Gary LeBlanc

OilProspector should start his own thread instead of hijacking this one. He may want to share his successful strategy with others, but I remember reading the title of this thread and out of respect to the poster, please lets keep the discussion in line with Gary LeBlanc's topic.

All other discussions should not be encouraged.

Hi Gary, 

Thinking about PCPR for the March contract as I watch Asia session tonight - does spot have to cross some threshold (e.g. $54) to reduce the imbalance enough for MM's to benefit? I suspect $50.63 isn't enough. 

-M 

Edited February 12, 2020 by marie elena

The market makers have collected a $Billion more in put premiums than they've collected in call premiums. The more the market makers can push the price up the value of the those puts decline in price. You can see them doing this in the puts in the low 40 strike prices as those puts become almost worthless the Open Interest is declining by huge chunks. 

16 hours ago, Dexter Gregoire said:

OilProspector should start his own thread instead of hijacking this one. He may want to share his successful strategy with others, but I remember reading the title of this thread and out of respect to the poster, please lets keep the discussion in line with Gary LeBlanc's topic.

All other discussions should not be encouraged.

Dexter...

1. I started posting my results as Gary has the impression that retail traders cannot make any money on a daily basis ~ granted, most do fail. I was one that went the normal route of first being a losing trader, then to a breakeven trader and now a successful intraday/swing trader in the futures market.

2. I'm sure Gary can block my comments if he so chooses (or ask me to refrain which would not be a problem) ~ and for that matter Dexter you can block me if possible. 

My point to Gary is/was there is "more than one way to skin a cat". I like Gary's methodology (being a former Options trader) although the large negative swings in his methodology can create nail-biting emotional swings that my risk-set abhors.

Happy Trading!

I'm all for competive investing. It's the only way for true results to be evident. We should make another thread that pertains to oil trading in a competive manner. Lets keep this thread strictly for shorting options against WTI futures. Easier to stay on topic. All trades have to be transparent to the point that other traders can mimic your trading. No " Bought WTI yesterday at 50.55." There will have to be a guideline to the number of contracts traded and such. Only WTI and WTI options. I've traded "retail" OilProspector for 4 decades. I'll never go back.  

Bought to close 2 March naked options contracts at 2.5 from 2.67. Total profit was around $320.

I thought you had a much better Sell to Open price on those. Still short my 2 March 54p from $2.67. Good day so far. 

With the huge build in Crude Oil Inventories (7.459M) I will be impressed if the MM can jack the price of CL higher but on the other hand I know in the short term that can happen.

Feb 12 2020

 If today was options expiration day this is how I would unwind my March options strategy. First I would Buy to Close my 2 March 54 puts ( currently $2.75 ) at a loss from 2.67 for a $160 loss. Next I would sell the 2 March contracts ( currently at $51.34 ) from $52.67 for a loss  $2,600. Combined loss from the options portion of the March options strategy would be $2,760. However, earlier in the month I closed the 8 short March contracts at $55.75 from 58.05 for a  of $18,400. March's trading activity produced $18,400 - 2,760 = $15,640. That's if expiration was today. The options expire on Friday's close.The contracts themselves expire on the 20th.

  Next I would buy the July contract since Contract Price - 54 put is less than $50.00. The July WTI contract is $52.00 and the price of the July 54 put is $4.76 giving me a Net Purchase Price of $47.24. Awesome.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

"Oil stored at sea. Vitol, Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) and Litasco SA are making moves to hire oil tankers in order to store oil at sea, amid a brewing global glut of supply. The flip of the futures curve into a contango situation provides financial incentives to store oil and sell at a later date. "

 

Feb 12 2020 

  Expecting WTI ( March ) to hit $52.83 as a minimum by 4 pm EST on Thursday. It's currently 51.69. Long 2 March contracts at $52.67. Short 2 March 54 puts at $2.67. Those closed at $2.85 today. Both positions go profitable tomorrow.

Is RB going to break the 1.6000 handle?

Yep. Seems to be a supply issue and not a demand situation or WTI would be rallying in step.

 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gary LeBlanc

12 minutes ago, OilProspector said:

Is RB going to break the 1.6000 handle?

 

It did!

Feb 13 2020

March Options Strategy Evaluation :

 Current price on the March contract is $51.55. My purchase price is $52.67 for a loss on the 2 contracts is $2,240. The March 54 put is 2.62 on ask and my Sell to Open price was 2.67 so I've managed $100 profit on this portion of the trade. The option expires tomorrow. Anticipating a rally to above $53 by close tomorrow. Made $18,400 being short 8 March contracts. Maybe next time I won't go long in the month that I short. Just go out a month further. So in this case I would have 2 each Apr May June and July contracts all with 54 puts shorted against them. WTI needs time to base after a 20% correction. 

  

  

Will you let the March options contracts expire ? I thought that you would do that to collect the premium. You stated in an earlier post that you would close them before expiration date. See below. Can you please clarify ?

 

"If today was options expiration day this is how I would unwind my March options strategy. First I would Buy to Close my 2 March 54 puts ( currently $2.75 ) at a loss from 2.67 for a $160 loss. Next I would sell the 2 March contracts ( currently at $51.34 ) from $52.67 for a loss  $2,600. Combined loss from the options portion of the March options strategy would be $2,760."

I am obligated to hold my contract until I Buy to Close the March 54 puts I have shorted against the futures. After that I can sell the futures. Makes no sense to hold out for a high price for the March contract since I will be buying July contracts and shorting 54 puts immediately against them. Time is money for me. I will be unwinding the March strategy and initiating the July strategy tomorrow. 

Hi Gary. Thanks. Interesting thread. For CLH20 monthly options. FWIW, according to my calcs today, it looks like the minimum total MM payout (approx $164M) at expiry tomorrow is achieved at an underlying price of 54.5. Seems improbable today. I'm short 4 x 54 Puts, so any increase is welcome! Anyway, we'll see!

Edited February 13, 2020 by rog1111

I placed orders to sell to open 54 puts, 2 of April and 2 July over night, they executed and closed them earlier in the day today for a gain of $1020.

I also bought and sold future contracts of RBOB an CL for a gain of $1568.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Mario Andretti

You've been busy. Have order to sell 2,000 shares of UWT at $8.60. Saw it there pre-market but hasn't executed. Will be Buying to Close my 2 March 54 puts today. Will sell the March contracts once I do and buy 2 July contracts and immediately Sell to Open 2 July 54 puts against them since currently July Futures Price - July 54p Price = less than $50.00.

Feb 14 2020

  Order to sell 2,000 shares of UWT executed at $8.60 around 9:35 a.m. EST when WTI was 52.22. Placed order to buy 2,200 shares at $7.75 and placed another order to sell 2,000 more shares of UWT at 9.46. WTI currently $52.02

Placed order to Buy to Close 2 March 54 puts at $1.65. WTI will have to get to 52.50ish for it to execute. The March 54 puts were Sold to Open at $2.67 so this would be $2,000 in profit. WTI currently 52.05.

Great. Hope it works out for you. 

Last post on my trading... Done for the week... +3.8k today. For the week +15.6k ~ Sincerely hope your trading was fruitful... Gotta love the (sine)waves. Have a nice weekend!

 

Congratulations. All with futures contracts ? No options ?