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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/15/2019 in Posts

  1. 10 points
    Anybody else seeing the shale oil ‘house of cards’ collapsing as we speak? Many of us saw this coming, but were continually shouted down by the shale oil cheerleaders. With rig count plummeting and lack of financing, the DUC’s being completed (finally) is the only reason production is still up. Once the DUC backlog is completed it is going to be a whole new ballgame!
  2. 9 points
    Way back when I was at University where I was a math major, my class used a classroom shared with some 500+ level economics group. We shared that room because even by the 250 level subject I was in at the time there were few students but we needed a Lot of chalkboard, and so did the Masters level economics students. One day we went to the classroom to see the prior occupants had filled every chalkboard with lots of maths attempting to prove something about supply and demand. The details are too far in the past for me to remember specifics. Our professor was getting ready to erase the boards when he said, "Hold on, let's see what they were doing here". We then proceeded to examine their logic and find the progression right up to the point where their prof clearly just gave up. The math at our level was relatively trivial and we saw several mistakes and wrong turns in the process. Our teacher said, "I'm no economist, but it seems like he was trying to get 'here' but didn't know how to", while pointing at a graph that wasn't really supported by the equations. Naturally he "solved" the problem with a little note in a corner of a chalkboard, saying something like, "cheers from the advanced calculus and numerical analysis class 251" or whatever we were called then. I found the whole exercise far more stimulating than our class that followed, because for a change I got to see math applied and not just math for maths sake. Next semester I found that prof and asked if there was a class I could take from him. He recommended a 499 level class and I was quite surprised to find I was the only one in it. I later learned he was just using me as an unpaid graduate assistant, which wasn't too bad since I was still a Freshman. I was in 200 level classes from all the Advanced Placement courses I'd taken in high school. He gave me all these special assignments, which mostly involved me doing the math be wasn't comfortable with and writing computer code to tie everything together. Again and again he brought me things to "prove" a contention he'd already decided on, rather than following the data where it led. Nowadays I'd call that "climate science", but I digress. He told me he could guarantee me a PhD in economics in record time if I'd just change my major. By then I'd lost interest because I could tell his fundamental viewpoint and that of the rest of economics was fundamentally flawed. They were looking at everything wrong. Money = Debt and nothing else. "Money" is created into existence only when a bank loans it out, their ability to "create" the money only limited by their "assets". Initial assets are created by the Central Bank when it "purchases" debt from the sovereign government and "creates" notes. This video gives a concise picture of how it works. There are others but this one is simplest. Given that what everyone calls money (but which I call currency to keep things straight) is really just debt piled on debt, the next question is, "How does this apply to our reality?" If you start to visualize "the moneylenders" as this cabal of unscrupulous folk bound and determined to separate everyone from their hard earned possessions and commodities, you won't be far off the mark. Blaming it on "Jews" is simplistic and wrong but there are certainly some who claim to be from that tribe involved. If you just think about very smart people with little morality that's closer. If you believe the folks who are the public face of the Fed are actually in charge you've missed the boat. Elsewhere I posted The credit theory of money and I mistakenly attributed the publish date in 1914, when it was really May 1913. This date is important because the Federal Reserve was created 7 months later by some sketchy means while most of Congress was on Christmas vacation. I won't get into that here but can document it if you're interested. Why economics gets everything wrong is because, in my opinion, they aren't good at math and oversimplified the equations. For simplicity we say Supply and Demand and that's part of it, but the chasing of tails occurs with "elasticity" and other fixes to try and explain away what prices did contrary to the theory. It's better to think of everything as a lossy transmission line (current=currency) and the losses are due to interest (it's all debt remember) and inefficiency. The "work" getting done, i.e. economic activity corresponds to the usual machines consuming "watts" at the end of those power lines. Electrical engineers easily stay on top of all the inputs and outputs in their utility systems including real time trading with other utilities to soak up or provide additional power as needed. Not a perfect mental model but closer to reality than what economists currently spout. Finally, I've mentioned Ray Dalio here before, and I strongly recommend giving him a listen or read. Also simple but clearly done. Cheers @Marcin, @Papillon, @Tom Kirkman, @DayTrader. Hopefully we can have an intelligent discussion here about these things and I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
  3. 9 points
    A very nice argument Papillon, but you make some false assumptions. 1. I think that America is somewhat flawless and has great policies. In fact I dislike the attempts by big government elements to restrict many of the rights of Americans. The rights to bear arms protect all the other rights in our constitution. This right is, in fact, being widely infringed upon. The right to life is restricted by abortion.. The right to privacy is not specified discretely in our constitution but the lack of privacy is something that must be inferred and dealt with fairly. Our government (and many govt. levels} is too large and the rules are overwhelming. Our legal system does not treat the wealthy and famous as harshly as the ordinary person. Our judicial system is being abused by rogue judges who make unconstitutional rulings which take a long time to fully be resolved. This also takes a lot of money. The ordinary citizen must turn to private organizations to get free legal help for justice. 2. It is a false statement to say that Americans are only slightly freer than Chinese. I wonder what percentage of Americans would want to live in China and vice versa. Feel free to speculate. 3. What nation provides more leadership to the world, or has to this point of recent history? I am not predicting the future, just stating facts. I am also not speaking of all history. 4. You compare privacy in America to that in China as if it were close. I really don't think it is close, but admit it is getting closer. Our government is just as interested in knowing everything we are doing as the Chinese government. The difference is that our domestic surveillance system doesn't compare. China has 91 million card carrying members of their Communist Party. They are all spies or willing to be spies at a moments notice. More importantly our government is restrained by our American Constitution and Bill of Rights which are carefully guarded by all wise citizens and honest judges. 5. I think that every person has a right to be proud of whatever nation they are a citizen of or any other nation they choose to be proud of. That does not mean that some do not have more to boas about however. I admire many things about China and its history. Its government is not one of them primarily because it is not democratic and has an Emperor for Life. 6. Regarding Hong Kong. I think that it is sad that its residents are placed in a position where they feel the need to revolt against the overwhelming power of China which lies on its doorstep and is a legal claimant of its land. I feel very sad for them. They are brave people as I think most Chinese are. I see no good end for the people of Hong Kong. I think that China will develop Schenzen and move any crucial systems there as it pacifies Hong Kong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen America would be foolish to interfere directly in Hong Kong. All we can do is support them indirectly, ideologically, and with our prayers. 7. About who rules the world. What that means is globalism versus free nations and free people. You cannot have national freedoms with an overarching global government. China wants a global government that will accedes to all its desires and values. Many in the Western World want the same thing. I am diametrically opposed to that. President Trump is also. Emperor Xi is a big fan of the United Nations and Globalism as long as it suits his needs. My Globalism Topic https://docs.google.com/document/d/1k8kNhtZJLuN66TpDuo67WBV1U2JhhZIvAefxeMNK0ls/edit 8. You compare problems that America has with homelessness, drugs, crime etc. with problems in China. China tries to hide its internal problems. America is happy to let everyone know what is bad so that it may become better. China would also be better off it allowed free discourse. Yet we too have a mass media that wants to hide the evils of our own government but fortunately we can still work around it if we try hard enough. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3040048/support-hong-kong-protests-china-has-consequences-some Papillon, I thank you for the effort you put into your response. It sounds to me that we are not too far away from each other in our beliefs and might gain from further debate.
  4. 9 points
  5. 8 points
    Good read. As I have been saying for months now, Trump has *already won* the trade war against China. This article explains quite well what is going on: President Trump China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts ... President Trump is famously impatient in achieving a financial objective. He is known to have well thought plans, but he is also known to not pause long when executing his plan. This economic impatience may seem to be at odds with the majority of the financial media who say President Trump is playing a long-game with Chairman Xi Jinping. ERGO the dichotomy is explained thus: If President Trump is famously impatient, then why is he being so deliberate and painfully slow in achieving a deal with Chairman Xi?… Here’s the ‘ah-ha’ moment. ….The current status with China was the final objective. President Trump looks like he’s being stunningly patient because President Trump achieved his goal when no-one was paying attention. We are already past the success point. The goal is essentially achieved. There is no actual intent to reach a trade deal with China where the U.S. drops the tariffs and returns to holding hands with a happy panda playing by new rules. This fictional narrative is a figment of fantasy being sold by a financial media that cannot fathom a U.S. President would be so bold as to just walk away from China. That ‘walk away’ is exactly what President Trump did when he left all of those meetings in Southeast Asia in 2017; and every moment since has been setting up, and firming up, an entirely new global supply chain without China. President Trump is not currently engaged in a substantive trade agreement in the formal way people are thinking about it. Instead “Phase-One” is simply President Trump negotiating the terms of a big Agricultural purchase commitment from Beijing, and also protecting some very specific U.S. business interests (think Apple Co.) in the process. The actual goal of President Trump’s U.S-China trade reset is a complete decoupling of U.S. critical manufacturing within China. President Trump does not express angst, frustration, or even disappointment over the U.S-China trade discussions because the decoupling is well underway. ...
  6. 8 points
    Within the nexus of this "national competition" one casualty has been the US (and Canada) production of canola, which the Chinese now refuse to buy in an effort to place hurt on the US agriculture sector and achieve, by inflicting trade pain, what they cannot achieve at the bargaining table. The boycott and import-refusal of China as relates to US canola has left vast swathes of canola plant in the field with no market, and with those farmers facing financial ruin. One response has been for Trump to declare financial aid, presumably in the form of price-support or production payments. Yet, canola is an interesting plant, and the question arises, are there other uses for it? Let's take a look. Canola is known in the rest of the world as "rapeseed." The plant grows readily, has a stalk by-product, and the pod end contains the canola seed, which is the part that is trans-shipped by bulk freighter to the customer, who then presses the seed to extract the oil. Canola oil is superb for use as a cooking oil and basically all of the output is used for that purpose. The left-over seed material is known in that industry as "meal" and is rich in protein, and typically used for direct feed to livestock. It is a premium feed for that purpose, so the by-product has quite a bit of added value. Keep in mind that some 20 years ago there was no organized market in the USA for canola, and the product was not grown, at least not in anny quantity. The entire market, and its production in the US, is responsive to Chinese demand. Canola is thus a classic "substitute good" for US Midwest farmers, where land typically used for corn or wheat is re-planted with canola, more profitable for the sale to the Chinese. In a sense, the entire market is an artificial one, as there were no natural customers for US canola. World supply came typically from Australia and parts of Europe, especially Eastern Europe, I think Ukraine. But, Chinese demand for better diets and thus more cooking oils exploded the demand for canola, and the US growers eagerly responded. Faced with mountains of unsold, and unsalable, canola seed in the US, the question arises: what can we do with the stuff? And a tantalizing prospect arises. I assume that the pressing operation to manufacture the canola oil is a mundane industrial process and can be readily duplicated. I would doubt that seed-pressing is an occult art, it is likely quite mature technology at this point world-wide. OK, so now we set up seed-pressing inside the USA and we develop this vast lake of canola oil (the meal part being sold to livestock ranches and pig farms, for a nice profit of course). It turns out that canola oil is a great feedstock for the production of diesel fuel, or "bio-diesel." Already there are these installations that take used cooking oil and refine the stuff to create diesel, then used to run local buses.Well, if used oil works, why not fresh oil? The stumbling block to using bio-diesel is that the manufacture of the diesel results in the production of glycerin, a thick fat material that will clog up fuel lines, especially if the temperature drops and the glycerin congeals. So, efforts are directed towards the removal of the glycerin, and to no surprise as some 10% to 20% by weight of the canola oil will result in glycerin in conventional extraction methods, the resale price of glycerin has collapsed, and the material is today treated as a waste product. Can glycerin have a useful "home," become a product with its own value? That is an interesting question: I suspect it can, possibly as a fuel enhancer for stationary power plants or home-heating fireplaces. I postulate that wood log splits can be soaked in the stuff, and it would burn nicely. Possibly wood pellets can be soaked in liquid glycerin and again this would boost the btu output of pellets in direct burning. The glycerin results from converting that canola oil with methyl alcohol, or "methanol," of which there is lots and lots in America available on the cheap, itself manufactured in special methanol plants from corn. The methanol reactions result in the formation of glycerin, and there is currently no industrial pathway for canola conversion without methanol. Yet, interesting research is being don on distilling bio-diesel from canola without the production of glycerin. One approach is the use of dimethyl carbonate as a catalyst, and that protocol apparently dramatically reduces the amount of glycerin as a by-product. Another takes it a step further and adds a preparation consisting of active sodium methoxide catalyst prepared by crystallization, in the form of a finely-ground powder, which has the tantalizing result of producing virtually no glycerin at all. Can either of these reaction pathways be developed into robust industrial processes to fully convert canola oil directly into diesel (or jetfuel)? I bet they can. I bet they will. And once that happens, whoever is in there "first" with gobs of capital to set it up on a seriously large scale will clean up. Why? Because a pure, clean bio-diesel is unbeatable as an engine fuel, and as a heating fuel. There are technical reasons for this which I shall avoid discussing for brevity, but I see this as a real winner. And best of all, it gets the US farmer out from underneath in a great big hurry, and provides far more income than selling the seeds in bulk to the Chinese. Does the USA need China as a customer - for anything? And the answer is No. The USA is quite capable of finding other markets, or planting other crops, or creating new markets and products from its existing stable, and totally excluding the Chinese. What it will impact is the US oil markets, in that it will provide a farm product as direct substitution for a middle distillate. Yet, and again speculating, if the product substitution is directly against imported oil, it does not whack the US shale producers so much as depress US imports of ME or African oils. Either way, I predict that a successful development of the redeployment of canola oil into biodiesel is going to make some entrepreneurs vastly rich, and take market share away from producers and distillers in the US Midwest and Gulf Coast. And that would be an interesting re-alignment.
  7. 8 points
    Roughly 23,000 years ago in modern-day Israel, a small tribe of ex-cave dwellers built a tiny village near the Sea of Galilee that may have been one of the earliest agrarian societies in human history. Archaeologists discovered the site more than thirty years ago. And they found tens of thousands of well-preserved seeds and agricultural tools, suggesting that the people who lived there planted a great deal of food in the fertile lands nearby. As historian Will Durant once wrote, “the first culture is agriculture.” And he was right. Civilization as we know it has its foundations in agriculture. When human beings came out of caves, stopped roaming the wild, and began planting seeds to feed their families and tribes, they were able to produce more food than they consumed for the first time in the history of our species. And because it only took a handful of people to feed an entire village, everyone else was able pursue other vocations like architecture, science, mathematics, medicine, etc. Freed from the daily toil of survival, our ancestors invented trade, commerce, writing, and everything else that fueled progress over the next 10,000 years. And this simple concept of producing more than you consume has been the foundation of human prosperity for millennia. It’s also one of the basic principles of capitalism. People who produce and save are supposed to be rewarded. People who irresponsibly go in to debt to consume are supposed to be punished. But not anymore ... Back in 2014, the European Central Bank made history when they pushed interest rates into negative territory. Literally never before in the history of the world had interest rates been negative. And little by little, those negative rates have been spreading. A recent report published by the Financial Times showed that 60% of German banks are now passing on that negative interest to their customers. In other words, if you save money, you have to pay the bank interest. And many banks are now starting to pay customers to borrow money. This is totally upside down. Saving is penalized, and debt is rewarded. But the breakdown in the system doesn’t stop there. I’ve written extensively about how some of the most popular investments in the world are companies that lose enormous amounts of money and have no plan to consistently turn a profit… ever. Uber, for example, lost a whopping $5.2 billion just in the second quarter of this year. WeWork has been a never-ending saga of burning through billions of dollars of investors’ capital. Lyft loses money. Snapchat loses money. Slack loses money. Even Tesla and Netflix both continue to post multi-billion dollar cash flow losses. Yet according to a recent Bloomberg survey, these are some of the most popular investments in the world. It’s almost as if the more money these companies lose, the more desirable they are to Wall Street. Again– totally upside down. A business is supposed to make money for its shareholders, or at least present a credible plan to eventually do so. Curiously, though, there are now at least 181 CEOs of some of the largest companies in the United States– from Apple to JP Morgan– who say that driving shareholder value should no longer be the priority of business. They have re-imagined the “purpose of a corporation” as “not the sole pursuit of profits, but the animating force for achieving them,” whatever the hell that means. Even the Financial Times– formerly one of Britain’s only sane newspapers– has launched a new project with a tagline, “Capitalism: Time for a Reset”. You can’t simply go into business to provide value to customers, employees, and shareholders anymore. Now there has to be some woke purpose that involves diversity, the environment, and whatever else happens to be on the Bolshevik progressive agenda. Shareholders are not even allowed to decide who should/should not run their own companies anymore. Multiple countries (Belgium, India, Germany, Norway, Spain, France) and US states (California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey) have already passed some sort of legislation mandating diversity requirements on company boards. So company director positions must now go to people based on the government’s pre-determined racial and gender criteria, and not to the people who shareholders think will do the best job (the criteria themselves are also absurd– women, African Americans, and Latinos are included, but Native Americans, trans people, and anyone who identifies as a seedless watermelon are excluded.) This is all a total breakdown in the system. And on top of everything else, of course, we have dozens of Bolshevik US Presidential candidates who are foaming at the mouth with hatred for capitalism and wealthy citizens. The Bolsheviks want to confiscate wealth, nationalize entire industries, and engage in countless other social/economic programs that are ripped from the pages of the Communist Manifesto. They despise billionaires in particular– 607 Americans who have generated trillions of dollars of economic activity, created millions of jobs, and donated hundreds of billions of dollars to charity. Bill Gates uses his wealth to eradicate disease and save lives around the world. Yet Elizabeth Warren thinks that the US government– the same institution that spent $2 billion to build a website– can deploy his capital more effectively. These are the new rules of upside-down capitalism: Debt is wealth Loss is the new profit ‘Wokeness’ above all else Rich people are evil Socialism makes sense It’s amazing how quickly this new reality took over… and I shudder to think how much more absurd it will become over the next few years. Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com
  8. 8 points
    This is a crux of the matter for me sir and lends itself well to explanations of your continuing references to China. What you actually tend to dislike it seems is your 'leadership of the world being eclipsed by China' and that you feel this need to try and stop their 'current course'. Who, I ask, told you that the United States 'leads the world', or indeed what this even means, is very disconcerting, as is the title of the piece claiming or seeming to wish 'death by paper cuts'. This is not a pleasant image or metaphor to myself and I assume is not meant in the manner it came across to me. You mention 'free nations' but I am of the opinion that you should more accurately state 'slightly freer nations than China'. Is it not so, for instance, that all of your major companies, including Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon, to name merely a few, have all been under vast scrutiny concerning security of users and citizens? This is a 'free nation', a nation seemingly enslaved by its own banking system? A laughable notion sir if I may say so. I am hesitant to inform and argue that you live in as much of a surveillance state as the Chinese I dare say, the only difference to myself is how you have chosen to label and justify it. Your government is also, from what I have observed atleast, at constant war with itself and involved in one scandal after another, including your own president. If these are the ideals that other countries and indeed the world should be following and 'led' by to use your words then this is deeply worrying sir. How your nation has any right to comment on others' ideals is little more than sheer, misplaced arrogance and utter illusion. As previously noted, I am not the number one fan of some Chinese practices by any stretch of the imagination. However I have atleast tried to separate fact from fiction over my many years, especially with regard to national pride and geopolitical events, which seems to sway your no doubt good intent sir. I would argue that the vast majority of our planet holds a pride in their nationality and indeed even place of birth, it is quite a natural element to myself for us to do so. That said, your rightful love of the United States seems to sway your opinions slightly unjustly if I may be so bold, and they read as if through tainted spectacles of illusion and bias. For instance, as you seem a trifle obsessed with the Chinese way of life being different to your own, you have made reference to your president with regard to Hong Kong, admittedly on a different conversation here. This seems to you a moment of pride, that citizens of Hong Kong asked for intervention from the United States, 'the leaders of the world' in your eyes. May I ask what exactly your great president did when asked for this help? It seems to me that your famous 'land of the free' did precisely nothing whatsoever to aid the situation which has continued for many months since, and indeed is continuing right now? Indeed the only reason this bill was signed by him at all was due to the pressure from others? Again, to yourself, this is a 'free nation', where even your leader has little say in certain areas and acts based on others' votes with little choice? Returning to my initial musings, that being your country's 'war for who will rule the world' to quote your good self, may I be so bold as to suggest why, when asked for this aid, you did nothing? The answer is quite plain. Fear. I would argue that the president has an election next year to ponder among many things, including of course trade disputes, and has little intention of conflict anywhere before this occurs, if at all. That said it is certainly not unnoticed, even by yourself surely, that if the situation in Hong Kong were somewhere else, let us say somewhere without such a powerful army that you fear next door, but instead somewhere with vast oil reserves and a weak military, that your country would have been there within days no doubt? It seems your great, 'free' nation insists on these ideals depending on who rulers are at the time in these locations, or how rich they are in certain commodities, or how powerful the opponents' armies are likely to be? Again, these are the 'ideals' that belong to who 'rules the world' in your eyes? A very troubling thought for the future. It is a credit to your current president atleast and his pre-election agenda that unnecessary conflicts have been avoided. With any of your other leaders over the last thirty years it maybe would have been a different outcome no doubt? Make no mistake please sir, I have no more against the United States as I do against China. This is not a silly competition and I have no time for trivial matters. I respect both countries, as many others, equally and I am an admirer of the vast majority and spectrum of cultures. What I seem to read here however, rather frequently from several users, not just your good self, is false reasoning of some causes and effects of global events, where in some cases all logic seems to be replaced for a foolish national pride that I tend to view as misplaced, as we are all citizens of the same planet, regardless of our own national leader. As stated above this is not to say all national pride is foolish, far from it, it is natural to me, but in some cases it overrides the more pressing matters, causes an instant bias and goes on to accomplish very little. Finally I would note that over many centuries the 'leaders of the world', if I understand your meaning of this correctly, have changed hands many, many times. I am sure all of them also believed their reign would last for centuries to come? I would hazard a guess if I may that none of these eras or their finality cause a reaction in you at all? When it comes to your own nation and shall we say 'era' however, which you see as 'ruling the world', it causes a fear and varying emotions, seemingly justified to you as you see your nation as vastly more free than China, and hide beneath this guise of apparent freedom of the planet and its future 'under' American rule. A quick check of your own politics, banking system, leading companies and their trust issues, false news outlets, gun deaths, drug abuse, levels of homelessness and mindless wars to name but a few, will hopefully remind you that you do not live in some ideal wonderland sir, however much you may wish it or believe it. With respect, Papillon.
  9. 8 points
    This is probably true currently, not sure the figures you state are accurate but I get your point. However in the long term this is going to be a serious problem for China as other S.E Asian countries are already picking up this business and will become major competition for Chinese businesses on market share. It will give not only the US another possibly better option to purchase but also all other countries as these countries will become more efficient and invest in their manufacturing capabilities, up-skill their workforce etc. It also makes the GDP of these countries stronger and they then become less beholden to the will of China politically. It is natural that "fair trading" with these countries will lead to stronger ties to the US and the West. Countries such as Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, and the Indian subcontinent will all benefit. There is also the ongoing subsidies that the Chinese state will need to be offering many manufacturing plants in order to keep them afloat. All of this to the detriment of China. I am by no means saying China will collapse or anything like that but it will be a serious set back for their grand plan for hegemony. I think Trump has played this out very well (not his biggest fan on many things, but he is a good businessman). There are many upsides for the US at present and I see none for China. I think your average blue collar John Doe living in the US should be shaking Trump's hand right now. Just my opinion, feel free to disagree.
  10. 8 points
    P.S. getting used to the cold weather again here in the U.S. Been a couple decades. Wearing bright colors because it is deer hunting season, and I want hunters to be able to see me when I'm walking around. My family shot 4 deer on opening day of deer season. Going to be eating venison all winter. I've been labelled locally as "borderline hyperactive" which sounds about right, except for the 'borderline' part. Fun to be adventuring again, and totally enjoying the freedom to freely speak my mind again without the very real threat of being arrested or worse - just for saying words.
  11. 8 points
    Bad day was it LOL? Yes, I agree 100% with everything Trump has ever said or done. You got me. Give it a rest ffs. It's about European interest rates. Your response involves Trump. What a surprise. Jeez. Grow up. I could say #AntiTrumpLogic by definition. WHATEVER the topic is about, you bring up Trump. You're obsessed. He won, get over it, you've had 3 years, and don't even live there LOL. And newsflash, capitalism is not just about the USA, believe it or not, hence all the article's references to Europe and the EUROPEAN Central Bank. Do try and keep up, would be a bonus. Germany is in Europe just so you know. Cheers. #DT2020 #TDS
  12. 8 points
    Tom, I qualified my opinion with the word "random." Let us postulate that the children of these four politicians all randomly go to different colleges, never meet each other (or each others' mentors), and yet all four end up is some European backwater in the politically unstable Ukraine, and all four are working for natural gas companies, and all four are drawing nice salaries and unknown so-called "bonuses" and other tidbits ---- nah, the chance of that being random is precisely zero. Therefore, if that is the way it ends up, it is no longer "random," and the assignments are being orchestrated by others, to inure to their unjust enrichment. Trust this explains.
  13. 7 points
  14. 7 points
    I'm generally not a fan of downvoting, unless someone is being a total jerk (you are not being a jerk). Open debate is preferable to the red arrow, in my opinion.
  15. 7 points
    I think you'll find he is orange with dodgy hair! I feel sorry for Greta, not for her beliefs as she is entitled to believe in whatever she wants, but she has had her childhood stolen by her own parents which I just find abominable.
  16. 7 points
    People do not seem to realize that the root cause of the production problems associated with shale oil is the extremely low permeability or the ability for the rock to flow. There is only so much that you can do to mitigate this issue. Let’s take a simplistic historical view. First a well is drilled vertically through a tight shale formation. This yields a certain surface area for hydrocarbons to enter the wellbore, which in turn gives a certain production rate for that surface area and permeability. The rate is uneconomical. How do we increase the permeability of the reservoir rock matrix? We can’t, so we must adjust the surface area. We now drill a lateral through the reservoir. Surface area of the wellbore increases and production goes up - for awhile. The near wellbore oil is recovered ‘easily’, but as the oil further from the wellbore is being recovered, the tortuous path between the shale grains becomes longer, friction becomes greater and it becomes more difficult for the oil to reach the wellbore. Eventually the production rate becomes uneconomical. We need even more surface area, so we hydraulically fracture the formation. Once again, more surface area yields higher production - until it doesn’t for exactly the same reasons described above. At some point the money runs out and you can neither increase the length of the laterals OR increase the number of stages in the frac program. Okay, let’s just drill and frac a multitude of wells in the same area. This will yield a huge increase in the wellbore surface area (remember, you can’t really change the permeability of the actual reservoir rock) and production should skyrocket, and it does, right up to the point that it doesn’t and the parent/sibling well issue raises it’s ugly head. At the end of the day, the shale oil boom will bust simply because you can not alter the deep reservoir permeability AND you’ve run out of money trying to do so. That’s it in a nutshell. Over to you Jabbar...
  17. 7 points
    The Permian gained 2 million bpd last year. 2018 well decline is 1 million bpd in just 7 months. The Tier 2 & 3 acerage not only produces 1/3 to 1/2 less EUR it also declines at nearly twice the rate. So that treadmill just got steeper and you just barfed your protein bar. There is no way this goes on more than another 6 months. DUC's fill/plug a few holes but it's fingers in the dike. We're going to peak around 13 mbpd probably December and then it will start the decline and it won't be slow. So it grew roughly 8 mbpd over 10 years, it will decline 8 mbpd in 5 years or 1.6 mbpd a year. So this time next year we will be at 11.5 mbpd. I think it won't get to 13 mbpd, probably 12.6 mbpd. Right now 85% of new production goes to replacing legacy decline. In the Permian. Tier 1 acerage is gone. You can tell by 2018 decline rates which look to come in at 80 - 90%. Gone in 1 year. No more new oil wells because oil price has to double or triple or maybe more to justify the expense. The Wolfcamp #'s I see above have to be Tier 1. As far as refracking, I hear that only works in the Bakken and on only the best wells. Not much there. I'm not the only one who thinks the worm has turned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhc6vyxVsDs
  18. 7 points
    I see shale oil just hitting it's stride but that's just my personal experience with 19 wells in the Wolfcamp. I don't believe it's DUCs being completed that is the reason for production increasing while rig count is dropping. As I stated on another thread, my two operators have drilled and completed 7 new wells this year. XTO has drilled 12 and completed all of them since spring of 2018. They built infrastructure to support both storage and water disposal. They have about 45,000 bbl of tank storage for oil and the same for water. They have SWD disposal pipelines that have the capacity of 12,000 bbl/day which amounts to about 4000 bbl/day of oil production. So the limitation for them isn't wells, it's infrastructure to support their drilled and producing capacity. On the old leases that XTO has inherited from XOM, they have many wells under one lease so you can't see from public data how any single well is doing. Here is a clip of XTO's production in October for their Phantom Wolfcamp field. Oil/Condensate (Whole Barrels) Gas/Casinghead Gas - MCF Lease Type District RRC Identifier Field Name Lease Name Gas Well ID Lease Total Commingle Permit No. On Hand Beginning of Month Production Disposition On Hand End of Month Formation Production Disposition Volume Code Volume Code Oil 08 48218 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) HURLEY 56-18 1,521 128,229 128,738 00 984 674,472 629,639 03 28 08 44,833 04 Gas 04 FLARE Oil 08 48520 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) HALEY-GARLAND ALLOCATION 8 479 2,860 2,214 00 1,125 4,948 1,938 03 3,010 04 Gas 04 FLARE Oil 08 48657 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST. LUCIA 76 2833 7648 1,738 145,306 144,287 00 2,066 292,404 271,120 03 691 01 21,284 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 50025 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST KITTS 76 2833 7648 156 15,446 15,309 00 220 33,722 31,267 03 73 01 2,455 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 50068 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST JOHN 76 2734 7648 5,017 307,960 307,128 00 4,378 540,496 509,871 03 1,471 01 30,625 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 51942 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) KATE 33-40 1,305 9,993 10,209 00 1,089 36,480 35,663 03 817 04 Three of the leases produce over 100,000 barrels per month. Mine is Hurley and we are on track for 1mmbbl of production this year on those 12 wells. The latest wells are all 1000bbl/day producers, I see that from the royalty checks and also I pulled the IP reports for them. These wells are all on the west half of the section. I suspect that the other two large producers are on one or two sections and managed the same way. It's likely that the smaller producers are only a single well and they plan to expand them the same way they did on mine. We had a single well from 2016 to 2018 and then they went into the big development build out. XTO is in it for the long run and their disposal contracts run 10 years they told us. I believe they intend to maintain this level of production for that 10 year span which is good for me. Keep in mind, they have mostly been drlling the Wolfcamp, some of the wells are in the Bone Springs but they don't break the production out that way for whatever technical reason. The Bone Springs wells produce more gas and less oil. My independent operator has built his own water disposal facility and so makes money on that by taking water from other producers. He gets to keep the skim oil and he makes several hundred barrels per day off skim oil. XTO gets paid for skim oil in it's agreement with it's disposal facility whch they then pay to us. There is a lot of money being made out there on services and infrastructure so this is not a fiasco, it's a real business that produces real jobs and if you ask me, it's just as viable as Amazon or Google which like them or not, are here to stay in our lifetimes. Here is the plat map for my section with all 12 wells shown. This is the plat for the 31h so it's the unlabeled line. I believe 30 and 31h are child wells of 1h and 2h and they are both better producers than the parent wells are. XTO seems to be following a pattern of producing only one of the parent/child wells at a time. I don't know how advisable it is to not produce one well while the other is producing but that is what they are doing. I think going forward this year I will be able to get a better insight into what the rotation is but for 2019 it's hard to tell because they have been drilling and completing new wells and bringing too many wells on line to fully discern their production patterns. I just know that they don't produce all the wells every month because they can't support the volumes.
  19. 7 points
    Not all fractures created equal Technical Engineering Reservoir Modeling Article. https://pubs.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-main-page/ https://pubs.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=6240 Shale going bust laughable. Shale and actually whole energy industry going thru transition. That is not to say over half of today's shale producers will not be gone in a year or two. They will. DOUBLE YIELD 10% TO 20% During Investor Day Conoco discussed how they used 5 technologies to double yield. It is primarily based on (1) CORE SAMPLING, (2) ADVANCED SIESMIC TECHNIQUES /ANALYTICS, and (3) PRESSURE CONTROL. (4) They have also stated that they solved the well stack/spacing (parent/child) deleima and are able to drill 12 to 16 wells per section. Conoco champions 5 TECHNOLOGIES to achieve greater productivity. Conoco recent Investor Day Presentation stated they are doubling yield from 10% to 20% at their pilot test wells and . . . . . . . . they said they can do even better (> 20%) ! ADDITIONALLY THEY ARE REFRACING ALL VINTAGE 1 AND Vintage 2 WELLS (2009 thru 2014) and doing so at COST BELOW $30 BARREL. TRANSITION / CONSOLIDATION All those producers that survive the Consolidation and Transition will be using these new 5 technologies This in effect is doubling reserves and cutting costs per barrel by as much as 30% to 40%. Look forward not backward. When DUCs drawn down the weak go out of business. The strong continue to drill now. At least half of the shale industry will merge consolidate or file bankruptcy. Shale industry hiring . . Mathematicians and Computer Science grads. Don't need more field engineers. Don't fight it. EMBRACE THE NEW SHALE INDUSTRY. Yesterday Conoco CEO said U.S. will probably increase production about a million barrels a day by end of 2020. U.S. Production up to 12.9 million barrels day week ending Nov 29th
  20. 7 points
    I don't think any rational human being would disagree with your sentiment. There are arguments to the vallidity of some of the "science" IMO but the willingness to want to change for the better is an admirable quality. However unless we want economies to collapse due to not having viable alternate energy sources this wont happen overnight. Fossil fuels are here to stay and for a long time based on current technologies and energy supplies. This is perhaps the reality that many environmentalists just don't grasp. If you take California as an example, and a forward thinking state from an environmentalists perspective, they are currently experiencing blackout after blackout because of the massively increased legislation the utilties have to now comply with. i drive a hybrid car, am i helping make a differnce to Co2 emissions? absolutely not! in fact over the lifespan of the car it will probably cost the environment more than an ICE vehicle due to the amount of Co2 it takes to manufacture the battery in the first place. i wonder how many environmentalists know this and thinking they are helping when in fact they are making things worse. Are we all prepared to accept blackouts as the norm and is it a price worth paying? Maybe, time will tell. As for the EU, it has potential but is crippled by political in fighting and bureaucracy. Reform it from the top down and you may just have something! Respectfully
  21. 7 points
    Super long post, much to unpack. I'll start with this. My wife of almost 40 years is Chinese. I used to be fairly fluent in Mandarin, out of practice now but still understand much more than I can speak. Unfortunately I learned phonetic style not Pinyin so can't type it properly in English. I have been friends with several hundred Chinese over the decades. I can only name two who moved back (while they could have stayed), and they went to Hong Kong. Others couldn't get green cards etc. We even had 3 Chinese over for Thanksgiving dinner. I love Chinese people, not so much the 0.1% who rule the country as if it is their personal fiefdom. You've heard of "Princelings" I'm sure. Children of senior party members, who when they show up in the news are usually dead from crashing a Lamborghini. Half million dollar car for a kid with no job whose parents "earn" $40,000 a year? Xi can "pretend" he's rooting out corruption, but it's baked into the system. All he accomplished was a change of the guard of who gets to collect the red envelopes. And there's the rub. For all our warts in the West, since we've allowed for a free press, it (used to) do a great of catching and publicizing the corrupt politicians. Not always and not everywhere, but often enough. Now we have Joe Biden, who figured out a way around the emoluments clause by using his neer do well son to collect the bribes, but because over the past 50 years the press has been taken over by DNC agents, no one was any the wiser. Until Trump made a call. Now everyone gets to act Shocked, Shocked about Trump asking for an investigation while "pretending" that there was NOTHING to investigate! Luckily there's this little thing called the Internet (invented here BTW) and everyone who wants to get informed, can. Last, and not because I don't have more to say, but because my post is getting too long, I want to clarify the difference between America being a military superpower and being an economic superpower. We happen to be both, and there are those who will say the one causes the other. The question is, which one? I for one believe the economy supports the military, not the other way around. Unfortunately there are countless fools in and around government who believe it's the other way around. Given that "it's the economy, stupid", Trump is correct that losing millions of manufacturing jobs and industries to China was going to destroy us in the long run. Hence the "trade war", which Tom is correct quoting an author who says we already won, which was never about winning "the trade war", but about reshuffling a crooked deck. China bribed Clinton and got most favored nation status, then leveraged that into building their manufacturing at the Direct expense of ours. Damage done, Trump is doing what he can to fix it. Obama said, "What are you going to do, wave a magic wand? Those jobs are never coming back". Whoops they Are coming back, which is why China is trying to interfere in This election to get Trump out of office, to be replaced by someone easier to manipulate.
  22. 7 points
    This is not just a trade war. It is a war for who will lead the world and whether or not the world is run by dictators or by free nations. If China were allowed to continue on its current course their leadership would soon eclipse ours. Western Europe already has greatly infringed on the liberties of its people and the leaders in power want to continue on that course. The people still have a chance to reverse course however, but that will be a long range struggle. Socialists have done a good job of undermining countries around the world. The people need to wake up.
  23. 7 points
    Bizarro World inversion continues unabated. TDS can be amusing. Meanwhile, lying under oath appears to be amusing to some as well.
  24. 6 points
    Thank you for the honest comment. I can respect another person's perspective. The thing about the insults, I'll presume on their behalf, is that Americans have, whether some of them wish to admit it or not, woken up to what trade imbalances mean to the U.S. They have learned that intellectual property theft is not just about CDs and music but also includes our cutting edge "nobody else is even close to" technology. Technology that keeps our high tech companies dominant, our innovation dominant and our military one step ahead of those who would do the world harm. Yes, I said the world, not just the U.S. They have woken up to the fact that prior U.S. government strategies and trade deals with our partners and emerging markets have gotten out of control and that our government has lost the interest of the citizens of the U.S. in the process. As I'm sure you are aware, since WWII a very large part of U.S. international trade and defense strategy involved allowing access to the massive U.S. markets, both goods and financial markets. That promoted international wealth creation and hence less looking around for who I can beat in a war and steal it from. Combine that with projected U.S. military strength, which ensures trade routes can be plied without fear of loss or fear of most invasions, paid for by the U.S. taxpayers, as Jan pointed out, and the world is in the best place financially and is enjoying the longest peacetime in history. Markets to absorb everybody's products and security to go about that wealth building without constant fear of invasion. Now, again whether some folks in my home country want to admit it or not, Donald J. Trump is solely responsible for bringing these imbalances and abuses to light of day. When confronting the worst abuser, China (as Donald himself said "it's not their fault; we made the deals with the Chinese; bad deals."), he found that many if not most other countries in the world wanted to side with China and keep both gravy trains running on time. So he, in my opinion, rightfully punished those that would continue to favor unbalanced trade and intellectual property theft by withdrawing from treaties that were no longer in our interest and were in fact causing harm to our citizens. He punished them by levying justifiable trade tariffs which in fact simply put us on a more level playing field with our allies, who long had imposed tax and tariff penalties for buying U.S. products, and pulling out of outdated treaties or treaties that had no chance of working as intended in the first place (think Russia/U.S. nuclear weapons treaties, Iran nuclear deals, NAFTA [which, incredibly, the Democrats are now trying to take credit for] and a well abused WTO court). Organizations such as the WTO, the U.N., NATO and others were formed, and largely funded by, the United States with U.S. leadership, and which have been turned against us for a very long time, to our detriment, to the detriment of U.S. workers and companies. Those problems and many more are our problems to solve, and we will do it alone if necessary. I lived and worked for over 9 years in China from 1989 to 1999. I was married to educated Chinese women (one owned a high rise building company and one was a medical doctor.). I was a reader of Chinese history and a lover of the Chinese people, and I still am. But(!), the Chinese are good business people and have/had a long term planning ability that is/was second to none I had experienced before. They also have a population that cannot be ignored when it comes to righting the wrongs of Mao et al in that they MUST be fed, they must have a future, they must feel self-worth. So their government set about maximizing value taken from wealthy trading partners. Nothing wrong with that, we'd all do the same I believe. All that Donald Trump has asked for is a more balanced relationship and a stop to the theft, as much as that is possible.
  25. 6 points
    BigJets is a Texas Republican and when you blather on about having Adam Schiff as "Man of the Year" it gets his hackles up. So then he hits you with the red arrow. I do not agree with that usage, but hey, he tends to express his disdain in a very direct way. Don't take it so personally (in this case). BigJets is an OK guy, just don't go getting under his skin about the flunkies in the Democratic Congress that are savaging the President (and wrongfully so, just for the record). It gets the hackles up of republican Americans whose world-view is that the Democrats are elitist limousine-liberals who scorn the working man and sneer that people who work for a living out in the field are "the deplorables." The insulting and insolent, arrogant mentality of the Clintonites get to these guys and they are exasperated by the pervasive back-stabbing and obstructionism that pervades the Leftists and Anarchists (Antifa crowd). Remember this: most Americans have come to understand that Washington is a gigantic parasite on the backs of the average working American, and the USA survives not because of Washington, but in spite of it. Along comes Mr. Trump and, finally, there is someone from the outside who tells this insolent elite to go f#@k off and take their stupid ideas and shove it, and the average people who have suffered under the thumb of Washington bureaucrats applaud the bravery. What you are seeing with Schiff and this Impeachment is payback for being an outsider and not genuflecting to the long-time, permanent residents of Congress, specifically Pelosi and Nadler. Is Mr. Trump being vindictively attacked? You beet he is. Are these really impeachable offenses? Not at all. This is classic Clintonista elitist demagoguery, I am sorry to say. And it will fail. It is totally snot-nosed, and the players disgust me. And, I dare say, also BigJets. Cheers.
  26. 6 points
    Nope. Nonsense. I'll believe it when I see it. It would be amazing to see independently verified details of Aramco's finances and oil reserves. And I am not talking about bribed third party "auditors" spouting off Aramco's party line hooey. I am talking about actual, verified, independent facts that can be examined, poked, prodded, and questioned. Since Aramco basically cannot comply with Western norms for transparency, the trading of Aramco stocks will remain far away New York and London stock exchanges.
  27. 6 points
    I have a Masters degree in Economics. It does not give me any advantage by itself in the world of trading crude oil. I have a Masters degree in Finance. It has provided me with the tools to lose millions in the stock market. Seems like a waste of time and money on my behalf doesn't it ? By losing millions I learned my most valuable lessons by asking myself " Where does the money go ?" It seems to evaporate. It doesn't. It gets concentrated into the hands of a few. All stocks. All commodities markets are set up for one reason. Options trading. The most lucrative options market in the world is WTI. The most lucrative for the market makers of WTI that is. I have traded options from the short side for decades. The OVX ( Oil Volatilty Index ) is currently 32.2. The volatity index for the S&P is 14.8. This makes a huge difference in the pricing of puts and calls. Today I Sold to Open 2 Jan 58 calls at 1.25 each. Using all the same criteria except replacing the OVX with the VIX into the Black-Scholes calculator gives 52 cents. These options expire in 12 days. The further out in time I go this disparity in pricing becomes even more significant. You'll never see this strategy in a book or on Youtube. I started with 1 WTI contract in Nov 2017. Paid in full. No margin. I now control 8 contracts. All paid in full. I have never met another trader that does what I do. I've run across thousands of traders over the course of my 40 years in finance. Not one. It's almost like it's a closed society. Economics and finance enabled me to know the possibilities. Up until 2 years ago I had clientele. Had some for decades. Once I figured this out I fired them all. Best day of my life.
  28. 6 points
    I like your list. One addendum I would add is executive management experience. It is well known (albeit forgotten in all the hype surrounding Obama) that state governors make better presidents than senators or congressmen, because the skillset is totally different. Someone like Biden can spend a 30 year career in the Senate and never introduce a single piece of legislation, let alone "manage" anything more that a staff of yes men. On the experience side, Trump is completely inexperienced as a politician. Many people like myself see that as a positive, but every professional politician (and they are legion) see that as decidedly negative. Many people like to compare Trump to Reagan, but as you adroitly pointed out, Reagan was most certainly a professional politician by the time he ran for President. Eisenhower was merely a general and obviously an outsider to politics as Trump is. However, with his pedigree (winning WWII helps), no one dared subject him to the kind of attacks Trump experiences daily. Furthermore it was quite frankly a better time then. Newspapers and the three networks employed actual journalists who had professional standards, not pitch men pretending to be journalists.
  29. 6 points
    Also sir I would add that we very evidently have a differing opinion of the word 'independently'. May I suggest that parental involvement in her 'navigation', whether transportational or in life decisions, is not in fact a life or childhood led 'totally independently', so it seems it is what you claim that has no basis. This is why, as shown above, you contradicted yourself within minutes. I would also personally change the wording of 'helping her navigate' to 'abusing her condition and good intentions' through life. And I would also contemplate this is not a decision a child 'independently' could make at 15. Maybe in Sweden the law is somewhat different, but I do not believe this decision can remotely be considered good parenting after developing the conditions she has at age 11. Defend her cause all you wish but to suggest any 'independence' in her life is sheer ignorance I'm afraid sir.
  30. 6 points
    In fairness sir I believe I could throw this statement back to you, as the 'others' you 'rely on at your discretion' involve tabloid trash and personal bios on platforms such as Facebook. Hardly the Financial Times is it sir? Incidentally I hope this is not a case of me committing 'whataboutyouism' Mr Smith? Sorry, I jest. When said author 'writes', for want of a better term, for what I consider trash, then there is no need to 'determine' anything sir in my opinion. If you wish to not only read articles such as this, but to quote them to others as if undisputed fact, then I'm afraid to inform you that you seem a little swayed by the most basic journalism. Therefore the line 'how you choose to inform yourself' becomes somewhat ironic when discussing any topic with you at all I fear. From what I have seen of your content, I presume this is the reason you have been arguing with other users with regard to the President's impeachment hearings. I would strongly suggest that you atleast consider changing your journalistic sources sir, if only for a fuller spectrum of potential information. As you yourself stated, 'how you choose to inform yourself is a matter of your discretion', but it appears you have not been 'discreet' in establishing what you read, for instance an individual's Facebook page as proof of apparently anything, and that will do you no favors I fear.
  31. 6 points
    To be fair sir, I requested some knowledge, as 'opinions are no substitute for knowledge', and you posted several links to what I would consider tabloid trash in all honesty. If this is what you personally classify as 'knowledge' then we have little more to discuss I am afraid to say. The British would not even use these papers to wrap fish and chips up to the best of my knowledge. That said, in fairness to you I opened most of the links sir and within the 'parents' one I could not help but note the irony of the final two lines. But no one gets from New York to Montreal to Edmonton and on to Chile for free. Is it just her parents? Anyone speaking against any aspect of climate change gets accused of being in the pocket of Big Oil, so if she gets to scold the planet, she needs to be more transparent than a mere Facebook posting.
  32. 6 points
    I would tend to agree sir, but it seems what you consider 'knowledge' in most topics ironically is opinion? Could you tell me then please with your vast 'knowledge' of her life how she does manage these feats? Did she pay for the boats by doing a newspaper round perhaps? Did she simply receive an invitation to the UN through the post? This page clearly would not be biased in any way would it? I stand in awe of your knowledge and choice of source material, the individual in question's personal facebook page. It is of little wonder why people react to you the way they do sir.
  33. 6 points
    With respect sir, a teenage girl does not voyage on boats round the world or manage to enter international UN meetings 'independently' in my humble opinion. Also her facebook bio that you linked I would guess was potentially not written by herself, as the English in all fairness is too good, and she seems to not frequent school too often.
  34. 6 points
    No, that is not true. What happened is that we finally have a President wise enough to deal with how badly we were being treated by the Chinese government. To be clear, we want the best for the Chinese people and those of every nation.
  35. 6 points
    I suppose everyone brings their baggage from the past. The first people to get hurt by a trade war are the farmers and blue-collar workers. I grew up on a farm and ranch. The soybean farmers are committing suicide at such a rapid rate that they now have suicide hotlines in places where no one did that sort of thing. The steel mills are so-so; the greatest demand for steel right now is pipeline steel and it either comes from a Russian-owned subsidiary in Regina, Canada or from China, with a little more each day being made here in the good ole US of A. I am a big proponent of democracy, and am pulling for Hong Kong, but not the trade war. Again, I have coffee with my good friend who won the Nobel Prize for coming up with the ratio by which asset classes are rated, and he taught for years at Stanford. He has said a hundred times that no one wins in a trade war. Certainly, and importantly since this is an oil and gas site, we have not won anything in this trade war. For US oil and LNG exports to China, this has been a pyrrhic victory only. They have turned increasingly to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Okay, so I'm out of synch. I voted for Mr. Trump and will very likely vote for him again, but I have to tell my story like I feel it.
  36. 6 points
    Unfortunately you are one one of the many who peddle conspiracy theories and prefer to remain ignorant of US investigation after investigation that renders your version of reality a false narrative as so clearly enunciated in Dr Hill's testimony on Friday.
  37. 6 points
    Ah yes, the CHinese who have inflated their currency by 10X.... sure their banks can give positive interest rates, if you print so much money it turns into toilet paper. Zimbabwe has positive interest rates and so does Venezuela and Argentina... Only reason CHina has not cratered is because the international greedy bastards are letting them hold the exchange ratio constant while China's monetary pool has increased over 10X..... I know, many say it is 30X. Sorry, I took the lower number.
  38. 6 points
    P.S. Eric Ciaramella is deep state, and is not an actual whistleblower. Meme haters, please feel free to hate.
  39. 6 points
    HR 3289: This thread is starting from a false premise. Go read the bill. I've provided the synopsis above. This bill forces absolutely no action on any international entity. In fact, the only requirement is for the President - he must evaluate and report to Congress annually on the status of Hong Kong's autonomy and whether continued designation of Hong Kong as a 'Special Economic Zone' is justified and in the best interest of the Hong Kongese People. So lets analyze... Not entirely true... President gets to determine execution of said law. Theoretically you are correct, but until the Supreme Court Starts ruling differently, for all practical purposes, no. Ah, nope. Does not force anyone in government to take any action against China. And the bill references 'universal suffrage' exactly once - when it references "Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China" - Chapter III, Article 26 to be exact (but I'm no expert...) 12 hours ago, frankfurter said: Universal suffrage was never and is not a priviledge granted by the UK, nor accepted by China, as part of the hand-over nor as part of the Basic Law. Actually, it is. Chapter III, Article 26 of the basic law: Nope. See above. Not changing any Law of Hong Kong. Suffrage was already in Basic Law. There is nothing true about this statement. 12 hours ago, frankfurter said: Also, the Bill refers to a "Government of Hong Kong" when in fact no such government exists. Wrong again. See Chapter 4 of "Basic Law: Chapter IV : Political Structure" Section 1: The Chief Executive Section 2: The Executive Authorities Section 3: The Legislature Section 4: The Judiciary Section 5: District Organizations Section 6: Public Servants All defined. Unless you have a different definition of government - but this would be trying to argue that a city or state government wasn't a government because it was subject to the Federal government. All governing bodies that govern people, aka, All governments. Ah, no, no, and no. Has a Chief Executive, An Executive Council, Legislature, Judiciary, and Districts. It's a government as defined by the word government. Not attempting to usurp power either. That's in the basic law. Again, no part of this statement is true. Wrong again - not forcing (as discussed above), no hostile action (as discussed above - also, ), and no action required (also above). Nuclear power - oooo... are we supposed to be intimidated? Or what's the point of mentioning this? Precursor for declaration of war? The bill allows for the eventual cancellation of a special privilege because the condition the privileged was granted on is no longer true. It's not a punishment... it's not even a revocation of a special privilege for crying out loud! It's the allowance for the POSSIBILITY of some FUTURE POTENTIAL revocation of A SPECIAL PRIVILEGE. Probably true - even though they promised it in their basic law. (WOW, something that was correct in this - I missed that on my first pass!) How is this forcing us into any conflict? And how exactly would that conflict go nuclear? So how'd a "dumbed-down, drugged-up, apathetic, pathetic" American do assessing the situation here? Because it seems acceptable to me... Reference for those of you tired with being told "Basic Law - anything against China is wrong!" https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/index.html
  40. 6 points
    I have little use for reddit. The only reason I go to Reddit is to read the amusement on the memes posted on the censored / restricted sub-forum r/The_Donald. And today, I visited for the first time a sub-forum r/Mr_Donald and that subforum was banned 5 minutes after I visited it for the first time. Argggghhh. Reddit moderators are mostly useless SJW wankers, censorship is apparently all they know. Reddit: don't like it? Ban it! 8chan is still down, and its designated replacement 8kun is still not ready. 4chan has been comped [compromised] for years, although /pol/ can still be amusing on occasion: I'm running out of places where I can still freely cause trouble online and laugh with like-minded free-speechers. Yes, I'm aware that I'm a moderator here. Still seems to me that an old fart with loads of oil & gas experience and salty offshore oil platform experience tied with my decades of encouraging Freedom of Speech makes me somewhat (kinda) suitable to be an outspoken moderator on this forum. Yes, there is a difference between "anything goes" Chan image boards and this wide-topic-spectrum oil & gas forum. Don't like my opinions? Please feel free to complain about me to Oil Price staff. Or if you are easily amused, please do feel free to complain about me to the current resident pro-China Jello AI bot + its hapless human handler, because that would amuse me endlessly. Mental pretzel gymnastics run through AI circuits can be ... pretty weird. No idea which AI bot I am referring to? Search "Jello" here. Meantime, to lurkers and posters in general... please do speak your mind freely, just don't be a jerk about it. It's easy to just troll and piss people off; it is far more difficult (and immensely more satifying) to nudge people to laugh + think and perchance re-evaluate some ideas and opinions by gently poking and laughing at absurdities. So anyway, I'm kicking back today with a nice bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon + assorted cheeses and pistachios and mixed nuts. I rarely have alcohol, so this wine bottle should last all afternoon and evening, in pleasant sips, mingled with complimentary tastes of the cheeses and nuts. And browsing through some remarkable old reference books, both politically correct and decidedly politically incorrect. Conflicting viewpoints are a spice of life, and the spice must flow. Life is good : )
  41. 5 points
    My opinions about individual Chinese has nothing to do with my opinion of their government and its foreign policy. Just because we criticised their government you assume we're criticizing their people? Not to mention their government is a ruling hierarchical oligarchy that represents a tiny fraction of their population. They not only do not have a democracy they directly oppose it! Therefore unlike the rather weak logic Bin Laden used to attack civilians, there is no fundamental reason to blame poor Chinese citizens whatsoever.
  42. 5 points
    Tune into BBC for some more sounds of victory by conservatives. ( A relative term however.)
  43. 5 points
    Joseph, I am sure I am wasting my time as this is your only post but in case you are still following this... If you are correct, which I don't believe, and we fully replace the ICE and energy production with Wind and Solar the demand for fossil fuels does not go away. Fossil fuel is really the wrong name it is used in most everything we have in modern life not as a fuel but as a raw material. Tonight when you eat dinner look around every piece of plastic is made from fossil fuels, yes they are working on replacing oil in plastic but they haven't done it yet. In addition to the plastic: - look at your wife most of her make up came from O&G, -Look at your clothes a large percentage is most likely made from O&G. -Did you cook dinner in non-stick cookware if so made from O&G. -When you drove home from work did you happen to drive on any Asphalt if so made from O&G. -Do you a fruit or vegetable purchased from the store? It is coated with wax which is from O&G. And if it is not niche grown it was fertilized with O&G fertilizer. -On your drive home I expect you used something with rubber tires, made from O&G. -I hope you washed your hands before dinner. If so most soaps and detergents are made from O&G. -The refrigerator you got the food out of is insulated. The insulation is made from O&G. -By the way the solar panel that supplied the power to run your light made from O&G Jay.
  44. 5 points
    @Papillon If my old fellow service man DT (by the way DT thanks for your service) has paid you respect I can only further apologise for feeling you out, it must have seemed strange to be randomly barraged from some person you have never heard of, you did well, I had no reason whatsoever for jumping on your case, you sir will be well respected here. DT and I have campaigned in various theatres, I was his spotter during various covert operations, never one to grab the limelight as a spotter, I always left DT to take the credit, I'm sure he will be first to admit we were and still are a team, DT was always a good wordsmith but he wasn't very good at numbers hence why we maid such a good team, this is now evident in his trading. Many nights were spend listening to his stories over the comms, but when it came down to business he always got confirmation. I saw you are half English, where is the other half, Scotland maybe, that would be good for DT moving ahead, anyway don't apologise for your English or understanding of it, your English is better than mine, but Im Scottish, so best not go there, even though the sasanachs don't realise we are speaking their own mother tongue from centuries ago, but we cut them slack. Okay Rambled On to quote the best band in History, even DT and Im sure @Rob Plant will also agree, he better he wrote it. Cheers and great weekend to you Sir and all my friends on OP.......
  45. 5 points
    U.S. MSM apparently doesn't want to report much about this news; the only newsworthy events as far as CNN is concerned are Orange Man Bad and Peach Mints and other silly fluff. Anyway, Trump's stategy against Iran's absolute religious dictatorship government is working. (Similarly, Trump's strategic trade plans to level the playing field with China and EU are also working quite nicely, thank you very much. U S. MSM doesn't want to cover this news either. Because Orange Man Peach Mints 24/7 news.) Thanks to Trump, the Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt One of the reasons behind IMF's gloomy picture of Iran's economy is linked to the Trump administration's decision not to extend its waiver for Iran's eight biggest oil buyers; China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea. Iran's national currency, the rial, also continues to lose value: it dropped to historic lows. One US dollar, which equaled approximately 35,000 rials in November 2017, now buys you nearly 110,000 rials. The critics of President Trump's Iran policy have been proven wrong: the US sanctions are imposing significant pressure on the ruling mullahs of Iran and the ability to fund their terror groups. Before the US Department of Treasury leveled secondary sanctions against Iran's oil and gas sectors, Tehran was exporting over two million barrel a day of oil. Currently, Tehran's oil export has gone down to less than 200,000 barrel a day, which represents a decline of roughly 90% in Iran's oil exports. Iran has the second-largest natural gas reserves and the fourth-largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, and the sale of these resources account for more than 80 percent of its export revenues. The Islamic Republic therefore historically depends heavily on oil revenues to fund its military adventurism in the region and sponsor militias and terror groups. Iran's presented budget in 2019 was nearly $41 billion, while the regime was expecting to generate approximately $21 billion of it from oil revenues. This means that approximately half of Iran's government revenue comes from exporting oil to other nations. Even though Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasts about the country's self-sufficient economy, several of Iran's leaders recently admitted the dire economic situation that the government is facing. Speaking in the city of Kerman on November 12, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged for the first time that "Iran is experiencing one of its hardest years since the 1979 Islamic revolution" and that "the country's situation is not normal." ... ... In addition, the Islamic Republic appears to be scrambling to compensate for the loss of revenues it is encountering. A few days ago, for example, Iran's leaders tripled the price of gasoline. It appears a sign of desperation to generate revenues in order to fund their military adventurism in the region and support their proxies and terror groups. This increase immediately led people to rise up against the government. In the last few days, several Iranian cities have become the scenes of widespread protests and demonstrations. ...
  46. 5 points
    Over the years I've had about a half dozen Iranians work for me. They were universally smart as hell and very proud of their Persian heritage. Remember, Rome had to stop at the Persian Empire they never gained an inch against them, trust me, they tried. I seriously doubt the majority of Iranians are happy with the mullahs, but they don't dare stick their necks out. They're not pleased to have a target on their backs and just want to live pleasant lives. The mullahs have other ideas and are "volunteering" them for immolation.
  47. 5 points
    Marcin I really wasnt going to reply as I think we're done on this thread, but I had to react to some of your presumptions. Firstly how do you know what I know about Europe? Secondly my colleague was in China for several weeks meeting dozens of suppliers he has dealt with for decades, they are personal friends. They are the owners of these businesses employing thousands of people. My colleague discusses in great detail how their businesses are performing, current/ future market conditions, trade war effects (all the points you raise). He is very experienced and knowledgeable and is very much pro China and is extremely worried that these businesses will fail in the near future (as are the owners of these factories). He experienced zero positive replies on the state of each of their markets/businesses and came back with serious concerns about our supply chain. You can argue that this is a very small sample of the thousands of factories in China, but the sentiment from all was negative and they all state every other factory is feeling the effect of the trade wars and its a real concern across the country. Take that info as a barometer of Trump's tariffs or don't, I'm passed caring now. On a side note I have visited China many times and the people I find to be lovely , hard working , generous people. No problem there from me. Have you ever actually been to China? You seem to react to any negative comments towards China in a combative manner which I don't understand.
  48. 5 points
    Actually, I'd argue the odds are EXTREMELY high... ^^And he even explained why! As far as CNN - for the Unaware: https://thepoliticalinsider.com/cnn-airports-notice-why/ Also for reference: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/harvard-study-reveals-huge-extent-anti-trump-media-bias
  49. 5 points
    Your civics lessons are lacking. The three branches of government were designed to create the "checks and balances", Not the two entrenched parties. All they've done (and the Demoncrats are the worst offenders here, hands down) is CORRUPT the intention of the 3 branches and misuse them in their constant and unrelenting quest for more power. It was Demoncrat judges who decided to "legislate from the bench" and created "laws" out of thin air that no one voted for. There is NO WAY IN HELL that was what our founders intended. People like you pretend that republicans picking judges who WON'T legislate from the bench is somehow suborning the process. It isn't, it's trying to restore sanity to an out of balance situation. The judge Kavanaugh fiasco is a perfect example of the depths to which the democrats will stoop to thwart the other side, regardless of the fact that every one of their star accusers was an outrageous liar. Had the FBI done their duty, and actually INTERVIEWED these women, officially, they'd all be chilling in prison right now. But no, can't have honesty at the highest levels of our law enforcement can we? Instead they have to ruin General Flynn in a bushwhack interview process that never should have occurred and that will be overturned by honest judges if Flynn's lawyers ever get their full day in court, something the Demoncrats and their allies in the FBI are fighting like hell to avoid.
  50. 5 points