Pew Poll: 90% of U.S. believes China is threat.

[BradleyPNW + 282]

15 hours ago, BLA said:

The other 10% that do not see China as a threat ie (Pelosi , Schumer , Joe Biden , CNN anchors , Bloomberg , DNC , Hunter Biden/Chris Heinze Rosemount Hedgefund, Wallstreet Bankers, W.H.O.) should do their homework. 

Joe Biden stated his opposition to China during his debate with Bernie Sanders. He was pretty strong about his opposition to China. I don't know Pelosi or Schumer's opinions on this subject. Of course, when I don't know somone's opinion I don't turn around and put words in their mouths because that would make me look ignorant. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

Wrong, that is what the US and EUROPE are experiencing. I know Americans and most Europeans don't care about their public debt, but there it is, and it must be re-paid, which will cripple both US and Europe. Why do u think Japan and Australia are looking at ways to defend ourselves without US help if necessary?

Australia, Japan, and all nations near China would be crazy not to look at ways to defend themselves without our help. The Demoncrats might let you go in order to befriend China. Biden says "China is no threat man, come on." Our lack of fiscal responsibility is reprehensible to my way of thinking. Where it takes us is massive inflation IMHO. Strangely I am not seeing it yet. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain that. I would also like to know how our economy compares to the mess in China and how they will deal with new supply chain changes. Will our supply chain changes actually evolve quickly?

[TooSteep + 142]

8 hours ago, 0R0 said:

They will nationalize all Chinese properties...

The CCP has not made that easy. If you dig through those http://www.deepthroatipo.com/ blog postings, you will find that the CCP has created impressive layers of misdirection and shell companies. From mines, Manhattan apartment buildings, residential houses through their massive stock holdings, the CCP has gone to tremendous lengths to disguise the beneficial ownership of their western assets. They are masters at using the tools of western capitalism against us.

This one is must reading if someone is going to start thinking about the repatriation of assets:

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2019/06/how-ineffective-bill-becomes.html

Edited April 22, 2020 by TooSteep

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, TooSteep said:

The CCP has not made that easy. If you dig through those http://www.deepthroatipo.com/ blog postings, you will find that the CCP has created impressive layers of misdirection and shell companies. From mines, Manhattan apartment buildings, residential houses through their massive stock holdings, the CCP has gone to tremendous lengths to disguise the beneficial ownership of their western assets. They are masters at using the tools of western capitalism against us.

 

...as if the Federal Government of the U.S. has not identified each and every one of them already.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

As I am trying to point out, that will not stay that way. 

I am also unclear about what the goal of such a war would be. 

I am thinking about an economic war. The size of an economy determines whether it can wage any kind of war. War is not the correct word. Power struggle, 

 

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

 

There is no Western motive for war apart from survival, that is the "deliverable".

Power is the greatest objective motive in human nature and the nations they build. Benjamin Franklin wanted a turkey as our national symbol. He lost to those who wanted an eagle. Many great Western nations have chosen the eagle as their symbol. Interestingly though, the African eagle is the largest. 

Unfortunately IMO, the globalists have snatched the idea of cooperation of nations away from those who want their own nation to be free from dictates from anyone other than God above. The globalists want to be the gods themselves. China wants to run the United Nations with allied nations thus be the globalist superpower. 

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, BradleyPNW said:

Joe Biden stated his opposition to China during his debate with Bernie Sanders. He was pretty strong about his opposition to China. I don't know Pelosi or Schumer's opinions on this subject. Of course, when I don't know somone's opinion I don't turn around and put words in their mouths because that would make me look ignorant. 

Joe said the end of January this year that the "Chinese are not our competitors". He went on and on about Chineses being the United States friend  (1) The opposition have slew of tapes of Joe sucking up to the Chinese (2) Joe was the point man on all Chinese policy under Obama. (3) Hunter Biden is business partners with a bank owned by the Chinese Communist Party. 

It's all on tape

The tapes don't lie

Edited April 22, 2020 by BLA

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

It is the Saudis who have been, and still are, suffering the bulk of the pain in regards to oil price and production. Russia has taken great advantage of them, and has just started sending large amounts of pipeline gas to China via "Power of Siberia" which will triple within 10 years. US LNG will be stranded. Whatever you can do to China, they can do to you. And they will. As soon as they are ready. They are still "softening you up" in case u not notice? Other 90% of Americans notice, that is headline of this article yes?

I don't think that China is softening us up any more. That train has come and gone. They are now going to pay the price for showing their true self. The American people are now awake. Compare that mindset to where it was before Trump. If Trump is reelected he will totally change our supply lines as needed. He will try to maintain good trade with China that also benefits mutually. We cannot be dependent on China in any crucial area. 

Russia is in deep trouble. They are losing their primary industry of gas and oil. Yes, they have gas and oil but its value has gone too low for the profits needed by countries overly dependent on it. They are struggling,financially, to keep building their pipelines. The Ruble is almost at its lowest point in recent decades. It is now at close to 80 rubles per dollar. At some point the people will lose faith in Putin and his oligarchy. 

 

[TooSteep + 142]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

My thinking has focused on China's wobbly economics, the profitless industries, the real estate people can't live in because there are no jobs there. The super leveraged absurdly priced real estate that is the nation's wealth and which has funded this decade. And the fact that those jobs are staffed by migrants who don't have a hope of owning a place to live. 

The country is far weaker than it looks. The CCP is appearing to be closing up shop now. Cutting off its people from the broader world, and the broader world appears poised to break off from China as soon as they can.

Without that trade continuing and having a means to finance it, China is just going to keel over within a couple of years. So if they are going to war, they will have to get a move on. 

You are assuming that the CCP have been playing by western rules regarding currencies, central banks and accounting. What if the US dollars that came into HK to pay for mainland exports never actually made their way into the mainland? What if, through some digital dual-currency sleight of hand, all of those dollars boomeranged right back out again and were used to purchase western assets? 100% owned and controlled by the CCP. Add on many layers of misdirection and shell companies involved in order to hide beneficial ownership.

Imagine if the CCP was effectively earning 100% margins on all private exports. They would be far stronger than they look, no?

 

"In aggregate, we can estimate that the Chinese Communist Party currently controls more than US$30 Trillion of  Western Financial Assets scattered around the globe outside of mainland China.  This war chest continues to grow at roughly $40 Billion a month."

http://www.deepthroatipo.com/the-stealth-nationalization-of-americas-banks-an-economic-whodunit-thriller-novella/

[Marcin2 + 724]

A lot of was written here about nuclear war or conventional war China vs United States. i am sure the war is 99% impossible.

I think conventional war US vs China would go immediately nuclear.

That is why even at the height of Cold War tensions US and Soviet Union were never at direct conflict.

And US and China have way better relations, it is different league, millions of people are visiting each other country. Chinese are not like Russians they are not in gulag they can travel or Settle wherever they want.

Biq Question:

Why China has so small nuclear stockpile only 280 warheads ?

And No first usage policy ?

Do you think they are naive, dumb or they think that any war is not possible ?

They have money to reach parity of 2,000 warheads with US or Russia in a few years.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

But if you want to strangle China you start by cutting off their pipelines from Russia. 

Russia without big oil revenue is unable to attack anything and survive through it. Their clock is most definitely ticking as in a decade they won't have enough young people to field an army of size. 

Young male Russians today may not be of the same mindset as those of the past. They must know how screwed they are by the Putin led oligarchy. They are still impoverished under his leadership. They have no communist ideology to blindly fight for. No Napoleon or Hitler invading the Motherland. They would prefer a better life working in Europe. If Putin is smart he will reverse course and ally with Europe. That is the only way he is safe from China. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Young male Russians today may not be of the same mindset as those of the past. They must know how screwed they are by the Putin led oligarchy. They are still impoverished under his leadership. They have no communist ideology to blindly fight for. No Napoleon or Hitler invading the Motherland. They would prefer a better life working in Europe. If Putin is smart he will reverse course and ally with Europe. That is the only way he is safe from China. 

Angela seems like she would be willing, but Vlad had better act fast since she's not going to be in office much longer.  Although, she may keep some tension on the reins for some time after....

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I don't think a second Trump term will be like that. He has particular marching orders for them, and they have particular issues they need help with to get out of China and move core operations into NAFTA. Or at least offshore from China.

I have a problem with the Chinese ability to continue with competitive positioning to maintain the sucking of industry out of the US, as it has pretty much reversed 2 years ago and outgoing capacity out of China has been increasing from before the trade war. What is keeping business from really flying off is the lack of people interested in working the shop floor in the US, and the lack of the kind of immediate production ecosystem they have there, as there used to be in the US, and is building again, though not fast enough to support a war. . 

We need to be able to depend on trade partners we can trust but maintain a strong ability to produce our own pharmaceuticals, medical machines, PPE, electronics, military, and all basic products. We also need our own "rare" metals industry funded by the federal government. We also need to gear up for all possible internet, mobile phone network, EMP attack, banking and payment backup plans etc. Imagine not being able to pay for anything or access your funds!

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

That is where I was seeing things going NAFTA UK NZ Australia + Japan and Taiwan. Precision manufacturing is a necessary expertise. Expensive to do in the US. I was still hoping the EU will join in under reasonable terms where they don't VAT their way into mercantile advantage. 

War with China is a different issue, and was not something I was thinking they would be contemplating seriously right now. And by my analysis it would be something they would not be able to afford in a decade. 

Well, the US can join the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Canada, Australia, and Japan rescued it and will hold the door open. 🙂

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I'd suggest adding DRC to that list!

https://www.mining-technology.com/features/into-africa-the-us-drive-for-african-rare-earth-minerals/

We do need to maintain alliances with as many nations as possible and that includes some trade. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

I have explained several times on this web-site why none of us can compete with China but I will do so one last time just coz you the only one who seems interested. Let say avg US factory worker salary = $60k. Gets 2% pay rise. That $1200. In Chinese Yuan, that is 8400 Yuan. Now say Chinese worker get 30,000 yuan per year. Then a whopping 10% pay rise. Just 3000 Yuan! Less than half the American worker. ie: Chinese worker becomes more competitive every year no matter what. Yuan will never re-value. It is fixed, not floating. More American industry will die each year unless China floats its currency and it goes up. Won't happen. That is why all American politicians call China "currency manipulator", and Obama did "pivot to Asia" to try scare them, but no follow thru and Trump the same.

If Trump is reelected China will be hurting badly. They will be trying every trick in the book. The CCP Wuhan Virus may have been their best shot. The American voters seem to be aware of that now so we will see. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

6 hours ago, 0R0 said:

My thinking has focused on China's wobbly economics, the profitless industries, the real estate people can't live in because there are no jobs there. The super leveraged absurdly priced real estate that is the nation's wealth and which has funded this decade. And the fact that those jobs are staffed by migrants who don't have a hope of owning a place to live. 

The country is far weaker than it looks. The CCP is appearing to be closing up shop now. Cutting off its people from the broader world, and the broader world appears poised to break off from China as soon as they can.

Without that trade continuing and having a means to finance it, China is just going to keel over within a couple of years. So if they are going to war, they will have to get a move on. 

You may have just described the West?

The problem here is that the US can not defeat China but is doing a fantastic job of imploding itself. China would find it absurd to attack the US but has systemic problems that it probably can't solve by itself. Europe will likely stick together, but as an economic union will always have extra work to maintain itself.

No one can defeat anyone else - each is its own worst enemy. The US hasn't properly won a war since WWII - it's unlikely the country has the stomach for it. China definitely doesn't have the stomach for it. Think of the hundreds of millions of parent with only one kid and what they would do if the government sacrificed them in a war. A proper war is definitely out.

Economic war? So far we have gotten nowhere with the trade disputes. There's a hollow victory in that we're almost back to square one. We're close to the Soviet days when the only way to beat them economically was to face bankruptcy ourselves. I don't think anyone wants to do that either.

China is trying to automate before its workforce all has to face retirement. The West is facing this as well and seems to be struggling just as badly. We all have problems, mostly self-induced, and it's more productive to solve these problems together than by trying to punish an entire country because some people got sick there.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

Neither side can afford, but China not rational right now. They itching for a fight coz they want Taiwan back and US out of area.

No, they want a diversion to get the Chinese populations mind off of the failures of the CCP. Their people are smarter than the CCP and are tired of the bullshit they have to deal with daily. They want their own voice and their own way. No more CCP elites with princes and princesses.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

The problem here is that the US can not defeat China but is doing a fantastic job of imploding itself. China would find it absurd to attack the US but has systemic problems that it probably can't solve by itself. Europe will likely stick together, but as an economic union will always have extra work to maintain itself.

No one can defeat anyone else - each is its own worst enemy. The US hasn't properly won a war since WWII - it's unlikely the country has the stomach for it. China definitely doesn't have the stomach for it. Think of the hundreds of millions of parent with only one kid and what they would do if the government sacrificed them in a war. A proper war is definitely out.

Economic war? So far we have gotten nowhere with the trade disputes. There's a hollow victory in that we're almost back to square one. We're close to the Soviet days when the only way to beat them economically was to face bankruptcy ourselves. I don't think anyone wants to do that either.

China is trying to automate before its workforce all has to face retirement. The West is facing this as well and seems to be struggling just as badly. We all have problems, mostly self-induced, and it's more productive to solve these problems together than by trying to punish an entire country because some people got sick there.

It is not just a matter of punishing someone. We have the ability to give our business to anyone in the world. We do not need to give it to a nation intent on taking over the world. We are not interested in taking over the world but need strong alliances with as many countries as possible to prevent China from doing so. 

Many in our own country want us to go socialist so if they gain control again China may win by default. Many short sighted Americans might think socialism will benefit them. The CCP must be differentiated from the Chinese people and a wedge firmly driven between them. 

The CCP will be doing anything possible to support the left in America. God willing, President Trump will be reelected and continue his work despite all those arrayed against him. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

17 hours ago, 0R0 said:

63% chance of an answer. Of which 30% false negative or 30% false positive. 40% correct answer according to the Czech's, they sent theirs back, Theirs were not "aid" but cost $12 mil. 

60% of the time, it works every time!

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

11 hours ago, Wombat said:

Can I explain why I agree with Jan for once Dan? From China's point of view, they cannot win war against US and allies RIGHT NOW, but know that in 10 years time, they CANNOT LOSE! The more they weaken the US and allies, the quicker the day they cannot lose. It is all about industrial production. The West no longer has enough to match China in a prolonged war. Our only chance is to strike very soon, but we have one big problem: LACK OF RARE EARTHS FOR MISSILES. CHINA HAS NEAR MONOPOLY OF THEM! Australia is trying to help US on this front, we have rare earth company called Lynas, but they do not yet supply the right type of rare earths for missiles. They have, however, signed contract with the Pentagon to open processing plant in US, using ur local materials. As soon as that complete, and sufficient stockpiles of the finished product are built, then US will be ready for war. Japanese aircraft carriers shld also be ready in 3-4 years, and Royal Australian Air Force shld have full complement of F-35's. All the building blocks are going into place.

China is delusional, read 'Unrivaled' by Michael Beckley. This IS Chinas moment in the sun, in 10 years time they're going to have to spend all their excess resources on themselves taking care of their elderly. China has next to zero 'net' power and most likely won't in the decades to come.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing
Typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, BLA said:

China recently allowed more favorable regulation for foreign banks.  U.S. Banks are lining up to increase their markets in China.

Manufacturers will not move back in mass to U.S.  because they would not be able to use transfer pricing to avoid U.S. Corp Income Taxes.  That doesn't mean they won't move some mfg out of China.

Companies that have large market opportunity will always mfg in China or risk being spurned by ÇCP. 

U.S. has to be careful how they treat China if they wish to sell energy and agriculture products to China.  The CCP does not need to buy either from U.S.  Plenty of other supply available.

The corp income tax was cut, it is a smaller differential to the lowest rate offered by tax havens. That is now a minor spread. The only reason to sell food and energy to China is to make it dependent on you. Commercially it is not that important. 

Companies produce in China for China markets. That will not change. 

They will just not export off of those production lines. In part because materials cost less in NAFTA.

The main impediment to US onshoring has been a tight labor market as the young are in the cities where you can't afford to operate industry, and they require training for which they are unwilling to pay. And they don't like the career prospects of industrial work because of what happened to their parents during the China boom's sucking of jobs from the US along with automation that evaporated entire town's worth of jobs. Now that they are (at least temporarily) unemployed, have kids and need to move out of the city, and their views of the city have turned to viewing it as a "death trap", these circumstances are different. 

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

22 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The corp income tax was cut, it is a smaller differential to the lowest rate offered by tax havens. That is now a minor spread. The only reason to sell food and energy to China is to make it dependent on you. Commercially it is not that important. 

Companies produce in China for China markets. That will not change. 

They will just not export off of those production lines. In part because materials cost less in NAFTA.

The main impediment to US onshoring has been a tight labor market as the young are in the cities where you can't afford to operate industry, and they require training for which they are unwilling to pay. And they don't like the career prospects of industrial work because of what happened to their parents during the China boom's sucking of jobs from the US along with automation that evaporated entire town's worth of jobs. Now that they are (at least temporarily) unemployed, have kids and need to move out of the city, and their views of the city have turned to viewing it as a "death trap", these circumstances are different. 

 

IMO, one of the issues with our current onshoring debate is the call to bring all the jobs back inside US boarders. If we viewed the whole of North America as a single economic block we'd be better off strategy wise. We should be building up North America as a whole maximally integrated economic empire. With the resource/innovation base of Canada and the USA along with cheap labor in Mexico combined you come up with an unbeatable combination China (or anyone else) is hopeless to compete with. If companies had not switched from cheap Mexican labor to cheap Chinese labor and kept integrating the North American economy together imagine how much stronger the US position would be today. 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Strangelovesurfing
Typo

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

9 hours ago, 0R0 said:

So you are saying they are going to go for broke to establish an empire to secure their supply lines and resources? 

Same idea as the Nazis? The ultimate stage of the newly industrialized power breaking into the null space between the empires? Having to do this to break control of the empires on those resources so that they can avoid the markups they charge?

Yes, ORO, that is what nations usually do, empire for resources; and the one stop shop China needs???  Australia.  ANZAC/Oz also has near zero population.  And next to nothing between OZ and  China.  Taiwan/Philippines...

Militarily wise, conquering ANZAC would be absurdly easy as long as China can get someone to roll over between China and ANZAC.  There is a simple reason there are so many Chinese in Australia.  China is funneling huge resources/population to OZ specifically. 

Frankly, the only way I see balancing China is to build up India; setting the world back to ~1800 with the sole exception of USA as another pole world power with maybe eventually someone from West/East Africa consolidating becoming a big power along with someone in S. America. 

[TooSteep + 142]

43 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

... in 10 years time they're going to have to spend all their excess resources on themselves taking care of their elderly...

Or just keep releasing versions of the WuFlu. Takes care of their elderly problem ...

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

The problem here is that the US can not defeat China but is doing a fantastic job of imploding itself. China would find it absurd to attack the US but has systemic problems that it probably can't solve by itself. Europe will likely stick together, but as an economic union will always have extra work to maintain itself.

No one can defeat anyone else - each is its own worst enemy. The US hasn't properly won a war since WWII - it's unlikely the country has the stomach for it. China definitely doesn't have the stomach for it. Think of the hundreds of millions of parent with only one kid and what they would do if the government sacrificed them in a war. A proper war is definitely out.

Economic war? So far we have gotten nowhere with the trade disputes. There's a hollow victory in that we're almost back to square one. We're close to the Soviet days when the only way to beat them economically was to face bankruptcy ourselves. I don't think anyone wants to do that either.

China is trying to automate before its workforce all has to face retirement. The West is facing this as well and seems to be struggling just as badly. We all have problems, mostly self-induced, and it's more productive to solve these problems together than by trying to punish an entire country because some people got sick there.

The US hasn't won wars because they had no definition for "win". The war didn't change the societies that created the conditions of enmity. Not the internal stresses, not the outside influences. Tactical success was not going to create strategic change. Can't really change that with Western methods without huge expenditure and direct control. Such as the US is unwilling to do.

The "economic war" is not about the actual trade agreement, but about creating a negative current account for China to start pulling it into financial crisis. Unfortunately, Western bankers are ignoring China's roach motel for capital, going for the bait of wholly owned operations, as if they wouldn't be yanked away at a moment's notice. The bankers are creating a sure fire forward loss for their clients while subsidizing China's wobbly finances against their government's (EU and US) express strategic interests. 

China has been trying to obtain automation technology from Germany, by buying automation companies, which has been blocked, and now trying to raid the company talent and hack it, which is not being aided by current China attitudes. So far as I know the company has not lost people. Now they will be guarded by German intelligence. They knew better than trying to get it from the leading company in Japan. Nor tried the US companies recently. 

But the main problem Chinese face is a cultural swing to focus on efficiency and profitability in terms of return on capital. To view business as something more than a warehouse to keep people off the street.