Analysis into the Iran Outbreak

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

4 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Do you think a Democrat president would reverse all that Trump has done so far with trade with China? tariffs etc?

No I'm genuinely intrigued and want an American perspective on the question as frankly I don't know.

Trump reversed much of what Obama put in place, which is generally well received on this forum. I am presuming if the same happened to Trump were he to lose the election then most of what Trump has put in place will also be reversed?? or would it???

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Biden has said that China is NOT a problem. His family has been virtually gifted millions in the form of business profits. It is common knowledge. Virtually no coverage from our fake media. Fox and Breitbart have covered it. A book by Peter Schweizer called Profiles in Corruption is the best source. 

China is a global problem surely??

Even a socialist perspective can see that I would've thought.

Media in most countries are too powerful and their bias has huge influence on Joe public voters. Most people cannot see through the BS that they spout (BBC for example in the UK). The sad thing is we end up with idiots in power who are there for their own self interests and not the good of their country and the people they serve. This is what I don't like about the EU parliament. It is also what I do like about Trump as he just does and says what he believes is the right thing for his country and the people in it. He has to be admired for that IMO, although a lot of times he speaks before he thinks, but that's pretty much the same as me lol.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

48 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

China is a global problem surely??

Even a socialist perspective can see that I would've thought.

Media in most countries are too powerful and their bias has huge influence on Joe public voters. Most people cannot see through the BS that they spout (BBC for example in the UK). The sad thing is we end up with idiots in power who are there for their own self interests and not the good of their country and the people they serve. This is what I don't like about the EU parliament. It is also what I do like about Trump as he just does and says what he believes is the right thing for his country and the people in it. He has to be admired for that IMO, although a lot of times he speaks before he thinks, but that's pretty much the same as me lol.

America is already a welfare state and we have the national debt to prove it. I am very concerned about our profligate spending, even on defense. We spend more money on defense than the rest of the world combined. We need to adopt all of the least expensive defensive strategies possible. I am also in favor of more attractive opportunities for new reservists to train for a few months and meet up for training once a month or whatever. I also believe in the Swiss policy of having them keep their weapons at home with a firm understanding that their guide is the Constitution and Bill of Rights above all else. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by ronwagn
error

[REAL Green + 65]

This is article could be too optimistic:

 

“The U.S. Government Is Preparing For An 18 Month Pandemic And "Critical Shortages"

https://tinyurl.com/uj9bcxd     the most important news

 

Are you prepared for the nationwide shutdown that is happening now to last for the next 18 months?  You may not believe that such a thing will happen, but the federal government apparently does.  A 100 page government plan marked “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release” was obtained by the New York Times, and it paints a very bleak picture of what is coming. 

If the projections in this document are anywhere close to accurate, large numbers of Americans will die, the U.S. economy will completely implode, and we will see widespread civil unrest.  So let us pray that the assessments in this government plan turn out to be dead wrong.

[TooSteep + 142]

No way this takes anywhere near 18 months to wrap up. Do not underestimate highly motivated biotech/biomed entrepeneurs, and even big pharma. There should be firebreak therapeutics to prevent frontline workers and high-risk individuals within 3 months. And at that point everyone can go back to normal.

Human trials started 3 days ago for this one:

https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-trial-starts-today/

These guys have a very, very smart and motivated team:

https://www.abcellera.com/news/2020-03-abcellera-and-lilly-codevelopment

DARPA has your back.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

 

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Do you think a Democrat president would reverse all that Trump has done so far with trade with China? tariffs etc?

Trump's big failure with China stems from the fact that he declared trade wars with all of America's allies - Canada, Mexico, Europe, Japan, etc - and then was surprised that no one would help him with a trade war with China. Instead of being able to provide a united front, we've ended up with a long-running trade war that has required stimulus to keep the economy from sinking.

I would expect that a Democratic president would ease up on allies and get consistent effort to support a negotiation with China. There's lot's of leverage that can be used, the question is what is best for the US (first) and world (second) in the negotiations. Top priorities are obviously going to be around corporate espionage and patents, but it's a bit early to say what else to prioritise - especially with the likely decent-sized recession on the horizon.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

43 minutes ago, TooSteep said:

No way this takes anywhere near 18 months to wrap up. Do not underestimate highly motivated biotech/biomed entrepeneurs, and even big pharma. There should be firebreak therapeutics to prevent frontline workers and high-risk individuals within 3 months. And at that point everyone can go back to normal.

Human trials started 3 days ago for this one:

https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-trial-starts-today/

These guys have a very, very smart and motivated team:

https://www.abcellera.com/news/2020-03-abcellera-and-lilly-codevelopment

DARPA has your back.

Even better is that China has been testing a Japanese antiviral in clinical trials. If it is half as good as early indications show it would reduce the mortality hugely: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

Slow down the problem and let's hope tech can save us.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

29 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Trump's big failure with China stems from the fact that he declared trade wars with all of America's allies - Canada, Mexico, Europe, Japan, etc - and then was surprised that no one would help him with a trade war with China. Instead of being able to provide a united front, we've ended up with a long-running trade war that has required stimulus to keep the economy from sinking.

I would expect that a Democratic president would ease up on allies and get consistent effort to support a negotiation with China. There's lot's of leverage that can be used, the question is what is best for the US (first) and world (second) in the negotiations. Top priorities are obviously going to be around corporate espionage and patents, but it's a bit early to say what else to prioritise - especially with the likely decent-sized recession on the horizon.

Trump never declared a trade war with anyone that I can recall. He called for free and fair trade. The trade negotiations with China may have escalated due to the severity of their practices however. 

No other modern president ever held China to free and fair trade, they all just went along with the plutocrats who were making billions in China. That was the easy way to go and it led us to a very bad situation eventually. President Trump deserves much credit for turning the tide.

Now we have better trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. Soon with Great Britain also. I don't know about the European Union but they are very prickly IMO. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

11 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Trump never declared a trade war with anyone that I can recall. He called for free and fair trade. The trade negotiations with China may have escalated due to the severity of their practices however. 

I agree wholeheartedly that Chinese steel dumping and corporate espionage are a problem, and it is overdue for a solution. The next president must use the leverage that Trump has created, but can add additional leverage of allies to force a solution. Few politicians of any stripe that are against a trade war with China, but many would argue with how it's been run.

Trump imposed unilateral steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU.  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/trump-carries-out-tariff-trade-wars-with-china-eu-canada-and-mexico.html.  He's also been threatening the EU with more car tariffs.

He also pulled out of TPP which was meant to create a Pacific tradeblock to counter China if China began to swing its economic might at its neighbours. A security agreement of sorts. While TPP was rescued when Canada and Japan upped their game, all of the nations, other than Canada, have been cozying up to China since.

Europe was also concerned about Chinese steel dumping, but once the EU was punished for protectionist reasons they had no incentive to take part in a trade war.  The TPP countries couldn't afford to take part because they no longer had a backup trade agreement with the US if things went south with China.

Trade allies were a huge weapon in a trade-war arsenal and could have been used to isolate China in trade.  Instead, China has been able to leverage western disunity to expand its trade to America's erstwhile partners.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I agree wholeheartedly that Chinese steel dumping and corporate espionage are a problem, and it is overdue for a solution. The next president must use the leverage that Trump has created, but can add additional leverage of allies to force a solution. Few politicians of any stripe that are against a trade war with China, but many would argue with how it's been run.

Trump imposed unilateral steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU.  https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/13/trump-carries-out-tariff-trade-wars-with-china-eu-canada-and-mexico.html.  He's also been threatening the EU with more car tariffs.

He also pulled out of TPP which was meant to create a Pacific tradeblock to counter China if China began to swing its economic might at its neighbours. A security agreement of sorts. While TPP was rescued when Canada and Japan upped their game, all of the nations, other than Canada, have been cozying up to China since.

Europe was also concerned about Chinese steel dumping, but once the EU was punished for protectionist reasons they had no incentive to take part in a trade war.  The TPP countries couldn't afford to take part because they no longer had a backup trade agreement with the US if things went south with China.

Trade allies were a huge weapon in a trade-war arsenal and could have been used to isolate China in trade.  Instead, China has been able to leverage western disunity to expand its trade to America's erstwhile partners.

My take on it is that these other trade partners were like a herd of cats and could not be corralled  so Trump had to go ahead on his own. You make a fair point though. 

[REAL Green + 65]

"My take on it is that these other trade partners were like a herd of cats and could not be corralled  so Trump had to go ahead on his own. You make a fair point though."

 

I don't think we are going to be worried about trade policies anymore.  We are going to worry about being on the wrong side of value chains that are no longer functioning.  We are going to get a 2x4 up side the head of the dangers of complexity compounded with complicated systems of a global supply network.  We are going to struggle to repair value chains albeit more local ones.  If our global civilization survives this pandemic then less globalism is assured not more.  That can be a good thing in regards to forced adaptation to small scales of economies and social connections.  It is apparent now how fragile this arrangement had become.  There is hope then for this shock we are in.  We as a global people may find a better level of sustainability.  I use better relatively because this will be a poorer world and by no means safe.  It appears this will be a multi-year process of decline if we can learn to cooperate.  War will be the end of us all and a crisis like this might lead to war if too many fingers get pointed.

[canadas canadas + 136]

Confusion, chaos within the regime, local officials absent in Qom, Isfahan, no one to respond

The Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) announced this afternoon, March 18, that the death toll for the Coronavirus disaster in 196 cities across Iran has exceeded 6,400.

Added to other provinces, the number of victims in Qom is 790, in Tehran 800, Gilan 763, Isfahan 620, Khorasan 581, Mazandaran 530, Golestan 393, Khuzestan 207, and Hamedan 204.

The reports from the city of Qom indicate that contrary to the regime’s propaganda, there is an upward trend in the number of victims. The mortuaries are overloaded, and people openly curse at Khamenei (regime’s supreme leader) and blame him for their plight. Many clerics have left Qom, where the outbreak first began.

In Qom, Isfahan and some other corona-stricken cities, local authorities have left the city and do not show up for work for as long as they can, leaving lower rank officials to deal with the crisis. Most communications with the provincial and governorate offices, the municipality, and other state-related offices are left unanswered. This situation points to growing confusion and chaos within the regime.

This is while the regime leaders are deeply frightened about unrest and protests in Tehran and cities such as Qom, Isfahan, and Mashhad. They are particularly nervous about slums on the fringes of the cities while expressing privately that “unrest will erupt in areas such as Shahr-e-Rey, Eslamshahr, and Akbar Abad in the future. People are poor and can’t even afford to buy alcohol and gloves.”

While the outlook of the Coronavirus crisis worsens due to the regime’s incompetence and weak infrastructure,  Hassan Rouhani,  who had previously suggested that the crisis will be over by March 7, 2020, ridiculously claimed that “We have now passed the peak in Qom and Gilan, our two most difficult cities…    In Gilan 20% of hospital beds are empty”!

“One should compare Tehran with London, Berlin, and Paris…and see their empty store shelves. People fight each other over napkins, are worried and upset about their food; their hospitals announce that they have no more empty beds, but we delivered”!

This is while, Alireza Zali, head of Operations to Counter Coronavirus in Tehran, said: “Officials do not have a correct picture of our hospitals. They would realize the depth of the crisis only if they saw the number of hospitalized patients and those in critical condition., “. At the same time, a representative of Rouhani’s Ministry of Health acknowledged that 147 people had died in the past 24 hours from Coronavirus.

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/human-rights/iran-coronavirus-death-toll-exceeds-6400-in-196-cities/

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 3/19/2020 at 4:52 PM, TooSteep said:

No way this takes anywhere near 18 months to wrap up. Do not underestimate highly motivated biotech/biomed entrepeneurs, and even big pharma. There should be firebreak therapeutics to prevent frontline workers and high-risk individuals within 3 months. And at that point everyone can go back to normal.

Human trials started 3 days ago for this one:

https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-s-covid-19-vaccine-clinical-trial-starts-today/

These guys have a very, very smart and motivated team:

https://www.abcellera.com/news/2020-03-abcellera-and-lilly-codevelopment

DARPA has your back.

As far as I'm concerned, there is already a cheap easy solution for the treatment end. Which is why I suppose, China has stopped testing people and just took down the quarantine. And no, there are plenty of new cases in China, just that their current policy is not to test them so they can pretend the problem is over. They have a list of proven treatments including antivirals and HCQ, so a patient can be treated early on based on symptoms and an antibody test and prevented  from developing the full blown disease. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 3/19/2020 at 6:48 PM, ronwagn said:

My take on it is that these other trade partners were like a herd of cats and could not be corralled  so Trump had to go ahead on his own. You make a fair point though. 

As @Geoff Guenther is saying, the TPP was a real block for opposing China. Breaking off of it was a big mistake in terms of a trade war with China. But it was not what Trump had in mind. He did not want a rules based broad trade agreement that excludes China, He wanted a trade deal slanted heavily towards the US mercantile benefit AND excluding China. Which could only be had on a bilateral basis. 

Trump is not playing just fair trade, he is playing a game of high bidder for US protection of trade routes. Contrary to their paranoid thinking and expressions, China is entirely dependent on the US to protect its trade routes because it can't project power outside of the S. China sea. Only hypersonic missiles, which are not useful to protect a large commercial ship from being attacked as it approaches the island chains surrounding the S. China sea. Besides which, their entire posture is to prevent the US from blockading China, which is precisely the opposite of what the US has been doing. Of course, that may change, but the US is far more likely to turn its back and let some enterprising island nation unmarked "navies" pirate oil tankers and grain shipments going into China or container ships leaving it for Europe or the US. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/20/2020 at 12:05 AM, Rob Plant said:

Do you think a Democrat president would reverse all that Trump has done so far with trade with China? tariffs etc?

Absolutely!!!

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

He wanted a trade deal slanted heavily towards the US mercantile benefit AND excluding China. Which could only be had on a bilateral basis. 

This is something I've found really interesting. Recently "conservative" has come to mean mercantile in both the US and the UK. Adam Smith's Weath of Nations was astounding as it proposed the way to get out of mercantilism - and that was capitalism with freer markets. Mercantilism, of course, was finally killed after the Irish potato famine because it favoured the central nation too much, but the capitalism that followed made everyone wealthier.

You're right, it is a throwback to mercantilism where everything is a zero-sum game.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, 0R0 said:

As @Geoff Guenther is saying, the TPP was a real block for opposing China. Breaking off of it was a big mistake in terms of a trade war with China. But it was not what Trump had in mind. He did not want a rules based broad trade agreement that excludes China, He wanted a trade deal slanted heavily towards the US mercantile benefit AND excluding China. Which could only be had on a bilateral basis. 

Trump is not playing just fair trade, he is playing a game of high bidder for US protection of trade routes. Contrary to their paranoid thinking and expressions, China is entirely dependent on the US to protect its trade routes because it can't project power outside of the S. China sea. Only hypersonic missiles, which are not useful to protect a large commercial ship from being attacked as it approaches the island chains surrounding the S. China sea. Besides which, their entire posture is to prevent the US from blockading China, which is precisely the opposite of what the US has been doing. Of course, that may change, but the US is far more likely to turn its back and let some enterprising island nation unmarked "navies" pirate oil tankers and grain shipments going into China or container ships leaving it for Europe or the US. 

China seems to be using small fishing boats and navy boats against smaller countries as well. 

[Trung Nguyen 0]

I don't see the real effect of TPP on China. It is just a political play IMHO.

The TPP countries are Australia, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, Malaysia, Canada and Mexico.

Directly, most of these countries, but Japan & Singapore, mainly export agriculture products, which US produces herself. Join TPP and these countries competes with US in TPP agriculture market (And people in  these countries don't like this themselves, but their govs as a political achievement) and still buy consumer goods from China. TPP will not help the US import less from China or will not make China exports less anywhere else. The competition between US and China is about jobs (in the supply chain),  and investment and TPP doesn't seem affecting these much. I can see Vietnam (cheap), Japan (against Korea ), Singapore(sale, logistics), Malaysia benefit from this.

TPP indirectly can negatively affect Europe, Korea which will push them away from the US but not China.

The supply chains have to be diversified just like any 401k investment. TPP has one flaw is China can just move their factories and their labours to Vietnam as a proxy and continue to benefit. Vietnam is in debt with China, just like Siri Lanka. If China can corrupt US politicians and mainstream, it can corrupt any small country. US try to block China away and China still can hack through it easily. Calling manufacturing back to US follow by a trade war affect China more, or US can try keep complaining and nothing changes.

The COVID19 exposes the mainstream problems. They keep trumpetting the small things and people ignore them on the real things.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Trung Nguyen

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

On 3/19/2020 at 3:43 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

I agree wholeheartedly that Chinese steel dumping and corporate espionage are a problem, and it is overdue for a solution.

He also pulled out of TPP which was meant to create a Pacific tradeblock to counter China if China began to swing its economic might at its neighbours. A security agreement of sorts. While TPP was rescued when Canada and Japan upped their game, all of the nations, other than Canada, have been cozying up to China since.

TPP was a disaster as most of these countries have "free trade" deals with China and China is their main customer. Half are resource dumpers and half are resource grabbers.  These countries had nothing in common.  Certainly not governmental morals. If trade is not tied to morals, there is no such thing as free trade.  And yes, trump should have gone for a united front against ALL dictators, not just China.... but this is IMPOSSIBLE as this means tearing up 100% the WTO and there is no way in Hell that Western Europe would go along with this. Europe is tied to dictator nations to an even greater extent than the USA which is also tied via the WTO... 

Edited March 21, 2020 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Dmitry Bedin + 25]

On 3/18/2020 at 3:54 AM, Boat said:

I read the group most at risk that have the virus is 80 years of age and above. They die at a rate of around 15%. Kinda a far cry from all humans. Lol 

PS Check your math. If all the people on earth die how could it be mostly Americans. You on drugs?

Thank you you for your very good question. I m not, are you?

mostly great americans yep buddy. Just keep watching John Hopkins stats and listen Mango. Springbreakers will deliver pretty soon the “new cases” as you call it

[Dmitry Bedin + 25]

On 3/19/2020 at 9:15 PM, REAL Green said:

This is article could be too optimistic:

 

“The U.S. Government Is Preparing For An 18 Month Pandemic And "Critical Shortages"

https://tinyurl.com/uj9bcxd     the most important news

 

Are you prepared for the nationwide shutdown that is happening now to last for the next 18 months?  You may not believe that such a thing will happen, but the federal government apparently does.  A 100 page government plan marked “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release” was obtained by the New York Times, and it paints a very bleak picture of what is coming. 

If the projections in this document are anywhere close to accurate, large numbers of Americans will die, the U.S. economy will completely implode, and we will see widespread civil unrest.  So let us pray that the assessments in this government plan turn out to be dead wrong.

Pray yep best reps solution to COVID-19 LMAO pray and wash your hands

[REAL Green + 65]

“COVID-19 - Evidence Over Hysteria”

https://tinyurl.com/u6uc97w     medium

 

“After watching the outbreak of COVID-19 for the past two months, I’ve followed the pace of the infection, its severity, and how our world is tackling the virus. While we should be concerned and diligent, the situation has dramatically elevated to a mob-like fear spreading faster than COVID-19 itself.”

 

I highly recommend the above article.  I have read so many lately but this one covers the situation very well.  We as a world probably have overreacted to this virus but that is Monday morning quarterbacking.  There are some very good reasons to shut things down until the infection bulge is contained but we must realize the costs.  It will later be realized the actions taken that were not helpful but actually damaging.  Yet, the quickness of this event that saw rapid escalation once out of China shows that this pandemic is too fast for fully measured action.  There is no way to get it all right. 

 

It is now appearing too late economically to return to the normality of central bank management of the last 12 years.  This is deeper now and will go to the basic level of things made which is a real place.  We have now likely been thrust into a transition to a new normal.  The force of this transition is an insidious combination of supply and demand shock that will affect things made.  The last go around was a demand shock with China ready to transform a nation with stuff made and this transformed globalism. 

 

A real economy is one of things made not just digital wealth.  One must adapt the idea of a real economy is stuff made with if it is not mal-invested things made.  The last 12 years we have seen some very poor economic activity that we will now pay a price for.  This is the much talked about value chains that are now seen as being very fragile and prone to dangerous dislocations.  Digital wealth is the first casualty.  The second will be safety nets and pensions that are in reality unfunded liabilities or unrealistic expressions of value.  Fear dominates and that is very destructive to confidence.  Confidence is the real liquidity of the system.  The real system is things made.  Logistics is the organization of the two.  These systematic relationships are in tatters now so the fear of the virus is a fear of the economy and this leads to an existential fear for survival.  Hang on this will be one hell of a ride somewhere and I hope it is not too far down.   

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/19/2020 at 2:46 PM, Rob Plant said:

For testing positive if what the US said yesterday is correct at 7% then yes if you extrapolate this, however it is on the proviso you test everyone which you won’t obviously.

of those 7% only a tiny percentage will die maybe 1 million over a year or 18 months

 

But there are too many people on the planet anyhow! Just imagine the reduced carbon footprint! The tree huggers, the one’s that survive, should be ecstatic! 

[REAL Green + 65]

“But there are too many people on the planet anyhow! Just imagine the reduced carbon footprint! The tree huggers, the one’s that survive, should be ecstatic!”

 

I am a tree hugger but a realistic one.  I try to reduce my carbon footprint but as I try to live in a carbon trapped world.  To be fair to others who don’t I enjoy footprint lowering strategies and can afford to do it so that makes it easier.  There are too many people and the possibly coming depression (long, short or both?) will testify to this.  Without draconian actions population will run its natural course.  Civilization does immediate draconian action like in this pandemic but never longer terms ones except maybe China’s one child policy.  Civilization can’t control population just talk about it. 

 

In my opinion get out of overpopulated locations if you can.  If you can’t then mentally prepare for problems.  That is some individual advice.  I try to keep my advice local and individual because my mind does not scale well globally.  It is not that I can’t think globally it is more I can’t properly think and live globally.  I can relate to my permaculture farm but I am under no allusions my good life is funded by a rich global world.  I am trapped like everyone else even with 15 years of prepping.  Maybe my difference is I prepared mentally for this depression.  Hopefully the dust will settle without too much damage but with 10 years of bad behavior at all levels I don’t see it.  Maybe we will have some dumb luck as a civilization learning from mistakes and become a stronger global people.  Does that sound hopeful enough?  I am trying.

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

But there are too many people on the planet anyhow! Just imagine the reduced carbon footprint! The tree huggers, the one’s that survive, should be ecstatic! 

Sadly, any reduction in carbon footprint is only temporary. Medium-term it increases our carbon output because R&D is one of the first things to be cut during a recession/depression and there may be less appetite for large expenditure on things like nuclear.

There are a few things that may help us aim for a lower-carbon future, though:

• We may see a reduction in meat consumption. The biggest pandemics have come from swine, chickens, civet cats, and now pangolin or bats. People are conscious that the worst diseases are crossing species.
• More local energy source means less global risk. It may be easier to manage spikes and troughs through local supply.
• Data. Just like with the coronavirus - all the data points to a coming crisis. It's becoming much more difficult to ignore the experts an go with the populists.

I find upside to this crisis somewhat unlikely, other than watching communities pull together. But I would like to be surprised.