Saudi Arabia cuts May oil prices to Asia, raises US rate after Opec+ deal

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Why on earth is the absolute religious dictorship which owns Saudi Aramco still considered our 'ally' ?

The justification given for Saudi Arabia lowering oil prices to Asia is reduced demand due to Coronavirus.

Apparently that is not the case for the U.S.

< eye roll >

Saudi Arabia cuts May oil prices to Asia, raises US rate after Opec+ deal

Saudi Arabia has announced its official crude pricing (OSP) for May, selling oil more cheaply to Asia while keeping prices flat for Europe and raising them for the United States, after Opec and its allies agreed the biggest output cut deal in history.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has set the May price for its Arab light crude oil to Asia at a discount of US$7.3 to the Oman/Dubai average, down US$4.2 a barrel from April, according to a document seen by Reuters on Monday.

The cut to Asia was in line with market expectations.

According to a Reuters survey, Asian refiners have called on Saudi Arabia to slash its crude OSPs for a third straight month in May after Middle East benchmarks and refining margins dropped amid ample supplies and lower demand due to the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, the firm has raised the May OSP of its Arab light crude oil to the United States to a discount of US$0.75 per barrel versus the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI), up US$3 a barrel from April, according to the document.

Aramco left its OSP for Arab light crude oil to Northwestern Europe unchanged from April at a discount of US$10.25 per barrel to ICE Brent.

The cut in prices to Asia reflect weak demand, while OSPs to Europe and the United States reflect oil market fundamentals and the global supply cut pact, an industry source familiar with the pricing process told Reuters.  ...

 

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Why on earth is the absolute religious dictorship which owns Saudi Aramco still considered our 'ally' ?

The justification given for Saudi Arabia lowering oil prices to Asia is reduced demand due to Coronavirus.

Apparently that is not the case for the U.S.

< eye roll >

Saudi Arabia cuts May oil prices to Asia, raises US rate after Opec+ deal

Saudi Arabia has announced its official crude pricing (OSP) for May, selling oil more cheaply to Asia while keeping prices flat for Europe and raising them for the United States, after Opec and its allies agreed the biggest output cut deal in history.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has set the May price for its Arab light crude oil to Asia at a discount of US$7.3 to the Oman/Dubai average, down US$4.2 a barrel from April, according to a document seen by Reuters on Monday.

The cut to Asia was in line with market expectations.

According to a Reuters survey, Asian refiners have called on Saudi Arabia to slash its crude OSPs for a third straight month in May after Middle East benchmarks and refining margins dropped amid ample supplies and lower demand due to the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, the firm has raised the May OSP of its Arab light crude oil to the United States to a discount of US$0.75 per barrel versus the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI), up US$3 a barrel from April, according to the document.

Aramco left its OSP for Arab light crude oil to Northwestern Europe unchanged from April at a discount of US$10.25 per barrel to ICE Brent.

The cut in prices to Asia reflect weak demand, while OSPs to Europe and the United States reflect oil market fundamentals and the global supply cut pact, an industry source familiar with the pricing process told Reuters.  ...

 

Good call 

. .  .   .  .   and this comes as a surprise to many so called oil analysts ?

Saudi says of the 9.7 mm bbls HISTORIC CUT they are cutting 4mm bbls.  That's funny.  Before the crash Saudis were producing 9.8 mm/day.  They then increased production 2.5 mm in anticipation of this cut.   In reality they cut only 1.5 mm/day, 9.8  down to 8.3. That's if they actually make the cuts.

They did the exact same con after the Oct 2018 crash.  

Goldman oil did an analysis and determined the actual cut from OPEC+   2020 Q1 production is only 4.3 mm not 9.7 mm.  

Why do analyst foolishly continue to support their con game. 

The only workable solution for the U.S.  is to cut off both  the imports of crude and refined  petroleum products.  Or in the alternative put a 25% tax on them.  This might hurt the super majors a little, but this is not about them . It's about saving up to 2 million oil jobs in the shale basins.

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2020 by BLA

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Well, I do believe the Saudis have already violated the spirit of the agreement--in less than 24 hours. This is a record, even for them. 

This is not all bad. If that particular factoid has dawned on me, it has surely caused the collective blood pressure of the Trump administration to skyrocket. This is a jab in the eye with a sharp stick, a giddy response by MbS, who always seems to need to play from a stacked deck.

Mr. Trump's reaction? He may just issue that tariff!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

18 minutes ago, BLA said:

and this comes as a surprise to you ?

It was a rhetorical question.  I have often expressed my disdain for absolute religious dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Get 'em Donald!  Pull the fleet away.  Retroactively raise the price of military hardware, munitions and forces and send MBS the bill.  And keep sending it every week, week after week.

[BLA + 1,666]

21 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

It was a rhetorical question.  I have often expressed my disdain for absolute religious dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Sorry, my bad. I know you understand this.  Your post demonstrates that.  I was directing that comment at the general public and some that call themselves oil analyst .  Sorry.

I'll try to change the wording . 

I saw a U.S.Senator from the oil state  of Alaska on TV this morning.  He was praising Saudis for cutting 4mm bbls.  You think he would know better being oil is the second largest industry in his state after commercial fishing. .  

Edited April 14, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

22 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Well, I do believe the Saudis have already violated the spirit of the agreement--in less than 24 hours. This is a record, even for them. 

This is not all bad. If that particular factoid has dawned on me, it has surely caused the collective blood pressure of the Trump administration to skyrocket. This is a jab in the eye with a sharp stick, a giddy response by MbS, who always seems to need to play from a stacked deck.

Mr. Trump's reaction? He may just issue that tariff!

I would like to think so, but he really sounds reluctant.  I doubt we'll see tariffs.  The Chevron's and Exxon's, etc don't want it. 

 I really believe he thinks he can orchestrate a ME peace deal if he gets a second term.  He needs Saudi Arabia even for an outside chance.

I say no chance , but I'm not him. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by BLA

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

9 minutes ago, BLA said:

I saw a U.S. Senator from the oil state on TV this morning.  He was praising Saudis for cutting 4mm bbls.  You think he would know better .  

Don't mind me, I'll just be over here in the corner, banging my head against the wall.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

7 minutes ago, BLA said:

I really believe he thinks he can orchestrate a ME peace deal if he gets a second term.  He needs Saudi Arabia .

A Middle East Peace Accord? Oh, that was done long before you were born: there's Menachem Begin on one side of Jimmy Carter and Anwar Sadat on the other, grinning like banshees over their accomplishment. It was right before Mr. Sadat was assassinated. 

Every president since Abraham Lincoln has tried to broker a Middle Eastern accord. They have all worked out about the same as Mr. Carter's. 

😂

[Gregory Purcell + 94]

About five years MBS the clown prince, started a war in Yemen, he promised it would only take a few weeks to win, he is losing that war, his allies are leaving and the war has costed hundreds of billions, also the ARAMCO  IPO was a flop, Saudi Arabia's seconded biggest source of income is tourism, but this years pilgrimage has been canceled because of the coronavirus,  also the coronavirus is reportedly running amok in Saudi Arabia.    

So when Russia said let's just let the oil prices fall, the clown prince predictable freaked out, because his hold on power is is not secure, and the House of Saud is very close to collapse.   

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Well, at least Saddam Hussein is not around any more, to go fomenting trouble, including doing a few invasions and setting a thousand oil wells on fire, just for spite.  I recall the approach there was to shoot his malignant, raping sons dead and then hang him at midnight.  Seems to have worked out just fine. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

Any idea how the Argus sour crude prices against Brent? I was wondering if that is the same discount they are offering in China. Having a small discount for the US vs. cheaper for China, would be in line with the agreement. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Help me with my math here. Aramco can maybe deliver 900k bbls per day to the entire US. That assumes they fill Motiva, which can output 600k bbls/day (but has nowhere to ship that product) and can deliver the other 300k to California via the East route over the Pacific (about 40 days travel). They don't own refineries in California to my knowledge like they own Motiva. So lowest prices win, which just might be Russian? 

[Nihad Mitnjek + 2]

4 hours ago, Gregory Purcell said:

Environ cinq ans MBS, le prince clown, a commencé une guerre au Yémen, il a promis que cela ne prendrait que quelques semaines pour gagner, il perd cette guerre, ses alliés partent et la guerre a coûté des centaines de milliards, aussi l'IPO ARAMCO était un flop, la deuxième source de revenus de l'Arabie saoudite est le tourisme, mais cette année, le pèlerinage a été annulé en raison du coronavirus, également le coronavirus serait en train de se déchaîner en Arabie saoudite.    

Alors, quand la Russie a dit de laisser les prix du pétrole baisser, le prince clown prévisible a paniqué, car son emprise sur le pouvoir n'est pas sûre, et la maison des Saoud est très proche de s'effondrer.   

Ok for Yemen. But what is the Western coalition in Afghanistan like after 19 years ?

KSA Coronavirus is most common among migrant workers who live in crowded conditions. Saudi Arabia is one of the first countries after China to have taken very strong measures (you can check the dates) by closing the biggest cities of the country very early. So this country will certainly be less affected than the overwhelming majority of countries.

KSA and MBS won their bet and they got what they were looking for. Be a good player and recognize it.

Some are waking up and now understand that the KSA is a sovereign country that defends its interests. It's time to stop believing that the Americans or any country can dictate the behavior of a country like Saudi Arabia. It never existed with the KSA or any country that the US did not occupy militarily. The two countries have mutual interests and it's for this reason that they work together on a certain number of points. But it's not because there is an imbalance of forces that one controls the other.

US weapons are not gifts but purchases for Saudi Arabia. In general, the KSA is for the USA is a good commercial partner because of the large purchase contracts. It's simple, the KSA can look elsewhere (what Trump understood).

As for the protection of the USA, we must return to the real world. KSA is the size of a continent. If the 3000 American soldiers arrived since can protect a country the size of a continent, why USA cannot protect Iraq or even Afghanistan with hundreds of thousands of soldiers ?

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Nihad Mitnjek said:

As for the protection of the USA, we must return to the real world. KSA is the size of a continent. If the 3000 American soldiers arrived since can protect a country the size of a continent, why USA cannot protect Iraq or even Afghanistan with hundreds of thousands of soldiers ?

Those are civil wars. You protect those that aren't shooting at you at the moment. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

12 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Why on earth is the absolute religious dictorship which owns Saudi Aramco still considered our 'ally' ?

The justification given for Saudi Arabia lowering oil prices to Asia is reduced demand due to Coronavirus.

Apparently that is not the case for the U.S.

< eye roll >

Saudi Arabia cuts May oil prices to Asia, raises US rate after Opec+ deal

Saudi Arabia has announced its official crude pricing (OSP) for May, selling oil more cheaply to Asia while keeping prices flat for Europe and raising them for the United States, after Opec and its allies agreed the biggest output cut deal in history.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has set the May price for its Arab light crude oil to Asia at a discount of US$7.3 to the Oman/Dubai average, down US$4.2 a barrel from April, according to a document seen by Reuters on Monday.

The cut to Asia was in line with market expectations.

According to a Reuters survey, Asian refiners have called on Saudi Arabia to slash its crude OSPs for a third straight month in May after Middle East benchmarks and refining margins dropped amid ample supplies and lower demand due to the coronavirus.

Meanwhile, the firm has raised the May OSP of its Arab light crude oil to the United States to a discount of US$0.75 per barrel versus the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI), up US$3 a barrel from April, according to the document.

Aramco left its OSP for Arab light crude oil to Northwestern Europe unchanged from April at a discount of US$10.25 per barrel to ICE Brent.

The cut in prices to Asia reflect weak demand, while OSPs to Europe and the United States reflect oil market fundamentals and the global supply cut pact, an industry source familiar with the pricing process told Reuters.  ...

 

Tariffs on the horizon?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay, stop selling KSA arms, equipment and spares for both and let them buy from Russia or China, their choice.

[Nihad Mitnjek + 2]

4 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Ce sont des guerres civiles. Vous protégez ceux qui ne vous tirent pas dessus pour le moment. 

And after 19 years of war with all the Western powers and armaments (USA + France + RU + Australia + Germany + Spain + Italy + etc), the Taliban were defeated?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Nihad Mitnjek said:

And after 19 years of war with all the Western powers and armaments (USA + France + RU + Australia + Germany + Spain + Italy + etc), the Taliban were defeated?

Why?  Do you know where some more are?  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, Nihad Mitnjek said:

And after 19 years of war with all the Western powers and armaments (USA + France + RU + Australia + Germany + Spain + Italy + etc), the Taliban were defeated?

Did it ever occur to you that we might need a playground to keep our top notch fighting forces trained and busy, within view of a few bullies?

[Nihad Mitnjek + 2]

Il y a 22 minutes, Dan Warnick a déclaré:

Pourquoi? Savez-vous où il en reste?  

Les talibans ont gagné la guerre (pas la paix). Les pays occidentaux l'ont compris et organisent leur départ. 

Vous voulez essayer en Arabie Saoudite et avec des hommes sur le terrain. Bonne chance !

Il y a 2 heures, Douglas Buckland a déclaré:

D'accord, arrêtez de vendre des armes, de l'équipement et des pièces de rechange à la KSA pour les deux et laissez-les acheter en Russie ou en Chine, leur choix.

Ksa appreciates its commercial relations with the United States. He gets the best products and he gratifies his old partner with money and jobs. These are win-win relationships. The European, Russian and Chinese military industries would like to be able to count on such a client.

KSA has no desire to join Russia or the Chinese (although they have good relations with these two states) but it will work more with these countries if they can no longer count on the USA. Symbolically, economically, militarily, it's a great catch for states that have dreams of superpower.

The KSA has contractual and extra-contractual levers. We could see it with the oil market.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Well, KSA is treating their ‘ally’ extremely poorly recently.

The US also has “contractual and extra-contractual levers” which she could employ as well.

....or, she could get fed up with the whole shit-show and start selling Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Yemenis. 

[Nihad Mitnjek + 2]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Eh bien, la KSA traite son «allié» extrêmement mal récemment.

Les États-Unis disposent également de «leviers contractuels et extracontractuels» qu'elle pourrait également utiliser.

... ou, elle pourrait en avoir assez de tout ce show de merde et commencer à vendre des missiles de croisière Tomahawk aux Yéménites. 

If the Houtis could buy weapons (they cannot afford it), they would also use them against the Americans. They hate Americans more than the Saudis (who are agents of the Americans for them). In general, all the armed groups or regimes that the Saudis confront have no sympathy for the Americans.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

3 minutes ago, Nihad Mitnjek said:

If the Houtis could buy weapons (they cannot afford it), they would also use them against the Americans. They hate Americans more than the Saudis (who are agents of the Americans for them). In general, all the armed groups or regimes that the Saudis confront have no sympathy for the Americans.

Shit, guess we’ll have to fire those Tomahawks ourselves then...

[Gregory Purcell + 94]

4 hours ago, Nihad Mitnjek said:

And after 19 years of war with all the Western powers and armaments (USA + France + RU + Australia + Germany + Spain + Italy + etc), the Taliban were defeated?

We can't win the war in Afghanistan because we never had realistic  clear objectives, our political leadership never could say, what winning would look like.  Meanwhile the Taliban knows exactly what winning looks like.  15 years ago a Taliban commander said in an interview "Every American soldier has a fancy clock on his wrist, but time is our main weapon, time is on our side"