ronwagn

What If ‘We’d Adopted A More Conventional Response To This Epidemic?’

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A lot of people (10 million in the US) would die. The rest would have immunity.

High fatality rates would lead to panic - people would try to flee hot zones, as they have been in New York recently. Instead of people being 'at home not working', they would be 'on the road not working'.

This would lead to a lot of distrust. People would be dressed up in space suits. A lot of behavior would have the surface appearance of paranoia.

There are no good options as matters stand at the moment.

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Sorry Meredith but I don't think that has much basis in reality. New York was slow to close the border, very slow to act and very bad at preparing for an epidemic. Their urban environment was a disaster waiting to happen. It is one of the main places that needed to take drastic actions, but partly due to their lack of preparation! 

IMO we needed masks, social distancing, hand washing, keeping the aged and infirm closeted away from infectious people and using whatever test kits we had available rather than saying they were worthless and we had to approve new ones. That wasted time. We should not have allowed our masks and gloves to be shipped overseas by 3M and other companies. Failure to adopt proven hydroxychloroquine treatment together with Azithromycin was another FDA screw up. Basically Fauci and company delayed a lot of good actions and has greatly harmed the economy through giving bad advice together with large and repeated doses of hysteria inducing statements. 

https://www.independentsentinel.com/doctors-who-use-hydroxychloroquine-say-its-the-best-hope-for-treatment-of-the-virus/

 

My CCP coronavirus stories. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MXY8T0j7k0oUBsHW4BfjJM__DRIyzqrDf_FSlV4hHpw/edit#

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And if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

What is with all this ‘Monday morning quarterbacking/second guessing/finger pointing’...at this time! 

It is what it is and we’ve got what we’ve got, all this ‘blaming’ will accomplish absolutely nothing. Mistakes were made and people will die from these mistakes. An ‘after action’ review needs to occur to upgrade our responses to a pandemic such as this, but let’s work together and do our parts to address the issue with the tools we have at hand.

Now is not the time for this distraction!

 

 

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/02/countries-succeeding-flattening-curve-coronavirus-testing-quarantine/?fbclid=IwAR2U_JtP-hZgQkzu2cg5glDT_tG9fCL-NvEoNeIRFkGOaBj7_AigIPs3Ob0

The playbook on what to do is well established. As a country we are still lagards in testing. The basic lack of a national health system against us, but we can overcome that.

And fundamental test is still missing, a test for antibodies, personnel resistance. To get back to real normal, we need a vaccine and lacking that, a way to establish folks with resistance and deploy those folks to the front lines helping. 

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36 minutes ago, John Foote said:

And fundamental test is still missing, a test for antibodies, personnel resistance. To get back to real normal, we need a vaccine and lacking that, a way to establish folks with resistance and deploy those folks to the front lines helping. 

Very good insight, and perfectly right.

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I love how the left is blatantly ignoring the fact that New York's politicians literally encouraged people to go about their lives normally. "Nah, it's all Trump's fault, even though when he closed the borders we called him xenophobic." 

Then we've got the cretin Trevor Noah telling lies (like the other outlets) about chloroquine since some high school chem failures in Arizona don't know what a phosphate functional group is. 

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11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

And if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

What is with all this ‘Monday morning quarterbacking/second guessing/finger pointing’...at this time! 

It is what it is and we’ve got what we’ve got, all this ‘blaming’ will accomplish absolutely nothing. Mistakes were made and people will die from these mistakes. An ‘after action’ review needs to occur to upgrade our responses to a pandemic such as this, but let’s work together and do our parts to address the issue with the tools we have at hand.

Now is not the time for this distraction!

 

 

Now is the time to quit the scare mongering and get the economy working to the extent possible. 

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8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Now is the time to quit the scare mongering and get the economy working to the extent possible. 

Way to early to worry about the economy. Let’s talk in three months.

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5 minutes ago, Boat said:

Way to early to worry about the economy. Let’s talk in three months.

In three months a third of small businesses may be done for, I hope as many as possible survive. 

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(edited)

What’s funny is how a few right posters now blame politicians for not spending money on planning and preparation. They forget cutting taxes and running up federal debt was far more important.

 

Edited by Boat

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(edited)

27 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

In three months a third of small businesses may be done for, I hope as many as possible survive. 

Yes, people not weak businesses.

Without customers they won't do too well either - open doors or not.

There are so many safety net measures being put in place.

 

Edited by Enthalpic
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32 minutes ago, Boat said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/03/germany-has-a-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-heres-why.html

Look at the 4th reason Germany is doing better so far. US ideology will not allow for this kind of planning. It’s all about profit, not preparation. But that ideology bit the US in the butt. You reap what you sow.

Having more test kits may have helped. Germany has done an excellent job of providing medical care with few deaths. I see nothing here that our ideology has to do with it. Germany has a mixed health care system that allows for private insurance. Maybe you could explain what you are talking about that is different. I know one German minister just committed suicide he was so fraught with emotion, like our admiral that had to be relieved of duty. 

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24 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Yes, people not weak businesses.

Without customers they won't do too well either - open doors or not.

There are so many safety net measures being put in place.

 

My wife and I are each getting a check that we do not need but will put the money into the economy ASAP. We are setting up a chicken coop she has wanted for a long time but now that we are stuck at home we can take care of them. We won't be spending money on gasoline, motels, restaurants though. Canada will have to do without a lot of tourism too. 

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We're going to need a low corporate tax rate in the coming months. A republican president would do nicely for this particular feature. 

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15 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.judicialwatch.org/tom-fittons-weekly-update/128828/ FBI shutting down Freedom of Information Act "due to coronavirus". This should be scary to ever American. 

Not sure why you read crap like that but to each his own. Saw nothing related to the Freedom of information act. But to the idea that both parties will abuse the law and create law to prefer one side over the other is not new news. Read about the whisky rebellion and see how our founder raised taxes.

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.judicialwatch.org/tom-fittons-weekly-update/128828/ FBI shutting down Freedom of Information Act "due to coronavirus". This should be scary to ever American. 

Actually while i do agree with cleaning things up right now is not the time, Institutions across the world are being challenged right now, the very last thing the US needs right now is FBI and the rest of the community be hauled out. With that being said there is enough known that some will be taken to the woodshed so to speak...We live in interesting times..very challenging for all of us.

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18 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

A lot of people (10 million in the US) would die. The rest would have immunity.

High fatality rates would lead to panic - people would try to flee hot zones, as they have been in New York recently. Instead of people being 'at home not working', they would be 'on the road not working'.

This would lead to a lot of distrust. People would be dressed up in space suits. A lot of behavior would have the surface appearance of paranoia.

There are no good options as matters stand at the moment.

Garbage. 

Fatality rates in Italy at the worst of the crisis are an order of magnitude below that. 

The bulk numbers NOT from official counts but rough estimates are 160k dead among 8-9 million infected in Wuhan China. That is 2% mortality for a largely untreated population with overwhelmed hospitals. NY Times showed overall deviation  of death rates in the central infection areas of Italy and Spain. Over 1/3 of the deaths are of people with relatively minor injury or disease that did not obtain treatment, rather than from direct deaths related to a CV19 infection. 

We will have good numbers from antibody tests once the Chinese kits and their random results are taken off the market. We will see contagion rates and propagation and penetration. We can already see propagation from Cell phone connected thermometers which show elevated temperature prevalence among temperature takers. Since fever is the lead and most common symptom, it gives us a good idea of how the propagation proceeds. 

image.png.27e8e4a762f11e0e9f6bdfd58042d40f.png

image.thumb.png.27c4883b88ef787ae7056eb66a3e047f.png

https://healthweather.us/?regionId=12099&mode=Atypical

There is far more information available than you think and there is yet to be a regional randomized sampling anywhere to determine penetration. So we can see already what a top level worst case scenario is and it is 2% of infections. As to the percentage of symptomatic cases, it should be noted that it is extremely age dependent and goes from near nothing in children and young adults to under 0.1% in adults to 1% in the middle age to retirement group and then 10% in the elderly over 75, with the average age at death being 80 while the average age at hospitalization is 65-70 depending on location. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Garbage. 

Fatality rates in Italy at the worst of the crisis are an order of magnitude below that. 

 

The percentage of infected who died in Italy was very high, but absolute numbers of infection and death in the US is well on track to dwarf their pain.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

+1314 deaths in one day.

USA #1

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(edited)

16 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

 there is yet to be a regional randomized sampling anywhere to determine penetration.

 

Yet, you have made up stats saying 40% of people have been infected, recovered,  and are now immune.

Perhaps in another thread, but still, made up stats and you just admitted it.

Edited by Enthalpic

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Just now, Enthalpic said:

The percentage of infected who died in Italy was very high, but absolute numbers of infection and death in the US is well on track to dwarf their pain.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

+1314 deaths in one day.

USA #1

11% of symptomatic cases. Not of infections. The vast majority of cases do not get to be tested at all. Not at the hospital nor in the clinic. The guidelines are focused on preserving test kits, not helping patients. 

NYC had the most rapid spread and is measuring extremely high rates of virus among people tested, over 50%. It will soon be dwarfed by Miami post spring break. They were overrun by door knob lickers from NYC etc. who probably have a 90% infection rate. Same as the kids in Italy that were sent off to infect granny when they started the lockdown because nobody thought to check the occurrence rate of the virus among Children. So everybody presumed they were fine since they had no symptoms. Despite us knowing for sure that they are asymptomatic carriers that sit on top of each other in class all day, thus assuring everyone is infected. Medical triage leading test allocation was a mistake. You HAD TO provide testing for determination of key epidemiological factors, which nobody at all anywhere on the planet has reported yet. 

If you are not treating the virus then why the heck are you testing for it? See France and Italy that PROHIBITED any antiviral treatment. 

 

 

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