What If ‘We’d Adopted A More Conventional Response To This Epidemic?’

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

11% of symptomatic cases. Not of infections. The vast majority of cases do not get to be tested at all. Not at the hospital nor in the clinic. The guidelines are focused on preserving test kits, not helping patients. 

NYC had the most rapid spread and is measuring extremely high rates of virus among people tested, over 50%. It will soon be dwarfed by Miami post spring break. They were overrun by door knob lickers from NYC etc. who probably have a 90% infection rate. Same as the kids in Italy that were sent off to infect granny when they started the lockdown because nobody thought to check the occurrence rate of the virus among Children. So everybody presumed they were fine since they had no symptoms. Despite us knowing for sure that they are asymptomatic carriers that sit on top of each other in class all day, thus assuring everyone is infected. Medical triage leading test allocation was a mistake. You HAD TO provide testing for determination of key epidemiological factors, which nobody at all anywhere on the planet has reported yet. 

If you are not treating the virus then why the heck are you testing for it? See France and Italy that PROHIBITED any antiviral treatment. 

 

 

Florida is also allowing churches to keep going. Not a good idea.

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Yet, you have made up stats saying 40% of people have been infected, recovered,  and are now immune.

Perhaps in another thread, but still, made up stats and you just admitted it.

We don't have the measure - a widely applied antibody test.

It is not a made up number but a very rough estimate. The top county reporting highest positive ratios is Queens at 57%. That is for symptomatic cases. What about the other 38-40% with symptoms but not a live virus? We know that it is very unlikely to be a flu as flu rates drop by 2/3 within 5 days of quarantine. But it is likely to be a negative because they only presented to the hospital due to prolonged dyspnea or coughing but had been rid of the virus. BTW, those -rarely get hospitalized it seems. 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

We don't have the measure - a widely applied antibody test.

It is not a made up number but a very rough estimate. The top county reporting highest positive ratios is Queens at 57%. That is for symptomatic cases. What about the other 38-40% with symptoms but not a live virus? We know that it is very unlikely to be a flu as flu rates drop by 2/3 within 5 days of quarantine. But it is likely to be a negative because they only presented to the hospital due to prolonged dyspnea or coughing but had been rid of the virus. BTW, those -rarely get hospitalized it seems. 

 

I agree many will have few symptoms and therefore won't report to clinic for testing. I certainly won't be going to a hospital unless I feel very sick.

So I agree the death rate is lower than reported, but that also implies infection rates are higher then reported (more contagious).

Edited April 3, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/03/germany-has-a-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-heres-why.html

Look at the 4th reason Germany is doing better so far. US ideology will not allow for this kind of planning. It’s all about profit, not preparation. But that ideology bit the US in the butt. You reap what you sow.

Indeed just ask this guy about living in the moment....

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, Enthalpic said:

I agree many will have few symptoms and therefore won't report to clinic for testing. I certainly won't be going to a hospital unless I feel very sick.

So I agree the death rate is lower than reported, but that also implies infection rates are higher then reported (more contagious).

That was exactly my point from the start. 

That NYC missed the boat by not closing shop in Mar 1. By the time they closed shop on 3.14 (official 3.16,, a Monday) At least 1/3 the population of the metro area had been infected. Then they would have eventually infected their households. 

There is one stat needed from the Diamond Princess - how may got infected, which we didn't have since there was no antibody test yet. 18% of avg age <60 passengers testing positive had no symptoms at all. 45% had either no symptoms or extremely mild ones. 55% had substantial symptoms. We don't know how many of the 2800-2900 passengers tested negative were exposed to the virus but had already been cured. Dr. Raoult says mild symptom patients who cure themselves of the disease without drug intervention are still carrying the live virus at least 1 week, avg <2 weeks and up to 3 after symptoms cease. That would have provided a figure for contagion. I don't really believe that without professionally managed quarantine they managed to limit exposure to just 20%. 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/02/tucker-carlson-shutdown-strategy-coronavirus/

 

Tucker Questions Severity Of Shutdown Strategy: What If ‘We’d Adopted A More Conventional Response To This Epidemic?’

He is entirely right. 

Neal Howe proposed that as the most efficient option.

It is not a mystery that the disease is highly selective. The elderly and the ill are very specifically at risk. There was never the slightest excuse to command the entire economy to shut down.

I think it is time for a constitutional amendment to eliminate entirely emergency powers of any level of government. Including quarantines, martial law, and curfews. And very much eliminate the power of "commands" meaning that no government body can issue commands to individuals. Not by law not by executive order and not on the basis of any need. 

This fiasco has proven that the generalized political instinct is irrational, disproportionate, counter productive, self sabotaging and STUPID. They could have subsidized the assistance to the self quarantined. But the aim of stopping the disease was stupid. It just means we are susceptible to it again because we stopped its progression before most of us got it. Of course, NYC didn't do any of it right. They didn't quarantine the susceptible high risk group and didn't make an effort to stop the spread till it was too late, and then they stopped everything AFTER most of the people had been infected. By which time it was no more beneficial than waving of hands. 

I would add that the entire government at all levels should get their terms suspended and election come up next Nov. to replace them upon declaration of emergency. The session's laws all expire by the time the next congress is in session. They actively must renew all the trash they enacted before individually or it expires. 

[Meredith Poor + 883]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Florida is also allowing churches to keep going. Not a good idea.

Actually not. They arrested one pastor in Tampa that held a service with a congregation of 500 people.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/hillsborough/2020/04/02/tampa-pastor-arrested-for-defying-virus-orders-closes-church-due-to-tyrannical-government/

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

Actually not. They arrested one pastor in Tampa that held a service with a congregation of 500 people.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/hillsborough/2020/04/02/tampa-pastor-arrested-for-defying-virus-orders-closes-church-due-to-tyrannical-government/

 

Thanks for the correction

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Meredith Poor said:

Actually not. They arrested one pastor in Tampa that held a service with a congregation of 500 people.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/hillsborough/2020/04/02/tampa-pastor-arrested-for-defying-virus-orders-closes-church-due-to-tyrannical-government/

 

How convenient. My church has services online that we watch. I am OK with that but it should be the decision of the church and its members, not the government. There is no constitutional right to do that in America. All those that want to risk their lives by going to a meeting should follow all recommended precautions IMO. Most churchgoers are old so they know they are at high risk. The same freedom goes for the assemblies of atheists or whatever. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Actually while i do agree with cleaning things up right now is not the time, Institutions across the world are being challenged right now, the very last thing the US needs right now is FBI and the rest of the community be hauled out. With that being said there is enough known that some will be taken to the woodshed so to speak...We live in interesting times..very challenging for all of us.

It never is the right time for the Deep State to follow the law, just to pretend to follow the law and claim that they actually do always follow it. Do you realize that every FISA application was flawed but all were OK'd and not one FISA Judge ever questioned them? Glacial speed in following FOIA is legendary throughout the Deep State. 

[WayneMechEng + 89]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Now is the time to quit the scare mongering and get the economy working to the extent possible. 

As a retired engineer, may I agree more than 100% ?

I woke up about 5 am this morning and felt the need to email my Canadian representatives (I am a dual citizen, born in California) with reasons for getting back to work ASAP.  This included many protocols I have heard about on TV regarding protective measures that are practical.  This was the second time I wrote government on that subject.  (I even get replies on occasion where ideas were forwarded.)  Trudeau will ruin Canada's economy with his current policies.

(I have spent more time writing to my representatives on various subjects, than reacting to Oilprice communities.)

[ronwagn + 6,290]

23 hours ago, Boat said:

Not sure why you read crap like that but to each his own. Saw nothing related to the Freedom of information act. But to the idea that both parties will abuse the law and create law to prefer one side over the other is not new news. Read about the whisky rebellion and see how our founder raised taxes.

So you really are not interested in American rights and favor the Deep State? Were you against Brexit? Pro globalism? Climate alarmism?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/3/2020 at 10:57 PM, WayneMechEng said:

As a retired engineer, may I agree more than 100% ?

I woke up about 5 am this morning and felt the need to email my Canadian representatives (I am a dual citizen, born in California) with reasons for getting back to work ASAP.  This included many protocols I have heard about on TV regarding protective measures that are practical.  This was the second time I wrote government on that subject.  (I even get replies on occasion where ideas were forwarded.)  Trudeau will ruin Canada's economy with his current policies.

(I have spent more time writing to my representatives on various subjects, than reacting to Oilprice communities.)

You have my full appreciation for writing. I have all liberal Democrats here in Illinois except for my RINO representative who is better than the alternative. 

We need to follow all the guidelines to prevent getting the CCP Coronavirus but we can get NYC over its hump and then the others. We have several production issues that need to be dealt with as they are: ventilators, masks, gloves, hydroxychloraquine, azithromycin, other meds, plasma from survivors, etc.

We need to create and manufacture a great vaccine or vaccine and then get it out to the elderly and infirm first and then to everyone else possible. 

The American people are doing a good job, but we cannot allow anything to destroy our freedoms as stated in our Constitution and Bill of Rights. Pressing for voluntary cooperation is good, but I am seeing some mayors and governors who want to act like petty dictators and are showing their true tendencies. Rural folks should not be expected to follow the same guidelines as those far away from urban areas who happen to control the state government. 

Using the coronavirus as an excuse for the FBI to not follow the federal FISA law is criminal IMO. They, once again seem to be above the law and above fairplay. They are public servants and NOT public masters. The same goes for the RCMP and whatever else you Canadians have. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by ronwagn

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 4/2/2020 at 11:35 PM, Meredith Poor said:

A lot of people (10 million in the US) would die. The rest would have immunity.

High fatality rates would lead to panic - people would try to flee hot zones, as they have been in New York recently. Instead of people being 'at home not working', they would be 'on the road not working'.

This would lead to a lot of distrust. People would be dressed up in space suits. A lot of behavior would have the surface appearance of paranoia.

There are no good options as matters stand at the moment.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-nobel-prize-winner-predicts-210243470.html

Coronavirus: Nobel Prize winner predicts US will get through crisis sooner than expected

[Boat + 1,315]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:28 PM, ronwagn said:

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/will_trump_betray_us_after_corona.html

Ron, your americanthinker post says the public will wake up and reject the steps taken to fight the spread of the virus. 
My rebuttal is that even if hundreds of thousands die the loony right will keep posting this kind of trash. 
There are plenty of red states like Trump who represent continual denial as the charts of the infected skyrocket. No it’s the race of to little to late and of course attacking any complaint and rejecting the ideas of accountability and responsibility.

Poor Trump has no clue how to save lives and pacify these red right groups. Cat on a hot tin roof is where he’s at. Bottom line he’s a politician but not a manager and it’s showing.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 minutes ago, Boat said:

Ron, your americanthinker post says the public will wake up and reject the steps taken to fight the spread of the virus. 
My rebuttal is that even if hundreds of thousands die the loony right will keep posting this kind of trash. 
There are plenty of red states like Trump who represent continual denial as the charts of the infected skyrocket. No it’s the race of to little to late and of course attacking any complaint and rejecting the ideas of accountability and responsibility.

Poor Trump has no clue how to save lives and pacify these red right groups. Cat on a hot tin roof is where he’s at. Bottom line he’s a politician but not a manager and it’s showing.

Thanks for being frank. I now understand where you are coming from. You are a left wing loon, so there is no point in trying to convince you of anything because you are not interested in facts. You are interested in promoting socialism, statism, big government. Not much interested in individual rights or smaller government that is less intrusive.  I will just rebut your statements without attempting to have a coherent discussion with you. 

[Boat + 1,315]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:56 PM, ronwagn said:

Having more test kits may have helped. Germany has done an excellent job of providing medical care with few deaths. I see nothing here that our ideology has to do with it. Germany has a mixed health care system that allows for private insurance. Maybe you could explain what you are talking about that is different. I know one German minister just committed suicide he was so fraught with emotion, like our admiral that had to be relieved of duty. 

I’m glad you think more test kits may have helped. Let me add the US alone should have been testing millions every week and then retesting every week for some time. This is the mental disconnect between how we think so differently. This requires a huge mobilization by the Federal and state governments that should have happened back in early Feb at the latest. 
That type of response may have very well shortened the economic crash. Your right wing web sites don’t mention this simple common sense type of thinking. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

57 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Thanks for being frank. I now understand where you are coming from. You are a left wing loon, so there is no point in trying to convince you of anything because you are not interested in facts. You are interested in promoting socialism, statism, big government. Not much interested in individual rights or smaller government that is less intrusive.  I will just rebut your statements without attempting to have a coherent discussion with you. 

You need not worry to much about the actors playing in the intel community, there number is up. A personal opinion would be...once the net is securely around the few action will be taken of some sort not headline grabbing but something will happen. RIght now the big fish are being closed in on..

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/john-durham-investigation-intensifies-focus-on-john-brennan

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/trump-fires-intelligence-community-inspector-general-164287

https://www.google.com/search?q=john+durham+investigation&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS888US888&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi84Mju58_oAhXqGDQIHc9QBp8Q_AUoAXoECBUQAw&biw=1094&bih=506&dpr=1.25

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/490691-justice-ig-pours-fuel-on-looming-fight-over-fisa-court

Bottom Line: We got Punked.....hmm is got a word?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/03/surveillance-court-cites-lack-confidence-fbi-surveillance/2944403001/

 

 

[Boat + 1,315]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Thanks for being frank. I now understand where you are coming from. You are a left wing loon, so there is no point in trying to convince you of anything because you are not interested in facts. You are interested in promoting socialism, statism, big government. Not much interested in individual rights or smaller government that is less intrusive.  I will just rebut your statements without attempting to have a coherent discussion with you. 

I am not here to be convinced and neither are you but this lefty loon is right of you on tax breaks for corporations. Right of you on immigration which is still allowed. The deficit and debt should be a much lar

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

23 hours ago, 0R0 said:

NYC missed the boat by not closing shop in Mar 1

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1246503943745626112

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Wow, great work. You caught me up on my topic Critical Information on the Trump, Obama, and Hillary Investigations 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1choW_wq0D5DfjRPjqLlAkfxCnnVJhRzrHeXppE6D4E8/edit#heading=h.ghtl0kdc7gs2

I added your stories. I have been preoccupied with the CCP Coronavirus. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

46 minutes ago, Boat said:

I am not here to be convinced and neither are you but this lefty loon is right of you on tax breaks for corporations. Right of you on immigration which is still allowed. The deficit and debt should be a much lar

There is no way you are right of me on immigration or the deficit. I would have to know what you consider tax breaks for corporations. I have never noticed you speaking to either topic, but good for you if you do!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

I’m glad you think more test kits may have helped. Let me add the US alone should have been testing millions every week and then retesting every week for some time. This is the mental disconnect between how we think so differently. This requires a huge mobilization by the Federal and state governments that should have happened back in early Feb at the latest. 
That type of response may have very well shortened the economic crash. Your right wing web sites don’t mention this simple common sense type of thinking. 

Well, you are incoherent once again. The Obama Administration raided the stocks of PPE and whatever other medical supplies we had and never bothered to replace them. That was during the Swine Flu Debacle. That was a responsibility of our bureaucracy that has little to do with the current administration. It should have automatically been replenished. Obama built a very large and corrupt administration and had the largest bureaucracy in American history. He apparently also built a secret service operation to defeat President Trump before Trump was even a candidate for office. That may be OK with you and the Liberal Party that was running your government at the time. They did play a role in the effort, at least Steele was happy to come up with a bogus report. I haven't heard a peep from anyone helping to disclose the activities on the British side. 

[J.mo + 165]

Now that they are finally admitting this spreads airborne like its cousin SARS, because go figure that's what it is. SARS-CoV-2. 

What's Everyones thought on respirators. I have full face respirators for the lady and I. P100 cartridges. 

I Was in the hazmat field for 5 years out of school. Other than stopping short of supplied air and scba's the best option on cartridges seems to be a p100. 99.97% filtration of particles .3 micon and larger. However we all know this virus is much smaller in size. This makes me uneasy on the efficacy of filtration. However, I did find this publication. Different virus, I am unsure of size comparison. Maybe Gerry can chime in. 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24011377/

Edited April 5, 2020 by J.mo

[0R0 + 6,251]

9 hours ago, Boat said:

Ron, your americanthinker post says the public will wake up and reject the steps taken to fight the spread of the virus. 
My rebuttal is that even if hundreds of thousands die the loony right will keep posting this kind of trash. 
There are plenty of red states like Trump who represent continual denial as the charts of the infected skyrocket. No it’s the race of to little to late and of course attacking any complaint and rejecting the ideas of accountability and responsibility.

Poor Trump has no clue how to save lives and pacify these red right groups. Cat on a hot tin roof is where he’s at. Bottom line he’s a politician but not a manager and it’s showing.

The charts of the infected are not skyrocketing the same way in all locations since it is the dense urban centers and their immediate suburbs that carry the vast bulk of infections. Take the big city centers and you have most of the infections. But most people do not live in the city centers, but around them or in the dispersed suburbs of smaller cities. . While the key CV19 centers showed a sharp upturn in elevated temperature readings on the Kinsa database, the rest of the country only had a minor bump or two. CA and WA have a  subdued bump  because of earlier efforts to stop the disease with physical distancing. Now they already show well below normal rates of even the flu. The entire country shows a steep drop in occurrence rates of high temperatures following the general Federal shelter in place recommendation. That should show up with a lag of 16 or so days for dyspnea symptoms and  positive tests. Earlier for mild cases tested outside the hospital. Deaths are at a 3 week lag. So there should be the start to a drop in daily deaths sometime around next week. Unfortunately the high infection penetration areas are showing a slower drop in elevated temp. rates so would plateau for a week rather than drop.