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Saudis may re-route oil currently on its way to United States

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(edited)

Saudi Dumping 40mm bbls on U.S. is just wrong.  

 

 

Edited by BLA

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(edited)

3 hours ago, nsdp said:

Why , KSA has markets in Central South America that would rather not deal with American oil companies. Chevron's (actually old Texaco) refusal to clean up oil spills in Peru and Ecuador hasn't made us any friends.  Nor has DT in Venezuela

All the majors had a disregard fo the environment in the past. It's wrong.   It's unexcusable. 

It does not factor in today's purchases.  

Edited by BLA

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1 minute ago, BLA said:

LOL

She'll left a mess in Columbia.  They are all guilty.  They buy from the lower prices refiner. 

Yes and Amoco did in Venezuela. KSA price matches . we lose.

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15 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

It's funny last year I kept getting frustrated at the us spr sales any time oil came up. And on the stock boards everyone was saying oh it's just a days demand a drop in the bucket at 15M barrels a pop. Now its let's re fill the spr and let's get some better prices. Now we have 16M barrels keeping cushing full. Well you can only effect something so much before the side effect. 

You need to differentiate btw light oil vs heavy. The reserves sold was heavy the refiners needed.

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7 hours ago, RSD said:

The Aramco oil in the VLCC's currently bound for the U.S. is all sold - was sold before it was loaded at RasTan.

You do not know that.   You are just guessing.

How about a little transparency.  

The Saudis have averaged 512k bbls/day over the last year.  Now they will fllood the U.S. with 40mm bbls of oil over the next 2 1/2 to 3 weeks.

Saudis currently  have 3 full VLCC tankers sitting off port in the GOM with nowhere to unload and store.  Where does the additional 40mm bbls go ?  

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18 minutes ago, BLA said:

Saudis currently  have 3 full VLCC tankers sitting off port in the GOM with nowhere to unload and store.  Where does the additional 40mm bbls go ?  

Did you read the article on shutting in offshore, in today's WSJ?

Guy who ran a pretty good-sized (20,000 bod) offshore outfit is shutting in, said the refiners told him they could buy off the Saudis' tankers in the Gulf, as they'd undercut any bid from the Cushing Hub. 

So . . . . . . unless I'm wrong, the gambit is to park them out there, undercut Cushing for weeks on end, completely bottlenecking US infrastructure. 

This is so wrong on so many levels. It is very hard to believe that the president won't ban them from this.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Did you read the article on shutting in offshore, in today's WSJ?

Guy who ran a pretty good-sized (20,000 bod) offshore outfit is shutting in, said the refiners told him they could buy off the Saudis' tankers in the Gulf, as they'd undercut any bid from the Cushing Hub. 

So . . . . . . unless I'm wrong, the gambit is to park them out there, undercut Cushing for weeks on end, completely bottlenecking US infrastructure. 

This is so wrong on so many levels. It is very hard to believe that the president won't ban them from this.

That's apparently Saudi plan. 

Edited by BLA

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Did you read the article on shutting in offshore, in today's WSJ?

Guy who ran a pretty good-sized (20,000 bod) offshore outfit is shutting in, said the refiners told him they could buy off the Saudis' tankers in the Gulf, as they'd undercut any bid from the Cushing Hub. 

So . . . . . . unless I'm wrong, the gambit is to park them out there, undercut Cushing for weeks on end, completely bottlenecking US infrastructure. 

This is so wrong on so many levels. It is very hard to believe that the president won't ban them from this.

So the Saudis are lining up to underbid -$40 oil, pay the refiner to take the black?

That is beyond me as to why Trump is letting that one happen. I know he wants to crash the Russian oil industry just as badly as Saudi. But this is way too high a price to pay for that. Perhaps a Navy destroyer should be redirecting the Saudi VLCCs?

I am still unsure what the Saudis are actually doing with this. Threat against US producers not cutting, the way they did in Russia?

Edited by 0R0
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2 hours ago, BLA said:

You need to differentiate btw light oil vs heavy. The reserves sold was heavy the refiners needed.

I had never thought that far.  But at the time i still had brent and wcs selling companies.  By by wcs sellers . Now just brent and nat gas (as gassy as possible) . Thanks for another thing to know / think about. 

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(edited)

27 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

So the Saudis are lining up to underbid -$40 oil, pay the refiner to take the black?

That is beyond me as to why Trump is letting that one happen. I know he wants to crash the Russian oil industry just as badly as Saudi. But this is way too high a price to pay for that. Perhaps a Navy destroyer should be redirecting the Saudi VLCCs?

I am still unsure what the Saudis are actually doing with this. Threat against US producers not cutting, the way they did in Russia?

OPEC is just doing what they said they were going to do at the 2018 OPEC sponsored dinner, that was .  .  .  destroy independent U.S. shale producers. 

The surprising part is Trump is perfectly fine with that. 

Edited by BLA

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14 hours ago, BLA said:

You do not know that.   You are just guessing.

How about a little transparency.  

The Saudis have averaged 512k bbls/day over the last year.  Now they will fllood the U.S. with 40mm bbls of oil over the next 2 1/2 to 3 weeks.

Saudis currently  have 3 full VLCC tankers sitting off port in the GOM with nowhere to unload and store.  Where does the additional 40mm bbls go ?  

Those shipments were booked before I retired from Aramco at the end of February - that's how I know.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, RSD said:

Those shipments were booked before I retired from Aramco at the end of February - that's how I know.

Sure

Whatever you say

Edited by BLA

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Mohammad bin Salman's name will be changed shortly to Mohammad dun Gone.  He has made lots of enemies in KSA and they will have the knives out now.

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18 minutes ago, Bob4 said:

 MBS has made lots of enemies in KSA and they will have the knives out now.

Sure that KSA is in a bad spot: oil on its way down as a $$$ commodity, and no other income stream. 

I agree that he is gambling for his life, and the survival of his country, with this oil price war. 

As mentioned in other places, KSA currently needs oil at $80/Bo to balance its budget. The only way to get there is to get rid of the competition. So KSA started a oil price war. And thanks to the price war AND coronavirus, EVERY oil producer is in the shit right now. 

It is likely that, once dust settles in a few months, the US shale is out of the game. And oil price fluctuates back up. 

Sorry to disappoint you, but it is likley that knives remain in the drawer, for now. 

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Plus. MBS is a close/personal friend of Jared. 

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(edited)

55 minutes ago, Dg56 said:

Sure that KSA is in a bad spot: oil on its way down as a $$$ commodity, and no other income stream. 

I agree that he is gambling for his life, and the survival of his country, with this oil price war. 

As mentioned in other places, KSA currently needs oil at $80/Bo to balance its budget. The only way to get there is to get rid of the competition. So KSA started a oil price war. And thanks to the price war AND coronavirus, EVERY oil producer is in the shit right now. 

It is likely that, once dust settles in a few months, the US shale is out of the game. And oil price fluctuates back up. 

Sorry to disappoint you, but it is likley that knives remain in the drawer, for now. 

You do understand that once oil is back over $40 and then $50 the shale will come back right?  There will undoubtedly be some production that fails to come back but these shutins aren't permanent.  This is what is so wrong and stupid about this strategy.  It's been demonstrated to him that the higher the price, the more oil gets pumped all over the world.  The idiot cannot have $80/bbl oil if there is a profit to be made at those levels elsewhere in the world.  It's fairly simple.  He will have to figure out how to get by on $55 oil.

Edited by wrs
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2 hours ago, Bob4 said:

Mohammad bin Salman's name will be changed shortly to Mohammad dun Gone.  He has made lots of enemies in KSA and they will have the knives out now.

You seem to forget that the SA  National Guard is separate from SA military and 100% Beduoin and personally loyal to MBS as he is their commander in chief. this structure came about after Faisal a was assassinated back in the 1970's.    You would have better luck plotting against Vladi or Donny. 

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The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

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On 4/23/2020 at 3:06 PM, BLA said:

You do not know that.   You are just guessing.

How about a little transparency.  

The Saudis have averaged 512k bbls/day over the last year.  Now they will fllood the U.S. with 40mm bbls of oil over the next 2 1/2 to 3 weeks.

Saudis currently  have 3 full VLCC tankers sitting off port in the GOM with nowhere to unload and store.  Where does the additional 40mm bbls go ?  

There are several off the coast of California.  23 at last count.

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4 minutes ago, nsdp said:

The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

and there you go....sorry can't pay 😂

 

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50 minutes ago, nsdp said:

You seem to forget that the SA  National Guard is separate from SA military and 100% Beduoin and personally loyal to MBS as he is their commander in chief. this structure came about after Faisal a was assassinated back in the 1970's.    You would have better luck plotting against Vladi or Donny. 

I think if there is a credible threat against MBS (which right now, I don't think there is, but who knows after a few years of low oil prices), it will likely be from the royal family itself. But MBS knows this.

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This whole this has been a much ado about nothing. They vlcc's can stage offshore like they have been staged offshore NWE and the Med, Singapore , China and other places. People cheering the shutting down of Motiva are also short sighted, Motiva employs Americans. So what of Chevron or XOM or some refiner has purchased 2 or 3 cargoes of Arabian light or medium, they will blend it with other crude oils including US shale crudes. No refineries run pure crude stream of just one type.

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(edited)

30 minutes ago, nsdp said:

There are several off the coast of California.  23 at last count.

Mostly from  Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria.

Check the tracking data.  Facts matter.

Most of the Saudi dumping going to Gulf of Mexico. 

Yes, that's where Motiva is located.  But 40mm to 50mm bbls is dumping.  It's predatory pricing .   .  .  .  .  and acceptable to Trump

 

Edited by BLA

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9 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

I think if there is a credible threat against MBS (which right now, I don't think there is, but who knows after a few years of low oil prices), it will likely be from the royal family itself. But MBS knows this.

Fasial was killed by another member of he Royal family.  This is set up precisely to stop another member of the royal family from acting rashly.

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7 minutes ago, BLA said:

From Iraq, 

 The ones for Valero are from KSA.

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