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About this blog

Visualizing US shale oil & gas production

The blog contains still images from interactive dashboards available on each blog post.
To follow the instructions detailed in every post, use the interactive dashboards. You can also explore the dashboards to uncover different insights and trends.

Entries in this blog

US – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March, from 88,617 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.6 Gbo and 94.2 Tcf. The latest data for Ohio, which just released Q1 production figures, is also included. Only data for West Virginia is not up-to-date, and therefore this state has been deselected in most views.   With the surge in drilling and completion activity since early 2017 both oil and gas production from these horizontal wells reached new records in recent months, at over 5 million bo/d and 50 Bcf/d. Current production is heavily dependent on recent completions, as the decline rates are high; for example, oil production from wells that started producing before 2015 is contributing just 23% of current production, as shown by the top of the dark green area in the above graph. Between the basins there are major differences, with some setting records each month (Permian, Appalachia, Niobrara), while others have not fully recovered yet (Eagle Ford, Haynesville), and a few appear to be in terminal decline (Barnett, Granite Wash). The major underlying reason for these differences is changing well productivity, which can be analyzed in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Note that the oily basins have been preselected in the ‘Basin’ filter, which you can manually adjust.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The major increase in initial well performance  in the past 2 years is clearly visible here. Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released May production. Next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, come visit our booth. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/16/us-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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US - update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 97,332 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through September 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.7 Gbo and 106 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag. September production data for New Mexico is rather incomplete, with over 100 thousand bo/d still missing. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards   After all revisions are in, oil production from these horizontal wells should come in well above 6 million bo/d for September. The ~8,000 wells that started in the first 9 months of 2018 will then already have contributed ~3 million bo/d in September. Never before in the history of US shale was so much new production capacity added in 9 months. As the total decline of older wells (<2018) was over 2 million bo/d (as shown by the top of the light blue area) in this period, the actual growth rate was a little below 1 million bo/d. If you switch to natural gas (using the ‘Product’ selection), you’ll see that gas production from the same wells never really experienced a drop, and grew by ~15 Bcf/d in the past 2 years to 55 Bcf/d (excluding WV) in September.   Initial well productivity grew steadily over the past 10 years (‘Well quality’ tab), but the rate of improvements appears to have slowed down recently.   You’ll find the status of the more than 100,000 horizontal wells that have been drilled in the ‘Well status’ tab. Only 1% of these wells have been plugged and abandoned so far.   The final dashboard gives an overview of the largest operators. EOG is well in the lead, with around 0.5 million bo/d of operated production capacity. Its September production numbers for New Mexico are highly incomplete, so the final drop should be ignored. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4,300 wells that started production in 2011 (represented by the red curve) peaked at a rate of 273 bo/d, and they have now declined to 22 bo/d, recovering almost 150 thousand barrels of oil in the meantime (all average numbers). The 5,300 wells that started 5 years later (2016 – light brown curve), peaked at 517 bo/d, and they already recovered the same amount of oil within 22 months, on average. They are on a trajectory to do roughly another 100 thousand barrels of oil, before having declined to a similar production rate of ~20 bo/d. More granular and recent data will be visible after grouping these wells by the quarter or month in which they started production.   Next month we will be at the NAPE summit in Houston. Come visit our booth if you have the chance! Before the NAPE we plan to start offering the Basic version of our ShaleProfile Analytics service. For just a very small annual fee ($624 = $52/month) you can already enjoy all the benefits that this service offers beyond the free blog here, such as maps with the exact location of these wells, full-screen dashboards, and with always access to the latest data.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released November production data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HgzW2F   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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US - update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May, from 91,810 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.9 Gbo and 98.6 Tcf. Their total oil production was close to 5.5 million bo/d in May, or more than half of total US oil supply, while gas production topped 50 Bcf/d.   If you group this total oil production by ‘production level’, using the ‘Show production by’ selection, you will find that in May ~4 million bo/d came from just ~12 thousand wells that each produced over 100 bo/d. All other wells combined (~80k) produced just the remaining 1.5 million bo/d, although that also includes gas wells.   The ‘Well status’ tab shows the status of all these wells over time. Looking at the ‘First flow’ status, or wells that have just started production, reveals that since the 2nd half of 2017 between 800 and 1,000 new horizontal wells were brought into production each month (taking into account upcoming revisions), versus less than 600 in 2016.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. As the curves show, well productivity improved each year since 2012. The ~5.3 thousand horizontal wells that started in 2016 recovered each on average 134 thousand barrels of oil in the first 18 months, and they are on a trajectory to recover one more time that amount, before declining to level of ~20 bo/d.   Early next week I will have a new post on North Dakota. We are still handing out free trial accounts for our ShaleProfile Analytics service, which covers more dashboards and up-to-date data. If you’re interested, you can apply for a trial here. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CJiam9     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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US - update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 93,991 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through June. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.1 Gbo and 101.4 Tcf. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards In just one and a half year, production from these wells grew by more than 1.5 million bo/d and 10 Bcf/d. Operators increased the pace of drilling and completion activity, and as the ‘Well quality’ tab shows, average well performance also slightly increased from 2016. Wells were completed with longer laterals on average, and proppant loadings increased even more. You can try out our ShaleProfile Analytics service for more details on these trends, e.g. on an operator/basin basis.   The two largest shale oil operators, EOG and ConocoPhillips, set new records in June (‘Top operators’ tab).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. You can see that wells have been tracking steadily higher recoveries over the past years. Since the end of 2016, the pace of improvements appears to have slowed down.   Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released production figures for August. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CJZ2DJ     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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US - update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 95,093 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through July. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.3 Gbo and 102.9 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil and gas production from horizontal wells kept setting new records through the first 7 months of this year. The 5,600 new producers contributed ~2.2 million bo/d and 10.4 Bcf/d in July, versus 4,600 new producers in the same period last year (which contributed 1.6 million bo/d and 9.1 Bcf/d in July last year).   The steady increases in well productivity between 2012 and 2017 are clearly visible in the 2nd tab, ‘Well quality’, where the oily basins have been preselected. Almost 12 thousand wells were completed in these plays in 2014, more than in any other year, which is why this curve is drawn with the greatest thickness. The final tab shows the production and location of the wells operated by the largest operators, as measured by their cumulative production in the past decade. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. You can see in the graph above that the 7,600 wells that started in 2017 recovered on average almost 100 thousand barrels of oil in the first 8 months on production, while declining from 600 bo/d to 274 bo/d. More recent and granular data can be seen by grouping the wells by the quarter or month in which production started.   The 2nd tab, ‘Cumulative production ranking’, ranks all counties with horizontal production based on cumulative oil production. McKenzie and Mountrail counties, both in North Dakota, are in the lead, but Karnes (Eagle Ford) and Weld (Niobrara) are catching up on the number 2. Early next week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which will soon release September production data. In our ShaleProfile Analytics service we keep all data up-to-date on a daily basis, and for most states we already have August or even September production in. If you’re interested, you can request a demo or trial here. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2DBiiE9     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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US - update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 96,273 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.5 Gbo and 104 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oil production from horizontal wells in these states grew by almost 2 million bo/d in the 2 years through August. This growth rate was similar as in the boom years of 2013-14. The Permian was responsible for most of this gain, which you’ll see if you show the production data by ‘Basin’ (using the ‘Show production by’ selection). Natural gas production has been setting new records as well during those 2 years and was above 47 Bcf/d in the basins we cover.   The steady increases in well productivity are shown in the ‘Well status’ tab, where all the oily basins are preselected. The horizontal wells that started in 2018 are so far closely tracking the performance of the ones from 2017.   In the final tab you will find the production histories and location of the largest shale operators. We’ve made a change in this dashboard; now the operators are ranked by their total production in the past 12 months (and not by their total historical production). This makes especially a big difference in the Permian, where several operators have recently increased production at a rapid rate. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Since about 2010 wells have been tracking ever larger ultimate recoveries. The ~1,300 horizontal wells that started in Q4 of 2016 appear so far among the best performers; they have recovered on average 160 thousand barrels of oil and are now at a production rate of ~110 bo/d (from a peak rate of 570 bo/d). These are of course averages, and there are major differences between basins, operators and formations. Major factors behind the changes in well performance are the increases in lateral lengths and the larger frac jobs. In our online analytics service, it is possible to normalize for these factors. Feel free to request a demo, in which we will discuss your interests, or 10-day trial. We sometimes get the question about what we do with wells when they stop producing. In these cases we keep adding 0 production records, to make sure that wells don’t suddenly drop out of the equations, which would lead to a survivorship bias. You can verify this, as the exact well count is shown in the tooltips that appear above the production profiles (this is also represented in the thickness of the curves). Tomorrow at 9:30am EST we will again host a show at enelyst, in which we’ll take a closer look at the Niobrara basin. Join us in the ShaleProfile channel.   Early next week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release October production data by the end of this week. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2EbfM6U   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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US - update through April 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through April, from 90,168 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.7 Gbo and 96.7 Tcf. The number of well completions in the 2nd half of 2017 was about 60% higher than the average level in 2016, which explains most of the rise in output over the past year. Average initial well productivity in the oily basins did not change much over this period, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab.   EOG, with an operated production capacity of almost half a million bo/d, is the largest shale oil producer in the US (see the ‘Top operators’ overview).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started.   By changing the ‘Show wells by’ selection to ‘Quarter of first flow’, you’ll see more recent and granular data. It also reveals that since Q4 2016, the average production profile hasn’t changed as much as before, as noted before. The 1,323 horizontal wells that started in Q4 2016 have recovered each on average just over 140 thousand barrels of oil through April, and declined to a production rate of 140 bo/d.   Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released June production. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ORa9Nn   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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Permian – update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,997 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Last week I planned a post on the Permian, but noticed that September data for New Mexico was still quite incomplete (100 kbo/d, or ~20% of production has not yet been reported). Unfortunately, it still is, but I did not want to delay this update any further. The graph above shows clearly the astonishing rise in oil production in the Permian in the past 2 years, as oil production from horizontal wells more than doubled to over 2.8 million bo/d in September (which will be visible after upcoming revisions). More than 1.5 million bo/d in September came from ~3,200 horizontal wells that started in 2018. In New Mexico a single operator seems to be responsible for most of the missing production in September: EOG, which is also the largest producer in this state. After you exclude EOG from the graph (using the ‘Operator’ selection), you will see that the apparent drop in September has almost disappeared.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells. By default they are grouped and averaged by the year in which they started production. With this setting, you’ll find in the bottom plot that well productivity improved significantly in the past 5 years. Wells that started in 2013 recovered 77 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years, on average, while this more than doubled to 183 thousand barrels of oil for wells that started 3 years later. Since 2016 the pace of improvements appears to have slowed down, as you’ll see by following the 2017/2018 curves.   The final tab shows the performance of the leading operators. You’ll see the effects of the acquisition of RSP Permian by Concho, and the missing production for EOG in New Mexico in September. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This kind of plot doesn’t assume any kind of decline behavior, but a harmonic decline (b factor of 1), will show up as a straight line with the given settings. The 2,215 horizontal wells that started in 2016 (light brown curve) are on track to recover each around 200 thousand barrels of oil, once they have declined to an average production rate of 100 bo/d. Newer wells appear to be on track to do slightly better than that. Tomorrow we will have a new show at enelyst (live chat combined with images), where we will take a closer look at the latest Permian data. The show will be available here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at enelyst.com. Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LUFMoY   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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Permian – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 16,326 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. In this update we were able to include more recent wells, which explains the higher (~10%) production level.   Output has surged higher in the first 5 months of 2018, following the rapid rise in 2017. As the graph shows, about 75% of total oil production in May came from wells that started producing since the beginning of last year. Associated gas production has followed a similar growth path, and is now well above 7 Bcf/d (switch product to ‘gas’). By selecting only New Mexico (using the ‘Basin’ selection), you can see that oil production in this area of the Permian really accelerated since September last year, and is now close to half a million barrels of oil per day. Almost double the number of wells started production in the first 5 months compared with last year (331 vs 176).   In the “Well quality” tab the production profiles for all these wells are visualized. The bottom graph presents the cumulative production for each vintage. You can see that the wells that started in early 2016 are now closing in on the 200 thousand barrels of oil mark, on average, after about 2.5 years of production. It appears that more recent wells will do slightly better than that.   In  the ‘Well status’ overview, you’ll find the status of all these wells. If you select the status ‘First flow’, you can see that in the past year more than 300 wells started production each month, a level far higher than in the past.   All leading operators are at, or near, record production levels (‘Top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Recent wells are peaking at an average rate of ~700 bo/d in their first full calendar month, and are tracking a recovery slightly above the wells that started in Q2 2016. Early next week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on the Niobrara.   Don’t want to wait to see the latest production data for each state? Check out our ShaleProfile Analytics service, in which we keep the data always up-to-date. For example, it already contains over 80% of June production in Texas, as well as Q2 for Ohio. If you’re interested, you can start with a free trial. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2wth6fY     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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Permian – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from all 15,294 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009.     Oil production in the Permian has kept its upward trajectory through the first quarter of this year. The percentage growth since mid last year was even larger in New Mexico (50%), than in Texas (toggle the basins in the ‘Basin’ selection to see this).   Despite the increase in drilling & completion operations, well productivity has not deteriorated in recent quarters. The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the production profiles for all wells that started in a particular year, and here you can see that on average, recent wells are tracking the performance of wells that started in 2016. Those are on a path to recover ~200 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   In the bottom graph in the ‘Well status’ overview you can see the percentage of wells that are producing at a certain production level. In March, just over 400 wells were producing above 800 bo/d (a new record). The percentage of wells that are producing below 50 bo/d has remained steady at about 50% in the past couple of years.   The 4 leading oil producers in this basin are producing at or near record output levels, as shown in the final tab (‘top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   If you want to figure out which operator has the best average well results, the ‘Productivity ranking’ tab is a good place to start. Here you can see the ranking of all operators by the average cumulative production over the first 24 months. If you change this measurement period to 12 months, and select only the years 2016/17 using the ‘Year of first flow’ selection, you can see that of the large operators (>100 operated wells), EOG scores the best, with an average cumulative oil production of 207 thousand barrels in the first year for all its 147 wells that started producing in 2016 & 2017 (Jan-April only).   Early next week I will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all covered states in the US. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.  For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/04/permian-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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Permian – update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through June from all 16,770 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Even though data for the last few months is still somewhat incomplete, it is already clear that the Permian set another production record in June, producing well above 2.4 million bo/d from these horizontal wells. The ~2,000 wells that started so far this year already contributed more over 1 million bo/d in June, as reflected in the height of the dark blue area. The most prolific formations are the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring, together good for ~80% of total production (set ‘Show production by’ to ‘Formation’ to see this).   Although output is still rising, with more than 10 wells starting to flow every day, well productivity is no longer increasing as it did between 2013 and 2016, as you’ll notice in the ‘Well quality’ tab.   The 3 largest producers here, Pioneer Natural Resources, Concho Resources, and EOG, all increased production at a similar speed since early 2017 (see ‘Top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The thickness of these curves is an indication of how many wells are included. E.g., the thick curves since Q4 2017 reflect the more than 1,000 wells that started in each of the recent quarters. Although the number of new producers is high, also this plot shows that since Q2 2016 well performance hasn’t significantly changed anymore. In fact, if you normalize production by the lengths of these laterals (which is possible in our ShaleProfile Analytics service), you’ll find that productivity improvements have stagnated since then. Given that proppant loadings are also up (~16 million pounds per completion in Q1 2018, vs ~11 million pounds in Q2 2016), operators are getting less bang for their buck (or more accurately, less oil for their ‘bang’). This may explain why proppant loadings have on average not further increased since Q4 2017 in the Permian. Pioneer Natural Resources, which completed many wells since the end of last year with more than 20 million pounds of proppant, seems to also have scaled down its completions in recent months, based on preliminary data.   Later this week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all 10 covered states in the US early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2zIbdyk     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile    

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Permian – update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,140 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through July. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Output has continued to rise fast in the first half year, adding over 400 thousand barrels of oil per day from horizontal wells. The apparent drop in July is as usual due to incomplete data. As the graph above shows, more than 75% of oil production in July came from the ~5.7 thousand wells that started since the beginning of 2017. Natural gas production from these wells is also trending higher, and has now passed 8 Bcf/d.   The “Cumulative production profiles” plot in the ‘Well quality’ tab reveals the steadily increasing well performance in the past couple of years. Since 2016 this performance has increased just slightly. The average well that started in 2016 recovered ~200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   This area counts many operators; the top 3 operators, Pioneer Natural Resources, EOG & Concho Resources, produce together just 23% of total production. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Over the past 5 years, laterals have increased by almost 50%, while proppant loadings more than tripled. This has greatly affected well productivity, as you can see by the ever higher recovery trajectories. But based on preliminary data, it appears that the proppant per lateral foot ratio has slightly fallen in Q2 this year, as lateral lengths increased faster than proppant usage. You can analyze this in more detail in our ShaleProfile Analytics service. Recent wells are on average on track to recover just over 300 thousand barrels of oil, before their rate has dropped to 20 bo/d (which for most operators is probably still profitable).   Early next week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Jtl5zq     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,650 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in the Permian from horizontal wells has continued to rise at an astonishing pace, adding about 1 million bo/d in production capacity in the 12 months through August, to about 2.7 million bo/d (with upward revisions coming). The main driver behind this growth is the high level of completion activity; so far more than 2,800 horizontal wells have been completed this year, double the level of just 2 years ago, and 40% higher than last year. As shown by the blue area in August, those wells that started so far this year were already contributing to more than half of the total output in that month.   Well productivity has not changed by much in the past 2 years, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are so far tracking a recovery slightly ahead of the average 2016 well, which is on a path to recover about 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 30 months on production (and hitting that level with a flow rate of ~100 bo/d).   Concho finalized the acquisition of RSP Permian in July, and is now the leading unconventional oil producer in the Permian (see ‘Top operators’), just ahead of Pioneer Natural Resources.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The improvements in recovery trajectories over the past 8 years are clearly visible here, driven by major changes in well design (longer laterals, bigger frac jobs). However, since early 2016 these trajectories have not shown further clear gains, even though younger wells are still peaking at a higher rate than before. Later today (04.12.'18) we will have a new show at enelyst (live chat combined with images), where we will take a closer look at the Eagle Ford, on which we reported last week. The show will be available here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at enelyst.com.   Early next week I will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. If you are considering to subscribe to our data or analytics service, don’t wait too long! Starting from January 1st, we will raise our prices with a few percent. Request a trial or a demo here, or contact us. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2EeYuH2   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through April 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through April from all 15,532 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. The graph above shows the rapid growth of unconventional oil production from horizontal wells in the Permian where total oil output doubled in the past 2 years. As usual for this region, recent data is incomplete, and I expect that after revisions April production has set another record to over 2.2 million bo/d.   In the “well quality” tab the production profiles for all these  wells can be analyzed. The bottom graph shows that average well performance strongly increased from 2013 to 2016, and has not much changed since then.     The 3 leading operators, Pioneer, Concho and EOG, have more than tripled their operated production in the past 4 years (see the ‘top operators’ overview).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   Here you can see that recent wells track quite closely the performance of the wells that started in Q2 2016 (the light green curve), which have in 2 years recovered on average 180 thousand barrels of oil and are now at a production rate of 132 bo/d. The graph in the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’) displays how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative production in the first 2 years, has evolved over time. You’ll note that this metric almost tripled from 2013 to 2016, to more than 180 thousand barrels of oil.  The next update will be on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all 10 covered states in the US. Within the next week we are launching here our new online analytics service, with which the data and trends for more than 100 thousand horizontal wells in the US can be analyzed in user-friendly dashboards. You can already find a bit of information on the following page for this, where also a trial account can be requested: ShaleProfile Analytics   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/08/07/permian-update-through-april-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through September 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,050 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota jumped to 1,359 kbo/d in September, a month-on-month increase of more than 5%, which again set a new record. Just over 150 wells were brought into production, the highest number in more than 3 years. The year-to-date number of new producers is now almost the same as for the full 2017 (933 vs. 992).   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”), shows that recent wells are performing initially slightly better than those from 2017. Lateral lengths have slowly increased in the past couple of years, to just over 10k feet on average. Proppant loadings have increased faster, and have more than doubled in the past 4 years, to an average of about 10 million pounds per completion. This is still significantly below the average completion size in the Permian or the Eagle Ford (~15 million pounds).   In the “Well status” tab you can find the status of all these wells. By selecting just the status “DUC”, you’ll find that the number of drilled, but uncompleted wells has fallen in the summer months, to almost a 5-year low.   You can find in the last tab (“Top operators”), that all major operators were able to grow production in September, with Continental Resources clearly in the lead.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. You can see more granular and recent data by grouping the wells by quarter or month of first production. The improvements in initial performance in recent years are clearly revealed here. Interestingly, you can see that later in life the wells from 2009-2011 experience a shallower decline than later wells. This holds even if you exclude the wells that have been refractured (which is possible in our online analytics service). Later this week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus, followed by updates on the Niobrara and the Permian next week.   We are now collaborating with enelyst, an online chat platform for energy traders and analysts. We’ll host a weekly show there every Tuesday at 10:30 am (EST) for about 30 minutes, starting with today! Each time, we’ll take a basin and explain some significant trends in more detail, utilizing the latest insights we get from our ShaleProfile Analytics service, and we are open to Q&A. You can join it live, or later on the day review the discussions at your own leisure. You can join as follows: If you are already an enelyst member: Jump directly to the ShaleProfile Permian basin update this Tuesday at 10:30 am EST by hitting the channel link: Enter the ShaleProfile Briefings Channel If you are not yet an enelyst member: Sign up for free at: www.enelyst.com
Using the code: “Shale18”   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2S4gJSm   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,162 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota climbed to 1,392 kbo/d in October, a month-on-month increase of more than 2%, and again a new record for the state. In the first 10 months this year 1,045 wells were brought online, which was more than in each of the two years before.   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”), shows that recent wells are performing slightly better than those from 2017, which recovered on average 160 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production. In the “Well status” tab you can find the status of all these wells. By selecting the status ‘First flow’, you’ll find that 112 wells started producing in October (vs. 153 in September).   All leading operators have grown production in 2018 (“Top operators” tab). ConocoPhillips has almost taken over the 2nd spot from Whiting.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. It reveals that the wells that started in Q3 2017, marked by the dark green curve at the top, have shown so far the best performance, although the wells from 2018 are closely tracking a similar path.   The 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’), ranks all wells (from unconventional reservoirs) by cumulative production. The top 2 wells have produced each more than 1.6 million barrels of oil, and each of them still produces at a decent rate (>100 bo/d). Five more wells have also produced more than 1 million barrels of oil so far. The median well has produced a little below 200 thousand barrels of oil.   The ‘Productivity over time’ dashboard shows clearly how well productivity (as measured by the cumulative oil or gas production in the first x months), has increased in the past few years. We have a similar dashboard in our online analytics service, which allows you to normalize production, and which also shows the trends in well design (lateral length & proppant loading). It offers the possibility to quickly compare the performance of operators over time, in relation with how each has changed its completion practices. We will have a new post on the Marcellus just after Christmas. In our chat on enelyst, tomorrow (Dec 18th) at 10:30 am EST, we will take a closer look at the Bakken. If you are not yet an ign up for free at: www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18”.enelyst member, you can s For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2SRAuN9   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 13,545 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005. May oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,245 kbo/d, after a month-on-month increase of 1.6%. This pushed production higher than the previous all-time high in December 2014.   Recent wells are closely tracking the performance of the wells that started in 2017 (see the bottom graph in the ‘Well quality’ tab), on average.   In May 109 new wells started flowing, the highest since September 2015 (see the ‘first flow’ status in the ‘Well status’ overview).     In the final tab (‘Top operators’) you’ll find that ConocoPhillips has grown production the most in the past 1.5 year (percentage wise), to almost 100 thousand barrels of oil per day, making it the 3rd largest producer in this state, behind Continental Resources and Whiting.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started.   More wells started in 2017 than in 2016 (970 vs 724), and their initial performance was also substantially higher, as the plot above shows. They recovered on average almost 100 thousand barrels of oil in the first 6 months on production, a level that took almost 12 months for wells that started 2 years earlier. If you group the wells by the quarter in which they started (using the ‘Show wells by’ selection), you’ll see that the initial performance of the wells that started in the 3rd quarter last year was especially high, with close to 150 thousand barrels in the first 9 months.   Although not so profitable, associated gas production rose even more, which becomes visible if you change the ‘Product’ selection to ‘Gas’. This is displayed in more depth in the 9th tab (‘Gas oil ratio’), where you can see in the bottom graph that this ratio has risen almost uninterruptedly in the past decade.   As mentioned in my last posts, next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, I’ll be more than happy to show you our vision and give you a demo. We’ll start posting again in the week after.   Production data is subject to revisions.For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/19/north-dakota-update-through-may-2018   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through June from all 13,628 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005. June oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,246 kbo/d, after a month-on-month drop of ~1.5%. As shown in the below graph, wells that started production since 2017 contributed about half of total oil production in June.   If you switch to gas, you’ll see that natural gas production has risen strongly in North Dakota in the past 1.5 years.   In the ‘Well status’ overview the historical status of all these wells can be seen. The bottom graph there shows that in June just over 1,200 horizontal wells (9% of total) produced more than 200 bo/d, which was good for more than half of total oil production. About 60% of the wells are now at a rate below 50 bo/d.   Of the leading operators, only ConocoPhillips set a new record in June, at just below 100 thousand barrels of oil per day. Continental Resources, although still in the lead, has not drilled many additional wells in the past 1.5 years, and has now depleted its DUC count by half since March last year.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. Here you can see that on average initial well performance has improved since 2015. However, you can now also find areas where it has actually fallen.   An interesting case is Oasis. If you select only this operator (in the ‘Operator’ selection), you can see that the shape of the decline has changed radically for recent wells; although they started at a high initial flow rate, after about 8 months on production the decline is steeper than seen before. It may well be that these wells will eventually recover less oil than many of its earlier wells.   Next week I plan to have a post on the Marcellus, followed by one on the Permian. If you want to have always access to the latest data for all states, please consider our online analytics service, which was just launched. Besides being able to see all the individual horizontal wells, it also allows you to analyze trends in lateral lengths and proppant loadings. You can find more information, including the possibility to request a free trial, here on our products page. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Lo3ckL     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through July 2018

These interactive presentations contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 13,628 horizontal wells in North Dakota through July, that started production since 2005. July oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,269 kbo/d, after a month-on-month rise of 3.4%, setting a new record for the state. Visit ShaleProfile blog to use and explore interactive dashboards   An important factor behind this jump were the 141 new wells that started production, the highest number in 3 years. Completion activity was higher in the first 7 months of this year compared with last year (649 vs 525 wells).   Several operators set new production records, including Continental Resources and ConocoPhillips, which just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer in this area (see ‘Top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. It shows that so far the wells that started in Q3 2017 had the best start; after 11 months they recovered on average 169 thousand barrels of oil. Although lateral lengths haven’t changed much in North Dakota, proppant loadings have doubled in the past 4 years, to close to 1,000 lb/ft. In our online analytics service, these trends can be easily analyzed by play and operator. Request a free trial here! Next week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MIA8oV     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through August 2018

These interactive presentations contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 13,899 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,291 kbo/d in August, after a month-on-month rise of 1.7%, setting again a new record. As the graph shows, the 782 wells that started production in 2018 contributed already to more than 1/3rd of total production in August, producing more than the ~10k wells that started before 2015. After the high number of new producers in July (141 horizontal wells), 133 more came online in August. As this year around 100 wells were drilled so far each month, these recent completion numbers reduced the number of DUCs.   The production profiles for all these wells can be seen in the “Well quality” tab. The 2018 wells are so far tracking closely the performance of the wells from the year before.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. The 275 wells that started in Q3 2017 still show the best results so far (dark brown curve). They recovered on average 178 thousand barrels of oil in the first year of production. They appear to be on a path to recover about 1 more time that amount, before turning into stripper wells (<= 15 bo/d).   In the 4th tab (“Productivity ranking”), all operators are ranked based on the average performance of their wells, as measured by the total oil recovered in the first 2 years. If you only select recent years, 2014-2016 (using the “first production year” selection), you’ll find that Enerplus comes out clearly on top. The 47 operated wells that started in this time frame recovered on average 289 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years.   Next week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CrnRnk     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through September 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 9,508 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through September. Since the last post, we’ve also added several other regions in these 2 states, and they are included here. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards In August a new record was set, at over 0.5 million bo/d. After revisions are in I believe September will show a higher level again. Weld County produces about 75% of this output (group production by ‘County’ to see this).   Decline rates are fairly high, and most wells are at or below 20 bo/d after 4 years on production, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. In the ‘Well status’ tab the statuses are shown for all these wells. After selecting only ‘First flow’, you’ll note that the number of wells that started production in July and August (>160) was almost back to the record levels in 2014.   The final tab shows the leading operators and the location of their operated wells. Extraction Oil & Gas tripled its output in the past 1.5 years, and is now the number 3.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production of all these horizontal wells is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. A major jump in average well productivity can be seen near the end of 2016, marked by the pink and red curves at the top, after which it has slightly fallen.   The 2nd tab ranks all wells by their cumulative production. The best three horizontal wells since 2009 have now produced more than 0.5 million barrels of oil, and they are all located in Campbell County (WY).   Last week we published a post on gas production in Pennsylvania. Tomorrow (Tuesday), at 10:30 EST, we’ll go over that in more detail in our show at enelyst: enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18” We have upgraded our data release procedure, and are now able to share on a weekly basis our database with ShaleProfile Data subscribers. More info can be found here. Later this week we will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by the Permian early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2PWT8pP   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May, from all 7,962 horizontal wells that started production in the Niobrara region (Colorado & Wyoming) since 2009/2010. As shown in the graph below, 2017 was a similarly strong year for oil production growth as 2013, with more than 150 thousand bo/d added. Since end of last year, production from unconventional horizontal wells has remained just below half a million bo/d. In May about 70% of total oil production came from wells that started since the beginning of 2017. Gas production has now reached a level of 2.5 Bcf/d (set ‘Product’ to ‘gas’).   Completion activity is still a bit behind the record levels seen at the end of 2014, with ~120 wells per month added (vs. ~160 in the 2nd half of 2014). A big factor behind the recent output levels is then also improved well productivity, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Wells that started in 2017 performed better than earlier wells; on average they reached the 100 thousand barrel mark within the first year of production, while this took at least 1.5 years for earlier vintages.   Anadarko and Noble Energy are the largest operators in this region (see “Top operators”), but Extraction Oil & Gas is catching up rapidly.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production of all these horizontal wells is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   The jump in performance since Q4 2016 is clearly visible here. Since then however no further improvement is seen. If you group the wells by month, to see more recent and granular data, you’ll note that the best performance so far is shown by wells that started in Dec 2016. Many of the wells here are already at or close to stripper well status. Wells that started before 2014 are producing now on average at a level of 15 bo/d or lower. More dashboards, with other types of data (completion sizes, lateral lengths, etc) and more up-to-date data are available in our online analytics tool, for which you can request a free trial. We just started a YouTube channel in which we are sharing some movies on how you could perform particular analyses using this new tool: ShaleProfile Analytics on YouTube The following is a screenshot from a dashboard that shows a map with the gas-oil ratio (GOR) of all wells in the heart of the DJ-Niobrara basin, in their most recent month. On the right side you can see their ultimate recovery curves, with the related GOR plotted below. Also in this basin you can find areas where the GOR is rising faster for more recent wells, and that this is negatively impacting long-term recovery rates (not shown here below). [right-click and view/download to see a higher resolution version] Early next week I have an update on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2x25WQp     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through July, from all 8,221 horizontal wells that started production in the Niobrara region (Colorado & Wyoming) since 2009/2010. Although we had a post on this region just 3 weeks ago, as we now have reliable data up through July, I wanted to share another update. A few percent of the wells were not yet reported in July, so there will be some upward revisions.   Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Total oil production from horizontal wells in these 2 states increased by about 50% since early 2017, to close to half a million barrels of oil per day. In July, the wells that started in this period (>= 2017) contributed around 75% to this production. Completion activity is still a bit behind the record levels seen at the end of 2014, with ~120 wells per month added (vs. ~160 in the 2nd half of 2014).   In the “Well quality” tab we can see that the wells that started in 2017 clearly outperformed any earlier wells, on average. The ones that started in 2018 appear to be slightly behind in terms of initial performance.   Anadarko, the leading operator here with close to 20% of total oil output, was above 100 thousand barrels of oil per day of gross production again in July, as the last tab shows. The average gas oil ratio for its wells in Weld County is rising rapidly (>40% in the past 3 years), and there are some signs that this is impacting long-term recovery potential. As shown also in my previous update on North Dakota, we recently added a new dashboard in our analytics tool (for which you can request a trial here), in which these trends can be analyzed in all detail.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production of all these horizontal wells is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Although average well productivity in general increased until early 2017, this plot shows that since then it appears to have fallen slightly. Recent wells may on average fall just short of recovering 140 thousand barrels of oil, before becoming stripper wells (< 15 bo/d).   In the ‘Productivity ranking’ overview, operators are ranked according to the average cumulative oil production in the first 2 years. Of the large operators (>100 operated wells), EOG has the best performance with 125 thousand barrels for this metric. If you click on its result, you will see in the map below that most of its wells are located in Campbell County (WY).   Next week we will have updates on both the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2QdcmDv     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,512 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production from horizontal wells came in higher again in September, at 17.4 Bcf/d. Output has grown by about 10% in the 4 preceding months, driven mostly by an increase in well completions; In both August and September, 107 wells started production, the highest since the end of 2014.   This increase in completion activity didn’t have a negative effect so far on well productivity. In the ‘Well quality’ tab you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells, averaged by the year in which they started. Group the wells by the quarter in which they started (using the ‘Show wells by selection’), and you’ll see that the best initial performance came from the wells that started in Q3 this year, at over 13 MMcf/d.   Of the 5 leading operators, Cabot stood out as it increased gas production by 18% in just 2 months (see the final tab). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain quarter. Well design has changed significantly over the years; in 2012 about 4 million pounds of proppant was used per completion, on average, while this has recently increased to over 18 million pounds. The plot clearly shows how this has had a positive impact on well productivity. Early next week I will have a new update on the Niobrara.   If you missed our live chat last Tuesday with John Sodergreen and Het Shah, about the Permian Basin, you can still read back our discussion here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. Next week Tuesday, at 10:30 am (EST), we’ll take a closer look at gas production in Pennsylvania, and there is enough time to ask questions. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18” Happy Thanksgiving! Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2DVzQLg   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Marcellus (PA) – update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,567 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards New production records have been set in the 2nd half of every year since 2010, and 2018 was no different. Gas production in October from horizontal wells came in at 17.6 Bcf/d, about 20% higher than October 2017 (14.1 Bcf/d). The 687 wells that started production in the first 10 months of 2018 already contributed more than 1/3rd of total gas production in October (6 Bcf/d).   Well productivity made a big gain in 2017 (see ‘Well quality’ tab), but it did not rise much further in 2018, based on preliminary data. Newer wells recover on average more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, compared with 3 Bcf from wells that started in 2016.   All major operators increased production in 2018, except Chesapeake (‘Top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain year. The improved performance over the past years is clearly visible here. If you change the ‘Show wells by’ selection to ‘quarter’, you can see more recent and granular data. It will also reveal that newer wells peak at a level of over 12,000 Mcf/d, more than three times the rate of the wells that started in 2012.   The 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’), ranks all counties in Pennsylvania by cumulative gas production. If you change the ranking to ‘Well’, you’ll see the cumulative production for each of those 8,500+ wells. The most productive one is above 20 Bcf.   Later this week we will have a new post on the Permian. We wish you all a Happy New Year!   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2s048ED   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

shaleprofile

shaleprofile