just heard a stat: U.S. GASOLINE CONSUMPTION DOWN 60% !

[BLA + 1,666]

Hopefully this is temporary.  It makes you realize what has happened to the U.S. economy, as well as the economy of the entire world .

The economy of the world is basically closed .

I don't think most understand the extent of the damage being done. Some temporary, but some permanent .

I don't think the stock market reflects reality and could test lower levels.  

The world needs to get back to work. The bureacratic, lifer government beltway doctors and scientist should be consulted but our elected leaders need to make the decisions

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by BLA
Look

[wrs + 893]

I have come to the conclusion that this is intended to destroy oil and the petrodollar so that he world can move on with Greta in charge.

In the meantime I will be out driving my 8mpg 800hp car and burning up as much cheap 93 octane as possible.

Edited April 16, 2020 by wrs

[UNC12345 + 171]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Hopefully this is temporary.  It makes you realize what has happened to the U.S. economy, as well as the economy of the entire world .

The economy of the world is basically closed .

I don't think most understand the extent of the damage being done. Some temporary, but some permanent .

I don't think the stock market reflects reality and could test lower levels.  

The world needs to get back to work. The bureacratic, lifer government beltway doctors and scientist should be consulted but our elected leaders need to make the decisions

 

 

 

I agree and think the stock market, like before this crisis, is another bubble (smaller maybe) waiting to burst once we get back and realize it's worse than we thought.I have not filled up either vehicle in a month!

[BLA + 1,666]

44 minutes ago, UNC12345 said:

I agree and think the stock market, like before this crisis, is another bubble (smaller maybe) waiting to burst once we get back and realize it's worse than we thought.I have not filled up either vehicle in a month!

I haven't bought gasoline once over the last month. 

60% might be low

Edited April 16, 2020 by BLA

[wrs + 893]

3 minutes ago, BLA said:

I haven't bought gasoline once

60% might be low

I have filled the 8mpg car up three times and the RR only once.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

If it is down by 60%, that implies that 40% of pre-virus levels are still being consumed, assuming no stockpiling by either motorists or retailers.  That strikes me as a high number, for gasoline.  I could see it for diesel, but gasoline?  Nobody is driving.  40% strikes me as quite high.  I would have thought the consumption today would be at or below 10%. 

You have to wonder what the number is for jet-fuel.  

Edited April 16, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Hopefully this is temporary.  It makes you realize what has happened to the U.S. economy, as well as the economy of the entire world .

The economy of the world is basically closed .

I don't think most understand the extent of the damage being done. Some temporary, but some permanent .

I don't think the stock market reflects reality and could test lower levels.  

The world needs to get back to work. The bureacratic, lifer government beltway doctors and scientist should be consulted but our elected leaders need to make the decisions.

No the average person is obsessed with the virus and hasn't thought about what comes next which sure looks pretty catastrophic to me.

When things start to open I can't imagine that many of the businesses will need all their staff and there are going to be a lot of people out of work and probably many businesses won't survive either.

 

[BillKidd + 139]

Whether warranted or not is up for debate but I can't see how this can be anything less than the big reset... a catastrophic economic depression. I'm thinking it will take years to play out but will continually get worse. Until it gets better.

[BLA + 1,666]

15 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

If it is down by 60%, that implies tht 40% of ore-virus levels are still being consumed, assuming no stockpiling by either motorists or retailers.  That strikes me as a highnumber, for gasoline.  I could see it for diesel, but gasoline?  Nobody is driving.  40% strikes me as quite high.  I would have thought the consumption today would be at or below 10%. 

You have to wonder what the number is for jet-fuel.  

I agree.  

They didn't say but that must have been for March.  

April has to be down 90%

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

The top three States that are facing economic oblivion are:

Maine

Las Vegas

Vermont

They are all tourist-driven economies, and all are poor, rural States.  Don't be fooled by the glitz of Las Vegas; the rest of the State is quite poor, and very sparse.  Drive along the Interstate-80 on the top part of the State and you can see the poverty.  

Rural Maine is dependent on wood  (for pulp), fishing, and tourists.  The pulp industry has largely collapsed, driven by the abandonment of newsprint.  In fishing, the lobster have been doing OK, but now the Chinese market has vanished, with the Chinese buying their lobster and crab from Canada in response to the tariff conflicts.  The tourist industry, comprising hotels, food, and boat rentals, has collapsed, with the despised Bostoners  (referred to as "Massholes" for their driving habits) all gone.   How does a place like that ever recover?  Answer:  it does not, and so is headed for a Portugal-style economic result.  

Vermont's problem is that it has no industry.  You have these small retail operations, maybe employing fove or six, but they have no financial cushion, so once the working capital is gone, then absent some kind of bail-out, those places will close.  It is likely to end up not far from subsistence agriculture.  Recovery?  Not likely. 

The rest of the USA will do better, but it is not going to be a bed of roses.  Places like Milwaukee are going to stay downtrodden for a long time. And you all have the Chinese to thank for this huge mess.  From now on, buy American.  Forget those Chinese guys. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

47 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

If it is down by 60%, that implies tht 40% of ore-virus levels are still being consumed, assuming no stockpiling by either motorists or retailers.  That strikes me as a highnumber, for gasoline.  I could see it for diesel, but gasoline?  Nobody is driving.  40% strikes me as quite high.  I would have thought the consumption today would be at or below 10%. 

You have to wonder what the number is for jet-fuel.  

Reading the article below, which, to me, seems to best reflect the realities of commercial aviation at this time, puts the decrease in consumption at somewhere between 60 to 75% (I think 70% is an accurate number).  The article gives insight from organizations whose job it is to forecast such things accurately.

Jet fuel demand to remain low for years as airlines buckle up for tough ride

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Just now, Dan Warnick said:

Reading the article below, which, to me, seems to best reflect the realities of commercial aviation at this time, puts the decrease in consumption at somewhere between 60 to 75% (I think 70% is an accurate number).  The article gives insight from organizations whose job it is to forecast such things accurately.

Jet fuel demand to remain low for years as airlines buckle up for tough ride

 

Well, if the fuel demand is low then those airliner leasing companies are in for a tough ride.  Lots of idled aircraft, so there willbe lots of turn-ins. And then what?  

It starts to look like the picture for the A-380 double-deckers, now getting turned in.  One leasing company, swamped by returns, is thinking in terms of starting their own airline, nothing else to do with those planes.  At a sticker price of $400 million apiece, there is a lot of coin tied up in that aluminum.  Ouch. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

21 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The top three States that are facing economic oblivion are:

Maine

Las Vegas

Vermont

They are all tourist-driven economies, and all are poor, rural States.  Don't be fooled by the glitz of Las Vegas; the rest of the State is quite poor, and very sparse.  Drive along the Interstate-80 on the top part of the State and you can see the poverty.  

Rural Maine is dependent on wood  (for pulp), fishing, and tourists.  The pulp industry has largely collapsed, driven by the abandonment of newsprint.  In fishing, the lobster have been doing OK, but now the Chinese market has vanished, with the Chinese buying their lobster and crab from Canada in response to the tariff conflicts.  The tourist industry, comprising hotels, food, and boat rentals, has collapsed, with the despised Bostoners  (referred to as "Massholes" for their driving habits) all gone.   How does a place like that ever recover?  Answer:  it does not, and so is headed for a Portugal-style economic result.  

Vermont's problem is that it has no industry.  You have these small retail operations, maybe employing fove or six, but they have no financial cushion, so once the working capital is gone, then absent some kind of bail-out, those places will close.  It is likely to end up not far from subsistence agriculture.  Recovery?  Not likely. 

The rest of the USA will do better, but it is not going to be a bed of roses.  Places like Milwaukee are going to stay downtrodden for a long time. And you all have the Chinese to thank for this huge mess.  From now on, buy American.  Forget those Chinese guys. 

Yes that time has come, it has been right in front of face for years and years...

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/490528-china-must-close-down-wet-markets-now

OHH AND THEN THIS LITTLE NUGGET>>>100000 die in the 60's...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

[Rob Kramer + 696]

People have lowered driving levels but there still on the roads at least in Ontario.  People literally have nothing to do there not working and everything is closed . People getting tickets for walking through public parks. There driving for fun on Employment Insurance money. And hitting up the local drive troughs. I see oil prices exploding after this like bad ! 2022 200$ oil then inflation caused recession. All because we shut everything down all at once. Then were forced to green and communism . Haha sounds like end times !

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

People have lowered driving levels but there still on the roads at least in Ontario.  People literally have nothing to do there not working and everything is closed . People getting tickets for walking through public parks. There driving for fun on Employment Insurance money. And hitting up the local drive troughs. I see oil prices exploding after this like bad ! 2022 200$ oil then inflation caused recession. All because we shut everything down all at once. Then were forced to green and communism . Haha sounds like end times !

Comrade, why U no enjoy this free trial of Socialism?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

And to add to that because it's not a lockdown all my neighbors are always out or having people over. It's either got to be law NO SOCIAL LIFE or let people make their own choices and dont RUIN the economy! I dont see how everyone not working is stopping spread if they all hangout . If it's still spreads it's not working so the only thing that is happening is economic damage! I'm  a little tired of being one that takes laws and recommendations seriously.  Why have them . Like the highway 100kph ... if you tried to go 100 you'll get rear ended! Same with self quarantine.  Noone is doing it! 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

5 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Comrade, why U no enjoy this free trial of Socialism?

Exactly lol ... because they put concrete barriers infront of the boat launch! They want all emergency services available for covid . Fire ban and all meanwhile it snows here yesterday. 

[Rob Kramer + 696]

14 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Comrade, why U no enjoy this free trial of Socialism?

TOM trials are A)optional and B) temporary. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

4 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

TOM trials are A)optional and B) temporary. 

Tom, in the USA "trials" are no longer treated as an optional extra, those Department of Justice  guys have abolished them in favor of parking your ass in Guantanamo, like forever, so you can enjoy breakfast with the muhajeddin!

As to your current experiences with Ontario, now you know why I left the place - in 1982.  The writing was already on the wall. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Jan van Eck

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, wrs said:

I have filled the 8mpg car up three times and the RR only once.

I hope "RR" stands for Range Rover, not for Rolls Royce. 😀

[wrs + 893]

1 minute ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I hope "RR" stands for Range Rover, not for Rolls Royce. 😀

Yeah, it's Range Rover. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, BLA said:

I don't think the stock market reflects reality and could test lower levels.  

 

The stock market reflect the expected recovery once the economy opens. It is forward looking, though the expectations seem far too rosy. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

If it is down by 60%, that implies tht 40% of ore-virus levels are still being consumed, assuming no stockpiling by either motorists or retailers.  That strikes me as a highnumber, for gasoline.  I could see it for diesel, but gasoline?  Nobody is driving.  40% strikes me as quite high.  I would have thought the consumption today would be at or below 10%. 

You have to wonder what the number is for jet-fuel.  

Reading the article below, which, to me, seems to best reflect the realities of commercial aviation at this time, puts the decrease in consumption at somewhere between 60 to 75% (I think 70% is an accurate number).  The article gives insight from organizations whose job it is to forecast such things accurately.

Jet fuel demand to remain low for years as airlines buckle up for tough ride

 

The jet fuel market I think looks more like Rystad's forecast than the others

Rystad expected jet fuel demand to fall at least 1.9 million bpd in 2020, and JBC Energy consultancy estimated jet fuel demand over the next few months to fall to below 2 million bpd and to 5.2 million bpd on average in 2020.

I don't believe that this is going to continue this way. Remdesivir is already looking broadly useful in reversing disease in advanced cases, while HCQ/Z is good at the early symptomatic stage and as a prophylactic. There is no reason to have a substantial restriction on activity once the number of active cases outside of hospitals reduces substantially. 

The disease is already over, and has been for two weaks. It has peaked. Solutions are in place. They just need to scale in production. In the interim we just need to avoid creating major outbreaks. There is absolutely not reason to attempt to stamp out the virus..  That means that downtown areas must keep passengers off the Subway and buses without PPE.

We are waiting for the rest of the untested infected folks to be non-contagious. For the bulk of the country outside the dense cities this is already possible next week. The Metro from Philly to Boston will take up to 3 weeks. 

Sardine like travel is off the agenda. People will drive. Urbanites will Uber not subway. Gasoline consumption will explode. 

The supply chain migration out of China is worth at leas 3 mob/d for heavy capital investment and an enormous training period for the former hospitality industry labor to work the machines. 

China's example is that people are no longer willing to use public transport to commute. Which means that NYC and other similar (though much less dense) employment centers, must migrate out into the open spaces and home offices. This will go far beyond compensating for jet fuel demand losses. US oil consumption will be UP well before the end of the year. Jet travel will be for urgent circumstances, otherwise, we drive. Public transport will be empty. Where the city is just to dense, the office will permanently move out of the city. We have proven it just plain doesn't need to be there. The downtown high rent office is defunct. The high priced apartments people needed to be in proximity to that office are no longer necessary. 

 

[Ron Ron + 18]

You need a strong testing and tracing program in place before you can open up areas in which the virus is endemic.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Reading the article below, which, to me, seems to best reflect the realities of commercial aviation at this time, puts the decrease in consumption at somewhere between 60 to 75% (I think 70% is an accurate number).  The article gives insight from organizations whose job it is to forecast such things accurately.

Jet fuel demand to remain low for years as airlines buckle up for tough ride

 

For many years we have been driving wherever we go from coast to coast. We hate the airport routine and the high fares. We change our routes and see whatever we want that we have not already seen. We have been to all fifty states. Working on the Canadian Provinces. Honeymooned in Mexico 38 years ago. Covid 19 is forcing us to stay home. The chicken coop, hen house, and sunken 100 gallon goldfish pond are done. Just awaiting flagstone for beautifying and a waterfall. The chicks come next month. Getting our pedal boat ready for the lake 3 miles from our house. We can walk or bike the local trail and nature preserve. Life is good as long as it lasts. Everyone stay healthy out there and enjoy life as best you can. 

One hidden blessing of Covid 19 might be showing people that living large may not be the best way to live. Maybe we can enjoy a smaller home, less expensive vehicles, and less wasting of money. Still, for the young, there is a lot of work to be done so you can enjoy your life, pay the bills, raise your kids, and keep it all together.