Italy - tragedy of epic proportions unfolding. Should be on total lockdown. 49 deaths today like would be 1130 in China cause 23 times less population

[Marcin2 + 724]

49 new deaths in Italy today , 197 in total

778 new cases today out of 4000 people tested, 25%.!!!!!

In comparison to population it is like 1120 new deaths and 18000 new cases in China.

It is crazy.

Italy should be in total lockdown.

Whole population quarantined, at least Northern Italy.

No economic activity, state of emergency with ARMY

on the streets making sure people stay at home - more or less like Wuhan at the worst days.

[Marcin2 + 724]

I do not know why it is not globally top news. Just visited CNN - no info at all.

I think China could not be more grateful than ever of the US media frenzy when situation in China became criical.

Maybe domestically it did not have direct daily impact cause people are behind great wall of censorship. But still information was received by people, Chinese diaspora, VPN, decrease in censorship in critical days.

China used total might of strong autocratic, in these days even totalitarian country able to actually confine to home prisons 50-100 million people, immediately.

I do not see this attitude coming to Italy. Maybe I exaggerate but numbers from latest 3 days are simply devastating.

I do not prize China, in long term even death of thousands of Italians is probably better than autocratic government. But being 800 miles away from this madness NOW It is not easy to acknowledge this. 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

49 new deaths in Italy today , 197 in total

778 new cases today out of 4000 people tested, 25%.!!!!!

In comparison to population it is like 1120 new deaths and 18000 new cases in China.

It is crazy.

Italy should be in total lockdown.

Whole population quarantined, at least Northern Italy.

No economic activity, state of emergency with ARMY

on the streets making sure people stay at home - more or less like Wuhan at the worst days.

I don't expect Italy to respond in the China fashion. They will likely employ massive testing and quarantine the positives. Avoid dense gatherings. There is a question of how many test kits they had on hand. The question is why their death rates are so high, And their rates of serious and critical cases is too. S. Korea with 50% more cases has 1/4 as many deaths and 1/10 as many serious or critical. What is wrong with their medical treatment? I knrow that cleaning staff and practical nurses  of hospitals in W. Europe are largely immigrants. Could their training be so poor that they are infecting patients?

Do you know if the spread is predominantly in old folk's communities like the nursing home in Seattle?  Or in hospitals?

[Marcin2 + 724]

As of 06 March 2020 South Korea tested 130,000 people and identified 6,284 cases (4.8% positive).

Withing these cases: over 2,000 under 30 with 0 deaths, 1,600 aged 30-49 with 1 death and 1,200 aged 50-59 with 1 death.

Detailed info:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

Whereas in Italy as of 06 March 2020 only 36,359 people were tested with 4,636 cases ( 12.8% tested positive).

On 06 March 2020 alone 4,000 tested and 778 positive (19.5%)

It is worth noting that until 27 February Italy had similar positive % of people tested ( 650 cases out of 12,014 tested; 5.4%) as South Korea.

Detailed Italian info from wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy

Demographics of both countries is similar, mature, both clusters in densely populated, urban areas, I do not know further details.

Opinion: Around 27 February 2020 the Italian testing became less extensive than South Korean. (I do not know why ?) Maybe healthcare was overhelmed by the epidemic, maybe currently testing only serious cases, much less testing of asymptotic people or people outside the high risk groups.

In Germany as of 06 March 2020 : 710 cases and 0 deaths, their testing net seems to be even wider than South Korean.

Generally I think that number of deaths, (provided that death causes are properly identified, like postmortem testing of all people with similar symptoms before death), could be indicator of the epidemic spread. Also provided that similar anti-viral therapy is administered.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Marcin2
typo/added German data

[Marcin2 + 724]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I don't expect Italy to respond in the China fashion. They will likely employ massive testing and quarantine the positives. Avoid dense gatherings.

I hope that Italian response will be as effective as Chinese quarantine of 50 million people on 23 January.

At the moment of lockdown of Hubei: there were 530 official cases and 17 official deaths in China.

Taking under consideration probable inadequate identification and testing of the disease in China (assu,me South Korean death rate 0.85% of people with virus as an indicator) it could be about 2,000 cases.

Virus carriers could be asymptotic for weeks, it is very contagious, people in urban areas have hundreds of interactions each day. So I do not believe testing is a solution, unless you close borders and test whole country, each person, each quarantined at home, in 1-2 days.

Unfortunately for Italians and fortunately for many other nations (Americans and Poles amoong them) we will know how effective is testing and soft, quasi voluntary isolation measures before disease could devastate also our countries.

 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Italy was one of the first outbreaks out of China and is now at a more advanced stage of the epidemy. The other countries are at an earlier stage but will catch up in the coming weeks. The quarantine measures in China took some weeks to invert the infection curve.

We can't dodge the virus but some measures can help to slow the spreading and protect the elder people who are more at risk. In Italy the average age of the victims is 81 years.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Guillaume Albasini

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay, let’s all hoard food, water, gasoline, propane, smut magazines and whiskey. Let’s then avoid going to work or any other form of association with fellow human beings. After 3 weeks or so we can emerge to see if the virus is still with us and do we have a job...even if you do, the global economy is in tatters so you won’t have one for long.

The shelves of the supermarkets are bare, anarchy reigns and your neighbor kills you for your whiskey and smut mags.

Or, fancy this, you can take normal precautions as you would do with any virus, carry on with your life and let the professional medical people do their jobs. Don’t listen to the asinine mass media (or Marcin2) as that leads to the previously described scenario where you lose your life, smut mags and whiskey!

[Hotone + 412]

2 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

Italy was one of the first outbreaks out of China and is now at a more advanced stage of the epidemy. The other countries are at an earlier stage but will catch up in the coming weeks. The quarantine measures in China took some weeks to invert the infection curve.

We can't dodge the virus but some measures can help to slow the spreading and protect the elder people who are more at risk. In Italy the average age of the victims is 81 years.

Head of Italy’s co-governing Democratic Party tests positive for coronavirus

From CNN’s Livia Borghese in Rome

Nicola Zingaretti – the head of Italy’s co-governing Democratic Party (PD) – has announced that he has tested positive for coronavirus, confirming in a video statement on Saturday that he is now in self-isolation.

"So, it has arrived, I also have the coronavirus,” Zingaretti said in a video shared on his Facebook page, adding that he is “well” and currently in self-isolation.

“My family is also following the protocols and the local health unit is contacting the people who have been close to me in recent days,” the PD Secretary added.

Zingaretti, who is also the President of the Lazio region in Italy, called on citizens not to panic and said he will “set a good example by following the instructions” of health officials.

[Marcin2 + 724]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Or, fancy this, you can take normal precautions as you would do with any virus, carry on with your life and let the professional medical people do their jobs. Don’t listen to the asinine mass media (or Marcin2) as that leads to the previously described scenario where you lose your life, smut mags and whiskey!

This is not any virus, this is a VERY SPECIAL virus:

- carriers could stay asymptomatic for a long time (even 2 weeks),

- it is very  contagious,

- relatively lethal with 2-3% death rate.

Some stranger coughs into your direction and you have on average 2-3% probability to die if over 60 ?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

How did the virus spread so rapidly in Italy? I've yet to see an answer to that, but I have a theory. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

There is also dipping your fingers in holy water at the entry to the church. 

I always thought of Catholicism as an exercise in building immunity. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by 0R0

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

How did the virus spread so rapidly in Italy?

Edited March 7, 2020 by Ward Smith
Double post?

[El Nikko + 2,145]

[Marcin2 + 724]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

There is also dipping your fingers in holy water at the entry to the church. 

I always thought of Catholicism as an exercise in building immunity. 

When I was a child and a teenager   going to church every week, I had no idea that holy water and holy communion can spread bacteria or viruses. Sometimes holy communion is also wine ( it is on a very special occasions and with only 50 or so people present) and we were all drinking from the same chalice ( goblet), but the priest used some rag, which he rubbed against the side of chalice where previous person drinked wine. It was 20 years ago I hope current practice is different.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Marcin2 + 724]

5 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How did the virus spread so rapidly in Italy?

I was at KFC when at the mall. I ordered French fries. When taking the order I asked about a plastic fork for the fries. The guy at a counter told me that he does not have any cause they are now going green and decrease usage of plastic.

I was supposed to eat with my hands as everybody does.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

I live in Switzerland less than 200km from the Italian border. As a country bordering northern Italy, Switzerland is taking some exceptional measures to try to contain the spread of the coronavirus. As today there are 268 cases and 1 death in the country.

The government has banned all major events with more than 1,000 people until at least March 15, 2020. Events of over 150 in principle also need to get the go-ahead from cantonal authorities. Big office buildings, public transports, ski resorts or army barracks are not affected directly by the ban at this stage, as individual hygiene measures can be applied there.

Major cancelled events include the Geneva International Motor Show, the Baselworld watch fair, and the International Film Festival and Forum on Human Rights in Geneva.  All top-flight Swiss football and ice-hockey games have also been called off, as have numerous local social and cultural events.   

In order to prevent the spread of the virus as much as possible, those affected have been isolated. Anyone who has been in close contact with a sick person, i.e. less than two meters away for more than 15 minutes, must also remain in quarantine for two weeks. 

Authorities also recommend a certain amount of “social distancing” – that is, when standing in a queue, for example, or attending a meeting, to keep a certain distance away from those around you.

Recommendations for the world of work have also been issued, such as not traveling at peak commuting times and being able to work from home when possible.

Those worried about a possible case are advised to phone the doctor’s office first rather than showing up in person. The cost of a test (CHF180) will be reimbursed by basic health insurance as of Wednesday March 4, the health office announced.

The government issued this poster :

[Hotone + 412]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How did the virus spread so rapidly in Italy?

Is it rainy season in Italy? 

World's shortest horror movie

Edited March 8, 2020 by Hotone

[Marcin2 + 724]

13 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

Italy was one of the first outbreaks out of China and is now at a more advanced stage of the epidemy. The other countries are at an earlier stage but will catch up in the coming weeks. The quarantine measures in China took some weeks to invert the infection curve.

We can't dodge the virus but some measures can help to slow the spreading and protect the elder people who are more at risk. In Italy the average age of the victims is 81 years.

But I think that Italy is still far from peak new cases. Today 6,000 tested, and 1,246 new cases.

A few regions with high number of new cases, or number of new cases rising geometrically latest 2-3 days.

Lombardy had 80 new cases per 1 million of population just today. It is relatively on per capita basis already over the peak intensity of cases in Hubei - the worst hit Chinese province. And the numbers are still rising very fast in Lombardy.

Situation in Switzerland is also deteriorating very fast: geometric rise in new cases: 17, 30 , 96 (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday).

It does not look like all is under control. Virus present in all cantons.

[Marcin2 + 724]

Good news, now Italy started to take coronavirus seriously, better late than never:

16 million people on lockdown from Sunday:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/07/italy-lockdown-entire-lombardy-region-including-milan-venice-12364976/

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”

- Chicken Little (Corona Virus Expert)

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

To have an idea of the spread of the epidemic the number of new deaths is perhaps a better indicator than the number of new cases. The Swiss labs can now manage 1000 tests daily so the number of cases is increasing faster than in countries doing fewer tests.

Compare the number of deaths to the number of cases and you can have an idea of the extent of the testings. South Korea and Switzerland have done extensive testing and the number of death is less than 1%. In countries doing few tests the fatality rate is higher.

Just compare 1 death for 268 cases in Switzerland and 19 deaths for 437 cases in the US. Once the US will start to do more testing the number of cases will rise. I suspect that in the US the real number of cases is probably 3 or 4 times higher than the reported number. And the problem is that these unreported cases are not quarantined and are currently spreading the virus.

[Hotone + 412]

New York declares state of emergency as coronavirus cases rise

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/7/21169516/coronavirus-new-york-state-emergency-cuomo

I lived in Milan a few years back.  It now seems like the city is going to be in lock down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/italy-plans-to-lock-down-milan-area-nations-financial-hub-in-effort-to-contain-coronavirus.html

Edited March 8, 2020 by Hotone

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

“Two or three weeks ago, we were still hoping for containment,” says Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University. “We’re really past that. ... The horse is out of the barn.”

One reason has to do with what we’ve learned about the virus itself: There’s now evidence that people who do not show severe symptoms can spread it silently. Another reason is the slow rollout of diagnostic tests in the United States and other countries like Italy and Iran: We don’t have a precise case count or know where the virus might be spreading.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

I was at KFC when at the mall. I ordered French fries. When taking the order I asked about a plastic fork for the fries. The guy at a counter told me that he does not have any cause they are now going green and decrease usage of plastic.

I was supposed to eat with my hands as everybody does.

Napkin

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Hotone said:

New York declares state of emergency as coronavirus cases rise

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/7/21169516/coronavirus-new-york-state-emergency-cuomo

I lived in Milan a few years back.  It now seems like the city is going to be in lock down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/italy-plans-to-lock-down-milan-area-nations-financial-hub-in-effort-to-contain-coronavirus.html

I would say it is too late for Milan and Lombardy the idea would have made a difference two weeks ago. By now it is just too late, and is doing unnecessary damage. Hope they don't sign it. Panic lockdowns are not a solution. Test widely as soon as you can. Quarantine those who actually have the virus. If you don't have tests then don't bother as lockdown will not prevent the spread as it is already latent in the communities across the country.