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On 3/26/2020 at 6:16 PM, ronwagn said:

We will have to wait and see how America does at the end of the game. Right now we have far fewer cases (About a third) confirmed than all of Western Europe and Southern Europe combined. That population is roughly equal to ours. 

Not any more. We're number 1, we're number 1. And still woefully behind on testing, but catching up.

I dislike personal, but two personal stories. Friend of mine, nurse in Minnesota. In the hospital they are in the staff in her ward aren't allowed to wear masks. They are far short, and are saving them until more arrive, or after their first know cases and then they'll presumably use until they run out. Second, a relative by marriage. Rural Lousiana, checks all the boxes of what Hillary foolishly terms a deplorable, their child is currently losing his battle. Mardi Gras was, as we are learning now, a super spreader event. 

The USA is supposed to have a strategic reserve of masks. And did have one, but used it up in I think 2009. A failure of the Obama administration to not restock. 

Once it got out of China, closing borders to China was OK, but should have been everyone from China, not just Chinese Nationals. Once it was out, closing borders need to be across the board. Locking the front door when you leave the back door and windows wide open doesn't get the job done. Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, they reacted hard and quickly. We could have in theory reacted as quickly. Maybe it won't matter, but we are still in the data collection phase. We essentially have bet this won't be a kill millions of people deal. Probably won't. I am glad I am not an Indian (Asia subcontinent). Oddly enough, in this case KSA is more advanced.

Absolutely I want business resuming as soon as possible. Heck, in Texas as no state wide restrictions. I am working, and not just remotely. 

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21 minutes ago, John Foote said:

Not any more. We're number 1, we're number 1. And still woefully behind on testing, but catching up.

I dislike personal, but two personal stories. Friend of mine, nurse in Minnesota. In the hospital they are in the staff in her ward aren't allowed to wear masks. They are far short, and are saving them until more arrive, or after their first know cases and then they'll presumably use until they run out. Second, a relative by marriage. Rural Lousiana, checks all the boxes of what Hillary foolishly terms a deplorable, their child is currently losing his battle. Mardi Gras was, as we are learning now, a super spreader event. 

The USA is supposed to have a strategic reserve of masks. And did have one, but used it up in I think 2009. A failure of the Obama administration to not restock. 

Once it got out of China, closing borders to China was OK, but should have been everyone from China, not just Chinese Nationals. Once it was out, closing borders need to be across the board. Locking the front door when you leave the back door and windows wide open doesn't get the job done. Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, they reacted hard and quickly. We could have in theory reacted as quickly. Maybe it won't matter, but we are still in the data collection phase. We essentially have bet this won't be a kill millions of people deal. Probably won't. I am glad I am not an Indian (Asia subcontinent). Oddly enough, in this case KSA is more advanced.

Absolutely I want business resuming as soon as possible. Heck, in Texas as no state wide restrictions. I am working, and not just remotely. 

Did you understand what I said? We have one third the number of cases that Western and Southern Europe have. That is an equivalent population to ours. We might catch up with them, but that would be awhile. 

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(edited)

It's irresponsible to suggest reopening the economy so soon.  The USA haven't even begun to fight this virus yet.  They haven't taken this pandemic seriously enough.  You need to understand that this is a long term battle and you need to be strict about controlling it

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3076339/coronavirus-could-linger-europe-two-years-chinese-expert-says

Those people who advocate re-opening the economy needs to have sense beaten into them.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-india-this-is-how-local-police-punish-anyone-who-violates-nations-21-day-lockdown

Be sensible! Be patriotic! I will paraphrase what prime minister Modi said, by replacing India with the US: “According to health experts, a minimum of 21 days is most crucial to break the cycle of infection. If the US is not able to manage this pandemic in the next 21 days, the country and your family will be setback by 21 years. If the US is not able to manage the next 21 days, then many families will be destroyed forever,” Modi said.

 

Edited by Hotone
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(edited)

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of of the disease.

Per the Times, the model was one of four presented by CDC disease modeler Matthew Biggerstaff which reflected different assumptions about the nature of the coronavirus and the possible U.S. response. The projections also suggested that a U.S. epidemic could lead to the hospitalization of anywhere from 2.4 million to 21 million people. Depending on the timing, that burden could devastate the U.S. health-care system, as U.S. hospitals only have a capacity of roughly 925,000 beds (and fewer than 100,000 beds for critically ill patients). The Times reported that experts said the U.S. epidemic could last “months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities.” However:

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public …

 

The four scenarios have different parameters, which is why the projections range so widely. They variously assume that each person with the coronavirus would infect either two or three people; that the hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12; and that either 1 percent or a quarter of a percent of people experiencing symptoms would die. Those assumptions are based on what is known so far about how the virus has behaved in other contexts, including in China.

---------

So, if Trump's vision of "back to work ASAP, I want to see full churches on Easter" comes true, it will be a veritable zombie apocalypse. 

Edited by Yoshiro Kamamura
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3 hours ago, infotrad said:

Ronwgn:

While you package your arguments with false quotes (e.g. "SARS will kill us all") to keep a positive spin on things, you are nevertheless basing yourself on false premises. Maybe because you are a fan of Drumpf!?

Whether Drumps happens to be right or wrong is a moot point, given that he does not take reality into account. So it's like saying that his broken clock is correct twice a day.

And anyone who can’t use someones real name.....sounds like an adolescent.

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22 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Unless of course its when the supermarket opens and then its back to hundreds of people queuing up irresponsibly like cattle waiting for a prod! The morons in this country beggar belief, its like all of a sudden hundreds spill out of the asylum (their local housing estate) and they are like charging wildebeast on the Serengeti to get to the shops before the last toilet roll gets sold.

Babylon Bee:

Toilet Paper Crisis Solved As Government Prints Trillions Of Fresh, Soft Dollar Bills

 

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13 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

CDC’s Worst-Case Coronavirus Model: 214 Million Infected, 1.7 Million Dead

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of of the disease.

Per the Times, the model was one of four presented by CDC disease modeler Matthew Biggerstaff which reflected different assumptions about the nature of the coronavirus and the possible U.S. response. The projections also suggested that a U.S. epidemic could lead to the hospitalization of anywhere from 2.4 million to 21 million people. Depending on the timing, that burden could devastate the U.S. health-care system, as U.S. hospitals only have a capacity of roughly 925,000 beds (and fewer than 100,000 beds for critically ill patients). The Times reported that experts said the U.S. epidemic could last “months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities.” However:

The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public …

 

The four scenarios have different parameters, which is why the projections range so widely. They variously assume that each person with the coronavirus would infect either two or three people; that the hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12; and that either 1 percent or a quarter of a percent of people experiencing symptoms would die. Those assumptions are based on what is known so far about how the virus has behaved in other contexts, including in China.

---------

So, if Trump's vision of "back to work ASAP, I want to see full churches on Easter" comes true, it will be a veritable zombie apocalypse. 

The virus mortality is far smaller than the CDC projection that used the WHO's initial 3.4% mortality figure. Real numbers from Dutch and German testing shows 0.4-0.6%. 

With the follow on study on HCQ+Zpak, Dr. Raoult is showing a definite improvement and cure for all patients not yet on a ventilator. 

The whole schmeal is over. Stop with the fear mongering. The CDC, like the WHO were naive to believe any numbers or figures out of China. That was incompetence. 

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1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

The virus mortality is far smaller than the CDC projection that used the WHO's initial 3.4% mortality figure. Real numbers from Dutch and German testing shows 0.4-0.6%. 

With the follow on study on HCQ+Zpak, Dr. Raoult is showing a definite improvement and cure for all patients not yet on a ventilator. 

The whole schmeal is over. Stop with the fear mongering. The CDC, like the WHO were naive to believe any numbers or figures out of China. That was incompetence. 

Mortality rate is probably less than 1% but only if you have enough ventilators. Otherwise you'll have 3 or 4% because most of the people in need of a ventilator will die if they can't get one. This is why we have to flatten the curve as soon as possible.

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(edited)

If we would be insects, living for the common good of the national or global community measured only by economic output then Trump would be right.

Per the best South Korean data: 84% of fatalities are people over 70 nearly all of them have significant  negative economic value. Further 15.5% are people in ther 60s with zero or low economic value.   8% are people in their 50s. Only 2% of fatalities are people under 50.

Assume death rate with deteriorated Health care and many asymptomatic cases at 0.5%.

I assume total net economic value of people in the bracket 50-100 years old to be zero, cause that over 70 have significant negative economic value and they outnumber 50-69 bracket 4 to 1.

Assume 3 million US dollars of Lost economic value for the each fatalitiy under 50.

In country size of United States 330 million people, 1.65 million casualties.

2% of 1,650,000 = 33,000,

at 3 million dollars each it is only 99 billion dollars.

Unfortunately for Politicians humans are nit insects, so do not like this calculation.

Edited by Marcin2
Typo
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20 hours ago, John Foote said:

Not any more. We're number 1, we're number 1. And still woefully behind on testing, but catching up.

I dislike personal, but two personal stories. Friend of mine, nurse in Minnesota. In the hospital they are in the staff in her ward aren't allowed to wear masks. They are far short, and are saving them until more arrive, or after their first know cases and then they'll presumably use until they run out. Second, a relative by marriage. Rural Lousiana, checks all the boxes of what Hillary foolishly terms a deplorable, their child is currently losing his battle. Mardi Gras was, as we are learning now, a super spreader event. 

The USA is supposed to have a strategic reserve of masks. And did have one, but used it up in I think 2009. A failure of the Obama administration to not restock. 

Once it got out of China, closing borders to China was OK, but should have been everyone from China, not just Chinese Nationals. Once it was out, closing borders need to be across the board. Locking the front door when you leave the back door and windows wide open doesn't get the job done. Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, they reacted hard and quickly. We could have in theory reacted as quickly. Maybe it won't matter, but we are still in the data collection phase. We essentially have bet this won't be a kill millions of people deal. Probably won't. I am glad I am not an Indian (Asia subcontinent). Oddly enough, in this case KSA is more advanced.

Absolutely I want business resuming as soon as possible. Heck, in Texas as no state wide restrictions. I am working, and not just remotely. 

There's no way on earth the Chinese figures are right, 5 million Chinese left Wuhan for their new year holiday (or what ever it's called), there's probably hundreds of thousands or more likely millions in China that got it and the death toll looks fanciful as well.

But for some reason we've all destroyed our economies becuase hey China did it and it worked. How do we know they haven't had a death toll 10x 100x or even more?

In my opinion (and I'm not replying to you to disagree with most of what you said) this is a very big lesson in what happens when our democratic countries become so divided, we've still got many people using this problem as a political football.

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Hope China is held accountable and since Trump is using the Defense Act,we need to demand that all manufacturing of medical supplies and drugs be made in the United States of America.  How many pandemics from China do we need before we wake up.  We need to put out the sign that reads "dead end" to Xi's One Belt, One Road policy.

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1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

Assume 3 million US dollars of Lost economic value for the each fatalitiy under 50

Before I assume it, where are you pulling this from?  Since this forms the foundation of your point, I would like to see some support.   Also, define economic value.  Right now people over 65 hold 83% of the nations wealth.  

 

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1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

If we would be insects, living for the common good of the national or global community measured only by economic output then Trump would be right.

Per the best South Korean data: 84% of fatalities are people over 70 nearly all of them have significant  negative economic value. Further 15.5% are people in ther 60s with zero or low economic value.   8% are people in their 50s. Only 2% of fatalities are people under 50.

Assume death rate with deteriorated Health care and many asymptomatic cases at 0.5%.

I assume total net economic value of people in the bracket 50-100 years old to be zero, cause that over 70 have significant negative economic value and they outnumber 50-69 bracket 4 to 1.

Assume 3 million US dollars of Lost economic value for the each fatalitiy under 50.

In country size of United States 330 million people, 1.65 million casualties.

2% of 1,650,000 = 33,000,

at 3 million dollars each it is only 99 billion dollars.

Unfortunately for Politicians humans are nit insects, so do not like this calculation.

Unfortunately for Politicians, they are usually old... but yes not paying for caring for the old will boost the economy.

I'm 41

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(edited)

5 minutes ago, George8944 said:

Before I assume it, where are you pulling this from?  Since this forms the foundation of your point, I would like to see some support.   Also, define economic value.  Right now people over 65 hold 83% of the nations wealth.  

 

Creating wealth versus holding wealth; children will inherit the held wealth.

Edited by Enthalpic

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19 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Creating wealth versus holding wealth; children will inherit the held wealth.

LOL!  Yes, and once that happens they will be in the age group of no economic consequences.  You are niave if you think people above 65 don't create wealth. Tell that to Warren Buffet.  

I agree as we age there is more burden on the social safety net, but that's not because of our age.  It's because Congress didn't think through what they were doing when they increased benefits to win votes.

 

 

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Worth a listen but all the way to the end of you do.

 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, George8944 said:

LOL!  Yes, and once that happens they will be in the age group of no economic consequences.  You are niave if you think people above 65 don't create wealth. Tell that to Warren Buffet.  

I agree as we age there is more burden on the social safety net, but that's not because of our age.  It's because Congress didn't think through what they were doing when they increased benefits to win votes.

Does Warren Buffet produce a product?  No.  So, does he create wealth(production), NO.  He provides a service at best which helps with one hand and feeds upon those who PRODUCE wealth. Parasite?  Partially.  Produce wealth? Mostly no. 

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com

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I keep hearing this incessant whining concerning the supply of ventilators and the constant demand to be supplied with more.

I get it, more ventilators are needed, but at the moment, it is what it is. There are presently X amount of ventilators available in each country. No country is going to give ventilators to any other country until they are SURE that they do not need them themselves.

In the US, each State has so many ventilators available. They will hold these for their own use. The politicians in New York were unprepared and stuck their heads in the sand until they were behind the virus curve and now feel that they should be entitled to the resources of others.

Until GM and others retool and get production going, we’ll have to work with what we have!

Has any other country mandated that their industries retool and start manufacturing ventilators? I’m curious.

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4 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

If we would be insects, living for the common good of the national or global community measured only by economic output then Trump would be right.

Per the best South Korean data: 84% of fatalities are people over 70 nearly all of them have significant  negative economic value. Further 15.5% are people in ther 60s with zero or low economic value.   8% are people in their 50s. Only 2% of fatalities are people under 50.

Assume death rate with deteriorated Health care and many asymptomatic cases at 0.5%.

I assume total net economic value of people in the bracket 50-100 years old to be zero, cause that over 70 have significant negative economic value and they outnumber 50-69 bracket 4 to 1.

Assume 3 million US dollars of Lost economic value for the each fatalitiy under 50.

In country size of United States 330 million people, 1.65 million casualties.

2% of 1,650,000 = 33,000,

at 3 million dollars each it is only 99 billion dollars.

Unfortunately for Politicians humans are nit insects, so do not like this calculation.

The 50-65 and working 65-75 are the most valuable grouping on the supply side as they are high productivity and upper management and consultants. The problem isn't that they cost the economy, the problem is that they save so much of what they earn. So they don't drive consumer led economies, they drive export led and investment driven economies. They fund the expenditures of the under 40 or 45 spending wave. They fund the capital that provides the younger generation's jobs and incomes. 

The nil or negative economic value starts at age 70-75 depending on which country. 

For most people not in a physically demanding job, half to 60% of their lifetime earnings are had at the above 50 age group. They are the heart of the high income group. 

Rework the stats. I can assure you that the concern was economic as well in the decision to quarantine. Americans in particular have a high degree of diabetes and heart disease because of the high consumption of refined sugar and processed starch. 

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32 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Does Warren Buffet produce a product?  No.  So, does he create wealth(production), NO.  He provides a service at best which helps with one hand and feeds upon those who PRODUCE wealth. Parasite?  Partially.  Produce wealth? Mostly no. 

BS

The highest value input is judgment. Experienced decision makers are valuable.

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And Oreo cookies! Don’t forget the Oreo cookies!

( Translation for our British contingent: These would be ‘Oreo BISQUITS’)

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