Wood Mac Joins Lithium, Cobalt Bears

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Wood mac has joined Morgan Stanley in forecasting a lithium and cobalt oversupply beginning as early as next year. Miners must be adding production as fast as shale drillers.

[TraderTate + 186]

I get it, but timing is the key here. There might be a bit of oversupply next year, but not soon after that there's going to be a major supply gap. Next year, demand isn't going to see the big spike. It's what comes after that we don't have the supply for. People are missing the bigger picture here. 

[llessure + 3]

Having the resource is not the equivalent of producing and selling the resource.  Most of the world's lithium is years from commercial viability.

There will be a shortage before there is a surplus.

[dowmike + 37]

Exactly. That's where the supply picture gets so wonderfully tight. And there are tons of juniors on this playing field. They don't have enough money and tech to get this out of the ground in time. There are only a couple who are going to make it. LIX maybe ... 

[TomTom + 183]

Just read that China is now buying up a big chunk of Glencore's total cobalt supply... they probably wouldn't do that if the supply picture wasn't that tight: https://www.wsj.com/articles/glencores-cobalt-sale-helps-chinas-drive-to-build-electric-vehicles-1521060016

[TomTom + 183]

On 3/23/2018 at 10:09 AM, llessure said:

Having the resource is not the equivalent of producing and selling the resource.  Most of the world's lithium is years from commercial viability.

There will be a shortage before there is a surplus.

That's the reality indeed... most 'advanced' exploration products need another couple of years before they can actually produce high grade lithium carbonate