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On 3/12/2020 at 9:25 AM, Geoff Guenther said:

Agreed that triage is the path needed. It absolutely is in Africa, but will have spread more slowly because of fewer planes, classrooms, etc. Iran also has a very young population, and has been hit extremely hard. Unfortunately, you don't know that it's a problem until 3 weeks later when infected people have gotten sick and are having trouble breathing.

There is no good outcome to any of this pandemic. For the elderly and infirm it is life-threatening. For the oil guys it's a loss of lifestyle. For the enviros this could set back environmental progress by years. And just like you say, without globalism we can't deal with sporatic famines around the globe.

Loose use of the word globalism. Free and fair trade are not globalism IMO. 

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On 3/10/2020 at 11:03 AM, Geoff Guenther said:

Agreed, and the likelihood of them shaking an infected person's hand is probably quite high during an election period. 

Rather than just take one set of sample data, though, he's used seven different sets to reduce error. All of them have some sort of error associated with them, but when you get enough sets with different error types you can begin to get a picture. The data really says that the number of infected people is somewhere between 500,000 and 5 million, compared to the official 8,000.

Do you have a reference for your high figures? I haven't seen that anywhere. 

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On 3/11/2020 at 9:17 AM, Geoff Guenther said:

As much as I want to disagree with you, China used the tools at its disposal very effectively. Italy didn't take its testing seriously enough, and I don't think the UK has either.

The US administration has promised that this isn't a problem, though, hoping to either prop up the stock market or sooth Trump's vast ego. The virus is two steps ahead of them at any point.

  • First they hoped China could contain it. That proved impossible, much to the joy of the press.
  • Then they hoped borders would keep it out.  In reality the virus was already in the US.
  • Then they tried to do testing. While Germany was producing testing kits, the CDC announces it doesn't have any but won't import test kits offered to it by WHO. The US still can't test for the virus in any significant number. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212
  • Americans are now being told that they should self-isolate - this is where Italy was 4 weeks ago.

Now the US is in a place with no data, the administration is asking AG Barr to look at prosecuting papers that don't say what Trump wants, but most importantly, NO PLAN other than that it might bail out a few industries, such as the hotel industry.

The government should have said weeks ago what to do if you got the virus, including if you were on low income, needed food delivery, etc.  The government should have begun stockpiling additional equipment.  The CDC has stockpiled 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks.  With 3 million doctors and nurses those will be used in a couple of days.

The administration better get its act together rather than just pretending everything is ok.

image.png.151e3077fb1676af444821ab3faf9905.png

You are talking pure propaganda with no data to back you up. The. U.S.A. has only 1,300 cases while the same population in Western Europe has 30,000!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Edited by ronwagn
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1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

The U.S.A. has 1,700 cases while Western Europe has 30,000 cases. I would say we are doing very well. The rest is propaganda. 

That really wasn't the focus of that post, but the US numbers have been low because test kits have been limited and testing is manual rather than the normal 1000 batch testing machines, which now have a first kit approved from Roche. Those were approved in Europe over a week ago. So they have been able to do large scale testing. US testing will provide us scary numbers next week when enough labs are online. 

I don't think the travel bans from the US did much more than buy a delay in the onset of breakout to large scale community transfers. The problem was that China was denying and minimizing till the end of Jan. And few were willing to call them on it. So the covid 19 managed to come into the US and get established in communities even with the relatively quick China travel ban of 2 Feb. 

Some say that the Trump team was told that if they don't have an outbreak by the end of March then it won't be a problem at all, as the seasonal downturn will take care of it. So were trying to prevent a panic such as we already see happening. I don't know. But the testing fiasco had enough internal CDC problems to overcome so that whatever Trump's involvement was, did not matter. 

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On 3/11/2020 at 7:07 PM, Zhong Lu said:
On 3/11/2020 at 6:46 PM, notsonice said:

There are actual acts of sabotage within the lower ranks below the director level in every branch that touches the covid 19 issue. ?????? Keep wearing the tinfoil

In the old Soviet Union, anytime things went wrong it was "an act of sabotage."  The government over there was run by a bunch of conspiracy mongers who saw ANY problem as evidence of "saboteurs".  It was never their fault.  It was always the "saboteurs" fault.  Blah blah blah.  We all know how that government turned out.  

Maduro does the same, too, you know.  Economy is crashing? Sabotage.  "Enemies of the state are sabotaging our nation."  Etc etc.  Those people protesting in Syria in 2010? Foreign saboteurs. They're enemies of the nation. Bomb them. Etc. etc. 

The top levels of the civil service are politically active and commercially active in selling no bid contracts and prohibitions on competition to various companies and congresspeople. They are very political and uniformly Democrat and often throwing nits in the way of the Trump administration similar to the Justice department's witch hunts of the Trump campaign while hiding and halting investigations of such Democratic luminaries as Biden via his son's lucrative financial dealings with foreign governments and SOEs. 

I think the repeal of the Civil service act of 1963 and rebooting it after a period that shows us what the civil service looks like without it.  

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The problem with these discussions is the bang you have to make in a short space.  I look at globalism systematically not politically.  Politically it is a very expansive discussion.  Systematically the global and the local are narrow and scientific.  Global involves value chains, global networks, and global movement of capital and people.  The local is our immediate of survival with food and shelter.  Politically the manipulation of this global world is very nuanced and difficult to define but the systematic is essentially a scientific reality.  It is difficult to define because we are dealing with human positions on a scientific reality.  This of course includes the pseudo science of economics which is a mix of behavior and math/science.

You are using the term globalism loosely. Globalism IMO entails global government control. It seems like you are referring to free trade, or free and fair trade which is definitely not globalism IMO. The problem

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We see the pros and cons of a Covid responses and as usual there will need to be a combination of both.  This is speculating a little theoretically forward and Monday morning quarterbacking the past.  We need extreme measures in the beginning to get the population shocked into action otherwise the contagion is 10 times worse.  That said extreme measures are not sustainable.  One thing I have been thinking about is agriculture.  If farmers don’t get a crop organized in a timely fashion this year, we are going to have food issues soon.  Last year was a horrible year for farmers between the weather and trade problems.  In China pathogens are running wild in their food system.  In Africa Locust are getting bad.  There is also the ever worsening of climate change (human or not) to growing seasons.  Now we have a global hard recession coming to further stunt AG productivity.  So yes, we have to act hard with the virus to stabilize the infections but eventually a triage of sorts must be accepted to keep the economy from going into free fall.  China is probably a good example of triage.  China is making an effort to get back to business as usual with the understanding the virus is still there.  The problem with a pandemic like this is the cure is worse than the disease if you are not careful.  We will know in 2 months what worked best.  It is likely this will vary by region because of all the differences.  Italy is very vulnerable because of the amount of older people and the population densities.  Other nations will not suffer as bad with young populations.  Regions with less density will also have nature barriers to the virus.

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18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The Chinese are now saying that an American soldier brought Covid 19 to Wuhan!

What did you expect them to claim? Eventually something like this would be floated so that the Communist party can deflect blame so that the ‘peasants’ don’t get pissed off at them.

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What did you expect them to claim? Eventually something like this would be floated so that the Communist party can deflect blame so that the ‘peasants’ don’t get pissed off at them.

 

I have been following the conspiracies of a pathogen release from the Level 4 Bio Lab in Wuhan.  It is actually quite extensive and interesting.  I am also now reading some on the conspiracies the US is responsible either indirectly or deliberately.  I find them less compelling but I am hoping to find more legitimate sources for this.  Currently the sources are either nutter sites or extreme anti-American sites.  It is clear China's huge cover up early on allowed this pathogen to become a pandemic yet would any other nation done any better with the onset of something new like this?  I doubt it.  We are now past the event and it will be time for all kinds of blame.  Yet, the origins of the virus is important.  It will show responsibility that must be addressed.  The damage is too great to brush off as just a black swan.  The reality is if this was an accident it could of happened anywhere there are level 4 bio labs so this event shows humans that we as a global people should reflect on bio-engineering and other technology at the level we are doing it globally.  Crying over spilled milk is no longer the only option.  I personally feel this was an accident not intentional.  I also don't buy into the virus jumping from animal to humans without some coaxing in a lab.  This virus appears modified for human to human transmission.  I am not an expert but I do read this every day.

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Pretty sobering stuff if the west wants to get this outbreak under control according to Donald McNeil.  Forget about your rights and dignity.  You will be processed like cattle and make it or not according to what he believes works from the Chinese experience.

 

“How a country serious about coronavirus does testing and quarantine”

https://tinyurl.com/s9ltl7b     msnbc

 

“Donald McNeil, science and health reporter for the New York Times, talks with Rachel Maddow about how China handles a person who may have contracted the novel coronavirus, with an eye on breaking the chains of transmission and protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed, and with a process that stands in stark contrast with the U.S. for its competence.”

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OK, I was probably thinking about the U.S.A. Of course other countries are dealing with worse situations. We seem to be doing well so far by shutting down borders. China failed to be open and honest with the world. 

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31 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

OK, I was probably thinking about the U.S.A. Of course other countries are dealing with worse situations. We seem to be doing well so far by shutting down borders. China failed to be open and honest with the world. 

Shutting the border is important early, and only if you take other steps immediately.  The problem is now inside the US and because of the lack of testing, no one really knows how big the epidemic is or even where the hotspots are.  Estimates for the US approximate 10-20 times the cases compared to the official numbers.

Now we have to wait 2-4 weeks to find out what's going on, and the exponentials of a pandemic aren't intutive. Recently I came across a great description:

  • Q: If a lilypad doubles in size every day for 30 days until it covers the whole pond, on what day will it cover half the pond?
  • A: Obviously, on day 29 it covers half the pond (people who don't pay attention sometimes answer day 15).
  • Q: How much of the pond does the lilypad cover on day 15?
  • A: On day 15, the lilypad covers 0.003% of the pond.

Our minds don't work well with exponentials - we are linear beasts. On day 15 we might notice a speck, but over the next few days it becomes an uncontrollable beast. That's what happened in Italy and the worry is that we're following their example.

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1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Shutting the border is important early, and only if you take other steps immediately.  The problem is now inside the US and because of the lack of testing, no one really knows how big the epidemic is or even where the hotspots are.  Estimates for the US approximate 10-20 times the cases compared to the official numbers.

Now we have to wait 2-4 weeks to find out what's going on, and the exponentials of a pandemic aren't intutive. Recently I came across a great description:

  • Q: If a lilypad doubles in size every day for 30 days until it covers the whole pond, on what day will it cover half the pond?
  • A: Obviously, on day 29 it covers half the pond (people who don't pay attention sometimes answer day 15).
  • Q: How much of the pond does the lilypad cover on day 15?
  • A: On day 15, the lilypad covers 0.003% of the pond.

Our minds don't work well with exponentials - we are linear beasts. On day 15 we might notice a speck, but over the next few days it becomes an uncontrollable beast. That's what happened in Italy and the worry is that we're following their example.

That is a nice explanation of the exponential growth. It will be interesting to see how we do compared to Europe. I use the Richter Scale to explain how small earthquakes are up to 3 or 4.0 That is a logarithmic growth though. Anti frackers like to scare people by talking about high numbers of tiny quakes. 

If you double a penny and keep doubling the amount you have 100 times you have a lot of money. 

Right now, we are doing far better. I attribute that to shutting down our borders. I think we have an advantage by not being as densely populated as Europe. I would guess that the healthcare systems are comparable. 

Canada is still open to travelers from China and that may be their undoing. That is also very interesting to watch. Hopefully we will screen anyone coming from Canada due to that policy.

It will be interesting to see how all regions of the world do. I am afraid that Africa will eventually need a lot of outside help. Unstable political problems there make it the worst place to be, besides the poor health care.

I just heard a Physician guest on Fox News say that we have had 52,000 deaths already, in the United States, form the flu. Far beyond the Coronavirus AKA Clovid 19. He recommends building up your immune system with vitamins A,C, and D. He also recommends going about your normal life but that would not apply to elderly people or those with other risk factors such as heart or lung problems.

Edited by ronwagn
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(edited)

I just discovered that I can download raw data on COVID19 cases from Johns Hopkins University.  That actually makes things a little easier.

What I've done is I've aligned the start dates of breakouts in the US, UK and Italy to show how the epidemic is progressing. You can see how the US and Italy share a similar infection curve. You can see the UK curve deviates, probably because they stopped testing.

Now, there are two issues here:

  • COVID-19 testing has been somewhat erratic, so it's interesting the curves fit so well
  • The US has about 5 times the population of Italy
  • Italy's cases are concentrated in the North, meaning hospitals there are overwhelmed

image.png.e864ebedf927df1e06661de1a95d92ee.png

If the curve remains fitted, the US will have approximately 25,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 11 days' time (26-March). Bear in mind that there is nothing we can do about this growth as those people are already infected - they just have not shown symptoms yet.

image.png.db3a160b771e1e1c9c366b6f43e3ab7d.png

Italy currently is doubling its infections every 3.25 days. However it has also started quite strict isolation, so we should start seeing tapering off in a bit less than two weeks. In 10 day's time, they will have 200,000 confirmed infections. Again, there is nothing anyone can do about that - those people are already infected but are not ill yet.  If the deaths grow at the same rate as the cases, Italy would have 3,000 people dying per day at that point (they had 368 die today). 

The question in the US is, now that most infections in the US are being spread from American to American, what can be done soon to keep American infections from blowing up like Italy. The goal is to make sure there are enough beds with ventilators for people who require hospitalisation.

By these numbers, it looks like America is lagging Italy by about 3 weeks (11 days above plus one week because it has five times the population). There is still time to act, but that window is getting very small.

P.S. if anyone finds these interesting I can post updates from time to time. I'm rather interested in how well my numbers do. Also, if anyone wants any different countries I can try the same thing for them.

Edited by Geoff Guenther
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(edited)

I've found this chart in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica :

image.png.54d3f5b927c2539dbf8d695450ce840c.png

This was the situation 6 days ago.

 

And this one showing more recent data was added by surrept33 in another thread of this forum :

 

18 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Per capita covid cases per country:

c3173424-662a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?fit

 

Most countries are on the 33% daily increase line. Once a country starts to show a slower increase rate this could mean it's flattening the curve.

Edited by Guillaume Albasini

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A look at what lies ahead for our lives once the pandemic stabilizes (hopefully):

 

“THE TRANSFORMATION OF RISK”

https://tinyurl.com/v3dal5b     korowicz human systems

 

“We have entered an age where the risks societies face are becoming more extreme in their impacts, more probable in their likelihood, and potentially irreversible in their duration."

 

"The conditions that underpin the casual expectations of our normal lives  — that there is food in the supermarket, that businesses can operate, that electricity, water and healthcare are available, that we can communicate, money works, and government functions — depends upon the coherent operation of an increasing complex, interdependent, high-speed and integrated global system. Mostly we don’t notice it because it works so effectively."

 

"However, this complexity that underpins our welfare has become a source of growing vulnerability. Distant stresses and  shocks can be transmitted across the world through financial system and supply-chain contagion, through transport  and communications networks, supply/ demand drops, and human movements."

 

"Further, it means that if the ‘right’ part of a socio-economic system is sufficiently compromised (by a financial collapse, major pandemic, natural or environmental disaster, cyber/ hybrid- attack on critical infrastructure, state failure, or synchronous events), critical interdependent societal systems can fail collectively. In a time of always-on economies, of rapid financial flows and Just-In-Time logistics, the process may be rapid. Under certain conditions, this could be global and irreversible."

 

"At the same time we can expect growing stresses —including from food,oil and water constraints; from the impacts of climate change; credit over-expansion; demographics, declining global trust/ legitimacy-that can propagate through these global networks. It is the interactions of increasing societal vulnerability, and the rising scale and impact of stressors that is being referred to as The Transformation of Risk."

 

"This transformation is likely to be experienced as growing societal stress- social, political, economic, environmental and infrastructural; and an increase in the frequency and intensity of shocks. There will be more surprises, the future will look more and more uncertain, while society’s expectations and expert models (for the economy or greenhouse gas emissions, for example) diverge further from reality. Instability will become de-stabilising. In this context, the resilience and adaptive capacity of societies are likely to be further undermined. This increases the likelihood of large-scale systemic failure - from localised and reversible, to global and irreversible become more likely."

 

"This is the context in which Korowicz Human Systems operates. Firstly, it aims to develop and express a perspective on Globally Integrated Systemic Risk that is scientifically credible. Secondly, it aims to translate this into an actionable Risk Posture that can guide societal responses. Finally, it is endeavouring to support and encourage societal preparedness and contingency planning through work with governments, institutions, and civil society."

 

"We do not know what the future will bring, but as a society we are overwhelming invested in a future that assumes continued socio-economic integration. But the growing likelihood of societal stress and the potential for irreversible systemic failure, coupled with the potentially catastrophic impacts means there is a strong risk management argument for putting more effort into engaging with the consequences of severe down-side risks.”

 

Great background on the systematic side of pandemics in complex systems:

“Catastrophic Shocks Through Complex Socio-Economic Systems — A pandemic perspective”

https://tinyurl.com/vy3cvsk

 

realgreenadaptation.blog

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On 3/14/2020 at 7:26 AM, REAL Green said:

What did you expect them to claim? Eventually something like this would be floated so that the Communist party can deflect blame so that the ‘peasants’ don’t get pissed off at them.

 

I have been following the conspiracies of a pathogen release from the Level 4 Bio Lab in Wuhan.  It is actually quite extensive and interesting.  I am also now reading some on the conspiracies the US is responsible either indirectly or deliberately.  I find them less compelling but I am hoping to find more legitimate sources for this.  Currently the sources are either nutter sites or extreme anti-American sites.  It is clear China's huge cover up early on allowed this pathogen to become a pandemic yet would any other nation done any better with the onset of something new like this?  I doubt it.  We are now past the event and it will be time for all kinds of blame.  Yet, the origins of the virus is important.  It will show responsibility that must be addressed.  The damage is too great to brush off as just a black swan.  The reality is if this was an accident it could of happened anywhere there are level 4 bio labs so this event shows humans that we as a global people should reflect on bio-engineering and other technology at the level we are doing it globally.  Crying over spilled milk is no longer the only option.  I personally feel this was an accident not intentional.  I also don't buy into the virus jumping from animal to humans without some coaxing in a lab.  This virus appears modified for human to human transmission.  I am not an expert but I do read this every day.

Yet any conspiracy theorist could very easily claim that it was a test by the Chinese just to see how fast they can get something a LOT more dangerous than COVID19 could spread, all fits in with the whole hegemony thing as well. Well, to a point, if they kill of most of the world then who is left to run everything...

I would not be surprised to find out later that the whole thing was orchestrated by the DNC in league with China, and we all know what lengths the DNC has been willing to go to to destroy Trump and we also know how the Chinese would love for him to go away and let them get back to BAU, all in the name of destroying our economy and getting their candidate elected and party in power again. Wouldn't surprise me even one little bit to find out Killiary had her hands dirtied in this either. So here we are, watching the warning signs of impending doom by the hands of the Chinese hitting us so many times, and our government has ignored them for how many decades? A country willing to use unfair trade practices to undercut manufacturing around the world and they have been allowed to get away with it for so long that the words repercussion have no meaning to them. Inferior products sometimes made with toxic products. Thank you and hats off to Clinton, Bush and Obama for allowing them to get away with anything they wanted to for soooo long. And now it has come to this.

See what doing business with a corrupt government has done for the average citizen of the world? How many millions will die because of another communist government skirting safety rules and systems? And they could have been stopped decades ago, but everyone fell into the "cheap" trap. Cheap labor and cheap goods from a country that has used the rules as a mere suggestion instead of being the actual rules. Keep on buying from China y'all, I know we can't avoid it 100%, but we CAN look at where something is made and make an informed choice. Maybe made elsewhere, or do we really actually"need" this item? We do have the power to kill China off without an actual war... And we will NOT buy food made or processed in China knowingly.

Any more questions and you need to be looking at what the Soviet Union did to the environment, just start looking up nuclear accidents and you will be amazed at how many contaminated areas they have left behind. The "rules" and "safety systems" were deemed not necessary by that government(again, communist tend to do that) and our children thousands of years into the future will still be dealing with the mess they left behind...

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(edited)

On 3/13/2020 at 5:30 PM, ronwagn said:

The U.S.A. has 1,700 cases while Western Europe has 30,000 cases. I would say we are doing very well. The rest is propaganda. 

I wouldn't be patting yourself on the back just yet Ron

As of this morning

"the U.S. death toll rose  to 69, with more than 3,770 known cases as of Monday morning."

Thats another 2070 cases and 28 deaths over the weekend!

Edited by Rob Plant

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On 3/11/2020 at 4:09 PM, Zhong Lu said:

We're seeing classic bear market rallies.  The market reacts faster then the US government because there isn't some dude at the top with some ideological bias slowing everything down.  I'll believe the corona virus thing is over once the market settles down.  Until then.....

Also, I thought we weren't supposed to trust the government, especially when it's saying "all is fine"? 

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/16/experts-china-ties-led-italy-south-korea-and-iran-to-slow-coronavirus-responses/

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6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I wouldn't be patting yourself on the back just yet Ron

As of this morning

"the U.S. death toll rose  to 69, with more than 3,770 known cases as of Monday morning."

Thats another 2070 cases and 28 deaths over the weekend!

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/16/experts-china-ties-led-italy-south-korea-and-iran-to-slow-coronavirus-responses/

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1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

 

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I wouldn't be patting yourself on the back just yet Ron

As of this morning

"the U.S. death toll rose  to 69, with more than 3,770 known cases as of Monday morning."

Thats another 2070 cases and 28 deaths over the weekend!

0.01830238726 American deaths per case by percentage of cases you quoted. 

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(edited)

 

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/remember_the_h1n1_pandemic_i_dont_either.html Overreaction to Coronavirus?

Believe me, I am taking all precautions and isolation within reason. My major concern is for all the people getting out of the stock market. The super rich will buy it all back up when they wake up. The average person will have screwed himself royally. That is just my guess. 

Edited by ronwagn
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On 3/14/2020 at 5:16 PM, REAL Green said:

Pretty sobering stuff if the west wants to get this outbreak under control according to Donald McNeil.  Forget about your rights and dignity.  You will be processed like cattle and make it or not according to what he believes works from the Chinese experience.

 

“How a country serious about coronavirus does testing and quarantine”

https://tinyurl.com/s9ltl7b     msnbc

 

“Donald McNeil, science and health reporter for the New York Times, talks with Rachel Maddow about how China handles a person who may have contracted the novel coronavirus, with an eye on breaking the chains of transmission and protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed, and with a process that stands in stark contrast with the U.S. for its competence.”

Yet we, so far, appear to have one of the lowest rates of infections and deaths worldwide. 

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On 3/10/2020 at 1:37 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

Given that Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have managed to hold back the tide using available tools, it seem irresponsible to me that much of Europe and the US are so lothe to follow their example.

What is happening in Iran is real, and it's happening because the government tried to sweep it under the carpet. We'll have the same issue here shortly if we continue on our merry way.

There's nothing irresponsible about creating educated estimates based on known data. That is all you can do when hard data is unavailable.

It's also frustrating to point out that, particularly in the US, the administration is silencing the CDC and the Department of National Intelligence while Trump is telling people that they can go to work while they are ill.  https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

US have so-called best health system only in Tramp’s bravada full of adjectives but lack of any facts and in Hollywood movies. USA will be hit more than any country due to mostly ignorant population without access to health system. We gonna watch real time show of f up of Trump and epic fail of his team and him as president. Just wait for two weeks. The show is coming soon. Wash your hands and get ready pop-corn.

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