BL

Trump asks Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Treasury to put together a relief program for oil industry.

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(edited)

This is going to be tricky.

There is a difference between providing liquidity to an industry and .  .  .   providing solvency to some zombie firms.

The Congressional relief programs are  not meant for the latter. 

It is not supposed to support the zombie oil companies that should have been gone years ago. 

How do they deliniate between the two.  Or does the Federal Government do the same 'ol deal, everyone gets a check.  

Notice Trump doesn't do the obvious up front decision that would be so easy to justify. That's stop Saudis from dumping what is now at least 40 million bbls of oil on its way to U.S. shores.  WHY ?

Why is Trump being let off the hook on this one ?

Why does Trump continue to placate Mohammed bin Salman ?

Edited by BLA
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(edited)

As Cassius Clay fighting like a bumble bee. 

Edited by Bikewritert66

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(edited)

15 hours ago, surrept33 said:

if your looking for substantive deep policy debate

The debate between Democrat and Republicans over oil industry relief will be contentious.

Edited by BLA
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14 hours ago, BLA said:

That would be cruel.  

Corn Pop would protect Joe.

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14 hours ago, Bikewritert66 said:

As Cassius Clay fighting like a bumble bee. 

You forgot the part about floating like a butterfly .   . . . .

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16 hours ago, BLA said:

This is going to be tricky.

There is a difference between providing liquidity to an industry and  .  .  .  .

.   . .   providing solvency

The Congressional relief programs are not meant for the latter. 

It is not supposed to support the zombie oil companies that should have been gone years ago. 

How do they deliniate between the two.  Or does the Federal Government do the same 'ol deal, everyone gets a check.  

Notice Trump doesn't do the obvious up front decision that would be so easy to justify. That's stop Saudis from dumping what is now at least 40 million bbls of oil on its way to U.S. shores.  WHY ?

Why is Trump being let off the hook on this one ?

Why does Trump continue to placate Mohammed bin Salman ?

Why is Trump so afraid of Mohammed bin Salman ?

Hopefully CNN's  Jim Acosta will ask the tough questions at the next presser and get to the bottom of Trump's reticence toward Saudi Arabia.

 

Our oil and gas industries are suffering BUT the largest players apparently want to let Russia and OPEC destroy each other with low prices. They have the large reserves so America is actually benefited in the long range. The Oil Majors will pick up the pieces at huge discounts and put them all back together as needed. Our geopolitical situation is greatly helped by a weak Middle East and a weak Russia. We are a very large consumer of oil so we benefit more than we lose. That is my theory. 

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I'm fine with it as long as I get 1% of all future profits from all who receive the bailout.

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20 hours ago, BLA said:

How do they deliniate between the two.  Or does the Federal Government do the same 'ol deal, everyone gets a check.  

I'm not a big fan of the bailouts. Most of the airlines were zombies before they were bailed out. Coal was a zombie industry, and weakening regulations has done nothing to fix that. Even the $28 billion farmer bailout seems to have been mismanaged.

I muse about putting tariffs on oil, but it really isn't a great idea.  The reality is that the Saudis and Russians didn't do this to goad America, they did this because they are the only ones that commit to cuts.  Everyone else cheats in their quotas and they are comfortable making everyone very uncomfortable so they can get what they see as a "fair" market share.

America can't go to DEFCON 5 over a trade dispute that is, in reality, probably neutral to America in economic terms. Some states make less selling oil, other states save the same amount of money. During the Great Depression high tariffs became all the rage and helped in creating a 10-year stagnation. Unless there is another strong reason to do so, high tariffs are overkill.

So in the end, a well-managed bailout/buyout may be the best we can hope for.

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I'm not a big fan of the bailouts. Most of the airlines were zombies before they were bailed out. Coal was a zombie industry, and weakening regulations has done nothing to fix that. Even the $28 billion farmer bailout seems to have been mismanaged.

I muse about putting tariffs on oil, but it really isn't a great idea.  The reality is that the Saudis and Russians didn't do this to goad America, they did this because they are the only ones that commit to cuts.  Everyone else cheats in their quotas and they are comfortable making everyone very uncomfortable so they can get what they see as a "fair" market share.

America can't go to DEFCON 5 over a trade dispute that is, in reality, probably neutral to America in economic terms. Some states make less selling oil, other states save the same amount of money. During the Great Depression high tariffs became all the rage and helped in creating a 10-year stagnation. Unless there is another strong reason to do so, high tariffs are overkill.

So in the end, a well-managed bailout/buyout may be the best we can hope for.

Trump won't use tariffs to bail out industry because tariffs won't help.

You say 

"The reality is that the Saudis and Russians didn't do this to goad America, they did this because they are the only ones that commit to cuts.  Everyone else cheats"

Russians have never complied with cuts.  Saudis have never really complied.  Cutting "production" agreements don't work.  The members export the maximum supply they can and cheat on production or make an excuse to production and fill the storage tanks up.

There are three power players that produce over 10 mm bbls/day. (1) Saudis (2) Russia and (3) U.S. 

*  63% of Saudi GDP is energy oil/gas, 87% of their budget, 90% of their exports. 

*  55% of Russian GDP is oil/gad

*  7% of United States GDP is oil/gas

Too much oil supply . Russia and Saudis are desparate. Their regimes depend on the oil price.  

GET READY FOR A BRAVE NEW WORLD.  

It's a brand new oil world. The U.S. oil industry knows they need consolidation.  But it's an election year and Trump wants to address low prices by supporting the zombie shale players with a bail out.  Hard to believe. 

* Trump should stop predatory pricing by the Saudis.

* Trump should send the 18 or 20 tankers enroute to U.S. back to Saudi Arabia.

Nothing he can do will save the over leveraged producers .  If he guarantees the bank debt of these forms he will be costing U.S. taxpayers untold billions. 

He wants to get reelected.  It's not his money. 

 

 

Edited by BLA

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(edited)

How is it the governments are now able to pull seemingly endless amounts of money out of their hat that they weren't able to do so before?

Edited by canadas canadas

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(edited)

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Trump won't use tariffs to bail out industry because tariffs won't help.

You say 

"The reality is that the Saudis and Russians didn't do this to goad America, they did this because they are the only ones that commit to cuts.  Everyone else cheats"

Russians have never complied with cuts.  Said have never really complied.  Cutting "production" agreements don't work.  The members export the maximum supply they can and cheat or production or make an excuse for production and fill the storage tanks.  

There are three power players that produce over 10 mm bbls/day. (1) Saudis (2) Russia and (3) U.S. 

80% of Saudi GDP is energy oil/gas

55% of Russian GDP is oil/gad

8% of United States GDP is oil/gas

Too much oil supply . Russia and Saudis are desparate. Their regimes depend on the oil price.  

It's a brand new oil world. The U.S. oil industry knows they need consolidation.  But it's an election year and Trump wants to address low prices by supporting the zombie shale players with a bail out.  Hard to believe. 

* Trump should stop predatory pricing by the Saudis.

* Trump should send the 18 or 20 tankers enroute to U.S. back to Saudi Arabia.

Nothing he can do will save the over leveraged producers .  If he guarantees the bank debt of these forms he will be costing U.S. taxpayers untold billions. 

He wants to get reelected.  It's not his money. 

 

 

Crude oil exports also account for a large amount of Canadian exports and with crude oil prices dropping Western Canadian Select (WCS) made from oilsands bitumen blend currently costs more to produce than its current market price can make up for.

Edited by canadas canadas

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