How High Will Oil Go If Shale Boomers Stop Ramping Up?

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Just a random thought in light of record-high production in the U.S. and record-high net longs on oil. If traders start selling, WTI could fall below $50, or so says Bloomberg. But what if they suddenly decide to rein in production?

[Rodent + 1,424]

10 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Just a random thought in light of record-high production in the U.S. and record-high net longs on oil. If traders start selling, WTI could fall below $50, or so says Bloomberg. But what if they suddenly decide to rein in production?

I'm not seeing it. But Barkindo and US oil executives are meeting on Monday for dinner. Still, it would be nearly impossible for oil executives to band together and curb production, and doing so would be illegal and constitute price fixing. The only thing that will curb US oil production is lower prices.

[Missy + 43]

I think US production this week was down, from 10.271 bpd to 10.270 bpd. If oil drops to $50, that is exactly what would rein in US oil production.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

But what about efficiency? We've been hearing so much about efficiency in shale oil. 

 

10 hours ago, Rodent said:

I'm not seeing it. But Barkindo and US oil executives are meeting on Monday for dinner. Still, it would be nearly impossible for oil executives to band together and curb production, and doing so would be illegal and constitute price fixing. The only thing that will curb US oil production is lower prices.

Can't they do it on the quiet? Shareholders want returns, we want profits, etc. I doubt they would willingly play along with OPEC, sure, but it would be in their best interest, too.