China declared war on the US in May 2019. Covid19 is part of that war

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Warning strike of 5 warheads of 500 kt each leaves Britain or France devastated, large countries continue with still over 90% of resources.

 

You do understand that there is no such thing as a nuclear warning shot. The next minute after launch sees the entire global arsenal en route to Beijing. 

This is garbage war games off of X box.

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

20 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Hoo boy.  Careful there Rob.  Drinking and posting and being blunt can cause ... hangovers.

No shit Tom!

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

13 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

I know that UK and US subs are quiet and superior in comparison to noisy Chinese ones.

What I am trying to say is that it matters only between non nuclear powers.

In the darkest hours of Cold War NEVER any American , British or Soviet vessel or other important military asset was directly attacked out of Well defined local proxy war games area.

Cause this according to MAD doctrine would ensure intensive conventional and later nuclear counter attack.

This is common knowledge and was trained in many military games but I would repeat this.

Russia, US and China each have territory equal or over 10 million square kilometres with population industry and military spread around vast area.

Britain and France are small countries.

Warning strike of 5 warheads of 500 kt each leaves Britain or France devastated, large countries continue with still over 90% of resources.

Britain and France even using their whole arsenal against China or Russia still keeps the countries functioning and ready for Second strike. 100 warheads at Britain or France kills over half of population and  country does nit exist.

The same is with all other nuclear powers bar India and all developed countries.
That is why at the end of the day only US , China and Russia count in modern total war.

Wow just wow!

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

12 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

You do understand that there is no such thing as a nuclear warning shot. The next minute after launch sees the entire global arsenal en route to Beijing. 

This is garbage war games off of X box.

^ 

This @Marcin is exactly right!

wake up man!

[Marcin2 + 724]

13 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

You do understand that there is no such thing as a nuclear warning shot. The next minute after launch sees the entire global arsenal en route to Beijing. 

This is garbage war games off of X box.

There is such  thing although it is risky. Both powers go first to highest level of military alarm. You strike and immediately call where first warhead would land, best in desert area, doable. You ask where their 1 warhead would land. There are good radars.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Britain and France even using their whole arsenal against China or Russia still keeps the countries functioning and ready for Second strike. 100 warheads at Britain or France kills over half of population and  country does nit exist.

 

You obviously don't get any of the circumstance, you keep jumping to direct war events when nobody has made a move against either China or Russia.

 There is no total war. 

Nobody can start a total war. since nobody can survive a total war.

These are not war circumstances. It is the breakdown of the world trade order into imperial structures as has always been the case before the US created the current system, which is too expensive and serves little US purpose. So the French cut an exclusive trade deal with some country in Africa. Do you think China sends off nukes to Paris to retaliate because they pay 15% more for some copper ore?

Do you actually imagine there is a next day in China after this? Would they do such things?

I think you are maneuvering out of one analytical circumstance you don't seem to comprehend into another one where 1950s MAD maps still pretend it matters at all what is left over. The CCP propaganda machine has no text for that one yet. Go find real analysis to mull. 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

33 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Hoo boy.  Careful there Rob.  Drinking and posting and being blunt can cause ... hangovers.

Yeah the best of it is I’m seemingly having a fight with M Ali !!!

i don’t fancy my chances!!!

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

There is such  things although it is rosły. Both powers go first to highest level of military alarm. You strike and immediately call where first warhead would land, best in desert area, doable in dictatorship. You ask where their 1 warhead would land. There are good radars.

Not that way.

The missiles on the other side leave the silos seconds after. There is no room for a ring. It isn't even intermediated if the National Leader has put it on high alert. 

I don't get why you are going to this well trodden corner with no possible outcome but total MAD. 

Drop this direction out of your lexicon of geopolitics. Besides which. Every large European capital has antimissile defenses. Shooting one off and having it blown out of the sky puts China or Russia into a terminal cutoff from the world. They would never do such a thing. 

 You are getting to Monty Python silly territory. 

[M_Ali + 32]

22 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Haha I’m a cowboy

brilliant logic there 

does that make you Tonto?

im not American!!!

i don’t live in America and never have!

how am I a cowboy ??

and you think you’re rational

the straight jacket awaits you mate!

Evidently you weren't paying attention to political misconceptions pointed out in my first comment when you were sober and I quoted the original famous anti CCP populist sentiment as expressed by the famous cowboy John Wayne! now that you are full of beer your are fully exempt.

Cheers,

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

Just now, M_Ali said:

Evidently you weren't paying attention to political misconceptions pointed out in my first comment when you were sober and I quoted the original famous anti CCP populist sentiment as expressed by the famous cowboy John Wayne! now that you are full of beer your are fully exempt.

Cheers,

M Ali who am I to argue?

me a singer from one of, if not the greatest bands ever, and you probably the greatest heavyweight champion of the wooooorld!

just joking mate 

look we disagree it’s cool, no worries!

chill my friend and enjoy lockdown 

if you can’t have a few beers in lockdown then God help you

lets pray the scientists get a vaccine soon to this abhorrent virus and stop the deaths.

i guess we can all agree on that regardless of what we believe.

agreed?

[M_Ali + 32]

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

M Ali who am I to argue?

me a singer from one of, if not the greatest bands ever, and you probably the greatest heavyweight champion of the wooooorld!

just joking mate 

look we disagree it’s cool, no worries!

chill my friend and enjoy lockdown 

if you can’t have a few beers in lockdown then God help you

lets pray the scientists get a vaccine soon to this abhorrent virus and stop the deaths.

i guess we can all agree on that regardless of what we believe.

agreed?

A singer interesting!

So you should know Artists and Poets have their own unique way of communicating with their audience which transcends time, cultural and geographical boundaries.  

An old cowboy went riding out one dark and windy day....

Ghost Riders in the Sky, song by many famous artists including Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, The Outlaws, Marty Robins and Tom Jones in Country, Rock, Western and swinging 60's style, take your pick and listen to the message and sing with them as I do.

There is a lot hidden in the concept of a cowboy than just a man in a dusty worn leather outfit ridding a pony rounding up cattle in huge Texas ranches; 

I enjoy all versions but enjoy the highly expressive dual performance by Willie & Johnny most.

The song message is beautifully crafted within an iconic cultural frame of mind and way of life but then transcends cultural boundaries and exposes man's follies  chasing his worldly demons for ever up in the sky without any intervention form the divine.

The song doesn't just entertain you it also questions and awakens you.

I'm not into boxing I play classic guitar. 

Cheers & enjoy

[Marcin2 + 724]

38 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

^ 

This @Marcin is exactly right!

wake up man!

I just had to follow @0R0 scenario even if it was surreal, to prove that global trade with or without the benevolent or sinister US Navy (whether you are NATO or China), would look just the same, cause no state actor would ever shoot at merchant marine Chinese or American, cause it leads fast to MAD scenario. It never happened in Cold War, it would not happen in the future.

Our world is so safe due to MAD concept, no matter how dangerous some incidents may look like.

[M_Ali + 32]

14 minutes ago, M_Ali said:

A singer interesting!

So you should know Artists and Poets have their own unique way of communicating with their audience which transcends time, cultural and geographical boundaries.  

An old cowboy went riding out one dark and windy day....

Ghost Riders in the Sky, song by many famous artists including Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, The Outlaws, Marty Robins and Tom Jones in Country, Rock, Western and swinging 60's style, take your pick and listen to the message and sing with them as I do.

There is a lot hidden in the concept of a cowboy than just a man in a dusty worn leather outfit ridding a pony rounding up cattle in huge Texas ranches; 

I enjoy all versions but enjoy the highly expressive dual performance by Willie & Johnny most.

The song message is beautifully crafted within an iconic cultural frame of mind and way of life but then transcends cultural boundaries and exposes man's follies  chasing his worldly demons for ever up in the sky without any intervention form the divine.

The song doesn't just entertain you it also questions and awakens you.

I'm not into boxing I play classic guitar. 

Cheers & enjoy

Rob are you really the Robert Plant from Led Zeplin Group?

If so I'm wondering what interests you to join an online forum for the Oil & Gas professionals? 

So it appears the Stairway to Heaven also leads back to the Earth? though astrophysics and cosmology teaches us all heavenly bodies from small asteroids to infinite parallel universes are all in animated suspension in the endless space.

Cheers,   

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Pretty sure this thread will have taken a strange turn when I check on it tomorrow.

[Marcin2 + 724]

Every step in China - US conflict is directed by economic interdependencies and relative fragility of each country.

I am repeating this thousand times but few people understand how dangerous for the United States and EU is current foreign policy of Donald Trump. I know Trump just wanted to differentiate himself, win election and re-election, noble cause, but he started the powers that he does not comprehend.

We are not in a kindergarten where Micky just took Lizzy's ball, she is crying, but he understood he did wrong, so returned the ball, and they now happily play together again

Due to Trump policies all the power of the Chinese state was mobilized to get rid of all the Chinese reliance on the United States. That is why they want to be completely self-sufficient in every crucial technology and product. Remember it is dictatorship and they can throw as many resources as they wish at this task and citizens cannot complain cause their social score would be harmed.

Nothing will stop them until they finish.

After and only after they will finish they would have full strategic versatility against the United States.

And at this moment it would be better if the United States also get rid of all reliance on China.

Imagine it is year 2030, and China finished their task of self-sufficiency. They could gradually ban all the activities of American companies in China, they would say that it is due to IP theft by Americans. They could start with small 20% excise duty on every domestic or export activities of US companies. And control over all crucial technologies and manufacturing is like reserve currency so they would probably also de-dollarize.

When Trump started technology and trade war in 2018, I hope he understood that the scenario described above is logical consequence of his actions.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

8 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Every step in China - US conflict is directed by economic interdependencies and relative fragility of each country.

 

I am repeating this thousand times but few people understand how dangerous for the United States and EU is current foreign policy of Donald Trump. I know Trump just wanted to differentiate himself, win election and re-election, noble cause, but he started the powers that he does not comprehend.

 

We are not in a kindergarten where Micky just took Lizzy's ball, she is crying, but he understood he did wrong, so returned the ball, and they now happily play together again

 

Due to Trump policies all the power of the Chinese state was mobilized to get rid of all the Chinese reliance on the United States. That is why they want to be completely self-sufficient in every crucial technology and product. Remember it is dictatorship and they can throw as many resources as they wish at this task and citizens cannot complain cause their social score would be harmed.

 

Nothing will stop them until they finish.

 

After and only after they will finish they would have full strategic versatility against the United States.

 

And at this moment it would be better if the United States also get rid of all reliance on China.

 

Imagine it is year 2030, and China finished their task of self-sufficiency. They could gradually ban all the activities of American companies in China, they would say that it is due to IP theft by Americans. They could start with small 20% excise duty on every domestic or export activities of US companies. And control over all crucial technologies and manufacturing is like reserve currency so they would probably also de-dollarize.

 

When Trump started technology and trade war in 2018, I hope he understood that the scenario described above is logical consequence of his actions.

 

You make valid points, I do believe your are playing the wrong card game however.

Take a look around this forum it is a oil forum. There is s crisis of market failure due strictly demand destruction...Two things in marketing that are hard to overcome...ignorance&poverty. I will now add no demand...and that is defeaning.

If the US cutoff its demand for goods from China the results would be the same deafening.

With that being said you may ask yourself which country has a built in demand. Which country has the infrastructure in place to supply this demand..

Answer that question and you will have a answer to everything. Tech will suffer the greatly until this gets sorted out.

Speaking of tech has anyone been watching Netflix stock as of late? It seems that is all most US citizens can afford as of late...and this trend is just beginning.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

36 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Every step in China - US conflict is directed by economic interdependencies and relative fragility of each country.

 

I am repeating this thousand times but few people understand how dangerous for the United States and EU is current foreign policy of Donald Trump. I know Trump just wanted to differentiate himself, win election and re-election, noble cause, but he started the powers that he does not comprehend.

 

We are not in a kindergarten where Micky just took Lizzy's ball, she is crying, but he understood he did wrong, so returned the ball, and they now happily play together again

 

Due to Trump policies all the power of the Chinese state was mobilized to get rid of all the Chinese reliance on the United States. That is why they want to be completely self-sufficient in every crucial technology and product. Remember it is dictatorship and they can throw as many resources as they wish at this task and citizens cannot complain cause their social score would be harmed.

 

Nothing will stop them until they finish.

 

After and only after they will finish they would have full strategic versatility against the United States.

 

And at this moment it would be better if the United States also get rid of all reliance on China.

 

Imagine it is year 2030, and China finished their task of self-sufficiency. They could gradually ban all the activities of American companies in China, they would say that it is due to IP theft by Americans. They could start with small 20% excise duty on every domestic or export activities of US companies. And control over all crucial technologies and manufacturing is like reserve currency so they would probably also de-dollarize.

 

When Trump started technology and trade war in 2018, I hope he understood that the scenario described above is logical consequence of his actions.

 

You are right about what they are intending to do. I am not doubting that given subjugation of enough of their riches they might actually get there. But they are also facing the US and EU, both in their own respective regions, trying to dissociated from China to fill the holes of their supply chains. That means that China will eventually have less access to everything, not just limits on access to US technology. 

The decoupling is damaging and bad for everyone, but the Chinese way has the historical distinction of making things worthless. Which I explained multiple times before. By pilfering  high tech into commodity businesses it had routinely managed to help world consumers pay as little as the value of materials for the product. Thus producing little advantage to their own people. So while I have no doubt that they will make the effort and make headway, I also have no doubt that they will be generations of technology behind by the time they get there. That is in part because they have announced it so loudly and started up so aggressively, so that all tech companies know exactly what to let them steal so that they end up behind. They would be far better off developing things on their own, but have little experience doing so.

I don't expect that they have the resources nor the will to deprive their people for the long stretch that it will take.   It is just too big a project. 

 

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

I just had to follow @0R0 scenario even if it was surreal, to prove that global trade with or without the benevolent or sinister US Navy (whether you are NATO or China), would look just the same, cause no state actor would ever shoot at merchant marine Chinese or American, cause it leads fast to MAD scenario. It never happened in Cold War, it would not happen in the future.

 

This is not a surreal scenario. The US did not keep those old boats going and replacing them with up to date versions for nothing. If everything were as you suggest, a direct escalation to MAD, then they would never have had a purpose. Then the US could have gotten its way around the globe through threats of nuclear war so much more cheaply.  

The historical reality did not have nukes hovering overhead, but nobody will be contemplating nukes as these imperial structures will not actually involve much in the way of hot warfare upfront as the prior version of them had. But even so. Merchant trade will be attacked if it isn't protected. Perhaps a nuke country's flag on top of a ship may prevent an attack initially, but once a few demonstrations are conducted, the flag on the mast will only matter if the country can retaliate on a small scale in the third party countries involved. The nuclear retaliation will be off the table for everyone all the time. It is solely preserved for "end times" conditions. 

You are also missing the point that these would hardly be Chinese flagged ships heading to China that are targeted to start, at least not till the pattern is established. The colonization process will not be by conquest - at least not for the most part and not initially, but by enforcement of a protection racket to sign up a country into an imperial group. It is only later on when most of the world is "sown up" into new empires that the warfare between them might start up. In context of multiplicities of small skirmishes, the "war" would seem just business as usual. 

 

As to the de-dolarization, as Jim Rickards points out, financial crises arising out of debt deflation can be instantaneously solved with a sufficient uprating of the gold price with a coordinated (or single sided) central bank bid for gold to restore a balance of money supply to debt. Without an active support to EM financial markets to unclog them, as the G20 focus entirely on their own problems with little or no attention to them, it may happen even without a conscious G20 central bank decision. Perhaps the actions taken via commercial banks will do it. But that is a costly mechanism and is not buying the West any friends. It is not about debt relief but iliquidity among all the EM financial systems and a lack of access to currency swaps with mainly the US and EMU. 

The US - at least with Trump, is working out a gold standard, but not one for the IMF, as it intends to exit the US from the burden of the dollar system. Not take up another burden like a dollar standard with a gold burden on top of it. I don't have the details. But on both the Chinese side and Trump's side, a gold standard seems to be preferred. A Yuan standard, I am sure, is not what the Chinese would want as it would put on them the same kind of burden the dollar had on the US, opening them up to a rapid hollowing out of the core industries they had worked three decades to build. . 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

I just wanted to add that nothing is stopping EU and others from assembling a trade security arrangement. But there has not been the slightest move in that direction. They all just want it from the US for free. 

[Rob Plant + 2,600]

9 hours ago, M_Ali said:

Rob are you really the Robert Plant from Led Zeplin Group?

If so I'm wondering what interests you to join an online forum for the Oil & Gas professionals? 

So it appears the Stairway to Heaven also leads back to the Earth? though astrophysics and cosmology teaches us all heavenly bodies from small asteroids to infinite parallel universes are all in animated suspension in the endless space.

Cheers,   

Haha no I’m not, although we are from the same town. I was just joking but it is my real name. I do get fan mail from desperate American ladies from time to time😂

Are you into astrophysics and cosmology?

i find these subjects very interesting although I’m probably too stupid to understand a lot of it

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

I honestly believe that this backlash against China will continue to grow internationally, even if/when the COVID-19 issue is resolved.

When the arrogance of a country’s leadership leads to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in other countries, there is no forgiveness possible, or forthcoming.

China has already restarted their industries, but this is simply ‘showboating’ if you suddenly have no external market to sell your wares.

The sad thing is that the Chinese people will ultimately pay the price for the virus, the cover up, and the arrogance of the CCP.

(Before M_Ali screams all-American racism again, I am a Yank who happens to be married to a Chinese girl (Hokkien). I kinda like her, not so much the CCP. Furthermore, I have lived in Asia for the past 17 years).

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

18 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Interesting development..why start something at a time like this?...Perhaps to gauge just how much discourse there really is towards the CCP.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-And-Malaysia-Clash-In-Highly-Disputed-South-China-Sea.html

That ^^^ article is worth showing here:

China And Malaysia Clash In Highly Disputed South China Sea

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 17, 2020, 1:30 PM CDT

Tensions are rising in the disputed South China Sea, where a Chinese survey vessel has been tagging an exploration ship which Malaysia’s state oil firm Petronas is operating in the area, security sources in the region told Reuters on Friday.

The long-running dispute in the South China Sea involves territorial claims by China as well as Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei, and Malaysia. China has territorial claims to about 90 percent of the South China Sea, which has put it at odds with its neighbors. 

The Chinese research and survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 8 was close to Malaysian waters, and at one point on Friday, the Chinese ship was flanked by Chinese ships of the coast guard and maritime militia, according to Reuters’ sources. The Haiyang Dizhi 8 ship was close to the West Capella exploration vessel operated by Petronas.

The same Chinese ship was spotted off Vietnam’s waters earlier this week, and moving closer to Malaysia, according to ship-tracking data cited by Reuters on Thursday.

At the end of last year, the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers sealed an agreement for the two countries to pursue joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. The talks between the two countries on the South China Sea’s oil and gas potential and how to exploit it had been going on for years. An agreement has proved challenging to reach, however, mostly because of China’s territorial claims to the basin, which cover nearly the entirety of it.

But tensions in the South China Sea have increased in recent weeks. 

Last week, the U.S. State Department said, commenting on reports that China had sunk a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the South China Sea:

“We call on the PRC to remain focused on supporting international efforts to combat the global pandemic, and to stop exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other states to expand its unlawful claims in the South China Sea.” 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 4/12/2020 at 3:21 PM, Ward Smith said:

First watch this video

 

Every Covid-19 Commercial is Exactly the Same

Corporate Covid-19 response videos are eerily similar.

*Cue somber piano music*

When a company or brand releases a Coronavirus Response ad, they might tell you that we're living in "uncertain times", but that "we're here for you". 

They may say their top priority is "people" and "families" by bringing their services to the "comfort and safety of your home".

And don't forget: "we're all in this together!" #together

*Somber music speeds up*

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

10 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

Every Covid-19 Commercial is Exactly the Same

Corporate Covid-19 response videos are eerily similar.

*Cue somber piano music*

When a company or brand releases a Coronavirus Response ad, they might tell you that we're living in "uncertain times", but that "we're here for you". 

They may say their top priority is "people" and "families" by bringing their services to the "comfort and safety of your home".

And don't forget: "we're all in this together!" #together

*Somber music speeds up*

 

 

Makes me want to throw up.  Ugh...

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Haha no I’m not, although we are from the same town. I was just joking but it is my real name. I do get fan mail from desperate American ladies from time to time😂

Are you into astrophysics and cosmology?

i find these subjects very interesting although I’m probably too stupid to understand a lot of it

 

Freakin’ hippie!!!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Pretty sure this thread will have taken a strange turn when I check on it tomorrow.

And my profile picture seems to have changed.  Weird.