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About this blog

Visualizing US shale oil & gas production

The blog contains still images from interactive dashboards available on each blog post.
To follow the instructions detailed in every post, use the interactive dashboards. You can also explore the dashboards to uncover different insights and trends.

Entries in this blog

Permian – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 20,349 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards The breakneck growth in Permian production during the past 2 years appears to have taken a breather, at least temporarily. I expect that after revisions, production in February will come in 5-10% higher than shown here, or about 3.2-3.3 million bo/d. This would represent just a modest gain from the end of last year. Gas production is now above 10 Bcf/d. We sometimes get questions about whether our oil numbers include NGLs. That is not the case; many states do not require operators to report NGLs, and we therefore do not publish them either. If condensate is reported separately, we add it to the oil figures. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of these 20 thousand horizontal wells. They are grouped and averaged by the year in which production began. You can easily see there that initial well productivity has increased further in the past 2 years, although less than in the period from 2013 and 2016. The wells that started in 2018 are on a path to recover almost 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production, on average. However, this does not take into account that laterals have gotten longer, and that more proppants are used nowadays. If you normalize for either of these factors, as is possible in our advanced analytics service, you’ll find that well productivity already topped out in the middle of 2016. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. As you can see here, peak rates are still going up. The more than a thousand wells that started in the final quarter of 2018 peaked at 880 bo/d, on average. They’re on a path to recover each around 300 thousand barrels of oil, before they’ve declined to a rate of 50 bo/d. The following screenshot (also from our advanced analytics service) shows how total oil production has developed in the top 8 producing counties in the Permian. Output in each of these counties has risen strongly in the past three years. The locations of the related horizontal wells are shown on the map. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford. Tomorrow at noon (ET) we will present a briefing on all the major shale oil basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. If you’re interested, register here for free: enelyst registration page.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HHKJkB Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Eagle Ford - update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,421 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards February oil production came in at 1,22 million bo/d, the same rate of production as a year earlier. After revisions, it will be a little higher but still below the level at the end of last year. As is visible in the graph above, the contribution of wells that came online before 2018 was just about 50% in February. The ‘Well quality’ tab reveals that the performance of the 1,800+ horizontal wells that began production in the main formations (Eagle Ford & Austin Chalk) in 2018 was equal to those that started a year earlier (see bottom chart). You can also find that typically, after 6 years on production, wells have declined to a production rate of about 20 bo/d. There are of course major regional variances, which I will show later in this post. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. In the 2nd tab, you will find a ranking of all counties in the Eagle Ford, based on total oil production from these horizontal wells through February. Karnes is #1, with over 700 million barrels of oil produced, since 2008. Now, let’s take a closer look at how well productivity has evolved in the top 4 counties shown in this list. The following screenshot comes from our advanced online analytics service: The map shows the location of all the horizontal oil wells in these 4 counties (click on the image for a high-resolution version). The top right graph shows the average well performance over time, as measured by the cumulative oil recovery in the first 12 months. DeWitt County is in the lead, with close to 190 thousand barrels of oil recovered in the first year on production, on average. However, total oil production in this county has dropped close to a multi-year low, as completion activity has dropped (not visible in this image). Only 152 wells came online in this county in 2018 (vs. 383 in 2014).   In the middle of next week we will have a new post on all covered states in the US. We still offer free trials and demos in case you are curious to know what more you could learn from our analytics and data services: request a demo or trial.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2WisrdR Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Haynesville - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from 5,059 horizontal wells in the Haynesville, that have started producing since 2009/2010, through January 2019. The post on the Permian has been delayed to later this week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in the Haynesville rose by more than 2 Bcf/d in 2018 to well over 8 Bcf/d, which was the strongest growth since 2012, breaking the previous record set 6 years earlier. The apparent drop in the last 2 months visible is due to missing production data from new wells, which will become available over time. The main reason behind this fast growth is that about 30% more wells were completed in 2018 than in the previous year. Well productivity made substantial jump in 2016 (see “Well quality”), followed by a small one in 2017, but did not improve further in 2018, based on preliminary data. New wells are on a path to recover close to 6 Bcf in the first 2 years, on average, a level that earlier wells are unlikely to reach in their lifetime. Proppant loadings have increased the most in this basin, over the last couple of years. On average, well above 20 million pounds of proppants were injected into wells completed in 2018, versus less than 5 million pounds in 2012. The final tab shows the production and location of the top 5 operators, including Chesapeake and Indigo, both operating over 1 Bcf/d.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between production rates, and cumulative recovery, over time. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also shows the major improvement in well productivity. Newer wells peak at double the rate than wells from a couple of years ago, and their initial decline is less steep. However, also these more recent wells appear to follow a similar decline after this initial period, based on preliminary data. This is more visible if you change the “Show wells by” selection to ‘quarter of first flow’, which displays more granular and recent data. Later this week we will have a post on the Permian. Today at noon (EST) we will present a briefing on all the major gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

US - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 98,450 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through October 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.9 Gbo and 108 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Later this post I will be making 3 major announcements; about a new (and cheap!) analytics service, Oklahoma, and the NAPE. But first, how has shale oil production developed in the past year? You will find in the graph above that all these horizontal wells produced 6.2 million barrels of oil per day in October, which after revisions will be a few percents higher still. More than half of total oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as indicated by the dark blue area. Over 20% more wells were completed in the first 10 months 2018, compared with the same period a year earlier.   Initial well productivity increased slightly further in 2018, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where all the oily basins have been preselected.   All the 5 top shale producers were at, or near, production highs in October (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Peak rates have steadily moved higher over the years, as you’ll see here. In Q3 2018, the average peak rate was 668 bo/d, versus 285 bo/d 7 years earlier. Extrapolating these curves allows you to make a reasonable estimate of the ultimate recovery range. You can switch ‘Product’ to natural gas, to do the same for the gas stream of these wells. Today we have 3 major announcements to make: A new analytics subscription level is now available, ShaleProfile Analytics – Analyst, For just $52 per month you can always get access to the latest data, see the exact location of more than 100,000 horizontal wells, and their production history. Most dashboards can be viewed full-screen, and you will have more filtering options, such as between oil & gas wells. If you have been a follower of the blog, and want to stay even more informed, this may be something for you. You can try out this service for the first month for just $19. We almost lose money on this subscription, so don’t wait too long! Oklahoma is in now! Oklahoma has so far been the big missing state in our database. By having it in, we now cover around 98% of all the horizontal wells in the US. It has been a tough state to work with, as data sources are unreliable and incomplete. We have spent a big amount of effort (and $) to add it. There are still some data issues to sort out, but we believe we can already now call it at least a 90% version. There is a greater lag time for Oklahoma than for most other states; we can currently cover production data through March 2018. Try out one of our subscriptions to get access to all this data! Today the NAPE conference here in Houston will start for real. Come visit our booth (#2331) if you have the opportunity, and I’ll show you what we can do for you. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release December data later this week. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

US - update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 103,883 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through February 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.8 Gbo and 116 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag for many horizontal wells. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards A thousand horizontal wells were completed every month last year, on average. But now the frantic growth in oil production in the past 2 years appears to have stalled. Production in the first 2 months of 2019 was slightly down, although revisions will probably bring the level back up close to the record in December, at just over 6.7 million bo/d. The “Well quality” tab reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but by a smaller margin than in the 5 preceding years. In the bottom chart (“Cumulative production profiles”), you will find that about 132 thousand barrels of oil are recovered in the first year, on average, versus 122 thousand barrels for wells that began production in 2017. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. Most are near their production highs, although ConocoPhillips saw a large reduction in output in February, especially in North Dakota where it is also one of the largest operators. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart confirms that initial well productivity in these basins has increased almost every single year. Associated gas production is up as well, as you’ll find if you switch ‘Product’ to ‘Gas’. The chart will then show that recent wells are also on a trajectory to recover well over 1 Bcf of natural gas, on average. The following screenshot, from our Professional Analytics service, reveals the top 10 oil-producing counties in these major tight oil basins. Click on the image to see the high-resolution version. McKenzie County in North Dakota is still clearly in the lead, followed by Reeves, Weld and Midland counties. Lea County (NM), in which output more than doubled in the past 2 years, is catching up fast. In the coming week, we will release a major improvement for our data subscribers: a REST API, that allows our customers to keep their database closely synchronized with ours, which is updated on a daily basis.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release April production data in the coming days. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2WC8zap Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

North Dakota – update through August 2018

These interactive presentations contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 13,899 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota came in at 1,291 kbo/d in August, after a month-on-month rise of 1.7%, setting again a new record. As the graph shows, the 782 wells that started production in 2018 contributed already to more than 1/3rd of total production in August, producing more than the ~10k wells that started before 2015. After the high number of new producers in July (141 horizontal wells), 133 more came online in August. As this year around 100 wells were drilled so far each month, these recent completion numbers reduced the number of DUCs.   The production profiles for all these wells can be seen in the “Well quality” tab. The 2018 wells are so far tracking closely the performance of the wells from the year before.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. The 275 wells that started in Q3 2017 still show the best results so far (dark brown curve). They recovered on average 178 thousand barrels of oil in the first year of production. They appear to be on a path to recover about 1 more time that amount, before turning into stripper wells (<= 15 bo/d).   In the 4th tab (“Productivity ranking”), all operators are ranked based on the average performance of their wells, as measured by the total oil recovered in the first 2 years. If you only select recent years, 2014-2016 (using the “first production year” selection), you’ll find that Enerplus comes out clearly on top. The 47 operated wells that started in this time frame recovered on average 289 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years.   Next week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CrnRnk     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

North Dakota – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,597 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota rose by 4% in March m-o-m to 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production was even up by 6.5%, reaching 2.8 Bcf/d, a new all-time high. As is shown in the chart above, the 13 thousand horizontal wells that started production before 2018 contributed only half of the oil production in March (everything below the light blue area). Five to six years ago it used to take a well about 5 years to recover 200 thousand barrels of oil, as you’ll find in the bottom chart in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells are capable of reaching this level in just 15 months. However, initial declines are steeper nowadays. After about 2 years on production, these new wells decline to production rates not far above those of older vintages, on average (see the top chart in that dashboard). The final tab reveals the production and location of the 5 leading operators. Hess just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer, far behind Continental Resources. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here it is easy to see that initial well productivity has improved almost every year since 2010. However, as noted last time, older vintages (2008-2011) appear to hold up a little better than later wells. This holds true even after excluding wells that have been refrac’ed (which is possible in our subscription services). The following screenshot, taken from our analytics service, shows the output from the 7 largest fields in North Dakota. On the map, the locations of the wells in these fields are plotted. Recently, production in Banks and Reunion Bay has jumped higher, surpassing the record output of the 2 fields where unconventional production really started in North Dakota; the Sanish and Parshall fields. Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released March production data recently. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VQp3vo Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Eagle Ford - update through March 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,637 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing from 2008 onward, through March 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards March oil production came in at about 1.3 million bo/d, after upcoming revisions, 5% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas production is still hovering at a level close to 6 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to ‘gas’). The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the average production profiles of all these wells. The wells completed in 2019 are so far slightly ahead of earlier wells. But well productivity has stagnated since 2017, as you’ll find in the bottom chart (‘Cumulative production profiles’). EOG and ConocoPhillips, the two leading oil operators in the basin are close to their historical output record, which they both set last year. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 2,891 horizontal wells that started in 2012 have now recovered 150 thousand barrels of oil each, on average, while their production rate has dropped below 20 bo/d. The wells that have been completed since 2017 are on a path to do 200 thousand barrels before hitting a similar level. Of course, there are major regional differences. In the oil-rich counties Karnes and DeWitt, this metric is closer to 300 thousand barrels of oil. In the 4th tab, the operators in this area are ranked by their well performance, as measured by the average cumulative production in the first 2 years. Of the operators with more than 100 wells, Devon and ConocoPhillips are showing the best performance. Their wells recovered on average 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years.   Later this week, we will have a new post on all covered states in the US. Next week we will be a few days in Houston, before traveling to Denver for URTeC, where we have a booth (#951). Please contact us if you would like to meet us in either city!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Xu6D4i   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

US - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 102,269 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through January 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.6 Gbo and 113 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January production from these wells was at a similar level as a month earlier, with about 6.6 million bo/d (after revisions). The Permian has been responsible for most of the growth in the past 2 years. If you exclude this basin (using the “Basin” filter at the bottom), you will see that combined production in the other basins only surpassed the 2014 peak in December. The “Well quality tab” reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but only slightly. Also in this regard did the Permian have a positive impact; if you deselect this basin, you’ll note that the improvement is even smaller without it. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG increased its output by almost 50% in the past 2 years, and is now close to 600 thousand bo/d of operated capacity. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Average peak rates have again increased in 2018 (636 bo/d vs. 567 bo/d in 2017). If you switch Product to “gas”, you’ll see the natural gas production profiles for these same wells, most of it associated with oil production. These profiles have also improved a lot in recent years; the almost 8,000 horizontal wells that started in 2017 are on a trajectory to recover over 1 Bcf of natural gas each, on average. Of course, there are major differences between and within these basins. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release March production data by the end of this week. In our subscription services, you will always find the most recent data, as we process many of our data sources on a daily basis. For most states, we already have February or even March (Wyoming and Montana) production data. Even with the $52/month Analyst subscription you can already access this data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2JI4Qka Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

North Dakota – update through September 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,050 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota jumped to 1,359 kbo/d in September, a month-on-month increase of more than 5%, which again set a new record. Just over 150 wells were brought into production, the highest number in more than 3 years. The year-to-date number of new producers is now almost the same as for the full 2017 (933 vs. 992).   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”), shows that recent wells are performing initially slightly better than those from 2017. Lateral lengths have slowly increased in the past couple of years, to just over 10k feet on average. Proppant loadings have increased faster, and have more than doubled in the past 4 years, to an average of about 10 million pounds per completion. This is still significantly below the average completion size in the Permian or the Eagle Ford (~15 million pounds).   In the “Well status” tab you can find the status of all these wells. By selecting just the status “DUC”, you’ll find that the number of drilled, but uncompleted wells has fallen in the summer months, to almost a 5-year low.   You can find in the last tab (“Top operators”), that all major operators were able to grow production in September, with Continental Resources clearly in the lead.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. You can see more granular and recent data by grouping the wells by quarter or month of first production. The improvements in initial performance in recent years are clearly revealed here. Interestingly, you can see that later in life the wells from 2009-2011 experience a shallower decline than later wells. This holds even if you exclude the wells that have been refractured (which is possible in our online analytics service). Later this week I plan to have a new post on the Marcellus, followed by updates on the Niobrara and the Permian next week.   We are now collaborating with enelyst, an online chat platform for energy traders and analysts. We’ll host a weekly show there every Tuesday at 10:30 am (EST) for about 30 minutes, starting with today! Each time, we’ll take a basin and explain some significant trends in more detail, utilizing the latest insights we get from our ShaleProfile Analytics service, and we are open to Q&A. You can join it live, or later on the day review the discussions at your own leisure. You can join as follows: If you are already an enelyst member: Jump directly to the ShaleProfile Permian basin update this Tuesday at 10:30 am EST by hitting the channel link: Enter the ShaleProfile Briefings Channel If you are not yet an enelyst member: Sign up for free at: www.enelyst.com
Using the code: “Shale18”   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2S4gJSm   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Marcellus (PA) – update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,567 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards New production records have been set in the 2nd half of every year since 2010, and 2018 was no different. Gas production in October from horizontal wells came in at 17.6 Bcf/d, about 20% higher than October 2017 (14.1 Bcf/d). The 687 wells that started production in the first 10 months of 2018 already contributed more than 1/3rd of total gas production in October (6 Bcf/d).   Well productivity made a big gain in 2017 (see ‘Well quality’ tab), but it did not rise much further in 2018, based on preliminary data. Newer wells recover on average more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, compared with 3 Bcf from wells that started in 2016.   All major operators increased production in 2018, except Chesapeake (‘Top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain year. The improved performance over the past years is clearly visible here. If you change the ‘Show wells by’ selection to ‘quarter’, you can see more recent and granular data. It will also reveal that newer wells peak at a level of over 12,000 Mcf/d, more than three times the rate of the wells that started in 2012.   The 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’), ranks all counties in Pennsylvania by cumulative gas production. If you change the ranking to ‘Well’, you’ll see the cumulative production for each of those 8,500+ wells. The most productive one is above 20 Bcf.   Later this week we will have a new post on the Permian. We wish you all a Happy New Year!   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2s048ED   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Eagle Ford - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,309 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January oil production came in at 1,24 million bo/d, maintaining the same level as a year earlier. However, after revisions, it will end up closer to the 1.3 million bo/d that was produced a month earlier. You will find the production profiles of these wells in the “Well quality” tab, where the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk formations have been preselected. Well productivity has improved each year since 2010, on average, but only very slightly in 2018. Recent wells peak at a rate of just over 600 bo/d, and, if they keep following the path of their predecessors, will fall to 20 bo/d after about 6 years on production. The final tab, “Top operators”, displays the production and location of the 5 largest oil producers. They all started 2019 below their highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4.5 thousand horizontal wells that began production in 2014, the busiest year so far, have recovered an average of 150 thousand barrels of oil, after a little over 4 years on production. During this time, they declined from 382 bo/d in their peak month, to 29 bo/d (93% decline). The following image was taken from a dashboard in ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional):   Here you can see the production from the top 8 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford (click on the image for a high-resolution version). It shows that most counties in the Eagle Ford are well off their peak production, but Karnes is still close. In contrast, activity in Burleson County, further to the northeast, has been picking up, albeit from a small base. Early next week we will have a new post on the Permian, followed by one on the Haynesville. On Tuesday, at noon EST, we will host another show on the ShaleProfile channel at enelyst. This time we will take a closer look at the major shale gas basins in the US. I hope to see you there!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LhTKVi   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Terminal Decline Rates averaging 25-30% in Niobrara - update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 9,508 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states set a new high in October, at just over 550 thousand bo/d. Gas production also came in at a record level, at close to 3 Bcf/d.   The year over year growth rate dropped however, compared with the previous year, despite that more wells were completed in the first 10 months of 2018 vs 2017. More wells were needed to offset the decline from wells that came online in 2017, and well productivity also fell a little, based on preliminary data (see the ‘Well quality’ tab).   The DUC count has remained steady in the past year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well status’ dashboard if you only select the DUCs (using the well status selection on the top).   Anadarko, the largest producer in this area, showed a drop in production in the previous 12 months. The numbers 2 to 4 (Noble Energy, Extraction Oil & Gas, and PDC) did break their previous records in October. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. This time I only selected Weld County (using the ‘County’ filter at the bottom), as it is good for almost 80% of total production,  and I wanted to highlight some interesting things happening here. The first observation is that well productivity appears to have fallen since 2016 Q4/2017 Q1, as wells from later quarters are trending towards slightly lower ultimate recoveries. The second, and probably more important one, is about the terminal decline rates that you can see here. As you follow these curves from wells that started between 2011 and 2015, you’ll see that they start to accelerate downward as lower production levels are reached. You’ll see the same effect if you select the natural gas stream from these wells (‘Product’ selection). That doesn’t bode well for long-term recovery estimates. So how big are these terminal decline rates actually? We’ve just added a new dashboard in our Professional Analytics service, which aims to answer these kind of questions. Here you will see a screenshot of this dashboard, in which all the horizontal wells in Weld County are selected, that started production since 2012. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 40 bo/d, from which they never fully recovered, before November 2015.     You can see 2 graphs here. The one on the top shows the average flow rate of all the 1,354 horizontal wells that met these criteria, versus time (the number of months after they fell below 40 bo/d). The graph on the bottom plots the average terminal decline rate of all these wells. I recommend ignoring the results up to month 20 or so, due to the inherent bias of this selection. However, you can see that a relatively steady state has been reached after 24 months. Between 24 months, and 36 months, which contains data for all these wells, you will find an average annual decline rate between 25 and 30%. This, I believe, is a far higher terminal decline rate than is commonly assumed when making ultimate recovery estimates. In this dashboard, you will have many more options. For example, you can look at all the other shale basins, or at the terminal decline rate of the gas streams, or group these wells by e.g. the year in which they started to see how these terminal decline rates have changed with newer completions. Other basins didn’t show the same high terminal decline rate, but also there they were significant.   Later today in our show at enelyst, at 10:30 EST, we will take a closer look at the latest data from North Dakota, in which we will also examine some findings of this new dashboard. You can join this event here: enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18”   Next week we will have updates on the Eagle Ford, and also the Permian if new data for New Mexico has been released by then.   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2sS8MF7   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,383 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in North Dakota increased by almost 2% m-o-m to just over 1.4 million barrels of oil per day in December, after a small drop in November. In December 121 wells started production, vs. 98 in November. Although the number of wells that started production in 2018 was more than a thousand fewer than in 2014 (1,266 vs. 2,276), they contributed more production at the end of the year (630 kbo/d, vs 595 kbo/d in Dec 2014).   The reason behind this is that initial well productivity greatly increased over these years, as is shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are on a path to recover just over 170 thousand barrels of oil in the first year, while this was below 100 thousand barrels for the wells from 2014. One major difference between these 2 vintages was the amount of proppant used; 4.5 million pounds per completion in 2014, vs. 10 million pounds per completion in 2018.   All the top 5 operators are at or near record production levels (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. As you can see, the best initial performance so far came from wells that started in Q3 2017. The 271 wells that started in that quarter recovered on average 207 thousand barrels of oil in the first 16 months, and have now declined to 191 bo/d, from a peak rate of 719 bo/d. If you switch product to ‘gas’, you can find the gas production from the same wells. What is striking is that newer wells produce way more gas than older ones (I estimate up to 3 times more). As gas is not earning a lot of money in North Dakota, I advice to be aware of this when looking at production metrics in this basin that use ‘BOE’ (barrels of oil equivalent). Is this rising GOR having an impact on well productivity? On a large scale, the impact seems to be currently limited. However, in some areas well performance seems to suffer from this. As an example, find here the wells from Oasis in McKenzie County, from our analytics service. I preselected a couple of quarters, to show how well behavior has changed since 2011.   The location of these wells is shown on the map on the left. On the right side, you will find the flow rate vs. cumulative plot, and the GOR vs. cumulative plot at the bottom. It shows that the wells from Q2 2011 are on a path to recover most oil, even though the more recent wells started at a far higher peak rate. The steepening of the decline seems to correlate with the rise in GOR. As I mentioned last week, we now have data from Oklahoma in our database, which is available to all our analytics and data subscribers. I would like to make this data also available here on the blog. But because we spent a significant amount of money and time on this, I would first like to see that our customer base has grown even further. My promise to you is this; once we have added 100 more Professional (or Ultimate, once this level is available) analytics subscribers, I will include Oklahoma in our blog posts here. How can you help? Maybe you find use in the more advanced features of these services or know people who might. Please let them know about us, and hopefully we can soon share this data with you here. Thank you for supporting us! Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,162 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota climbed to 1,392 kbo/d in October, a month-on-month increase of more than 2%, and again a new record for the state. In the first 10 months this year 1,045 wells were brought online, which was more than in each of the two years before.   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”), shows that recent wells are performing slightly better than those from 2017, which recovered on average 160 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production. In the “Well status” tab you can find the status of all these wells. By selecting the status ‘First flow’, you’ll find that 112 wells started producing in October (vs. 153 in September).   All leading operators have grown production in 2018 (“Top operators” tab). ConocoPhillips has almost taken over the 2nd spot from Whiting.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. It reveals that the wells that started in Q3 2017, marked by the dark green curve at the top, have shown so far the best performance, although the wells from 2018 are closely tracking a similar path.   The 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’), ranks all wells (from unconventional reservoirs) by cumulative production. The top 2 wells have produced each more than 1.6 million barrels of oil, and each of them still produces at a decent rate (>100 bo/d). Five more wells have also produced more than 1 million barrels of oil so far. The median well has produced a little below 200 thousand barrels of oil.   The ‘Productivity over time’ dashboard shows clearly how well productivity (as measured by the cumulative oil or gas production in the first x months), has increased in the past few years. We have a similar dashboard in our online analytics service, which allows you to normalize production, and which also shows the trends in well design (lateral length & proppant loading). It offers the possibility to quickly compare the performance of operators over time, in relation with how each has changed its completion practices. We will have a new post on the Marcellus just after Christmas. In our chat on enelyst, tomorrow (Dec 18th) at 10:30 am EST, we will take a closer look at the Bakken. If you are not yet an ign up for free at: www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18”.enelyst member, you can s For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 30 kbo/d)  is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2SRAuN9   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,997 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Last week I planned a post on the Permian, but noticed that September data for New Mexico was still quite incomplete (100 kbo/d, or ~20% of production has not yet been reported). Unfortunately, it still is, but I did not want to delay this update any further. The graph above shows clearly the astonishing rise in oil production in the Permian in the past 2 years, as oil production from horizontal wells more than doubled to over 2.8 million bo/d in September (which will be visible after upcoming revisions). More than 1.5 million bo/d in September came from ~3,200 horizontal wells that started in 2018. In New Mexico a single operator seems to be responsible for most of the missing production in September: EOG, which is also the largest producer in this state. After you exclude EOG from the graph (using the ‘Operator’ selection), you will see that the apparent drop in September has almost disappeared.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells. By default they are grouped and averaged by the year in which they started production. With this setting, you’ll find in the bottom plot that well productivity improved significantly in the past 5 years. Wells that started in 2013 recovered 77 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years, on average, while this more than doubled to 183 thousand barrels of oil for wells that started 3 years later. Since 2016 the pace of improvements appears to have slowed down, as you’ll see by following the 2017/2018 curves.   The final tab shows the performance of the leading operators. You’ll see the effects of the acquisition of RSP Permian by Concho, and the missing production for EOG in New Mexico in September. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This kind of plot doesn’t assume any kind of decline behavior, but a harmonic decline (b factor of 1), will show up as a straight line with the given settings. The 2,215 horizontal wells that started in 2016 (light brown curve) are on track to recover each around 200 thousand barrels of oil, once they have declined to an average production rate of 100 bo/d. Newer wells appear to be on track to do slightly better than that. Tomorrow we will have a new show at enelyst (live chat combined with images), where we will take a closer look at the latest Permian data. The show will be available here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at enelyst.com. Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LUFMoY   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,406 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production from horizontal wells in this state set another record in August, at 17 Bcf/d. An important factor behind this was a large number of wells that were brought online during the month; 108, the highest in almost 4 years. Almost 25% of total gas production in August came from just 265 wells, that each produced at a rate higher than 10 MMcf/d (change ‘Show production by’ to ‘Production level’ to see this).   On average though, new wells peak at a rate of 10 MMcf/d, similar as in 2017 (see “Well quality”).   The 5 largest natural gas operators were all at or close to their historical highs in August (see “Top operators”). Cabot is now in the lead with 2.4 Bcf/d operated production, with almost all its wells in Susquehanna County. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain year. For more recent and granular data, you can change this grouping to quarter or month, using the ‘Show wells by’ selection.   In the 2nd tab (“Cumulative production ranking”), the counties with horizontal wells are ranked by their cumulative gas production through August. Susquehanna is clearly in the lead, followed by Bradford. You can change this ranking to the level of well, in order to see the best performing wells to date. It will reveal that of the 8,400 wells, 9 have produced now each more than 17 Bcf, all of which are operated by Cabot or Chesapeake.   Early next week I will have a new update on the Permian, followed by the Eagle Ford later in the week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2PLW8Br     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,469 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard January oil production in North Dakota was unchanged from the month before, at 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. In January, which is typically a slow month, just 85 wells started production. The growth in natural gas production has been steeper in the past few years. Compared with January 2015, natural gas production rose by 88%, versus 18% for oil. The reason for this is that almost all wells experience a rising gas oil ratio, and even stronger for newer wells.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab, you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells. After several years of improving initial well productivity, the 2018 vintage eked out another small gain.   All 5 leading operators in North Dakota started the year at a higher production level than a year earlier (“Top operators”). Continental Resources was the first operator in the history of the state to reach 200 thousand barrels of oil production capacity in January. It doubled its output in the past 2 years. From our analytics service (Professional), we can see how Continental Resources has changed its completion practices in the last couple of years:   In this dashboard we can see that Continental Resources did not change the length of its laterals by much since 2013 (yellow curve), but it did almost quadruple the amount of proppant used, from 3 million pounds per completion in 2013, to 12 million pounds in 2017/2018 (shown by the pink curve). The impact that this had on the amount of oil recovered in the first 12 months is shown in the plots on the right side; the bottom plot shows the same information, but now normalized by lateral length (1,000 feet).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The almost 1,800 horizontal wells that started in 2012 have now recovered just above 200 thousand barrels, and are now producing at a rate of 40 bo/d, on average. The 971 wells that started 5 years later (2017) are, with an average recovery of 175 thousand barrels of oil after 14 months on production, not far behind, and they are still operating at a rate of 227 bo/d.   Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania, which just released January production data as well (already available in our subscription services!). It just set another record at over 18 Bcf/d.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ueHidA   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,639 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards November gas production showed another big gain, as more than 0.3 Bcf/d was added. Total gas production for the month was 18 Bcf/d, 16% higher than a year ago. The 759 wells that started production in 2018 contributed 6.5 Bcf/d to the November numbers, or 36%. This is typically a far higher percentage in the oil basins, as you can see in our other posts, which is mostly caused by a steeper decline of oil versus gas.   The production profiles of all these wells can be found in the 2nd tab (‘Well quality’). By default, they are averaged by the year in which the wells started production. The bottom plot shows the cumulative production versus time graphs, and they clearly reveal how each year well productivity improved. One main driver has been the increase in reservoir stimulation; wells in 2018 were completed with almost 17 million pounds of proppant, on average, while this was only 4 million pounds six years earlier.   The 2 largest gas operators, Cabot and Chesapeake, both increased their output in November, as you’ll find in the final tab (‘Top operators’). Cabot almost exclusively operates in Susquehanna County, where the best well results can be found. There it is responsible for over 60% of the gas produced. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain quarter. The 348 wells that started in Q4 2013 have each recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas, and they are still producing at 1.3 MMcf/d, on average. Newer wells appear so far to be on a trajectory to do well above those numbers.   That well productivity has rapidly grown over time is also visible in the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’). The average cumulative production in the first 2 years is plotted there, and based on this metric performance doubled in just a couple of years.   Early next week we’ll be back with a post on the Niobrara. If you don’t like to wait to get access to the latest data, I have good news for you. In just 1 or 2 weeks, we’ll be launching a new subscription level (‘Basic’), for which you can get access to our analytics platform for a very low fee ($52 per user / month). No need to install anything, full-screen dashboards, maps with all individual horizontal wells plotted, more filtering options and much more.   We’ll be in Houston in the 2nd week of February, for the NAPE summit. Come visit our booth, or contact us if you like to meet us during that week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HEHe02   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March from all 15,294 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009.     Oil production in the Permian has kept its upward trajectory through the first quarter of this year. The percentage growth since mid last year was even larger in New Mexico (50%), than in Texas (toggle the basins in the ‘Basin’ selection to see this).   Despite the increase in drilling & completion operations, well productivity has not deteriorated in recent quarters. The ‘Well quality’ tab shows the production profiles for all wells that started in a particular year, and here you can see that on average, recent wells are tracking the performance of wells that started in 2016. Those are on a path to recover ~200 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   In the bottom graph in the ‘Well status’ overview you can see the percentage of wells that are producing at a certain production level. In March, just over 400 wells were producing above 800 bo/d (a new record). The percentage of wells that are producing below 50 bo/d has remained steady at about 50% in the past couple of years.   The 4 leading oil producers in this basin are producing at or near record output levels, as shown in the final tab (‘top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.   If you want to figure out which operator has the best average well results, the ‘Productivity ranking’ tab is a good place to start. Here you can see the ranking of all operators by the average cumulative production over the first 24 months. If you change this measurement period to 12 months, and select only the years 2016/17 using the ‘Year of first flow’ selection, you can see that of the large operators (>100 operated wells), EOG scores the best, with an average cumulative oil production of 207 thousand barrels in the first year for all its 147 wells that started producing in 2016 & 2017 (Jan-April only).   Early next week I will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on all covered states in the US. We will be present at the URTeC  in Houston later this month, so if you would like to meet us, or learn more about our upcoming analytics services, I hope to see you there.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.  For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/04/permian-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through December 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,706 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania ended last year at over 18 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth rate of 2 Bcf/d. This was the result of the addition of 6.8 Bcf/d from the just over 800 horizontal wells that started production in 2018, minus the 4.8 Bcf/d decline from legacy wells. Such a large contribution from new wells (6.8 Bcf/d in a year) has not been seen before in Pennsylvania. A major factor behind this result is the increase in well stimulation. Newer wells are completed with over 18 million pounds of proppant on average per well, versus less than 14 million pounds per well in 2017. In our ShaleProfile Analytics service, you can analyze this by operator, or even by well.   Initial well productivity improved again in 2018, as you’ll find in the top chart in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The bottom chart shows that wells that started production in 2017 are on a path to recover 4 Bcf of natural gas in the first 2 years on production. The 2018 vintage has even a slightly better start.   The 5 largest natural gas producers in Pennsylvania produced each more than 1.5 Bcf/d at the end of 2018. Cabot is in the lead, with 2.7 Bcf/d of operated output. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain year. The 1,188 horizontal wells that started production in 2014 have on average recovered most natural gas, at just over 4 Bcf. They also appear to be on a path to recover more than the wells from the following 2 years. But the wells that have started production since 2017 clearly have a better start, peaking at over 10,000 Mcf/d on average.   In the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’), you’ll find in more detail how well performance has changed over time. If you change the metric to measure the cumulative gas production in the first 3 months (instead of 24 months), you’ll note that, according to this metric, well productivity has more than tripled in the past 8 years. Newer wells recover on average 0.9 Bcf in the first 3 (calendar) months on production. For wells in Susquehanna County, this is even above 1.5 Bcf (use the ‘County’ selection to filter on this county). By the middle of next week, we will have a new post on the Permian. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ExomN0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through April 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,703 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2005 onward, through April. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota stayed flat in April m-o-m, at 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production continued to trend upward and reached 2.9 Bcf/d. Following slow winter months, 104 wells came online in April, slightly more than a year earlier (95). About 90% of all this production in North Dakota comes from only 4 counties: McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn and Williams. These are also the only counties where rigs were actively drilling horizontal wells in the past month. The “Top operators” overview shows that the top 5 operators are all below their all-time highs. Note that ConocoPhillips’ production jumped, as it had shut in more wells than the other operators during the winter. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 horizontal wells that began production in the 3rd quarter of 2017 (shown in the red curve) had the best start. They recovered on average 230 thousand barrels of oil in the first 20 months, and are still at an average production rate of 172 bo/d. If you extrapolate their production, you’ll find that they may recover another 70 thousand barrels of oil, before they’ve fallen to 50 bo/d. One important reason behind the stagnating well performance is that since that time (2017 Q3), operators have not increased proppant loadings and lateral lengths any further in this basin. The following screenshot, taken from a dashboard in our analytics service, shows the location of all these horizontal wells in North Dakota, colored by the gas/oil ratio in April. The bottom right plot shows the gas/oil ratio for all vintages since 2008, versus cumulative production. You can see that the curves point upward and that some saw a recent acceleration in GOR. There are other areas where these effects are even stronger, and where they also appear to negatively impact EURs. I’ll be happy to show you that in a personal online demo if you would like to know more about this. Finally, I wanted to share with you that we just went live with a brand-new REST API. From now on, our data subscribers can query our database on demand, instead of waiting for the weekly database update. This helps staying up-to-date, as every day we are automatically refreshing data from the many data sources we use. If you’re interested yourself in always having access to the latest production, completion, and location data on horizontal shale wells, just take a look. You’ll find a sample of the data and a description of the structure.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released April production data recently, followed by updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/31LvS0D Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,540 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Since the low point two years ago, oil production in the Eagle Ford has kept growing. I expect that after revisions August production will eventually come in at around 1.3 million bo/d (~100 kbo/d higher than shown now).   Natural gas production follows a very similar pattern. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you’ll find that in 2018 total gas production was just below 6 Bcf/d. The underlying decline is clearly visible in this graph; you can see that the horizontal wells from before 2015 peaked at over 1.6 million bo/d in Dec 2014, and that the same group produced just 0.3 million bo/d in August.   The main reason for the recent increase in oil production is not higher well productivity, as this has not significantly changed in the past 2 years (see ‘Well quality’). But about 5 wells have been completed every day in 2017 & 2018, on average, versus just 4 in 2016.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Declines here are steeper than in the Permian or the Bakken, and that means that a greater part of the oil EUR is recovered in the first year on production (about half). I wanted to have a closer look at the well performance of the two leading operators, EOG & ConocoPhillips. Here you find this comparison, for horizontal wells that started between 2014 & 2017, taken from our ShaleProfile Analytics service. For each operator & year combination, you can see the performance curve on the right plot. Striking here is the difference in well behavior. EOGs wells decline in a fairly straight line from the peak, while the wells operated by ConocoPhillips are able to maintain a higher flow rate for several months, before they display a steepening of the decline. Early next week we will have a post on the Permian again.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Q2eRwV   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,047 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production came in above 3 million bo/d (after revisions), at a y-o-y growth rate of 1 million bo/d. More than 4,200 horizontal wells were completed in 2018 through November, double the number in the same period in 2016.   Average well productivity has only increased slightly since 2016, after big gains in the years before, as the ‘Well quality’ tab shows.   The 2 largest producers, Pioneer Natural Resources & Concho Resources, are now above 250 thousand bo/d of operated capacity (see “Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that recent wells (2016/2017) are on a path to recover on average about 300 thousand barrels of oil, before their production rate has fallen to 40 bo/d. Associated gas production is high in the Permian, at well over 9 Bcf/d. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you can find the average gas production for the same wells. Newer wells are on average likely to recover 1.5 Bcf of natural gas or more.   Today (Tuesday) at noon (EST) we will also present an update on the Permian and the Eagle Ford on enelyst, where we will share our insights in these basins based on the latest data. Last month many of you subscribed to our analytics service, which offers access to more dashboards, well data, and more recent production data. Thank you! The cheapest subscription version, Analyst, costs just $52/month per user, and you can try it for 1 month for only $19. With this, you will experience some of the analytical power of ShaleProfile Analytics.   Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HgILaR   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,263 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota dropped 1% m-o-m to 1,376 kbo/d in November, after a record output in October. The main factor behind this drop appears to be the smaller number of wells that went into production in October (119) and November (108), after a busy summer (~140 completions per month).   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”) shows that the wells that came online in 2018 perform slightly better on average than the ones from the year before.   Each of the 5 largest operators produces over 100 thousand barrels of oil per day (gross) in this state (“Top operators”), and all of them increased output in 2018. Together they are responsible for over 40% of all oil produced in November. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The graph shows clear improvements in initial well productivity over the last couple of years. Interesting is however also that wells from the 2008-2011 period decline slightly slower than those from 2012-2015. This effect remains even after correcting for refracs (which is possible in our advanced analytics service).   The gas/oil ratio (GOR) has steadily climbed in North Dakota, as is depicted by the orange curve in the bottom graph on the 9th tab (“Gas oil ratio”). The reasons behind that are revealed in the plot above it; the GOR normally climbs over the life of a well, but newer wells are also starting with a higher GOR, and see their GOR rising faster. In the coming days we’ll have a new update on gas production in Pennsylvania, on which we will also report in our chat tomorrow morning on enelyst (10:30 am EST). For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2RSy58n   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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