Guillaume Albasini

Covid-19 exponential growth

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34 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I dunno. Ward?

Buy within 10% of the bottom, sell within 20% of the top. 

Slow reacting lemmings are still in panic mode. They're figuring what goes down will never go up. Until it does of course. Go back to basics, PE ratios, held debt and if their industry has "legs".

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3 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I think so. It was a French doctor who suggested the treatment and they seem to be testing. I know about Japan's testing on Chinese patients with an antiviral that also seems to have merit.

WHO seems to be running four international trials as well, which include antivirals and other treatments.  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments.

I think they're basically pulling out all the stops to find anything right now.

WHO was very slow on declaring a pandemic and was influenced by China via the reports I have read. 

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1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

WHO was very slow on declaring a pandemic and was influenced by China via the reports I have read. 

Yeah, they weren't allowed in Wuhan back in January so tweeted a message that came directly from CCP. I can't comment on the epidemic vs pandemic piece because I don't understand the definitions. 

In the meantime, they've got a lot of good people and may prove to be a lifeline for Africa and Latin America, but only if decent medicines, like the ones you're talking about, prove useful. 

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2 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Yeah, they weren't allowed in Wuhan back in January so tweeted a message that came directly from CCP. I can't comment on the epidemic vs pandemic piece because I don't understand the definitions. 

In the meantime, they've got a lot of good people and may prove to be a lifeline for Africa and Latin America, but only if decent medicines, like the ones you're talking about, prove useful. 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/florida-man-with-coronavirus-says-drug-touted-by-trump-saved-his-life/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site buttons&utm_campaign=site buttons

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1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Buy within 10% of the bottom, sell within 20% of the top. 

Earlier you got on the doctor for not giving attribution to Bloomberg. Now you've stolen a line from Will Rogers without giving him credit. 

But thanks for the tip. 

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1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Buy within 10% of the bottom, sell within 20% of the top. 

Slow reacting lemmings are still in panic mode. They're figuring what goes down will never go up. Until it does of course. Go back to basics, PE ratios, held debt and if their industry has "legs".

The big question is where is the bottom?

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57 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Earlier you got on the doctor for not giving attribution to Bloomberg. Now you've stolen a line from Will Rogers without giving him credit. 

But thanks for the tip. 

I'm too young to know Will Rogers quotes. How about Fred Rogers? It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood? 

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8 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Excellent. So all you can do is call names rather than rebut with facts. For your info, I'm not British, and I lived in the US much longer than I've lived in the UK. I know how the US works quite well, thank you. 

The markets tasked because the President told them that everything that he had said to date was wrong and that he didn't have a coherent plan going forward. Extending the failed partial plan from 6 weeks before from China to Europe without proposing anything new has a way of tanking markets.

 

So the Chinese did all the inexpensive things first? Like building hospitals in 14 days (in the West you would have simply requisitioned an existing structure such as a hotel or sports arena with existing power, water and sewage infrastructure) or quarantining roughly 700 million people? Those ‘cheap’ solutions?

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8 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I don't know if you live in the US, but when the president declares an emergency he gains authority over all sorts of things, and national security threats like a pandemic are one. The CDC, as a part of the Trump administration, should have been in there immediately.

Everything you've described are Trump's excuses to not act. Trump should not have had to become personally involved in getting more masks - the fact that he gelded the administration is why it couldn't be done earlier.

This week the US will pass China in total number of COVID-19 cases. We had over two more months to deal with this outbreak than China did and we completely flubbed it.

Johnson's use of "herd immunity" is arguably worse, but we can get into that later.

Trump "gelded the administration"? @0r0 has already pointed out that the Demoncrats have blocked 75% of Trump's appointments. Notice all the people who have titles that start with "Acting" director, secretary or assistant whatever. They're "acting" because the a-holes in the Senate refuse to allow an up or down vote. Due to the stupidity of the way the Senate functions, any senator can place a hold on an appointment. The 47 Demoncrats in the Senate are just taking turns damaging this administration by doing exactly that. It's obscene, dishonest and frankly treasonous. Good quality people have simply given up and dropped out of consideration. When "acting" leaders get fed up with their temp status and resign, the lying Demoncrats and DNC MSM pretend Trump fired them, when nothing could be further from the truth. 

Yet you claim Trump should wave his magic wand and make all this bullsht go away? Claim it's just an "excuse"? This is why I said you suffer from TDS. If you want to say that's an insult, so be it. It's obvious to all and sundry by your every post. Sorry that mirror is defective. 

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6 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

The Trump adminstration has done a measurably poorer job than Japan and South Korea. I'm arguing that it still isn't doing its job and that's going to cripple the economy AND kill people - the worst of all possibilities.

Germany seems to have done a good job *so far*. They probably have the hospital beds and ventilators needed to cope with a surge. The Germans are saying that we shouldn't read too much into it - my understanding is that they are providing standard care to people and they think the CFR will rise.

The Financial Times has a page that they keep updated that shows the trajectories of cases and deaths by country.  The most striking is that US cases are growing faster than any other country at this point (18 days) in their epidemics. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

China put Wuhan into lockdown for 51 days to gain control of the virus. A lockdown would likely have to last for about 4-5 weeks (incubation time * 2) to gain control here, and we'd have to set up strong processes after that - i.e. temperature scans before you enter buildings, 45-minute test results, public disinfection stations, proper quarantine rather than throwing the problems to families, and tracking down of individuals who may have been infected.

These things would cause less interruption in our day-to-day life than what we're about to experience. All it takes is a leader who is willing to take a risk and implement it.

As you pointed out repeatedly, the US was not testing and testing capacity has only come online last week. Thus numbers don't reflect the discovery of new cases, but the expansion of testing. 

The positive vs. negative results on tests are shifting down and the testing has expanded to the full 20k near total daily capacity. So I guess we are not expanding testing yet. We do need to do a broad regional sampling with antibody tests to check on how far we have gone with the virus' penetration of the community. 

Contrary to you, I think the Trump Admin, is finding a useful median between getting the medical system overrun and shutting down the economy. There is absolutely no point to trying to stop the virus entirely. It has far too widely spread long before the ban on flights from China had been put in place. I think the lockdowns instituted already should be lifted. Curfews banned. Cuomo DiBlazio, etc .should be thrown in jail for endangering people and restricting their mobility for nothing. China has not controlled its viral outbreak, Just lowered its speed to a manageable level where they can treat people without having to tell them what they have and get reasonable outcomes. In the US, outside of the dense central metro areas there is no point to the shelter in place orders, the rate of transmission is just  not high enough to create a large overwhelming wave of acute cases in low density environments. 

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16 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Cuomo DiBlazio, etc .should be thrown in jail for endangering people and restricting their mobility for nothing. China has not controlled its viral outbreak, Just lowered its speed to a manageable level where they can treat people without having to tell them what they have and get reasonable outcomes. In the US, outside of the dense central metro areas there is no point to the shelter in place orders, the rate of transmission is just  not high enough to create a large overwhelming wave of acute cases in low density environments. 

Oro, you just contradicted yourself: on the one hand you want Cuomo and DiBlazio to be thrown in jail for  . . .  restricting people's mobility for nothing. Then you say that outside of the "dense central metro areas, there is no point to the shelter in place orders." Last I checked, NYC is about as dense a metro area as we have here in the US. 

Look, this thing can live within a human body for at least six days before producing symptoms: Ron Paul, no dummy and a physician, showed us that all too clearly. No one in medicine has ever seen this sort of thing before. You get around someone who is infected but asymptomatic and they touch something, then you touch it--if you don't go wash your hands before touching your face, you're infected, no maybe about it. 

The mean fact is, unless warmer weather slows this thing down, we're going to first lose about half our health care workers, then there is inadequate care to even triage, much less treat. At that point, panic sets in. Primitive behavior. Under ordinary circumstances I'd glibly tell you that warm weather will slow this virus. But no one really knows--it's being transmitted like crazy in some tropical areas. So until somebody does something really stupid, it's probably counterproductive to be suggesting anybody go to jail--no matter how their politics may clash with our own.

Soon, unless something occurs to slow down the Duncan Doubling System, we are going to have far greater things to worry about than to Monday morning quarterback things like preparedness, testing, etc. Soon, if this curve continues and Congress keeps up the pork, we're going to start seeing our leaders go down. At that point, it could be anarchy, right here in the homeland.  

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32 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Oro, you just contradicted yourself: on the one hand you want Cuomo and DiBlazio to be thrown in jail for  . . .  restricting people's mobility for nothing. Then you say that outside of the "dense central metro areas, there is no point to the shelter in place orders." Last I checked, NYC is about as dense a metro area as we have here in the US. 

Look, this thing can live within a human body for at least six days before producing symptoms: Ron Paul, no dummy and a physician, showed us that all too clearly. No one in medicine has ever seen this sort of thing before. You get around someone who is infected but asymptomatic and they touch something, then you touch it--if you don't go wash your hands before touching your face, you're infected, no maybe about it. 

The mean fact is, unless warmer weather slows this thing down, we're going to first lose about half our health care workers, then there is inadequate care to even triage, much less treat. At that point, panic sets in. Primitive behavior. Under ordinary circumstances I'd glibly tell you that warm weather will slow this virus. But no one really knows--it's being transmitted like crazy in some tropical areas. So until somebody does something really stupid, it's probably counterproductive to be suggesting anybody go to jail--no matter how their politics may clash with our own.

Soon, unless something occurs to slow down the Duncan Doubling System, we are going to have far greater things to worry about than to Monday morning quarterback things like preparedness, testing, etc. Soon, if this curve continues and Congress keeps up the pork, we're going to start seeing our leaders go down. At that point, it could be anarchy, right here in the homeland.  

There is a nice chart with a regression of R0 and temperature and humidity and it falls with rising temperature and humidity. Someone posted a reference to an article containing the analysis and chart. Doesn't get you under 1 at this point in time. 

The virus is killed by simple soap. I carry around a soap dispenser  an alcohol sanitizing lotion and colloidal silver. I go in to public places with a paper towel wetted with any of these and don't put it away till I am back in my car. Wipe any surfaces I touch and my hands. Prefer the soap since your finger tips cause a burn or bitter sensation when you touch your eyes or mouth. 

I am saying that for the overwhelmed dense central metros it is too late. The wave of hospitalizations are of people who acquired the virus up to two weeks ago. Statewide orders are brain dead because it is suburban and rural so transmission is low unless you are attending mass gatherings and schools.  Low density work places like offices and manufacturing only require an effort at sanitation in the bathrooms and door knobs (or automatic doors). Cashiers need to sanitize their hands after handling cash or cards, or use gloves. 

Most workplaces are easy to sanitize, though Amazon delivery truck drivers were given a single sanitizing wipe per van - per day. Amazon are obviously well past their time to robotize completely. Their workers are tired of being thought of as automotons. Old folks are heeding the warning and show up at the supermarket with gloves and a face mask. 

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1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

...we're going to first lose about half our health care workers...

Why do you say that? Do you believe that the viral load will make their CFR 50%, up from the 4% being discussed as a worst case?

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21,000 people die every month in China from road traffic accidents.  Road use in China was down 80% in February.  So the virus has meant there are probably more people alive today than would have been without the virus.  In Hong Kong flu cases have also dropped this year significantly.  Always look on the bright side of life........Any Monty Python fans here?

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1 hour ago, Michael Jones said:

Always look on the bright side of life........Any Monty Python fans here?

Yes, quite a few.  Do you want to have the full argument, or were you thinking of taking a course?

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1 hour ago, Michael Jones said:

.Any Monty Python fans here?

 

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I think I'll go for a walk...

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Too soon?

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2 hours ago, Michael Jones said:

Any Monty Python fans here?

Sorry there are none. See Toms post for evidence

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12 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

You keep bringing up very tenuous excuses for why the Trump adminstration did nothing. The fact is that they had months to do something and the powers to do it and they still did nothing except create the false impression that they had things under control.

Since you seem unwilling to listen to any reason, and continue to in your attempts to inflame panic, I am guessing you will ignore this list below. 

From my observation, you complain, but you offer no solutions.  Offering only panic and fear and hate.  Sad.

List: 74 actions taken by Trump to fight virus and bolster economy

In less than a week, the Trump administration has greatly expanded the actions it's taken to fight the coronavirus and boost the economy, according to its latest tally of “response efforts.”

Last week, when Secrets first ran the list, it totaled 43. By Monday, it was at 74, with many more planned this week as the White House effort shifts to focus more on the economy and treatment of those infected.

While he continues to receive fire from some governors who want more, President Trump said he hopes for a win in the battle soon.

“For those worried and afraid, please know: As long as I am your president, you can feel confident that you have a leader who will always fight for you, and I will not stop until we win. This will be a great victory,” he said Sunday, adding, “This is going to be a victory. And it's going to be a victory that, in my opinion, will happen much sooner than originally expected.”

Over the weekend, for example, he listed the supplies being sent to the hardest-hit states, put in place special rules at Veterans Administration hospitals, and dispatched two military hospital ships. He also told FEMA to get mobile hospitals to New York and California.

Some governors, such as those in New York and Illinois, want Trump to take over the purchasing of key goods that states are in bidding wars for. But, in his press conference on Monday, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam said he hasn’t seen that bidding battle.

Below is the latest White House list shared with Secrets of moves to fight the virus.

WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

  • President Trump declared a national emergency, inviting States, territories, and tribes to access over $42 billion in existing funding.
  • Trump signed legislation securing $8.3 billion for coronavirus response.
  • Trump signed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, ensuring that American families and businesses impacted by the virus receive the strong support they need.
  • To leverage the resources of the entire government, the president created a White House Coronavirus Task Force to coordinate response.
  • Vice President Pence named Dr. Deborah Birx to serve as the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator.
  • The president has held multiple teleconferences with our nation’s governors to coordinate response efforts and offer his full support.
  • The president has approved major disaster declarations for impacted states like New York, Washington, and California.

TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

  • In January, Trump reacted quickly to implement travel restrictions on travel from China, buying us valuable time to respond to the virus.
  • The president has announced further travel restrictions on global hotspots, including Europe, the United Kingdom and Ireland, and Iran.
  • American citizens returning from travel-restricted countries are being routed to specific airports, where they can be screened and isolated as needed.
  • The United States reached mutual agreements with Mexico and Canada to restrict non-essential travel across our northern and southern borders.
  • The administration announced it will expeditiously return aliens who cross between ports of entry or are otherwise not allowed to enter the country, as the facilities in which these aliens would be held cannot support quarantine for the time needed to assess potential cases.
  • The administration raised travel warnings to their highest level for other hot spot locations, like Japan and South Korea.
  • The president has expanded airport screenings to identify travelers showing symptoms and instituted mandatory quarantines.
  • The State Department issued a global level 4 travel advisory, urging Americans to avoid all international travel due to the coronavirus outbreak worldwide.

EXPANDING TESTING ACCESSIBILITY

  • The FDA issued emergency approval for new commercial coronavirus tests to significantly expand testing across the country.
  • The president secured legislation that will ensure Americans are able to be tested for free.
  • The administration is working with state and local partners and the private sector to open up drive-through testing sites.
  • The administration is working with the private sector to develop a website that Americans can utilize to determine whether they need a test and, if so, where to get it.
  • HHS is providing funding to help accelerate the development of rapid diagnostic tests for the coronavirus.
  • The FDA cut red tape to expand testing availability.
  • Admiral Brett Giroir – the Assistant Secretary for Health and head of the Public Health Service – has been appointed to coordinate coronavirus testing efforts.
  • The FDA is empowering states to authorize tests developed and used by laboratories in their states.
  • The Department of Defense has set up 15 coronavirus testing sites worldwide.
  • The president signed legislation requiring more reporting from state and private labs to ensure our public health officials have the data they need to respond to this outbreak.
  • DoD and HHS worked to airlift hundreds of thousands of swabs and sample test kits from Italy to the United States.

SUPPORTING IMPACTED BUSINESSES

  • The Small Business Administration has announced disaster loans which provide impacted businesses with up to $2 million.
  • SBA relaxed criteria for disaster assistance loans – expanding small businesses’ access to economic assistance.
  • The president directed the Energy Department to purchase large quantities of crude oil for the strategic reserve.
  • Trump has held calls and meetings with business leaders from the pharmaceutical industry, airlines, health insurers, grocery stores, retail stores, banks, and more.
  • The Treasury Department approved the establishment of the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility to provide liquidity to the financial system.

HELPING FAMILIES AND WORKING AMERICANS

  • The administration negotiated legislation which will provide tax credits for eligible businesses that give paid leave to Americans affected by the virus.
  • The administration took action to provide more flexibility in unemployment insurance programs for workers impacted by the coronavirus.
  • The Treasury Department moved tax day from April 15 to July 15.
  • Trump signed legislation providing funding and flexibility for emergency nutritional aid for senior citizens, women, children, and low-income families.
  • USDA announced new flexibilities to allow meal service during school closures.
  • USDA announced a new collaboration with the private sector to deliver nearly 1,000,000 meals a week to students in rural schools closed due to the coronavirus.
  • The administration is halting foreclosures and evictions for families with FHA-insured mortgages.
  • The Department of Labor announced up to $100 million in dislocated worker grants in response to the coronavirus national health emergency.
  • The White House worked with the private sector to launch a central website where families, students, and educators can access online education technologies.
  • Trump signed legislation to provide continuity in educational benefits for veterans and their families who attend schools that have had to switch from in-person to online learning due to the coronavirus.
  • The Department of Education has given broad approval to colleges and universities to allow them to more easily move their classes online.
  • The Department of Education set interest rates on all federally-held student loans to 0% for at least 60 days.
  • The Department of Education announced borrowers will have the option to suspend their payments on federally-held student loans for at least two months.
  • The Department of Education is providing waivers for federal testing requirements to states that have had to close schools.

INFORMING THE PUBLIC

  • The administration launched a website – coronavirus.gov – to keep the public informed about the outbreak.
  • The president launched a partnership with the Ad Council, media networks, and digital platforms to communicate public services announcements about the coronavirus.
  • The president announced guidelines for Americans to follow and do their part to stem the spread of the virus.
  • The Task Force is holding nearly daily press conferences to provide the American people with the latest information.
  • The Task Force has recommended mitigation strategies to heavily impacted communities, like those in New York, Washington, and California.
  • CMS announced guidance to protect vulnerable elderly Americans and limit medically unnecessary visits to nursing homes.

SUPPORTING PATIENTS AND HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS

  • In January, the administration declared the coronavirus to be a public health emergency.
  • The president donated his fourth-quarter 2019 salary to the Department of Health and Human Services for coronavirus response efforts.
  • The president took action to give HHS authority to waive rules and regulations so that healthcare providers have maximum flexibility to respond to this outbreak.
  • CMS is giving flexibility to Medicare Advantage and Part D plans to waive cost-sharing for coronavirus tests and treatment.
  • CMS created new billing codes for coronavirus tests to promote better tracking of the public health response.
  • The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy coordinated with the NIH, the tech industry, and nonprofits to release a machine readable collection of 29,000 coronavirus-related research articles, which will help scientists discover insights to virus’ genetics, incubation, treatment, symptoms, and prevention.
  • The administration announced that health plans with health savings accounts will be able to cover coronavirus testing and treatment without co-payments.
  • CMS dramatically expanded telehealth for Medicare beneficiaries, ensuring more patients can access their doctors remotely while avoiding exposure.
  • HHS lifted HIPAA penalties to enable healthcare providers to expand telehealth access for patients.
  • The VA established 19 emergency operations centers across the country and put in place visitation restrictions to limit patients’ exposure.
  • CMS and the VA are working to limit nonessential, elective medical procedures to free up healthcare resources.
  • The Navy will be deploying two medical ships to help support impacted areas.
  • The president announced Carnival Cruise Lines will be making ships available for hospitals to use for non-coronavirus patients.

STRENGTHENING ESSENTIAL MEDICAL SUPPLIES

  • The president announced he is invoking the Defense Production Act.
  • The president signed a memorandum directing his Administration to make general-use face masks available to healthcare workers.
  • HHS announced it will be purchasing 500 million N95 respirators for the Strategic National Stockpile.
  • The Department of Defense announced it will be providing 5 million respirator masks and 2,000 specialized ventilators to assist.
  • The president signed legislation removing restrictions that prevented manufacturers from selling industrial masks – which can readily protect healthcare workers – directly to hospitals.

DEVELOPING VACCINES AND THERAPEUTICS

  • The administration is working to help accelerate the development of therapeutics and a vaccine to combat the coronavirus.
  • The FDA is evaluating existing drugs that could serve as potential therapeutics for coronavirus patients.
  • The administration is actively working with drug manufacturers to monitor any potential drug supply chain issues.
  • The administration is expanding research and consulting with experts to better understand the transmission of coronavirus.
  • The National Institutes of Health has announced the beginning of a clinical trial for a coronavirus vaccine candidate.
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12 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

You keep bringing up very tenuous excuses for why the Trump adminstration did nothing. The fact is that they had months to do something and the powers to do it and they still did nothing except create the false impression that they had things under control.

win.png.ecb5b83d9d8008c37752063bec9500a3.png

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43 minutes ago, Qanoil said:

A whole bunch of crap from the moonies that he hasn't read

While you continue defending your Lord and Saviour Donald Trump with lists of things that he did or didn't do, note:

  • The ONLY thing on the above list that he did in the right time frame is stop travel from China.

The coronavirus.com web site went up less than two weeks ago. The Defence Production act went live last week after ENORMOUS pressure from everyone else.

Jeez, there's a whole section regaling him for his prowess around testing, and its hard to find anyone that thinks he did even an adequate job with testing.

Stop copy any pasting propaganda and just think for yourself.

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1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

While you continue defending your Lord and Saviour Donald Trump with lists of things that he did or didn't do, note:

  • The ONLY thing on the above list that he did in the right time frame is stop travel from China.

The coronavirus.com web site went up less than two weeks ago. The Defence Production act went live last week after ENORMOUS pressure from everyone else.

Jeez, there's a whole section regaling him for his prowess around testing, and its hard to find anyone that thinks he did even an adequate job with testing.

Stop copy any pasting propaganda and just think for yourself.

Okay, what would YOU have done different than Trump, with the information AVAILABLE AT THE TIME THAT THE DECISION WAS MADE!

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