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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/13/2019 in Posts

  1. 12 points
    Well, here's the math: An "excellent" shale well, as with merely "good" or even "punk," produces the most during the first year. Then fairly rapid decline sets in. That initial production, the IP, basically bankrolls the company that drilled that well. The lifetime production of such a well is based on the trajectory of the IP parabola, and that, in turn, depends on the thickness of the shale layer, how oil-soaked it is, and matters such as porosity of the rock, how easily fractured, and whether or not it is held in place by a pinch-out (a non-porous subterranean barrier). An excellent well with a big IP is usually thought to have a lifetime yield of about 600,000 barrels, which even at $50/barrel (which can't go on forever, can it?) comes to . . . $30,000,000. It costs just as much to drill a mediocre well as an excellent well--about $6,000,000. Many of the wells drilled into Tier-1 rock pay out in the first two years of life. That's one of the reasons EOG is so successful: They have great geologists and engineers working on this and their GPS drilling is second to none. Another reason is because they buy cheaply, drill out a field quickly, and by the time other companies move in, they're on their way to the next great Great. But you're right, every driller is running out of Tier-1 rock, especially in the Permian where "child" wells (infills) are between 20-30% less productive than their "parent" well (the "wildcat" in the tract). This is because of a pressure sink and also due to porosity and the near absence of pinch-outs. Okay, move on to Tier-2 rock, which is frequently thinner shale but sometimes closer to the surface. A pretty good well is projected to produce about half that of a Tier-1. That's still $15,000,000 return for a $6M investment, and again about 50% of that comes with the IP. Something that no one ever mentions is "re-frack," which is going to eventually become--I think--a pretty big deal. Spend $2-3M for re-fracturing a good well and in many cases--especially in the Bakken, where they say 60% of wells are re-frackable--and you wind up with a brand new oil well that is as good as the old one (or better, because completion techniques improve). The thing that is killing most shale drillers is the usual: too much debt. But all this pessimism in the WSJ and elsewhere presupposes that we're never going to improve completion techniques, or discover cheaper ways to fracture rock, or handle the 2:1 water load that comes up with the oil (think reuse and pipelines instead of trucking it to disposal wells). Me? I'm no expert but I think shale oil just saved our asses; instead of escalating a conflict in the Middle East (Iraq comes to mind), we are mostly just imposing economic sanctions on Iran and showing KSA how to run their radar. This is amateur hour when I explain this, but also factual data from someone who loses a lot of sleep about the shale business. I hope this helps, because I don't have a single link to show you and I don't even know where to find one for sure. My only "link" is from putting my money where my mouth is, which probably wasn't the smartest thing I've ever done in my long life. But it has forced me to study like I was back in college, and they say that keeps Alzheimer's at bay.
  2. 11 points
    Copying this delicious comment in full. Great overview of the story so far. https://np.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/d98t4d/asking_for_it/ Let me break this down from a fundamental standpoint. Joe Biden, the former Vice President of the United States has just been caught extorting Ukraine to keep his son out of trouble. His son, Hunter Biden, who was kicked out of the Navy in 2014 for cocaine violations and arrests, is not a man of integrity. This is the same man that cheated on his wife, with his dead brothers widow. Just a few weeks after his Navy discharge, and also in 2014, despite having absolutely no experience, Hunter gets a 600k per year job (that’s 50k per MONTH!) on the Board of a Ukraine energy firm. This despite having no experience in the the energy sector and not knowing how to speak a word of the languages used in Ukraine. After a short period of time, Ukraine has had enough of him. They appoint a prosecutor to go after him for alleged crimes and do what prosecutors do. This doesn’t sit well with Joe Biden. Not at all. Joe Biden, while still Vice President, calls Ukraine and tells them that if the Prosecutor is not fired immediately, the United States will not be sending them the 1 BILLION dollars in aid that we normally send them. Now think about that? This is YOUR tax dollars that he’s using as leverage to stop a criminal investigation on his son. That’s a huge problem. Of course Ukraine immediately fires the prosecutor because they desperately need the aid that the United States provides. Also, Ukraine has to rehire New prosecutor (get ready for this) that Biden himself has to approve. Is this not Crazy! Now fast forward to present time. President Trump during a recent phone call speaks to the new Ukraine President congratulating him on his win. During the conversation President Trump mentions Biden. Alleging that he has possibly committed a crime. The Ukraine President says that he is aware and has been wanting to talk with President Trump about that. How does President Trump know about this? Because Biden is very stupid and talks about doing exactly just that during a recorded video. It’s in the video that President Trump tweeted out personally on his Twitter feed yesterday. Now of course before President Trump tweeted this, Biden when questioned about it, played dumb. He also lied and said he has never spoken to his son about any of his son’s out of country business adventures. He even gets mad at the reporter and starts yelling that he should not be investigated, but that Trump should be. So a “whistleblower” (it was just released that his lawyer, who organize the whistleblower’s statement, donated to Biden’s presidential campaign) goes to the press (The New York Times) and says Trump called the Ukraine President and that he 8 separate times, in a hostile phone call, pressured the Ukraine President into investigating Hunter Biden and Joe Biden for doing the above mentioned. The Ukraine President states that he very much remembers the phone call and that it was a very pleasant phone call and President Trump absolutely did not pressure him or threaten to or deprive his country of anything. He also acknowledged that his government was threatened by Joe Biden by withholding aid if the Biden issue wasn’t dropped. But oddly enough, at least for the first few days, the press didn’t mention the sins of Joe and Hunter. And in the New York Times piece about the “whistleblower”, if you read past the headline, and towards the very end of the story, you’ll see that the The New York Times slips in the fact that the “whistleblower” DOESN’T have any direct knowledge of the phone call and didn’t hear it personally. Seems like a handy piece of information to have upfront, doesn’t it? The person saying this happened never heard it themselves! That’s not a whistleblower, that’s gossip. But what does Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi do with that gossip? She foams at the mouth and calls a press conference saying that she is launching an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. An impeachment inquiry! Over unverified gossip! Does that Sound desperate to you? She accuses President Trump, based on information from said “whistleblower” who never heard any part of the phone conversation, of threatening to withhold military support to Ukraine unless the investigation into the Biden’s is resumed. She is accusing the President of a quid pro quo. Which is EXACTLY what Joe Biden did. The only problem is that no such thing happened with President Trump. She held that press conference, yesterday, BEFORE SHE OR ANYONE ELSE, HAD POSSESSION OR EVEN READ THE DAMN CONVERSATION TRANSCRIPT! President Trump approved the White House to release an unedited, Non-redacted transcript of the entire phone conversation. That’s what a victim does, not criminal. And guess what? They did just that today. And again guess what? It’s nothing like what was reported. I read it. It’s not even close. During the conversation President Trump says Joe Biden has recently been bragging about what he did for Hunter and that a lot of people in America are concerned about it. He he wants to find out what happened. Totally within his right as an American President. The (newly elected) Ukraine President tells President Trump on the phone that he’s putting together a cabinet and will be selecting a team to investigate the claim. That’s it, nothing hostile, no mention or allegation at all of President Trump threatening to withholding military aide like the media and Pelosi said. President Trump didn’t keep bringing it up 8 times. Absolutely fake news. Now that the White House released the phone call, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of her posse should be embarrassed for jumping the gun with the announcement of an impeachment inquiry. Biden, who even as a former Vice President, can still be impeached (would lose all pension and benefits among other things) should step out of the presidential race and await his fate. This is actual political corruption. Criminal political corruption. Not just an ethics violation. And it absolutely should be dealt with at the highest level of our courts. So did President Trump have a right to ask Ukraine to help look into a possible matter of corruption involving them and Vice President Joe Biden? Absolutely. Treaty 106-16 is a document signed and passed in 1999 that allows for Ukraine to cooperate with mutual legal assistance on any matters with the United States. FUN FACT: Joe Biden was even in that Congress. Shhh. Don’t tell the democrats.
  3. 10 points
    Unbelievable.That'll show 'em. Some sugar cane derivative on a global landmark of art. ''Let's free The Louvre'' by making it dirty for a few hours. Brilliant. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-activists-paris/activists-daub-louvres-pyramid-with-molasses-in-anti-total-protest-idUKKBN1WC1SF PARIS (Reuters) - Environmental activists daubed the Louvre’s glass pyramid with thick molasses on Friday in protest at what they said were the environmentally-damaging activities of museum sponsor Total, a multinational oil and gas company. Clad in black, the activists belonging to “Liberons le Louvre” (Let’s Free the Louvre) plastered dirty hand-prints over the museum’s famed 70-foot-high glass-and-steel pyramid, a much-loved Paris landmark, as tourists gazed on. Total has been a Louvre sponsor in past years, the museum said on its website, including support for renovations to the Apollo Gallery and the creation of an Islamic arts department. They dipped their hands into bags of molasses - a black treacle that results from refining sugar cane - before smearing it over the structure to denounce what they called “the dirty hands” of Total. “The handprints on the Pyramid can be cleaned away easily, whereas the environmental footprint left by Total is not as easy to clean”, said Victoire, a member of the collective. Another member, Kester Lovelse, told Reuters: “A cultural institution should not be receiving money from a multinational company that continues to endanger the climate, pollute the climate and leave such a dirty environmental footprint on the earth.” “Even if we are not the main patron of the Louvre, we are proud to support the initiatives of this emblematic institution,” Total said in a statement to Reuters. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - EDIT - Then all these people drove home to their houses full of oil based products. Brilliant. They are true heroes.
  4. 10 points
    I read the article ‘Millennials Really Do Ruin Everything, And Big Oil Is Next’, by Julianne Geiger, this morning. Apparently, once again, the message is that we must placate this generation in an effort to survive. I refuse to buy this nonsense and I think that it is unhealthy to do so. I found a list of Millennial characteristics on the internet, and present them here: · Narcissistic · Lazy · Coddled · Delusional · Civically and politically disengaged · Focused on materialistic values Apparently, among Millennials, the trend is “more of an emphasis on extrinsic values such as money, fame, image and less emphasis on intrinsic values such as self-acceptance, group affiliation and community. From what I have read, it seems that we, the ‘older generation’ must bow down to these entitled little snits and ‘work with them’ on such issues as flexible work hours, working from home, ‘onboarding’ (a favorite HR buzzword) them once we have actually given them a job, and so forth. Keep in mind that this generation has amassed a mountain of student loan debt. I will not get into the argument that education is too expensive, but these Millennials knew the rules of the student loan game when they decided to play it, they got their degrees, now they do not want to take responsibility for that decision and want the loans forgiven – that is, the American taxpayer to pay for their bad decision making process. These children did not have to attend universities, they had other options such as the military or a trade…but dammit they were entitled to go to university! Now let’s carry that thought further. We, as corporate entities, are now expected to hire these people, who have already shown poor decision making capabilities, who need to be coddled and apparently have no loyalty to anyone except themselves, and now allow them to create their own schedules and possibly work from home to achieve the right ‘work/life balance’. Does anyone else see the opportunity for abuse and the subsequent lack of production? Furthermore, we are supposed to provide ‘premium on-the-job’ training, an ‘easily climbable career ladder’, and ensure that these people are convinced that ‘their job means something’. Let’s just be honest with ourselves, these Millennials have little or nothing to recommend themselves to the work force. They have no work ethic, no loyalty, poor decision making capabilities. They feel entitled to succeed, yet are not willing to put the effort in to make that happen – we are supposed to ensure that they are successful in their job, not them! Would you actually want one of these people running your companies, making executive decisions and spending your money? Apparently, if we do not coddle these kids and make them feel wanted in the corporate workspace, they will simply leave (remember, no loyalty) and provide their wealth of knowledge and experience to a competitor. Do you remember in the ‘old days’ that you were warned that if you kept jumping jobs that it would show up on your resume and that eventually people would refrain from hiring you? I believe that is still in effect today. Granted, these Millennials are now the pond that we must fish in for talent. But there are still many out there, born in that specific period, who maintain a strong work ethic, are loyal, are willing to work to progress and at the end of the day are appreciative of having a job. These are the ‘Millennials’ which we should be looking to nurture and hire. We should not get into the mindset that we are forced to hire and mollycoddle Millennials simply to fill a slot in the organizational chart. Doing so will degrade any company in the long run.
  5. 9 points
    Well there are differences in production capacity and processing capacity and it was the latter that was impacted. There are two important levels of processing that were being discussed. The first level is called a GOSP, gas oil separation plant. That component is the first stage in processing the oil by removing the water and then separating the oil and gas which flow to different processing facilities or if oil, to storage tanks. The GOSPs for some fields are distributed around the fields which is the case for Khurais. So no loss of production occurred at Khurais other than what had to be shut in temporarily. What was lost at Khurais was 600kbbl/day of stabilization capacity. That is the part of the processing that removes H2S from the oil and also reduces the vapor pressure so that the oil can be put on ships for export or stored in tanks long term. There is enough oil used domestically in KSA that not all of it needs to be stabilized because it can be sent directly to a refinery instead of on a ship for export. So what has been lost at Khurais is 600kbbl/day may not even be needed but very likely it was being used because that stabilization plant has been expanded by 300kbbl/day in the last 5 years. Why expand if you don't use the capacity? OK so now to Abqaiq where 7mmbbl/day can be processed directly from the oil fields if I understand correctly. The facility at Abqaiq can process 7mmbbl/day from the GOSP phase to the export phase. The oil from the fields first must pass through the spherical oil separators or spheroids as they have been referred to. There are 11 of those at Abqaiq and 8 were damaged which is 72%. The oil must first be passed through those in order to reach the stabilizers. Thus, 5.1mmbbl/day of both production and processing capacity were lost and will not be restored in short order unless some of the 8 were not seriously damaged. However, we can see that at least 5 of the 11 were seriously damaged and will be out of commission for quite some time, that is 45% or 3.18mmbbl/day of production AND processing that is impacted. The media reported on the 5.1mmbbl/day plus 600kbbl/day of lost processing capacity which was correct. Now maybe they don't need all of that processing capacity and weren't using it but they weren't exporting up to their normal levels when this happened. They were at around 6.7mmbbl/day or so for August I believe. In any case, they have certainly lost 3.2mmbbl/day of production processing. So supposing that Abqaiq has 18 stabilizers and five of them were severely damaged. This amounts to 27% of the export processing capacity or about 2mmbbl/day of lost export processing at Abqaiq. However, the remaining stabilizer towers may not all be operable due to proximity to towers that have to be repaired. It may be unsafe to operate the rest of the towers in close proximity that were not damaged. I believe that is part of the obfuscations that are taking place in the media and by KSA itself. What we really want to know is exactly how much export capacity they have available, is it 6.8mmbbl/day? We can't know for certain because some oil is exported from the east coast and some from the west. I believe it was running about 5mmbbl/day on the east and 2mmbbl/day on the west. I think the Khurais field supplies the west while Ghawar and several others supply the east through Abqaiq. I believe that ALL of the export capacity of the east is at Abqaiq. So if Abqaiq was previously processing 5mmbbl/day, the question is how much is it doing now? The claim is that it's processing 4mmbbl/day. Hence, a loss of 1mmbbl/day at Abqaiq. I think the 600kbbl/day lost at Khurais will show up as a loss on the west coast. So it's my view that the most that the Saudis will be able to export going forward, until more units are repaired, is 5.2mmbbl/day. That is a far cry from the 8mmbbl/day they were exporting when they flooded the market and even the 7mmbbl/day that they have been exporting the last year or so. Hence, the market is going to be in deficit 2mmbbl/day for the next two months I think. I assume that the Saudis have some idea of what they can bring back by the end of November but my guess is that it won't be 2mmbbl/day, half that if they are lucky.
  6. 9 points
    This is accurate. Good people leave engineering because companies treat engineers like crap. Specifically: 1) The company expects competent engineers to work for the same, low salaries an incompetent immigrant will accept. 2) Training and continuing education have become nonexistent. 3) Non-engineering departments who have no clue how the company makes money are allowed to tell engineers what they'll accomplish (even if management's vision is impossible) and how they'll accomplish it. 4) The public universities have leaned so heavily on foreign students and professors that they've become incompetent. As a result, young engineers are forced to self-teach. This leads to frustration, burnout, and abandonment of the career. The list goes on, but you get the point: engineers get treated like crap. Eventually, there won't be enough competent engineers left to keep the idiots afloat, and these companies will go belly-up.
  7. 9 points
    I think the easiest arguement to use is this. When we look at sea levels, global temperatures and CO2 levels through the geological timeline there are events where an explosion of life coincides with high temperatures and much higher CO2 levels. The most obvious one was around the time when the dinosaurs were walking the earth. It implies that a warmer environment with more CO2 means bigger trees, more food which leads to much larger animals (See chart below). I've outlined two such events. It would be a reasonable arguement to say cold is far more dangerous to life on earth, for example what killed off the dinosaurs was a meteorite impact which threw up millions or billions of tonnes of dust into the atmosphere blocking out the sunlight and causing extreme cooling and a mass extinction (yes a real one not a greta one). This chart also shows the much tamer mini cycles of warming and cooling due to ice ages in the last million years. The problem I have with the global warming people is they look at data sets which are extremely short for a planet that has existed for 4.6 billion years, it's like looking at a painting with your nose almost touching it. They need to step back and look at the earths cycles over 10s of thousands, hundreds of thousands and millions of years not 120 years or 250. Also I have a big problem about how they select the starting point, I could pick a different one and show the oposite trend.
  8. 9 points
    I am not surprised at all. Think about it. Although KSA may have an impressive military machine on paper, with all the latest gadgets, they are not well trained and have never been tested. To go up against the Iranian military, which has been tested in the Iran-Iraq war and many proxy wars in the area, alone, with no outside support would be a bloodbath for KSA and would lead to the fall of the house of Saud. This being the case, a cease fire in Yemen and a call to bring Iran to heel by the international community is the only card left to play.
  9. 9 points
    Billm, it sounds like you're asking a question about the oil and gas industry as a whole. Not to be mean, but that's like asking about the automobile industry as a whole, neglecting to categorize it into luxury and standard issue, electric and ICE. It's not a bad question, even the way you ask it. I'll take a shot at it because I can help you with the nuances. In the rapidly changing world of drilling for tight oil that can only be released by hydraulic fracturing of "tombstone rock," --black shale, there is tremendous variation in the quality of the rock, how porous it is, how easily fractured it is, how much water comes up with the oil, and whether or not infrastructure is available to take it to market. In the not-so-distant past, a great deal of money was made by small drillers who either got lucky or, more likely, employed a great geologist or two, buying cheaply and drilling wells with tremendous IP. Again, luck came into play: the lucky ones sold at tremendous profit and moved on. Most didn't, thinking they could parlay a tiny company into the next Exxon. That set the stage for a shale oil boom. Lots of people wildly overpaid for acreage, using OPM. The cagey oil and gas people (Yates Brothers, Bass Brothers) sold to Exxon and Chevron when the super-majors determined they needed to get into the tight oil business. Even they overpaid, because that was before the parent-child well performance discrepancy was realized. There have been small operators that made all matter of strategies. One such was Ring Energy, which bought 75,000 acres in the core of the Permian, targeting only the San Andres formation. I do not own them. To get a look at how vicious this downturn has been, and how the dispirited opinion of Wall Street has hurt shale, Ring used to sell at $11 and is now at $1.50, where insiders are buying. Ring drills a simple well vertically into the San Andres, then a short lateral, fractures it lightly and puts it online. The well cost is half that of a complex well and the pay-out is usually about 18 months. Ring Energy is fighting for its survival from a valuation standpoint, but is actually doing pretty well at what they do. I would have to say that much larger companies are in the same boat, when you consider proportions. While there is tremendous variation in rock, style of drilling, completion, etc., the entire industry is overcast by a cloud of doom. This extends to the pipeline companies, even when it shouldn't, because they make their money from transporting oil and/or natural gas. There are great dividends being paid by BP, Total, Eni, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon, Chevron, and many pipeline MLP's. Their share prices are low. Again, doom prevails. I'm an oil and gas guy so this worries me. I'm not very well diversified in life because this is about all I know. They say that energy requirements of the planet will increase by 50% by 205o. I'm not quite sure where that's going to come from. There are vast stretches of desert in California. It's worthless land and has baked under a sweltering sun for millions of years. Be a great place for the biggest damn solar farm in the world. New Mexico and Arizona have the same thing. Not much rain in those places, so sunshine most of the time. Lots of wind in Texas wind corridor from Lubbock through Amarillo right on up to Wheeler. T. Boone Pickens, may he rest in peace, lost a lot of money on his wind farm plans. Others have succeeded. Building millions of electric cars, trucks, trains and airplanes is going to require trillions of dollars. People are going to balk at big tax increases. We could see a humongous recession. Oil and gas has always been risky. If you ask a guy like me, I think there are several dividend-paying stocks that are safe, their share prices on the floor. The Texas Pacific Land Trust is about a 150 years old and they own an awful lot of good rock, but also billions of gallons of water to use in fracking. The stock is volatile. Nobody knows where this is going. No one! This not is probably less an answer to your question and more the rambling of a man drinking his coffee after another sleepless night trying--in his dreams--to factor in when the rest of the world will wake up to the several basic facts in life: a) the Saudis are lying about the extent of their damage and when they can get it repaired, b) how thin the buffer will be between having a glut and living barrel to barrel during a cold winter by the Farmer's Almanac, c) how many more rigs are going to be laid down in the US before this turns around (170 have been laid down in the last year), d) when will drillers stop (indiscriminately) flaring natural gas (pure methane) into carbon dioxide (which is giving us a bad look in an already sour world), e) are my good rock holdings going to be left in the ground, f) is Elon Musk going to inherit the earth, and I could list about a million other things. My advice? If you want to invest in oil and gas, and you're interested in an income stream, stick with the super-majors that seem to have a good understanding what their mission is, and that they need to spread out their spacings, and start to diversify into algae farms, solar farms, wind, and so forth. I've named a bunch of those companies in the US and Europe. I'm not a stock broker or a financial adviser, just a guy. Me? I see the complete 100% abolition of coal, even in China and India. I see LNG as a tremendous utility company feedstock all over the world. Crude oil is going to be used more and more for petrochemicals. California will turn green from all those massive solar panels out in Death Valley, with massive power lines feeding energy to LA and San Francisco, and EV's will be mandated there. Long answer to a short question. I've run out of coffee. Use this if it helps you. I think it helped me.
  10. 9 points
    Aaaaaand this Biden corruption video has somehow been turned into an attempt to impeach Trump, while totally ignoring Biden. Watching this impeachment effort to get rid of Trump should be quite the circus.
  11. 9 points
    Here we go. Of course it was Iran. It could have been anyone and it would have been Iran. Why did we even need to waste the resources. It was going be be Iran. Even if it was/is Iran. That to me sounds like a Saudi problem. Not a United states problem. if Iran had bombed a major US refinery, do you think the Saudis would be chomping at the bit to be tagged in? Absolutely not. It's time for the Saudis to stand on their own two feet.
  12. 8 points
    Does no one find it odd that a random teenager was even in the room? Or who is funding this crap? It's mental. Oh, just a random girl scolding leaders of nations ... completely normal ... nothing to see here ... Even I know more about the oil industry than her, and trust me, that's saying something. Hint - I know FA.
  13. 8 points
    Bloomberg interviewed Aramco CEO yesterday . Two items to note : 1. CEO was asked if their production is now above the 9.8illion barrels they said they would cut to. CEO sheepishly answered , "a little" . So pumping and exporting more oil to get their income statement up for IPO. When asked how much he would not answer. 2. CEO was then asked how much production going forward. CEO then said , "The government sets production. We produce what the government sets as production." JUST THINK ABOUT THAT STATEMENT. Aramco wants to be a public transparent company listed on the world exchanges and the CEO states the monarchy really runs Aramco. YOU COULD NOT GET AWAY WITH THAT ON THE LONDON EXCHANGE OR NEW YORK EXCHANGE. There STILL is no boundary between (1) Saudi Government, (2) Sovereign Wealth Fund, (3) Aramco. Two Trillion dollar valuation . A joke. No transparency. If you invest in IPO you are investing in Kingdom of Saud, not in an oil company and will be at the mercy of their whims . I believe if things get tight, to hell with the shareholders, the 18,000 princes need their stipend increase. Isn't that what they really want. They want the world to be invested in their survival.
  14. 8 points
    So everyone saw the photographs, right? Who in his right mind really believes the Saudis are back up and running at capacity? They have 130 million barrels in reserve storage. I strongly suspect they're making up a shortfall to paint a pretty picture by the numbers.
  15. 8 points
    That's the oilfield for you though. I think it takes a different breed. I just got off a 63 day hitch in the middle of no where. It was almost 30 miles to a paved road. Same 14 hour days after safety meetings and hand overs. For me, it isnt grueling work, but it does take a different mindset than what the typical millennial is described as having. After those 63 days, I had a week off before going out for another indefinite hitch. Am I complaining? Hell no, I am very very glad to have the work. A good way to prepare for oilfield work, do some time in the military. In fact, I sometimes think there would be virtue in requiring a year or two of military service. That's for another thread though.
  16. 8 points
    I originally posted this on Redflagdeals and copy pasted it to here. I worked as a Journeyman Electrician in the Canadian oilsands since 2005 with some live plant and construction experience (got my ticket in 2004 working commercial work). This is an interesting conversation as I immediately said to my dad that there is now way they could re-build in just 2 weeks, unless damage was VERY minimal (HIGHLY UNLIKELY judging by the video). But to inspect everything after a fire like and know what needs to be replaced in 2 days would be impossible. My original post start here: Most people that comment on these situations have never worked in an oil/gas plant, so they do not realize how much WORK actually goes into a fire rebuild or the initial construction of one. Just from an electricians perspective, you have to install cable tray, then pull power cables, instrument cables, control cables, fire alarm cables, all which may have melted insulation from the fire. Most of the time you will also need a boom truck to carry the cable reels to the location prior to pulling. Some cable reels I have moved have been around 15,000 pounds. Some pulls will also require a tugger for the bigger cable which involves setting up sheaves and rollers (approximately every 5 feet), think about cable that is around 10-15 pounds per foot. Before replacing anything though they will first they have to figure out what needs replacing, then they will have to order the material. Some of it may even need to be manufactured. Once a cable is pulled into place you should point to point the cable, and megger it if it is a power cable to check for insulation integrity. Then once that is done you have to strip the outer jacket, install a Teck connector, gland the cable, strip the inner jacket, then finally terminate it. You will also have garbage to clean up from the left over cable and jackets. If they do have lots of cable to replace you also have to consider if the existing cable trays are completely full, so you may have to strip out the damaged cable before even starting to pull new (should be done anyways but they are in a rush). Everything takes time. Instruments could have been damaged and need replacing as well. If something like an I/O building or E-house (electrical) was damaged it could even be worse as this is where many cable originate from, panels might need replacing. Guaranteed they don't have all of this material sitting around as backup just in case of an attack.This is just from my perspective as an electrician who has work 15+ years (got ticked in 2004 from commercial work and started in oil plants in 2005), from construction to live plants. Who knows what the extent of the damage was though, but I feel they are trying to make it sound not as bad as it is judging by how big the fire was. They don't want a spike in oil prices from panic leading to a major recession. Also, I don't think Saudi wants to show vulnerability. In this case it was not only the fire they have to contend with, but also the explosions from the drone strike which could have caused additional damage. Could pipelines and flow valves have been damaged? Oil plants look crude, but they are actually very complex. I have always been told start up and re-starting a plant is always the most dangerous time to be in a plant as well....They better make sure they did the work right, especially if they are in a rush. There is a LOT of testing/pre commissioning work before restarting a plant. You don't just go and turn it back on.I am pretty sure after the 2005 fire at Suncor it took around 8 months for the rebuild, and that was in a relatively small part of the plant compared to multiple drone strikes throughout the Saudis plant. You can put as much manpower on a job as you want, but when there are too many people in one area, just like rush hour traffic, it just takes longer because people are in each others way.Full disclosure, I bought around $45,000 worth of CND mid cap oil stock last Wed. and Thursday. Today I purchased another $25,000 in CND mid cad oil stocks. If Saudi is back to full production in 2-3 weeks it won't be from their 2 plants that were damaged from these attacks. They might try and fudge the numbers from their stockpiles though, which is what I think they are going to do. Another thing I will add to this that I didn't think of in my original post was that even before rebuilding it would most likely take weeks to install scaffolding to work off of....Plus they would most likely have to bring scaffolders to site as well as the scaffolding. Just to inspect what is wrong them would most likely need scaffolding to access some areas, as EWP's (elevated work platforms) can't access everything and are a pain to work off for some situations.
  17. 8 points
    Check out the pictures of the damage to two different sites. There are 17 distinct impact points on critical infrastructure. There are probably five spheroids hit and four or five stabilizer columns out 18 at abquiq. This damage looks like months to fix but I don't know how much production it would inhibit.
  18. 7 points
    This entire narrative stinks. Seems to me that Trump's continued refusal to start a unilateral military attack against Iran (despite implied Saudi urging) has stumped MBS (Saudi Defense Minister), and the whole war scenario now seems to be de-escalating. The U.S. should call back most of its troops out of the Middle East, and let the Middle East fight amongst themselves like they have for countless centuries. Saudi crown prince warns of escalation with Iran, says he prefers political solution (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crown prince warned in an interview broadcast on Sunday that oil prices could spike to "unimaginably high numbers" if the world does not come together to deter Iran, but said he would prefer a political solution to a military one. ... ... "If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests," the crown prince said. "Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes." The crown prince, in an interview conducted on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, said he agreed with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the Sept. 14 attacks, which damaged the world's biggest petroleum-processing facility and knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply, were an act of war by Iran. But he said he preferred a peaceful resolution because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would collapse the global economy. ...
  19. 7 points
    President Trump has pretty much done what he promised to do on his campaign trail. That must be the biggest slap in the face to his haters. I'm sure there were many who thought "oh well, he'll never get anything done" Instead, he does every thing he said he would, including keeping oil prices down. I say this honestly, I have been impressed with his effectiveness in politics and his wisdom in keeping the U.S. out of foreign conflict. Especially considering he's met arguably the harshest critics and most political resistance of any American President. I definitely don't always agree with him, but he has been consistent to his promises.
  20. 7 points
    I have a question for everyone on this thread. Everyone seems to be castigating Trump for pulling 1000 troops out of Syria, which somehow stabs the Kurds (which Kurds?) in the back. What I have not seen is anyone willing to step up to the plate and offer to replace the US troops with troops of their own! Everyone is beating up on Trump while doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to mitigate the situation. Where is the UN, NATO, the EU, or China? Trump is ‘damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t’. He has never made a secret of the fact that he wanted to disengage in the region - it was part of his campaign! So once again, the world expects the US to be the world’s policeman. When Trump declines to do it, everyone else bitches and moans while the do absolutely nothing constructive.
  21. 7 points
    Zerohedge are gold cheerleaders and oil haters, always have been. They hate shale with a passion. I have been following them since they started back in 2009 or 8. One of the original commentators posts on a private investing board I have been at for 20 years. He is rarely anything but sarcastic and hyperbolic in his postings. I take what they say with a big grain of salt. BTW, they were a volunteer organization to begin with. I think the guy that is on the investing board was paid some small amount and left angry because the owner is the one who ended up raking in the dough when it became successful. Back on topic, they shut the flares down by the 27th I think and so that means they figured out how to get that oil processed and moved elsewhere. That oil is NOT going to Abqaiq and it's all sour, heavy. They are basically a big Venezueala until they have that Abqaiq plant fixed. They also lost a good percentage of Khurais and what they are putting out there is not as good as what it was before they lost two stabilizer towers. They will not be able to meet their future delivery requirements and the market isn't going to want that much heavy sour oil. Let's see what the story is by December.
  22. 7 points
    Or maybe the entire situation stinks, and damage control for the forever-upcoming Aramco IPO ripoff was considered more important than facts. I have poked fun at the Aramco IPO for Quite some time, and it just seems to get more Alice & Wonderland absurd as time passes.
  23. 7 points
    I agree 100%. In fact, I think I mentioned that in another thread that got the axe recently, unrelated issues. I remember being in Beijing on a subway that had some state sponsored tv on it back around 2010. I don't understand chinese, but one of the short videos looped over and over was a cartoon about emissions. In the cartoon, factories are shown billowing dark clouds into the atmosphere. Then, the picture pans over to a nearby crop. The clouds descend on the crops, the crops grow rapidly and provide food for the populace. Everyone is happy. My point to that is their has to be balance. I agree that global warming and the argument against CO2 has been massively inflated beyond reason. However, there are plenty of other harmful things in exhaust that still have to be addressed for the sake of local populace and enviroment. Should we shut down industry? Absolutely not. Should we continue to scrub exhaust from coal fired plants and try to capture or reduce harmful emissions? I don't see any harm in that provided it's done logically and reasonably in a way that's not too prohibitive to development.
  24. 7 points
    Economic Growth 4.2 percent growth in the second quarter of 2018. For the first time in more than a decade, growth is projected to exceed 3 percent over the calendar year. Jobs 4 million new jobs have been created since the election, and more than 3.5 million since Trump took office. More Americans are employed now than ever before in our history. Jobless claims at lowest level in nearly five decades. The economy has achieved the longest positive job-growth streak on record. Job openings are at an all-time high and outnumber job seekers for the first time on record. Unemployment claims at 50 year low African-American, Hispanic, and Asian-American unemployment rates have all recently reached record lows. African-American unemployment hit a record low of 5.9 percent in May 2018. Hispanic unemployment at 4.5 percent. Asian-American unemployment at record low of 2 percent. Women’s unemployment recently at lowest rate in nearly 65 years. Female unemployment dropped to 3.6 percent in May 2018, the lowest since October 1953. Youth unemployment recently reached its lowest level in more than 50 years. July 2018’s youth unemployment rate of 9.2 percent was the lowest since July 1966. Veterans’ unemployment recently hit its lowest level in nearly two decades. July 2018’s veterans’ unemployment rate of 3.0 percent matched the lowest rate since May 2001. Unemployment rate for Americans without a high school diploma recently reached a record low. Rate for disabled Americans recently hit a record low. Blue-collar jobs recently grew at the fastest rate in more than three decades. Poll found that 85 percent of blue-collar workers believe their lives are headed “in the right direction.” 68 percent reported receiving a pay increase in the past year. Last year, job satisfaction among American workers hit its highest level since 2005. Nearly two-thirds of Americans rate now as a good time to find a quality job. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percent. Added more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since the election. Manufacturing employment is growing at its fastest pace in more than two decades. 100,000 new jobs supporting the production & transport of oil & natural gas. American Income Median household income rose to $61,372 in 2017, a post-recession high. Wages up in August by their fastest rate since June 2009. Paychecks rose by 3.3 percent between 2016 and 2017, the most in a decade. Council of Economic Advisers found that real wage compensation has grown by 1.4 percent over the past year. Some 3.9 million Americans off food stamps since the election. Median income for Hispanic-Americans rose by 3.7 percent and surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever in history. Home-ownership among Hispanics is at the highest rate in nearly a decade. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels ever recorded. American Optimism Small business optimism has hit historic highs. NFIB’s small business optimism index broke a 35 year-old record in August. SurveyMonkey/CNBC’s small business confidence survey for Q3 of 2018 matched its all-time high. Manufacturers are more confident than ever. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future, the highest ever. Consumer confidence is at an 18-year high. 12 percent of Americans rate the economy as the most significant problem facing our country, the lowest level on record. Confidence in the economy is near a two-decade high, with 51 percent rating the economy as good or excellent. American Business Investment is flooding back into the United States due to the tax cuts. Over $450 billion dollars has already poured back into the U.S., including more than $300 billion in the first quarter of 2018. Retail sales have surged. Commerce Department figures from August show that retail sales increased 0.5 percent in July 2018, an increase of 6.4 percent from July 2017. ISM’s index of manufacturing scored its highest reading in 14 years. Worker productivity is the highest it has been in more than three years. Steel and aluminum producers are re-opening. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have all notched record highs. Dow hit record highs 70 times in 2017 alone, the most ever recorded in one year. Deregulation Achieved massive deregulation at a rapid pace, completing 22 deregulatory actions to every one regulatory action during his first year in office. Signed legislation to roll back costly and harmful provisions of Dodd-Frank, providing relief to credit unions, and community and regional banks. Federal agencies achieved more than $8 billion in lifetime net regulatory cost savings. Rolled back Obama’s burdensome Waters of the U.S. rule. Used the Congressional Review Act to repeal regulations more times than in history. Tax Cuts Biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history by signing the Tax Cuts and Jobs act into law Provided more than $5.5 trillion in gross tax cuts, nearly 60 percent of which will go to families. Increased the exemption for the death tax to help save Family Farms & Small Business. Nearly doubled the standard deduction for individuals and families. Enabled vast majority of American families will be able to file their taxes on a single page by claiming the standard deduction. Doubled the child tax credit to help lessen the financial burden of raising a family. Lowered America’s corporate tax rate from the highest in the developed world to allow American businesses to compete and win. Small businesses can now deduct 20 percent of their business income. Cut dozens of special interest tax breaks and closed loopholes for the wealthy. 9 in 10 American workers are expected see an increase in their paychecks thanks to the tax cuts, according to the Treasury Department. More than 6 million of American workers have received wage increases, bonuses, and increased benefits thanks to tax cuts. Over 100 utility companies have lowered electric, gas, or water rates thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Ernst & Young found 89 percent of companies planned to increase worker compensation thanks to the Trump tax cuts. Established opportunity zones to spur investment in left behind communities. Worker Development Established a National Council for the American Worker to develop a national strategy for training and retraining America’s workers for high-demand industries. Employers have signed Trump’s “Pledge to America’s Workers,” committing to train or retrain more than 4.2 million workers and students. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers. Domestic Infrastructure Proposed infrastructure plan would utilize $200 billion in Federal funds to spur at least $1.5 trillion in infrastructure investment across the country. Executive order expediting environmental reviews and approvals for high priority infrastructure projects. Federal agencies have signed the One Federal Decision Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) streamlining the federal permitting process for infrastructure projects. Rural prosperity task force and signed an executive order to help expand broadband access in rural areas. Health Care Signed an executive order to help minimize the financial burden felt by American households Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments. Signed Right-to-Try legislation, expanding health care options for terminally ill patients. Enacted changes to the Medicare 340B program, saving seniors an estimated $320 million on drugs in 2018 alone. FDA set a new record for generic drug approvals in 2017, saving consumers nearly $9 billion. Released a blueprint to drive down drug prices for American patients, leading multiple major drug companies to announce they will freeze or reverse price increases. Expanded short-term, limited-duration health plans. Let more employers to form Association Health Plans, enabling more small businesses to join together and affordably provide health insurance to their employees. Cut Obamacare’s burdensome individual mandate penalty. Signed legislation repealing Obamacare’s Independent Payment Advisory Board, also known as the “death panels.” USDA invested more than $1 billion in rural health care in 2017, improving access to health care for 2.5 million people in rural communities across 41 states Proposed Title X rule to help ensure taxpayers do not fund the abortion industry in violation of the law. Reinstated and expanded the Mexico City Policy to keep foreign aid from supporting the global abortion industry. HHS formed a new division over protecting the rights of conscience and religious freedom. Overturned Obama administration’s midnight regulation prohibiting states from defunding certain abortion facilities. Signed executive order to help ensure that religious organizations are not forced to choose between violating their religious beliefs by complying with Obamacare’s contraceptive mandate or shutting their doors. Combating Opioids Chaired meeting the 73rd General Session of the United Nations discussing the worldwide drug problem with international leaders. Initiative to Stop Opioid Abuse and Reduce Drug Supply and Demand, introducing new measures to keep dangerous drugs out of our communities. $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic. DEA conducted a surge in April 2018 that arrested 28 medical professions and revoked 147 registrations for prescribing too many opioids. Brought the “Prescribed to Death” memorial to President’s Park near the White House, helping raise awareness about the human toll of the opioid crisis. Helped reduce high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent in 2017. Opioid Summit on the administration-wide efforts to combat the opioid crisis. Launched a national public awareness campaign about the dangers of opioid addiction. Created a Commission on Combating Drug Addiction and the Opioid Crisis which recommended a number of pathways to tackle the opioid crisis. Led two National Prescription Drug Take Back Days in 2017 and 2018, collecting a record number of expired and unneeded prescription drugs each time. $485 million targeted grants in FY 2017 to help areas hit hardest by the opioid crisis. Signed INTERDICT Act, strengthening efforts to detect and intercept synthetic opioids before they reach our communities. DOJ secured its first-ever indictments against Chinese fentanyl manufacturers. Joint Criminal Opioid Darknet Enforcement (J-CODE) team, aimed at disrupting online illicit opioid sales. Declared the opioid crisis a Nationwide Public Health Emergency in October 2017. Law and Order More U.S. Circuit Court judges confirmed in the first year in office than ever. Confirmed more than two dozen U. S. Circuit Court judges. Followed through on the promise to nominate judges to the Supreme Court who will adhere to the Constitution Nominated and confirmed Justice Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Signed an executive order directing the Attorney General to develop a strategy to more effectively prosecute people who commit crimes against law enforcement officers. Launched an evaluation of grant programs to make sure they prioritize the protection and safety of law enforcement officers. Established a task force to reduce crime and restore public safety in communities across Signed an executive order to focus more federal resources on dismantling transnational criminal organizations such as drug cartels. Signed an executive order to focus more federal resources on dismantling transnational criminal organizations such as drug cartels. Violent crime decreased in 2017 according to FBI statistics. $137 million in grants through the COPS Hiring Program to preserve jobs, increase community policing capacities, and support crime prevention efforts. Enhanced and updated the Project Safe Neighborhoods to help reduce violent crime. Signed legislation making it easier to target websites that enable sex trafficking and strengthened penalties for people who promote or facilitate prostitution. Created an interagency task force working around the clock to prosecute traffickers, protect victims, and prevent human trafficking. Conducted Operation Cross Country XI to combat human trafficking, rescuing 84 children and arresting 120 human traffickers. Encouraged federal prosecutors to use the death penalty when possible in the fight against the trafficking of deadly drugs. New rule effectively banning bump stock sales in the United States. Border Security and Immigration Secured $1.6 billion for border wall construction in the March 2018 omnibus bill. Construction of a 14-mile section of border wall began near San Diego. Worked to protect American communities from the threat posed by the vile MS-13 gang. ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations division arrested 796 MS-13 members and associates in FY 2017, an 83 percent increase from the prior year. Justice worked with partners in Central America to secure criminal charges against more than 4,000 MS-13 members. Border Patrol agents arrested 228 illegal aliens affiliated with MS-13 in FY 2017. Fighting to stop the scourge of illegal drugs at our border. ICE HSI seized more than 980,000 pounds of narcotics in FY 2017, including 2,370 pounds of fentanyl and 6,967 pounds of heroin. ICE HSI dedicated nearly 630,000 investigative hours towards halting the illegal import of fentanyl. ICE HSI made 11,691 narcotics-related arrests in FY 2017. Stop Opioid Abuse and Reduce Drug Supply and Demand introduced new measures to keep dangerous drugs out the United States. Signed the INTERDICT Act into law, enhancing efforts to detect and intercept synthetic opioids. DOJ secured its first-ever indictments against Chinese fentanyl manufacturers. DOJ launched their Joint Criminal Opioid Darknet Enforcement (J-CODE) team, aimed at disrupting online illicit opioid sales. Released an immigration framework that includes the resources required to secure our borders and close legal loopholes, and repeatedly called on Congress to fix our broken immigration laws. Authorized the deployment of the National Guard to help secure the border. Enhanced vetting of individuals entering the U.S. from countries that don’t meet security standards, helping to ensure individuals who pose a threat to our country are identified before they enter. These procedures were upheld in a June 2018 Supreme Court hearing. ICE removed over 226,000 illegal aliens from the United States in 2017. ICE rescued or identified over 500 human trafficking victims and over 900 child exploitation victims in 2017 alone. In 2017, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) arrested more than 127,000 aliens with criminal convictions or charges, responsible for Over 76,000 with dangerous drug offenses. More than 48,000 with assault offenses. More than 11,000 with weapons offenses. More than 5,000 with sexual assault offenses. More than 2,000 with kidnapping offenses. Over 1,800 with homicide offenses. Created the Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement (VOICE) Office in order to support the victims and families affected by illegal alien crime. More than doubled the number of counties participating in the 287(g) program, which allows jails to detain criminal aliens until they are transferred to ICE custody. Trade Negotiating and renegotiating better trade deals, achieving free, fair, and reciprocal trade for the United States. Agreed to work with the European Union towards zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsides. Deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe. Litigated multiple WTO disputes targeting unfair trade practices and upholding our right to enact fair trade laws. Finalized a revised trade agreement with South Korea, which includes provisions to increase American automobile exports. Negotiated an historic U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement to replace NAFTA. Agreement to begin trade negotiations for a U.S.-Japan trade agreement. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam. Established a Trade and Investment Working Group with the United Kingdom, laying the groundwork for post-Brexit trade. Enacted steel and aluminum tariffs to protect our vital steel and aluminum producers and strengthen our national security. Conducted 82 anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations in 2017 alone. Confronting China’s unfair trade practices after years of Washington looking the other way. 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods imported from China and later imposed an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Conducted an investigation into Chinese forced technology transfers, unfair licensing practices, and intellectual property theft. Imposed safeguard tariffs to protect domestic washing machines and solar products manufacturers hurt by China’s trade policies Withdrew from the job-killing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Secured access to new markets for America’s farmers. Recent deal with Mexico included new improvements enabling food and agriculture to trade more fairly. Recent agreement with the E.U. will reduce barriers and increase trade of American soybeans to Europe. Won a WTO dispute regarding Indonesia’s unfair restriction of U.S. agricultural exports. Defended American Tuna fisherman and packagers before the WTO Opened up Argentina to American pork experts for the first time in a quarter-century American beef exports have returned to china for the first time in more than a decade OK’d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation. Energy Presidential Memorandum to clear roadblocks to construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Presidential Memorandum declaring that the Dakota Access Pipeline serves the national interest and initiating the process to complete construction. Opened up the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to energy exploration. Coal exports up over 60 percent in 2017. Rolled back the “stream protection rule” to prevent it from harming America’s coal industry. Cancelled Obama’s anti-coal Clean Power Plan and proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Rule as a replacement. Withdrew from the job-killing Paris climate agreement, which would have cost the U.S. nearly $3 trillion and led to 6.5 million fewer industrial sector jobs by 2040. U.S. oil production has achieved its highest level in American history United States is now the largest crude oil producer in the world. U.S. has become a net natural gas exporter for the first time in six decades. Action to expedite the identification and extraction of critical minerals that are vital to the nation’s security and economic prosperity. Took action to reform National Ambient Air Quality Standards, benefitting American manufacturers. Rescinded Obama’s hydraulic fracturing rule, which was expected to cost the industry $32 million per year. Proposed an expansion of offshore drilling as part of an all-of-the above energy strategy Held a lease sale for offshore oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico in August 2018. Got EU to increase its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. Issued permits for the New Burgos Pipeline that will cross the U.S.-Mexico border. Foreign Policy Moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Withdrew from Iran deal and immediately began the process of re-imposing sanctions that had been lifted or waived. Treasury has issued sanctions targeting Iranian activities and entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force Since enacting sanctions, Iran’s crude exports have fallen off, the value of Iran’s currency has plummeted, and international companies have pulled out of the country. All nuclear-related sanctions will be back in full force by early November 2018. Historic summit with North Korean President Kim Jong-Un, bringing beginnings of peace and denuclearization to the Korean Peninsula. The two leaders have exchanged letters and high-level officials from both sides have met resulting in tremendous progress. North Korea has halted nuclear and missile tests. Negotiated the return of the remains of missing-in-action soldiers from the Korean War. Imposed strong sanctions on Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro and his inner circle. Executive order preventing those in the U.S. from carrying out certain transactions with the Venezuelan regime, including prohibiting the purchase of the regime’s debt. Responded to the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime. Rolled out sanctions targeting individuals and entities tied to Syria’s chemical weapons program. Directed strikes in April 2017 against a Syrian airfield used in a chemical weapons attack on innocent civilians. Joined allies in launching airstrikes in April 2018 against targets associated with Syria’s chemical weapons use. New Cuba policy that enhanced compliance with U.S. law and held the Cuban regime accountable for political oppression and human rights abuses. Treasury and State are working to channel economic activity away from the Cuban regime, particularly the military. Changed the rules of engagement, empowering commanders to take the fight to ISIS. ISIS has lost virtually all of its territory, more than half of which has been lost under Trump. ISIS’ self-proclaimed capital city, Raqqah, was liberated in October 2017. All Iraqi territory had been liberated from ISIS. More than a dozen American hostages have been freed from captivity all of the world. Action to combat Russia’s malign activities, including their efforts to undermine the sanctity of United States elections. Expelled dozens of Russian intelligence officers from the United States and ordered the closure of the Russian consulate in Seattle, WA. Banned the use of Kaspersky Labs software on government computers, due to the company’s ties to Russian intelligence. Imposed sanctions against five Russian entities and three individuals for enabling Russia’s military and intelligence units to increase Russia’s offensive cyber capabilities. Sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs, and 12 companies they own or control, who profit from Russia’s destabilizing activities. Sanctioned 100 targets in response to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and aggression in Eastern Ukraine. Enhanced support for Ukraine’s Armed Forces to help Ukraine better defend itself. Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup. Defense Executive order keeping the detention facilities at U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay open. $700 billion in military funding for FY 2018 and $716 billion for FY 2019. Largest military pay raise in nearly a decade. Ordered a Nuclear Posture Review to ensure America’s nuclear forces are up to date and serve as a credible deterrent. Released America’s first fully articulated cyber strategy in 15 years. New strategy on national biodefense, which better prepares the nation to defend against biological threats. Administration has announced that it will use whatever means necessary to protect American citizens and servicemen from unjust prosecution by the International Criminal Court. Released an America first National Security Strategy. Put in motion the launch of a Space Force as a new branch of the military and relaunched the National Space Council. Encouraged North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to increase defense spending to their agree-upon levels. In 2017 alone, there was an increase of more than 4.8 percent in defense spending amongst NATO allies. Every member state has increased defense spending. Eight NATO allies will reach the 2 percent benchmark by the end of 2018 and 15 allies are on trade to do so by 2024. NATO allies spent over $42 billion dollars more on defense since 2016. Executive order to help military spouses find employment as their families deploy domestically and abroad. Veterans affairs Signed the VA Accountability Act and expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care. Delivered more appeals decisions – 81,000 – to veterans in a single year than ever before. Strengthened protections for individuals who come forward and identify programs occurring within the VA. Signed legislation that provided $86.5 billion in funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the largest dollar amount in history for the VA. VA MISSION Act, enacting sweeping reform to the VA system that: Consolidated and strengthened VA community care programs. Funding for the Veterans Choice program. Expanded eligibility for the Family Caregivers Program. Gave veterans more access to walk-in care. Strengthened the VA’s ability to recruit and retain quality healthcare professionals. Enabled the VA to modernize its assets and infrastructure. Signed the VA Choice and Quality Employment Act in 2017, which authorized $2.1 billion in addition funds for the Veterans Choice Program. Worked to shift veterans’ electronic medical records to the same system used by the Department of Defense, a decades old priority. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life. Increased transparency and accountability at the VA by launching an online “Access and Quality Tool,” providing veterans with access to wait time and quality of care data. Signed legislation to modernize the claims and appeal process at the VA. Harry W. Colmery Veterans Educational Assistance Act, providing enhanced educational benefits to veterans, service members, and their family members. Lifted a 15-year limit on veterans’ access to their educational benefits. Created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far. Signed the Veterans Treatment Court Improvement Act, increasing the number of VA employees that can assist justice-involved veterans.
  25. 7 points
    Do you remember in the ‘old days’ that you were warned that if you kept jumping jobs that it would show up on your resume and that eventually people would refrain from hiring you? I believe that is still in effect today. I disagree with this one tho. The muscle companies are moving more and more to 3 month contracts that renew every 3 months. They aren't willing to promise any more then that. every time I bounce companies I have been getting better and better compensation. It's hard to get raises once you are locked in their contract routine (because it auto renews no rate change and they shove it in your face to sign. You can try to negotiate but they stonewall you until you sign or quit) sometimes you have to leave for an employer to notice what they lost when you leave. I always used to tidy the yard wherever I work. Keep the bins organized, empty oil trays and buckets out, collect the litter (other empoyees) I do It because I take pleasure knowing whenever I leave their business will look like a dump again very quickly.
  26. 7 points
    As a millennial with a job that I enjoy, without debt, aggressively investing for the future, keenly interested in economics and history, and who greatly values a free and capitalistic society (after all, everything else is crap), I find the constant complaining from previous generations about “accommodating” millenials to be as pitiful as the snowflake safe zone attitude that the youngest portion of my generation has adopted. As the economy has continued to integrate and we are verging on/already in a 4th industrial revolution, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that creative destruction is on an upswing. Unfortunately, that little, oft-conveniently-neglected element of a free market economy is leaving industries and specialized groups by the dumpster as new, previously unthoughtof industries rise up and create value for society, investors and employees. Going back a few sentences - can I go down a quick rabbit hole? Cool, thanks. Outside of Mutually Assured Destruction, global economic integration has been one of the most important elements in minimizing great power warfare... so that’s pretty cool. Maybe it’s worth not losing sight of that as we - correctly - challenge those economies trying to take advantage of said system. Ok... climbing back out of the hole now. Are societal norms and generational preferences major drivers of who wins and loses? Of course... in addition to an incredibly rapid development of a “tech” industry - and in particular a more “ethereal” software component to value creation that is hard for many to understand given the lack of physical production. (You know, valuing things other than what you can touch and feel is just so childish). Here’s the thing though - the makeup of the economy changes over time as society progresses, and I was taught by previous generations that it was part of what made capitalism awesome (and America badass). Now that it is hitting a few generations particularly hard, and these generations are having to adapt and change to new environments and expectations, it’s changed to “those damn kids on my lawn.” So I suppose, now that the big bad millenials are trying to carve out their preferences in this short period we have on this planet and find fulfilling jobs to support those preferences, it’s only perfectly logical that we should do everything we can to smear their decisions. Hell, we should probably start subsidizing these poor, critically important industries that they, unlike any previous generation ever (lol - is that acceptable?), are so unfairly destroying. I mean, to think that industries that have been raking in massive amounts of profits (in the case of oil, 100+ years) should have to spend some of that money and pay some smart people to capitalize on these major changes is just so unfair (wait - that sounds like something a millenial would say...). Anyway, there’s so many things about the generational blame game that I find distatesful, I’ve sort of lost track of where I was going. (Goes and eats an avocado toast - the devils food) Oh yes, now I remember. Pull up your pants and put this vaunted work ethic to use and CAPITALIZE on the changes... be better than your competitors, make more profits and provide value to society (of which millennials are a part of). A business that doesn’t change, dies. Probably it used to be that older generations understood that- they’re the ones that taught it to me after all. Alternatively, b***h and moan, and perhaps we can set you up a competing safe space (adult day care) where the millenials cant keep destroying everything good in the world that your all knowing generation is so confident must survive or global catastrophe will ensue (sounds like another hot evil millenial topic...). - sincerely, a destroyer of industries
  27. 7 points
    The official narrative makes no sense whatsoever. Worth reading and considering in the mad rush to war: Questions, Not Answers Surround U.S. Push to War with Iran =============================== These memes (inspired by Zhong's recent comments here) were originally meant as a joke, but it seems absurdly obvious now that many U.S. government war hawks are unswervingly dedicated to start a war / bombing campaign against Iran no matter what. In U.S. war hawk NPC unthinking robotic inflexibility, Iran is at fault, no matter what evidence is found. Houthis claim responsibility? Nope, it was Iran. Damn any evidence or impartial, critical thinking, it was Iran, and drop those bombs now. NPC. Robotic thinking. Bomb now, think later (or never). Damn near the same scenario when U.S. war hawks claimed proof of Saddam's Weapons of Mass Destruction in mobile trucks, which were later proven to be a fabricated lie to justify bombing Iraq. Total fustercluck of warmonger lies. Read the article in the link above. Trump seems to be the adult in the room, saying to his war-obsessed advisors to hold the fuck up a minute guys, let's get some actual proof before we do anything. Here's a thought, how about U.S. pull out 90% of troops from the Middle East and let Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran bomb each other to their hearts content. Which they clearly want to do. ● Why the hell does the U.S. need to respond? ● Saudi Arabia should be 100% responsible for finding evidence and taking appropriate military action for the military strike against Saudi Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia, and NOT THE U.S. This is going to end badly. Very badly. F*ucking warmongers lust after war and bombing, and peace will not be allowed to break out, thus sayeth our warlord masters in the Middle East. / frustrated
  28. 6 points
    Trump announces that the U.S. is pulling out of unwinnable military fiascos overseas, and everyone loses their minds. Heck, I would be very happy if the U.S. pulled out 90% of American military from the Middle East and just let the locals wage unending war amongst themselves like they have for centuries. Religious wars, ethnic wars, tribal wars, all unwinnable and nonsensical. If the entire Middle East region is so damn dead set on killing each other off over petty rivalries over religion and tribal grievances that will never, ever, be settled, why should the U.S. be involved? Hatfields vs McCoys Bloods vs Crips Shia vs Sunni Arab vs Persian ^ all examples of opposing groups that will never be rational about the opposite side, and only want to destroy the other side for reasons that are not open to debate or reason, only toward destruction. Only blind, unceasing hatred toward their enemy. Get the U.S. out of this morass. Besides, according to Climate Scientists, population reduction is supposed to be a solution for reducing man made global warming. (That's partly tongue in cheek.) Erdogan's lust to rebuild an Islamic Ottoman Empire with himself as the Supreme Ruler is something that the U.S. military should not be involved in. Here is a bit of an explainer; excerpt below, more details and background in the link: President Trump Announces Turkish Unilateral Invasion of Northern Syria Things are about to get very interesting and very uncomfortable for NATO. President Trump has announced that Turkey is about to launch a unilateral invasion into Northern Syria… There is going to be a scramble amid many geopolitical interests. ... Turkey is a member of NATO. Turkey has previously used its NATO membership as a shield to stop threats from Russia. Remember Turkey shooting down a Russian fighter jet? Turkish President Recep Erdogan is a manipulative bad actor; a hostile dictator; and sympathetic to extremes within political Islam. Erdogan has openly showcased his friendship with the Muslim Brotherhood. Europe draws exclusive benefits from NATO defenses. Europe would not take back the ISIS fighters captured in Syria that were EU nationals. The ISIS prisoners we turn over to Turkey will be regarded less as prisoners, and more likely considered heroes by Erdogan’s govt. Remember, Erdogan gave the Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership safe harbor in Turkey after they were kicked out of Qatar. Unfortunately, it is likely Erdogan will attack the Kurdish forces in Northern Syria. The Kurds are U.S. allies; and this will be the point of contention for the neocons. Turkey will invade NE Syria, but -depending on current strength- Turkey runs the risk of a counter-attack by the Syrian Army, and potentially Russia. With the European nations, NATO allies, refusing to take their ISIS fighters back as prisoners, President Trump has made a deal with Erdogan to take them. In the announcement President Trump has made it clear that any action by Turkey into Syria is unilateral; there will be no assistance by the U.S. on any aspect; including if Turkey is counter-attacked by Russia/Syria or organized Kurdish forces. Essentially, Trump is leaving Erdogan naked to a myriad of his enemies if Erdogan does cross the border. The U.S. part of the NATO shield is removed. The Europeans will likely not evoke the NATO defense treaty without the U.S. Heck, the EU is essentially spineless without the power of the U.S. military. President Trump is calling out the duplicity of the entire situation by calling all of their bluffs. President Trump is calling-out: NATO, weak EU ‘allies’ and Turkey. In essence, this White House announcement is a major Gordian knot being cut. It is unlikely President Erdogan expected to have this framework made so public. This rather loud declaration by President Trump seems strategic in that it could make duplicitous Erdogan think twice about the actual military invasion itself. However, Erdogan is also a rabid ideologue and he wants to recreate the Ottoman empire… so he’ll likely go ahead regardless of cost. Down the road…. instead of those ISIS prisoners being held in European jails; and considering the sympathetic Turkish handlers; those ISIS fighters will eventually make their way home without anyone knowing. However, the EU has created that issue by refusing to step-up and take ownership. ...
  29. 6 points
    If you knew the first thing about refining, you'd understand the US Does need Canadian heavy oil.
  30. 6 points
    The protesters in Hong Cong were passive by the millions for a long time and it seems by far the majority still are. The government “as governments typically do” tried to repress the protesters by threats and violence which was and is a huge mistake. You cannot repress the rights of the millions without expecting growing violence in return. It’s gonna get ugly if China continues its present course.
  31. 6 points
    Here is a refreshing scientific opinion...https://clashdaily.com/2019/07/scientists-call-for-an-end-to-climate-change-alarmism/
  32. 6 points
    So, you believe that India under British rule and Hong Kong under Chinese rule are equivalent situations? Do you honestly believe that Communist China would ever respect passive resistance? I believe that passive resistance in HK, at the level and duration which occurred in India, would have still resulted in a violent response by the authorities. You do remember Tianamen Square don’t you?
  33. 6 points
    American companies could re-channel the wasted revenue pumped into their bloated HR and HSE departments back into the engineering departments and the actual manufacturing personnel and realize their true potential.
  34. 6 points
    For goodness sake Auson! Any weapons system is only as good as the people operating it! Even if the Saudis had deployed US systems...the operators were Saudis!!! Are you trying to make the point that US weapon systems are inferior to those fielded by China and Russia? If so....JUST SAY IT!
  35. 6 points
    First, shooting down an unarmed, non-stealthy, slow moving drone which was incapable of evading proves that the Iranian air defense radar system and indigenous air defense missile systems...can hit unarmed, non-stealthy, slow moving drones. A far cry from downing attack aircraft. But on to your post. There is absolutely no need for all out war against Iran, and Trump is apparently not considering it. The Iranian theocracy is it’s own worst enemy. Even they realize that if tactical strikes weakened their command and control structure AND that the people were ‘somehow’ getting weapons and training, either in-country or abroad, that a coup becomes a very real possibility. Absolutely no need for foreign boots on the ground. As for the Belts and Road Initiative... history has shown us again and again that you can’t buy friends, especially those willing to die for your gold.
  36. 6 points
    If a woman said ''just grab them by the cock'' it would be fine. Defended even. And hilarious. I think people's point is not 'they did it too, so it's ok' - it's more 'why is the Democratic criminal element not all over the news like Trump's apparent crimes are'. Why is Obama doing it fine, but Trump does it and it gets crazy impeachment talk? Your press is just hilarious.
  37. 6 points
    Yeah, that video shows that Greta is simply a scripted puppet. Take away the script and she is unable to answer simple, basic questions. Greta's parents suck. Greta's scripted speech is just deja vu all over again. Compare Greta's rant to the UN with this teenager's speech to the UN in 1992. Same sh*t, different face. Teenage puppet scolding adults at UN about environment catastrophe. Nothing new under the sun
  38. 6 points
    Comment copied & pasted in full. Biden, Kerry, Heinz, and Archer Timeline I’ve spent the past few nights in never ending rabbit holes on US, China, and Ukraine relations over the past 10 years.. I’ve took what I believe is the most critical and important information and structured this timeline, from 2009 until Biden’s decision to run for president. 2009 Hunter Biden (son of Vice President Joe Biden) and Chris Heinz (stepson of Secretary of State John Kerry) create Rosemont Capital, an international investment firm with the help of Devon Archer, a businessman and close friend of Heinz. Rosemont would eventually expand and adding two branches, Rosemont Realty and Rosemont Seneca Partners. source 2013 After months of tough talks with China. Biden & Kerry back down on the South China Sea Dispute. At which point China immediately ramps up activity on the disputed territories mostly with military bases being constructed. 12 days later the bank of China creates an investment fund with Rosemont Seneca, a branch of Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz’s Rosemont Capital. The fund name was Bohai Harvest Rosemont more commonly known as BHR. China also allows Rosemont to set up shop in the shanghai zone..which means Rosemont would actually be allowed to take chinese goverment money and actually invest it outside of China..even in the US. Making rosemont the only western company in world with that power. Within 2 weeks the BHR fund secured $1.5 billion dollars. source 2014 John Kerry visits China, a climate accord is reached between China and the US and it’s headline news around the world. source What doesn’t make headline news is a state-backed chinese company under the name of Gemini purchases 75% of Rosemont’s Realty branch for $75 million...a few months later, Gemini invest $34 million into a Rosemont fund. source Hunter Biden is discharged from the US navy for cocaine usage.. source White House records show Joe Biden holds a meeting in white house with Devon Archer. source Devon Archer opens a foreign limited liability company under the name Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC, using a Ft. Lauderdale Adress. source 5 days later, Biden travels to meet with Ukrainian officials in Kiev and offers Ukraine $1 billion to help aid Ukraine’s natural gas industry and economy. source Less than a week later Devon Archer joins the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian natural gas company. source 2 weeks later Hunter Biden joins Archer as a board member of Burisma, coincidentally this is around the same time Senator Edward Markey along with 3 other senators write Obama a letter asking for increased aid in Ukraine around the same time. "We should leverage the full resources and expertise of the U.S. government to assist Ukraine in improving its energy efficiency, increasing its domestic production, and reforming its energy markets," wrote Markey, who has also proposed legislation with about $40 million in additional aide for Ukranian energy development. source Neither Hunter nor Devon had any experience in the energy sector field, records obtained show Hunter Biden was being paid north of $50,0000 a month by Burisma. source Meanwhile back in China, a company named AVIC (aviation industry corporation of china) has been secretly stealing US technologies related to a F-35 stealth fighter jets..AVIC also teams up with a fund known as BHR, the same BHR fund that is owned by Biden and Kerry’s sons and had secured $1.5 billion from the chinese goverment. source Burisma makes a $3.4 million dollar payment to Rosemont Seneca Bohaii LLC. source 2015 AVIC buys 51% of a technology known as henniges, Biden and Kerry’s BHR fund purchases the remaining 49%. source Henniges was an anti-vibration technology considered a dual use because it’s used in on military vehicles..like an F-35. This technology was on the restricted commerce list so it would be require the approval from the committee of foreign investments of the united states for it to be released..the person in responsible for that decision? John Kerry, the secretary of state, and the stepfather of chris heinz who’s BHR fund bought 49%. His state department approved the deal the same year. source BHR then teams up with a Beijing company this time to buy 100% of a rare earth material called molybdenum. 4 years earlier, the US had filed a complaint to the world trade organization charging Beijing with attempting to control the worlds rare-earth minerals, the WTO ruled in the US’s favor. source Back in Ukraine, Burisma makes another $3.4 million payment to Rosemont Seneca Bohaii, LLC..sparking a potential corruption probe into the natural gas company, which 2 years earlier had placed Hunter Biden and Devon Archer as head board members after Joe Biden used $1 Billion of US money to help boost Ukraines gas and economic industries. source 2016 a high profile Ukrainian prosecutor by the name of Shokin launches a relentless corruption probe into Burisma..and almost instantly started feeling pressure receiving pressure from the ukranian president to not pursue any further in the investigation of Burisma. source "On several occasions President Poroshenko asked me to have a look at the case against Burisma and consider the possibility of winding down the investigative actions in respect of this company but I refused to close this investigation," Shokin would later claim in reports recently obtained by the hill. So despite Shokin’s best efforts and unwillingness to pursue justice, as he got closer to bringing hunter biden in for questioning regarding $3.4 million, so did the pressure from Ukranian officials..which were in constant contact with US vice president Joe Biden. source A withdrawal is made from Rosemont Seneca Bohaii’s account on March 7th and it’s the last activity ever recorded. source Days later, Biden threatens Ukraine to end the investigation or he would cancel $1 billion in US loan guarantees. a video has since surfaced in 2018 of him bragging about the blackmailing of Ukraine with US Taxpayer money to have Shokin terminated. source "I said, 'You're not getting the billion.' I'm going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: 'I'm leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you're not getting the money,'" Biden recalled telling Poroshenko. But Biden Actually flew Poroshenko to Washington for a ‘working lunch..’ source and the investigation into Burisma ended. 2017 June, Devon Archer along with two other men are arrested for conspiracy to commit securities fraud that totaled more than $60 million. source 2018 November, a jury finds Devon Archer along with the two other men guilty of conspiracy to commit security fraud. But U.S. District Judge Ronnie Abrams overturned the jury’s decision on Devon Archer, ruling.. “the evidence at the trial earlier this year had not shown that the man, Devon Archer, knew that the bond issue was fraudulent, or that he received any personal benefit from it.”and said she was "left with an unwavering concern that Archer is innocent of the crimes charged." She upheld the convictions of the other two men who were tried and convicted alongside Archer. source 2019 April 20th, Hunter Biden leaves Burisma. source April 25th Joe Biden announces his candidacy for president of the United States. source
  39. 6 points
    That’s fairly damning of both Biden and the Obama administration. I wonder if the Democrats have realized the can of worms they have opened?
  40. 6 points
    https://twitter.com/TomFitton/status/1177359509767016448?s=20 ============================== READ AND UNDERSTAND THESE BITS:
  41. 6 points
    It is well within the President’s remit to speak to another head of state concerning the actions of a politician bribing the judiciary of another country. I doubt, at this time, that Lu or anyone else can prove that Trump suggested or asked the Ukraine to investigate Biden or his son. That will come out in the transcript of the telephone call. Obstructionism is not constructive. Did they do anything materially to better the lives of their constituents in the past 3 years OR have they spent their time simply obstructing Trump?
  42. 6 points
    I have read through this thread with great interest. Like a lot of you, I make my living from oil and gas. Since I have been reading the comments on this site, I have learned a lot, much of it from wildly divergent opinions. This topic is different: almost all the heads are nodding the same direction, up and down. And that worries me. Saying that there is a 1% increase in global demand for hydrocarbons each year has been historically correct for a very long time. Assuming that while vehicular use of fossil fuels will diminish but applying roughly that same amount as feedstock at the petrochemical plants is quite logical. The ease with which the lot of us can dismiss giant storage batteries takes merely a shrug. But all of these head-nodding comments assume that change is occurring in some sort of linear progression, pretty much the way history has taught us. Maybe I'm the only one paranoid here. The large number of international bankers that signed the oxymoronic contract entitled "Bankers for Responsible Investment" or some such rot, coming on the heels of the little Swedish girl making the rounds for a Nobel Peach Prize and all the new state mandates that are being pushed, really bothers me. Those bankers agreed, loosely, to sequester $47 TRILLION away from oil and gas people. Basically, their intention is to starve them out. This fits right into the progressive playbook as recited, shrilly and angrily, by Elizabeth Warren and another child named AOC. "A child shall lead them" has suddenly become a much-touted Bible verse. I am first and foremost a scientist. Scientific happenings have a way of looking linear for a long while, then suddenly showing up on a Tuesday acting like a logarithm: imagine bacteria replicating on a petri dish. I am becoming concerned that we've reaching an inflection point in society . . . especially when profit-driven, hard-hearted, mean-spirited bankers become cowed into following the mandates of junk science as interpreted by a thirteen-year-old girl who is smart but has few life experiences in smash-mouth reality. My nightmare scenario? 1) The Saudis lied about their facility at Abqaiq; it's going to take several months to get up to speed; they have 130M barrels of oil stored, which will probably allow them to bluff their way through November. 2) During that uninterrupted period of pretense, complacency and fear of over-supply and a price crash will cause roughly 100 rigs to be laid down in the US, maybe 10 in Canada. Because of DUC's, oil production from tight oil will remain flat or even move up a bit. 3) Exploration was near zero for several years, until Guyama and Vaca Meurto--it's now catch-up time but in a half-hearted way. 4) More and better batteries are going to be manufactured, including storage units like the one in the Permian--more assurance to Millenial masses that the transfer from fossil fuel to renewables is moving smoothly. 5) Then the hidden truths of above points 1, 2, 3 hit simultaneously. Suddenly, no matter how much the progressives and Elon Musk want us to go all renewable, all the time, we splat upon a substantial supply-demand imbalance. Panic ensues. Oil flies to $100 and beyond. Civil unrest becomes a reality; after all, it's getting cold outside and all at once global warming seems a forgotten worry. Just like that we hit another boom phase of the endless boom-bust cycles in oil and gas. Coal is going to make a temporary, emergency comeback. Natural gas will (probably) be sufficient to prevent people from freezing. All the renewables people--especially the EV folks--will say, see, we told you that fossil fuels are unreliable and dangerous. Those idiotic bankers will see that withholding $47 TRILLION at their Global Warming Conference wasn't such a great idea. They try to reverse thrust. The Saudis are so happy they're singing Christmas songs (no slur intended, Tom and Jan, just humor). And then, finally having broken the five-year drought in oil and gas prices, we'll all--Saudis, US, Canada, Big Oil (even Mr. Dudley of BP, who has been bad-mouthing his own industry in order to appear PC)--engage in renewed attack mode, which will lead us from the politically and socially engineered boom to another bust. This is what is in my mind. Since 1950 I have lived through these busts and booms regarding our own minerals. I've sold transmission rights for wind farms. mused at increased flaring, watched the old rigs methodically built and the new ones moved on tracks to the next spot on the drilling pad. I've seen horses get bogged down in sludge pits, desperate men in Stetsons throwing ropes over their heads to pull them out. I've watched this industry for a long time, shaken my head at the booms and busts, marveled at men like T. Boone Pickens and Aubrey McClendon and Mark Papas and Tom Ward. But never have I seen a coalition of international bankers say they were going to turn off the spigot because it was "morally irresponsible" to lend to oil and gas. No, gentlemen, I am not a doomsday theorist, just a realist. We're not on the long, sleepy curve of history here, not anymore. We're in a place with zero interest rates, bankers no longer making 5% on loans and 10% on junk bonds but rather depending on trades and hedges that used to be banned under the Glass-Steagall Act. Hard times are coming, not because they had to because of the natural flow of money but because of central bankers becoming alphabet soup engineers, regular bankers masquerading as choir boys. This is my take. I wholeheartedly admit to having become paranoid in my dotage. My head is no longer moving just up and down, but sideways, then up and down, sideways again. We are in uncharted territory. I no more believe in man-made global warming than in Santa Claus and the check is in the mail, but I'm not thirteen years old and cute, speaking in a sure, contralto voice before vast bodies of fathers and mothers who wish their own children were so incisive. I've taken too long to say this and I apologize, but this is my strong scenario. Worse of all, I'm pretty sure it's going to play out according to the paranoid tune that's playing inside my bone-head.
  43. 6 points
    Sadly, I agree with pretty much all of you. That being said, I qualify as a millennial. I was born in 1984. You all shake your fist in dismay, I look at post like @Douglas Buckland 's and see opportunity. I hope there are some other millenials out there reading this, but if you put in the work, don't bitch about everything, show up on time, and just generally try to be considerate of your employer and do everything you can to help their business flourish.....you'll get promoted very quickly. Honestly, it has never been easier to stand out. That initial foot in the door is the hardest part because, rightfully, older generations are hesitant to hire millenials. I mean, to our strengths we know how to operate computers and other technology pretty well. For example, look how I highlite and reference just a piece of a post..... I'm just messing with you @Douglas Buckland, I completely agree with you. I also think, as Ward pointed out, that parents are the ones that acquiesced to all of this in the first place. What's worse, millenials are having kids now....likely the ones that @Jan van Eck is referring to at that demon academy. Still, I would have to agree with Ward's kids and say being lumped into millenials drives me nuts. I do my very best to be the opposite of what @Douglas Buckland was describing.
  44. 6 points
    I am from Poland and you know we do not have any significant problems with immigrants. We have 0 (zero, null) economic immigrants that do not want to work are currently in Poland. ( I know that some other, rich countries of EU like Germany, Austria or Greece accept millions of economic immigrants, and they call them "refugees". We cannot interfere in internal affairs of these countries but also do not let them to interfere in ours). On the other hand over 1.5 to 2 million hard working people mainly from Ukraine (but also from other East and South European and Central Asia countries) are living and working legally in Poland. Each year more and more of them bring their famillies, get green cards, children are attending Polish schools etc. They substitute for millions of Poles that emigrated to UK, The Netherlands, Germany and other countries of "old EU". The magic is we do not give social security handouts to healthy people of working age, we are too poor. So coming back to the main topic EU is the fantastic project with some problems to solve.
  45. 6 points
    First chart is a single well that holds a specific lease that we have that was refracked in 2017. While this well doesn't look like a barn burner I picked it because it was refracked within the last couple years. It is important to note that this one specific well and is a short lateral and still has produced 329,737 barrels of oil and 806,771 mcf of gas/ngl during this time frame. The second graph is 4 wells drilled, fracked and placed into service as one package. This lease and I assume that meant all 4 wells were refracked back in 2015-16 time frame. This lease is approximately 1.5-2 miles from the well of the first lease and would be considered short lateral leases. The second lease as of July 2019 has produced 1,735,670 barrels of oil and 4,010,245 mcf. All this information is available via the Texas Railroad Commission web site. I can get a bit more granular by logging into a service provided by a third party but due to the nature of the world we live in today prefer to not provide any more information than this. This information only looks at data from 2 leases in the Eagle Ford play and definitely not enough information to define the entire play but does support the fast decline rate of the IP as well as the fast decline of the refrak. While there is definitely a fast decline rate on these wells a return of 1,735,670 barrels of oil and 4,010,245 mcf and still producing approx 10k barrels a month after 7 years seams like a pretty good money maker to me! Now if I wanted to be negative I could dig around on the RRC site and find a few examples that would show leases with huge losses. On the other hand I can go a little further North East of the wells represented in these 2 graphs and the numbers will blow your mind. I just picked a couple wells no one appears to talk about. Everyone wants to talk about the monster wells or the complete dogs. When looking at these 2 graphs it is important to understand that the wells in these graphs are some of the first wells drilled in this area and the completion process that was used on these wells and what is used today is completely different. These 2 graphs represent 2 individual leases a couple miles apart. The first lease (graph) has one well and the second lease (graph) has 4 wells. The major that holds these leases have notified us that they plan on having a minimum of 8 wells and a possibility of 12 wells on each of our leases for the Eagle Ford play. The are currently testing and have had very encouraging results in the Austin Chalk play and will probably be drilling wells for these as well. If the major drills 12 wells per lease and WAG of 4 (maybe more) Austin Chalk then there are many, many years of drilling left in South Texas. Just my uneducated royalty owners view of the oil patch in South Texas.
  46. 6 points
    I was in the Navy as an OS (I operated radars) from 2003-2008. You are 100% correct. If there were drones anywhere over waters occupied by the U.S. Navy, we would have seen them. I have no doubt an alternate land route was taken if the U.S. didnt see them in the Persian gulf. Also, see C-RAMs for why I also find this suspicious.
  47. 6 points
    I find the lack of information and 'fact' coming out of this situation very suspicious. As Doug has stated in a few threads now, we actually know nothing concrete at all other than this facility was attacked. Anything I say would be pure opinion, and even when the 'facts' are released, well, let's see. If you want my opinion, put simply, I find the lack of anything concrete, after 4 days, very odd. That said, people clearly know things and are not willing to release it yet. Fine. I'm not going to bother commenting on the rumour mill churning away in MSM. Soon we will know I guess. Whose version we 'know' or are fed is another matter. It's gone from Yemen to Iran to drone to missile to production screwed to production fine to IPOs to satellite images to elections to Russia to Bolton to Pompeo to the fucking Tooth Fairy. It's 2019. People clearly know everything already. Who are we kidding? In answer to your question, there literally is no 'story'. And even when we do get it, it'll be surrounded in hypotheticals, conspiracies, truth, bullshit and rumour. Haha just ignore me, I just want concrete news for selfish trading purposes. I'm the worst, but I'm honest.
  48. 6 points
    Saudi got caught with pants down. The precision with which the attack took place is not possible from that distance. Plus the dramatic manufactured billowing smoke plume in the desert is another clue that Saudis got caught. Did you notice over 8 tanks that perform separation of the hydroxide sulfur from the oil were hit exactly in the same spot on each one. It was small entry hole that did not destroy the tanks and can be easily repaired. Then compare that to the towering black smoke rising 1000 meters into sky for effect only. Suspicious ? Now Saudis changed their tune and did a complete reversal. U.S. will not out Saudis. Trump doesn't want to embarrass MBS. So what is next. I predict you will hear latter today something like. " The origin of the missiles/drones are somewhere near the Iraq and Iran border. We don't know if it was sanctioned by Iran leaders, rogue Iranian Republican guard or sympathetic militia in Iraq. Without definitive origin or specific culprit we can not retaliate at this time. Come back tomorrow and let's see if my predictions come to be. They might produce some drone or missile fragment to give credence to their story. Saudis save face, Trump saves face and nobody gets bombed. "
  49. 6 points
    In the second photo, I find it interesting that the impacts on all four tanks seem to be on an identical azimuth and height on the tanks. I am no drone expert, but this seems to be exceptional accuracy/targetting if you are assuming a pre-programmed flight path based on GPS. If it was remotely piloted, perhaps. I am having a hard time accepting the ‘programmed drone’ theory.
  50. 6 points
    The Yemenis or their descendants , primarily are in the South Western part of the KSA, Asir region, Abha, Najran, Gizan but they were fairly spread to many other parts of KSA, and were later mostly displaced by Egyptians because of their higher education levels , who went on to take teaching, professorial positions, drs, engineers etc (however some of their degrees could be called into question LOL). However , in the 80s and 90s they were also a major labor force that were small bizz (shops, gas stations, cafes) operators. In those days, you coldnt throw a 50 halala coin without hitting a Yemeni. It was that they mostly owned and or operated all your corner stores, gas stations, little cafes and food joints. I remember going in the souks and the "farmers markets" in the Southern region and see the folks walking around with their holsters and rifles and even AKs and their Khanjars.