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About this blog

Visualizing US shale oil & gas production

The blog contains still images from interactive dashboards available on each blog post.
To follow the instructions detailed in every post, use the interactive dashboards. You can also explore the dashboards to uncover different insights and trends.

Entries in this blog

Permian – update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,140 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through July. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Output has continued to rise fast in the first half year, adding over 400 thousand barrels of oil per day from horizontal wells. The apparent drop in July is as usual due to incomplete data. As the graph above shows, more than 75% of oil production in July came from the ~5.7 thousand wells that started since the beginning of 2017. Natural gas production from these wells is also trending higher, and has now passed 8 Bcf/d.   The “Cumulative production profiles” plot in the ‘Well quality’ tab reveals the steadily increasing well performance in the past couple of years. Since 2016 this performance has increased just slightly. The average well that started in 2016 recovered ~200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2.5 years (30 months) on production.   This area counts many operators; the top 3 operators, Pioneer Natural Resources, EOG & Concho Resources, produce together just 23% of total production. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Over the past 5 years, laterals have increased by almost 50%, while proppant loadings more than tripled. This has greatly affected well productivity, as you can see by the ever higher recovery trajectories. But based on preliminary data, it appears that the proppant per lateral foot ratio has slightly fallen in Q2 this year, as lateral lengths increased faster than proppant usage. You can analyze this in more detail in our ShaleProfile Analytics service. Recent wells are on average on track to recover just over 300 thousand barrels of oil, before their rate has dropped to 20 bo/d (which for most operators is probably still profitable).   Early next week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all 10 covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Jtl5zq     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Marcellus (PA) – update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,512 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production from horizontal wells came in higher again in September, at 17.4 Bcf/d. Output has grown by about 10% in the 4 preceding months, driven mostly by an increase in well completions; In both August and September, 107 wells started production, the highest since the end of 2014.   This increase in completion activity didn’t have a negative effect so far on well productivity. In the ‘Well quality’ tab you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells, averaged by the year in which they started. Group the wells by the quarter in which they started (using the ‘Show wells by selection’), and you’ll see that the best initial performance came from the wells that started in Q3 this year, at over 13 MMcf/d.   Of the 5 leading operators, Cabot stood out as it increased gas production by 18% in just 2 months (see the final tab). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain quarter. Well design has changed significantly over the years; in 2012 about 4 million pounds of proppant was used per completion, on average, while this has recently increased to over 18 million pounds. The plot clearly shows how this has had a positive impact on well productivity. Early next week I will have a new update on the Niobrara.   If you missed our live chat last Tuesday with John Sodergreen and Het Shah, about the Permian Basin, you can still read back our discussion here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. Next week Tuesday, at 10:30 am (EST), we’ll take a closer look at gas production in Pennsylvania, and there is enough time to ask questions. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18” Happy Thanksgiving! Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2DVzQLg   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Permian – update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 18,480 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Permian kept rising at a rate of ~1 million bo/d y-o-y through October. I expect that after revisions total output topped 3 million bo/d. That also means that almost 60% of October oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as is visualized in the graph above. Gas production has seen a very similar growth path, and is now over 9 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Despite increased completion activity, well productivity has still slightly increased since 2016, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Recent wells are on a path to recover on average around 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production. Important factors behind this increase in well performance are longer laterals, and bigger frac jobs. The following screenshot, from our ShaleProfile Analytics service, shows that average cumulative oil production in the six months rose on both sides of the state border since 2012. Interestingly, results are on average better in New Mexico, even though laterals are shorter and proppant loadings are smaller. The final tab shows that all 5 leading operators have roughly tripled their output in the past 3 years. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Initial well productivity has kept rising through the last quarters. The more than 1,000 wells that started in Q3 last year peaked over 800 bo/d in their first full calendar month. Let’s also take a look at the terminal decline in this basin, as we did in our last 2 posts, even though the average well age is much younger here. I again used the ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result: The performance is shown of all the horizontal oil wells in the Permian, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than May 2016 (this ensures that we have at least 30 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 3,183 such wells, from in total 6,065 horizontal oil wells that started in the Permian in these 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the number of months since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline, calculated based on the plot above. If you have also seen the previous 2 posts, you’ll note that terminal decline rates are lower here than in the DJ Basin & the Eagle Ford. The decline rates drop to a level between 15 and 25%, before they stabilize or start to increase again. As noted above, data after 30 months is not complete (not all wells have more historical data). Also here you’ll see that younger wells experience larger decline rates. Again I would like to emphasize that part of that is expected, as they earlier in their hyperbolic decline curve, where decline rates are naturally higher. But it still appears that even if you correct for that, younger wells decline faster. Likely there are several effects in play, such as changing economic limits & completion designs and more infill drilling. As more and more wells enter this phase, this could increase the decline rate of the whole population (e.g. a certain vintage), negatively impacting EURs and reserves. If you have any thoughts on this topic, please share them below in the comments section.   Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. We also plan to launch a new (cheaper!) version of our Analytics service then. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Eagle Ford - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,912 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through October.   Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production increased slightly in the Eagle Ford in 2018, as operators completed ~10% more wells than in 2017, based on preliminary data. Once revision data is in, I expect that October production will be close to 1.3 million bo/d. Gas production from these wells is good for almost 6 Bcf/d (toggle ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Average initial well productivity almost didn’t change year-over-year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. If you click there on 2018 in the legend, you’ll note that the wells that started last year are so far closely tracking the performance of the 2017 wells. Although newer wells are peaking at more than double the rate than wells that started in 2011/2012, they are also declining faster. I expect that after 2-3 years on production, they have declined to a very similar production rate as those earlier wells had at that age. That becomes especially apparent if you select for example just the wells from 2012 and 2016 (keep the ‘Ctrl’ key in when selecting both of these years), and if you change the axis to a linear scale. I’ll show you more about these decline rates later in this post.   Of the top 5 operators in the Eagle Ford, only the 2 largest (EOG & ConocoPhillips) set new production records in September, The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. I’ve preselected the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford formations. As I showed last week for the DJ Basin, also here you can see that the decline steepens once wells have reached low levels of production. How large are the decline rates here? To answer this question, I again used our new ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result:     Here the performance is shown of all the horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that have produced predominantly oil, and which fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than Nov 2015 (this ensures that we have at least 36 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 5,628 such wells, from in total 11,554 horizontal oil wells that started in the Eagle Ford in those 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the month since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline of all these wells. Three observations: After annual decline rates have slightly stabilized (after month 26 or so), you can see that the annual decline is close to, or above 20%. Each year, the annual decline rate is higher. Some of this is expected, as younger wells are in an earlier part of their decline curve, where the decline is steeper. But even if you correct for that (e.g. by comparing the performance of 2 consecutive vintages shifted by 12 months), the decline rates of younger wells are higher. In particular, the wells from 2014 never really go below 25% annual decline. Once wells reach a very low production rate (~10 bo/d), the decline rate accelerates again. A special thank you to Mike Shellman for sharing a wealth of articles and oilfield knowledge regarding this topic. Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We also still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Tomorrow at 10:30 (EST) we’ll also cover the Eagle Ford in our enelyst chat. Later this week, or early next week, there will be a new update on the Permian Basin.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MMYWh2   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Eagle Ford - update through July 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,344 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through July. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards In July 228 horizontal wells started production, the highest number in more than 3 years. Although the graph above shows a dip in production in July, this is partially because of reporting lag, and I expect that when these wells have a full month on production in August total output will show a bump.   Average production profiles haven’t changed much in the past couple of years, especially since 2017, as you can see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Laterals (at ~ 7k feet) didn’t get any longer in 2018, while proppant intensity increased with about 10%. More information on these trends can be learned in our ShaleProfile Analytics service.   EOG is already for more than 5 years the top oil producer in this area, and it currently operates about 20% of total production capacity (“Top operators”).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. These curves appear to bend slightly downwards, hinting at a hyperbolic decline with a b-value smaller than 1. Production profiles with a harmonic decline (= hyperbolic decline with a b-value of 1) show up on this type of plot as a straight line. The wells that started in 2014 (the year which saw the greatest number of new producers), are on track to recover on average 150 thousand barrels of oil (and ~0.6 Bcf of natural gas) before hitting a production rate of 30 bo/d.   Devon and ConocoPhillips are still showing the best well results on average, as measured by the cumulative oil production in the first 2 years (see “Productivity ranking”).   Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered US states.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Jtl5zq     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

US - update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 97,332 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through September 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.7 Gbo and 106 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag. September production data for New Mexico is rather incomplete, with over 100 thousand bo/d still missing. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards   After all revisions are in, oil production from these horizontal wells should come in well above 6 million bo/d for September. The ~8,000 wells that started in the first 9 months of 2018 will then already have contributed ~3 million bo/d in September. Never before in the history of US shale was so much new production capacity added in 9 months. As the total decline of older wells (<2018) was over 2 million bo/d (as shown by the top of the light blue area) in this period, the actual growth rate was a little below 1 million bo/d. If you switch to natural gas (using the ‘Product’ selection), you’ll see that gas production from the same wells never really experienced a drop, and grew by ~15 Bcf/d in the past 2 years to 55 Bcf/d (excluding WV) in September.   Initial well productivity grew steadily over the past 10 years (‘Well quality’ tab), but the rate of improvements appears to have slowed down recently.   You’ll find the status of the more than 100,000 horizontal wells that have been drilled in the ‘Well status’ tab. Only 1% of these wells have been plugged and abandoned so far.   The final dashboard gives an overview of the largest operators. EOG is well in the lead, with around 0.5 million bo/d of operated production capacity. Its September production numbers for New Mexico are highly incomplete, so the final drop should be ignored. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4,300 wells that started production in 2011 (represented by the red curve) peaked at a rate of 273 bo/d, and they have now declined to 22 bo/d, recovering almost 150 thousand barrels of oil in the meantime (all average numbers). The 5,300 wells that started 5 years later (2016 – light brown curve), peaked at 517 bo/d, and they already recovered the same amount of oil within 22 months, on average. They are on a trajectory to do roughly another 100 thousand barrels of oil, before having declined to a similar production rate of ~20 bo/d. More granular and recent data will be visible after grouping these wells by the quarter or month in which they started production.   Next month we will be at the NAPE summit in Houston. Come visit our booth if you have the chance! Before the NAPE we plan to start offering the Basic version of our ShaleProfile Analytics service. For just a very small annual fee ($624 = $52/month) you can already enjoy all the benefits that this service offers beyond the free blog here, such as maps with the exact location of these wells, full-screen dashboards, and with always access to the latest data.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released November production data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HgzW2F   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

shaleprofile

shaleprofile

Eagle Ford - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,019 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Eagle Ford during 2018 stayed within a few percents of the 1.3 million bo/d level set in December 2017, and I expect that to hold also after upcoming upward revisions. Through November, operators completed 10% more wells than in the same period in 2017.   Well productivity hasn’t changed much in the past year, as you can easily see in the bottom graph of the ‘Well quality’ tab.   All leading operators were off their peak production in November (see ‘Top operators’), although EOG & ConocoPhillips only marginally so. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. So far most oil has been recovered by the 4,465 wells that started in 2014; they are now at 155 thousand barrels of oil and at a flow rate of 31 bo/d, on average. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 30 thousand barrels of oil more once they hit the same level. We have seen quite some interest in the Austin Chalk formation in this area. Production is increasing, although from a small base. This screenshot, from our advanced analytics service, compares the performance of wells in the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford, for the 2015-2017 vintages, with only oil wells selected.   Clearly, recent Austin Chalk wells are outperforming those in the Eagle Ford. Early next week we will have a post covering data from 10 states in the US.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VChWlm   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Permian – update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,650 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in the Permian from horizontal wells has continued to rise at an astonishing pace, adding about 1 million bo/d in production capacity in the 12 months through August, to about 2.7 million bo/d (with upward revisions coming). The main driver behind this growth is the high level of completion activity; so far more than 2,800 horizontal wells have been completed this year, double the level of just 2 years ago, and 40% higher than last year. As shown by the blue area in August, those wells that started so far this year were already contributing to more than half of the total output in that month.   Well productivity has not changed by much in the past 2 years, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are so far tracking a recovery slightly ahead of the average 2016 well, which is on a path to recover about 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 30 months on production (and hitting that level with a flow rate of ~100 bo/d).   Concho finalized the acquisition of RSP Permian in July, and is now the leading unconventional oil producer in the Permian (see ‘Top operators’), just ahead of Pioneer Natural Resources.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The improvements in recovery trajectories over the past 8 years are clearly visible here, driven by major changes in well design (longer laterals, bigger frac jobs). However, since early 2016 these trajectories have not shown further clear gains, even though younger wells are still peaking at a higher rate than before. Later today (04.12.'18) we will have a new show at enelyst (live chat combined with images), where we will take a closer look at the Eagle Ford, on which we reported last week. The show will be available here in the enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at enelyst.com.   Early next week I will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. If you are considering to subscribe to our data or analytics service, don’t wait too long! Starting from January 1st, we will raise our prices with a few percent. Request a trial or a demo here, or contact us. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2EeYuH2   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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shaleprofile

US - update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 93,991 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through June. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.1 Gbo and 101.4 Tcf. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards In just one and a half year, production from these wells grew by more than 1.5 million bo/d and 10 Bcf/d. Operators increased the pace of drilling and completion activity, and as the ‘Well quality’ tab shows, average well performance also slightly increased from 2016. Wells were completed with longer laterals on average, and proppant loadings increased even more. You can try out our ShaleProfile Analytics service for more details on these trends, e.g. on an operator/basin basis.   The two largest shale oil operators, EOG and ConocoPhillips, set new records in June (‘Top operators’ tab).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. You can see that wells have been tracking steadily higher recoveries over the past years. Since the end of 2016, the pace of improvements appears to have slowed down.   Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released production figures for August. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2CJZ2DJ     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile  

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shaleprofile

US - update through August 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 96,273 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through August. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.5 Gbo and 104 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oil production from horizontal wells in these states grew by almost 2 million bo/d in the 2 years through August. This growth rate was similar as in the boom years of 2013-14. The Permian was responsible for most of this gain, which you’ll see if you show the production data by ‘Basin’ (using the ‘Show production by’ selection). Natural gas production has been setting new records as well during those 2 years and was above 47 Bcf/d in the basins we cover.   The steady increases in well productivity are shown in the ‘Well status’ tab, where all the oily basins are preselected. The horizontal wells that started in 2018 are so far closely tracking the performance of the ones from 2017.   In the final tab you will find the production histories and location of the largest shale operators. We’ve made a change in this dashboard; now the operators are ranked by their total production in the past 12 months (and not by their total historical production). This makes especially a big difference in the Permian, where several operators have recently increased production at a rapid rate. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Since about 2010 wells have been tracking ever larger ultimate recoveries. The ~1,300 horizontal wells that started in Q4 of 2016 appear so far among the best performers; they have recovered on average 160 thousand barrels of oil and are now at a production rate of ~110 bo/d (from a peak rate of 570 bo/d). These are of course averages, and there are major differences between basins, operators and formations. Major factors behind the changes in well performance are the increases in lateral lengths and the larger frac jobs. In our online analytics service, it is possible to normalize for these factors. Feel free to request a demo, in which we will discuss your interests, or 10-day trial. We sometimes get the question about what we do with wells when they stop producing. In these cases we keep adding 0 production records, to make sure that wells don’t suddenly drop out of the equations, which would lead to a survivorship bias. You can verify this, as the exact well count is shown in the tooltips that appear above the production profiles (this is also represented in the thickness of the curves). Tomorrow at 9:30am EST we will again host a show at enelyst, in which we’ll take a closer look at the Niobrara basin. Join us in the ShaleProfile channel.   Early next week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release October production data by the end of this week. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2EbfM6U   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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Permian – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,523 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards December oil production came in at around 3.1 million bo/d (after revisions), 1 million bo/d higher than a year earlier. Close to 4,400 horizontal wells were completed in 2018, 23% more than in 2017. As is represented by the blue area in December 2018, about 2/3rd of December production came from wells that began production in 2018. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you’ll find that natural gas production increased to almost 10 Bcf/d, which is even more than is produced in the Haynesville Basin. The final tab shows the production histories of the 5 largest operators of horizontal wells. They all have strongly increased output in the past 2 years, and are at or near production highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The wells that started in Q2 2016 (dark brown curve) have now recovered the most oil, with just over 200,000 barrels of oil produced on average. Newer wells are on a slightly higher trajectory. In the 2nd tab you’ll find all counties in the Permian, ranked by cumulative production, from horizontal wells since 2008. Reeves has taken over the 1st spot from Lea County, with 340 million barrels of oil cumulative production. Close to half a million barrels of oil per day were produced in Reeves in December. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by an update on all covered states in the US early next week.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2I0WJhy   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Utah – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 424 horizontal wells in Utah that started production since 2008, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard We’ve just included Utah in our coverage of horizontal drilling in the U.S., bringing the total number of covered states to 12. These 12 states are responsible for 99% of recent horizontal drilling activity based on the Baker Hughes horizontal rig count. Although the absolute amount of oil & gas produced in this state is relatively is low, compared with the other basins you’ve read about here, the growth rate has been pretty high in the past 2 years. Oil production from horizontal wells was 33 thousand bo/d in January this year, while it was only 14 thousand bo/d 2 years earlier. Activity during this period has been concentrated in Duchesne and Uintah County, heart of the Uinta Basin.   This growth coincided with a major increase in well productivity, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells recover on average 130 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production, more than double the amount from wells that began production before 2016.   The final tab shows the top operators in this state. Newfield, the leading operator, has just been acquired by Calgary-based Encana. It has always been the most active player here. The number 2, Crescent Point Energy, showed a big increase in production in 2017. It also has its HQ in Calgary.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here the major increase in well productivity since 2016 is visible. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 300 thousand barrels of oil before hitting a level of 10 bo/d. Of course there are also major differences here between the operators. If you only select Axia Energy, using the “Operator” selection, you’ll find that its wells are far above average.   It therefore clearly ranks as the best performing operator (see the 4th tab, ‘Productivity ranking’), as measured for example by the average amount of oil recovered in the first year. But the best 2 wells so far are operated by Wesco Operating, as you’ll find in the 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’). They recovered each close to 1 million barrels of oil so far. We will from now on include Utah in the monthly US post.   Next week we plan to have updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Wnnelk   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 10,287 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through January. Originally I planned to do a post on the latest data for North Dakota (through February). Unfortunately, not all data that we rely on has been published yet, which is why I decided to do a post on Colorado & Wyoming instead. The update on North Dakota should follow early next week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states started the year at record production (after revisions), at over 620 thousand bo/d. Both states contributed to growth in the past 12 months; Colorado with ~20%, and Wyoming even at almost 50% (although from a lower base). Production in the Powder River Basin has been mostly responsible for the latter, and is now over 120 thousand bo/d. As is shown in the bottom plot on the ‘Well quality’ tab, well productivity made a big jump in 2017, but has not further increased in 2018, based on preliminary data. The big news in the past week was that Chevron bought Anadarko for 32 billion dollar, which is the biggest producer in this area (see “Top operators”). With ~100 thousand bo/d production here, this area represents about 40% of its total oil production from horizontal wells in the US, with almost all of it coming out of Weld County (CO). The following dashboard, from our analytics service (Professional), shows the location and performance of the ~1,300 horizontal wells that Anadarko currently operates in Weld County, which came online between 2013 and 2017 (click the image to see the high-resolution version). In the top-right corner you will find the performance of these wells, by year, in the familiar flow-rate versus cumulative production plot. The 2014 vintage may end up with the best average recovery, as its newer wells appear to decline more rapidly. This area is very gassy, as you can see on the map, and in the gas oil ratio plot on the bottom-right.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Also here you can see that well performance appears to have peaked (at least temporarily) in early 2017, with newer wells on a slightly lower ultimate recovery trajectory. I performed a comparison of well productivity in the DJ Basin versus the Powder River Basin. The result is presented here in the following screenshot (again from our analytics service), where I’ve selected all the wells in these 2 areas, that began production between 2015 and 2017. In both basins did well productivity increase over these 3 years, but the wells in the Powder River Basin are clearly on a path to a larger oil recovery. More gas is recovered in the DJ Basin. We were again happy to find the WSJ using our subscription service to get insights into tight oil & gas production trends: Frackers, Chasing Fast Oil Output, Are on a Treadmill. As mentioned, we should have a new post on North Dakota early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,788 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania fell by 1% m-o-m to 18.1 Bcf/d, after setting a new record in January. Compared with a year earlier, this was just over 2 Bcf/d higher. An important reason behind the recent highs is that well productivity has continued to improve, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 748 wells that started in 2017 are on a path to recover more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, on average, more than double the amount that was recovered by wells that started 5 years earlier. As in many basins, proppant loadings have increased significantly in the past few years. In 2012 wells were completed with about 4.3 million pounds of proppants, on average. By the end of last year, this number was close to 18 million pounds. Almost all leading operators started the year with record production (“Top operators”). EQT, which bought Rice Energy, is the largest producer with 3.5 Bcf/d of production in February. However, as both entities are still reported separately, it now comes 4th in the ranking. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain year. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that newer wells are on a trajectory to recover more than 10 Bcf on average, before they have declined to a level of 100 Mcf/d. If you group the wells by quarter (using the “Show wells by” selection), the wells are sorted and averaged by quarter instead, which allows you to see more granularity and recent data. It also reveals that the 195 wells that started in Pennsylvania in the 4th quarter last year had a remarkably good start, recovering 1 Bcf on average in the first 3 months on production. We were happy to see that Trent Jacobs, from the JPT, wrote an excellent article about the other major shale gas basin, the Haynesville, last week, and that he used our analytics service for that: New Operators, Well Designs Drive Record Gas Production in Haynesville. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by updates on the Permian and the Haynesville Basin next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J1aQnD   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Fayetteville (AR) – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 5,773 horizontal wells in Arkansas that started production from 2006 onward, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards While we were waiting for some revision data for Pennsylvania, we finished adding Arkansas to our ShaleProfile data platform, which this post is all about. Relative to the other states we cover, not much shale oil & gas is produced in Arkansas nowadays. However, it is home to the Fayetteville shale gas basin, which produced in its heyday close to 3 Bcf/d of natural gas. In March this year, it was down to 1.3 Bcf/d. The graph above shows how output grew rapidly from 2007 to 2012, when natural gas prices hit a low. Interest started to wane, and since 2016 fewer than 100 horizontal wells have been completed. If you change the “show production by” to “Operator (actual)”, you will see that most of the gas in this play has been produced by a single operator, Southwestern Energy. However, last year it decided to exit the area and it sold its holdings to privately owned Flywheel Energy. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of all the horizontal wells in this area. It reveals that well productivity improved rapidly through 2010, but then rose no further. In 2014 and 2015, the last years that saw more than 100 well completions, well results actually declined. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The 562 horizontal wells that began in 2013 have now recovered each 1.5 Bcf. Their average production rate has dropped to just 334 Mcf/d. Almost all production in this play came from just 5 counties, which you’ll find in the 2nd tab (“Cumulative production ranking”), which ranks all counties by cumulative gas production since 2006. The following screenshot, taken from a dashboard in our analytics service, shows the well results in 5 major US tight gas plays, as measured by the average cumulative gas production in the first 2 years on production. This clearly demonstrates that the Fayetteville and the Barnett could not compete with the Haynesville and the Appalachian basin. Although we will probably not have separate updates about Arkansas anytime soon, it will now be part of the general “US updates”. Our Analytics and Data subscribers will always have access to the latest data in this state.   Yesterday we were glad to see that the Wall Street Journal decided to use again our service for their article about Pioneer Natural Resources. Find here the original story (behind paywall): A Leader of America’s Fracking Boom Has Second Thoughts.   If revised data is released soon, we will have a post on Pennsylvania later this week. Next week we will be back with updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford, and a show on enelyst on Tuesday at noon (ET). For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J9i7Qu Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through September 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 9,508 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through September. Since the last post, we’ve also added several other regions in these 2 states, and they are included here. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards In August a new record was set, at over 0.5 million bo/d. After revisions are in I believe September will show a higher level again. Weld County produces about 75% of this output (group production by ‘County’ to see this).   Decline rates are fairly high, and most wells are at or below 20 bo/d after 4 years on production, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. In the ‘Well status’ tab the statuses are shown for all these wells. After selecting only ‘First flow’, you’ll note that the number of wells that started production in July and August (>160) was almost back to the record levels in 2014.   The final tab shows the leading operators and the location of their operated wells. Extraction Oil & Gas tripled its output in the past 1.5 years, and is now the number 3.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production of all these horizontal wells is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. A major jump in average well productivity can be seen near the end of 2016, marked by the pink and red curves at the top, after which it has slightly fallen.   The 2nd tab ranks all wells by their cumulative production. The best three horizontal wells since 2009 have now produced more than 0.5 million barrels of oil, and they are all located in Campbell County (WY).   Last week we published a post on gas production in Pennsylvania. Tomorrow (Tuesday), at 10:30 EST, we’ll go over that in more detail in our show at enelyst: enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18” We have upgraded our data release procedure, and are now able to share on a weekly basis our database with ShaleProfile Data subscribers. More info can be found here. Later this week we will have an update on the Eagle Ford, followed by the Permian early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2PWT8pP   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,747 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania started this year at a record 18.3 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth of 2.5 Bcf/d (16%).   In 2018 10% more wells began production compared with the year before (828 vs. 748) and, as you can find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, they peaked at a 16% higher rate (11,900 Mcf/d vs. 10,300 Mcf/d), on average.   The 2 largest natural gas producers in the state, Cabot and Chesapeake, started the year both with a new production record (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. The 195 horizontal wells that came online in Q4 2018 (blue curve at the top) peaked at the highest rate ever, 13,700 Mcf/d, which was also double the peak rate of the wells that started 5 years earlier (Q4 2013). Those 372 wells have now recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas each and they are still flowing at 1,200 Mcf/d, on average.   In the 4th tab operators are ranked by their average well productivity, as measured by the cumulative gas production in the first year on production. Cabot, which is active in a very prolific area in Susquehanna County, comes out on top, with an average result of 3.3 Bcf in the first year. If you only select 2017 (using the “first production year” selection), this result further increases to almost 5 Bcf.   Later this week we plan to have a post on a new state! Next week, we’ll show again the latest production data for the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HT6oa6   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through March 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,853 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through March 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania dropped by a small amount in March, but remained close to January’s record output, at 18.2 Bcf/d. In the first quarter of this year, 147 wells started production, almost unchanged from a year earlier (142). New wells peak at a level of around 12,000 Mcf/d, which is roughly 20% higher than the peak rate of wells that came online in 2017 (‘Well quality’ tab). Range Resources was the only operator in the top 5 that increased production in March and it is now just above 2 Bcf/d of operated production (final tab). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. If you go through these quarters (click on a quarter in the legend to highlight the respective curve), you’ll note that initial well productivity has steadily improved over the years. The 195 horizontal wells that started in the final quarter last year had again the best start and recovered 1.4 Bcf of natural gas in the first 4 months on production, on average. If they follow a similar decline path as earlier wells, they will recover around 10 Bcf of gas each, before they’ve fallen to an average production rate of 500 Mcf/d. In our subscription service you can easily find that these new wells are completed with nearly 18 million pounds of proppants, on average. This is double the amount that was used just 4 years ago. While output in Susquehanna, the most prolific county, is still rising rapidly, other counties appear to be over their peak. See for example the production in Lycoming and Wyoming in the screenshot below. It reveals the total gas production in the top 6 counties in Pennsylvania. The map on the right shows the exact location of the horizontal wells in these counties. Click on the image to see the high-resolution version. This dashboard is available in our online analytics service. Next week, we will have new posts on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Texas recently released production data through February/March, which is now already available in our analytics and data services. Next week Tuesday at noon (ET) we will present a briefing on all the major tight oil basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HHKJkB Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through May 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through May from all 16,326 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. In this update we were able to include more recent wells, which explains the higher (~10%) production level.   Output has surged higher in the first 5 months of 2018, following the rapid rise in 2017. As the graph shows, about 75% of total oil production in May came from wells that started producing since the beginning of last year. Associated gas production has followed a similar growth path, and is now well above 7 Bcf/d (switch product to ‘gas’). By selecting only New Mexico (using the ‘Basin’ selection), you can see that oil production in this area of the Permian really accelerated since September last year, and is now close to half a million barrels of oil per day. Almost double the number of wells started production in the first 5 months compared with last year (331 vs 176).   In the “Well quality” tab the production profiles for all these wells are visualized. The bottom graph presents the cumulative production for each vintage. You can see that the wells that started in early 2016 are now closing in on the 200 thousand barrels of oil mark, on average, after about 2.5 years of production. It appears that more recent wells will do slightly better than that.   In  the ‘Well status’ overview, you’ll find the status of all these wells. If you select the status ‘First flow’, you can see that in the past year more than 300 wells started production each month, a level far higher than in the past.   All leading operators are at, or near, record production levels (‘Top operators’). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Recent wells are peaking at an average rate of ~700 bo/d in their first full calendar month, and are tracking a recovery slightly above the wells that started in Q2 2016. Early next week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on the Niobrara.   Don’t want to wait to see the latest production data for each state? Check out our ShaleProfile Analytics service, in which we keep the data always up-to-date. For example, it already contains over 80% of June production in Texas, as well as Q2 for Ohio. If you’re interested, you can start with a free trial. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2wth6fY     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,527 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through February. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota fell in February by 5% m-o-m to 1.34 million bo/d. As is common in the winter months, few new wells started production (64), and more wells were shut-in. Gas production also saw a drop, but the gas oil ratio continued to rise; now 2 Mcf of natural gas is produced with every barrel of oil. Seven years ago this was only 1 Mcf per barrel. Initial well performance increased again in 2018, on average, but by a smaller amount than in the previous three years (see the “Well quality” tab). All 5 leading operators in North Dakota saw a decline in production m-o-m (“Top operators”), but they were still up y-o-y, with the exception of ConocoPhillips. This operator reduced output by 20% in February.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 wells that started in Q3 2017, represented by the light green curve, had the best initial performance. These wells peaked at 719 bo/d, and after 1.5 years on production they recovered 219 thousand barrels of oil, on average. Currently they are producing at a rate of 175 bo/d. Although the wells that began production between 2008 and 2011 had a less impressive start than more recent wells, on average, they also had a smaller decline rate. It appears that they will beat at least some of the later vintages in ultimate recovery, even if you correct for the fact that some of these wells have been refractured.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which has also released February production data some time ago. Of course, this data has already been available in our subscription services a day after it was published. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2IQ9ps0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 99,579 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through November 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.1 Gbo and 109 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production from these wells will come in at close to 6.5 million bo/d, after upcoming revisions. The number of well completions in 2018 through November was more than 20% higher, compared with the same period a year earlier.   The production profiles for all these wells can be found in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The major oil basins are selected and the performance is averaged for all the wells that started in a particular year. Well productivity clearly rose every year since 2011, with again a minor improvement in 2018.   The total oil & gas production from the 5 largest operators can be viewed in the final tab. EOG produced in November almost double the amount of oil as the number 2, ConocoPhillips. They all significantly increased production in 2018. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. As the curves on this plot demonstrate, the decline behavior of these wells is typically quite predictable. By extrapolating them until a certain economic limit, you can make a reasonable estimate of ultimate recovery. You can also do so for your favorite operator, and/or basin, just by selecting them using the filters. The 5,338 wells that started in 2016 recovered just over 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production, on average, as well as 0.5 Bcf of natural gas (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see that). This constitutes a decline of ~82% in these 2 years (from 516 bo/d to 93 bo/d). We are happy to see that The Wall Street Journal has also started to use our services, with this article (behind a paywall): Chevron, Exxon Mobil Tighten Their Grip on Fracking.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will soon release January production data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2F6dk1B Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through September 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,698 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through September. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Although from the above graph it appears that oil production in the Eagle Ford has moved sideways in 2018, due to the typical reporting lag in Texas, I expect to see that after revisions production from horizontal wells will come in at 1.3 – 1.4 million bo/d in September. That would be highest level in the past 2.5 years, but still well below the 2015 peak.   One reason for that is that well productivity hasn’t increased so much in the past 4 years, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. This despite that laterals have gotten longer (by about 1/3rd), and more frac sand is typically used nowadays (it more than doubled). You’ll be able to normalize for these factors in our online Analytics service.   The basin is aging rather rapidly, and in September almost 80% of these horizontal wells were producing below 50 bo/d, as can be seen in the bottom plot of the ‘Well status’ overview. However, that number does include about 3,000 gas wells as well (filtering these is a subscription-only feature).   The 2 leading operators, EOG & ConocoPhillips, either set new production records in September, or were close (‘Top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. I’ve preselected the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford formations. As you can see, wells from the 2010-2012 time frame are now on average below 20 bo/d, after having recovered 120-150 thousand barrels of oil (and 0.7-1 Bcf of natural gas). Wells that started in 2017 peaked at a rate of 664 bo/d, and declined to a level of 174 bo/d in the next 8 months, having recovered just over 100 thousand barrels of oil. More recent and granular data can be found if you select to group the wells by quarter or month of first production (using the ‘Show wells by’ selection).   The WSJ just published an interesting article in which they compared actual verses operator reported well performance. Many of our subscribers and readers have told us that they value our services due to the independent and accurate reporting of production data. In February we will be at the NAPE summit in Houston, so please stop by our booth if you are joining this event as well.   Early next week we will have a post on the Permian again, on which we also have a more detailed update in our upcoming enelyst chat on Tuesday.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2s048ED   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 101,165 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through December 2018. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.4 Gbo and 112 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Utah, where the Uinta Basin is located, is for the first time included in this update. December production from these ~100 thousand horizontal wells was above 6.5 million bo/d, a y-o-y growth of 1.3 million bo/d (after revisions). This was a similar growth rate as a year earlier. Natural gas production increased to ~60 Bcf/d, growing by about 10 Bcf/d during the year, which also matched the growth in the previous year. The production profiles for these wells can be seen in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where the oil basins are preselected. The average peak production rate grew by 12% in 2018 (635 bo/d vs 565 bo/d). If you group the wells by the quarter in which they began production (using the “Show wells by” selection), you will find that this increase in peak production rate continued throughout 2018. The final tab lists the top operators in these basins. EOG was far in the lead in December, followed by ConocoPhillips, Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho, which are basically sharing the 2nd spot. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The ~1,400 horizontal wells that started producing in the first quarter of 2012, peaked at a rate close to 300 bo/d, have now declined to 20 bo/d, and recovered 150 thousand barrels of oil in the process. The ~1,400 wells that began production 4 years later (Q1 2016), peaked at a rate roughly 50% higher, and are also on track to recover about 50% more oil, before they have fallen to 20 bo/d. A major question now is whether this relationship between initial production, and ultimate recovery will hold up with ever more “child” wells being drilled. Unlike their “parent” wells, they do have nearby producing wells. We will explore this question in more detail in the coming months. If you have questions that cannot be answered by the interactive presentations here, schedule a free demo with us here, or request a 10-day trial. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release February production data by the end of this week.   Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US – update through March 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through March, from 88,617 horizontal wells in 10 US states. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 8.6 Gbo and 94.2 Tcf. The latest data for Ohio, which just released Q1 production figures, is also included. Only data for West Virginia is not up-to-date, and therefore this state has been deselected in most views.   With the surge in drilling and completion activity since early 2017 both oil and gas production from these horizontal wells reached new records in recent months, at over 5 million bo/d and 50 Bcf/d. Current production is heavily dependent on recent completions, as the decline rates are high; for example, oil production from wells that started producing before 2015 is contributing just 23% of current production, as shown by the top of the dark green area in the above graph. Between the basins there are major differences, with some setting records each month (Permian, Appalachia, Niobrara), while others have not fully recovered yet (Eagle Ford, Haynesville), and a few appear to be in terminal decline (Barnett, Granite Wash). The major underlying reason for these differences is changing well productivity, which can be analyzed in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Note that the oily basins have been preselected in the ‘Basin’ filter, which you can manually adjust.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here the oil basins are preselected, and wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The major increase in initial well performance  in the past 2 years is clearly visible here. Later this week I will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released May production. Next week we will be present at the URTeC  in Houston, so if you like to know more about our upcoming analytics services, come visit our booth. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/16/us-update-through-march-2018/   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through June 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data through June from all 16,770 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Even though data for the last few months is still somewhat incomplete, it is already clear that the Permian set another production record in June, producing well above 2.4 million bo/d from these horizontal wells. The ~2,000 wells that started so far this year already contributed more over 1 million bo/d in June, as reflected in the height of the dark blue area. The most prolific formations are the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring, together good for ~80% of total production (set ‘Show production by’ to ‘Formation’ to see this).   Although output is still rising, with more than 10 wells starting to flow every day, well productivity is no longer increasing as it did between 2013 and 2016, as you’ll notice in the ‘Well quality’ tab.   The 3 largest producers here, Pioneer Natural Resources, Concho Resources, and EOG, all increased production at a similar speed since early 2017 (see ‘Top operators’).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The thickness of these curves is an indication of how many wells are included. E.g., the thick curves since Q4 2017 reflect the more than 1,000 wells that started in each of the recent quarters. Although the number of new producers is high, also this plot shows that since Q2 2016 well performance hasn’t significantly changed anymore. In fact, if you normalize production by the lengths of these laterals (which is possible in our ShaleProfile Analytics service), you’ll find that productivity improvements have stagnated since then. Given that proppant loadings are also up (~16 million pounds per completion in Q1 2018, vs ~11 million pounds in Q2 2016), operators are getting less bang for their buck (or more accurately, less oil for their ‘bang’). This may explain why proppant loadings have on average not further increased since Q4 2017 in the Permian. Pioneer Natural Resources, which completed many wells since the end of last year with more than 20 million pounds of proppant, seems to also have scaled down its completions in recent months, based on preliminary data.   Later this week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all 10 covered states in the US early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2zIbdyk     Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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