BMI crude oil price forecast via Rigzone

The price of Brent crude oil will average $75 per barrel next year, according to the latest forecast from oil and gas analysts at BMI Research.

BMI’s forecast is significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus, which forecasts that Brent will average $63.5 per barrel in 2019.

Analysts at BMI project that Brent will climb even higher in 2020, averaging $78 per barrel, before plateauing at $80 per barrel over the course of 2021 and 2022. The Bloomberg consensus forecasts that Brent will average $65 per barrel in 2020 and $67.5 per barrel in 2021.

In 2018, BMI projects that Brent will average $67 per barrel, which is $2 higher than the organization’s previous 2018 forecast of $65 per barrel. The Bloomberg consensus forecasts an average Brent price of $63.8 per barrel this year.

“We have upwardly revised our 2018 Brent price forecast due to accelerated market rebalancing and strong sentiment-driven support,” BMI analysts said in a brief report sent to Rigzone.

Over the next three months, the analysts expect crude prices to stabilize due to strong compliance from OPEC/non-OPEC producers on output cuts and less robust growth in US output.

“We believe bullish expectations regarding US production growth are overblown due to a lack of readily available high-grade rigs and pressure pumping capacity,” the analysts said.

Heading into the second quarter of 2018, the analysts expect prices to receive additional support from an uptick in seasonal demand.

“Supportive rhetoric around the supply cuts made by participating OPEC/non-OPEC producers will also buoy prices leading up to their June 22 meeting. Our forecast assumes that the production cut deal will hold in its current form until December, with a high level of compliance maintained by OPEC and Russia,” the analysts said.

At the time of writing, Brent was sitting at just over $65 per barrel. The value of the commodity plummeted from highs of over $100 per barrel in 2014 to lows of around $28 per barrel in 2016.

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I'm not sure I'm buying such a huge assumed Brent/WTI spread that they're suggesting here...

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Everyone likes to throw figures around, picking and choosing the factors influencing prices that they like. I understand it's the analysts' job but it's kind of amusing. Goldman's a favorite here.

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4 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Everyone likes to throw figures around, picking and choosing the factors influencing prices that they like. I understand it's the analysts' job but it's kind of amusing. Goldman's a favorite here.

Ah, yes. Good old Goldie. Always good for a chuckle.

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