OPEC EXPECTED TO CUT - WHERES THE CUT FROM UNCLE SAM

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 3/5/2020 at 11:33 AM, BLA said:

United States is a Free Market Economy

The strongest Economy in the world.

Russia can pressure U.S. to cut production all they want.  Not gonna happen. 

No need to cut US production really just don’t cut themselves and watch the fireworks show. Free marketeers can get fairly nasty.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

[El Nikko + 2,145]

What's the rule on swearing on this forum? 😭

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Nosedives-As-OPEC-Fails-To-Strike-A-Deal.html

This is going to get brutal

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

[wrs + 893]

Looks like the rest of the world is going to operate on the same free market basis as we do here in the US.  You have to take the good with the bad and so if you don't want to lose more money, pump less, or not.  I thought it was funny that the result of the meeting is everyone gets to pump what they are comfortable pumping.  Anyone pumping more at this point would have to be considered pretty stupid I think.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

More bad news, at least for me. Illinois is totally controlled by Democrats now so they are enforcing solar storage for central and southern Illinois where the conservatives are. How about Chicagoland? Not sure yet. https://www.wandtv.com/news/videos/ameren-to-construct-solar-battery-storage-facilities-in-downstate-illinois/video_1dd6c1ef-1290-5301-aa30-9873da09ed19.html

[Zhong Lu + 845]

No one is cutting.  The end has come.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[El Nikko + 2,145]

5 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

No one is cutting.  The end has come.

Until Chinese production restarts, I saw an estimate saying end of March if we are to believe it.

The world economy (as it is right now) cannot go on without Chinese manufacturing.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The end has come... until late March.  Then we'll reevaluate.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 3/5/2020 at 11:39 AM, Old-Ruffneck said:

30$bbl on WTI? Hovering around 45$ right now, I doubt 30$'s range is in near future. Might hit 40 before a rebound in next 2 weeks but then is the time to buy, by September it should be back in upper 50's to lower 60's$ range.

@Old-Ruffneck It amazes me how much difference a few hours makes That $30Bbl isn’t so crazy now.

Our industry needed a correction not on prices on sectors which have ruined the global oil industry and cost thousands of US jobs in The E&P and service sectors.

Lets start building rigs again, Korea here I come again.....

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

4 hours ago, wrs said:

Looks like the rest of the world is going to operate on the same free market basis as we do here in the US.  You have to take the good with the bad and so if you don't want to lose more money, pump less, or not.  I thought it was funny that the result of the meeting is everyone gets to pump what they are comfortable pumping.  Anyone pumping more at this point would have to be considered pretty stupid I think.

Very good point. And the free market system--much better than a rigged OPEC hanging onto Russia--will figure out the proper value for a barrel of crude oil. But damn it, I'm not going to give up on this, if the TRRC would just enforce Statewide Rule 32 on venting and flaring, this glut problem would be over. They are a lot of the problem, IMO.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Very good point. And the free market system--much better than a rigged OPEC hanging onto Russia--will figure out the proper value for a barrel of crude oil. But damn it, I'm not going to give up on this, if the TRRC would just enforce Statewide Rule 32 on venting and flaring, this glut problem would be over. They are a lot of the problem, IMO.

It sounds like a very sensible idea. I wish some of our members would start pushing the idea in Austin. It would certainly align with my goal of reducing the waste of natural gas through flaring. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, James Regan said:

I replied then read your post again, I think this is Putin’s chance to achieve something he has wanted for a while with zero blame, and it’s a temporary glitch but perfect for him to ask the question or send a message, let’s see!

Are the Russians making more money per barrel exported as we are domestically in our own market? There are big advantages when you are benefitting your own economy by lowering domestic prices for fuel. I do want the oil and natural gas industries to prosper and the Trump administration will surely hear about what they need to do to help. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Until Chinese production restarts, I saw an estimate saying end of March if we are to believe it.

The world economy (as it is right now) cannot go on without Chinese manufacturing.

An ideal opportunity to set up duplicate plants in America, Mexico, Canada, friendly S.E. Asia, Central and South America etc. I don't know if we have anyone coordinating such a plan for the country aside from what individual corporations do. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

An ideal opportunity to set up duplicate plants in America, Mexico, Canada, friendly S.E. Asia, Central and South America etc. I don't know if we have anyone coordinating such a plan for the country aside from what individual corporations do. 

That is what I think could happen due to the 'virus'. Call me what you want but I do feel like the coronavirus is being blown way out of proportion by the media. Moving manufacturing back to the US and South America makes perfect sense.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

To hell with this. Buying oil for a pop on Monday.  It's oversold and 40 should provide some sort of bounce.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, El Nikko said:

That is what I think could happen due to the 'virus'. Call me what you want but I do feel like the coronavirus is being blown way out of proportion by the media. Moving manufacturing back to the US and South America makes perfect sense.

Something that the American Chamber of Commerce should be doing. Oh, I forgot, they are preoccupied with bringing in cheap foreign labor to keep wages down.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

To hell with this. Buying oil for a pop on Monday.  It's oversold and 40 should provide some sort of bounce.

I agree it is a good idea, but I am not a trader. Good luck. I would say buy and hold. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

@Old-Ruffneck It amazes me how much difference a few hours makes That $30Bbl isn’t so crazy now.

Our industry needed a correction not on prices on sectors which have ruined the global oil industry and cost thousands of US jobs in The E&P and service sectors.

Lets start building rigs again, Korea here I come again.....

James, I agree....but I am taking a stab here and once China starts back up it's going to suck the extra 2mbd it's turning away now. I still feel the 40$ mark will be about as low as it goes, I do see as springtime here in USA consumption will slowly rise. For investors with loads of extra cash, now is time to buy. Sure it could fall slightly more but chances are it's going to go up. This virus scare will last only so long. Rig count this week is up a tad bit, that's a surprise.

[0R0 + 6,251]

Recovery in China is picking up. As of Mar 4th.

Migration of labor - essentially back to normal.

Coal consumption is -36% still but growing rapidly was as bad as -50% at the height of the quarantine. 

Freight logistics at -22%, recovering rapidly 

Travel is -51% and will likely take months more to recover.

So there is good reason to believe there will be a resumption of 80% of the 6 mob/d loss of consumption from China by the end of Mar. Transport will remain subdued. 

The key piece of good news is the freight logistics recovery. 

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

[James Regan + 1,776]

12 hours ago, El Nikko said:

That is what I think could happen due to the 'virus'. Call me what you want but I do feel like the coronavirus is being blown way out of proportion by the media. Moving manufacturing back to the US and South America makes perfect sense.

The US unfortunately are not up to date in attitude of knowledge of the affects of the virus in the USA, only now are you starting to see the doubling each day of the positive cases and this is with only testing 1500 people, I find that number akin to ostrich behavior, the cases will quadruple over night and only fuel the fear factor. 
Its coming so be prepared for what’s on the horizon. 50,000 tested in the UK and only 1500 Its beyond negligence.

Hysterical behavior is what is presently apparent over all markets, The USA is a very hysterical nation not all are as informed as I would say 100% of all on this forum. With bipartisan news freely available whom thrive on hysteria the outlook is not bright for the next few months in USA.

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by James Regan

[El Nikko + 2,145]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

The US unfortunately are not up to date in attitude of knowledge of the affects of the virus in the USA, only now are you starting to see the doubling each day of the positive cases and this is with only testing 1500 people, I find that number akin to ostrich behavior, the cases will quadruple over night and only fuel the fear factor. 
Its coming so be prepared for what’s on the horizon. 50,000 tested in the UK and only 1500 Its beyond negligence.

Hysterical behavior is what is presently apparent over all markets, The USA is a very hysterical nation not all are as informed as I would say 100% of all on this forum. With bipartisan news freely available whom thrive on hysteria the outlook is not bright for the next few months in USA.

 

I see the MSM as a very big part of the problem, I would say even 10 years ago people could trust the media to a degree and feel informed. I think there is a huge amount of people who now don't trust them at all especially with the hysteria or boy who cried wolf mentality from previous virus's. I have talked to loads of people and I think the majority seem to feel it's being hyped up. If this time they have actually been informing us correctly it will have very serious consequences.

In the UK as you have probably heard by now we've got the PM and health secretary telling us that there is no need to stockpile food etc, not to change our daily routines unless very old, not to wear masks they don't work (which is clearly not true) and that the symptoms are mostly very MILD. A day later the head of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations actually compared this with WW2 which is utterly rediculous and no doubt an attempt at getting more money from the Government.

Who to trust?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

The US unfortunately are not up to date in attitude of knowledge of the affects of the virus in the USA, only now are you starting to see the doubling each day of the positive cases and this is with only testing 1500 people, I find that number akin to ostrich behavior, the cases will quadruple over night and only fuel the fear factor. 
Its coming so be prepared for what’s on the horizon. 50,000 tested in the UK and only 1500 Its beyond negligence.

Hysterical behavior is what is presently apparent over all markets, The USA is a very hysterical nation not all are as informed as I would say 100% of all on this forum. With bipartisan news freely available whom thrive on hysteria the outlook is not bright for the next few months in USA.

 

How is the US any more hysterical than anywhere else? A gross generalization James...

[El Nikko + 2,145]

9 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How is the US any more hysterical than anywhere else? A gross generalization James...

There's plenty of hysteria here but it's mainly coming via the TV (which I don't watch and haven't for years), radio and 'news' papers.

From the outside it would probably look like the UK is in panic mode as well. The media are lazy these days and just trawl twitter and facebook for things that could easily not be true...for example it's been widely reported that some supermarkets are running out of toilet paper and some food yet I don't know anyone who has personally witnessed that.

Has anyone here seen anything that suggests people are starting to panic?

[El Nikko + 2,145]

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opinion/article/I-have-the-coronavirus-So-far-it-isn-t-that-bad-15093664.php