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  1. These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 111,702 horizontal wells in 12 US states, through March 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 11.1 Gbo and 128 Tcf. Arkansas, which we’ve recently added to our data platform, is included as well. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag for many horizontal wells. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services.

    US_March_2019_Graph01.png

    Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards

    Shale oil production in these states grew by 1.5 million bo/d last year to over 6.8 million bo/d, as is visible in the graph above. Although preliminary data has the first few months of 2019 down a little, I expect that March set another record, after revisions.

    There are some more incredible numbers; the 12 thousand wells that were completed last year contributed almost 4 million bo/d to this total in December (visible in the tooltip on the light-blue area). But their initial decline was steep, and these wells were ‘only’ producing 3 million bo/d in March this year. In order to maintain the current production level, every month a decline of about 350 thousand bo/d has to be filled.

    Gas production from these wells has grown steadily, and in March topped 61 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to gas).

    In the “Well quality” tab the production profiles of all the horizontal wells in the major tight oil basins are selected. After many years of major improvements in well productivity, there appears to be a slow-down in the last 2 years. The wells that started production last year are on a trajectory to recover less than 10% more in the first 12 months, on average, than the wells that began in 2017.

    The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG operated more than 600,000 bo/d of capacity in March, more than double the number 2.

    The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

    US_March_2019_Graph02.png

    This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

    Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which has just released May production data. Our data and analytics subscribers can now access this data in our services.

    Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below.

    • FracFocus.org
    • Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
    • Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
    • Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
    • Montana Board of Oil and Gas
    • New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
    • North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
    • Ohio Department of Natural Resources
    • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
    • Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
    • Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining
    • Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
    • West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
    • West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
    • Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission

     

    Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://bit.ly/2XVwFZD

    Follow us on Social Media:

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  2. Covered up the deal to buy in BRENT and WTI. I didn’t twitch with BRENT and closed at take profit almost at the top. In WTI I decided to play around buy-sell intraday and got a hemorrhoid on my ass. I calculated the intermediate peak incorrectly and closed the deals BUY with profit but not very nice. The SELL deal closed after a drawdown, albeit with a profit. Now I look at the south

    2019-07-08_22-27-59.png

  3. The full article is here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/

    "This writer has warned that world oil demand is sluggish and imprecise with only references to legacy guesswork that the developing world plus China demand will support prices long term or forever. Yet, world oil consumption has increased only 5 percent in the last 10 years.  

    OPEC, with Saudi Arabia as its leader, has expired as the world administrator of the price of crude oil. At its December meeting in Austria, Qatar quit after nearly 70 years and announced concentration in LNG production and world export as the existing market leader.

    OPEC emerged with a serious factional split between OPEC original and OPEC with Russia. There would have been no agreement without Russia and its old Russian Federation members as producers. Moscow is the new world oil price-setter indirectly while OPEC Original becomes a collaborator in cartel for now. Simply put, Saudi Arabia no longer is the “residual supplier” alone.

    The production roll-back of 1.2 barrels per day by both “OPEC” is not enough for “balance” supply and demand for world crude oil.  It is being tested daily by commodity traders. In a briefing to New Mexico independent and small producers before the meeting in Austria, this writer warned that 1.7 million b/d was needed for balancing stabilization. Without that size of a production and export reduction, the average price of WTI oil in 2019 will average $50 per barrel.

    Nearing 12 million b/d and over the Permian producers voluntarily will be required by this price to revise capital spending and place production into DUC (non-completions) and storage. There is doubt that the export of tight or shale oil would continue if the Brent price falls lower and loses its premium over WTI. A net cutback of Permian between 500,000 to 750,00 b/d should be a non-OPEC response to an oil glut even more serious than 2014.

    Saudi Arabia is untouched as an American strategic ally in confronting Iran in the Middle East as a hegemonic threat."

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    BM
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    the press seems to be just a bunch of parrots that do not do their due dilagence ....just go to the texas railroad commision......which collect the royalties and taxes and you can see the  correct production numbers .....always  3 to 400 thousand  per day less than what is reported in the press .....wow .....are we up here getting hoodwinked ......

  4. Moscow, Russia, May 13, 2019.

    As the situation with the quality of oil transported from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba oil pipeline is gradually improved, financial issues have come to the fore. Or, more precisely, the amount this accident will cost Russia has become of great concern.

    On May 11, 2019, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko reported that Belarus had lost an enormous amount of money; in particular, it had not received any profit, currency earnings, or transit. A. Lukashenko said the estimated loss of hundreds of millions of dollars was not far from the truth. Vedomosti cites the possible amount of losses on May 13, 2019, as being in the range of $271.3 million to $435.3 million.

    The main components of the damage are the loss of transit profits, the loss of oil refining profits, the cost of cleaning, and, possibly, the replacement and repair of damaged equipment.

    Loss of Oil Transit Profits

    In 2018, the transit fee for 1 ton of Russian oil via Belarus in the direction of Poland, Germany, and Ukraine was US $0.84/100 km. The length of the Druzhba oil pipeline in the territory of Belarus is 1900 km (i.e., the payment for the entire route is US $15.96/ton). Different sources have discussed different oil transit volumes for 2018: the volume is about 48.9 million tons according to Transneft and 58.8 million tons according to Gomeltransneft Druzhba. That is, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s profits could amount to $780.4 million to $938.5 million for transit in 2018. If the tariff and the volume of transit remain the same, Gomeltransneft Druzhba’s lost profits for 14 days could range from $29 million to $35 million.

    The Russian Ministry of Energy expects the situation with the quality of oil in the Druzhba pipeline to normalize in the 2nd half of May 2019. In this case, normalization entails cleaning one run of the pipeline in each of the main export destinations. As a result, the pipeline throughput capacity will decrease. According to Gomeltransneft Druzhba estimates, the throughput capacity of the Druzhba pipeline may be reduced to 40 million tons/year after the accident. As a result, the company will transit 8.9 million to 18.8 million fewer tons of oil in 2019 than in 2018 (equal to a loss of $142 million to $300 million).

    Loss of Oil Refining Profits

    The poor quality of oil has forced the Mozyr Oil Refinery and the Naftan Oil Refinery to reduce their production of oil products. According to Belneftekhim, on May 11, 2019, the Mozyr Oil Refinery started to refine oil the quality of which meets the standard. By that time, Naftan was still suffering from a reduced load because the oil transit via the uncontaminated Surgut–Polotsk pipeline is insufficient for the optimal load of the plant. The damage amounted to US $100 million of lost profits.

    Losses Due to Equipment Damage

    The Mozyr Oil Refinery almost immediately claimed that equipment had been damaged. The management of the company said the equipment was damaged due to the high content of organochlorine — which has a high corrosive activity — in the incoming oil. Failures of a number of heat-exchange tubes of the HK-105 air cooler consisting of 6 sections were revealed at unit LK6U No. 2 (the primary distillation unit) of section C-100 on April 20, 2019. According to experts’ estimates, such tubes cost 3.5 million rubles each (a total of US $323 thousand). An independent expert investigation with the involvement of the Belarusian and Russian parties is necessary for an objective assessment of the damage to the equipment.

    Is the Damage Recoverable?

    The amount is staggering, and the issue of compensation will require serious discussion. However, not everything is as critical as it seems at first glance. Interfax, citing its sources, said that most of Belarus’s losses from contaminated oil in the Druzhba pipeline at this stage are not irrecoverable. The lost transit and under-utilization of the refinery will be rectified as the delivery schedule gets caught up with by the end of 2019. Possible damage to the refinery equipment would be the most serious damage, but it will take time to assess the situation.

    Moreover, the issue of the poisonous oil which is still on the territory of Belarus remains unresolved.

    Background

    What Happened

     On April 19, 2019, Belneftekhim complained about a deterioration in the quality of the Russian Urals supplied to Belarusian refineries via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Almost immediately, it became clear that this referred to the pollution of oil with organochlorine, which is a chlorine compound released during distillation. The polluted oil has damaged the equipment of the Mozyr Oil Refinery in Belarus. Belarus had to stop the export of light oil products to Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic countries; Europe had to stop importing oil from the Druzhba. Oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline, which accounts for up to 8% of the EU’s annual imports, has reached the level of interstate relations between Russia and Belarus and has raised the price of oil throughout the world. As of April 13, the main channel for oil export from Russia to Poland and Germany is still completely paralyzed, but the first success of cleaning the Ukraine-Hungary minor southern string has been achieved.

    What is the Druzhba?

    The Druzhba oil pipeline, built in the 1960s with the support of the Volga region oil fields, was one of the main integration projects of the USSR with the countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. The Druzhba remains an important supplier of oil to Europe; refineries in Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, and the Czech Republic still depend heavily on this pipeline. The Druzhba transits about 65 million tons of oil per year, which is a quarter of Russia’s total exports. About one-third of this oil is refined in Belarus, and almost all the remainder is received by the EU.

     

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    Khaled Syfullah
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    I am an enthusiastic person who check the prices of oil and gas regularly. I also check the variation of oil prices over time and do some market analysis related research.

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       The only safe outcome for Libya and Libya’s contribution to the international oil market is for Tripoli to fall to General Haftar.

                    The absence of any Tripoli based central government control of the oil producing regions of Libya, far from the capital, led to an opportunity for general Haftar to expand his influence by creating and maintaining stability in those areas. The whole country is dependant on those oil producing regions for its foreign income and relies on general Haftar to keep the oil flowing. Once General Haftar attacked Tripoli he effectively lit the bridge on fire behind him and more importantly behind the whole country. If Haftar is defeated in Tripoli and his military capabilities are reduced enough or eliminated then the stabilizing force on the oil producing regions will also likely disappear, creating a vacuum which will be filled by much less pleasant characters waiting for an opportunity to seize control.

                    Many people seemed surprised when Trump tweeted out his support for general Haftar, I however was not. Any opposition to Haftar is effectively an opposition to about a million barrels a day of production, production Trump will be relying on when he imposes sanctions on Iran.

                    Watch Libya carefully, if Haftar loses then the likely consequence will be attacks by rebel groups on oil installations and a subsequent drop in production or at least a meaningful risk premium on whatever production is maintained. 

    Alex Lindsay:

                    Alex is an energy industry technical expert with experience in most areas of oil and gas upstream operations and a keen interest in oil market analysis. A civil engineer by education and a driller by passion, always on the look out for grey and black swans in the energy market. The views expressed in any of Alex’s articles reflect the sentiment of his current portfolio.

  5. More and more companies in the oil industry are now going eco-friendly. Preserving the planet is everyone’s responsibility and oil companies are no exception. In fact, with the governments all around the world raising the bars for lower emissions and the use of renewable sources, keeping up the pace with the global sustainability trend is a must. Luckily, there are quite a few ways oil companies can make their operations greener and less harmful. Here are seven of these that are really worth taking a look at.

    jvLVG5J.jpg

    Reducing freshwater use

    Water is the element the oil industry simply can’t operate without. It’s used to cool the drills and remove dirt or rock debris. Hundreds of millions of barrels of freshwater end up being used on a daily basis and in order to preserve the environment that number needs to be reduced. Even though up to 95% of the water used in the oil industry is recycled, it’s still very important to rethink the extraction process and reduce freshwater use even more.

    Relying on solar energy

    There’s no need to say that oil companies rely on energy to keep their operations running. However, when going green, it’s extremely important to reduce energy use to a minimum. That’s why we see homeowners and small businesses installing solar panels on their roofs. When it comes to the oil industry, companies such as BP are creating investment funds that are to be used on producing clean energy for their operations. Therefore, we can expect to see oil companies connecting with solar producers and relying on solar energy more than ever before.

    Creating 3D images

    3D technology has changed many industries and oil companies can rely on it to make their operations more efficient. The way this works is that they can create 3D images of the oil wells they’re drilling and use those images to make more accurate decisions. Moreover, they can utilize 3D images to eliminate any operational inefficiencies and come up with backup plans for their operations. By doing this, they can still produce the same amounts of oil but using less energy and resources along the way.

    Reducing gas and fluid leaks

    The process of drilling can result in gas and fluid leaks and developing methods for managing them is critical. Luckily, the development of new drilling techniques has resulted in both improved waste management and reduction of potential leaks while drilling. More and more oil companies now implement closed-loop systems that allow them to stay in control of their impact on the environment. Besides this, the use of quality oilfield equipment can help both onshore and offshore operators reduce the risk of gas and fluid leaks.

    CgNj14g.jpg

    Using advanced drilling techniques

    Not so long ago, oil companies had to drill at big depths in order to collect oil. But now, engineers have come up with techniques that allow these companies to drill smaller holes and still get the same results. Not only this but innovative drilling techniques also help them reduce noise and produce less waste when drilling. The way these new techniques works is that oil wells are being extended horizontally, resulting in less disturbance to the surface.

    Collecting more data

    According to some reports, companies in the oil industry only run at 77% of their true potential. This means that if more data is collected and changes are made in their approach, they could essentially reduce their energy use even more. On top of this, they could also end up reducing the amount of waste they produce. By making most of the data they collect, oil companies could also prevent accidents that occur at their rigs and create a safer working environment for their employees.

    Going paperless

    Just like with most other industries, a large amount of documentation in the oil industry is printed every day. With the Cloud technology allowing companies to store documents on the web, the amounts of paper oil companies need could easily decrease. By moving from paper to electronic systems, these companies can help save trees and eliminate human errors. Not to mention that they could save time it takes to file papers and help their employees get more work done. The use of smartphones and tablets can help eliminate the need for paper even more.

    The trend of going green is increasing and we can finally say we’re moving towards a more eco-friendly future. With the implementation of the right techniques and technologies, companies in the oil industry can play their part and help preserve the planet.

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    Waiting on uplisting to nasdaq, financing on the way 

  6. TODAY'S INVESTMENT GOAL:

     

    How to achieve high Internal Rates of Return, (IRR), with a properly structured transaction based on existing oil and gas production … without the market risk of most oil and gas investments.  Can this be done?

     

    Requirements to achieve the strategy and returns for discussion:

    • Buy production at a reasonable discount

    • Evaluate the production as to the operator’s capability to deliver what is purchased

    • Hedge the acquired oil/gas to eliminate market risk

     

    Requirement #1

     

    Acquire production at a discount

     

    The niche is the small to medium sized producer that has found development capital difficult to raise due to banking reserve requirements after the oil/gas price crash of 2014-2018. 

    Deal with producers that have existing PDP production that can be leveraged and provide the capital to improve it.

     

    The oil is ‘rented’ for a term under a delivery schedule obviating the risks of onerous working interest structures, joint venture follies, drilling and equipment issues and any assortment of the usual risks.  The investor is not an oil company…

     

    Oil Company Benefits: 

    • Not an interest bearing loan, a footnote to the balance sheet

    • Non-recourse

    • Zero equity take-out, the company parts with none to the investor

     

    Requirement #2                         

    • Evaluate the operator’s capability to deliver

    • The existing production is evaluated by a major engineering firm.  They deliver a comprehensive report regarding the ability of the oil company to meet their delivery obligations for the length of the term.

    • The amount of oil purchased varies based on the capital needs of the company. 

    • Oil/Gas is delivered on a stated monthly schedule, that matches the decline curve of the production. 

    • The investor becomes part of the division order to secure repatriation of the invested amount, satisfying the delivery contract.

    Requirement #3

    • Hedge the acquisition to avoid market risk

    • The desire is to avoid all market risk… a put is purchased on every barrel of oil bought, matching exactly with the delivery schedule.   

    What are the risks?

     

        1. Market: Risk Factor – NONE

    Eliminated due to hedging

         2Counter party on the hedge: Risk Factor – MINIMAL 

    Reduced by using top credit firms. 

        3.  Delivery: Risk Factor – MINIMAL

    Reduced by quality engineering during due diligence.

        4.  Environmental and Title: Risk Factor – NONE

    One of the top oil and gas law practices in the country prepares the review of title and environmental risks.

        5.  Character: Risk Factor – MINIMAL

    Extensive background and credit record of the operator and producer is performed and evaluated. 

    In Conclusion:

    Investor Benefits:

     

    • The capability to have a high IRR, (much higher than most oil companies make historically).

    • The investor has no downside market risk and can structure the transaction so they have upside profit potential.

    • The investor has no operating expense, is not subject to being over-operated, has no equipment, will never get a cash call.

    • The returns available via this structure are generous as to IRR’s, much higher than other investments with similar risk profiles.

     

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    Brexiters hit back at Tusk for commenting that they deserve a special place in Hell for Brexit happening without a deal. Welsh first minister says it would be a catastrophe for Wales if Brexit happens without a plan. Nearly 5 m British and EU people could be stuck in Limbo if Brexit happens without a deal, though Brexiters hit back saying it's  an insult to 17.4 m who voted for Brexit and want apology from Tusk.

  7.  

    Beginning of the New Year 2019 saw the Chinese President Xi Jinping  belligerence towards Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (RoC). President Xi Jinping proclaimed that Taiwan unification must be the ultimate goal of any discourse regarding its future and laid out unyielding position that use of force is not ruled out should Taipei asserts full independence. This is not the first time that China openly declared its intention on Taiwan. In December 1995, Chinese officials asked US Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Nye directly what would the US do if China attacked Taiwan. Nye’s response was: “We don’t know and you don’t know. It would depend upon circumstances.”

    Beijing considers Taiwan( Formosa) as a breakaway province. RoC is self-governed but it has never formally announced independence from Mainland. The Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen had made it clear that the island nation would never consider reunification with China under the terms offered by Beijing. United States lent its weight behind Taipei by sending guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell and the fleet replenishment oiler USNS Walter S.Diehl through Taiwan Strait. It has further heightened tensions between the US and China. Meanwhile, US Pacific Fleet spokesperson Lieutenant Commander Tim Gorman told Cable News Network that it was a “routine Taiwan Strait Transit” under international law. On the other hand,Taiwan’s navy showcased its latest long-range surveillance drone as a push to counter China’s increasingly muscular rhetoric. Both these moves are symbolic in nature yet an attempt was made to convey to Beijing that Taiwan will not become Tibet of East Asia.

    Situated in the West Pacific between Japan and Phillippines, Taiwan is of strategic importance both for China and US. Taiwan (Formosa) lies at the edge of South China Sea shipping lanes. On the eve of Japan’s surrender in the World War-II, the State Department of US published a note on Taiwan which remarked: Strategic factors greatly influence the problem of Formosa. With the exception of Singapore no location in the Far East occupies such a controlling position. Regional powers like Japan in World War-II used Taiwan as a base both for defensive and offensive startegic purposes. It was a very important supply base for Japanese armies in South East Asia during their operations in Second World War. The US Navy commented in 1944 that: The island of Taiwan dominates the China coast and all coastwise shipping between Japan and South Eastern Asia. Its airfields and ports supported the movement of Japanese troops and supplies throughout the Southern theatres of action.

    For China, Taiwan is not just a matter of territorial sovereignty as it claims but is important from its security point of view. The control of Taiwan would help China’s operations in South China Sea. It can then more effectively assert and settle its territorial claims against Phillippines,Brunei,Vietnam etc. If Beijing succeeds in the unification of Taiwan then it will be able to use its deep water ports for its submarines to venture into Pacific Ocean. This will project China’s power in Pacific and will be a challenge to US naval assests. Beijing knows that if an external power occupies or make a base in Taiwan then it can cut-off China’s trade lines and a naval blockade could be a catastrophe for China’s rise as an economic and military power.

    When two elephants fight, it is the grass that is trampled. But some 23 million Taiwanese people do not want their fate to be that of grass. Taiwan’s loss of the China seat at the United Nations in 1971 was internationally the culmination of a slow erosion in support for the RoC. History reminds us of the destiny of Tibetans at a time when China was not so powerful economically and militarily. The question is can Taiwan defend itself against China if it really uses the force as claimed by Chinese President Xi Jinping? Today, the Chinese expansion of naval assets and capabilities in South China Sea will definitely alter the dynamics of war should it occur between People’s Republic of China and RoC. With UK trying to overcome Brexit imbroglio and France trying to put its own house in order, US may not get the full support of allies against China over Taiwan.

    Taiwan is not just a symbol of democracy at the gate of authoritarian Communist China which should be morally supported and militarily protected by Western world but its geographical location has made it a vital piece on global chess board of politics which is being played between US and China. The answer to the future of Taiwan lies in the womb of time but the clock is ticking for Taipei as China flexes its economic, diplomatic and military muscle.

     

     

     

  8. The Way You Receive Oil & Energy News Is Changing - For The Better.

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    We are excited to announce the launch of the Oilprice.com app.

    With instant access to news and industry data, the app has been designed with the Oilprice Community in mind to deliver to the minute stats and global insight at your fingertips.

    We are delighted to invite the Oilprice.com Community to be the first to download the free app. The app is now available, free of change, for download through the App Store and Google Play.
     
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    • Oil Prices: Get 200+ live global oil prices including WTI Crude & Brent Crude as well as OPEC blends, Canadian blends and US blends with price charts and comparison tools.
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  9. 1778522974_MediaSignpost.png.41ff869022d538a779ef1f0586c53a37.png

    Pt.3 The Media - Information sources - Electric/Hydrogen/Natural Gas Vehicles/ Nuclear Energy

    "Oh dear". This blog is about how to engage positively and effectively with the Media (TV, Radio, Press, Social Media, Bloggers. Vloggers) - mainstream, regional, local, international - from my own "mainstream" experience: e.g. BBC World Service.   

    The content I use will be controversial and often, given that this is a fossil fuels website, not pleasing to some. All the content is sourced and available in the mainstream Media.

    My consultancy work is giving Media advice to all industry sectors, face-to-face and via Skype - e.g. DHL. KIA Motors, Nord Stream, UK Independent Schools' Council. 

    The different Media, like individuals, will often choose the sources of information that reflect their wishes, values and bias.

    Thus, understanding the (often political) agenda of different Media before you or your company engages with them is extremely important. 

    Two key professional interests of mine are:

    1. Investigating why the Fossil Fuel Industry has never fought back against claims such as:

    - it is destroying the planet and that CO2 emissions are a Climate problem

    - "Big Oil" is throwing money to Climate Sceptic individuals and organisations; which is demonstrably not so, but is the result of a clever and long-term campaign by Greenpeace who targetted Exxon some years ago to label it "Evil Empire".

    2. The philosophy of science: especially Popper v Kuhn. 

    Posts will not normally be this long, but here are a few bullet points with regard to the above title and in relation to various comments:

     

    Fossil fuels:

    - yes, pollution is a factor and is increasingly being limited

    - CO2, however, is not a pollutant and is vital for life on Earth.

    - produced and are still producing the high standard of living we expect and want

    - are not subsidised everywhere, and the use of them is usually very highly taxed to provide national governments with a massive source of income for public services

    - there are different grades of all these fuels; varying down to low-level pollutants

    - even coal can be non-polluting: e.g. Professor Rosemary Falcon heads the Sustainable Coal Research Group at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits), Johannesburg (where Nelson Mandela studied law in the 1950's).

     

    LPG/LNG vehicles: I too drive an LPG vehicle and gas, having done so for years

     

    Renewables: 

    - are all subsidised and paid for by taxpayers either in their domestic energy bills and in the government subsidies - often both

    - produce less energy than was used to manufacture, erect and dismantle them after their short life (20-30 yrs). These three processes create large amounts of industrial pollution. 

     

    Global energy needs are expected to increase by 250% by 2050 as living standards rise. Estimates vary on global energy use and production - e.g. in 2017 renewables produced 8% of global energy according to BP. The most optimistic projections from the pro-renewables IEA estimate that by 2040 renewables will still represent only 30% of global energy production - and of that the biggest contributors will be Hydro-Electric Power and Waste, not the beloved wind and solar sources. Sources are contradictory and confusing because of inherent political (not scientific) agendas). 

    On average it seems that global energy use has risen by 150% in the last 20 years, and as a percentage of energy production the world is even more reliant on fossil sources than before.

     

    Solar panelscannot be simply buried in landfill because they contain toxic chemicals such as lead, cadmium, antimony; the glass is usually not pure enough to recycle; plastics are an integral part of construction.

    The problem of solar panel disposal “will explode with full force in two or three decades and wreck the environment”because of  "a huge amount of waste and they are not easy to recycle. Contrary to previous assumptions, pollutants such as lead or carcinogenic cadmium can be almost completely washed out of the fragments of solar modules over a period of several months, for example by rainwater.”

    Sources: 

    (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2104162/chinas-ageing-solar-panels-are-goingbe-big-environmental-problem)

    40-year veteran of US solar industry

     (https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/04/its-time-to-plan-for-solar-panel-recycling-inthe-united-states/)

    (https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article176294243/Studie-Umweltrisiken-durch-Schadstoffe-in-Solarmodulen.html)

    Research scientists - German Stuttgart Institute for Photovoltaics.

     

    The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2016 estimated there were  about 250,000 metric tonnes of solar panel waste in the world at the end of that year. IRENA projected that this amount could reach 78 million metric tonnes by 2050.

    (http://www.irena.org/publications/2016/Jun/End-of-life-management-Solar-Photovoltaic-Panels)

     

    Wind power is even less efficient than solar for all the production reasons above and is more unpredictable as an energy source; kills flying creatures to such an extent that in some areas it has become the "apex predator" where it takes out birds of prey. Nuclear towers do not create such carnage because they do not move and are highly visible.

     

    Nuclear Energy is the cleanest, safest and most reliable energy source we have. When there are problems they can certainly be on a large scale (Three Mile island, Chernobyl, Fukushima) but result in very few deaths. If you consider CO2 to be a major problem, nuclear energy produces none at all.

    Ironically, this year (2018) the floating wind turbine erected as at Fukushima as a symbol of renewal is being dismantled because of its high maintenance costs. 

    "The price tag to remove the ¥15.2 billion turbine, which has an output capacity of 7,000 kilowatts, is expected to be around 10 percent of the building cost. Studies on the two other turbines are due to conclude in fiscal 2018, but the study period is

    expected to be extended to seek any possibility of commercialization. ... Its utilization rate over the year through June 2018 was 3.7 percent, well below the 30 percent necessary for commercialization. The two other turbines, of different sizes, have utilization rates of 32.9 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively."

    Source: Japan Times

     

    Nuclear "waste" is in fact a resource and not to be feared!

    " ... fission waste does not migrate even where there is significant groundwater, and ... ancient waste had none of the multi-layer engineered safeguards that are now developed, nor the careful geological siting."

    " by far the biggest resource in radwaste is in the transuranics and unburnt uranium. This could be used to increase the energy available from nuclear fuel by several orders of magnitude using fast breeder reactors, but such use is no longer being pursued in many countries, including the UK ([which] used to be the world leader up until the early 1980s), as uranium is too cheap to make it economically attractive at present."

    Source: Rolls Royce expert and recipient of the Institute of Physics Nuclear Industry Group Lifetime Achievement Award

     

    And no, it can't be used to make a nuclear bomb; and there are much easier ways for terrorist groups to make the usual "dirty" bombs than trying to get hold of nuclear residue. It is calculated that there are about 120,000 cubic metres of nuclear waste in the world - i.e. not enough to fill a soccer stadium, since the start of the nuclear industry in the 1950's.

    Nuclear use is already part of our daily lives. We already use radio cobalt in irradiating food and medical supplies; strontium or plutonium for generators in space travel; americium in smoke detectors; tritium in emergency-exit signage; various radio isotopes are used to diagnose and treat diseases.  Soon it is expected that we will be able to split further uranium isotopes and all uranium's heavy metal derivatives. 

    Given that my first interest is helping you and your company to deal with the Media, mainstream and otherwise, it is important to judge your audience and then tailor your information to help them take it in. 

    My presumption so far here in this blog is that readers are well-informed, wish to be given reasons to reflect, think and debate civilly on what are very important matters affecting how we live. I also presume such readers are thinkers rather than activists. Trigger warning: further topics will include references to and buzz words such as coal, climate change, CO2, sea levels, non-AGW, geological time scales, IPCC, Greenpeace, Big Oil and the like.

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    IMPROVING ROI THROUGH TREND ANALYSIS is a hallmark of prudent financial analysts and CEO's, often leading to long, prosperous tenures. With rising sentiments surrounding the negative impacts of fossil fuels, and a reluctance of oil, gas and coal producers to recognize, let alone embrace global trends and zero emission synfuel technologies that could provide substantial market lead and much higher earnings for less cost, few if any industry CEO's today will still hold their title in 2-5 years, as only those firms offering fuel products which align with public sentimentl offered at a much lower price and cater to a changing political landscape will remain profitable.

  10. We where supposed to have a deal on Thursday with OPEC so what happened? If you found a good deal on a house, would you delay the closing? You would if you saw some problems with the deal.

    Well what kinds of problems do we have with OPEC cutting productions and why wasn't it made today, after all the whole world is waiting.

    For the prices to stop going into a free fall and hit my $34 target, they need to cut production, Saudi by about 2 Mill barrels and Russia by 300,000 barrels, or at least 200,000 barrels.

    Well Russia did not have an answer today? Why? Well lets see where Russia Oil fields are? 

    ת×צ×ת ת××× × ×¢××ר âªrussian oil fieldsâ¬â

    Well this looks like a very cold place, if im not mistaken it gets to -70 Celsius in the winter. Ok so whats the problem? If you live in Northern Canada, you know you need to not turn off your heat in the winter to your pipes wont freeze. Well guess what, Russia won't be able to cut production in the winter, and it will need to wait until temps are above freezing, maybe March / April 2019. 

    So that means Russia wont be able to cut, so why should the Saudis cut, so they will cut im comparison with Russias cuts, which wont be enough to stop the fall of Crude Prices.

  11. According to a new market report published by Credence Research “Global Offshore Wind Energy Market , by foundation type (Monopile, Jacket, Tripod, Floating), by Water Depth (shallow water [up to 29m deep], transient water [30-60m deep] and deep water [60m and above]) and by Geography (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Rest of the World) - Growth, Future Prospects and Competitive Analysis, 2017 – 2025,” the offshore wind energy market volume is expected to reach to 49,931.6 MW by 2025

    Browse the full offshore wind energy market, by foundation type (Monopile, Jacket, Tripod, Floating), by Water Depth (shallow water [up to 29m deep], transient water [30-60m deep] and deep water [60m and above]) and by Geography (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Rest of the World) – Market Growth, Future Prospects and Competitive Analysis, 2017 – 2025

    Market Insights

    Offshore wind energy (offshore wind power) is the conversion of wind’s kinetic energy into electrical energy. Uniform and high speeds of wind can be harnessed in offshore environment since it accounts to nil obstruction to wind force. Multiple windmills together constitute to a wind farm. These farms are constructed in the water bodies usually oceans to harvest the energy of wind and convert it into electrical energy.

    Browse the full report at https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/offshore-wind-energy-market

    The offshore wind installations reduces the impact on real estate as in onshore installations. Moreover, wind speed is uniform and consistent in offshore installations, which increases the efficiency of electricity generation. Thus, the offshore wind energy is highly attractive and more promising in terms of power generation and grid connections.

    Quote

    Some of the restraining factors of offshore wind installations are wind turbines are exposed to high humidity and salt contents, which affects service life of components due to corrosion, oxidation and increased repair and maintenance costs. In general, the offshore installation costs are much higher than onshore.  The repair maintenance and overhauling operations are also high cost and time consuming as it requires expensive marine operations involvement and are comparatively dangerous. The offshore wind farms operate at high speeds compared to onshore wind farms, hence offshore turbines are more susceptible to high rate of wear and tear, maintenance and repair of moving parts.

    In the early 2017, Denmark has come up with new recycling process of offshore wind turbine blades, made up of fiberglass. When the wind turbine is de-commissioned, the blades may fall off to the landfill area where it may take many years to decompose. The blades can now be recycled and applied as sound barriers of vehicular traffic along major roads.

    The key players, developers, suppliers and service providers are Siemens-Gamesa, MHI Vestas Wind Systems A/S, DONG Energy, VattenFall, E.on, GE Wind, Sinovel Wind Group Co. Ltd., Nordex S.E, China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Ltd, Alstom, Senvion Ltd., Clipper Wind power, and DOOSAN Heavy Industry & Construction.

    Key Trends:

    • Rising investor confidence in the offshore wind energy market. More financial institutions and Governmental agencies actively investing in the market for development of offshore wind farms.
    • Deployment of 8MW and above wind turbine in European and Chinese farms and its introduction in the respective countries for proposed offshore wind power projects

     

  12. Market Insights:

    Global leak detection system market is expected to gain momentum with growing pipeline network and increasing demand for fossil fuels. Advancement in technology has facilitated the pipeline operators to remote monitoring of pipeline operations. Global pipeline network is about 3.5 million kilometers which is responsible for movement of oil & gas products across the globe. Pipelines are considered to be the safest and the most efficient mode of transportation of hydrocarbons as they are hazardous in nature and any spillage or leakage can results in huge loss to the product owner as well as to the environment. Leakage is considered as the most common problem in pipeline operations which not only results in product loss but also can results accidents with huge potential to damage nearby environment. Recent accident happened in recent past such as explosion in gas pipeline in Minnesota, U.S., and eruption of natural gas pipeline in Nebraska in 2014 has bought in legislation for the pipeline carrying hazardous products to mandatory have leak detection system. Thus, global leak detection system market for oil & gas industry is anticipated to driven by factors such as increasing natural gas production, increasing trade of oil & gas products coupled with growing pipeline infrastructure and associated regulatory policies. However, volatile oil prices restricting cash flow of the oil producers which is likely have a negative impact on upcoming pipeline project which in turn is expected to restrain the demand for pipeline leak detection system in oil & gas industry.

    Quote

    The Global Pipeline Leak Detection System Market for Oil & Gas Industry has been estimated to be valued at US$ 2.1 Bn by the end of 2016, and is expected to reach US$ 3.2 Bn by 2023, expanding at a CAGR of 6.4% from 2016 to 2023.

    Competitive Insights:

    Global leak detection system market for oil & gas industry is segmented on the basis of technology, product type and geography. By technology, negative pressure wave segment is projected to be the most dominant segment due to easy installation along with low installation cost. Considering segment product type, the natural gas segment to be the largest segment over the forecast period (2016-2023) owing to increasing production of shale gas coupled with growing increasing number of gas based economies. The key players in the market are focusing on research & development of new technologies to enhance accuracy of their products.

    Pipeline Leak Detection System Market for Oil & Gas Industry

    Overall, global pipeline leak detection system market is projected to register significant growth over the forecast period (2016-2023).

    Key Trends:

    Merger & Acquisition
    Development of new technologies

  13. The purpose of the report is to illustrate the state of the market of Base Oil, to present actual information about the volumes of production, exports, imports, consumption and the state of the market, the changes that took place in 2017, and also, to build a forecast for the growth of the industry in the medium term until 2026.

    Browse here for full report: https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/base-oil-market

    Why was the report written?

    This report is the result of an extensive survey drawn from Credence Research’s exclusive panel of leading global market industry executives; it provides data and analysis on buyer investment, acquisition, and developments within the global market research. It includes key topics such as global Base Oil buyer expenditure and procurement behaviors and strategies and recognizes the threats and possibilities within the industry, economic outlook trends, and business confidence within global industry executives. Most secondary research reports are based on general industry drivers and do not understand the industry executives’ attitude and changing behaviors, creating a gap in presenting the business outlook of the industry; in an effort to bridge this gap, Credence Research created this primary research-based report by gathering the opinions of multiple stakeholders in the value chain of the global industry.

    What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

    Executives from the global industry anticipate an increase in levels of consolidation, with 55% of respondents projecting an increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in 2017.

    The report on the market of Base Oil contains:

    Analysis and forecast of Base Oil market dynamics;

    Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

    Analysis of exports and imports;

    Analysis of factors, leading the development of the Base Oil market;

    Assessment and forecast of Base Oil market development;

    Financial and business profiles of the leading companies in the Base Oil industry.

    Scope

    – Up to date working Base Oil data by major regions in the world, the forecast of planned capacity additions by 2026

    – The annual breakdown of capital expenditure spending on proposed Base Oil for the period 2018 to 2026

    – Planned Base Oil additions and capital expenditure spending by key countries and companies across the world

    – Planned capital expenditure spending on new Base Oil projects by region, key countries, and companies

    – Details of major planned Base Oil projects in the world up to 2026

    Also you can request us for sample in pdf with more details and graph:https://www.credenceresearch.com/sample-request/57908

     

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    The title of this article piece caught my ear when I was watching a debate that was held at the recent Bali Fintech conference, where the President of Indonesia made an outstanding speech that was appreciated by many members attending, he made one reference to the popular series "The Game of Thrones" where he said "Several great houses, great families, battle each other fiercely to seize control over the ‘Iron Throne'

    He also made the following statements:

    "Preventive excessive government interference too early in the process of innovation".

    "Give the innovative the confidence to experiment without having the fear of civil or criminal liability".

    A recent article published in the Jakarta Post in reference to geothermal, where Pak Prijandaru Effendi the chairman of the Indonesian Geothermal Association (API) dismissed the government's claims of the geothermal success story, where he said that this has needed more than three decades to succeed.

    In my opinion four very good statements, there is no doubt that regulations are holding back innovation and technology in many sectors of industry in the country including the exploration industry. There is no doubt that excessive government interference is holding back development and there is no doubt that the fear of being victimised because you have made a business decision which was not successful in terms of financial loss is helping to increase Indonesia's imports for oil and gas as well as delaying the geothermal development that Indonesia has so much potential for.

    Geothermal development does take time, on average from the early exploration stage to production can take eight years or more, in some cases it has taken 15 years, therefore taking credit for geothermal that is coming online today has taken many years of development as well as huge amounts of money, (much of which has been lost by the investor), is not correct. There are worrying signs that the targets set by the government for renewable energy will not be met, it is understood that this has been verbally stated that instead of 2025 it will now be 2030.

    It is fair to say that the government of Indonesia has not invested as it should have done in the natural resources that it has in its own backyard, the reliance of investors in the past is not what the future holds.

    Many of the geothermal power plants that have been developed have been in areas that shall I dare say easier to develop than several of the options that are available today, geothermal is a complex and difficult resource to develop, hence the reason that so many coal-fired plants have been and still continue to be developed, the cost difference of a coal-fired plant compared to a geothermal plant is substantial. Geothermal Development costs US$8 million per 1 MW (in comparison to US$2 - 3 million for coal) or approximately US$400 million for a mid-sized 50 MW plant.

    The four statements highlighted what is and is not happening in the geothermal, oil and gas industries, which is down to the people who are a part of the "Game of Thrones" in Indonesia. They are stopping what the President is saying should happen.

    There is also another added problem, which is supported by a comment from Fintech, "Geopolitics is becoming more important than energy", it certainly appears that way with the run-up to the election next April.

    I was in a recent meeting where I was told that the government's exploration budget for 2018 is 60 billion Rupiah (less for 2019), or US$4.1 million, this is a very small amount of money considering the cost of conventional exploration methods. We have heard so often that Indonesia needs to explore and it needs investment, but if you are only going to invest peanuts yourself, how will you attract other investors?

    Another person told me that it appears that Indonesia has lost the appetite for exploration, if this is the case, why are they complaining about the cost of importing oil to meets its daily demand?

    A recent regulation to lift the charges for oil and gas block data was made, this previously could cost up to US$80,000. The move is an attempt to attract more companies to bid in the upstream sector,

    This is an interesting development, but will it really attract more interest? As far as I am aware, the data that is available is normally of a poor quality and any investor will be taking a very high risk in bidding for any block based on this data. It is considered that the cost of US$80, 000 is very small and that investors would be willing to pay far above this sum if there was reliable data available. "The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of a low price is forgotten"

    Personally, I am not seeing that the government is looking at the real problem that is not attracting investors, scrapping the charge for oil and gas data is scratching the surface of what needs to be done, what needs to be done is simple, exploration with technology that is supported by conventional exploration methods. Knowing the full potential of any area is important. Giant, mature oil fields all have potential, hidden geothermal reservoirs also have potential, we just need to know where they are and what they contain.

    Why are they not developing areas that do contain large resources, such as one area in Lampung that contains one billion barrels of oil, or another area that is reported to have 40 billion barrels of oil? When a respected person mentioned these to me, I said, who is listening, he replied, “no one”. Business conducive regulations are needed, smart technology is needed, they both go hand in hand, this does not appear to be the case in Indonesia at this time.

    Technology and financing are two different sides of the coin. Technology providers are NOT supposed to bring financing, the Indonesian government is expecting both.

    This article was written by myself and was published in the Jakarta Post on Friday 16th of November 2018.

  14. The Petronas Dividend of RM 30 Billion has been in the Malaysia news lately. Here's an excerpt from an article yesterday:

    Pakatan MP questions need to use Petronas reserves for special dividend

    A Pakatan Harapan MP today questioned the rationale in using 36% of national oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s cash reserves for the special dividend of RM30 billion.

    Wong Chen (PH-Subang) pointed out that Petronas’ cash reserves, as of last year, stood at RM128 billion, and the profit after tax was RM46 billion.

    “This worries me because we know there is a huge possibility Malaysia will be stuck in the trade war between US and China.

    “If we use all the money now, the financial power of RM54 billion, we may run out of ‘financial bullets’ when the crisis really hits,” he said in the Dewan Rakyat when debating the Budget 2019.

    The RM30 billion special dividend is part of RM54 billion that Putrajaya is asking from Petronas next year.

    It will be utilised to fully settle the outstanding tax refunds estimated at RM37 billion — RM18 billion in income tax and RM19 billion in goods and services tax (GST).

    Wong stated that while he understood Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s anger and frustration in inheriting the financial woes of the previous administration, he was of the view that Parliament needs a guarantee that a special dividend of this nature cannot be repeated in next year’s budget.

     

    Yesterday, I had commented on LinkedIn a bit about this. Generally, my view is that if this is a one-off higher than normal dividend from Petronas, then it shouldn't be a problem. My concern is if this is an old crutch that is getting long in the tooth from decades-old age and too much reliance on Petronas to provide money.

    For some perspective, let me turn back the clock a couple years, when I interviewed Dr. Mahathir about Petronas in 2016. Here is an excerpt of my one-on-one interview:

    Interview with Former Petronas Advisor Dr. Mahathir Mohamad

    1651398719_TomKirkmanInterviewDrMahathir-1.thumb.jpg.3bb123714b14eb3ef8c3f23dca35855b.jpg

    Dr.  Mahathir bin Mohamad was the 4th Prime Minister of Malaysia. He held the post for 22 years from 1981 to 2003, making him Malaysia's longest-serving Prime Minister.

    After stepping down as Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir took on the role of Petronas Advisor in 2003.

    On March 11 2016, the Malaysian government terminated the services of Dr. Mahathir, due to a political dispute between former Prime Minister Mahathir and the current Prime Minister Najib Razak.

    The Prime Minister's Office said in a brief statement that the Cabinet had discussed the actions of Dr. Mahathir, and decided that since he was "no longer supporting the current Government, he should no longer hold any position related to the Government."

    On 30th March 2016, Dr. Mahathir was kind enough to agree to an interview with Oilpro Moderator Tom Kirkman, to discuss Petronas. ...

    Question:  In August 2015, the Petronas CEO told reporters that Petronas had RM 126 billion in cash reserves.
    And in January 2016, the Petronas CEO told reporters that Petronas had RM 88 billion in cash reserves.
    That's a RM 38 billion reduction in Petronas cash reserves in 5 months.
    What is your opinion on Petronas current cash reserves?

    Dr. Mahathir:  Well, Petronas is regarded by the government as some kind of cash cow.  When the government is short of money, or needs to have some investment, usually they pump it off on Petronas.  And currently, the government is really short of money.  They have mismanaged things, including borrowing huge sums of money.  So they are in deficit.  And what we do know is that they have been cutting back on budgets, by 20% last year, and again 20% this year.  

    I am told that Petronas was told to make up for the loss of government revenue.  And of course Petronas reply was that they need the money for their capex. They have to invest all the time.  I think the rumors are they were told “Look, you are a government company. You are 100% owned by the government. Whatever you earn belongs to the government.  You give the money to the government, then you can borrow.  If you need money, you can borrow.”

    It would seem that the government finds difficulty borrowing.  So, asking Petronas, which has more credit-worthiness, I think, is the way for them to borrow.
     

    Things have changed quite a bit since that interview in March 2016. Personally, I think Dr. Mahathir and Lim Guan Eng (the Finance Minister) and the new federal government are doing an overall great job in rescuing and repairing the country's financial mess, left behind by the previous administration.  Notably, working to clean up the mess of 1MDB.

    And I understand a stop-gap measure of increasing the Petronas Dividend this year to help alleviate the budgetary shortfall as the federal government works to pay down earlier commitments and reduce debt.  Again, cleaning up the financial nuclear fallout from 1MDB won't happen overnight.

    This time around, Petronas actually has sufficient cash reserves to pay a higher dividend. Compare that with the situation a couple years ago... here's another question and answer from my interview in 2016:

    Question: Petronas has recently stated that they may have to borrow money in order to pay their RM 16 billion dividend for 2016. Petronas originally wanted to pay only RM 9 billion in dividends for this year, but the government announced that Petronas was going to pay RM 16 billion in dividends for this year. About a month ago, Petronas announced that they will likely have to go in debt in order to pay the government dividend this year.  Do you have an opinion about that?

    Dr. Mahathir: Well, I think the government, as I said just now, is short of money. Petronas will have problems paying them more than what Petronas can afford. But the government is in such a desperate state, that they don’t care what happens to Petronas. As I said just now, Petronas can borrow money more than the government can borrow. So Petronas will have to cough up the amount of money that the government directs it to pay to the government.  

     

    Again, if this is a one-off higher than normal Dividend this year from Petronas, then it should be no problem. Next year, the dividend should be reduced, to allow Petronas to re-invest more in new Exploration & Production activities, both domestic and overseas.

     

    Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

     

    “I have always strenuously supported the right of every man to his own opinion, however different that opinion might be to mine.  He who denies to another this right, makes a slave of himself to his present opinion, because he precludes himself the right of changing it.”

    – Thomas Paine (1737-1809)

     

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    Twenty-plus years ago I lived in England, had a Sri Lankan boyfriend, an Israeli best friend who shared a flat with a Palestinian guy, and a Persian housemate. This is still my idea of multiculturalism. Yet 20 years later what I read and see about Europe -- and Turkey but that's a different question altogether -- suggests the multicultural model governments have been shoving down people's throats has begun to backfire and it is backfiring spectacularly.

    Take the hidden camera film about the encapsulated Muslim neighbourhoods in Paris. This is no spin and no fake news. I have a friend who lives and Paris and she has vouched for the genuineness of these neighbourhoods. There are similar places in Germany, too, if we are to believe none other than Angela Merkel, who said in an interview such encapsulated areas have no place in the German society. Ironic, given she put a lot of effort into taking migration to ridiculous levels.

    Then there's Denmark, where I saw (hopefully because I only had three days) multiculturalism still working, probably because the country, as far as I remember, limited its intake of economic (sic) refugees. There I saw people of various colors all smiling and friendly, as befits one of the happiest nations in the world. And then I saw a boy that eyed me suspiciously for several minutes until I felt extremely uncomfortable (I went out to smoke and forgot the keys to the Airbnb, okay? Don't tell anyone). That one single boy is new to the country, I'm sure. I really hope he won't look at this very typical Middle Eastern way at people in five years. Because he will have assimilated.

    Assimilation is the only sensible way of actually accomplishing multiculturalism that doesn't give rise to racist extremists. I will here quote Mr. Schwarz, an expat in a country neighbouring his home one, who, after 20 years here says "We" when he talks about the locals and "they" when he talks about his countrymen and countrywomen. The only way to have a decent life in a foreign country even one that is culturally close to your home one, is to assimilate, learn the language and the culture, and make it your own. This emphatically does not suggest you need to give up your own culture or religion. What it does suggest is that if you want to live in a society you need to become a part of it, rather than an appendage that feeds from a society, operates in it, but remains a separate part of that society and, ultimately, does not contribute to the greater good. That's what encapsulation is all about and to me, it is the one single negative aspect of the recent migration waves that can bring the whole European Union down.

    How did we get here? We need to thank PC gone mad and congenital human stupidity. The more you force a group of people to accept something new and unfamiliar as normal and familiar without giving them enough time to process this thing, the more they will clench their teeth and refuse to eat it. The pendulum, as I like to say, always swings. The further it swings into one direction, the further it will then swing into the opposite one. it's just one of these laws that can't be violated. And personally, I believe Western Europe is being so stupid because they have no group memory of the Ottoman empire ruling over them. We do although we won't continue to have this memory for long as history is being rewritten. Literally.