Why I Will Never Trade Natural Gas

Trading natural gas is about as close as you get to gambling. You can follow the fundamentals but, unlike other resources, you're only getting half the picture--the rest is held hostage to Mother Nature, and she's an wildly unpredictable &^%$@. There are people out there who go as far as to sign up for these amazingly complicated weather charts looking days and weeks ahead. They're like storm watchers or tornado chasers. And right now they're out in full force, watching and waiting to see if we're going to have a real winter to boost natural gas prices. Here's a case in point: 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4130430-mother-nature-pummeling-natural-gas-bulls

Who does this? Plenty of natural resources to choose from, why trade with Mother Nature?

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Nothing is predictable. Following these weather charts is a bit overkill perhaps, but there are plenty of fundamentals to follow and we're seeing that now. 

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Trading it with futures isn't quite as risky as long as you're strict about setting stops. Some of those leveraged ETFs and their options can be treated similarly, but I consider the futures method as I can always manually sell or re-adjust my stop and lock-in more profit or cut out with less loss.


I agree with Selesyka comment, but I have noticed a bit of funkiness that I chalk up to manipulation against the obvious trade using those weather patterns.

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3 hours ago, androsForm said:

Trading it with futures isn't quite as risky as long as you're strict about setting stops. Some of those leveraged ETFs and their options can be treated similarly, but I consider the futures method as I can always manually sell or re-adjust my stop and lock-in more profit or cut out with less loss.


I agree with Selesyka comment, but I have noticed a bit of funkiness that I chalk up to manipulation against the obvious trade using those weather patterns.

Exactly. As long as you're smart about it, you can limit the risks to comfortable levels, regardless of the commodity. Commodity trading in general is for advanced practitioners anyway.

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