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  1. 9 points
    These aren't mutually exclusive. Highway traffic could be way up, but city traffic and local commuting can be way down. Given that statistics say 95% of all driving occurs within 25 miles from home that lowered home driving for whatever percentage of the population is unemployed, underemployed or telecommuting is certainly going to impact demand. Then we have Airlines, whose revenues are down 85% and have been cancelling every flight they possibly can get away with. That's a lot of missing consumption in the aggregate.
  2. 7 points
    Malek is a very serious fellow who does nothing but look at this sort of thing. He has a point: major companies are discarding projects, slowing down, changing course. Total and BP are moving toward renewables projects very rapidly. Chevron is idling. Exxon has pumped the brakes on Guyana. Suriname needs some time. All work in Namibia is going to take a while. And that's it for new finds. When you really consider that the CAPEX on new finds is at $1T deficit, along with the idea of emerging countries trying to go renewables, you can actually go along with Malek's projection, providing you've had a drink or two. Imagine the world starting back up again. There's pent-up demand for travel, production, manufacturing. The number of countries that can remotely consider the concept of going full renewables by 2035 is ridiculously small. The number of states in the U.S. that are situated to go renewables is even small. California is the leader only because of Tesla. Texas is much better situated to go renewables and is at a good percentage already. Not only that but it's built on a stable part of the country--the craton--while Ca is built on seismically active parts that came in from the ocean and were sutured together by collision, prone to quake and also burn. Anyway, I indeed believe that there will be a substantial crude oil shortage, probably sometime about 2022. I know of some pretty savvy operators who are shooting for that date. Who really believes that the world is going to be stable? For 75 years the U.S. has protected a very primitive, greedy, careless KSA--because we needed the oil. We don't now. They were never fun to be around so what's the point in taking their insults, turning a blind eye to their dismemberments, offering any protection whatsoever. The Emirates saw the writing on the scrolls and signed on with Israel. If the Saudis knew what was good for them they'd do the same thing. Sides are being chosen: China-Iran, for example. Mr. McKenzie can tell us the number of acres of wind and solar that Ca will need to go renewables. My bet is 5M acres. Multiply that around the world--must be a billion acres. Imagine where all that material is going to come from. Lithium is readily available as a carbonate (spoduline) but getting to it requires a heavy duty mining operation. Harvesting lithium-rich brine is slow. So far, cobalt and nickel are needed. To multiply this nascent industry by a magnitude necessary to get to even 50% renewable energy/EV transport would require trillions of dollars. What about India--poor but wise, populated with 1.5 B people? Take a lot of emerging countries. When lithium doubles in price, and cobalt and nickel and cadmium triple and then become scarce, tell me just how rapidly this new green deal is going to take over. My point: don't count old Malek out.
  3. 6 points
    Some decade ago or more there was this big blackout in California and the factories there were crying for generators, as they were out of business with no hope on the horizon. I had a surplus gen-set of 335 KW driven by a CAT engine so I looked for a buyer out there. I found out that there are two types of gen-sets: those of the 49 States that are built to one exhaust standard, and a 50th version sold only in California that is built to meet CARB [Cali Air Resources Board] standard. The 49-Stateversion cannot be installed in Cali, not then, not now, not ever. I really don't have any sympathy for California. Those people have installed a govt bureaucracy that dictates to them even what they cannot do in an emergency. You need power - even emergency power, when the govt utility cannot deliver any? Too bad, so sad - you go without, unless your gen-set meets their special requirements. Don't even think about buying a used but pristine gen-set in the used-machinery market, you cannot bring it into the State, the unseen, unannounced, unelected bureaucrats won't let you make your own. Better for you to go bankrupt, close the doors, put the workforce on the dole, than to run your own gen-set for a week. What a lovely place. California: it seriously sucks. Cali needs to go through a sustained period of extreme hardship. It needs to internally collapse. It should never get a bailout from the Fed Govt from Mr. Biden [although I predict it will]. The place needs to look long and hard in the mirror to realize the monster they have wrought. Only then, will it fire the ideologues and expel the crazy Leftists from that government.
  4. 6 points
    Well, Since 1990, every single year, oil consumption has grown by half a million barrels per year. Was a small blip in 2008... Covid will put another blip in there, but that is ALL it will be, a blip. Is world population growing or shrinking? Growing Yes. Does MOST of the world NOT drive currently? Yes. Do they want to drive? Yes. Does most of the world want to use plastics/glues/paint etc? Yes. To displace 500,000 barrels of oil a day, how many EV's per year EXTRA do you have to produce to keep DEMAND flat? EDIT Math fart... used 20 gallons gas/barrel when a barrel is 42 and you get approx ~50 gallons of gas/barrel... Gee, simple math time: 30mpg, average driver drives 30miles per day... 1 car 1 gallon per day in rough terms. 500,000 x ~50 gallons gas/barrel = 25 MILLION EV's need to be produced in year one, 50Million EV's produced in year 2... etc Million in year 3.... There is no way in this world EV's, especially in developing world who do not have electricity in all their homes of sufficient capacity will go EV. Who is the biggest user of Oil going forward? Developing world. Its not the USA, Europe who are driving the oil market with their steady or declining populations.
  5. 6 points
    Above all excellent points. I have nothing to add except that the world is a very large place, and right now it's powered primarily by NG and oil. Additionally, the OPEC countries are dangerously close to collapsing into bankruptcy, and when that happens primitive people get very desperate and do strange and unpredictable things. Summary: I don't expect most of the countries that make up OPEC to remain stable governments. I think they will fall into disarray. And that chaos will ensue. I believe Iran will likely attack KSA in some way. I suspect there will be another Israeli war. I think at some point the world wakes up to the fact that a new virus was allowed to go unheralded into the lands far from the Middle Kingdom, and that China will be isolated, dependent upon Iran for oil and willing to give nuclear quid pro quo to Iran. Somewhere in that mess fits Russia. I'm not arguing with a single wise thing said by the folks above. I'm just saying that when a person has only one thing to sell in order to survive, and when that one thing becomes near worthless, the person producing it becomes desperate. That is happening very quickly to OPEC. They are going after each other's meat. Right now, KSA is bluster and bully tactics. The minute they are attacked by a seriously smart penetration (Iran), they will fold their tents and whimper like scolded dogs. The world is changing very rapidly, in many ways. Switching from fossil fuels to renewables is a major change, and I also think it will happen to some degree. But the best laid plans often go awry. I don't think we'll even be able to recognize our world in five years. And I don't think it will have a solar farm on every hill. For the record, I sell transmission rights across my property to one of the largest farms in America. I don't think much of wind energy. It costs too much to produce a single windmill, the blades deteriorate, they use incredible amounts of rare earth elements and huge amounts of CO2 producing cement, and then they wear out--wind is, onshore, a joke. Contrariwise, I think very highly of solar and believe it to be worthy of extensive use. What I personally have problems with are whole ESS sites with no natural gas backup, because I trust the concept of grid inertia and I don't personally think you can synthetically simulate that on a fail-proof platform. National Grid has failed at this and they are the Gold Standard in renewables, globally, though NextEra is the best here in the U.S. and I don't know of their work with synthetic grid inertia. Be fun to watch. Thanks to all who offered their input. I always learn a great deal from you.
  6. 5 points
    Democrats have a short memory, when it suits them. All kinds of people, Trump and even Warren Buffet included, have talked about tax loopholes for years. They have talked about what is available for a business or business person to utilize to cut their tax bills and how inherently unfair this is to lower income people. As usual, the little group of people responsible for the laws, tax laws in this case, is congress. I.e. until Congress changes the tax laws, then wealthy people will continue to follow current laws and take any and all deductions available. As for carried interest, no lawmaker wants to touch that particular clause/law, which they themselves created, since it provides a means for them to defer "income" for collection at a later date. There are also a number of tools offered on Wall Street that allow perfectly legal money laundering to take place. Short term financial index ETFs can be used for this purpose. Trump will simply point this out in the debate and then switch the focus to Joe and Hunter and their shady deals in Ukraine and China. Trump wins, because he is following U.S. Law. Biden loses because the American People have a very low tolerance for payoffs by foreign entities, especially Russia and China. I know Ukraine is not really Russia, but does your neighbor?
  7. 5 points
    If you accept the scientific consensus that climate change is a problem and that CO2 from fossil fuels is a big part of the problem, then this order makes sense from that perspective. I know that several of you guys do not accept these assertions, but it's not Newsom's fault that he does not agree with you. Because California is such a large market for cars, a California rule has a potential multiplier effect on the ICE industry, so this ruling is may in theory reduce the number of ICE vehicles in the world, eventually. I am however concerned that he made this ruling based on climate change. In California, we have a much bigger local problem, and that is air pollution. Our combination of local climate, geography, and population distribution causes the worst air pollution in the US, by far, and ICE vehicles are a really major contributor. Newsom should not have made the "save the planet" argument. He should stayed focused on our very obvious and very real local California problem. Gasoline cars are no longer as large a percentage of the problem as they once were, but this executive order covers all ICE vehicles including heavy diesel trucks. The argument that our existing electrical grid would not be able to handle that many EVs is weak. The order applies to 2035. That gives us 15 years to get the grid upgraded.
  8. 5 points
    Car Traffic 90% Flights 65% Cruise ships? near zero More than just the immediate problem with saying "the highway is busy so demand has returned" is the fact that 80% of my friends are no longer commuting to work, and whereas many of them drove up to 1 hour to work 5 days a week...now its 0 hours for 0 days a week. Some companies have called the full workforce back, but many are deciding they're not going to 100% in office ever again (many decided this before COVID) and so it eliminates a massive use of gasoline.
  9. 5 points
    ceo People are apt to be surprised 12 to 18 months out at what will emerge from lower cost US shale plays. Just as the steep downturn in 2014/15 prompted a ferocious level of innovation and adaption, numerous incremental advances continue to be employed in the field with little fanfare. XTO has 2 wells in the Bakken (Bear Creek field) that each utilized over 800,000 thousand barrels of water for the completions. One has over 400,000 bbls first year, second 470,000 barrels production and is still flowing (no Artificial Lift). The newer HVFR products are enabling long term underground fluid retention which is greatly boosting hydrocarbon flow towards the wellbore. This clearly indicates that the engineers have successfully controlled the frac geometry around these 10,000 foot laterals to the extent almost 1 million barrels of water has opened up and scoured WAY more of the rock volume without horizontal or vertical break through. That is an amazing leap forward in the use of far field (and near wellbore) diversion, pump volume and pressure controls, and precise real time monitoring. Not only will XTO continue to apply these methods to the Bakken, but adaption and adoption to other plays will be attempted ... tailored, as always, to the uber heterogeneous nature of the rock. This 'merger' of Liberty and Schlumberger completion services will undoubtedly be found to have its purpose tied into the successful introduction of pressure exchange cartridges from a company called Energy Recovery. Long story short, ER has unsuccessfully tried to introduce a 12 cartridge completion missile called the Vorteq so as to nearly eliminate wear and tear on the expensive displacement pumps pumping highly corrosive frac fluids. With ER now claiming that individual cartridges can and do work, (Liberty and Schlumberger have worked closely with ER), the anticipated rollout of this hardware should cut costs of completions down significantly. Going forward, companies may use smaller, cheaper centrifugal pumps by which the high pressure can be applied to the lower-pressured frac fluid. Furthermore, the deployment of natgas fueled electric frac fleets continues apace. Providing a fuel savings of ~$250/$300 thousand per well, legacy operators (cough, Haliburton, cough) are in a vulnerable position. In a somewhat related matter - that is, lower costs for unconventional production going forward - the recent news about EQT possibly acquiring XTO's 800,000 leased acreage and over 350 producing wells for $750 million will be a watershed event if it comes to pass. (Sounds like EQT released the info to pressure XTO to act). Buying 350 producing gas wells at $2 million per - acreage and a pipeline interest thrown in - is a complete steal by any standard. The fact that land swapping may ensue (contiguous acreage is worth its weight in gold in the Appalachian Basin), virtually guarantees viable production at sub $2/mmbtu ... just as Seneca/NFG has claimed when it 'stole' SWEPI's north central Pennsylvania properties awhile back. The global and domestic competitors, the alternative industries fighting low cost US oil and gas, the Pearl Clutchers who forsee doom and gloom around every corner will AGAIN be stunned at the incredible tenacity, the resilience of these ever so tough upstream operating companies.
  10. 4 points
    Ive been watching the video media commentary, it is quite apparent there is not one commentator who has a grasp of a P&L statement. Trumps taxes have been leaked only in part, nothing has been released on cash flows. The lawsuits that will arrive from this leak stagger the mind. What a day in America.
  11. 4 points
    I invite you to try New England. We routinely get storms here that knock out say 700,000 customers for seven to ten days. The prediction is that, in the next Category 5 hurricane to clobber New England, some 75% of the tree cover in the storm path will topple. I chatted with a State FEMA manager in Connecticut on this and asked him just how much, in volume, that rubble would be. He estimated 2,000,000 semi-trailer dump loads. And how many of those special extended dump trailers are actually in the State? Less than 50. OK, so what happens to all those fallen trees? Answer: they will be left in place, to rot. And, of course, the entire electric grid, down to the last wire, will be scrapped. How long do you think it will take to completely rebuild an entire State's grid? From scratch? And where will the manpower come from to do that, assuming you have the materials? Does anybody understand the magnitude of the problem?
  12. 4 points
    So far, the death rate in US is 1 in 1600 people, or 0.016%, with probably half the pop'n already having been infected. I suspect that US is already over the halfway mark overall. Have you noticed that we never hear about prevelance numbers? Only number of new positive cases and total deaths, that can only go up. I will be very surprised if total deaths in US exceed 350,000 by this time next year. My understanding is that the death rate is between 0.02 and 0.03%, only slightly worse than a bad flu season. Of course, covid is much more contagious than the flu, hence the horror images we see on the TV as it does it's destruction so much more rapidly, but my guess is that in 5 years time, most of the excess death will be to suicide and missed medical appointments, not covid.
  13. 4 points
    On the contrary, the rest of the thinking planet fears a communist United States. Except for China and Russia. Sure, the rest of the Western world is fed the same left-wing syndicated news about Trump that you get, but those of us in the know are planning to dump the USD if Biden wins. Indeed, there are record short positions on it thanks to Biden leading the mainstream polls. The only thing keeping the dollar alive is the fact that the polls were incredibly wrong last time. If the Dem's $3.4trn Heroes Act passes, as well as the "Green New Deal", there will be a lot of spending and no way to pay for it. As I said, the US will lose credibility where it matters most, ie: with the international bond markets. Tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals will only worsen things in this age of mobile capital. If you want to know what the smart money is thinking about the fate of America under Biden, look no further than Portland or New York. Think BLM/Antifa. A Biden victory will not stop them, only embolden them further. That is what is spooking international investors. Out of control lefties that may just have the numbers. You know that I would love to see the US go green a little faster, but your trade deficit has just topped $1 trillion per annum and you are screwed if oil price not reach $50 by Xmas and the Northern Hemisphere has another warm winter which would bankrupt your LNG companies as well. You need to try look through the eyes of an international investor, not those of the "sheeple"?
  14. 4 points
    In all candor, I would likely pass on that one. It is an interesting suggestion. I would say that one large difference is that Patton was truly a patriot, he was seriously into the mindset of Victory by Americans. The thing about Mr. Trump is that, I suspect, he was not loved by his family members, and had a difficult, distant relationship with his own father. There were these sibling rivalries and The Donald lost out. So a lot of what The Donald does and says is to gain approval, indeed adulation. Patton did not need nor even desire adulation, although he was happy enough to have it when it came his way. Patton wanted to defeat America's enemies. He was totally focused on that. There is an old saying about Patton: he didn't want his troops to love him. He wanted them to fight for him. And they did. That, my chums, is Leadership with a capital "L".
  15. 4 points
    Perfect example of this is the whole PPP program from a few months ago. It could have been set up through SBA etc. to directly funnel funds to companies but they structured the program so businesses have to use a bank. Surprise, surprise once again the banks get their cut first. Don't even get me started on student loans...
  16. 4 points
    ^ Well, a Biden win is going to be cause for a lot of glee for OPEC, because with the loss of our 5 mbo/d from the Delaware Basin, they can once again manipulate the market the same way they've done it for the last 3/4 of a century. I mean, this is not a maybe anything. If Joe Biden wins, the AOC Squad will hold him to his campaign pledge to "ban fracking on governmental lands," which in NM would just destroy the economics. The very sweetest spot of the Delaware are on governmental land. Give it some leeway. Say it will only knock 4 mbo/d off U.S. oil production. That's still massive. Even without a Biden win, we're looking down the barrel of a substantial oil shortage in 2022. Couldn't LNG fill that void? No, of course not. Not without shale oil drilling, because that's where the pop-off gas comes from. The pure dry gas basins contribute a pittance compared to the NG coming out of the Permian Basin as giveaway gas. (Attribution: An article to this point was penned by a good writer on OP.com. It was on my mind but then I read the article. I should have pointed this out first and foremost.)
  17. 4 points
    But here's the difference, Tom: The Americans simply pay you for the goods, they have no interest in enslaving you. Notwithstanding some Trumpists that think in terms of trade wars, the reality is that America is a merchant nation. The idea of being a merchant is deeply engrained in American culture, and Americans are found around the globe, setting up enterprises, hiring the locals, and selling product. When the Americans arrive in say the Congo and seek to purchase Mahogany, all they want is to be able to buy it and pay for it. Nobody is doing some coup on the President and putting the workers in chains, with gulag camps set up for dissenters. The Chinese are perfectly happy to do that with the Tibetans, for example, and with the Sri Lankans, for another example. So you do have this quite qualitative difference.
  18. 4 points
    Well, here's the thing: this becomes a case of "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" And it is beyond peradventure that Entho came first, with his quite brash attacks against anyone and everyone and especially anything American. It was all uncalled for. So now what you have is the legacy effect: a continual back-and-forth, with comments being posted that Mr. Entho disagrees with, so he snipes at the poster. I would remind you that Ward Smith, one apparent protagonist, as put a blocker on Ethno's posts so the sniping is unseen by him. Meanwhile, the rest of us have to put up with it. If a forum member comes to the conclusion that a post, whether by Mr. Smith or Mr. Nolan or another, is somehow "conspiracy theory" or otherwise "anti-science" then fine, the post speaks for itself, does not need outside help. So just leave it alone. If you don't like it, don't respond to it. Sniping at the poster with immature belittlement accomplishes nothing. For example, Mr. Ethno has called me senile. I do not propose to make any response at all; let that comment stand on its own merits. If others here think of me as senile, hey such is life. On the other hand, if others conclude that Mr. Ethno is off the wall calling me senile, then that reflects back onto him and his level of maturity. Either way, not my problem. The problem with Mr. Ethno is that he brings his own frustrations with the internal failures of his life to the present, onto the backs of this Forum. It is not the fault of the forum that Mr. Ethno is unemployed, and with no prospects of ever being employed, nor that he is reduced to living off the avails of a rich father-in-law. Those are his burdens to bear, not mine, not yours. I am not offering him a job, and neither are you, I suspect. Her is going to have to sort his own life out. I recall once having a discussion with a learned psychologist, who observed to me: "Dependency fosters rage." I think there is a lot of truth in that. Ethno becoming dependent on others is fuelling his rages on this Forum. I stand by my original post: this place is not for frustrated 12-year-olds to vent; so knock it off, it is tiring.
  19. 4 points
    Actually some of us do. If I divide all my investments* not including the house and pensions by the number of years (19) to my statutory retirement age it well exceeds my net income for the same period from my middle income job. I drive a 12 year old Toyota Corolla 1.6L Hatch which was my late Fathers. * combo of working in oil for several years in the good times, good investment decisions, some inheritance and being a right tight @rse😁
  20. 4 points
    ^ Trust me, I've seen it. I moved out of California last December--lived a mile from the beach but had fires south, north and east of my house the day we left. Beautiful state just totally ruined by government. Despite that, I don't want to see the state fail. And I think that the totally green energy plan they have is very likely to bankrupt the whole place. Seriously. The overall plan to use nothing but solar and wind feeding into lithium-ion battery dumps that feed out electricity as needed, with a couple million EV's reversing energy to take care of excess demand on the grid during demand surge is just a beautiful concept, but like most elaborate systems involving a total paradigm shift, it should be implemented piecemeal. The way they're going about it is dangerous and may either work, or it may result in loss of lives and horrendous consequences.
  21. 4 points
    What is the exhaust composition of ethanol? How much mercury or aluminum or formaldehyde are you willing to inject into your veins? 10mcg? Enthalpic, You show that you can not do even basic research. You could had viewed what happens with ethanol instead of trying to use it as a tool to discredit...that is what trolls do. By the way, I had a Biology Lab instructor who had to go to the surgeons 5 times to remove cancerous growths on her hands caused by the dissection lab specimens soaked in formaldehyde. (Remember, I took all the same University classes as Pre-Med students.)
  22. 4 points
    In 1905, gasoline automobiles were not economically viable. Only the rich used them and they were basically toys. The entire equestrian infrastructure laughed at them, and a substantial percentage of jobs (livery stables, horse dealers, hackers, farriers, and many more) were devoted to horses. In 1908, Henry ford introduced the Model T. By 1925, horses ware basically gone from major cities.
  23. 4 points
    Newsom is an asshole. He strikes me as the wanna-be poster boy for the green-control-the-masses-and-take-all-the-money idiots. He started his meteoric rise up in the world when then San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown appointed him to the city's Parking and Traffic Commission. Gavin Newsom (Excerpt) His father was an advocate for otters and the family had one as a pet.[9] While Newsom later reflected that he did not have an easy childhood,[10] he attended kindergarten and first grade at Ecole Notre Dame Des Victoires, a French American bilingual school in San Francisco. He eventually transferred because of severe dyslexia that still affects him. His dyslexia has made it difficult for him to write, spell, read and work with numbers.[10] Throughout his schooling, Newsom had to rely on a combination of audiobooks, informal verbal instruction, and digests, and to this day, Newsom prefers to interpret documents and reports through audio.[11] He attended third through fifth grades at Notre Dame des Victoires, where he was placed in remedial reading classes. In high school, Newsom played basketball and baseball and graduated from Redwood High School in 1985. Newsom was a shooting guard in basketball and an outfielder in baseball. His skills placed him on the cover of the Marin Independent Journal.[12] Tessa Newsom worked three jobs to support Gavin and his sister Hilary Newsom Callan, who is the president of the PlumpJack Group, named after the opera Plump Jack composed by family friend Gordon Getty. In an interview with The San Francisco Chronicle, his sister recalled Christmas holidays when their mother told them there wouldn't be any gifts.[12] Tessa opened their home to foster children, instilling in Newsom the importance of public service.[12][13] His father's finances were strapped in part because of his tendency to give away his earnings.[13] Newsom worked several jobs in high school to help support his family.[2] Newsom attended Santa Clara University on a partial baseball scholarship, where he graduated in 1989 with a B.S. in political science. Newsom was a left-handed pitcher for Santa Clara, but he threw his arm out after two years and hasn't thrown a baseball since.[14] He lived in the Alameda Apartments, which he later compared to living in a hotel. He later reflected on his education fondly, crediting the Jesuit approach of Santa Clara that he said has helped him become an independent thinker who questions orthodoxy. While in school, Newsom spent a semester studying abroad in Rome.[15] Newsom's aunt was married to Ron Pelosi, the brother-in-law of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.[10]
  24. 4 points
    Enthalpic, Take the vaccine. Sign up for one of the Covid trials and get paid money. If Covid worries you, wear a mask (ha!) and social distance and stay secluded and ruin your own life. Don't force me to. I refuse to live my life as a dictated slave. I know the media and the government lie out the ying yang. You trust the media and the government with your life. You desire their mandates and authoritarian control. Go ahead and OBEY. I'll be 70 soon and have many friends in my age group. We aren't worried about Covid. One friend got it. He had 3 Covid tests when he went to an Emergency Center because it was hard to breathe. The tests came up negative, but they classified him as a Covid case. He went to a local Doctor (Dr. Ivette C. Lozano) who prescribed Hydrozychloroquine and he was feeling great after a few days. He then took a 4th Covid test so he could return to work. That test came up negative. For real, here are a couple of my friends at a restaurant. There were about 10 people there, all living life like normal, not wearing masks even though they are mandated by the state. Not social distancing. The fella on the right is in his 70's. The Covid guy who I just mentioned was there. There is nothing wrong with a person getting sick or being exposed to microbes. It is part of the natural human condition which facilitates the immune system. Enthralpic, Be a slave to the whims of tyrants. Not me.
  25. 4 points
    Got back from Ft. Stockton Saturday 11pm. Left Thursday 11am and cranked the bus to 75mph and got 5.5 mpg average, I did my share to help the oil industry. Peoria to Ft. Stockton round trip was approx. 2500 miles. Cheapest diesel was at Grand Casino along Interstate 40 and 35 where they meet. 1.799. Back here north of Peoria 2.19 to 2.27
  26. 4 points
    This system works for a few years until one day you wake up and no one knows how to do anything as you have exported all the trade jobs away. From the trade jobs come the offshoot new industries who invent new products and who create the engineers who design new products as they KNOW all the screwups as they have knowledge of the hands on from those around them. And then this pesky thing called war happens and you are utterly screwed as you have a few ancient people who have design knowledge with hands on experience, but no young people. But the young did not grow up with access to free "junk" to learn the ins and outs of how NOT to design stuff and likewise do not know how to build a production line. USA is currently in this position. There are still a couple regions in USA which have manufacturing(Midwest) and have junk yards where you can get your hands on cheap stuff to learn, create, and build a new business cheaply, but otherwise if you do not live in this region, you have zilch. USA is in for a bad couple of decades unless this trade knowledge is rebuilt and the only way this happens is a reduction in imports which takes decades to rebuild production lines. PS: Average size of a house outside of dense cities in Japan is ~1500 square feet, which is exactly what every USA house used to be until last 40 years when all of the manufacturing trade jobs were shipped overseas for short term profit with the advent of the Petro dollar in the late 70's. Only difference is Japan has majority of their population living in very dense cities with small apartments dropping their average house size whereas the USA does not unless you are in a rare USA dense inner city and which case... the size for living quarters is roughly the same. Who knew, people, are people everywhere...
  27. 4 points
    What should be surprising is that this strangely specific and continuously repeated message—that we will not go “back to normal” until we get a vaccine in 18 months—has no scientific basis whatsoever. Medical researchers have already conceded that a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 may not even be possible, pointing to the inability of researchers to develop any kind of immunization against previous coronavirus outbreaks, like SARS or MERS. But even if such a vaccine were possible, serious concerns remain about the safety of developing, testing and delivering such an “amazing vaccine” to “the entire world” in this remarkably short timeframe. Even proponents of vaccine development openly worry that the rush to vaccinate billions of people with a largely untested, experimental coronavirus vaccine will itself present grave risks to the public. One of these risks involves “disease enhancement.” It has been known for over a decade that vaccination for some viral infections—including coronaviruses—actually enhances susceptibility to viral infection or even causes infections in healthy vaccine recipients. ANTHONY FAUCI: Now, the issue of safety. Something that I want to make sure the American public understand: It’s not only safety when you inject somebody and they get maybe an idiosyncratic reaction, they get a little allergic reaction, they get pain. There’s safety associated. “Does the vaccine make you worse?” And there are diseases in which you vaccinate someone, they get infected with what you’re trying to protect them with, and you actually enhance the infection. SOURCE: Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing (March 26) This is no mere theoretical risk. As researchers who were trying to develop a vaccine for the original SARS outbreak discovered, the vaccine actually made the lab animals subjected to it more susceptible to the disease. PETER HOTEZ: One of the things that we are not hearing a lot about is the unique potential safety problems of coronavirus vaccines. This was first found in the 1960s with the Respiratory Syncytial Virus vaccines, and it was done in Washington with the NIH and Children’s National Medical Center. Some of those kids who got the vaccine actually did worse, and I believe there were two deaths in the consequence of that study. Because what happens with certain types of respiratory virus vaccines, you get immunized, and then when you get actually exposed to the virus, you get this kind of paradoxical immune enhancement phenomenon, and what—and we don’t entirely understand the basis of it. But we recognize that it’s a real problem for certain respiratory virus vaccines. That killed the RSV program for decades. Now the Gates Foundation is taking it up again. But when we started developing coronavirus vaccines—and our colleagues—we noticed in laboratory animals that they started to show some of the same immune pathology that resembled what had happened 50 years earlier. SOURCE: Hotez Coronavirus Vaccine Safety Testimony This specific issue regarding coronavirus vaccines is exacerbated by the arbitrary and unscientific 18-month timeframe that Gates is insisting on for the vaccine’s development. In order to meet that deadline, vaccine developers are being urged to use new and largely unproven methods for creating their experimental immunizations, including DNA and mRNA vaccines. KELLY O’DONNELL: For a self-described wartime president, victory over COVID-19 equals a vaccine. TRUMP: I hope we can have a vaccine, and we’re going to fast-track it like you’ve never seen before. O’DONNELL: Adding Trump-style branding, the administration launched “Operation Warp Speed,” a multi-billion-dollar research and manufacturing effort to shorten the typical year-plus vaccine development timeline. SOURCE: Trump Administration’s ‘Operation Warp Speed’ Aims To Fast-Track Coronavirus Vaccine | Nightly News ANTHONY FAUCI: We’re gonna start ramping up production with the companies involved, and you do that at risk. In other words, you don’t wait until you get an answer before you start manufacturing. You at risk proactively start making it, assuming it’s gonna work. SOURCE: Dr Fauci Discusses Operation Warp Speed’s Goal Of 100s Of Millions Of Vaccine Doses By January BECKY QUICK: You’re thinking 18 months even with all the work that you’ve already done to this point and the planning that you are taking with lots of different potential vaccinations and building up for that now GATES: Yeah, so there’s an approach called RNA vaccine that people like Moderna, CureVac and others are using that in 2015 we’d identified that as very promising for pandemics and for other applications as well. And so, if everything goes perfectly with the RNA approach, we could actually beat the 18 months. We don’t want to create unrealistic expectations. SOURCE: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the coronavirus pandemic and his work toward a vaccine RHIJU DAS: So the concept of an RNA vaccine is: Let’s inject the RNA molecule that encodes for the spike protein. ANGELA RASMUSSEN: It’s making your cell do the work of creating this viral protein that is going to be recognized by your immune system and trigger the development of these antibodies. DAS: Our bodies won’t make a full-fledged infectious virus. They’ll just make a little piece and then learn to recognize it and then get ready to destroy the virus if it then later comes and invades us. [. . .] DAS: It’s a relatively new, unproven technology. And there’s still no example of an RNA vaccine that’s been deployed worldwide in the way that we need for the coronavirus. RASMUSSEN: There is the possibility for unforeseen, adverse effects. AKIKO IWASAKI: So this is all new territory. Whether it would elicit protective immune response against this virus is just unknown right now. SOURCE: Can Scientists Use RNA to Create a Coronavirus Vaccine? Rushing at “Warp Speed” to develop a new vaccine using experimental technology and then mass-producing and delivering billions of doses to be injected into “basically the entire world” before adequate testing is even done amounts to one of the most dangerous experiments in the history of the world, one that could alter the lives of untold numbers of people. That an experimental vaccine—developed in a brand new way and rushed through with a special, shortened testing regime—should be given to adults, children, pregnant women, newborn babies, and the elderly alike, would be, in any other situation, unthinkable. To suggest that such a vaccine should be given to the entire planet would have been called lunacy mere months ago. But now the public is being asked to accept this premise without question. Even Gates himself acknowledges the inherent risks of such a project. But his concern is not for the lives that will be irrevocably altered in the event that the vaccines cause damage to the population. Instead, he is more concerned that the pharmaceutical companies and the researchers are given legal immunity for any such damage. GATES: You know, if we have, you know, one in 10,000 side effects, that’s, you know, way more— 700,000—you know, people who will suffer from that. So really understanding the safety at gigantic scale across all age ranges—you know, pregnant, male, female, undernourished, existing comorbidities—it’s very, very hard. And that actual decision of, “OK, let’s go and give this vaccine to the entire world,” ah, governments will have to be involved because there will be some risk and indemnification needed before that can be decided on. SOURCE: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the coronavirus pandemic and his work toward a vaccine As we have already seen, in the arena of global health, what Bill Gates wants is what the world gets. So it should be no surprise that immunity for the Big Pharma vaccine manufacturers and the vaccination program planners is already being worked on. In the US, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a declaration that retroactively provides “liability immunity for activities related to medical countermeasures against COVID-19,” including manufacturers, distributors and program planners of “any vaccine, used to treat, diagnose, cure, prevent, or mitigate COVID-19.” The declaration was issued on March 17th but retroactively covers any activity back to February 4th, 2020, the day before the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced an emergency $100 million to fund treatment efforts and to develop new vaccines for COVID-19. The plan to inject everyone on the planet with an experimental vaccine is no aberration in Bill Gates’ envisioned “Decade of Vaccines.” It is its culmination. https://www.corbettreport.com/gates/
  28. 4 points
    Well, the facts are that China will have around 2% GDP growth this year and the US around 4% decline this year. Next year, China will have around 8% growth and the US around 4% will make up for this year's recession. The US result will not be the worst in the world, of course, it will be average, but it means that just in 2 years time China will catch up with the US thanks to a pandemic of 10% of GDP. Not that he wants to worry American users, but so far the US is not winning this economic war with China. As for me, imposing sanctions on half of the world is not a proof of strength, but rather sign of growing weakness and typical behavior of a person who begins to drown and wave his hands in desperation. Except that China is a country of incredible extremes. It just so happens that my brother's wife is a sinologist by profession - on the one hand, you can pay by phone with your someone who sells parsley in China, and on the other hand, when you enter the interior, poverty is still terrible, but the Chinese village is a village of hardworking people, so rather well-kept and each such peasant has an additional profession such as a blacksmith, potter from which he derives his aditional income. Apparently, no country has ever gone badly with the influx of a calm Chinese workforce, which I recommend to all who are excited by the fact that Russia will suffer losses if even 10 million Chinese workers have settled in the Russian province. This is a particularly popular thread in Poland.
  29. 4 points
    As I said, the average Joe does not understand the link between persistent trade deficits and countries that go bankrupt. All you need to know is that in order to consume more than you produce in a given year, you must either borrow the difference from foreigners, or sell assets to them. I hope you can figure out the rest
  30. 4 points
    I was hoping that the Southern outbreak wouldn't happen but pointed it out when it did. it was not a projection. Herd immunity is not way off. Most dense population centers are at it or nearly half way there. You need to take antibody prevalence and multiply X 3 to get an estimate of T cell immunity, which is long term. Also consider cross immunity of about 30% from exposures to other coronaviruses, thus giving herd immunity at 70% of 70% / 3 or 17% antibody prevalence with R0 of 2.3. For NYC subway riders where R0 is north of 15 without masks, probably 10-12 with them, you need to get 95% of the 70% that are susceptible, thus the antibody prevalence target for HIT would be 22%. That has already happened in NYC, Boston, and many other locations. Note that herd immunity does not mean no cases, and it does not apply to those never exposed, who will have to wait for the rate of infection to drop to a level acceptable to them. What it does mean is that the infection rate can't spike up in the herd immune region, and that outbreaks die down rapidly and eventually the virus infections drop off to near nothing.
  31. 4 points
    Great article--the guy can really write. I fear that we're about to see even greater violence in the United States. The Leftists are so confident of a sweep that they're threatening to change the # of justices in the SCOTUS. On the face of it, logic would tell us that something like that would require a constitutional amendment, which takes a supermajority (2/3) in both houses, then signed off on by the president. By a quirk of the Constitution, the # of justices wasn't stipulated. Nine was the # arbitrarily chosen. During the Civil War, the court was "packed" for obvious reasons: to settle disputes about the war and then Reconstruction. The Judicial Act of 1869 put the # back to 9 and there it has remained. BUT, alarmingly, the concept of "court-packing" has been bantered about by the fringe far-left. A sweep would be catastrophic for the country--which is still largely centrist--as justices could be added until the Supreme Court became a cudgel for the far-left agenda. Theoretically, since the Constitution doesn't specify, and since a change requires only a simple majority in both legislative houses, then signed off on by the president, they could "court-pack" with 20 liberal justices, which would change the entire complexion of the country. This is all I recall from high school constitutional law, I'm afraid. This seemed to me then to be a glaring omission by the Founders, and looking back over the last many years, it still does. I suspect this came from the Magna Carta, as did so much else of our Constitution. My professor liked to say, "The British weren't using it so we did." Anyway, this is a staggering Sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the People of the Land.
  32. 3 points
    With all the problems Kalifornistan has right now, this makes perfect sense… Not Gruesome Newsom's new ploy to distract voters from the swirling cesspool that is Kalifornistan should make the idiocracy happy and the cognesceti sad, just like he planned. Given that it's an executive order, it can (and should) be overturned by the first adult to take the governor mansion. Given that we're talking about Kalifornistan, that might never happen. In a functional democracy, the courts would shoot this down, but again Kalifornistan… Just how bad an impact on the grid will this create, given they can't even keep the lights on now? Asking for a friend
  33. 3 points
    CNN article ,"BIden raised 5X Trump from Banks / Wallstreet. It's not free. They want two things : (1) They don't want to pay income personal income taxes, so font you dare repeal the HUGE "CARRIED INTEREST" TAX LOOPHOLE (2) The want to make money in China. So don't (a) stand up for the oppressed Uighurs. (b) Don't hold China accountable for spreading the Wuhan virus. (c) Don't put tariffs on Chinese goods to even the playing field and make them play fair. (d) Don't hold Corporations accountable moving mfg to China decimating middle America, working class and small to medium businesses. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/28/cnn-all-the-big-banks-on-wall-street-backing-joe-biden-against-trump/ Let me tell you how it works at the Wallstreet banks. Your manager tells you , "We're having a little Fund raiser for BIden after the market close at 4:30 , conference room C on the 22nd floor. Oh, don't forget your checkbook". Pocket change . Small price to pay for Carried Interest loophole so you pay no personal income taxes.
  34. 3 points
    Congress makes the tax code. Senator Schumer attacked Romney during the 2012 Presidential campaign for not paying taxes by using Carried Interest at Bain Capital that allowed him to accumulate wealth of $ 400 million. He then put most of it in a "living trust for all his sons. Therefore paying zero income tax. Just like all the Hedge Funds and investment banks that contributed hundreds of $ millions to Biden campaign . Guess who received the most campaign contributions from Hedge Funds to protect their Carried Interest loophole a couple of years later. . . . . Senator Schumer. Let's call it like it is. They should all pay more taxes. If the New York Times and Joe BIden are concerned about wealthy individuals paying fair share he should commit to repealing the "Carried Interest" LOOPHOLE for Wallstreet and Hedge Funds . Hedge Funds like his son Hunter and Secretary of State Kerry's stepson Chris Hienz Rosemont Seneca LLP. We should ask Joe if he has shares in Rosemont Seneca LLP that made Ten's of $ millions from Federal TALF $130 Million grant, Ukraine Barisma and $1.5 Billion Chinese Communist Party owned bank. Joe a simple YES or NO will do. Ask Jill if she'll let you answer the question. Finally there is a President that is not a "politician" and fights for the people.
  35. 3 points
    By the way, I would love to know what you mean by "caving in to Putin"? Also, my understanding is that US has only 200,000 covid deaths with pop'n 320,000,000 whereas UK has 50,000 deaths with 65,000,000 pop'n? You are doing better than UK despite far fewer lockdowns?
  36. 3 points
    All true, but Patton got to be a general, it wasn't a popularity contest. In point of fact, had Patton been in charge the war likely would have ended sooner with less casualties. Since he wasn't a politician, he got sidelined during a World War by the politicians. The Germans couldn't believe it, they thought it was all a ruse. They were wrong. Trump may be brusque but that's just NYC behavior. Only people who've never been there don't recognize it. He's in the very worst kind of popularity contest attacked on all sides by an MSM promoting the New World order overtly and covertly, scolding their own customers for not being better mindless minions like Enthalpic. Patton wouldn't take that job for five minutes, nor would he last ten. They really are alike in many ways, but Trump clearly has thicker skin. People mistake him fighting back with being thin skinned, I see it as fighting back and not being a patsy like Bush was. He felt fighting back demeaned the office, but the office had been demeaned plenty by then and he should have stood up for himself and his party. IMHO
  37. 3 points
    All true Tom. Yet the deciding factor would be the total viral load, which in the dust-settled particles is going to be light. That viral load is likely not to cause the new person to become symptomatic. You will agree that coughing or sneezing, by a heavily-infected person, is the primary transmission path. That, together with touching the face and then others. The whole "mask" thing is pure street theatre, designed by politicians in an effort to be seen "doing something." The one limited place where a mask is helpful is when an infected person who is symptomatic, coughing and sneezing, is about in public. In short, the mask protects others from your infection, not you from others' infections. But sometimes "street theatre" is useful. It does bring awareness of risk, so that is helpful. Meanwhile, stay out of Chinese "wet markets" and avoid eating pangolins and bats. Cheers.
  38. 3 points
    I'm glad Mr. McKinsey came on this forum as I've learned some things from him. What I don't really understand is why he came on. He is obviously the most blatant cheerleader for green energy imaginable, owning none of the many woes that plague Ca and threaten to make this new experiment a total exercise in disaster. Say he just wants to educate a bunch of rednecks, really cares about us, wants to warn us away from fossil fuels, well, good for him, but I rather suspect it goes deeper than that. In fact, it has the smell of propaganda to me. But why? Surely not to drive up the share price of TSLA. It's doing fine on its own. And I doubt it's state pride. Mr. Musk has very little of that. Soon, in fact, I'll bet his entire organization in deep in the heart of Texas. What about it, Mr. McKinsey? Are you here to help us? Or to blow smoke up our backsides? Look, maybe you just want to chat about it. Got lonely. Needed an ear. I get it, you've helped promote a dream of electric cars, big solar and wind farms, and the farms feed into a big lithium ion storage battery, and the grid is connected to a couple million electric cars, and when peak demand hits hard, why you just keep upping the bid for electricity until all those people in LA and SF and San Jose and Palo Alto go running out of their offices and plug in and reverse thrust on their stored electricity--the very electricity that was going to see them home, by the way--but a bunch of people who could afford hundred-thousand cars dash out to save some poor soul sweating in front of the AC. And by golly, you have to applaud that sort of spirit. Unfortunately, it won't work that way. Bottom line, and you can tell this to your pal the gov, is that if you persist in this nonsense with absolutely no NG power plant to feed in grid inertia and serve as a peaker plant, this is going to be the greatest tragedy propagated on a state held captive since, well, New York City when the coronavirus hit. You helped us. We'll help you. Don't do this. Sure, build the solar and wind and of course, feed them into the battery, but for pete's sake, use a backup NG power plant. You won't have to use it much (certainly not enough to change the price of NG) and it'll save you maybe a whole bunch of heartache out there. See? Aren't you glad you joined the Non-Communist Coffee Club?
  39. 3 points
    The depth of corruption is numbing, combine that with the Press turning a blind eye and Democratic leadership being complicit? How does one even begin to clean up such a cabal..Ordinary Americans will only react when it shoved in there face, and that event may vary well be to late.
  40. 3 points
    No. You can't have it both ways. You said this time it's different. And it is. Biden promised the very people who hold his puppet strings that he would ban fracking on government lands if he got elected. Those people are nasty. They are AOC and her pals, Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren. Biden isn't acting very competent. He is a Trojan Horse. He has to do what he said he'd do. Otherwise his very own people cut him loose and let their VP run things. How would they do that? By impeachment, or better yet, by invoking 25:VI----the ability for the full cabinet and the VP to sign he's incompetent and remove him from office. Think he might fold under that kind of pressure? Yeah, this time it's different. VERY damn different!
  41. 3 points
    My argument is oil takes time to get . (Only shale doesnt aka 6 months) Guyana took 13 years? ..... Tesla is from 2003 and builds 400k cars. Per year. Even if batteries go to zero in cost all the buildable electric cars are at mabey 1M per year right now mabey 2 next year. Even 4 the next year. Of 90M sold per year it's a drop in the bucket. At 1.2B cars that ar on the road. Over the next 3 years 7m EV / 1.2B cars is nothing. Libya can add 300k barrels over next 2 years . Mabey 400-500k. Iran already selling oil illegally. But say add another 1M barrels per day . If covid clears were talking USA oil down 3.4M barrels /d. And pent up flying and travel . I'm not calling for a crazy spike because if gas is high this winter forward the high oil would be like crack for shale drillers. They could drill with FCF. Edit : so the physical has to catch up in any case first to clear the glut and remove over production (hence oil dragging at 40$) next after more demand and a recognized shortage prices will rise then the oil will have to catch up . If this is 2021 H2 - 2022 H2 theres really going to be the same physical cars on the road even at 100% EV sales that's maximum 10% gasoline demand and gas is 25% demand of oil? So 2.5% of demand down? This is all off the top of me head so dont quote me on it lol.
  42. 3 points
    I think the curtain has been pulled back on the wizard and the market sees OPEC is not the powerful controlling cartel we were lead to believe. * Technology has increased the volume of obtainable oil, while reducing the cost of production. Both conventional and Fracking. * Technology has increased our ability to more accurately track (1) production , (2)loadings/destination/unloading and (3) storage inventory * Technology has allowed for more efficient marketing and trading also reducing price * Technology (EVs , etc) have/will reduce demand or tempered growth. How many time have you heard " It's different this time" and it turns out to not be so. This time , "It is different" Things changed The money that speculators make on the fringe is a tiny tiny fraction of the dollar volume of oil transaction. You sound like recent statements by the Saudi Oil Minister blaming the drop in oil prices on "speculators". It's just an excuse. The scary thing is the Head of the largest oil producer in the world just might believe that. Clueless.
  43. 3 points
    No one is saying "give him a break." Mr. Smith is not in need of "a break," nor is he amenable to one. The rest of us are saying, "knock it off," we are getting tired of your constant sniping. Aside from being immature, it detracts from the forum discussion. Just because you feel better sniping away at someone does not grant you a licence to do so. You continue to abuse the Forum. In all candor, I really don't much give a damn if you declare me to be "senile." You stand alone.
  44. 3 points
    And tell me how you are going to address the billions of dollars of coal and hydrocarbon electric generation that will need to be written off the balance sheets of all major utilities? You do understand that the utilities will be forced to go back to their respective Federal and State regulators to capture an increase of their rates for all users, don't you? Otherwise, utility socks will take a beating in respect to their price, which also means the utilities cost of capital will increase at an alarming rate, forcing many of them to seek bankruptcy protection in the absence of increasing their rates for electric. And what impact will that have on GDP going forward (hint: consumer spending is 70% of GDP)? Can you say Recession? Welcome to the all electric payoff to the current generation. It ain't about technical feasibility. It is about economic feasibility. You will most likely be dead and buried before an all electric future becomes feasible. Get a clue, lib....
  45. 3 points
    Rob, Click on the image so you get it in a window by itself. Copy the URL to your clipboard. Select "Insert other media" in the lower right of the comment box. Paste URL there. Ought to work, unless the source is not "HTTPS" (ie, for security HTTP: gets rejected).
  46. 3 points
    When I use the word 'free', I mean available to put to better use, not necessarily that someone can have it for nothing. There are some towns that offer 'free' land in Canada, if you're willing to build a $250,000 house on it within three years.
  47. 3 points
    In my experience people who are not going to be productive aren't going to be whether they are supervised or not. The 5 x 8 x 40 mentality is pretty outmoded...I work 7 days a week, take calls at night, am willing to work or discuss business or work at all hours, and have no interest in retiring. I also choose what I do and when I do it, which breaks the mold of the potted plants/seat warmers.
  48. 3 points
    I doubt that very many people want to look at documents and scientific studies about the Flu vaccine, but the links and resources in this article are prolific. https://homevaccineeducationnetwork.com/flu-vaccine-and-covid-19
  49. 3 points
    The 'average Joe' does not understand that trade deficits means that some foreign country busts their butt to make things and ship them overseas, while taking IOUs instead of buying imports for their immediate consumption. These IOUs (in the case of the US these are Treasury Bonds) pile up in foreign central banks 'forever'. Americans live in monster houses with two cars in the driveway, while a typical Japanese family lives in a house the size of a US two-car garage. They produce, we consume. We spend, they 'save'. However, there is no point in saving unless you are going to do something with it eventually - like take a vacation. If all anyone does is hoard their cash, they die with a pile of cash under their mattress. This happens a lot in countries that export to the US. American unions complain that foreign countries 'export their unemployment', which is a correct assertion. The US, however, then uses that labor to build new industries that have no competition. We end up with higher value industries - $999 iPhones instead of $99 televisions.
  50. 3 points
    You partially answered your own question with chaos. Add the destruction of the economy, especially in Demoncrat run states and cities. Before the election, all fear of the future of COVID 19 should subside substantially. If President Trump is reelected there is no problem. He will not allow the Deep State to do anything much more to him. Hopefully the last four years of their activity will result in some going to jail, but at least fully exposed. The balance of power between the Senate, the House, the Executive Branch, and The Supreme Court will also be in play.