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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/02/2019 in Posts

  1. 9 points
    Way back when I was at University where I was a math major, my class used a classroom shared with some 500+ level economics group. We shared that room because even by the 250 level subject I was in at the time there were few students but we needed a Lot of chalkboard, and so did the Masters level economics students. One day we went to the classroom to see the prior occupants had filled every chalkboard with lots of maths attempting to prove something about supply and demand. The details are too far in the past for me to remember specifics. Our professor was getting ready to erase the boards when he said, "Hold on, let's see what they were doing here". We then proceeded to examine their logic and find the progression right up to the point where their prof clearly just gave up. The math at our level was relatively trivial and we saw several mistakes and wrong turns in the process. Our teacher said, "I'm no economist, but it seems like he was trying to get 'here' but didn't know how to", while pointing at a graph that wasn't really supported by the equations. Naturally he "solved" the problem with a little note in a corner of a chalkboard, saying something like, "cheers from the advanced calculus and numerical analysis class 251" or whatever we were called then. I found the whole exercise far more stimulating than our class that followed, because for a change I got to see math applied and not just math for maths sake. Next semester I found that prof and asked if there was a class I could take from him. He recommended a 499 level class and I was quite surprised to find I was the only one in it. I later learned he was just using me as an unpaid graduate assistant, which wasn't too bad since I was still a Freshman. I was in 200 level classes from all the Advanced Placement courses I'd taken in high school. He gave me all these special assignments, which mostly involved me doing the math be wasn't comfortable with and writing computer code to tie everything together. Again and again he brought me things to "prove" a contention he'd already decided on, rather than following the data where it led. Nowadays I'd call that "climate science", but I digress. He told me he could guarantee me a PhD in economics in record time if I'd just change my major. By then I'd lost interest because I could tell his fundamental viewpoint and that of the rest of economics was fundamentally flawed. They were looking at everything wrong. Money = Debt and nothing else. "Money" is created into existence only when a bank loans it out, their ability to "create" the money only limited by their "assets". Initial assets are created by the Central Bank when it "purchases" debt from the sovereign government and "creates" notes. This video gives a concise picture of how it works. There are others but this one is simplest. Given that what everyone calls money (but which I call currency to keep things straight) is really just debt piled on debt, the next question is, "How does this apply to our reality?" If you start to visualize "the moneylenders" as this cabal of unscrupulous folk bound and determined to separate everyone from their hard earned possessions and commodities, you won't be far off the mark. Blaming it on "Jews" is simplistic and wrong but there are certainly some who claim to be from that tribe involved. If you just think about very smart people with little morality that's closer. If you believe the folks who are the public face of the Fed are actually in charge you've missed the boat. Elsewhere I posted The credit theory of money and I mistakenly attributed the publish date in 1914, when it was really May 1913. This date is important because the Federal Reserve was created 7 months later by some sketchy means while most of Congress was on Christmas vacation. I won't get into that here but can document it if you're interested. Why economics gets everything wrong is because, in my opinion, they aren't good at math and oversimplified the equations. For simplicity we say Supply and Demand and that's part of it, but the chasing of tails occurs with "elasticity" and other fixes to try and explain away what prices did contrary to the theory. It's better to think of everything as a lossy transmission line (current=currency) and the losses are due to interest (it's all debt remember) and inefficiency. The "work" getting done, i.e. economic activity corresponds to the usual machines consuming "watts" at the end of those power lines. Electrical engineers easily stay on top of all the inputs and outputs in their utility systems including real time trading with other utilities to soak up or provide additional power as needed. Not a perfect mental model but closer to reality than what economists currently spout. Finally, I've mentioned Ray Dalio here before, and I strongly recommend giving him a listen or read. Also simple but clearly done. Cheers @Marcin, @Papillon, @Tom Kirkman, @DayTrader. Hopefully we can have an intelligent discussion here about these things and I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.
  2. 8 points
    A very nice argument Papillon, but you make some false assumptions. 1. I think that America is somewhat flawless and has great policies. In fact I dislike the attempts by big government elements to restrict many of the rights of Americans. The rights to bear arms protect all the other rights in our constitution. This right is, in fact, being widely infringed upon. The right to life is restricted by abortion.. The right to privacy is not specified discretely in our constitution but the lack of privacy is something that must be inferred and dealt with fairly. Our government (and many govt. levels} is too large and the rules are overwhelming. Our legal system does not treat the wealthy and famous as harshly as the ordinary person. Our judicial system is being abused by rogue judges who make unconstitutional rulings which take a long time to fully be resolved. This also takes a lot of money. The ordinary citizen must turn to private organizations to get free legal help for justice. 2. It is a false statement to say that Americans are only slightly freer than Chinese. I wonder what percentage of Americans would want to live in China and vice versa. Feel free to speculate. 3. What nation provides more leadership to the world, or has to this point of recent history? I am not predicting the future, just stating facts. I am also not speaking of all history. 4. You compare privacy in America to that in China as if it were close. I really don't think it is close, but admit it is getting closer. Our government is just as interested in knowing everything we are doing as the Chinese government. The difference is that our domestic surveillance system doesn't compare. China has 91 million card carrying members of their Communist Party. They are all spies or willing to be spies at a moments notice. More importantly our government is restrained by our American Constitution and Bill of Rights which are carefully guarded by all wise citizens and honest judges. 5. I think that every person has a right to be proud of whatever nation they are a citizen of or any other nation they choose to be proud of. That does not mean that some do not have more to boas about however. I admire many things about China and its history. Its government is not one of them primarily because it is not democratic and has an Emperor for Life. 6. Regarding Hong Kong. I think that it is sad that its residents are placed in a position where they feel the need to revolt against the overwhelming power of China which lies on its doorstep and is a legal claimant of its land. I feel very sad for them. They are brave people as I think most Chinese are. I see no good end for the people of Hong Kong. I think that China will develop Schenzen and move any crucial systems there as it pacifies Hong Kong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen America would be foolish to interfere directly in Hong Kong. All we can do is support them indirectly, ideologically, and with our prayers. 7. About who rules the world. What that means is globalism versus free nations and free people. You cannot have national freedoms with an overarching global government. China wants a global government that will accedes to all its desires and values. Many in the Western World want the same thing. I am diametrically opposed to that. President Trump is also. Emperor Xi is a big fan of the United Nations and Globalism as long as it suits his needs. My Globalism Topic https://docs.google.com/document/d/1k8kNhtZJLuN66TpDuo67WBV1U2JhhZIvAefxeMNK0ls/edit 8. You compare problems that America has with homelessness, drugs, crime etc. with problems in China. China tries to hide its internal problems. America is happy to let everyone know what is bad so that it may become better. China would also be better off it allowed free discourse. Yet we too have a mass media that wants to hide the evils of our own government but fortunately we can still work around it if we try hard enough. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3040048/support-hong-kong-protests-china-has-consequences-some Papillon, I thank you for the effort you put into your response. It sounds to me that we are not too far away from each other in our beliefs and might gain from further debate.
  3. 7 points
    Anybody else seeing the shale oil ‘house of cards’ collapsing as we speak? Many of us saw this coming, but were continually shouted down by the shale oil cheerleaders. With rig count plummeting and lack of financing, the DUC’s being completed (finally) is the only reason production is still up. Once the DUC backlog is completed it is going to be a whole new ballgame!
  4. 7 points
    I don't think any rational human being would disagree with your sentiment. There are arguments to the vallidity of some of the "science" IMO but the willingness to want to change for the better is an admirable quality. However unless we want economies to collapse due to not having viable alternate energy sources this wont happen overnight. Fossil fuels are here to stay and for a long time based on current technologies and energy supplies. This is perhaps the reality that many environmentalists just don't grasp. If you take California as an example, and a forward thinking state from an environmentalists perspective, they are currently experiencing blackout after blackout because of the massively increased legislation the utilties have to now comply with. i drive a hybrid car, am i helping make a differnce to Co2 emissions? absolutely not! in fact over the lifespan of the car it will probably cost the environment more than an ICE vehicle due to the amount of Co2 it takes to manufacture the battery in the first place. i wonder how many environmentalists know this and thinking they are helping when in fact they are making things worse. Are we all prepared to accept blackouts as the norm and is it a price worth paying? Maybe, time will tell. As for the EU, it has potential but is crippled by political in fighting and bureaucracy. Reform it from the top down and you may just have something! Respectfully
  5. 6 points
    Within the nexus of this "national competition" one casualty has been the US (and Canada) production of canola, which the Chinese now refuse to buy in an effort to place hurt on the US agriculture sector and achieve, by inflicting trade pain, what they cannot achieve at the bargaining table. The boycott and import-refusal of China as relates to US canola has left vast swathes of canola plant in the field with no market, and with those farmers facing financial ruin. One response has been for Trump to declare financial aid, presumably in the form of price-support or production payments. Yet, canola is an interesting plant, and the question arises, are there other uses for it? Let's take a look. Canola is known in the rest of the world as "rapeseed." The plant grows readily, has a stalk by-product, and the pod end contains the canola seed, which is the part that is trans-shipped by bulk freighter to the customer, who then presses the seed to extract the oil. Canola oil is superb for use as a cooking oil and basically all of the output is used for that purpose. The left-over seed material is known in that industry as "meal" and is rich in protein, and typically used for direct feed to livestock. It is a premium feed for that purpose, so the by-product has quite a bit of added value. Keep in mind that some 20 years ago there was no organized market in the USA for canola, and the product was not grown, at least not in anny quantity. The entire market, and its production in the US, is responsive to Chinese demand. Canola is thus a classic "substitute good" for US Midwest farmers, where land typically used for corn or wheat is re-planted with canola, more profitable for the sale to the Chinese. In a sense, the entire market is an artificial one, as there were no natural customers for US canola. World supply came typically from Australia and parts of Europe, especially Eastern Europe, I think Ukraine. But, Chinese demand for better diets and thus more cooking oils exploded the demand for canola, and the US growers eagerly responded. Faced with mountains of unsold, and unsalable, canola seed in the US, the question arises: what can we do with the stuff? And a tantalizing prospect arises. I assume that the pressing operation to manufacture the canola oil is a mundane industrial process and can be readily duplicated. I would doubt that seed-pressing is an occult art, it is likely quite mature technology at this point world-wide. OK, so now we set up seed-pressing inside the USA and we develop this vast lake of canola oil (the meal part being sold to livestock ranches and pig farms, for a nice profit of course). It turns out that canola oil is a great feedstock for the production of diesel fuel, or "bio-diesel." Already there are these installations that take used cooking oil and refine the stuff to create diesel, then used to run local buses.Well, if used oil works, why not fresh oil? The stumbling block to using bio-diesel is that the manufacture of the diesel results in the production of glycerin, a thick fat material that will clog up fuel lines, especially if the temperature drops and the glycerin congeals. So, efforts are directed towards the removal of the glycerin, and to no surprise as some 10% to 20% by weight of the canola oil will result in glycerin in conventional extraction methods, the resale price of glycerin has collapsed, and the material is today treated as a waste product. Can glycerin have a useful "home," become a product with its own value? That is an interesting question: I suspect it can, possibly as a fuel enhancer for stationary power plants or home-heating fireplaces. I postulate that wood log splits can be soaked in the stuff, and it would burn nicely. Possibly wood pellets can be soaked in liquid glycerin and again this would boost the btu output of pellets in direct burning. The glycerin results from converting that canola oil with methyl alcohol, or "methanol," of which there is lots and lots in America available on the cheap, itself manufactured in special methanol plants from corn. The methanol reactions result in the formation of glycerin, and there is currently no industrial pathway for canola conversion without methanol. Yet, interesting research is being don on distilling bio-diesel from canola without the production of glycerin. One approach is the use of dimethyl carbonate as a catalyst, and that protocol apparently dramatically reduces the amount of glycerin as a by-product. Another takes it a step further and adds a preparation consisting of active sodium methoxide catalyst prepared by crystallization, in the form of a finely-ground powder, which has the tantalizing result of producing virtually no glycerin at all. Can either of these reaction pathways be developed into robust industrial processes to fully convert canola oil directly into diesel (or jetfuel)? I bet they can. I bet they will. And once that happens, whoever is in there "first" with gobs of capital to set it up on a seriously large scale will clean up. Why? Because a pure, clean bio-diesel is unbeatable as an engine fuel, and as a heating fuel. There are technical reasons for this which I shall avoid discussing for brevity, but I see this as a real winner. And best of all, it gets the US farmer out from underneath in a great big hurry, and provides far more income than selling the seeds in bulk to the Chinese. Does the USA need China as a customer - for anything? And the answer is No. The USA is quite capable of finding other markets, or planting other crops, or creating new markets and products from its existing stable, and totally excluding the Chinese. What it will impact is the US oil markets, in that it will provide a farm product as direct substitution for a middle distillate. Yet, and again speculating, if the product substitution is directly against imported oil, it does not whack the US shale producers so much as depress US imports of ME or African oils. Either way, I predict that a successful development of the redeployment of canola oil into biodiesel is going to make some entrepreneurs vastly rich, and take market share away from producers and distillers in the US Midwest and Gulf Coast. And that would be an interesting re-alignment.
  6. 6 points
    I see shale oil just hitting it's stride but that's just my personal experience with 19 wells in the Wolfcamp. I don't believe it's DUCs being completed that is the reason for production increasing while rig count is dropping. As I stated on another thread, my two operators have drilled and completed 7 new wells this year. XTO has drilled 12 and completed all of them since spring of 2018. They built infrastructure to support both storage and water disposal. They have about 45,000 bbl of tank storage for oil and the same for water. They have SWD disposal pipelines that have the capacity of 12,000 bbl/day which amounts to about 4000 bbl/day of oil production. So the limitation for them isn't wells, it's infrastructure to support their drilled and producing capacity. On the old leases that XTO has inherited from XOM, they have many wells under one lease so you can't see from public data how any single well is doing. Here is a clip of XTO's production in October for their Phantom Wolfcamp field. Oil/Condensate (Whole Barrels) Gas/Casinghead Gas - MCF Lease Type District RRC Identifier Field Name Lease Name Gas Well ID Lease Total Commingle Permit No. On Hand Beginning of Month Production Disposition On Hand End of Month Formation Production Disposition Volume Code Volume Code Oil 08 48218 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) HURLEY 56-18 1,521 128,229 128,738 00 984 674,472 629,639 03 28 08 44,833 04 Gas 04 FLARE Oil 08 48520 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) HALEY-GARLAND ALLOCATION 8 479 2,860 2,214 00 1,125 4,948 1,938 03 3,010 04 Gas 04 FLARE Oil 08 48657 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST. LUCIA 76 2833 7648 1,738 145,306 144,287 00 2,066 292,404 271,120 03 691 01 21,284 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 50025 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST KITTS 76 2833 7648 156 15,446 15,309 00 220 33,722 31,267 03 73 01 2,455 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 50068 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) ST JOHN 76 2734 7648 5,017 307,960 307,128 00 4,378 540,496 509,871 03 1,471 01 30,625 04 Gas 04 Vented/Flared Oil 08 51942 PHANTOM (WOLFCAMP) KATE 33-40 1,305 9,993 10,209 00 1,089 36,480 35,663 03 817 04 Three of the leases produce over 100,000 barrels per month. Mine is Hurley and we are on track for 1mmbbl of production this year on those 12 wells. The latest wells are all 1000bbl/day producers, I see that from the royalty checks and also I pulled the IP reports for them. These wells are all on the west half of the section. I suspect that the other two large producers are on one or two sections and managed the same way. It's likely that the smaller producers are only a single well and they plan to expand them the same way they did on mine. We had a single well from 2016 to 2018 and then they went into the big development build out. XTO is in it for the long run and their disposal contracts run 10 years they told us. I believe they intend to maintain this level of production for that 10 year span which is good for me. Keep in mind, they have mostly been drlling the Wolfcamp, some of the wells are in the Bone Springs but they don't break the production out that way for whatever technical reason. The Bone Springs wells produce more gas and less oil. My independent operator has built his own water disposal facility and so makes money on that by taking water from other producers. He gets to keep the skim oil and he makes several hundred barrels per day off skim oil. XTO gets paid for skim oil in it's agreement with it's disposal facility whch they then pay to us. There is a lot of money being made out there on services and infrastructure so this is not a fiasco, it's a real business that produces real jobs and if you ask me, it's just as viable as Amazon or Google which like them or not, are here to stay in our lifetimes. Here is the plat map for my section with all 12 wells shown. This is the plat for the 31h so it's the unlabeled line. I believe 30 and 31h are child wells of 1h and 2h and they are both better producers than the parent wells are. XTO seems to be following a pattern of producing only one of the parent/child wells at a time. I don't know how advisable it is to not produce one well while the other is producing but that is what they are doing. I think going forward this year I will be able to get a better insight into what the rotation is but for 2019 it's hard to tell because they have been drilling and completing new wells and bringing too many wells on line to fully discern their production patterns. I just know that they don't produce all the wells every month because they can't support the volumes.
  7. 6 points
    LOL Look forward not backward. When DUCs drawn down the weak go out of business. The strong continue to drill now. At least half of the shale industry will merge consolidate or file bankruptcy. Shale industry hiring . . Mathematicians and Computer Science grads. Don't need more field engineers. Don't fight it. EMBRACE THE NEW SHALE INDUSTRY. Yesterday Conoco CEO said U.S. will probably increase production about a million barrels a day by end of 2020. U.S. Production up to 12.9 million barrels day week ending Nov 29th
  8. 6 points
    I have a Masters degree in Economics. It does not give me any advantage by itself in the world of trading crude oil. I have a Masters degree in Finance. It has provided me with the tools to lose millions in the stock market. Seems like a waste of time and money on my behalf doesn't it ? By losing millions I learned my most valuable lessons by asking myself " Where does the money go ?" It seems to evaporate. It doesn't. It gets concentrated into the hands of a few. All stocks. All commodities markets are set up for one reason. Options trading. The most lucrative options market in the world is WTI. The most lucrative for the market makers of WTI that is. I have traded options from the short side for decades. The OVX ( Oil Volatilty Index ) is currently 32.2. The volatity index for the S&P is 14.8. This makes a huge difference in the pricing of puts and calls. Today I Sold to Open 2 Jan 58 calls at 1.25 each. Using all the same criteria except replacing the OVX with the VIX into the Black-Scholes calculator gives 52 cents. These options expire in 12 days. The further out in time I go this disparity in pricing becomes even more significant. You'll never see this strategy in a book or on Youtube. I started with 1 WTI contract in Nov 2017. Paid in full. No margin. I now control 8 contracts. All paid in full. I have never met another trader that does what I do. I've run across thousands of traders over the course of my 40 years in finance. Not one. It's almost like it's a closed society. Economics and finance enabled me to know the possibilities. Up until 2 years ago I had clientele. Had some for decades. Once I figured this out I fired them all. Best day of my life.
  9. 6 points
    I like your list. One addendum I would add is executive management experience. It is well known (albeit forgotten in all the hype surrounding Obama) that state governors make better presidents than senators or congressmen, because the skillset is totally different. Someone like Biden can spend a 30 year career in the Senate and never introduce a single piece of legislation, let alone "manage" anything more that a staff of yes men. On the experience side, Trump is completely inexperienced as a politician. Many people like myself see that as a positive, but every professional politician (and they are legion) see that as decidedly negative. Many people like to compare Trump to Reagan, but as you adroitly pointed out, Reagan was most certainly a professional politician by the time he ran for President. Eisenhower was merely a general and obviously an outsider to politics as Trump is. However, with his pedigree (winning WWII helps), no one dared subject him to the kind of attacks Trump experiences daily. Furthermore it was quite frankly a better time then. Newspapers and the three networks employed actual journalists who had professional standards, not pitch men pretending to be journalists.
  10. 6 points
    Also sir I would add that we very evidently have a differing opinion of the word 'independently'. May I suggest that parental involvement in her 'navigation', whether transportational or in life decisions, is not in fact a life or childhood led 'totally independently', so it seems it is what you claim that has no basis. This is why, as shown above, you contradicted yourself within minutes. I would also personally change the wording of 'helping her navigate' to 'abusing her condition and good intentions' through life. And I would also contemplate this is not a decision a child 'independently' could make at 15. Maybe in Sweden the law is somewhat different, but I do not believe this decision can remotely be considered good parenting after developing the conditions she has at age 11. Defend her cause all you wish but to suggest any 'independence' in her life is sheer ignorance I'm afraid sir.
  11. 6 points
    In fairness sir I believe I could throw this statement back to you, as the 'others' you 'rely on at your discretion' involve tabloid trash and personal bios on platforms such as Facebook. Hardly the Financial Times is it sir? Incidentally I hope this is not a case of me committing 'whataboutyouism' Mr Smith? Sorry, I jest. When said author 'writes', for want of a better term, for what I consider trash, then there is no need to 'determine' anything sir in my opinion. If you wish to not only read articles such as this, but to quote them to others as if undisputed fact, then I'm afraid to inform you that you seem a little swayed by the most basic journalism. Therefore the line 'how you choose to inform yourself' becomes somewhat ironic when discussing any topic with you at all I fear. From what I have seen of your content, I presume this is the reason you have been arguing with other users with regard to the President's impeachment hearings. I would strongly suggest that you atleast consider changing your journalistic sources sir, if only for a fuller spectrum of potential information. As you yourself stated, 'how you choose to inform yourself is a matter of your discretion', but it appears you have not been 'discreet' in establishing what you read, for instance an individual's Facebook page as proof of apparently anything, and that will do you no favors I fear.
  12. 6 points
    To be fair sir, I requested some knowledge, as 'opinions are no substitute for knowledge', and you posted several links to what I would consider tabloid trash in all honesty. If this is what you personally classify as 'knowledge' then we have little more to discuss I am afraid to say. The British would not even use these papers to wrap fish and chips up to the best of my knowledge. That said, in fairness to you I opened most of the links sir and within the 'parents' one I could not help but note the irony of the final two lines. But no one gets from New York to Montreal to Edmonton and on to Chile for free. Is it just her parents? Anyone speaking against any aspect of climate change gets accused of being in the pocket of Big Oil, so if she gets to scold the planet, she needs to be more transparent than a mere Facebook posting.
  13. 6 points
    I would tend to agree sir, but it seems what you consider 'knowledge' in most topics ironically is opinion? Could you tell me then please with your vast 'knowledge' of her life how she does manage these feats? Did she pay for the boats by doing a newspaper round perhaps? Did she simply receive an invitation to the UN through the post? This page clearly would not be biased in any way would it? I stand in awe of your knowledge and choice of source material, the individual in question's personal facebook page. It is of little wonder why people react to you the way they do sir.
  14. 6 points
    With respect sir, a teenage girl does not voyage on boats round the world or manage to enter international UN meetings 'independently' in my humble opinion. Also her facebook bio that you linked I would guess was potentially not written by herself, as the English in all fairness is too good, and she seems to not frequent school too often.
  15. 6 points
    Super long post, much to unpack. I'll start with this. My wife of almost 40 years is Chinese. I used to be fairly fluent in Mandarin, out of practice now but still understand much more than I can speak. Unfortunately I learned phonetic style not Pinyin so can't type it properly in English. I have been friends with several hundred Chinese over the decades. I can only name two who moved back (while they could have stayed), and they went to Hong Kong. Others couldn't get green cards etc. We even had 3 Chinese over for Thanksgiving dinner. I love Chinese people, not so much the 0.1% who rule the country as if it is their personal fiefdom. You've heard of "Princelings" I'm sure. Children of senior party members, who when they show up in the news are usually dead from crashing a Lamborghini. Half million dollar car for a kid with no job whose parents "earn" $40,000 a year? Xi can "pretend" he's rooting out corruption, but it's baked into the system. All he accomplished was a change of the guard of who gets to collect the red envelopes. And there's the rub. For all our warts in the West, since we've allowed for a free press, it (used to) do a great of catching and publicizing the corrupt politicians. Not always and not everywhere, but often enough. Now we have Joe Biden, who figured out a way around the emoluments clause by using his neer do well son to collect the bribes, but because over the past 50 years the press has been taken over by DNC agents, no one was any the wiser. Until Trump made a call. Now everyone gets to act Shocked, Shocked about Trump asking for an investigation while "pretending" that there was NOTHING to investigate! Luckily there's this little thing called the Internet (invented here BTW) and everyone who wants to get informed, can. Last, and not because I don't have more to say, but because my post is getting too long, I want to clarify the difference between America being a military superpower and being an economic superpower. We happen to be both, and there are those who will say the one causes the other. The question is, which one? I for one believe the economy supports the military, not the other way around. Unfortunately there are countless fools in and around government who believe it's the other way around. Given that "it's the economy, stupid", Trump is correct that losing millions of manufacturing jobs and industries to China was going to destroy us in the long run. Hence the "trade war", which Tom is correct quoting an author who says we already won, which was never about winning "the trade war", but about reshuffling a crooked deck. China bribed Clinton and got most favored nation status, then leveraged that into building their manufacturing at the Direct expense of ours. Damage done, Trump is doing what he can to fix it. Obama said, "What are you going to do, wave a magic wand? Those jobs are never coming back". Whoops they Are coming back, which is why China is trying to interfere in This election to get Trump out of office, to be replaced by someone easier to manipulate.
  16. 5 points
    Good day everybody, I thought I'd save you all a little time here and if you wish you can focus the seemingly non stop national competition to this thread. I was under the impression personally that neither system was perfect by any means, but it rather seems the 'whataboutism' is almost constant from both sides. It appears to rather prove my point beforehand that an understandable national pride that we all have inherently is prone to taking over and indeed blinker users here from their nation's own domestic problems, to a point they will defend literally anything done, whether historically or in the modern era, with disregard to its negative aspects, as long as it appears their own nation is 'better' or 'not as bad' as the other. Joking aside, I feel it may tidy up the forum somewhat also. Please feel free to mention any trade war news, impeachment news. economic or growth details and comparisons, President Trump news, Emperor Xi news, future global projections, anything at all connected to either country, as almost every thread seems to end up in this way anyway from what I can see. This is not intended as an insult particularly, I am genuinely very interested by certain users' views on these topics, I simply aim for the conversation to be in and evolve from one place. To clarify, I obviously am not expecting an answer to the title of the piece, that is intended as pure sarcasm, and I obviously appreciate that with some regard the future of the planet may be affected by some of these matters, but I do wish simply to gather all opinion here. And no Mr Regan, this suggestion is not an impication or wish from myself to be a moderator. It is simply that - a suggestion sir. Respectfully to you all, Papillon.
  17. 5 points
    @Papillon If my old fellow service man DT (by the way DT thanks for your service) has paid you respect I can only further apologise for feeling you out, it must have seemed strange to be randomly barraged from some person you have never heard of, you did well, I had no reason whatsoever for jumping on your case, you sir will be well respected here. DT and I have campaigned in various theatres, I was his spotter during various covert operations, never one to grab the limelight as a spotter, I always left DT to take the credit, I'm sure he will be first to admit we were and still are a team, DT was always a good wordsmith but he wasn't very good at numbers hence why we maid such a good team, this is now evident in his trading. Many nights were spend listening to his stories over the comms, but when it came down to business he always got confirmation. I saw you are half English, where is the other half, Scotland maybe, that would be good for DT moving ahead, anyway don't apologise for your English or understanding of it, your English is better than mine, but Im Scottish, so best not go there, even though the sasanachs don't realise we are speaking their own mother tongue from centuries ago, but we cut them slack. Okay Rambled On to quote the best band in History, even DT and Im sure @Rob Plant will also agree, he better he wrote it. Cheers and great weekend to you Sir and all my friends on OP.......
  18. 5 points
    People do not seem to realize that the root cause of the production problems associated with shale oil is the extremely low permeability or the ability for the rock to flow. There is only so much that you can do to mitigate this issue. Let’s take a simplistic historical view. First a well is drilled vertically through a tight shale formation. This yields a certain surface area for hydrocarbons to enter the wellbore, which in turn gives a certain production rate for that surface area and permeability. The rate is uneconomical. How do we increase the permeability of the reservoir rock matrix? We can’t, so we must adjust the surface area. We now drill a lateral through the reservoir. Surface area of the wellbore increases and production goes up - for awhile. The near wellbore oil is recovered ‘easily’, but as the oil further from the wellbore is being recovered, the tortuous path between the shale grains becomes longer, friction becomes greater and it becomes more difficult for the oil to reach the wellbore. Eventually the production rate becomes uneconomical. We need even more surface area, so we hydraulically fracture the formation. Once again, more surface area yields higher production - until it doesn’t for exactly the same reasons described above. At some point the money runs out and you can neither increase the length of the laterals OR increase the number of stages in the frac program. Okay, let’s just drill and frac a multitude of wells in the same area. This will yield a huge increase in the wellbore surface area (remember, you can’t really change the permeability of the actual reservoir rock) and production should skyrocket, and it does, right up to the point that it doesn’t and the parent/sibling well issue raises it’s ugly head. At the end of the day, the shale oil boom will bust simply because you can not alter the deep reservoir permeability AND you’ve run out of money trying to do so. That’s it in a nutshell. Over to you Jabbar...
  19. 5 points
    The Permian gained 2 million bpd last year. 2018 well decline is 1 million bpd in just 7 months. The Tier 2 & 3 acerage not only produces 1/3 to 1/2 less EUR it also declines at nearly twice the rate. So that treadmill just got steeper and you just barfed your protein bar. There is no way this goes on more than another 6 months. DUC's fill/plug a few holes but it's fingers in the dike. We're going to peak around 13 mbpd probably December and then it will start the decline and it won't be slow. So it grew roughly 8 mbpd over 10 years, it will decline 8 mbpd in 5 years or 1.6 mbpd a year. So this time next year we will be at 11.5 mbpd. I think it won't get to 13 mbpd, probably 12.6 mbpd. Right now 85% of new production goes to replacing legacy decline. In the Permian. Tier 1 acerage is gone. You can tell by 2018 decline rates which look to come in at 80 - 90%. Gone in 1 year. No more new oil wells because oil price has to double or triple or maybe more to justify the expense. The Wolfcamp #'s I see above have to be Tier 1. As far as refracking, I hear that only works in the Bakken and on only the best wells. Not much there. I'm not the only one who thinks the worm has turned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhc6vyxVsDs
  20. 5 points
    Please read my comments in the Tom Kirkman thread about trade war with China. But fortunately we do not have to argue about it, to prove this or other way, win/loose etc. Time will tell, Trump is wisely manouvering with the deal right into spring of 2021, after winning second term. By this moment the numbers will tell the truth about the trade war (for some like me they already told their story, but longer time series will give satisfying answer for the rest of the pack).
  21. 5 points
  22. 5 points
    I was trying to see the situation through the Trump lenses, his problems and goals. His major task is to win 2020 election, all other tasks are secondary. You are right to REALLY solve conflict with China, Trump needs co-operation with Europe, but who says any US politician really wants to solve US problems. It is not their primary task, primary one is ...................................................... yes, no suprise here, to win next election.
  23. 5 points
    Remake it is, as you say, obviously getting his information directly from the DNC, NYT, Washington Post, CNN, etc, where it is blatantly and painfully apparent that none of those organizations actually hired any employees that have any discernible knowledge of the proper reporting procedures that they should. If you were to actually read or listen to any of these supposed news sources you would almost instantly realize that they are reporting not facts, which is what the news is supposed to be, but they are writing editorials in place of articles now. I canceled my subscription to my local newspaper for that very reason. I cannot believe that a person could spend so many years in the halls of higher learning and come out with nothing more than what I am seeing happening. I also have a difficult time believing that there are so many that would even accept a job with these supposed "news outlets" and even be able to hold their head up with any shred of dignity, they have obviously been told what they are going to say and how they are going to say it. News reporting has become so much about opinion now, and the children today are being taught to do what they are told, with enough education to do so without questioning. It is so sad that our country has come down to this, and I do believe we are about to have another revolutionary war as it were, the Liberals that want socialism vs the conservatives that want our constitution upheld again. I do see so many parallels from the days when Hitler was rising to power that it really does scare the be-jesus out of me. The liberals have no clue what they are wanting to give up, and they have no idea how badly they will fare under socialism. And even pointing out Venezuela does no good, for they believe in rainbows and unicorns, they need comfort animals and safe spaces for their feelings. The gay community is starting to dictate how sex ed is taught in schools now, and I'll tell you, the conservatives have been standing quietly in the shadows warning the liberals to stop. I do believe they won't understand until it is way too late to turn the tide back to what was..... We will turn them back, I promise you.
  24. 5 points
    The title of this topic is, "Trump's China policy, death by a thousand cuts", so of course we're going to be talking about China here. The whataboutism concerned primarily the bad deeds done on multiple sides. Another way of looking at it is to say, "two wrongs don't make a right". Hopefully you aren't feeling insulted. I've been away multiple hours and should be in bed now but wanted to see what you'd had to say. Concerning the trade war, I'm in general agreement with Marcin on this one. The damage from the trade dispute isn't too egregious, the pain not that real. Sure farmers would like to sell soybeans for a higher price and China chooses to buy theirs from Brazil to "pay back" Trump. That's not illegal, nor did I mean to imply that it was. Illegal happens when state sponsored actors make surgical attacks on public forums and hack databases etc. All of this is happening now. China pretends it's a communist country but in reality it has become a fascist dictatorship. The means of production have left the exclusive hands of the state to be replaced by corporate winners chosen by the state; a difference with a distinction. Whereas in the US there are multiple corporations competing with each other and corporations from other countries, when it comes to China they can quickly find themselves competing with the state. That means instead of just worrying about the usual corporate espionage, they now must face actual espionage from the Chinese spy agencies. You'll note this is one of the issues on the table in these trade talks, even though the press doesn't like to point that out. As far as the US being dominant, think how we got here. No direction from the state, no planned economy, just good old American ingenuity taking a random Brownian walk through the economy. Our semiconductor industry is ahead because we have Sand Hill Road venture capitalists throwing large sums at often sketchy ideas. If the investments had to get approved by government types, not one in one hundred would be funded. Chaotic yes, but overall superior. A great American said, "I'd rather be ruled by the first thousand names in the Boston phone book than all the dons of Harvard". There's some deep wisdom to that. Given China's history, there are vast swaths of her population who desire stability over all else and who better than the cognesceti to provide that? Given America's rather short history, I'm not even sure stability makes the top ten list with anyone. The Chinese insult, "may you live in interesting times" is endlessly amusing to Americans. We love interesting times.
  25. 5 points
    First of all Papillion, let me join the other voices here in thanking you for upgrading both the intelligence and demeanor of this site. A fine job sir and I hope to emulate your good example. I'll admit to some frustration with certain posters and a tendency to join them in the gutter, because they're not elevating their discourse. Since I'm doing this on a mobile device I can't handle large posts very well since there's a lot of scrolling back and forth. I don't mind reading them, just difficult to reply. I've edited yours above and will address them. Agreed about our president. Be assured there are many partisans who would vehemently disagree with my contention about Clinton and the evidence is circumstantial at best. However, there was a certain "air" with the Clintons, which added up to the stench of corruption for those not on the "winning party" side. To address multiple threads at once, let me clarify the US system and how its adversarial design actually aids in tamping down corruption. As Mr Plant says and I agree, humans are fundamentally flawed beings and I also agree with another Englishman who said, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely". Our founding fathers knew this, so designed a system with multiple checks and balances. The three arms of government are well known, but the additional rights enshrined in the Bill of Rights and the amendments to the constitution also serve a vital purpose. As @ronwagn alluded to, our 2nd Amendment is in there to try and keep the government honest, which presumes the 3 branches didn't succeed. A fail-safe as it were. Remember, like China in 1949, this country also was the product of a revolution. The founding fathers built on what was right and built in safeguards against what was wrong. Importantly, the First Amendment gives me the right to criticise the government without fear of reprisals. That's so engrained in our culture that it's impossible to visualize being without it. It's certainly being abused but even knowing it's misused, the pros outweigh the cons and we'll grudgingly put up with, for instance, Antifa. So you should understand, from an American perspective Hong Kong protests look like protests here, and we all recognize that China doesn't put up with that, being an authoritarian country, plus we all witnessed what happened at Tiananmen Square. How might things have gone differently there if China had our first two amendments? Recognize too that I personally know people who were there, no need to find out through warped lenses of the MSM. Our founders never would have envisioned the entire MSM being suborned as it has been by a very limited cabal of owners. In their day there were multiple competing papers in the same town. Now a town is lucky to have one, but it's owned by Knight Ridder or some corporate behemoth. Therefore internet, such as it is gives a balancing viewpoint. It is up to the readers to separate the wheat from the chaff. Finally, how is China attempting to interfere in our election? First, very smart Chinese, likely educated here, have analyzed the electoral college map, and have been applying direct pressure on those states where Trump got through, what the MSM were calling in the 2016 election, the "Chinese wall" of blue democrat states. Since these are largely rural, they've been attacking the economies of those states, which grow soybeans etc. In addition, they've been sending humans and bots to post anti Trump messages on bulletin boards like this one, but focused on agriculture. I don't have direct evidence of additional methods but suspect plenty of direct involvement in DC with various factions.
  26. 5 points
    I would agree sir but to refer to your very own analogy it was an American president himself that took such bribes and altered this deck. Therefore the comment regarding China, and a very small percentage of people having subsequent power there, is equally applicable here to your nation surely, as 'the few' in your country have affected your status for decades due to their own greed and personal gain. Please show me a nation whose leaders aren't corrupt or at the very least desperate to cling to power and will do whatever it takes to do so. To me it is apparent that we as human beings are flawed and are easily corrupted when in positions of power and this leads to corruption, whether they be Chinese, American, English or whoever, it doesn't matter, the flaw in human nature remains. Look at Cuba where Castro has a personal net worth of $900M and yet 99% of the population languish in abject poverty. Hegemony wars (along with religious wars) throughout the ages of man have killed 100's of millions and usually this has been down to greed or fear of losing power by a handful of desperate or crazy "leaders". Projects such as ITER (https://www.iter.org/) that combine dozens of nations working together to try to better humanity give me hope, it may prove to be the biggest white elephant known to man, or it may be a real breakthrough for the world, at least we are working together and trying to better ourselves not at the expense of another country or demograph. I believe fundamentally with democracy, freedom of speech, capitalism, human and animal rights. I'm sounding like a liberal now, which I am not by the way 🤣
  27. 5 points
    No, that is not true. What happened is that we finally have a President wise enough to deal with how badly we were being treated by the Chinese government. To be clear, we want the best for the Chinese people and those of every nation.
  28. 4 points
    As US GDP continues to drift lower in the 4th quarter US refinery run rates continue to be depressed. In this discussion I will present data from November 2018 to be compared to November of 2019. Using EIA's refinery inputs starting 11/09/2018 every week in Nov 2019 had a lower total as compared to Nov 2018 totals. US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2018 was 3.1%. US GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2019 is currently being estimated at 2.0%. This slowdown in the economy is even more prevalent in domestic crude demand by US refineries. For the month of Nov 2018 the refinery run rate averaged 17.082 mbd. For Nov 2019 the refinery run rate dropped 711 kbd. This is 4.16% decline for Nov 2019 as compared to Nov 2018. This is almost 5 million less barrels of oil per week. This figure by itself indicates the US is already in a recession, but US crude exports are part of the equation also. US crude exports rose from an average of 2.416 mbd to 3.069 mbd. An increase of 653 kbd. Using 2018 November demand total of 17.082 + 2.416 = 19.498 mbd to compare d to November 2019's total of 16.371 + 3.069 = 19.444 mbd or a decline of 58 kbd. A decline of .3%. On November 30,2018 US crude inventories were 443 million barrels. On November 29,2019 US crude inventories were 447 million barrels. Using the price of WTI on each week-ending date by EIA I attained an average monthly price of ( $60.19 + 56.46 + 50.42 + 50.93 )÷4 = $54.50 for Nov 2018. The price for Nov 2019 was calculated as follows: ( $57.24 + 57.72 + 57.77 + 55.17 ) ÷ 4 = 56.98. WTI's current price is $59.18. That is 8.56% higher than Nov 2018 average price of $54.50 when supply and demand was almost identical to now.
  29. 4 points
    Kathleen Wynne spent 17 years as premier of Ontario doing exactly that, and she ended up totally wrecking the manufacturing sector of the province. Finally, in the last election, the Wynne Liberals went down to a stupendous, crashing defeat, from a majority party of 124 seats to only 5, a disaster enough to wipe the Liberals off the map as even a third-party, and now without official standing in the Opposition. Has it sunk in with the Liberals that theirs was a failed path? Nope. The Trudeau Liberals at the Federal level simply continue on the same catastrophic path, and the result is there for all to see: a collapsed business sector. For Canadians, that seems to be OK. They collectively seem to want to get out of all manufacturing, even food processing, in favour of "services." The result: even the Campbell Soup cannery in SW Ontario has closed down, even the soup guys couldn't hack it, so Canada's tomato crop is history, left to rot in the fields, no market for the stuff. Just brilliant. "Legislate what business can do?" There is not much of that business left to go legislate. OK, Suncor is still around, and that Husky refinery in Edmonton. Get past that, and what do you have? The CN?
  30. 4 points
    Duc's are like regular wells. Not all of them come in gushers. By my math you need to drill 4 or 5 wells to find that 600,000 barrel EUR well. That's why frackers can't make money. At the beginning of the year they were completing 0 Duc's. Last month they did 225 and it's going up fast. My guess is next month they'll do 300 and 500 a month by spring. 20% of 7500 is somewhere around 1850 Tier 1 wells. By the summer they're gone.
  31. 4 points
    @Papillon in all reality I was honestly having a jesting dig, I was called Pompous once on here by the most pompous person on the planet, I believe. I was just testing your water. Welcome to the forum, Im sure you will be a great addition. respectfully James
  32. 4 points
    More DUCs are being completed than wells being drilled apparently, I would hope the tightening of financing should get rid of non serious players (there were loads a few years ago) leaving smart experienced and streamlined companies who know how to operate. I think production will grow much slower than some people have claimed and that is overall a good thing for the industry. If OPEC also plays ball we could see oil prices gradually increase next year without the risk of another crazy boom in shale the latter could be controlled by borrowing costs and the fact that companies might have to start drilling much more tier 2 and 3 wells (if I understand the meaning correctly). I'm hoping that they have to start targeting formations that are deeper and take longer to drill, drilling 10,000ft laterals in 3 days is pretty gruesome, less pay for the same amount of work. I did notice this year that we started drilling some much deeper wells for some clients which were over 12,000ft vertical depth far deeper than the usual ~7000ft deep wells we drilled the previous year. I'm cautiously optimistic for next year...fingers crossed!
  33. 4 points
    I'm not convinced about the not stealing part. In fact my old ASIC company had designed communications chips and cores currently standard in roughly all the world. Everyone who didn't buy the chips just licensed the cores. Except a well known Chinese company suddenly came out with their "own" design. Except it wasn't their own, they had just run with a design we'd used for a test boat (the wafers are called boats). The test code was supposed to have been protected, then destroyed, clearly it wasn't. Now there was a bug in our design, which was why we'd run the tests in the first place. We knew they'd stolen from us because they had exactly the same bug. Their production systems needed glue logic to compensate. Innovation is still innovation and I don't care how much a company like IBM spends, they're constantly out-innovated by smaller, more nimble competitors, who spend considerably less.
  34. 4 points
    I would have to disagree with that statement, under the Obama administration racial tensions are higher than they have been in years, and even black people that have been watching will tell you that he did absolutely nothing for them. I do believe the only thing he did was make it easier for Muslims to be here, pointedly things like them being excluded from the regulations of the ACA. That was pure favoritism there, I will say it again, either a law applies to everyone, or it doesn't apply at all. Why should anyone be expected to obey a law when someone else is exempted? Kind of like the no kid left behind strategy( I know that was Bush), why should the school districts that are performing be expected to follow the law and the ones that just can't get it together get exemptions and keep right on being a mess? That was the start of really being able to see that the law only applies to certain people, but not everyone. Like how it seems to apply to everyone with the exception of the Demo's in congress right now? I live around the Houston area and the school is such a stupid mess that the state finally came in and took over the schools, the board has no say now in HISD policies and such. What a waste, but there was so much of a power struggle from within that they couldn't get anything positive done for the students. But they did manage to give out raises for themselves, kinda funny how that worked.
  35. 4 points
    @Tom Kirkman I have a great respect for you and all other great persons that are commenting here at oilprice.com (bar a few trolls, I must admit). All of you probably noticed that I speak a different language, language of many quantitative and qualitative metrics that I present to show you my points. They are unfortunately all needed to understand the nature of US, China economies, and the effects of the current conflict (trade and technology area). It is about 30 different indicators you need to follow (although the major 10-15 are most important) and understand their mutual interdependencies, plus a little bit of knowledge about geography of resources of all kinds on the globe, plus a little bit of knowledge about historical trends in global economy, that are emulated at present, advanced degree in finance is a good addition. I did not mean to disparage the Fox media discourse, but unfortunately most of it is rubbish, these journalists have no idea what they are writing about. Example: Two China Firms Miss $526 Million Bond Payments as Woes Grow Tom the stream of thoughts that comes in 20second through my mind when I read sth you linked. China the second largest bond market in the world. I do not remember the exact number, but remember from one McKinsey presentation that bank credit is about 25 trillion, and bond market was 3 times lower, so bond market is about 5-10 trillion USD. I do not remember the rate of default at Chinese bond market, but remember that bank credit default rate in China is in line with global standards, and take this number as an indicator of magnitude for bonds. So below 1% rate of default similar to A US bonds. At 9 trillion market it is 90 billion USD a year, so till such defaults appear more often than 180 times a year it is not important. Summary: This piece was irrelevant (like 90% you read about China at Bloomberg).
  36. 4 points
  37. 4 points
    @Rasmus Jorgensen I will first go a little bit off topic to back my premise that Trump is by some metrics the best US President since at least Eisenhower. Donald Trump is the first really succesful person turned politician and not professional politician turned US President. I think business experience is a very good background for becoming politician. List of US presidents, professional politicians are also divided into experienced and inexperienced at the moment of election: Trump - succesful businessman turned politician Obama - professional politician (inexperienced) Bush Junior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced), with short business career, Clinton - professional politician (experienced) Bush senior - princeling from Bush Dynasty, professional politician (experienced), short business career, Ronald Reagan - actor that became professional politician (experienced), Jimmy Carter - professional politician (experienced) Ford - professional politician (experienced) Nixon - professional politician (experienced) Johnson - professional politician (experienced) Kennedy - princeling from Kennedy Dynasty, professional politician (inexperienced) Eisenhower - military commander turned politician
  38. 4 points
  39. 4 points
    I have not stated in any sense sir whatsoever that her stating taking care of the planet is wrong. It is a reference to earlier aspects of the discussion of her apparently doing what she does 'independently'. The fact that you have just said 'I'm not sure she pretends to know' suggests to me you would agree with me sir. To certain users she does what she does alone, and I assume that would include writing speeches? How may I ask would you write on certain topics if you 'don't even pretend to know' the topic? My guess would be with help, and so by definition, not 'independently'. With respect it is precisely the question at hand, that being the people 'behind' the girl. If you view my comments in their entirety sir you will note I have actually done nothing but defend this girl and her intentions.
  40. 4 points
    Payne interviewed Peter Morici who was in agreement even though his other writing aptly demonstrates Peter is no fan of Trump (nor conservative principles). I believe trade war secondary was the entire thrust of the article linked. Did you not read it because you saw a scary black man who happens to work for Fox Business (not to be confused with Fox News)? I'm not against what you said, if you read my post to @Papillon you'll see I said I was in general agreement with you. My point here was to encourage you to create a new thread, where hopefully your good thoughts won't be swamped among over 100 posts, many of them completely irrelevant. For instance delving into the Fed from a legitimate viewpoint would be a breath of fresh air.
  41. 4 points
    Yes of course it does sir. My point was I said I was HAPPY TO BE PROVEN WRONG, so am not sure, as always, why you felt the need to add 'is this opinion?' with your rather pathetic trademark attitude. May I suggest you actually read what others say rather than trying to reply with some immature quip beforehand? Also, for around the fourth time, your reading of MSM and Facebook, and dare I say age, speaks volumes. Make that for the fifth time as that link is her Facebook page. It seems somewhat of an addiction sir. If anyone wants answers from you, you present them Facebook as if it is a fountain of pure knowledge. May I suggest some fresh air? I asked you to answer his question and to attempt to pull yourself away from social media. You replied you have addressed his question with a link to Facebook. This is called irony sir. It wasn't even my self that made reference to opinions and knowledge, it was the users Enthalpic and Zhong Lu. Therefore I feel you do not tend to even read who said what, you simply wish to try and argue? Let me be the first to enlighten you that that will be a rather fruitless endeavour on your behalf sir. That is a fact and not an opinion.
  42. 4 points
    No sir, with rapidly lessening respect, they are quotes that I have literally just told you I am happy to be proven wrong to see if you remember? It was not very long ago sir. Maybe you need to read the end of the first quote again? Perhaps you could ignore ronwagn's 'handler' comment and answer his actual question then, or anybody's for that matter, rather than this constant 'holier than thou' attitude I notice with everyone here? That is of course assuming you can pull yourself away from teenager's facebook pages and MSM long enough. (OPINION)
  43. 4 points
    For the record, sir, the term is "manic depression" not maniac. I had a good friend growing up who was manic depressive. He was far from a genius and died one week ago quite destitute. That outcome is far from uncommon for bipolar personalities. I wouldn't wish it upon anyone sir. This whole aside is totally off topic. I recommend if you wish to discuss a child being manipulated by others for political and social gain that you create your own topic where it can be discussed at length. There's a menu right at the top of this page that lets you do just that. Choose "Start a Discussion".
  44. 4 points
    In my opinion school is exactly the right environment for a 15 year old girl with Asperger's. I don't know where you get Manic depressive from?? If you think a 15 year old girl with Asperger's is in the right environment doing what she is currently doing then I'm lost for words. Her parents should be charged with child abuse IMO. You are entitled to your view of course and clearly your school life couldn't have been personally beneficial to you, that doesn't mean it wasn't for others.
  45. 4 points
    With respect sir I would agree with the sentiment of 'what about her childhood?' And she is barely old enough even now to talk of college, we are talking literally 'school'. Should we therefore let all manic depressives just do as they wish incase of some inherent hidden genius? I wonder how that would turn out sir?
  46. 4 points
    Greta's bio from Wikipedia, her parents are monsters. Greta Thunberg was born on 3 January 2003 in Stockholm,[13][14] the daughter of opera singer Malena Ernman and actor Svante Thunberg.[15] Her paternal grandfather is actor and director Olof Thunberg.[16] FACT1: not only crazy mother, like in kids beauty contests, but crazy family. Thunberg says she first heard about climate change in 2011, when she was 8 years old, and could not understand why so little was being done about it.[18] Three years later she became depressed, lethargic, and stopped talking as well as eating, and eventually was diagnosed with Asperger syndrome, obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD), and selective mutism.[18] FACT2: Very fragile child, with very serious mental problems already developed in early childhood, by her monster parents. Family should be put under custody of social care, to help the child Her Asperger diagnosis was made public nationwide in Sweden by her mother in May 2015, in order to help other families in a similar situation, as she said.[19] FACT3: Her mother uses her as accesory, also her mental illness. Publicity and widespread organising began after Swedish schoolgirl Greta Thunberg staged a protest in August 2018 outside the Swedish Riksdag (parliament), holding a sign that read "Skolstrejk för klimatet" ("School strike for the climate") FACT4: She dropped school, to join strike, she was only 15. I do not want to read this horrible story till the end, hope she will somehow survive this treatment and find peace and happiness in life. She is a victim, do not have to be psychologist to see it.
  47. 4 points
    Enthalpic I agree with regard to the legality. With respect Mr Ward, the souces of interest to China would surely merely be 'which states grow things' or 'which states voted for Mr Trump' in essence? Why would this information only be available to government resources and not to the average citizen or just online for all? I am clearly missing something here as to me it seems the sort of detail a child could research in minutes online. Well I have not seen these yet sir. What I have noticed however are users believing there is an agenda behind Miss Thunberg (which I agree with), and yet I have seen so far no conversations about these people behind the agenda sir? It seems it is easier for grown men to attack a teenage girl with a certain syndrome. I find it rather telling and quite pathetic in all honesty.
  48. 4 points
    To pull this thread back on topic... Interesting - the farmers I know (while most are not terribly thrilled with the current situation) are far from that level of desperation... And your economist friend may be right in the realm of pure economics, however he's overlooking the complexity of the situation. Free trade and increased trade improve economic outcomes for both parties, as long as both parties play reasonably nice. That's not the situation here for a number of reasons. First, China is distorting the free market, thereby making some products produced in China and shipped to the US take more resources than they would have if produced locally (aka higher marginal cost of production) just because the Chinese government has determined that there is some external benefit to them doing so (Employment, development of infrastructure/personnel, avoiding dependence on foreign nations, increasing dependence of foreign nations, etc) that is not captured in the economic price of that unit. This undermines the principle of comparative advantage as the underlying premise of mutual benefit for free trade and challenges the basis for Bill's argument that 'no one wins trade wars'. (Btw, I'm guessing it's Bill because that's who it sounds like. If so, circles are smaller than I would have guessed.) Agreed! So even if there is an argument that everyone involved 'loses' from the economic perspective, when you take into account the benefit of avoiding open hostilities and that impact on our economy... I'd say both sides win (assuming we can, in fact, avoid this outcome).
  49. 4 points
    There is no case for impeachment You can not charge someone with perjury because their feelings were hurt or they "presumed" something Just because you call them "fact witnesses . . . does not make them facts. Name one fact they stated. Feelings, assumptions and hearsay doesn't count. Dems are masters of disinformation and plausible deniability. I had to read that monster Hitler's Mein Kampf . . . Read the section on propaganda . . . . . repeat false narratives over and over again until it becomes the truth. Sound like the Dem's playbook. The Media gets their talking point daily and in mass repeat the same line over and over all day. "Propaganda must confine itself to very few points, and repeat them endlessly. " They might get General Vidman on leaking the phone call to make whistle blower Ciaramella This manufactured narrative by the Democrat Party, fake media and the Washington Establishment is a travesty. Your U.S. justice system is dead. Civility in U.S. government is dead.
  50. 4 points
    Women's rights to their own body.... what a travesty. Abortions suck - but the body of evidence supports at least allowing some. Total prohibition just forces abortions underground and cause more damage. You may not want your daughter to have an abortion but would you prefer she died of bleeding from a coat hanger, poison, or falling down a flight of steps on purpose? If you read Freakconomics there is also compelling evidence that abortion reduces crime (majority of aborted babies come from poor neighborhoods where criminality is almost systemic), it's essentially killing off future criminals. Facts can be distasteful.