the quality of oil transported from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba oil pipeline is gradually improved, financial issues have come to the fore. Or, more precisely, the amount this accident will cost Russia has become of great concern. On May 11, 2019, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko reported that Belarus had lost an enormous amount of money; in particular, it had not received any profit, currency earnings, or transit. A. Lukashenko said the estimated loss of hundreds of millions of dollars was not far from the truth. Vedomosti cites the possible amount of losses on May 13, 2019, as being in the range of $271.3 million to $435.3 million. The main components of the damage are the loss of transit profits, the loss of oil refining profits, the cost of cleaning, and, possibly, the replacement and repair of damaged equipment. Loss of Oil Transit Profits In 2018, the transit fee for 1 ton of Russian oil via Belarus in the direction of Poland, Germany, and Ukraine was US $0.84/100 km. The length of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the territory of Belarus is 1900 km (i.e., the payment for the entire route is US $15.96/ton). Different sources have discussed different oil transit volumes for 2018: the volume is about 48.9 million tons according to Transneft and 58.8 million tons according to Gomeltransneft Druzhba. That is, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s profits could amount to $780.4 million to $938.5 million for transit in 2018. If the tariff and the volume of transit remain the same, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s lost profits for 14 days could range from $29 million to $35 million. The Russian Ministry of Energy expects the situation with the quality of oil in the Druzhba pipeline to normalize in the 2nd half of May 2019. In this case, normalization entails cleaning one run of the pipeline in each of the main export destinations. As a result, the pipeline throughput capacity will decrease. According to Gomeltransneft Druzhba estimates, the throughput capacity of the Druzhba pipeline may be reduced to 40 million tons/year after the accident. As a result, the company will transit 8.9 million to 18.8 million fewer tons of oil in 2019 than in 2018 (equal to a loss of $142 million to $300 million). Loss of Oil Refining Profits The poor quality of oil has forced the Mozyr Oil Refinery and the Naftan Oil Refinery to reduce their production of oil products. According to Belneftekhim, on May 11, 2019, the Mozyr Oil Refinery started to refine oil the quality of which meets the standard. By that time, Naftan was still suffering from a reduced load because the oil transit via the uncontaminated Surgut–Polotsk pipeline is insufficient for the optimal load of the plant. The damage amounted to US $100 million of lost profits. Losses Due to Equipment Damage The Mozyr Oil Refinery almost immediately claimed that equipment had been damaged. The management of the company said the equipment was damaged due to the high content of organochlorine — which has a high corrosive activity — in the incoming oil. Failures of a number of heat-exchange tubes of the HK-105 air cooler consisting of 6 sections were revealed at unit LK6U No. 2 (the primary distillation unit) of section C-100 on April 20, 2019. According to experts’ estimates, such tubes cost 3.5 million rubles each (a total of US $323 thousand). An independent expert investigation with the involvement of the Belarusian and Russian parties is necessary for an objective assessment of the damage to the equipment. Is the Damage Recoverable? The amount is staggering, and the issue of compensation will require serious discussion. However, not everything is as critical as it seems at first glance. Interfax, citing its sources, said that most of Belarus’s losses from contaminated oil in the Druzhba pipeline at this stage are not irrecoverable. The lost transit and under-utilization of the refinery will be rectified as the delivery schedule gets caught up with by the end of 2019. Possible damage to the refinery equipment would be the most serious damage, but it will take time to assess the situation. Moreover, the issue of the poisonous oil which is still on the territory of Belarus remains unresolved. Background What Happened  On April 19, 2019, Belneftekhim complained about a deterioration in the quality of the Russian Urals supplied to Belarusian refineries via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Almost immediately, it became clear that this referred to the pollution of oil with organochlorine, which is a chlorine compound released during distillation. The polluted oil has damaged the equipment of the Mozyr Oil Refinery in Belarus. Belarus had to stop the export of light oil products to Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries; Europe had to stop importing oil from the Druzhba. Oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline, which accounts for up to 8% of the EU’s annual imports, has reached the level of interstate relations between Russia and Belarus and has raised the price of oil throughout the world. As of April 13, the main channel for oil export from Russia to Poland and Germany is still completely paralyzed, but the first success of cleaning the Ukraine-Hungary minor southern string has been achieved. What is the Druzhba? The Druzhba oil pipeline, built in the 1960s with the support of the Volga region oil fields, was one of the main integration projects of the USSR with the countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. The Druzhba remains an important supplier of oil to Europe; refineries in Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and the Czech Republic still depend heavily on this pipeline. The Druzhba transits about 65 million tons of oil per year, which is a quarter of Russia’s total exports. About one-third of this oil is refined in Belarus, and almost all the remainder is received by the EU.  

Permian – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 20,021 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards The chart above shows the massive growth in Permian production, as well as the underlying decline. Preliminary oil production for January came in at 3.1 million bo/d, which after revisions will be closer to 3.5 million bo/d. That means that all the wells that started before 2018 only contributed 1/3rd of total production in January. Natural gas production, most of it associated with the production of oil, has also risen strongly. It is now well over 10 Bcf/d, placing the Permian above the Haynesville and the Utica, both in absolute numbers, and production growth. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of these 20 thousand horizontal wells. They are grouped and averaged by the year in which production began. Although activity has steeply increased, there has not been a negative impact on well performance so far. The ~5 thousand horizontal wells that started in 2018 peaked at a rate of 730 bo/d, more than 100 bo/d higher than the wells that began in the previous year. Still, after the rapid improvements in performance in the years up to 2016, a slowdown is apparent. The final tab gives an overview of the 5 largest operators. Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho are now both above 250 thousand bo/d. Occidental and Anadarko are also in this list. Occidental recently made a higher bid than Chevron in the scramble for Anadarko’s assets. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also illustrates the steadily increasing well performance in the Permian, as the curves are trending to gradually higher recoveries. The 2,247 horizontal wells that began in 2016, represented by the light brown curve, recovered 182 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2 years on production. They are on a trajectory to recover close to 400,000 barrels of oil, before they decline to a level of 20 bo/d. Early next week we will have a post on all covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VpW5Cm Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Haynesville - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from 5,059 horizontal wells in the Haynesville, that have started producing since 2009/2010, through January 2019. The post on the Permian has been delayed to later this week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in the Haynesville rose by more than 2 Bcf/d in 2018 to well over 8 Bcf/d, which was the strongest growth since 2012, breaking the previous record set 6 years earlier. The apparent drop in the last 2 months visible is due to missing production data from new wells, which will become available over time. The main reason behind this fast growth is that about 30% more wells were completed in 2018 than in the previous year. Well productivity made substantial jump in 2016 (see “Well quality”), followed by a small one in 2017, but did not improve further in 2018, based on preliminary data. New wells are on a path to recover close to 6 Bcf in the first 2 years, on average, a level that earlier wells are unlikely to reach in their lifetime. Proppant loadings have increased the most in this basin, over the last couple of years. On average, well above 20 million pounds of proppants were injected into wells completed in 2018, versus less than 5 million pounds in 2012. The final tab shows the production and location of the top 5 operators, including Chesapeake and Indigo, both operating over 1 Bcf/d.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between production rates, and cumulative recovery, over time. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also shows the major improvement in well productivity. Newer wells peak at double the rate than wells from a couple of years ago, and their initial decline is less steep. However, also these more recent wells appear to follow a similar decline after this initial period, based on preliminary data. This is more visible if you change the “Show wells by” selection to ‘quarter of first flow’, which displays more granular and recent data. Later this week we will have a post on the Permian. Today at noon (EST) we will present a briefing on all the major gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile
 

Introduction

I am an enthusiastic person who check the prices of oil and gas regularly. I also check the variation of oil prices over time and do some market analysis related research.

Eagle Ford - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,309 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January oil production came in at 1,24 million bo/d, maintaining the same level as a year earlier. However, after revisions, it will end up closer to the 1.3 million bo/d that was produced a month earlier. You will find the production profiles of these wells in the “Well quality” tab, where the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk formations have been preselected. Well productivity has improved each year since 2010, on average, but only very slightly in 2018. Recent wells peak at a rate of just over 600 bo/d, and, if they keep following the path of their predecessors, will fall to 20 bo/d after about 6 years on production. The final tab, “Top operators”, displays the production and location of the 5 largest oil producers. They all started 2019 below their highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4.5 thousand horizontal wells that began production in 2014, the busiest year so far, have recovered an average of 150 thousand barrels of oil, after a little over 4 years on production. During this time, they declined from 382 bo/d in their peak month, to 29 bo/d (93% decline). The following image was taken from a dashboard in ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional):   Here you can see the production from the top 8 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford (click on the image for a high-resolution version). It shows that most counties in the Eagle Ford are well off their peak production, but Karnes is still close. In contrast, activity in Burleson County, further to the northeast, has been picking up, albeit from a small base. Early next week we will have a new post on the Permian, followed by one on the Haynesville. On Tuesday, at noon EST, we will host another show on the ShaleProfile channel at enelyst. This time we will take a closer look at the major shale gas basins in the US. I hope to see you there!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LhTKVi   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Marcellus (PA) – update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,788 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania fell by 1% m-o-m to 18.1 Bcf/d, after setting a new record in January. Compared with a year earlier, this was just over 2 Bcf/d higher. An important reason behind the recent highs is that well productivity has continued to improve, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 748 wells that started in 2017 are on a path to recover more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, on average, more than double the amount that was recovered by wells that started 5 years earlier. As in many basins, proppant loadings have increased significantly in the past few years. In 2012 wells were completed with about 4.3 million pounds of proppants, on average. By the end of last year, this number was close to 18 million pounds. Almost all leading operators started the year with record production (“Top operators”). EQT, which bought Rice Energy, is the largest producer with 3.5 Bcf/d of production in February. However, as both entities are still reported separately, it now comes 4th in the ranking. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain year. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that newer wells are on a trajectory to recover more than 10 Bcf on average, before they have declined to a level of 100 Mcf/d. If you group the wells by quarter (using the “Show wells by” selection), the wells are sorted and averaged by quarter instead, which allows you to see more granularity and recent data. It also reveals that the 195 wells that started in Pennsylvania in the 4th quarter last year had a remarkably good start, recovering 1 Bcf on average in the first 3 months on production. We were happy to see that Trent Jacobs, from the JPT, wrote an excellent article about the other major shale gas basin, the Haynesville, last week, and that he used our analytics service for that: New Operators, Well Designs Drive Record Gas Production in Haynesville. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by updates on the Permian and the Haynesville Basin next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J1aQnD   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

North Dakota – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,527 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through February. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota fell in February by 5% m-o-m to 1.34 million bo/d. As is common in the winter months, few new wells started production (64), and more wells were shut-in. Gas production also saw a drop, but the gas oil ratio continued to rise; now 2 Mcf of natural gas is produced with every barrel of oil. Seven years ago this was only 1 Mcf per barrel. Initial well performance increased again in 2018, on average, but by a smaller amount than in the previous three years (see the “Well quality” tab). All 5 leading operators in North Dakota saw a decline in production m-o-m (“Top operators”), but they were still up y-o-y, with the exception of ConocoPhillips. This operator reduced output by 20% in February.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 wells that started in Q3 2017, represented by the light green curve, had the best initial performance. These wells peaked at 719 bo/d, and after 1.5 years on production they recovered 219 thousand barrels of oil, on average. Currently they are producing at a rate of 175 bo/d. Although the wells that began production between 2008 and 2011 had a less impressive start than more recent wells, on average, they also had a smaller decline rate. It appears that they will beat at least some of the later vintages in ultimate recovery, even if you correct for the fact that some of these wells have been refractured.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which has also released February production data some time ago. Of course, this data has already been available in our subscription services a day after it was published. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2IQ9ps0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

 

Why Tripoli must fall

The only safe outcome for Libya and Libya’s contribution to the international oil market is for Tripoli to fall to General Haftar.                 The absence of any Tripoli based central government control of the oil producing regions of Libya, far from the capital, led to an opportunity for general Haftar to expand his influence by creating and maintaining stability in those areas. The whole country is dependant on those oil producing regions for its foreign income and relies on general Haftar to keep the oil flowing. Once General Haftar attacked Tripoli he effectively lit the bridge on fire behind him and more importantly behind the whole country. If Haftar is defeated in Tripoli and his military capabilities are reduced enough or eliminated then the stabilizing force on the oil producing regions will also likely disappear, creating a vacuum which will be filled by much less pleasant characters waiting for an opportunity to seize control.                 Many people seemed surprised when Trump tweeted out his support for general Haftar, I however was not. Any opposition to Haftar is effectively an opposition to about a million barrels a day of production, production Trump will be relying on when he imposes sanctions on Iran.                 Watch Libya carefully, if Haftar loses then the likely consequence will be attacks by rebel groups on oil installations and a subsequent drop in production or at least a meaningful risk premium on whatever production is maintained.  Alex Lindsay:                 Alex is an energy industry technical expert with experience in most areas of oil and gas upstream operations and a keen interest in oil market analysis. A civil engineer by education and a driller by passion, always on the look out for grey and black swans in the energy market. The views expressed in any of Alex’s articles reflect the sentiment of his current portfolio.