Pew Poll: 90% of U.S. believes China is threat.

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

My thinking has focused on China's wobbly economics, the profitless industries, the real estate people can't live in because there are no jobs there. The super leveraged absurdly priced real estate that is the nation's wealth and which has funded this decade. And the fact that those jobs are staffed by migrants who don't have a hope of owning a place to live. 

The country is far weaker than it looks. The CCP is appearing to be closing up shop now. Cutting off its people from the broader world, and the broader world appears poised to break off from China as soon as they can.

Without that trade continuing and having a means to finance it, China is just going to keel over within a couple of years. So if they are going to war, they will have to get a move on. 

You may have just described the West?

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

Nuclear weapons get an immediate nuclear response. No international conference, no red phone. Just missiles flying to Beijing. I don't know the range of their aircraft or large drones. 

But missiles flying to Beijing = missiles flying to Washington and New York. Face it, ur stuffed, we are all stuffed, unless we collaborate and stop trading with them, and make clear that the South China sea is not theirs.

[0R0 + 6,251]

Just now, Wombat said:

You may have just described the West?

Yes, in a way, but not in the same order of magnitude. The margin that China "stole" from Western industry did not end up with China getting rich, Just the West getting poorer - which at least in the US has not been the case for some years now. What it did do was provide China with strategic advantage in response speed and capacity. While their private market economy was doing great, particularly in exports, while the SOEs were just producing debt and further capacity into saturated markets but get big enough and you are suddenly an SOE with CCP members on your board of directors. Suddenly you have strategic missions and no way to make a real profit. 

The West's biggest real estate problems are Chinese investors. Otherwise, it is not that much of a problem. Western Real estate leverage is lower than a decade ago and most of that is due to having to compete with price agnostic Chinese investors. 

Western excess leverage is in the government sector. Though obviously Australia has other issues, more similar to Korea where consumer leverage is huge. Should review Australian financial economy. 

The Chinese are at about 5X GDP in leverage US going to be 3X, Europe ex Germany is going to be 4X. The dollar system is woefully short of dollars and the Fed buying up $6 Trillion of paper is still going to leave it short. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 minutes ago, Wombat said:

But missiles flying to Beijing = missiles flying to Washington and New York. Face it, ur stuffed, we are all stuffed, unless we collaborate and stop trading with them, and make clear that the South China sea is not theirs.

The stop trading part is happening anyway. 

The Chinese capability to deliver nukes into major US targets is questionable. Depends on how well antimissile tech has advanced. 

What level of awareness and commitment do you perceive in the Trump Admin?  

[Wombat + 1,028]

1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

The stop trading part is happening anyway. 

The Chinese capability to deliver nukes into major US targets is questionable. Depends on how well antimissile tech has advanced. 

What level of awareness and commitment do you perceive in the Trump Admin?  

I think they will bend over backwards to please corporate America, hence the trade truce with China. I expect more of the same BS, China will "rape" America at an ever faster pace. The only "stop trading" is that China hittin you where it hurts most, won't buy your LNG.

[Wombat + 1,028]

7 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The stop trading part is happening anyway. 

The Chinese capability to deliver nukes into major US targets is questionable. Depends on how well antimissile tech has advanced. 

What level of awareness and commitment do you perceive in the Trump Admin?  

Once the election over, it will be "LNG and soybeans" for removal on all tariffs on China except steel. Whole trade war was a waste of time? Nothing will change?

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I think they will bend over backwards to please corporate America, hence the trade truce with China. I expect more of the same BS, China will "rape" America at an ever faster pace. The only "stop trading" is that China hittin you where it hurts most, won't buy your LNG.

I don't think a second Trump term will be like that. He has particular marching orders for them, and they have particular issues they need help with to get out of China and move core operations into NAFTA. Or at least offshore from China.

I have a problem with the Chinese ability to continue with competitive positioning to maintain the sucking of industry out of the US, as it has pretty much reversed 2 years ago and outgoing capacity out of China has been increasing from before the trade war. What is keeping business from really flying off is the lack of people interested in working the shop floor in the US, and the lack of the kind of immediate production ecosystem they have there, as there used to be in the US, and is building again, though not fast enough to support a war. . 

[Wombat + 1,028]

19 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The stop trading part is happening anyway. 

The Chinese capability to deliver nukes into major US targets is questionable. Depends on how well antimissile tech has advanced. 

What level of awareness and commitment do you perceive in the Trump Admin?  

There are only 2 things that the US needs from the rest of the world, oil and rare earth metals. U will have the full gamut of rare earths in a few years, and if u were smart, u wld then only trade with Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, and UK. Between us we all have all the industry and resources we need.

[Rob Plant + 2,610]

5 minutes ago, Wombat said:

There are only 2 things that the US needs from the rest of the world, oil and rare earth metals. U will have the full gamut of rare earths in a few years, and if u were smart, u wld then only trade with Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, and UK. Between us we all have all the industry and resources we need.

I'd suggest adding DRC to that list!

https://www.mining-technology.com/features/into-africa-the-us-drive-for-african-rare-earth-minerals/

[0R0 + 6,251]

Just now, Wombat said:

There are only 2 things that the US needs from the rest of the world, oil and rare earth metals. U will have the full gamut of rare earths in a few years, and if u were smart, u wld then only trade with Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, and UK. Between us we all have all the industry and resources we need.

That is where I was seeing things going NAFTA UK NZ Australia + Japan and Taiwan. Precision manufacturing is a necessary expertise. Expensive to do in the US. I was still hoping the EU will join in under reasonable terms where they don't VAT their way into mercantile advantage. 

War with China is a different issue, and was not something I was thinking they would be contemplating seriously right now. And by my analysis it would be something they would not be able to afford in a decade. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I don't think a second Trump term will be like that. He has particular marching orders for them, and they have particular issues they need help with to get out of China and move core operations into NAFTA. Or at least offshore from China.

I have a problem with the Chinese ability to continue with competitive positioning to maintain the sucking of industry out of the US, as it has pretty much reversed 2 years ago and outgoing capacity out of China has been increasing from before the trade war. What is keeping business from really flying off is the lack of people interested in working the shop floor in the US, and the lack of the kind of immediate production ecosystem they have there, as there used to be in the US, and is building again, though not fast enough to support a war. . 

I have explained several times on this web-site why none of us can compete with China but I will do so one last time just coz you the only one who seems interested. Let say avg US factory worker salary = $60k. Gets 2% pay rise. That $1200. In Chinese Yuan, that is 8400 Yuan. Now say Chinese worker get 30,000 yuan per year. Then a whopping 10% pay rise. Just 3000 Yuan! Less than half the American worker. ie: Chinese worker becomes more competitive every year no matter what. Yuan will never re-value. It is fixed, not floating. More American industry will die each year unless China floats its currency and it goes up. Won't happen. That is why all American politicians call China "currency manipulator", and Obama did "pivot to Asia" to try scare them, but no follow thru and Trump the same.

[Wombat + 1,028]

8 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I'd suggest adding DRC to that list!

https://www.mining-technology.com/features/into-africa-the-us-drive-for-african-rare-earth-minerals/

Ha Ha, we don't even need their cobalt. Plenty of it in the tailings from the Nickel here in Australia.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

AND THATS NEWS......

[Wombat + 1,028]

9 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

That is where I was seeing things going NAFTA UK NZ Australia + Japan and Taiwan. Precision manufacturing is a necessary expertise. Expensive to do in the US. I was still hoping the EU will join in under reasonable terms where they don't VAT their way into mercantile advantage. 

War with China is a different issue, and was not something I was thinking they would be contemplating seriously right now. And by my analysis it would be something they would not be able to afford in a decade. 

Neither side can afford, but China not rational right now. They itching for a fight coz they want Taiwan back and US out of area.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

What if Chinese Air Force bombs ur pipelines from Canada? Shuts down Suez Canal with nuclear weapon?

I think China not quite that bold. We have enough nukes to make china a wasteland.

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I think China not quite that bold. We have enough nukes to make china a wasteland.

I don't trust em one bit. I reckon there is a good reason they built that artificial island within 100km of the US base in the Phillipines and have missiles pointed that way. Same with Guam. Prime target in their eyes. Wouldn't put anything past them. Make no mistake, they are preparing for conflict. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

24 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I don't trust em one bit. I reckon there is a good reason they built that artificial island within 100km of the US base in the Phillipines and have missiles pointed that way. Same with Guam. Prime target in their eyes. Wouldn't put anything past them. Make no mistake, they are preparing for conflict. 

Those artificial islands couldn't withstand a 30megaton at 1000 feet. They would disappear. Watch some old atomic news reels on utube and you'll get the gist. We (USA) and Russia have more intel on what size payload to do certain damage. We did literally in early 50's remove some islands that were permanent.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Old-Ruffneck

[Wombat + 1,028]

43 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

That is where I was seeing things going NAFTA UK NZ Australia + Japan and Taiwan. Precision manufacturing is a necessary expertise. Expensive to do in the US. I was still hoping the EU will join in under reasonable terms where they don't VAT their way into mercantile advantage. 

War with China is a different issue, and was not something I was thinking they would be contemplating seriously right now. And by my analysis it would be something they would not be able to afford in a decade. 

Yes, I agree. Wld add Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.

[Wombat + 1,028]

Gotta go yáll. Just gone midnite here. Thanx for the lively discussion! 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

I have explained several times on this web-site why none of us can compete with China but I will do so one last time just coz you the only one who seems interested. Let say avg US factory worker salary = $60k. Gets 2% pay rise. That $1200. In Chinese Yuan, that is 8400 Yuan. Now say Chinese worker get 30,000 yuan per year. Then a whopping 10% pay rise. Just 3000 Yuan! Less than half the American worker. ie: Chinese worker becomes more competitive every year no matter what. Yuan will never re-value. It is fixed, not floating. More American industry will die each year unless China floats its currency and it goes up. Won't happen. That is why all American politicians call China "currency manipulator", and Obama did "pivot to Asia" to try scare them, but no follow thru and Trump the same.

You forgot to factor in the backlash for killing hundreds of thousands of foreign citizens.

You can have the cheapest ‘skilled’ labor on the planet, but if people refuse to buy what your cheap labor is making, you may as well not make it.

[BLA + 1,666]

2 hours ago, Wombat said:

I think they will bend over backwards to please corporate America, hence the trade truce with China. I expect more of the same BS, China will "rape" America at an ever faster pace. The only "stop trading" is that China hittin you where it hurts most, won't buy your LNG.

China recently allowed more favorable regulation for foreign banks.  U.S. Banks are lining up to increase their markets in China.

Manufacturers will not move back in mass to U.S.  because they would not be able to use transfer pricing to avoid U.S. Corp Income Taxes.  That doesn't mean they won't move some mfg out of China.

Companies that have large market opportunity will always mfg in China or risk being spurned by ÇCP. 

U.S. has to be careful how they treat China if they wish to sell energy and agriculture products to China.  The CCP does not need to buy either from U.S.  Plenty of other supply available.

[William Toffenetti + 3]

 The other 10% are  Chinese spyies.   lol

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

New poll results, sponsored by CCP:

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I think China not quite that bold. We have enough nukes to make china a wasteland.

Sorry, @Old-Ruffneck, this statement kinda threw me.  China is a nuclear power in their own right.  Don't they have the power to counter-strike?  Educate me, my friend.

[Rob Plant + 2,610]

4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sorry, @Old-Ruffneck, this statement kinda threw me.  China is a nuclear power in their own right.  Don't they have the power to counter-strike?  Educate me, my friend.

That'll be 2 wastelands then

Thank God we're in the middle

Oh wait.....