2019 Was the Final Peak Oil Year... It's Done.

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

Russia and Saudi Arabia have won. America reached peak oil production in 2019.  The debate can end on fracking and "peak supply" or "peak demand." We hit "peak costs." We found "peak funding." That's it!  A system that was already grasping at a bare root on the side of the mountain has finally let go.  The red queen plus evaporating funding plus state fracking regulations and taxes plus Russia/Saudi Arabia plus Covid-19 and the long term energy demand slump the coming recession/depression will unveil... It's over. 

2019 was the U.S. Peak energy production year no matter how you slice it.  It's not going to hit that level again. I thought it would be 2010. Fracking extended it 9 year. Welcome the the back side of the slope.

[wrs + 893]

Well there are all kinds of posts every few years saying the same thing.  Good luck looking back on this one.

[BillKidd + 139]

6 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Russia and Saudi Arabia have won. America reached peak oil production in 2019.  The debate can end on fracking and "peak supply" or "peak demand." We hit "peak costs." We found "peak funding." That's it!  A system that was already grasping at a bare root on the side of the mountain has finally let go.  The red queen plus evaporating funding plus state fracking regulations and taxes plus Russia/Saudi Arabia plus Covid-19 and the long term energy demand slump the coming recession/depression will unveil... It's over. 

2019 was the U.S. Peak energy production year no matter how you slice it.  It's not going to hit that level again. I thought it would be 2010. Fracking extended it 9 year. Welcome the the back side of the slope.

I hope you're wrong but I tend to think you are right. It's going to be very ugly, indeed.

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

40 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

I hope you're wrong but I tend to think you are right. It's going to be very ugly, indeed.

Once Trump gets re-elected (because Biden is an addle minded empty suit) he will throw giant tariffs on oil imports to prop up the industry.  That won't put production back over 2019 levels but it will keep it from dropping 40%. This will permanently raise gasoline prices.  So sell your SUV. But it will probably cause retaliatory tariffs on Natural Gas exports by countries who want priority access to Saudi Arabian exports. This should keep more natural gas in the country keeping electricity prices low because natural gas will be close to free. 

The tariffs will probably have to wait until after the election.  So the companies are on their own until then... maybe a little FED bond purchasing through intermediaries... but nothing overt. 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

48 minutes ago, wrs said:

Well there are all kinds of posts every few years saying the same thing.  Good luck looking back on this one.

Really?  Nothing has changed?  You can't imagine a future that is in any way different from the past this time?  Covid-19 demand destruction, long-term recession, Russia and Saudi Arabia on top of normal demand destruction that was already happening... and the funding problem... plus rising state regulations and taxes.... 

The tariffs will help, but 2019 was peak for sure. I'm calling it!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Once Trump gets re-elected (because Biden is an addle minded empty suit) he will throw giant tariffs on oil imports to prop up the industry.  That won't put production back over 2019 levels but it will keep it from dropping 40%. This will permanently raise gasoline prices.  So sell your SUV. But it will probably cause retaliatory tariffs on Natural Gas exports by countries who want priority access to Saudi Arabian exports. This should keep more natural gas in the country keeping electricity prices low because natural gas will be close to free. 

The tariffs will probably have to wait until after the election.  So the companies are on their own until then... maybe a little FED bond purchasing through intermediaries... but nothing overt. 

Where can I buy a crystal ball like yours?

There are so many variables in play at the moment that your scenario is simply a wild ass guess!

Do you know when this covid19 pandemic will be over? Do you have any idea how long it will take for the global economy to get rolling again? Can you tell us if supply chains will relocate out of China? If so, where and how long will that take? Do you have any concept of the backlash and retaliation that is coming, or what form it will take?

[pisstol + 48]

If Trump tariffs foreign oil, he is going to mainly tariff Canadian oil. We don't import much Middle Eastern oil any more.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Do-US-Shale-Drillers-Deserve-To-Exist-In-Free-Markets.html

From Mitchell McGeorge's oilprice.com article: "In 2019 the US imported on average 9.12 million barrels per day. The top 5 locations from which the US imported in 2019 were: Canada ... 49%; Mexico ... 7%; Saudi Arabia ... 6%; Russia ... 6%; Colombia ... 4%.

Predatory pricing is a dirty trick, but I don't see how tariffs will stop it.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Really?  Nothing has changed?  You can't imagine a future that is in any way different from the past this time?  Covid-19 demand destruction, long-term recession, Russia and Saudi Arabia on top of normal demand destruction that was already happening... and the funding problem... plus rising state regulations and taxes.... 

The tariffs will help, but 2019 was peak for sure. I'm calling it!

America can always revive its energy industries. Meanwhile OPEC and Russia are going down the shithole. Their economies will die with low oil prics.  I think we can apply tariffs any time Trump wants, but he will deal with that. We buy our own oil and natural gas for very good prices. We pay more in taxes and delivery charges. We are energy independent and don't need OPEC or Russia. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

15 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Once Trump gets re-elected (because Biden is an addle minded empty suit) he will throw giant tariffs on oil imports to prop up the industry.  That won't put production back over 2019 levels but it will keep it from dropping 40%. This will permanently raise gasoline prices.  So sell your SUV. But it will probably cause retaliatory tariffs on Natural Gas exports by countries who want priority access to Saudi Arabian exports. This should keep more natural gas in the country keeping electricity prices low because natural gas will be close to free. 

The tariffs will probably have to wait until after the election.  So the companies are on their own until then... maybe a little FED bond purchasing through intermediaries... but nothing overt. 

Which is why Trump will do no such thing, and if so, tariffs would only be a short term measure. Generally, the heavy crudes imported are necessary for using LTO. Tariffs are just useless. 

To the degree life resumes normalcy and idiot governors let go the shut down, the resumption of activity will include a number of pro-oil demand items. 

1, Substitution of driving for public transport and air travel.

2. capital expenditure to regionalize and build redundancy into supply chains to avoid sole sourcing, particularly from China 

3. The Millennial migration out of the cities to suburbs and new industrial towns. Started already, but will gain speed.

On the other hand, the city office has diminished in value and thus the portion of time people spend in the office may be reduced permanently, thus having a large business office in a large city center where people come in daily with hours of commuting will be much reduced, with dispersed suburban offices being preferred and smaller center city offices used for conferencing when intense collaboration is not doable via video conference etc. . The loss of commuting time driving might be a negative impact with time, but distances traveled may be greater for a dispersed office system. 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

14 hours ago, pisstol said:

If Trump tariffs foreign oil, he is going to mainly tariff Canadian oil. We don't import much Middle Eastern oil any more.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Do-US-Shale-Drillers-Deserve-To-Exist-In-Free-Markets.html

From Mitchell McGeorge's oilprice.com article: "In 2019 the US imported on average 9.12 million barrels per day. The top 5 locations from which the US imported in 2019 were: Canada ... 49%; Mexico ... 7%; Saudi Arabia ... 6%; Russia ... 6%; Colombia ... 4%.

Predatory pricing is a dirty trick, but I don't see how tariffs will stop it.

He will not tariff Canadian oil after the recent trade agreement.

[BradleyPNW + 282]

15 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Once Trump gets re-elected (because Biden is an addle minded empty suit)...

If we say Biden is addle-minded we need to say Donald is a walking lobotomy to maintain consistency. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

^

What? Our guy lost a lobe?

So now it's Joey Two Lobes? 

I liked Joey Two Fingers better but whatever.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

17 minutes ago, BradleyPNW said:

If we say Biden is addle-minded we need to say Donald is a walking lobotomy to maintain consistency. 

Even with a lobotomy, Trump can think circles around Biden, and apparently you.

[BillKidd + 139]

37 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Even with a lobotomy, Trump can think circles around Biden, and apparently you.

Hahahahahahahahahaha! Trump has a brain? That's the dumbest sombitch ever elected. All I have to do is roll tape. Effin moron.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

Hahahahahahahahahaha! Trump has a brain? That's the dumbest sombitch ever elected. All I have to do is roll tape. Effin moron.

Right....he has done absolutely nothing good for the States in the past 3+ years...roll the tape!

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

The last half dozen posts are precisely the answer Douglas to your thread titled "Why the interest"!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

22 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

The last half dozen posts are precisely the answer Douglas to your thread titled "Why the interest"!

Kinda sad, isn’t it...😂

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

13 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Kinda sad, isn’t it...😂

Yep

I think more so than ever since Trump was elected the US has become incredibly polarized in its views. Now that alone makes US politics interesting, nothing more boring than hearing the same views from everyone and everywhere! Its the same on this forum frankly.

For me to use an American term of "having no skin in the game" its really interesting to read those that are pro Trump republicans versus the Democrats on this forum. You are polar opposites on pretty much everything with no middle ground. In the UK we just dont have that, we have a multi-party system where you have a generally right wing party in the Conservatives a middle ground Social democrat/liberal party and then on the left the Labour party. There are a few others uch as the Greens and UKIP but in reality they arent worth your vote unless you are an extremist.

American politics is just more interesting at the moment, whilst we had Brexit ours was for a while but because it dragged on for 3 years it became bloody boring and thats why Boris got his landslide as everyone was sick of it.

The EU potentially breaking up is an interesting one, I sort of agree with Rasmus that this could go either way, but with the current crisis I think countries will become more insular and self reliant on many industries where possible, this I think will ultimately be at the expense of the EU, but we'll have to wait and see.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

He will not tariff Canadian oil after the recent trade agreement.

 

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

28 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Yep

I think more so than ever since Trump was elected the US has become incredibly polarized in its views. Now that alone makes US politics interesting, nothing more boring than hearing the same views from everyone and everywhere! Its the same on this forum frankly.

For me to use an American term of "having no skin in the game" its really interesting to read those that are pro Trump republicans versus the Democrats on this forum. You are polar opposites on pretty much everything with no middle ground. In the UK we just dont have that, we have a multi-party system where you have a generally right wing party in the Conservatives a middle ground Social democrat/liberal party and then on the left the Labour party. There are a few others uch as the Greens and UKIP but in reality they arent worth your vote unless you are an extremist.

American politics is just more interesting at the moment, whilst we had Brexit ours was for a while but because it dragged on for 3 years it became bloody boring and thats why Boris got his landslide as everyone was sick of it.

The EU potentially breaking up is an interesting one, I sort of agree with Rasmus that this could go either way, but with the current crisis I think countries will become more insular and self reliant on many industries where possible, this I think will ultimately be at the expense of the EU, but we'll have to wait and see.

The polarization in American politics actually became prominent during the Obama years, and has just gotten worse. It is becoming a real worry.

It would be good if we did have a third, middle of the road party as an option. If this seesawing between hardcore democrat to hardcore republican, then back continues, the government will simply get gridlocked as there is no compromise available.

I don’t see a civil war scenario, eventually the rank and file American will simply get fed up with the childish bullshit and demand a change. Perhaps this Covid19/lockdown situation will cause a reset.

At the end of the day, two parties are better than one!

Watch the next elections for the house and senate as a sounding board.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Douglas Buckland
Vvvv

[RSD + 41]

1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The polarization in American politics actually became prominent during the Obama years, and has just gotten worse. It is becoming a real worry.

It would be good if we did have a third, middle of the road party as an option. If this seesawing between hardcore democrat to hardcore republican, then back continues, the government will simply get gridlocked as there is no compromise available.

I don’t see a civil war scenario, eventually the rank and file American will simply get fed up with the childish bullshit and demand a change. Perhaps this Covid19/lockdown situation will cause a reset.

At the end of the day, two parties are better than one!

Watch the next elections for the house and senate as a sounding board.

Trust me you don't want three parties - you end up with a minority government having to agree to all sorts of wacky shit to get the votes to get legislation through.

And WTI just hit $13.47 - ouch!

[Rob Plant + 2,605]

49 minutes ago, RSD said:

Trust me you don't want three parties - you end up with a minority government having to agree to all sorts of wacky shit to get the votes to get legislation through.

And WTI just hit $13.47 - ouch!

Nope this is incorrect.

Excluding war ministries set up for WW2 the UK has had 1 coalition government in the last 100 years!

[RSD + 41]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

Nope this is incorrect.

Excluding war ministries set up for WW2 the UK has had 1 coalition government in the last 100 years!

Minority givernments have been a disaster in Australia for the last few years - country has not been able to progress at all.

And WTI now at $12.94 - getting real ugly now!

[0R0 + 6,251]

Stop looking at the May contract. It is just traders trying to unload ahead of expiration so as to avoid allocation of physical crude. For those who want physical, the cash quote is $18. The main contract month is already June at $22.50. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

8 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Stop looking at the May contract. It is just traders trying to unload ahead of expiration so as to avoid allocation of physical crude. For those who want physical, the cash quote is $18. The main contract month is already June at $22.50. 

And this is why we need different expertise on this forum!