The Sky is Falling for Oil

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Just look at the prices.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

It's teddy bear time.  

EDIT: Currently hugging a teddy bear and mentally sobbing like a little girl.  

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Frankly, if this continues any lower I may as well just go and buy on Monday.  The funny thing is that despite today, assuming oil can hold 30, I'm still up this month.  Just not as much as I had hoped.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The 4 stages: Denial, Anger, Grief, Whateverness.

Denial: no point. The number's right there.

Anger: Also pointless.  What are you going to do? Get angry at a bunch of numbers?

Grief:   See posts above. Note the teddy bear hugging and the mental tears shed.

Etc.

Now.  Would I buy oil at 32? Yes.  Seems a little oversold with a giant gap above.  I understand there's corona and fears of recession, but we're overdue for a pop.  Consequently, no point in selling.  Only question is whether I want to add.  

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Ok, this is what I'm going to do:

1.  Not going to buy more because it's possible some hedge fund just blew up and they're forced to liquidate.

2.  Hold.  Sell at 45.  

3.  If it drops even more, go all in.  I mean, I don't care if there's a recession.  Oil prices can't stay under 30.  It's uneconomical.  

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

[Zhong Lu + 845]

There has to be a bottom.  It's a commodity.

Other option: sell everything.  I'll be break even / positive for the month.  Forget everything that's happened. Despite the hit today my account is fine.  Stop trading for a month.  Go all in oil if it hits 20 or natural gas hits 1.3.  Frankly, despite my best efforts I'm probably a little tilted right now. 

Intuition and charts saying there's a gap that needs to be filled. So holding.  I'll sell at some point, but not now.  This drop was overdone.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

[oilexpert.nl + 36]

Overreaction!! Margin calls, see repomarket 115 billion, was 100 billion. So banks/traders need 15% money to do their business today. Logical when you look at the dive of oil prices. When people are forced to cover their positions there is panic. Expect market to recover this week.