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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/27/2017 in Blog Comments

  1. 6 points
    My current WTI portfolio is long and drawn out. I am new to the site and I'm not sure of the interest in options trading from the market makers perspective. If anyone is interested just let me know and I'll post it.
  2. 4 points
  3. 3 points
    I don't have a position in anything now. Unfortunately I'm a newbie and I only trade futures for now. I only understand your strategy partially, sufficient to understand that you make $$$ in a much safer way than me and most others. I knew about your strategy before I ran into you on investing. My intent is to one day do what you do but cannot at the moment due to lack of options understanding. I looked for educational material, institutions where I could learn options but have not found anything yet. I inquired with Online Trading Academy but they did not provide me enough confidence that they could teach me what I want.
  4. 3 points
    Those against Brexit lost the vote. The anti Brexit vote lost despite the entire establishment being very actively anti. The people have spoken. Anything other than a real Brexit is cause for rebellion against the elitist government.
  5. 3 points
  6. 3 points
    And I'm sure they are economically integrated because they wanted to integrate. I'm not sure if economic integration is the cause for moderation or if it is the other way round. Radicals of all sorts are notoriously loathe of changing anything about themselves or their view of the world. Could you please elaborate why you believe integration leads to moderation rather than vice versa? P.S.Large loud minority doesn't sound good. You should be less nice and welcoming. Seriously.
  7. 3 points
    I also consider myself pragmatic but I'm not covering my head and body completely just to protect the religious sensibilities of Muslim immigrants who subscribe to rules that are in stark and irreconcilable opposition to my idea of individual freedoms. We do have to meet in the middle, @Rasmus Jorgensen, that's the only way that I see as fair. Not to mention that the more concessions one side makes, the more demands the other side will have. It's human nature.
  8. 3 points
    Diversity can be a good asset. However, words are important, and the word 'diversity' is often misunderstood. Often, we think it means 'race', but in reality, it simply means 'knowledge'. A diverse group of people are those who have a variety of different backgrounds that has resulted in a diverse base of knowledge. So, for instance, electing a black man, an indian woman, and an adrogynous chinese person provides no real diversity if all three indivudals grew up on the same street and to families in the same social-economic strata. However, electing three white males aged 24-29 would provide diversity if one came from a poor family in the midwest, another from a rich family that does business overseas, and that last from a missionary family out of Africa. Multiculturalism can strength a people when, like Marina says, assimilation does happen. But what do you do when assimilation does not happen. As a case in point, and speaking of... ...I happened across some of articles today. Since I was not intentionally searching for any of these articles (or their subject matter), I can only assume this is just the tip of the iceberg. Also, these articles are all from this week: https://voiceofeurope.com/…/another-day-another-gang-rape-…/ https://voiceofeurope.com/…/14-moroccans-sexually-abuse-g…/… https://voiceofeurope.com/…/sex-attacks-up-70-in-just-one-…/ https://www.dcclothesline.com/…/illegal-alien-released-by-…/ https://www.thesun.co.uk/…/shocking-video-shows-machete-ga…/ ^Are we failing at teaching or are they failing at learning? Education is a two-way street. Sometimes a student deserves that F. ^I feel like you are describing the opening scenes in the movie Idiocracy. ...it was a terrible movie, but a great predictor of the future. ^The key word here is 'can'. Simply because we want them or expect them to be a resource doesn't mean they won't just then go on to choose to become a terrible liability. I do, however, agree with what you said about competition. ^Again, you are making this about you, when, in reality, you have no real say in what someone else chooses to do. Yes, they may decide to do what you want them to do by them choosing to have a positive impact on society, or they may decide to rape your daughter because she was alone at night and without her male escort, which, of course, violates their law. Key word: "their." The early immigrants in America assimilated so well primarily because there were no government handouts waiting for them upon arrival. In order to succeed in America, those immigrants had to interact with the Americans who were already established, and this integration fostered that assimilation. Today, however, huge government handouts make such interaction unnecessary, and this now handicaps both today's immigrants as well as today's taxpayers. The best thing that could be done to help immigrants effectively assimilate would be to immediately end all social programs and aid packages for said immigrants. This would include mandating that hospitals are no longer required to treat illegal immigrants at tax-payer expense. Make crime illegal again! (<--- I feel like that slogan would work well on a hat).
  9. 3 points
    I have been through an ice storm in rural central Illinois. It was brutal. Tried to mop up some water on the floor in the kitchen, finally realized it was coming from a refrigerator ice cube line. Had to go to a motel for a few days. My corn stove let me run a generator but my corn stove wasn't up to heating that old three story uninsulated farmhouse. The natural gas steam heat was worthless without the electrical pump. The generator oil had to be heated by the corn stove before it would work.
  10. 2 points
    Great read, what a wealth of tips, will be referring to it. I love the quote " You're going to need to source all of the castings or a complete unmolested engine in need of a little love. For a peaceful, fun-loving street engine you can build quite the 292- or 312ci Y-block and have plenty of power for the cruise. And torque is the kind of power you want on the street."
  11. 2 points
    This is a 312 cu in Y-block out of a Thunderbird running dual carbs. This is what you are shooting for. Distributor IS in the back.
  12. 2 points
    Thanks OP. I plan to hold the RBOB spread for a few months, I'm looking for parity, but will monitor CV19 developments
  13. 2 points
    Do you currently have a position in WTI ? My Jan and Feb contracts both have 58 calls written against them. My 4 short March contracts at $56.75 are hedged against any loss up until about $57.75 on the March. All contracts have plenty of time left. I sell time. I'm very patient. My orders are placed. If you're drawing a conclusion of where WTI will be just by looking at the current price you're looking in the wrong place. You have to be in it to win it. If Jan contracts expired today at 58.35 my 2Jan contracts would get called away at $58.00 but I would keep the $1.25 I received today from Selling to Open the 2 Jan 58 calls. My net sell price would be $58.00 + 1.25 or 59.25. The net Purchase Price is 50.15 so my profit is $9.10/barrel/ contract or $18,200. I would have $118,500 in my cash account. I am currently short 4 March contracts at 56.75. The March contract closed today at $57.95. I would short 2 March contracts at this price giving me 6 short March contracts at avg of 57.15. Remember I still have 2 long Feb contracts at $53.00 with 58 calls written against them at $3.00 with a target of 75 cents. Feb contracts are about 58.15. I'm not that tied in to contract prices as I am in my strategy. This is not retail trading. I hold my contracts all the way to expiration. So obviously the price of the contract is not that relevant. Retail traders find it nearly impossible to comprehend that. It's all about the options. If WTI continues up and the Feb contract expires at, lets say for example $60, then my Feb contracts get called away from me at $58 but I keep the $3.00 from the 58 call I received giving me a sell price of $58.00 + 3.00 or $61.00. The net purchase price for the Feb contracts is 48.65. The profit on the trade would be $61.00-48.65= $12.35/barrel/contract or $24,700. I would then short 2 more March contracts giving me a total of 8 short March contracts somewhere in the high $57s for an average. If my target of 52.50 is achieved the profit will be in excess of $40,000.
  14. 2 points
    Gary, have you read much Ray Dalio?
  15. 2 points
    I'm not riled up at all; I just find the topic interesting after my experiences with both the mainland and Taiwan (and U.S. rhetoric where it concerns both). I will say that the support given to Taiwan up to present day has not been for altruistic reasons such as democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Here is a good timeline that was posted on Reuters some years ago: Timeline: Taiwan's road to democracy U.S. interests in Taiwan are blatantly defensive and controlling in nature, at least that's the way I see it. Similar to South Korea, if not exactly the same. The cost benefit ratio? For military purposes alone the benefits far outweigh the costs. I have outlined in other posts some time back how China, by and large, have been the victims of expansionism and militarism by other nations for the past 1-200 years or more. They have not, as yet, invaded militarily in modern times, although they have every reason to want to get back at the people/nations that mercilessly raped and murdered their people and and took whatever else they wanted along the way (as occupying militaries are wont to do). The day will come, and the U.S., in my opinion, will rant and rave and try to get the rest of the world to rant and rave, but in the end there won't be much they can practically do, give the cost to benefit ratio of any such actions. The time will come and, if Taiwan is smart, they will blend back together relatively seamlessly. Similar to Hong Kong, Tibet and Mongolia; there has been some pain, but by and large it went seamlessly and the world did little else but rant and rave.
  16. 2 points
    A comment on the OP: Taiwan to China is every bit as much a part of China as Hawaii is a part of the United States. The island was controlled at different times by different rulers, some that claimed national sovereignty; some that were basically pirates and rogues, but the Chinese were there from as early as 1683 when the Qing dynasty took control. The Kuomintang fled to Taiwan in 1945 when Chiang Kai-Shek lost to Mao Tse Dong and, as such, to China it is nothing more than unfinished internal business that needs to be cleaned up and returned one day. I believe that day will come, when the time is right and the world is distracted elsewhere. Note: there is a lot to this question, but I believe the above is true from a territorial perspective, no matter what other countries would like things to be or how they know the power of the location of this island and its resources and "friendly" occupants (who are Chinese, by the way.).
  17. 2 points
    So now the real question arises: is there going to be some technical breakthrough in fractionation (the distillation process)? It would seem that oil refining is pretty much using the same principles and technology as it did a hundred years ago. OK, some of the equipment has been tuned up, but no fundamental changes in the technology. Let us suppose, as the mind wanders, that some genius develops a totally new method for fractionating oil. The design is so cheap that drillers now put these fractionaters right out next to the pump, and take-offs of finished products can be made right there. Now, how does that change the economics of the oil industry? For one thing, local consumption of certain distillates, such as diesel, implies that crude does not have to be piped to some remote refinery a thousand miles away, and then trucked or railed back. That seriously cuts costs. For another, it implies that heavy oils such as tar sands can be upgraded and distilled in the tar fields, resolving the big bugaboo in Canada, transporting the stuff out of there. Never underestimate what technology can accomplish.
  18. 2 points
    in trading crude 2 elements are necessary. 1] Belief in your system, and not worrying about it, no matter what. 2] Patience
  19. 2 points
    Thank you very much, Jan. People may read some of my posts and think it's BS, but it is reality where I come from. That's why it pains me when I read comments that group all Americans into some kind of perception, learned from afar. For most of America, from coast to coast and top to bottom, people are like the ones I talk about. Black, white, yellow, and yes, even some of the orange ones!
  20. 2 points
    Dan, a major tip of the hat to you! A five-star post. America; ya gotta love the spirit!
  21. 2 points
    I drove a snow plow starting about 5 years after that storm system moved through. Buried cars were not uncommon, but common people knew to move them before the storm started, or during at least, and plows didn't have too much to worry about. Having said that, the township only had one dump truck that was used as a snow plow in winter and it took a few days for us to get everywhere. We first had to help clear the town together with the town's one truck and then moved to the country roads and lanes and driveways (farmers would treat snow plow drivers like me with a great breakfast if you did their long driveways! Hey, we plowed all night!). Every able bodied resident got out the snow shovels and dug everybody out. One really bad problem, especially in ice when the phone lines went down too, was people with snow drifted against all the doors and windows to their house! We had to be aware of this and identify such houses so we could get them dug out fast. I remember getting to some old folks who thought they were ended under the snow! Nobody, and I mean nobody, accepted money for any that. A cup of something hot, a glass or two of water, maybe a piece of home cooked pie or cake, and we were on our way. Idyllic, really.
  22. 2 points
    Large apartment buildings typically have dual-fuel furnaces: they can switch over from oil to gas depending on which is cheaper. However, they still need a small amount of electricity to operate the boiler feed motors and the water circulating pump motors, and when the power goes out then you have zero heat. I remember some decades back there was a particularly nasty ice storm in the Northern wilds of Quebec, and some 17 miles of high-voltage tower lines were pulled down. To rebuild those towers and string new lines into the City of Montreal and suburbs took I think three weeks. In the meantime vast numbers of homes had frozen pipes which then burst and caused lots of water damage. What this teaches you is that you cannot take electric power supply for granted in the winter, so if you want to keep your house protected, you need either a big hefty battery bank, and a generator, and a stove for either wood or coal. And you need lots of insulation!
  23. 2 points
    Now that was seriously cold! The way to have a "back-up" is to install a battery bank and a hefty inverter, something on the order of 3.5 KW, enough to start and run the well pump, so that you can keep water pressure up in the heating system. I have discovered that (some) fire departments change out their fire-truck batteries, huge ones known as "D-9," also used in tour buses, every two years as a safety precaution. Those big batteries have years of life in them. String a number together and you have a great power supply! If your well motor draws too much power on the start, there is a ramping device known as a "soft-start" that limits the inrush current and extends the start ramp time, so that you do not overload the inverter. Once you figure it all out, you can have a nice system that makes you independent of either the generator (which may not start or work) or the power grid. All that said, I am still a fan of the coal stove. Coal is cheap enough, it does not spoil, you can light it up with a little diesel on top and a match, and it will produce great concentrated heat. You can bank down a coal fire to keep it running at a low output overnight, then toss on more coal in the morning. I saw a mansion down in Newport, Rhode Island (USA) where the owners were terrified of a coal boiler fire, so they built the coal furnace in a separate, remote building and ran steam lines underground to the mansion. No fires at all in the house! That system worked great, but you do have to trudge out to the boiler room to keep it operating (unless you build a sheltered hallway out to it!).
  24. 2 points
    The extra energy required certainly wont be by renewables as they are only a tiny percentage of world energy production. WTF. Have you actually had a look at the data? How much of new generation this year will be renewables? Look at the Lazard analysis at the cost of renewables. Look at the lead Spain is taking. Look how much of Scotlands electricity comes from wind. Look at the percentage of cars sold are EV's in the UK, Canada and California. The elephant in the room is those in the fossil fuel religion that don't accept the facts that renewables are increasingly becoming the cheapest source of electricity and EV's are rapidly becoming better than ICE vehicles. Come on it's the 21st century, fossil fuel was the king of the last century that's gone, now the new king is renewables. If the west doesn't keep up it will become the under dog to those that do go with the best technology.
  25. 2 points
    Just a small interjection here, if you don't mind: The differences in society and the populations involved factor heavily into the points about health care. The VA reference is absolutely valid in the U.S., but in relatively small countries with little global military commitments, not so much. Please continue, your conversation is fleshing out some good details. I don't know if they can be applied each to the other, but they are good points nonetheless.
  26. 2 points
    I think a lot of women in Europe simply have other interests they would rather pursue than raising children. Also, a lot of women are delaying having children in favour of career building and some delay it too long. You're free to blame radical feminism for that. I probably would if I thought it's appropriate to lay blame. Also, I think reproductive problems are on the rise at least in certain parts of Europe. Not sure about the factors at play but there's probably a multitude of them. Isn't the "terrible world" argument old? I so thought it was.
  27. 2 points
    I don't deny any of questions / points you raise. I think we agree on more than we disagree. Where we seem to disagree is that you seem to be leaning towards "zero sum thinking", whereas I am the opposite. I honestly believe that regulated economic growth (regulated so as to avoid things like child labour, trade imbalances i.e. things any reasonable person can agree is horrible) through the free market and innovation can lift people out of poverty. Everywhere I have travelled in Africa and South America I have encountered people that want to work and make a living for their families. That means the basis is alrigth. There is something to build on. Now, I am not naive - the world will not change over nigth and nor will peoples attitude.
  28. 2 points
    When was the last time the dow jones closed down 800 points, and the nasdaq 300? As i pointed out in the first post, many fundamental principles of a healthy economy are lacking in the USA. First and most importantly is science. Even within our political sphere, religion ends up dictating a large percentage of how the government is run. Philosophically speaking, if a state,or society, are choosing political leaders based on religion, rather then economic and scientific abilities, then consequently, such officials, who are campaigning on religious principles,fail at executing proper strategies of governance. A stong economy demands proper public private partnership, but the private will destroy itself, and the public will too. Both parties must be intelligent and capable. A weak pillar will only allow the place to collapse. Although the US has just as much potential as every other nation, its degraded culture and systems will surely interfere in its true prosperity. For example, Immigration. Immigration has and always will be the back bone to developing societies. Without human migration, the world would have been even more fractuered then it is now. Racism is a sign of a weak and fragile economy. Any human being who feels entitled to any one portion of planet earth has another thing coming. WE have become so ignorant about what life actually is. This is a sign of a weak economy. obviously we have pride in our homeland, and our families home, but we become complacent inside our own boring culture. Until you understand that human beings are human beings are k, no matter how they speak or look. Diversity is a precious element of a strong economy.
  29. 1 point
  30. 1 point
  31. 1 point
    Some people would look at those first photos and think you've started a junk yard! Others see...potential! Some real jewels, dude. Let the stripping begin!
  32. 1 point
    Scaled out! STC 10 CLK0 at ave 24.93, BTC 7 at CLZ0 ave 32.40, for a reasonable profit. Maybe too soon, but it's a wild market! I'll sleep better at least
  33. 1 point
  34. 1 point
  35. 1 point
    Thanks oil prospector. I am going back to flipping a coin
  36. 1 point
    It always looks bleakest before a turn around. Every bit of news in regard to oil gets overblown in the futures market. Long 8 WTI contracts with 8 54 puts shorted against them. Mar contract expires on Feb 20th. Plenty of time. Huge imbalance in the options market suggests higher prices for WTI. Expecting a sideways trading pattern for the rest of the week.
  37. 1 point
    Not at all what I'm trying to communicate. I am trying to point out that without the short-option strategy a buy and hold strategy would be in a loss at this time. Net profit is $1,380. Not "evaporated". Just bought these contracts this week. I have no intention on selling them until after options expiration. It's all about the options. Fixate on those. Retail traders fixate on the up and downs. I fixate on the "time" since it's so much more valuable. When the options expire I ditch the contracts. The contracts are just a vessel.
  38. 1 point
    Today's update... ES plus a few CL scalps... To add... it was a tough day... more trades than I care to make.
  39. 1 point
    Dec 18 Gary, I've been following you and the Wolf Pack for a few months, very interesting discussions. Qq on your strategy as you close Jan options positions. You mentioned rolling over to 2 short contracts in March here -- in an earlier post, I thought you had mentioned going short 2 March contracts to hedge going long 2 April contracts and selling the usual puts/calls against the April contracts. The March shorts would let you get into April longs even though the current price is well above your standard entry point, $54. From your more recent posts, it looks like you're just going short the March contracts, and not taking any positions in April after closing your Jan positions. Why not use shorts on March contracts to hedge long April positions so you can start to earn on the options? What am I missing?
  40. 1 point
    Greetings Gary and RRH . Miss you very much Gary and thanks to Red’s effort I found you at last . Something is not right with investing. Com when they have moderators in collusion with ignorant traders. Some kind of hidden agender or just bad management when they believe the ignorant and forgo the truly excellent . It’s their loss .
  41. 1 point
    Dec 4 2019 Calculation of the Feb Options Strategy Profit: Bought 2 Feb contracts at $53.00 Sold to Open 2 Feb 54 puts at $4.22 Bought to Close 2 Feb 54 puts at $1.05 Profit per contract: $4.22-1.05= $3.17 Sold to Open 2 Feb 58 calls at $3.00. Target: 75 cents. Currently $1.82 Feb contract currently $56.89 Purchase Price - Put trade profit= Net Purchase Price. $53.00-3.17= 49.83 Subtract the unrealized profit from the short-58 call of $3.00-1.82 that is still working and the Net Purchase Price becomes $49.83-1.18 or 48.65 The Feb contract is currently at $56.89 so the profit per contract at this time is $56.89-48.65 or $8.24/barrel/contract or $16,480 for both Feb contracts so far.
  42. 1 point
    Before oil humans may have had a brief vibrant life and then died at an average age of 35. You can celebrate the winning. I’ll take the losing with all its faults. As far as Iran goes ask them to act like Sweden and they to could join the free world instead of having to cultivate relationships with Russia, China, N Korea, Syria and other countries where humans have few rights and are dominated by a handful. Democracies are far from perfect and are still a work in progress. Our leaders are rejected on a routine basis. But hey, there is hope eternal for more cooperation and common sense. Just being able to type this on a public forum without fear should be a worldwide right. One that Iran and those other countries don’t have.
  43. 1 point
    The oil price drop to $50 last October 2018 thru Jan 2019 and subsequent rebound has nothing to do with your reasoning. ALL that price action was the algorithms from program trading where oil mirrored the S&P 500 index. The correlation is obvious. S&P dropped due to Fed action and shortly after oil folowrd tick by tick.
  44. 1 point
    What if Humanity did not lust after power and money..... Is essentially what this drivel is saying. Reason people want equity stake for capital is because they want CONTROL. Because they all think they know better than YOU, or just want the POWER. They think if they have money(hard work, inherited, or someone else's AKA investment portfolios), they are superior. It is how humanity is wired. Yes, world would be wonderful if it was a Utopia. It is not and never will be.
  45. 1 point
    Whenever there is news on Crude even when its fake news Crude prices go up, they are always looking for a lifeline even it is a tattered rope. The 1.2 Mill Prod cut, I think wont be a reality. Once that sinks in, Crude prices will sink. So Saudis says they cut 800k. Fine. But the other 400k is problematic, first of all certain countries like IRAN may get an exception, and so will Russia until the winter is over. Russias 200k Prod cut, cant be a reality until March 2019, due to the severe cold in their Siberian oil fields, cutting production now would freeze their pipes.
  46. 1 point
    So, you're saying prices won't touch yesterday's high and will start drifting down towards 50 today itself ?
  47. 1 point
    Moral of the story: Everybody stop bashing each other simply because of what country people come from.
  48. 1 point
    Jan, Great story. Really. I have some good ones too from small towns in the Southern states. However, this is not exclusively American. I have seen people that didn't know where their next pay-check was going to come from share a meal with their neighbour, because the Neighbour was in an equally bad position. You get this type of kindness all over the world. Seriously.
  49. 1 point
    Ah, but dispassionate is so out. Hyperemotional is in. And we do it voluntarily. What a ridiculous species. But lovable, let's not forget. We're lovable.
  50. 1 point
    Yeah. I live in Vietnam where everything but everything comes in plastic bags. You see them floating down the rivers and out to sea, full of crap. And there isn't an alternative to putting your stuff in plastic bags here yet. In the first apartment we had in Saigon there were two bathrooms. I installed an electric shower in each one. They weren't cheap and they cost an arm and a leg to run. In the next apartment we had I had to install 3 electric water heaters one for the kitchen, and one for each bedroom en-suite. Now the cost of running them was an arm and two legs. And then the price of oil and gas fell by quite a bit, so I was looking forward to a bit of a financial respite. Not so much. The govt hiked the price of electric massively. I am aware of the economics behind doing it, but it smarted a lot. So, when we moved to a new house, I insisted on having a solar water heater fitted on the roof. No more electric water heaters and a significantly lower electric bill. And the thing is that nearly every new house where we live has a solar water heater in the roof now. And because we live in the tropics the solar water heaters work very well indeed. And the cost for a reasonable solar heater and storage tanks is around 700 dollars. Now with the sunshine we het here you would think that there would be solar panels every roof. Nope. Too expensive and ...... Well the government taxes oil and gas and charges for electricity, too solar electricity is a low priority. And despite the plastic bag problem, recycling is very big in Vietnam, There are old ladies who go through the bins at dawn and take out all the beer and soft drinks cans, all the plastic bottles, all of the paper and card, all of the steel and aluminium and sell it. Every beer can has a price. By contrast, the Western Province of the Solomon Islands, where I worked for a year, has a beer can problem. There are about a million discarded beer cans in and around the town of Munda. No kidding. But what to do with them? The scrap merchants wont take them because it is not cost effective to transport them to the scrap yards on Guadalcanal. And anyway the seas around the Western Province are awash with crashed aircraft, ships, bombs propellant and so on. Guadalcanal itself has an area off the coast called Iron Bottom Sound, so called because it is full of sunken ships and vehicles. Aquatic life in the seas around the Solomons are showing levels of detectable heavy metals like cadmium as well as mercury which has been known for years. Water is is short supply there at times because of a lack of decent storage tanks. The biggest hotel on the island either burns its waste, or takes it outside the reef and dumps it in deep water, something they have been doing for years. And on the island of Funafuti, Tuvalu, where I sent a month a couple of years ago, they import drinking water in plastic bottles from Fiji - hundreds of thousands a year. But, Funafuti has massive annual rainfall. So why don't they reserve the rainwater, filter it and use it? In the Solomons and Funafuti its because "no one will pay for it". Which is similar to the unexploded ordnance problem in Vietnam. Little has been done to clear up the bombs and bullets because.... No one will pay for it. Although Vietnam is spending billions on infrastructure development, there are still huge areas of bomb contaminated ground. Its the same the whole world over, its the poor what gets the blame, its the rich what gets the pleasure Aint it all a blooming shame......