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  1. 21 points
    Excellent overview. Coronavirus hype biggest political hoax in history ANALYSIS / OPINION: The new coronavirus is real. The response to the coronavirus is hyped. And in time, this hype will be revealed as politically hoaxed. In fact, COVID-19 will go down as one of the political world’s biggest, most shamefully overblown, overhyped, overly and irrationally inflated and outright deceptively flawed responses to a health matter in American history, one that was carried largely on the lips of medical professionals who have no business running a national economy or government. The facts are this: COVID-19 is a real disease that sickens some, proves fatal to others, mostly the elderly — and does nothing to the vast majority. That’s it. That, in a nutshell, is it. Or, in the words of Dan Erickson and Artin Massih, doctors and co-owners of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, California: Let’s get the country reopened - and now. “Do we need to still shelter in place? Our answer is emphatically no. Do we need businesses to be shut down? Emphatically no. … [T]he data is showing it’s time to lift,” Erickson said, in a recent interview. He’s right. They’re right. The data to keep America closed and Americans closed in simply doesn’t exist. If truth be told, it’s questionable it ever did. The scientists leading the coronavirus shutdown charge predicted in March that in America, between 100,000 and 250,000 would die. They based those estimates on computer modeling. But at the same time they were basing those estimates on computer modeling, they were acknowledging that computer modeling is inaccurate and errs on the side of hype. “I’ve never seen a model of the diseases I’ve dealt with where the worst-case actually came out,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of President Donald Trump’s White House coronavirus task force, during a CNN interview in March. “They always overshoot.” Catch that? Fauci’s message: Computer models are flawed and inaccurate and always overestimate the problem. But from these faulty overinflated computer figures came all the constitutionally questionable actions by government anyway - from ordering businesses closed to quarantining-slash-house arresting American citizens to doing some quick and pitiful and economically painful income redistribution schemes via stimulus funds’ legislation. Since, about 56,000 have died in America due to coronavirus — or have they? Again, the facts are flimsy. Government ordered hospitals weeks ago to stop performing elective surgeries to make way for the projected numbers of coronavirus patients. So they did. And in so doing, they cut off their revenue streams. So Congress passed legislation giving hospitals billions of dollars to treat coronavirus patients. Conflict of interest? Yikes. Yes. The coronavirus counts, already flawed from computer modeling, were then given another flaw treatment. “[Pennsylvania] removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy,” The Inquirer reported. Add to that the ever-changing nature of a virus that spreads by air and contact, and honestly, suddenly, even expert Fauci’s best guess is about as good as Joe Neighbor’s best guess. So that leaves common sense, combined with knowledge of past viruses, to guide. But the quote-unquote medical experts refused to go there, refused to acknowledge common sense, refused to compare with past viruses in any way that didn’t hype the coronavirus counts. This virus was different, Americans were told. This virus was far more contagious than anything ever before seen or studied, Americans were told. And any time the case counts dropped off and the numbers proved wrong, well, this was due to the social distancing and quarantining and face-mask wearing that Americans had been doing, by government’s order - Americans were told. It just didn’t make sense. It just doesn’t add up. It just didn’t, and doesn’t, justify the utter shredding of civil rights. And now some in the medical community, thank goodness, are starting to point out the glaring omissions of logic and fact that have plagued this overhyped, overreaching coronavirus crackdown that has stretched on far, far too long. Among some of Erickson’s remarks: “This is immunology — microbiology 101. This is the basis of what we’ve known for years: When you take human beings and you say, ‘Go into your house, clean all your counters, Lysol them down’ … what does it do to our immune system? … Sheltering in place decreases your immune system.” And this: “Any time you have something new in the [medical] community, it sparks fear — and I would have done what Dr. Fauci did … initially. … But you know, looking at theories and models — which is what these folks use — is very different than the way the actual virus presents itself throughout communities.” And this: “Do you think you’re protected from COVID when you wear gloves that transfer disease everywhere? … We wear masks in an acute setting to protect us. [But] we’re not wearing masks. Why is that? Because we understand microbiology. We understand immunology. And we want strong immune systems. I don’t want to hide in my home, develop a weak immune system and then come out and get disease.” And this: “When I’m writing up my death report I’m being pressured to add COVID. Why is that? Why are we being pressured to add COVID? To maybe increase the numbers, and make it look a little bit worse than it is. We’re being pressured in-house to add COVID to the diagnostic list when we think it has nothing to do with the actual cause of death. The actual cause of death was not COVID, but it’s being reported as one of the diseases processes. … COVID didn’t kill them, 25 years of tobacco use killed.” Does it get any clearer than that? Seriously, America. The only reason America is still in shutdown mode is political. Either politicians are too afraid to make any move that might come back to bite them politically or politicians are using this coronavirus to political advantage — to, say, pass gun control laws, like Virginia’s governor, Ralph Northam. Or to, say, float campaign hopes on the current ravaged economy, like former Vice President Joe Biden and oh, all the Democrats facing races. But for the rest of America - the rest of hardworking, freedom-loving America - it’s time to reel in the radically unconstitutional. “If you’re going to dance on someone’s constitutional rights, you better have a good reason - you better have a really good reason, not just a theory,” Erickson said. “The data is showing us it’s time to lift … so if we don’t lift, what is the reason?” That is the key question. As time goes by, the answer will only become more and more evident. The coronavirus may be real — but the hype is hoaxed. Now let’s just hope this is a one-time hoax that doesn’t roll around every time flu season approaches.
  2. 18 points
    Chris, I like your confidence but how is the world going to get moving again? About the only way I see that happening is if this virus is "seasonal" and goes into a silent pout on its own or the hydroxychloroquine turns out to be a silver bullet. IOW, I'm not at all sure that most people have peaked over the hill to see what lies ahead, post-coronavirus. I can't imagine restaurants, bars, barber shops, the DMV, people-to-people contact places opening up to business as usual until there's some assurance those people will survive the experience. Not to try to dampen your enthusiasm but I think we skipped right through the recession part and are now, very likely, in a depression. With depression era unemployment numbers (likely will reach 20-25%). I think the stock market will bottom out again, only much lower this time, probably to a Dow of 12,500--about where it was before the crash of 2008. What we are going through is going to take a few years to recover from as we're going to come out of it with the largest national debt ever imaginable by the drunkest of men. Inflation has to run rampant. About the only thing that can save the oil business right now is a massive infrastructure project across America, and a complete ban of across-the-water oil, at the same time putting a cap on prices at or about $60. I just don't see any other way out at this point--too much has occurred, too much demand destruction, too much debt-making and destruction, too much storage all across the world. We have reached a stage of oil warfare. Compare it: we were in medical or viral or call it what you will warfare with China since SARS, but let it go. We let this go, let our entire United States petroleum business go, we're looking at hostage prices.
  3. 16 points
    The governments everywhere are flailing because they were acting like headless chickens when the virus hit was confirmed. It was obvious that it would hit. They planned badly, The US did badly as well. Flying blind without tests because of CDC and FDA power games, which you can also interpret as deliberate sabotage. The WHO acted as a Chinese mouthpiece and its efforts in coordinating vaccine and treatment development are thus suspect. They may be just as well making sure that there is no vaccine or treatment to pass trials. It is typical for example of the NIH and FDA to structure trials and experiments by selecting patients for trial that can't react to a low cost treatment in order to keep away competition from a new patented drug. There is no reason for any European nation to support the WHO and collaborate with it. Its actions as a CCP sycophant disqualify it from any degree of trust. They know better than that. Trump was suckered into the lockdown guidelines. It was a mistake. He is trying to get out of it without having to admit that he was taken in by the establishment - aka "the swamp" - in their role as CCP shills and paid saboteurs and political enemies.
  4. 16 points
    To set the stage, I do not have a medical background, I am an engineer. Furthermore, I am just like everybody else as I to am forced to rely on questionable media sources for my information. That said, there seems to be little, or no, consensus between the various medical association, various doctors, or various politicians, regarding the present lethality of the corona virus, the level of infection, or the effectiveness of any treatment proposed. There also seems to be dissension among the ‘experts’ as to the necessity, or effectiveness, of these draconian lockdown measures. Everyone does seem to agree that the prevention measures presently in place are destroying economies and driving the world to the brink of a depression. For Americans, the trampling of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights is of grave concern. This whole corona virus issue reminds me of the climate change debate where we are willing to bet our livelihood and way of life on science which does not have the blessing of the entire scientific community and has hatched cheerleaders on both sides of the debate that rarely, if ever, actually understand the science supporting what they are cheering about. In regards to the corona virus issue, and the climate change debate, it appears that the blind are leading the blind.
  5. 16 points
    Readers might note that "Dumping" is a specific set of events in which surplus product is sold at prices below that commanded in the home country for the same product. Occasionally, Dumping is taken to mean selling at below the cost of production. There is no hard evidence - yet - that the KSA is selling that crude for less than equal-quality crude is internally sold. It is a bit of an abstract, as I assume that the production of petroleum goods inside KSA is all controlled by the State, and thus pricing ladders are artificial. That said, is there evidence that the oil itself has not already been sold to oil traders? Can traders "dump"? Probably not. I do not see any plausible way for anti-dumping laws to apply to the sale of Saudi oil at fire-sale pricing. Yo9u have this cheap oil everywhere, the world is awash in it. I would not put much stock into anything that Rick Perry says, he is a notorious dimwit. Can the Trump Administration impose import quotas? Yes, it can, and there is precedent for this. Readers are invited to review the combination of tariffs and quotas on construction lumber from Canada into the USA (a perennial sore point, for many decades, between them). Will Trump do that? My guess: no. The US economy benefits immensely from ultra-cheap oil. The users of oil products pay less, thus having more funds to spend on "something else." Or, as in the case of the air carriers, they can offer lower fares, once the hedging contracts run out. All that, cumulatively, puts more cash into individual pockets, be that corporations or individuals. More cash ultimately results in more spending, and greater levels of economic activity. OK, that is not so pleasant for the domestic oil industry, but it is what it is.
  6. 16 points
    President Trump has pretty much done what he promised to do on his campaign trail. That must be the biggest slap in the face to his haters. I'm sure there were many who thought "oh well, he'll never get anything done" Instead, he does every thing he said he would, including keeping oil prices down. I say this honestly, I have been impressed with his effectiveness in politics and his wisdom in keeping the U.S. out of foreign conflict. Especially considering he's met arguably the harshest critics and most political resistance of any American President. I definitely don't always agree with him, but he has been consistent to his promises.
  7. 15 points
    Do others, reacting to fear, hype and flawed computer models have a right to close your business, take your job, ruin your livelihood and trample on the Constitution and the Bill of Rights?
  8. 15 points
    There are really 2 separate issues for conventional and unconventional shale fields. Most conventional fields are quite old, and have been using waterfloods for decades to keep the reservoirs pressurized and fluids moving. In a waterflood, you inject high pressure water on 1 end of the field and expect to recuperate that water + oil + gas on another end of the field. By continuously injecting water, you keep things moving underground through the rock pores. Now, if you shut in wells, you also need to stop injecting water, because the reservoir can only take so much. Once you stop injecting water, everything stops moving underground, the rock can swell, effectively closing the pores making impossible to restart the reservoir... or the oil can stick to the rock rather than flow through the water... there are many mechanics that would simply cause the oil to get trapped underground if we shut in these old conventional fields, and would take billions of dollars to get them restarted. So it's just not worth, better to produce the field at a loss for a few months than lose it forever. I would argue that unconventional shale fields are a lot easier to shut in and restart but in many cases there is a huge cost associated with that. Once a shale well is producing, if you shut it in for some time, sand will slowly accumulate in the horizontal effectively clogging the well off completely and there is nothing you can do to get this well back online without incurring huge costs by getting a crew out on location to clean out the well and bring it back online. So again engineers need to carefully evaluate the economics in this scenario to make sure that shutting in a well wouldnt end of causing more economic damage than just keeping the well online even through it is currently uneconomic. all this is to say... turning wells on and off isnt just a simple ordeal... you can turn them off for a couple hours, maybe a day, and not cause long term damage but shutting in some wells for a long period of time is essentially abandoning the asset.
  9. 14 points
    Watching the news in Malaysia this morning I saw where the rioters in the US were pulling down the statues of Confederate veterans, defacing historic sites (including the Lincoln Memorial), and demanding that US miliary installations named after Confederate Generals be renamed. In other news, British protesters and rioters were pulling down statues, defacing others (including those of Winston Churchil) and demanding institutions named after Cecil Rhodes be renamed. Slavery was a horrible institution, most agree on that.,But it needs to be seen in the historical context it existed in. Furthermore, almost every society, at some point, kept slaves (including South America, Africa and the Middle East). Slavery was NEVER a solely ‘white’ institution. The George Floyd/police brutality/racism narrative has now been highjacked. I have never owned slaves and neither have my ancestors. By the same token, no black alive today, in the US or UK, has ever been a slave in either the UK or the US. I refuse to buy into the white guilt or white privilege trip - I have neither. I am seeing ‘black entitlement’, which is unearned. I am to the point where I don’t give a rat’s ass about anyone who loots, burns down residences or beats people up for no reason. This is aggrevated robbery, arson and assault. I hope these people are arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law. I am sick of these people trying to rewrite history because they are ‘offended’. These rioters are entitled idiots have lost the plot and are doing more damage to their ‘cause’ than the Floyd murder created. I have zero respect for these rioters and will not shed a tear when they get what they deserve...regardless of their skin color.
  10. 14 points
    The Trump Administration is doing everything possible, and probably too much in some ways. Meanwhile his actions, and that of the entire government are being lied about by almost all of the mainstream media sources. They are guilty for much of the stock market losses and scare mongering going on. It is born out of the same desperation that the motivated the attempts to overthrow him since even before he was nominated and finally the phony attempt at impeachment. These lies are just more of the same.
  11. 14 points
    Have you ever personally seen what it takes to get a barrel of oil out of the ground and into a barrel? I doubt it; correct me if I'm wrong. Do you have any idea of history? With barrels of oil in reserve, we're about right: no less, no more. IMO-2020 takes place January 1, 2020. Do you have any idea what it's going to cost to transport a VLCC full of oil to China after the low-sulfur bans are in place? I didn't think so. Do you have any idea what the Saudis have in reserve? I don't either, but it's a given that it's less than they had five years ago. Occidental has ten billion borrowed at 8% interest--but they're trying to sell property. Continental is doing okay. Hess is also doing okay. Several small players are doing okay. Some are going to go broke, but you know what, it's not their money----it's funny money, from pooled investors, pay your way and find your way. Secretary Perry doesn't have a f****** clue. The Department of Energy is one of the departments he claimed he was going to eliminate when he was campaigning for president. He forgot its name on stage! And now he's head of it! Does that not strike you as ironic? Whether Perry's guess is right or Goldman Sachs has it right is of very little significance: it is what is is. And what it is is a market, with fear and greed moving it, along with surplus and . . . ultimately, shortages. But I'll damn sure guarantee you one thing: the world is NOT currently awash in oil. The world's storage is just about on par. The world's proved up reserves are no longer even verifiable; if they were the Saudi Aramco IPO would be ongoing. In truth, the world doesn't have a clue what the reserves are, and which ones will be used. Most of the articles on Oilprice are meant to scare people, written by someone like you: who hasn't a brain cell's idea of what it's like to go take a risk, bring up a barrel of oil, try to peddle it. It's just bullshit. I don't mind you saying it, but I do want to call it out as bullshit. It's not even provocative.
  12. 13 points
    An upbeat success story about Natural Gas. For some reason, the media complains lately that Natural Gas is a reliable, cheap and abundant competitor to wind and solar - which are unreliable, expensive, and require backup systems for when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. Seems to me that Natural Gas being reliable, cheap and abundant is a GOOD thing, not something to complain about. Natural gas is crushing wind and solar power ... Meanwhile, the United States continues to reduce its carbon emissions into the atmosphere at a faster pace than virtually every other country in the world. This is because natural gas is not just cheap. It is one of the cleanest ways to produce scalable and dependable electric power for a nation of 320 million people. We don't need brownouts in America as we saw in California, and natural gas is an excellent way to make sure the lights don't go out. It would be hard to find anything NOT to like about this great American success story: energy independence, reliable and inexhaustible supply, low prices, reduced power of the Middle East, Russia, and other OPEC nations, and cleaner air than at any time in at least a century. Yet liberal environmentalists are grousing about this good news. A recent Bloomberg news story exclaims in its headline: "Cheap Gas Imperils Climate Fight by Undercutting Wind and Solar Power." "Gas is such a bargain that it's being viewed less as a bridge fossil fuel driving the world away from dirtier coal toward a clean-energy future," the story tells us, "and more as a hurdle that could slow the trip down. Some forecasters are predicting prices will stay low for years, making it tough for states, cities, and utilities to achieve their goals of being zero-carbon in power production by 2050 or earlier." Ravina Advani, head of renewable energy at BNP Paribus, complained: "The fact that there's an abundance of it makes the move to complete decarbonization much harder … Gas is a tough competitor. It's reliable, and it's cheap." And that is bad news, why, exactly? It's like saying a cure for the coronavirus is bad for hospitals and doctors. Maybe it is high time we admit we have found for now the great energy source of the next few decades and celebrate that America is endowed with a vital resource that is abundant and affordable — just like our best-in-the-world farmland. The Left talks about eradicating "poverty," but "energy poverty" is a primary source of deprivation around the world. Now, there is an obvious solution: Natural gas could easily be the primary source of power production for the world as a whole, slashing costs for the poor everywhere on the planet from sub-Saharan Africa to Bangladesh. Instead, politicians and government bureaucrats around the world are trying to force-feed the world expensive, unreliable, and unscalable wind and solar power. The African Development Bank, for example, is only financing "green energy" projects, not coal or natural gas. It is substituting a cheap form of clean energy for a costly "green" alternative. Why? ... ... It's time to get smart about energy and climate change and throw asunder taxpayer subsidies doled out to all forms of energy production. Let the market, not politicians and environmental groups, choose the safest and most reliable and affordable energy source. Everyone is making a big bet on battery-operated cars and trucks. But who is to say that trucks and buses fueled with natural gas won't be the wave of the future? No one knows what makes the most sense and where the future will lead us. Nuclear power has great promise. But for now, the markets are shouting out for natural gas on a grander scale. Fifteen years ago, no one would have thought we would have a superabundance of this wonder-fuel today. But we do. No one is more surprised than politicians. Why do we let them keep betting the farm on the wrong horse?
  13. 13 points
    (My comment 1 of 2) Simple timeline for you to consider. Your mileage may vary. 1) War on drugs (unwinnable) 2) War on terror (unwinnable) 3) War on Global Warming ( *sigh* ) 4) War on Panic-demic (unwinnable) Each of these items in the timeline has a very specific thing in common: "voluntarily" giving up rights and freedoms in exchange for a false sense of security. See how that works? Also, I refuse to apologize for being a pain in the butt about my views.
  14. 12 points
    Dead on accurate. Presented without my usual long winded comments. DEFIANCE – There are More of Us Than Them In April something was bugging me… a familiarity amid the COVID lock-down status & another time… I couldn’t quite put my finger on it until a dear friend reminded me. Many U.S. states are acting like the early 1980’s and the imposition of Martial law in Poland to target the Solidarity movement. Subsequently I wrote about it on a Twitter thread, because the parallels were really quite remarkable. Sacramento California, peaceful protesters confronted by riot police Both Poland circa 1980 and the U.S. friction in 2020, center around fragile economic issues. Both were an outcome of state control; and the key connection is government targeting control over the workers. In both examples the state took exclusive control of the economic and social state of the citizens, and the courts provided no option for redress. In both examples the state locked down the citizens and would not permit them to interact with each other. In 1981 the government in Poland initiated Martial Law and citizens were forced to communicate underground. In 2020 a considerable number of U.S. state governments locked-down citizens in similar fashion and banned citizen assembly. In 1981 in Poland the communist regime used economic psychological pressure, selecting workers permitted to earn wages. Those workers identified as “essential” to the state. In 2020 many State governors selected workers to earn an income by designating them “essential” to the state. In 1981 in Poland; communication amid the Solidarity Movement was forced underground. In 2020 many oppressive State governors demanded social media remove public content adverse to the interests of the Stay-at-Home confinement orders. Big Tech complied with the authoritarian dictate. In 1981 Polish authorities arrested anyone organizing protests against the authoritarian state. In 2020 numerous authoritarian officials arrested citizens for non-compliance with unilateral dictates. From a New Jersey governor arresting a woman for organizing a protect; to an Idaho mother arrested for allowing her children to play at a park; to a Texas salon owner arrested for operating her business. In 1981 Polish authorities had a program for citizens to report subversive activity against the state. Snitching. In 2020 New York City, LA and numerous state and local officials started programs for citizens to report non-compliant activity against the state. Similar snitching. In both 1981 Poland and 2020 USA we also see media exclusively creating ideological content as propaganda for the interests of the authoritarian state (controlling citizens). Interestingly, as we begin to see the American people saying “enough”, and openly defying the authoritarian state. There’s another parallel that is comparable, enlightening and quite remarkable. Just before the authoritarian state in Poland collapsed there was a rapid movement for the citizens to take to the streets in defiance of state control. I remember watching with great enthusiasm as I saw a very determined pole shout on television: Fast forward more than thirty years later and those glorious voices are prescient. The power of the government comes from the people; or as we say in the U.S. “from the consent of the governed.” Thus the underlying principle behind our defiance. If the people will lead, the politicians are forced to follow: If one person refuses to comply, government can and as we have witnessed arrest them. However, if tens of thousands rebuke these unconstitutional decrees, there isn’t a damn thing government can do to stop it…. and they know it. If one barber shop opens, the owner becomes a target. However, if every barber shop and beauty salon in town opens… there is absolutely nothing the government can do about it. If one restaurant and/or bar opens, the state can target the owner. But if every bar and restaurant in town opens; and if everyone ignores and dispatches the silly dictates of the local, regional or state officials… there isn’t a damned thing they can do about it. The power of the local, regional or state authority comes from the expressed consent of the people. As soon as the majority of people deny that consent, those officials and state authoritarians lose all of their power. Yes, it really is that simple. Go live your best life. You’re worth it. Sacramento, California
  15. 12 points
    This is exactly the type of scenarios that the Climate Panic crowd deliberately ignore. I really do get annoyed with the obtuseness of those who demand to magically convert the entire world to so-called "renewable" energy while they ignore the simple fact that these "renewable" energy systems require backup hydrocarbon energy systems. Double the cost, having both hydrocarbon systems and "renewable" energy systems. Germany’s overdose of renewable energy Germany now generates over 35% of its yearly electricity consumption from wind and solar sources. Over 30 000 wind turbines have been built, with a total installed capacity of nearly 60 GW. Germany now has approximately 1.7 million solar power (photovoltaic) installations, with an installed capacity of 46 GW. This looks very impressive. Unfortunately, most of the time the actual amount of electricity produced is only a fraction of the installed capacity. Worse, on “bad days” it can fall to nearly zero. In 2016 for example there were 52 nights with essentially no wind blowing in the country. No Sun, no wind. Even taking “better days” into account, the average electricity output of wind and solar energy installations in Germany amounts to only about 17% of the installed capacity. The obvious lesson is: if you want a stable, secure electricity supply, then you will need reserve, or backup sources of electricity which can be activated on more or less short notice to fill the gaps between electricity demand and the fluctuating output from wind and solar sources. The more wind and solar energy a nation decides to generate, the more backup capacity it will require. On “bad days” these backup sources must be able to supply up to 100% of the nation’s electricity demand. On “good days” (or during “good hours”) the backup sources will be used less, or even turned off, so that their capacity utilization will also be poor. Not very good economics. ...
  16. 12 points
    There is no logical reason for the American voters to wish to reject a second term of Donald Trump (assuming he is the candidate, which is likely, and assuming that his wife does not insist he retire from politics), The USA has effectively a two-party system. The opposition party is the democrats, and they seem incapable of mounting a credible candidate. Wht logical reason would any voter have, to vote for a Democrat candidate, when all they can trot out is some recycled Clintonite? Who needs those people? Nobody. The Chinese have lost all credibility among Ameerican voters. An argument could be made that the corn growers in Iowa might be angry that the market for their crop, and for soybeans, has evaporated, but remember that Mr. Trump can win an election without the delegate votes of Iowa in the Electoral College. The key states are those that "flipped" from Dem to Repub in the last election: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa. That brought Trump to 303 electoral votes, and you only need 270 to win. Trump can lose Iowa. The Americans are going to separate themselves from China. Nothing that China can do is going to deflect that. Is China going to dismantle the Communist Party, remove itself from Tibet, remove itself from Xingjiang and fre the Uighurs, give up the South China Sea, renounce intentions of seizing Taiwan, and start to behave? No chance. So, why should the Americans (or anyone else) have any truck with that crowd? "Trade War truce?" There isn't going to be any trade, forget about those guys. Will China disintergrate internally without the cash influx from sales to the Americans? Probably. Nobody cares about China any more. China is done.
  17. 12 points
    Nope. BUSTED: Media Uses VA ‘Study’ To Launch Easily Debunked Attack On Hydroxychloroquine Read the ^ article. And here is an analysis of this article: The Department of Veterans Affairs study (Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19) being pushed by the media right now is not a randomized control study, nor has it been peer reviewed. It is a retroactive analysis. The problem with retrospective analysis is that it relies upon secondary data where researchers have no control over how the data was initially collected, essentially making any conclusions in such research studies biased or incomplete. The VA study being pushed by the media right now only involved 385 patients, of which only 368 males between the ages of 59 and 75 were evaluated. From the study: “…hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin.” Given the various clinical characteristics of the patients shown in the study, and the fact that differing treatment protocols were given for various underlying morbidities, it is not possible to accurately determine the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine from this retrospective analysis. From the study: “…we cannot rule out the possibility of selection bias or residual confounding.” In other words, the study does not account for variables that influence both dependent and independent variables. In this case, associated variables pertaining to morbidities are not causally related, essentially making the any conclusions about the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine unreliable. From the study: “Our findings may also be influenced by the demographic composition of patients in our cohort, the majority of whom were black.” 236 of the patients used in this study were black. The median age for the patients was over 65 years. Correlations regarding mortality pertaining to age and race were not established in the documentation of this retrospective analysis, so the study’s conclusions about treatment efficacy are inadequate. The documentation of this retrospective analysis does not indicate anything about the usage of zinc. Given that the hypothetical anti-viral mechanism of hydroxychloroquine is to open the cellular pathway for zinc, the analysis from the VA is incomplete. Hypothetically, hydroxychloroquine allows zinc to enter cells, inhibiting the replicase enzyme, effectively preventing COVID-19 from replicating. The political left is acting as if this study proves that the treatment touted by President Trump is somehow tantamount to snake oil. Given the weaknesses of the study, those who espouse such an opinion are clearly wrong. As you are reading this, the media is conducting a coordinated effort to promote this particular study to discredit and tarnish the President and his supporters. They are pushing what amounts to a false narrative, and people may very well die because of it. Here is a link to the study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf ====================================================================== https://twitter.com/ScottFantasy/status/1252786512808292360
  18. 12 points
    As JFK said, the trick is to surround yourself with competent people (paraphrases). Does Trump have an in-depth knowledge of the oil industry? I doubt it. This is similar to him having an in-depth knowledge of military operations or the mining industry. It is ridiculous to assume that he has an in-depth knowledge of each and every industry. That said, he does understand business, and he will have advisors for each segment of industry.
  19. 12 points
    ^ I'm a baby boomer. A lifelong runner. A mountain climber. A biker. And wouldn't you know it, I contracted a bad disease a few years back that left me with only one functioning lung. So, at age seventy-five, I'm in the highest risk category. If this gets really awful, and I present to the ER with say 120 other C-virus victims, I'm going to get triaged to the parking lot. And I'm okay with that. I'm not suicidal and very few people appreciate life more than I, but I think if we come out of this with our same bloated population of elderly people (all that 90 is the new 50 bullshit) and a badly damaged economy, we're in a world of hurt. 90% of Medicare is spent in the last year of a person's life, 25% in the last month. I've had a good run. Most of us have. Yes, protect the economy. Believe it or not, with age comes a modicum of a special kind of wisdom: old people understand the need for a strong economy. Without it there is no future for our children and grandchildren. And that's paramount for most of us.
  20. 12 points
    Should I hazard a guess that some people would prefer China's CCP authoritarianism and EU's Socialism headquartered in Brussels to conquer Capitalism? Thanks but no thanks. CCP has bungled badly with its mishandled coverup and subsequent explosion of Coronavirus. EU budget is now €75 billion in the hole after the UK extracted itself from the EU's Borg collective.
  21. 12 points
    Anybody else seeing the shale oil ‘house of cards’ collapsing as we speak? Many of us saw this coming, but were continually shouted down by the shale oil cheerleaders. With rig count plummeting and lack of financing, the DUC’s being completed (finally) is the only reason production is still up. Once the DUC backlog is completed it is going to be a whole new ballgame!
  22. 12 points
    Well, here's the math: An "excellent" shale well, as with merely "good" or even "punk," produces the most during the first year. Then fairly rapid decline sets in. That initial production, the IP, basically bankrolls the company that drilled that well. The lifetime production of such a well is based on the trajectory of the IP parabola, and that, in turn, depends on the thickness of the shale layer, how oil-soaked it is, and matters such as porosity of the rock, how easily fractured, and whether or not it is held in place by a pinch-out (a non-porous subterranean barrier). An excellent well with a big IP is usually thought to have a lifetime yield of about 600,000 barrels, which even at $50/barrel (which can't go on forever, can it?) comes to . . . $30,000,000. It costs just as much to drill a mediocre well as an excellent well--about $6,000,000. Many of the wells drilled into Tier-1 rock pay out in the first two years of life. That's one of the reasons EOG is so successful: They have great geologists and engineers working on this and their GPS drilling is second to none. Another reason is because they buy cheaply, drill out a field quickly, and by the time other companies move in, they're on their way to the next great Great. But you're right, every driller is running out of Tier-1 rock, especially in the Permian where "child" wells (infills) are between 20-30% less productive than their "parent" well (the "wildcat" in the tract). This is because of a pressure sink and also due to porosity and the near absence of pinch-outs. Okay, move on to Tier-2 rock, which is frequently thinner shale but sometimes closer to the surface. A pretty good well is projected to produce about half that of a Tier-1. That's still $15,000,000 return for a $6M investment, and again about 50% of that comes with the IP. Something that no one ever mentions is "re-frack," which is going to eventually become--I think--a pretty big deal. Spend $2-3M for re-fracturing a good well and in many cases--especially in the Bakken, where they say 60% of wells are re-frackable--and you wind up with a brand new oil well that is as good as the old one (or better, because completion techniques improve). The thing that is killing most shale drillers is the usual: too much debt. But all this pessimism in the WSJ and elsewhere presupposes that we're never going to improve completion techniques, or discover cheaper ways to fracture rock, or handle the 2:1 water load that comes up with the oil (think reuse and pipelines instead of trucking it to disposal wells). Me? I'm no expert but I think shale oil just saved our asses; instead of escalating a conflict in the Middle East (Iraq comes to mind), we are mostly just imposing economic sanctions on Iran and showing KSA how to run their radar. This is amateur hour when I explain this, but also factual data from someone who loses a lot of sleep about the shale business. I hope this helps, because I don't have a single link to show you and I don't even know where to find one for sure. My only "link" is from putting my money where my mouth is, which probably wasn't the smartest thing I've ever done in my long life. But it has forced me to study like I was back in college, and they say that keeps Alzheimer's at bay.
  23. 11 points
    Protesters have brought this on themselves when they started beating innocent people in the streets, started looting stores, set communities on fire, and started over running the police forces. Not all riots come to National Guard being involved, its only after local police forces lose control of situation and they have. if your solution is to not get National Guard involved and just let this play out on its own then we see things from completely opposite view points. My wife is a RN and makes her commute to a city that is dealing with these protesters right now and you bet your ass I welcome the National Guard if that what it takes to keep these animals from harassing my wife on the way to work or dropping my child off at day care. I know if my town had these rioters making there way down the street past my house I'd welcome them. National guard isn't the problem, Trump isn't the problem, white people aren't the problem, the problem is people who don't know how to function in society and they will hopefully be dealt with one way or another. Its not that I'm not sympathetic, but my sympathy lies with small buisness owners who have lost everything, my sympathy is for the innocent who have been caught up in the middle of this, and my sympathy is with people who really were trying to have a meaningful protest and had all of it overshadowed by these animals.
  24. 11 points
    The Chinese are incredible negotiators. And Westerners, in almost every case, are incredibly gullible. Acting almost as clones, the Chinese: 1. Meet with the target foreign interested concern (FIC) and feign surprise when the FIC "enlightens" them to the possibility of selling the proposed 51%/49% (Chinese/FIC) joint venture's (JV) widgets not only to the FIC's markets, but to the Chinese market as well. This is trap #1. When the FIC thinks they see "enlightenment" in their Chinese partner, they begin to believe they have a motivated (by greed) partner and that this is a restriction (local market) they can get around, with the eager help of their newly enlightened partner. They believe, high on the prospect of selling their widgets to the Chinese market, they have made a breakthrough with this particular partner which will translate into access to markets they have been told they would not have access to. The FIC will report back to headquarters that "even if we only get 1/4 of the Chinese market that is (breathlessly) OVER 250 MILLION CONSUMERS! Now the trap has spread, and the FIC CEO starts making arrangements to expand investment and to make the next trip to meet the partners in person. 2. On the next trip/meeting, the CEO is eager to make an expanded deal; why else would he/she have come all this way? The Chinese partners show them the proposed site(s) for the shiny new JV. The CEO can easily see that the site(s) need an urgent injection of cash, but the Chinese side tells them, sadly, that the government Bureaucracy in charge of providing JV capital moves very slow. That everything else is ready to move forward, everything, just not the Chinese side's money. So sorry. Trap #2 - The site(s) may not even be under the Chinese partner's control, let alone ownership, AND, more times than not they never had any significant capital to begin with. Undeterred and seeing his opening, the CEO will pledge to get the JV a generous $1-5 million cash advance from the FIC's side immediately after returning to headquarters (some are even more efficient and make the transfer before they leave China). The Chinese partner will show amazement at the FIC partner's capabilities and commits to getting the site(s) up and ready for production to begin right away, say 6 months' time? In fact, could the FIC partner go ahead and send some or even all of the production machinery necessary? 3. The FIC CEO confers with his "delegation" to see if they could send machinery too. They decide it is possible, but they would need to have "their man" on the ground for the installation. The Chinese side, acting a bit humbled by such gestures of goodwill, consider this. They know they can get the machinery through Customs, which is a big job anyway and nobody can be sure how long it will take (about 1 week ), but they have not made accomodation for a foreign worker yet. And since they don't know how long it will take for the machines to clear Customs (maybe 3 days ), it's probably not a good idea to have the FIC's man sitting in a hotel for weeks, just waiting there. The Chinese will suggest that the FIC go ahead and send the machines AND the floor plans and they will try their best to get the plant set up by themselves. Trap #3 - The only things the Chinese partner wants are the floor plans and the machines, one of which will be "lost" for reverse engineering. The CEO will again confer with his "delegation" and decide, why not, we have a signed contract (in a country with no neutral arbitration and contract laws that favor ONLY the Chinese partner), and they make the arrangements to send the Chinese everything they need. They agree that a working team will return in 6 months, if all goes well, to get the machinery up and running, begin training the local staff (which doesn't exist) and get ready to open the production lines. 4. Six months later and the working team arrives. They are met at the airport by an interpreter and transported in a NEW small fleet of high-end western cars and vans to their hotel to rest for a day or two. Then they are taken to the JV site(s), where they immediately see that nothing has happened. The machines are there (minus 1 that was apparently "lost") but still in their crates. The buildings have not been cleaned and upgraded as promised and there are very few people around except for a shabby looking security guard. AND the Chinese partner's senior management team is nowhere to be found. Back to the hotel, calls are made to headquarters who order the working team to demand a meeting immediately with the Chinese partners. Frantic interpreters promise to make this happen, and it does a few days later Mind you, the meeting is with the newly appointed senior management team and nobody has met before, except maybe the interpreter is the same as the first meetings. They also note that the interpreter has another "trainee" interpreter with him/her. The team soon learns that the Chinese partners are in Beijing working on approvals for licensing and funding (still)! The team plods forward with their meetings in an effort to find out what is going on and what is needed to get things back on track (250 MILLION CONSUMERS ARE WAITING!). It slowly comes out that there was a big misunderstanding (or quite a few actually). You see, the Chinese side says, we meant that we needed the machines to prove to the authorities that our FIC partners were serious. They thought that would get the government to release the funds needed to get going. "Didn't you understand that?" More phone calls, more delays. "No, that was not what we were told" The interpreter is called out in the middle of the meeting and berated severely, as all of this misunderstanding must be his/her fault! The interpreter is replaced on the spot by (isn't that handy) the less talented but available "trainee" interpreter. Assurances are made that this embarrassing set of circumstances will not be allowed to happen again. So, back to business. Where were we? Oh yes, so where is the $X million we sent you? What? The interpreter didn't tell you what that money was needed for either? Lots of heated embarrassed discussion goes on in front of the team, and then, slowly, it subsides. Silence. The team leader asks the new interpreter: so what do we do now? Shrug. Just wait a moment please, Manager Xi is waiting for some information and must talk to the partners. Let's meet again tomorrow, okay? Tomorrow. Manager Xi informs the team where the money that was sent before had to be used (don't mind those shiny new vehicles outside): X had to be used to pay off old debt (What?!), X had to be used to pay off old electric bills and upgrade the electrical supply for your machines, X had to be paid to Beijing for approvals, X had to be used to staff the JV (still no sign of these people), etc. etc. etc. The team asks "So, is there any of that money left? (No, sorry) What about the funding from your side? Has that been approved/released?" Answer "No, that's why the owners are in Beijing, and it doesn't look good. They think it might take another few months, or maybe, maybe, a little bit longer. Trap #4 - They can't get up and running without another injection of cash. This goes on for month after month until you have a working factory, you have given over your blueprints and designs (because what would happen if any of the machines were to breakdown in the middle of production? And that's what they demand in exchange for 250 MILLION CONSUMERS WAITING! Finally, if they don't need your expertise anymore, they will trump up charges against your company and your team and throw the lot of you out, never to return. There is no real recourse in the Chinese courts, and YOU agreed to those terms anyway. You have no leg to stand on, and may well be on your way to bankruptcy, while the Chinese own your designs and your markets and your sales contacts and everything else. Have a nice day. Sorry it didn't work out. I saw this play out dozens of times and the U.S. Consulate people I was in contact with shared devastating numbers of times that this same scenario was replayed. We're talking thousands of companies every year. And I guarantee you there are still companies going in today that will fall for the same things, all in the pursuit of those same 250 MILLION CONSUMERS(!) that have absolutely no interest in your widgets.
  25. 11 points
    In my personal opinion, there are simply too many people involved in the issue who simply want to make a buck or a reputation out of this pandemic at this point.
  26. 11 points
    "I have read repeatedly in articles that some types of oil reserves and some of the equipment used for extraction can take damage when production has to be stopped, implying that you cannot simply pause production and restart once demand bounces back. Could you please help me out with explanations and links to understand why this is the case? I am aware of economic damage which can endanger the company, I am asking explicitly for technological/geological/chemical/physical factors here. " It is a huge question, from a Petroleum Engineering perspective equivalent to how long is a piece of string, but I am going to take a shot at it anyway as a 34 Year PE how could I resist. Please accept that these are broad brush strokes, there will always be exceptions, the range of reservoir and fluid types that we work with and produce is vast; but I will lay out some 'rules-of-thumb' that will demonstrate the majority of cases that would result. In the majority of cases, shutting in a well will result in increased production post shut-in, for a variety of reasons but mostly due to the increased pore-pressure as the draw-down into the reservoir is eliminated and the average near wellbore pressure equates with the average reservoir pressure. Increased pore-pressure due to the elimination of draw-down, this means that when the well is started up, as the drawdown into the reservoir is redeveloped that there is more available pore-pressure for the Productivity Index (PI) to work with, assuming not on a fixed choke at the surface. Increased pore-pressure, will have multiple effects on solution-gas (e.g. if the Pressure Build-Up PBU crosses the bubble-point), condensate environments (or the dew-point), other depositional environments (some other phase envelope), again resulting in improved flow before the lower-pressures re-establish themselves. Increased pore-pressure, will reduce the effective stress (Terzhagi), which will result in less stress on the proppant pack in a hydraulically fractured well and unpropped or natural fractures retaining more conductivity; this is the reason why some parties carefully manage post-frac flowback for example (to minimize stress on a proppant pack). Gravity segregation, depending upon duration, certainly within proppant-packs (several 1,000 Darcy) this would be a real effect and water/gas/oil would separate, that could have a positive or potentially slightly negative effect on well restart, though in time the balance would likely be restored. ... In some cases, shutting in a well will potentially result in reduced productivity, for a variety of reasons some of the biggest culprits of which I will summarise here Cross-flow, with more than one reservoir open in a vertical (or multiple fracs in a horizontal), variation in near-wellbore pressure will result in crossflow taking place during shut-in, debris, solids, water and unwanted material can cross-flow into these zones, this is particularly bad with cased/cemented/perforated as perforations can plug (surging on start up with the additional pore-pressure available can help). Waxes, Paraffins, Hydrates and other depositions in the Tubing/Wellbore, some wells are so paraffin/wax prone that to shut them in without thoughtful suspension can make start-up a difficult operation, wells like this should be circulated and soaked to a sympathetic fluid, note this is also an opportunity to soak a stimulation in these wells. ... This list is not exhaustive, every cup of tea I have I am sure I could add another 2 or 3 items, but some of the major effects noted here, on the whole I would say that there would be little detrimental behavior. I have also noted that Waterflood has come up a few times, and I believe that the misperception is that the water is sloshing around in the reservoir like water in a tank. The reality is that the velocities of the streamlines are very low indeed, and in fact I would go as far as to say that there is as much evidence that stopping and starting a waterflood could be beneficial as there is indicating that it could be damaging. Interestingly not great deal of work in the published arena in this area, but i expect there will be some pretty eager MSc students right now.
  27. 11 points
    Jimmy, he is briefed on the oil price. I doubt he has it on his laptop. If the briefer gets it wrong, so does he. I really do not think people realize how much information Trump, or any Head of State, is juggling in their heads at any given time, let alone in these times. To expect Trump to be an expert in, and knowledgable about, each and every industry or issue is irrational.
  28. 11 points
    Just spitballing: Suppose there's no deal and prices stay low. Shale production dips temporarily, but stabilizes the second oil prices rise, a la 2014-2016. Shale workers suffer, the US loses its net exporter status, and OPEC retains some market share. Most OPEC nations can't balance their budgets at these low prices, so allowing the market to run its course merely delays their inevitable decline while introducing price instability. Overall, not a great result for the US. Suppose there's a deal and prices increase a bit. Those prices still won't be high enough to stimulate much shale drilling. The net benefit to shale workers would be negligible, the US would still likely lose its net exporter status, and US consumers would lose the benefit of ultra-low prices. OPEC still experiences that long-term instability. It doesn't seem like there's much in this for the US. Suppose there's no deal, but the US government decides to protect its market share. This could be accomplished through a cocktail of tariffs, sanctions, waived regulations, fast-tracked project approvals, reduced royalties, low interest rates, letting OPEC nations fall into chaos, and perhaps even actively stoking conflict. Prices would rise little more than if the US struck a deal with OPEC, except this time the US gains market share, protects shale workers, remains a net exporter, etc. There's a lot for the US to like about this scenario. All of that said, does the US really need to strike a deal? It seems to me that we hold all the cards. Why not lend shale oil some support while letting OPEC producers fight among themselves? It would be easy to keep the industry afloat until the dust settles. On that note, there's a ready-made conflict brewing in the Middle East: Iran keeps chucking missiles at US bases. Meanwhile, the US appears to be withdrawing troops to Western Iraq. From this location, it's more difficult for Iran to target US troops - but those troops remain perfectly capable of unleashing chaos. I also noticed that Trump has ordered the military to prepare a plan for striking Iranian-backed terrorist groups. What happens to Iraqi oil production if conflict erupts on its soil? What happens to Saudi production if there are more attacks on its infrastructure? Bad things, I imagine. And we're one incident away from that happening. Now, if I were the intelligence agencies, generals, and elites planning such disruption, I'd want to do it with a minimum of damage to my own economies. The problem in the past was that any disruption to Middle Eastern supplies would cause skyrocketing oil prices, upsetting The Voters. Today, that seems not to be the case. We have plenty of new production queued up, inventories are rapidly reaching their upper limits, there's a domestic industry to protect, citizens are distracted by a pandemic, and oil traders have been conditioned out of their old panicky habits by the Saudi infrastructure attack. If there were a time to initiate Middle Eastern chaos, the next 2-3 months would be it. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how the US walks away from this empty handed.
  29. 11 points
    Let’s see....the world is set up to run on oil. The world is now swimming in CHEAP oil. Yep, guess you’re right, it sure looks like the end of the oil era! You can apply your EUROPEAN Green Deal to Europe if you like, but please leave the rest of us out of it while you freeze in the dark.
  30. 11 points
    Illegal immigration is ILLEGAL. The EU really is turning into the Borg collective. Happy I'm back in the U.S. where it is slightly less Borgy. See 90 second video in this tweet: https://twitter.com/OrtaineDevian/status/1231426342933000192 Quote from EU official to media: "Criticism of migration will become a criminal offense. And media outlets - that also concerns you - that give room to criticism of migration, can be shut down." Hey EU ministers, illegal immigration is ILLEGAL. Illegal immigration sucks, and the EU should feel bad that criticism of it is going to be illegal. Apparently EU ministers are unable to handle legitimate criticism. Will this forum be shut down in the EU because this forum (so far) allows me to criticize illegal immigration? P.S. all the EUphiles here - please feel free to criticize me. I can take it. Illegal immigration is destroying the EU. Illegal immigration is destroying the U.S. Don't like what I said? Let's debate it civilly, instead of making it illegal in the EU to say what I just said.
  31. 11 points
    MbS is a little boy who never was told no. Putin probably told him that it wasn't feasible for them to turn down production in Siberia, and he didn't take it well and three a hissy fit. The point is patience: with time, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will go bankrupt. People are telling him that, as best they can. When you have a guy like that in charge of about 50% of the world's oil, you get messes like this. Again, this isn't Putin's doing. This is on MbS. He is a child. I doubt he lives to be an old man. With his foolish act he has harmed some very important people very badly.
  32. 11 points
    Guys, The OPEC members are national oil companies, the Russian firms are also essentially national oil companies. That said, cuts can be mandated by the government. The companies in the US are independent from the government. If the government tried to impose a cut, not only would it be ignored, it would be illegal (price fixing). You are trying to compare apples to oranges.
  33. 11 points
    Utter Claptrap Clickbait BS. Have you heard of The Flu? Every year 300,000 to 600,000 DIE, dead, tits-up from the flu. About 60,000 - 80,000 people died in the U.S. last year from the Flu. A billion people at least get the flu each year. Yet people keep flying. It's hilarious to me how much people freak out when one of these novel viruses comes out. The Ebola scare was the best. SARS was fun as well. The U.S. media acts like the world is coming to an end because a few hundred or thousand people catch a novel virus and a few (dozen?) die. People buy duct tape and plastic.... Yet Every Single year 60,000-80,000 Americans die all around you from the Flu and nobody gives it a second thought. Your neighbors go in the front door of the hospital upright, come out of the basement in a black body bag at the rate of 450 people every day (450 because the flu is a Winter Sport... it happens over about 6 months). The word NOVEL is the key. It's new, so freak out! Oil prices will collapse, world travel will stop, people will stop going to work, sure.... Why? Because it's not the old way 600,000 people per year die from a virus... It's a NOVEL Way that a few hundred or even a few thousand people will die. HIDE YOUR CHILDREN!!! P.S. I look at the Flu Vaccine every year (and I get one). They are anywhere from 10-20% effective. If your car was 10-20% effective you would sue the car maker and there would be federal hearings. But, somehow the flu vaccine industry can make garbage and get free advertising scaring everyone into getting a shot, that doesn't work. I get one because my doctor gives it to me for free, but they are basically a placebo. Good Luck... hope you survive this CoronaVirus Scourge! If a Coronavirus became a worldwide "plague" and killed 100,000 people a year it would still only be 1/6th as bad as the flu. If it went crazy and killed 2 million people a year by year 3 it wouldn't even make the news anymore. People would just get used to it. "They" all die of something and "I" will never die. Human nature. Governments are happy to let people be afraid of nothing (like ebola) in order to scare up a hundred billion in spending, but something that's actually endemic like Flu is considered "under control" because everyone get's a placebo shot that makes them feel like it can't affect them. If coronavirus gets truly bad the "scare tactics" will be replaced with "nothing to worry about" tactics and a fairly useless shot to make you feel immune.
  34. 11 points
    People will blame each and every catastrophe or change in recent weather patterns on climate change...whether there is any scientific evidence or not. If you can’t identify the cause, just blame it on climate change! It is then politically incorrect to argue with you.
  35. 11 points
    P.S. getting used to the cold weather again here in the U.S. Been a couple decades. Wearing bright colors because it is deer hunting season, and I want hunters to be able to see me when I'm walking around. My family shot 4 deer on opening day of deer season. Going to be eating venison all winter. I've been labelled locally as "borderline hyperactive" which sounds about right, except for the 'borderline' part. Fun to be adventuring again, and totally enjoying the freedom to freely speak my mind again without the very real threat of being arrested or worse - just for saying words.
  36. 11 points
    After researching Polar bears, this professor concluded that their populations were actually thriving, counter to what previous scientist have said. The polar bear has been a poster child for global warming alarmist, their plight analogous to so many other species if the global warming crisis isn't abated. So, when a scientist's comes out with evidence contrary to that narrative, the thing to do would be to peer review the research and confirm its validity, right? Nope, these days that professor is fired, their academic credentials discredited, and their research is ignored. Climate alarmists rely on broken and politicised pseudo-science. Evidence to the contrary is completely ignored or treated as hostile. Only the most extreme consequences are endorsed as it fits the sensationalism of the alarmist narrative better. Speak out against that narrative, with credible research, and you're fired. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/20/susan-crockford-fired-after-finding-polar-bears-th/ If this kind of thing isn't a red flag to people in the alarmist camp, then what is? To be 100% clear, I'm not suggesting the research of this scientist negates all other research done by other scientist in the field. I just think it's incredible that taking a opposing stance to what is popular means you should be fired. Science is about being skeptical and challenging ideas. If healthy skepticism and reviews aren't encouraged, then it's all unsubstantiated drivel.
  37. 11 points
    Still, tribute needs to be paid to Aubrey McClendon and Tom Ward. Mr. George Mitchell made fracking for natural gas a reality down in the Barnett Shale, but it was Aubrey who latched onto the concept and developed the Haynesville Field. Remember, before those two events, the United States was screaming, our presidents saying that we were going to run out of natural gas. Aubrey was a gun-loving gunslinger who overpaid for minerals more than I do, and that's saying something. God bless him, he didn't realize the magnitude of what he'd wrought until it was too late. Everyone was used to conventional wells. He saw these gigantic numbers and swung a deal with the board so he could take a pretty good percentage of each well. By the time he realized the rapid decline curve, it was too late. He would still have been alright if he hadn't played the stock market so hard. Anyway, while the history of fracking is long (creek water jazzed with napalm pumped into a well in the old Kanas Hugoton Field), it was Mr. Mitchell who discovered the sickness, McClendon who created an epidemic, and people have had fracking fever ever since. Chesapeake would likely have survived if Aubrey had . . . he was so charismatic he could not only get gas out of a rock, blood out of a turnip, but money from the tightest-fisted Wall Street banker. Looking backward, it seems like they were drunken fools. However, during a precarious time in history, the frackers--especially those at Chesapeake--made us secure in the knowledge that domestic natural gas was in abundance. And God bless them for that.
  38. 11 points
    Copying this delicious comment in full. Great overview of the story so far. https://np.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/d98t4d/asking_for_it/ Let me break this down from a fundamental standpoint. Joe Biden, the former Vice President of the United States has just been caught extorting Ukraine to keep his son out of trouble. His son, Hunter Biden, who was kicked out of the Navy in 2014 for cocaine violations and arrests, is not a man of integrity. This is the same man that cheated on his wife, with his dead brothers widow. Just a few weeks after his Navy discharge, and also in 2014, despite having absolutely no experience, Hunter gets a 600k per year job (that’s 50k per MONTH!) on the Board of a Ukraine energy firm. This despite having no experience in the the energy sector and not knowing how to speak a word of the languages used in Ukraine. After a short period of time, Ukraine has had enough of him. They appoint a prosecutor to go after him for alleged crimes and do what prosecutors do. This doesn’t sit well with Joe Biden. Not at all. Joe Biden, while still Vice President, calls Ukraine and tells them that if the Prosecutor is not fired immediately, the United States will not be sending them the 1 BILLION dollars in aid that we normally send them. Now think about that? This is YOUR tax dollars that he’s using as leverage to stop a criminal investigation on his son. That’s a huge problem. Of course Ukraine immediately fires the prosecutor because they desperately need the aid that the United States provides. Also, Ukraine has to rehire New prosecutor (get ready for this) that Biden himself has to approve. Is this not Crazy! Now fast forward to present time. President Trump during a recent phone call speaks to the new Ukraine President congratulating him on his win. During the conversation President Trump mentions Biden. Alleging that he has possibly committed a crime. The Ukraine President says that he is aware and has been wanting to talk with President Trump about that. How does President Trump know about this? Because Biden is very stupid and talks about doing exactly just that during a recorded video. It’s in the video that President Trump tweeted out personally on his Twitter feed yesterday. Now of course before President Trump tweeted this, Biden when questioned about it, played dumb. He also lied and said he has never spoken to his son about any of his son’s out of country business adventures. He even gets mad at the reporter and starts yelling that he should not be investigated, but that Trump should be. So a “whistleblower” (it was just released that his lawyer, who organize the whistleblower’s statement, donated to Biden’s presidential campaign) goes to the press (The New York Times) and says Trump called the Ukraine President and that he 8 separate times, in a hostile phone call, pressured the Ukraine President into investigating Hunter Biden and Joe Biden for doing the above mentioned. The Ukraine President states that he very much remembers the phone call and that it was a very pleasant phone call and President Trump absolutely did not pressure him or threaten to or deprive his country of anything. He also acknowledged that his government was threatened by Joe Biden by withholding aid if the Biden issue wasn’t dropped. But oddly enough, at least for the first few days, the press didn’t mention the sins of Joe and Hunter. And in the New York Times piece about the “whistleblower”, if you read past the headline, and towards the very end of the story, you’ll see that the The New York Times slips in the fact that the “whistleblower” DOESN’T have any direct knowledge of the phone call and didn’t hear it personally. Seems like a handy piece of information to have upfront, doesn’t it? The person saying this happened never heard it themselves! That’s not a whistleblower, that’s gossip. But what does Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi do with that gossip? She foams at the mouth and calls a press conference saying that she is launching an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. An impeachment inquiry! Over unverified gossip! Does that Sound desperate to you? She accuses President Trump, based on information from said “whistleblower” who never heard any part of the phone conversation, of threatening to withhold military support to Ukraine unless the investigation into the Biden’s is resumed. She is accusing the President of a quid pro quo. Which is EXACTLY what Joe Biden did. The only problem is that no such thing happened with President Trump. She held that press conference, yesterday, BEFORE SHE OR ANYONE ELSE, HAD POSSESSION OR EVEN READ THE DAMN CONVERSATION TRANSCRIPT! President Trump approved the White House to release an unedited, Non-redacted transcript of the entire phone conversation. That’s what a victim does, not criminal. And guess what? They did just that today. And again guess what? It’s nothing like what was reported. I read it. It’s not even close. During the conversation President Trump says Joe Biden has recently been bragging about what he did for Hunter and that a lot of people in America are concerned about it. He he wants to find out what happened. Totally within his right as an American President. The (newly elected) Ukraine President tells President Trump on the phone that he’s putting together a cabinet and will be selecting a team to investigate the claim. That’s it, nothing hostile, no mention or allegation at all of President Trump threatening to withholding military aide like the media and Pelosi said. President Trump didn’t keep bringing it up 8 times. Absolutely fake news. Now that the White House released the phone call, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of her posse should be embarrassed for jumping the gun with the announcement of an impeachment inquiry. Biden, who even as a former Vice President, can still be impeached (would lose all pension and benefits among other things) should step out of the presidential race and await his fate. This is actual political corruption. Criminal political corruption. Not just an ethics violation. And it absolutely should be dealt with at the highest level of our courts. So did President Trump have a right to ask Ukraine to help look into a possible matter of corruption involving them and Vice President Joe Biden? Absolutely. Treaty 106-16 is a document signed and passed in 1999 that allows for Ukraine to cooperate with mutual legal assistance on any matters with the United States. FUN FACT: Joe Biden was even in that Congress. Shhh. Don’t tell the democrats.
  39. 10 points
    The world have negative views on Trump is perfectly understandable. Their mainstream just use US mainstream as sources, and I am sure every country's citizens and government, they love to hear another country in trouble politically or economically, maybe except US citizens don't seem to care about EU, which is strange to me. POTUS doesn't do lock down for cities or states. State Governors do because they are responsible for their states and President cannot fire Governors. Blaming Trump for states' failures is just similar to blaming Ursula von der Leyen for Italian Covid19's deaths. Each US state have their own healthcare and tax system, and their own economy, similarly to each EU member. And for people who say Trump should concentrate on Covid19 instead of Obama gate or Joe, precisely how do you suggest him to concentrate in anything if you are constantly attacking him? Should he read the statistics everyday or making policy,? How many states listen to him and relax the lock down order? Should Trump make an executive order to pass the next stimulus without the Congress to pass it? Is that the president's job? Bush and Obama both have critics on them as they didn't stop their vacations on national disasters while Trump at least is working harder than any of them in this Covid19. And I am sick of people compares EU presidents/prime ministers to US President while all of the countries have their own problems and even Obama was performing better in economics performance than most of big EU leaders. I just don't understand their mindset. I have never heard any one in the US talk bad/good about an EU leader, they just don't care. Did US own anything from EU? Feel free to make your own countries great again if you have a better government or leader. If President Trump is a clown, how about Secretary Xi? Scary Strategic Partner? EU even soften report about Covid19 cover up in China, bravely. And they didn't even listen to Trump cancel the 5G deals. China is biggest debtor of World Bank. The interest China has to pay is 1%. In BRI grand projects, each countries are borrowing from China with the interest rate of 6%. WTO cannot enforce the law when China breaks it. So who are clowns?
  40. 10 points
    Because since 1945 the US has had to gag on their own bile and agree to pretty much protect Saudi Arabia from destruction while at the same time pay them pretty much whatever they asked for a barrel of oil. The United States basically groveled for 65 years, importing ten million barrels of oil per day at ghastly prices, watching these morons fly one of their 20 jets, cavorting away to one of their many palaces, always with a hundred-man entourage. Take up the entire Georges V in Paris. Women. Whatever they wanted. And then the United States sort of tumbles into this half-assed way of getting oil out of tombstone rock, and lo and behold they become pretty good at it, and then they're producing more oil than Saudi Arabia and the KSA can barely stomach this--they're the ones gagging on their own bile. But back to retracing history . . . Over the course of 65 years, the United States of America has made a shitty little tribal bunch of inbred ingrates filthy rich. They've mostly tossed it into the wind. Everyone wants to talk about how the profligate Shale Cowboys have pissed it away . . . . man, that's nothing, not even a drop in the proverbial bucket compared to what these "royal" cousins can do to a billion bucks. And now, because of who knows what sort of perverse deal, what sort of crap is known, what sort of corruption, we have to watch these assholes demand the deal, snicker behind their robes, knowingly and dishonestly jack up the numbers. Why the hell do you think it might be hard for the US to make an announcement agreeing to cut production? Yeah, it's pretty damn baffling to me too. Me? I'd throw the bastards to the wolves--there are plenty of them out there who'd like to tear these guys a new asshole. And before this is over, that's exactly what we'll have to do. Sorry, bud, but I think your friends are calling. Answer, please, while they're still on the line.
  41. 10 points
    ^ Thanks for posting. Data--mostly anecdotal--should be leaking out by now about HCQ. This virus is a very cunning little sucker! A researcher has found that 2-deoxy-d-glucose will inhibit Covid replication in cells, even in such small doses in the cell culture medium that it is safe and doesn't kill the culture cells. A "prodrug" is being developed for that and shouldn't be very hard to manufacture. 2-deoxy-d-glucose is merely glucose that has a 2-hydroxyl group replaced by hydrogen, so it cannot undergo any further glycolysis but will competitively inhibit glucose-6-phospate synthesis for energy inside the cell. The answer may be something as simple as this: starve the virus, selectively, for glucose. Get the thesis: human cells are obviously replicating all the time but, in absence of cancer, at a constant rate. Whereas a massive infectious bolus of Covid-19, replicating furiously within respiratory tract epithelial cells, would eat up "fake sugar" preferentially. In other words, treat it like a malignantly replicating cancer cell with selective poisoning. Pretty novel idea. I hope it works. I'd sure like to see something simple and safe stop this devious little bastard!
  42. 10 points
    If I ever start to feel worried I listen to your President and obvious my own PM who might have got off to a bad start but I think he is following Trumps lead to a degree especially after recently announcing they will re-evaluate the partial lock-down we have in place in just 3 weeks time (similar to Trump's plan). You guys have an amazing president (probably the best for decades), he has a very calming effect and shows true leadership. There is still massive panic and people spreading fake stories about what you can and cannot do but maybe that was needed for the less intelligent to start listening and stop overcrowding the shops and going on holiday etc making things worse. I've lost all my work now for the forseable future but strangely I feel very positive. I think this virus will pass as will the hysteria and once the medical services get the extra support they need the restrictions on what people can do will be lifted. I've snoozed anyone on facebook who posts anything about this virus, I have stopped paying attention to the hysterical media who gleefully report each and every death to gain clicks. I've started on the garden now the weather is nice and started to think about ways to improve my health after years of severe stress and worry caused by the volatile oil industry. Now they are getting a handle on the virus and economy I have full faith they're going to work on rebalancing the oil market whether it be by carrot or stick. US energy independence is not a gift that should be thrown away. Best of wishes to all of you including those that will not agree with me. I am sure things will get better eventually.
  43. 10 points
    H1N1 had a vaccine in short order. Nobody said Zika would kill us, it was just going to hurt babies. Mosquito control is rather easy if you have money. There is not enough evidence for any treatment at this point to get rid of social distancing. Sorry, but trump just doesn't want to hold the reins during the one of the greatest economic collapses of all time. It might not be entirely his fault, but nobody wins reelection when the public is unemployed and fearing death so he wants to downplay this. Wear the silly red hat at funerals and in the unemployment lines?
  44. 10 points
    President Trump hopes to reopen the economy by Easter if possible. We now have treatments and plenty of equipment that can be used. We need to throw all our resources at the critically ill but most patients will recover on their own and without hospitalization. The aged need to stay home but the rest need to get back to work as soon as possible. Otherwise we will have more damage to our economy than it can take. One is as important as the other in keeping us all healthy physically, mentally, economically, and emotionally.
  45. 10 points
    Expensive oil, eh? Try rolling an oil barrel into Starbucks and load it with your favorite latte. It'll cost you $3,700--despite the fact that while oil requires a million years to mature, coffee beans get right to it. Peasants grow most of them. They're easy to harvest, ship, roast and brew. Then drive out to an oilfield--ANY OILFIELD--and see what goes into harvesting a cup of oil. I have heard so much bullshit about expensive oil that I think I'll throw up the next time. And "expensive oil" had very little to do with the financial crisis. As I recall that was taking about a hundred million mortgages, slicing and dicing them into tiny pieces, putting them together in packages that no one could undo and selling them for a massive profit. No one went to jail. I don't know where you're from Geoff, or how old you are or even what level of education you have. And I'm not trying to pick a fight. But before you go talking about "expensive oil," at least visit an oilfield. I suspect you use plastics. Maybe pharmaceuticals. You likely learned to drive an ICE vehicle. Maybe you've had a surgical procedure. You couldn't have done any of those things without oil products. Please! For Christ's sakes, I don't mind if you go say this stuff at a cocktail party, but try not to insult us, will you.
  46. 10 points
    Unfortunately. He's 78, with coronary artery disease. He's a wealthy socialist. He would totally ruin America. Surely the younger population will come to their senses at some point. If not, there's probably not enough of them to vote him in. No matter what you feel about Trump, he's about the only viable candidate for the office at this dispositive point in time.
  47. 10 points
    Does anyone else feel that this whole corona virus thing is being blown out of proportion?
  48. 10 points
    Just because a magazine sticks her on their front cover for a month doesn't mean the Western world has chosen her. She has been exploited by the very people who should be protecting her which is abhorrent IMO. The 2 things are very different. Climate activists see a young girl who isn't scared to voice her opinions on a subject she is misinformed on as their poster girl. That's exploitative and just plain wrong. The Western world, from what I have seen, rightly thinks she is the victim of this whole thing and genuinely feels sorry for her. The people behind this are to blame, not Western society.
  49. 10 points
    Readers here should remember that the US Bankruptcy Courts are NOT what they are in say the UK or Canada. The BK courts exist for the specific purpose, declared by Congressional Statute, of rehabilitation of the Debtor. Usually, this means that the secured creditors get together and agree on a rehabilitation plan, which may (and typically does) result in some haircuts, and the unsecured creditors get a few pennies on the dollar. If there are wage contracts that are onerous, the Court disposes of them. If there are supplier contracts that are onerous, including royalty contracts, the Court disposes of them, also. Bankruptcy Court is designed, not to "fold" a company, but to rehabilitate it - and that process can be brutal on creditors. Just to give you a bit of the flavor of how this works, I glance over to the United Airlines bankruptcy. Now, in its heyday, Xerox was making a ton of money. So some bright young hire from some MBA School suggested that Xerox set up Xerox Leasing, and purchase and finance fancy aircraft from Boeing and lease them to United, so that United could have a straight operating lease, and Xerox could capture the depreciation to offset against other income. Sounded great, the young maverick finance guys at Xerox all got bonuses for their brilliant thinking - and United headed into the ashcan. In the bankruptcy, due to the collapse of air travel after 9/11, United went back to those Xerox guys and said, in effect: "You know those fancy planes you have on lease to us for $200,000 a month? Well, from here on it, you get $50,000 a month. You don't like it, we will fly the planes to that boneyard in Arizona, you can go pick them up any time." Now, what is Xerox going to do with all those planes? There is no market for them. Who is your customer going to be? Air Zanzibar? Air Congo? Those guys don't have any money. You are stuck. You have exactly one customer - United Airlines, and they both cannot pay you that 200K, and have no inclination to pay you. So you eat it and take that 50K, it is still the best deal you can find. Otherwise your planes pay you zero sitting out there in the desert. So Xerox takes the deal, eats the losses, and fires the smart MBA types who dreamed up that folly. And what you learn from this is that the BK Court can whack you in the shorts if you are a creditor, so don't get all carried away with your subordinates' bright ideas, most are folly soon enough. Now, back to the oil patch: How about these Chesapeake guys? Can they pull it off in a Chapter 11? Well, if there is a Battle Plan (known as the Chapter ll Plan of Rehabilitation), and you can float it past the Chapter 11 Trustee and the US Trustee and the BK Court Judge, then you can pull it off because you have cost-shifted some of your debts onto the shoulders of your creditors. It does not stop you from drilling, from pumping, from selling. What it does do is put a halt to your bleeding, to service the old debt. Valving off debt is a specialty of the BK COurts. If you are the creditor, now is the time to start quaking in your boots. Don't ever delude yourself that a bankruptcy petition is the end of the road for any company. As long as there is no Section 363 bid for the assets of the company that the US Trustee is going to support as being in the best interests of the parties before the Courts, it is the creditors, not the Debtor, that will be on the losing end, when the dust settles. That is how it works in the admittedly unique US system.
  50. 10 points
    Just for the Record: 1. You are assuredly not an asshole. If I want to find assholes, I head over to Wall Street. Lots around over there. 2. You are most definitely not a communist. I would be hard pressed to come up with a more Capitalist guy. 3. You are assuredly not "ignorant." You know whereof you speak. ------I read your posts with great care. Personally, I find I learn quite a bit from them. Cheers.