Willing to Bet Several Large Funds Being Liquidated Right Now

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Hence the continued selling.  Ugh.  But buyers appearing to step up at 30.  

If you got caught selling the wrong options, you're just dead.  Most commodity hedge funds simply aren't designed for 30% swings overnight in oil.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I think you're entirely correct: this is the end for several very large participants. 

And make no mistake, this is bad for the stability of oil. 

In short, I think we'll wake up tomorrow and there will be no steady hand on the tiller.

In such a vacuum, it is not hard to see oil at $15/b.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Now you're just being mean and trying to get me to sell.   Too transparent, man.  30 is holding.  So I think I'll hold.  Not going to add to a losing position, but no reason to sell it now. It's overdone.

If it does drop to 15, I reckon I'll go all in.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

30 is NOT holding.  Wondering whether to sell first thing in morning and buy back in the afternoon or to hold.  Hrmmmmmm.  

We're in liquidation selling now.  By morning it could be all over.  The funny thing is this: "I've been through worse."  Didn't think penny stock experience would apply to WTI.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[J.mo + 165]

2 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

30 is NOT holding.  Wondering whether to sell first thing in morning and buy back in the afternoon or to hold.  Hrmmmmmm.  

We're in liquidation selling now.  By morning it could be all over.  The funny thing is this: "I've been through worse."  

Idk what the shakeout will be, but I'm sure this is algorithmic stop loss selling, and the humans will take back auto pilot in the morning. Now whether that will be a dead cat bounce or not is on you, your money on the line lol

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

17 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

30 is holding.

30 just fell. And no, I'm not being mean, just realistic. There.is.no.bottom.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

1 minute ago, J.mo said:

Idk what the shakeout will be, but I'm sure this is algorithmic stop loss selling, and the humans will take back auto pilot in the morning. Now whether that will be a dead cat bounce or not is on you, your money on the line lol

Not a lot of money anymore, at least not in that position.  Ugh.  There was this little voice in my head asking on Friday evening: "are you sure you want to hold this (bought at Friday lows which seemed like was worth a bounce play)?" And I was like "hey, why not. I"m up big right now.  What's the worst that can happen?" 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

2 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

30 just fell. And no, I'm not being mean, just realistic. There.is.no.bottom.

It's not like I can do anything right now and frankly losses from this point onwards are minor.  Most of my money is in cash but this will wipe out my profits for this year.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Well, on the flip side, there will be a bottom somewhere. But I learned in 1991 that it can kill you, paralyze you, make you wish you'd never heard the term oil. 

What MbS did was throw a temper tantrum. The man-child has never been told no. He couldn't imagine a world where he wasn't in control.

Well, he's not in control. Not of OPEC. Certainly not of Putin. And for the first time in his life, he is all alone. 

Something big is coming. I don't pretend to know what, but I do know that the world cannot exist as is without the lifeblood of oil and no one in the world can make a profit or maintain a sovereign on $25 oil. So something will happen. It make take two years, which will totally gut the House of Saud, but I don't thin even the Saudis are that dumb. 

Just as this "big something" happened out of the wild blue, something else will too.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I've been through worse.  But this has blindsided me.  Never expected oil to trade like a penny stock.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

16 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

30 is NOT holding.  Wondering whether to sell first thing in morning and buy back in the afternoon or to hold.  Hrmmmmmm.  

We're in liquidation selling now.  By morning it could be all over.  The funny thing is this: "I've been through worse."  Didn't think penny stock experience would apply to WTI.  

Time to head for the HILLS, Zhong!😂

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Should have stayed there.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

Looks like we have a first rebound of some size. Watch for liquidations and margin call selling at noon London and Noon NYC time when margin clerks ask for collateral. If we rebound out of those again, then look for bottoming patterns and loss of downside volume. Should at least be worth a trade. 

I don't have any more downside targets left till new signals show up. 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

The funny thing is this all happened over a single statement and some extra discounts, there has been no huge increase in production from anyone yet.

Here's a wacky theory, if Shale production was going to start falling anyway (as predicted by some people) then OPEC and pretty much anyone else can claim to have defeated it after this

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Out on the pop.  Profits this year gone.  Otherwise fine.  Out performing the S&P though. LOL.