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Saudis may re-route oil currently on its way to United States

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(edited)

On 4/24/2020 at 4:49 PM, nsdp said:

You seem to forget that the SA  National Guard is separate from SA military and 100% Beduoin and personally loyal to MBS as he is their commander in chief. this structure came about after Faisal a was assassinated back in the 1970's.    You would have better luck plotting against Vladi or Donny. 

MBS barely survived a coup in April 2018. MBS along with his family left for the summer palace in Jeddah after attempted coup with the jet ready to bolt to Europe if needed.  

The coup was attempted by his own cousins

The Salman royals have hundreds of Billions in worldwide investments and bank accounts. IF a successful coup ever took place the royals will be just fine.  

 

Edited by BLA

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(edited)

On 4/24/2020 at 5:22 PM, nsdp said:

The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

Too funny. 

The U.S. debt has never been in higher demand.  MBS probably would not roll it over.  Stupid is as stupid does.  

Please tell us where else they will put their trillions ? 

Only a percentage of Wealth Funds money is in U.S. Debt. 

LOL. 

Edited by BLA
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(edited)

21 hours ago, BLA said:

Too funny. 

The U.S. debt has never been in higher demand.  MBS probably would not roll it over.  Stupid is as stupid does.  

Please tell us where else they will put their trillions ?

 

LOL. 

Well 81 years ago the dollar was not the world's reserve currency  British Gilts were the AAA investment star, .  FDR can give you a very brilliant lesson how he used  the Dollar to  replace the Pound as the world's reserve currency in 1940.   China would like to make the Renminbi the world reserve replacing the Dollar and the Euro is another candidate.

"when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual.  Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.   In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted;   This is the condition of children and barbarians, in which instinct has learned nothing from experience. "  Jorge Santayana  A Life of Reason

Edited by nsdp
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4 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Well 81 years ago the dollar was not the world's reserve currency  British Gilts were the AAA investment star, .  FDR can give you a very brilliant lesson how he used  the Dollar to  replace the Pound as the world's reserve currency in 1940.   China would like to make the Renminbi the world reserve replacing the Dollar and the Euro is another candidate.

when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual.  Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.   In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted;   This is the condition of children and barbarians, in which instinct has learned nothing from experience.   Jorge Santayana  A Life of Reason

 "GOLD STANDARD" was in play back then.

Nothing lasts forever but no change on the horizon.  

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, BLA said:

MBS barely survived a coup in April 2018. MBS along with his family left for the summer palace in Jeddah after attempted coup with the jet ready to bolt to Europe if needed.  

The coup was attempted by his own cousins

The Salman royals have hundreds of Billions in worldwide investments and bank accounts. 

 I don't think you can say MSB barely survived a coup when the KSA National Guard stayed loyal and proceeded with summary executions of the parties leading the  coup attempt and their family.

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2 minutes ago, BLA said:

 "GOLD STANDARD" was in play back then.

Nothing lasts forever but no change on the horizon.  

 

 

 

Exhibit A above of Dr. Santayana's Thesis. US Went off the gold standard seven years before(1933 with the bank holiday ) and it was a federal criminal offense to hold gold for investment, speculation  or as currency.  GB  exited gold  20 years before 1940.   What do they teach in schools these last 65 years?

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Roosevelt used the powers granted to the president by the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 to make gold ownership illegal. He issued Executive Order 6102, which made gold ownership—both in coins and in bars—illegal for all Americans and punishable by up to ten years in prison. Anyone caught with gold would also have to pay a fine of twice the amount of gold that was not turned over to the Federal Reserve in exchange for paper money.

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On 4/24/2020 at 3:22 PM, nsdp said:

The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

Exactly!  DT does understand credit and the leverage it carries.  He's just used to being able to weasel out; not this time... 

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On 4/23/2020 at 6:58 AM, Club said:

( There almost has to be a war--I mean a real war--come out of this. Think about how stupid it was to continue with your ill-considered plan to pump full-out even when you knew almost half the world consumption had evaporated. )

 

Surely it would be far cheaper and simpler to just dump the stuff out at sea and cause a shortage !

 

 

Greta is going to have your guts for garters! HOW DARE YOU!

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On 4/23/2020 at 8:22 AM, JoMack said:

So, the offshore platforms are shutting in production and the Gulf refineries said they'll be taking the Saudi oil sitting in tankers off the coast.  Called Cornyn and Cruz to tell them to stop the Saudi crude and got a call back from Doug Collins office - wanted to know if I wanted to have a sign or if I'd like to volunteer.  Hmmm, said, sorry, but I don't live in Georgia.  At least Gov. Abbot of Texas said the same thing that Cruz and Cornyn said, but the Trump Admin. apparently is more worried about Iran than the America First energy independence which will be gone in 2020-2021. 

The Saudi fight with Russia flooded the world with oil with zero demand, so it looks like they finally got their wish.  The oil industry is seriously contracting and the oil companies running the offshore rigs said it will take at least 2 years to bring back production, 2 million bbls.  The stripper wells have shut-in so add another 3 million bbls lost.  In 3 months, we're back in the hands of OPEC+ and all their whims and pissing matches.  

Not exactly. There will be shitload of inventories to work through, and battle for market share between US, SA and Russia will resume. Everybody will resume pumping, just not at same stupid rate as before?

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On 4/23/2020 at 8:58 AM, Club said:

( There almost has to be a war--I mean a real war--come out of this. Think about how stupid it was to continue with your ill-considered plan to pump full-out even when you knew almost half the world consumption had evaporated. )

 

Surely it would be far cheaper and simpler to just dump the stuff out at sea and cause a shortage !

 

 

Yep, and flick a match on it to reduce environmental pollution. Been saying that for a while?

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On 4/23/2020 at 8:24 AM, Jan van Eck said:

Unlikely.  But "berthing" is not the purpose.  The idea is to have huge supplies right there, ready for purchase, so that if and when some Buyer needs oil, it is available instantly at an attractive price, and that keeps Cushing all bottled up.  If the refiners are taking oil from ships offshore, who is going to buy from Cushing?   And if Cushing is jammed, then where does shale oil go?  

The answwer is that shale, and Cushing, remains clogged.  So, next month, when the futures contracts roll to expiry, once again there will be no place for the contract oil, and it goes negative again, that time at a huge loss, say  Minus $100 or more.  And the game continues. 

If the Saudis need to unload, they will sell the oil into Rotterdam.  Even with tankers sitting in Rotterdam, that wash of fresh oil will continue to depress the market, and Cushing stays jammed.  A Buyer has to consider: how fast can oil from Rotterdam, sitting in a ship, reach his refinery in say New Jersey?  Ten days?  OK, so then that oil is in play, same as if it were sitting right there one hundred yards from his dock.  Oil is not bought and sold on some instantaneous use transaction, it is always "scheduled oil."  The onluy "hot oil" is the oil in the futures contracts. 

Rotterdam has just taken to filling small barges coz they out of storage too, u did not know? (on Bloomberg I think)

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On 4/24/2020 at 8:11 AM, 0R0 said:

So the Saudis are lining up to underbid -$40 oil, pay the refiner to take the black?

That is beyond me as to why Trump is letting that one happen. I know he wants to crash the Russian oil industry just as badly as Saudi. But this is way too high a price to pay for that. Perhaps a Navy destroyer should be redirecting the Saudi VLCCs?

I am still unsure what the Saudis are actually doing with this. Threat against US producers not cutting, the way they did in Russia?

I told you weeks ago that DT and MBS would crush Russia, and rightly so. You clearly were not listening?

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On 4/23/2020 at 5:06 PM, BLA said:

You do not know that.   You are just guessing.

How about a little transparency.  

The Saudis have averaged 512k bbls/day over the last year.  Now they will fllood the U.S. with 40mm bbls of oil over the next 2 1/2 to 3 weeks.

Saudis currently  have 3 full VLCC tankers sitting off port in the GOM with nowhere to unload and store.  Where does the additional 40mm bbls go ?  

All these tankers were bought during Febs contract, that's what they have futures. Get over the tankers already, the oil will be resold if required it won't get junked its not WTI.

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On 4/24/2020 at 8:37 AM, BLA said:

OPEC is just doing what they said they were going to do at the 2018 OPEC sponsored dinner, that was .  .  .  destroy independent U.S. shale producers. 

The surprising part is Trump is perfectly fine with that. 

What makes u think DT has a choice? He has a poor hand to deal with, but is making the most of it, just like every other leader of producing nations. He has to crush SOMEONE? He has chozen Putin (before that, Iran + Venezuela), and I think he has made the right choice, especially when you add LNG into the equation. That is where the real story lies. Permian oil wells only cost a cpl 100bn, global LNG plants over a trillion. I agree with Mr "think b4 you type"!

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(edited)

On 4/25/2020 at 12:22 AM, nsdp said:

The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

KSA external debt = $212 Billion
UAE external debt = $239 Billion
Kuwait external debt = $48 Billion

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau/
KSA imports = $96 Billion / year

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/are/
UAE imports = $175 Billion / year

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/kwt/
Kuwait imports = $33 Billion / year

How will the middle-east eat when there is no oil revenue?  They will spend their US dollars to buy US food.
https://humboldt.global/top-agricultural-exporters/

US food exports are $150 Billion / year

Edited by Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas

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On 4/24/2020 at 4:22 PM, nsdp said:

The tunnel vision here is simply astounding.  KSA, UAE and Kuwaiti SWFs hold about $2 trillion in US debt with 6 months or less to maturity.  What happens if they refuse to roll it over weeks before the election?  Who is in a world of hurt then?  Do we go to the polls during another Bank Holiday like 1933?

I'm not a financial expert, but I get the impression the US is capable of purchasing trillions of its own debt for any reason at all.  If so, doubt the KSA would have much leverage.  IIRC, @Jan van Eck once responded to similar comments about China owning US debt.  Jan, can you enlighten us on how this actually works - or at least point us to a resource that can explain it? 

On that note, suppose the KSA begins to go bankrupt.  Would they not begin raising cash?  Could the US pick up refineries, chemical plants, and other real assets at a discount and then use the proceeds from those real assets to compensate for any losses the KSA could inflict?  Again, I'm not an expert in this.  Just spitballing. 

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I have to wonder what most off the posters here are smoking. Panama Red or Columbia Gold?

1.  KSA's tankers don't have to dock anywhere. This outfit in the Woodlands has been taking care of that problem for KSA since about 2003. https://lightering.com/ Take off half of the cargo and then the ULCC can enter the Beaumont-Port Arthur channel and finish unloading.

2.KSA never pays rack rate for anything in the patch. Price gouging them is not an option. So figure the shipping companies are taking less than quoted rates.  Don't play nice and you wind up like Comrade Vladi.  He got kneecapped.  Surgery to remove his foot from his mouth tomorrow.   People forget what KSA did to Iran in 1985.  KSA takes a long view  10 years+ on their moves.

3. KSA can make up the 3 million/day  Mexico just cancelled  or they have the storage for all 40 million barrels on site.

4. the Tankers charterd  are Aframax ULCC 's about twice the size of a  Suez Max VLCC

BLA you must be smoking some of the Saigon Enhanced Reefers. 95% pure powder.

     

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4 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I'm not a financial expert, but I get the impression the US is capable of purchasing trillions of its own debt for any reason at all.  If so, doubt the KSA would have much leverage.  IIRC, @Jan van Eck once responded to similar comments about China owning US debt.  Jan, can you enlighten us on how this actually works - or at least point us to a resource that can explain it? 

On that note, suppose the KSA begins to go bankrupt.  Would they not begin raising cash?  Could the US pick up refineries, chemical plants, and other real assets at a discount and then use the proceeds from those real assets to compensate for any losses the KSA could inflict?  Again, I'm not an expert in this.  Just spitballing. 

You are definitely not a financial expert.  The problem is like a run on a bank to withdraw  cash and the bank doesn't have enough cash on hand.    The US government can print money but then you have a mess like Germany in 1923. 2 billion marks for a loaf of bread.

The US economy would go bankrupt due to hyperflation (think Mexico 1991-92) before KSA goes bankrupt.

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5 hours ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

KSA external debt = $212 Billion
UAE external debt = $239 Billion
Kuwait external debt = $48 Billion

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sau/
KSA imports = $96 Billion / year

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/are/
UAE imports = $175 Billion / year

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/kwt/
Kuwait imports = $33 Billion / year

How will the middle-east eat when there is no oil revenue?  They will spend their US dollars to buy US food.
https://humboldt.global/top-agricultural-exporters/

US food exports are $150 Billion / year

 Reprice your farm exports $3.28/bushel for corn, $4.16 for Wheat  and $8 for soybeans. You definitely are not a farmer probably wouldn't know to watch out for  cow pies. .  The prices you quote are from the last year of the Obama admiistration. 

For Most, On-Farm Household Income Remains Negative

Net Farm Income Projected to Drop to 12-Year Low https://www.fb.org/market-intel/net-farm-income-projected-to-drop-to-12-year-low

Are you a Farm Bureau member ? I am.

If I saw correctly KSA is number 35 on debt burden vs.#2 for the US

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14 hours ago, nsdp said:

You are definitely not a financial expert.  The problem is like a run on a bank to withdraw  cash and the bank doesn't have enough cash on hand.    The US government can print money but then you have a mess like Germany in 1923. 2 billion marks for a loaf of bread.

The US economy would go bankrupt due to hyperflation (think Mexico 1991-92) before KSA goes bankrupt.

I have heard that America "always does the right thing, once all other options have been exhausted". And yet, I am not so sure there will ever be appropriate austerity measures. Indeed, both sides of politics dead against that? GOP would rather do away with all welfare and go Laissez Faire, Dems would give you MMT = hyperinflation. Either way, your country goes to the dogs?

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On 4/26/2020 at 3:50 PM, Wombat said:

Yep, and flick a match on it to reduce environmental pollution. Been saying that for a while?

You think that you can ignite crude with a match?

You truly are the smartest man on the planet.

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15 hours ago, nsdp said:

 Reprice your farm exports $3.28/bushel for corn, $4.16 for Wheat  and $8 for soybeans. You definitely are not a farmer probably wouldn't know to watch out for  cow pies. .  The prices you quote are from the last year of the Obama admiistration. 

For Most, On-Farm Household Income Remains Negative

Net Farm Income Projected to Drop to 12-Year Low https://www.fb.org/market-intel/net-farm-income-projected-to-drop-to-12-year-low

Are you a Farm Bureau member ? I am.

If I saw correctly KSA is number 35 on debt burden vs.#2 for the US

The data I gave you contained a numerical error, but you failed to notice it.
Obviously you know nothing about this topic.
You know nothing about middle east food imports nor US food exports.
It's entertaining to watch trolls spew out BS and use all sorts of fallacies to make a point.
Which "farm bureau" are you a member of?
In Beijing?  in Tehran?  or in Moscow?

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(edited)

5 hours ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

The data I gave you contained a numerical error, but you failed to notice it.
Obviously you know nothing about this topic.
You know nothing about middle east food imports nor US food exports.
It's entertaining to watch trolls spew out BS and use all sorts of fallacies to make a point.
Which "farm bureau" are you a member of?
In Beijing?  in Tehran?  or in Moscow?

Texas Farm bureau.  I know enough to know that KSA is the  19th largest US export market . 

KSA imports $ 454million in meat , poultry and dairy products and  $1 billion in other food products  from worldwide sources.   Their current Holdings of US treasuries will feed every one for about 1000 years as long as the dollar holds up.

Edited by nsdp

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(edited)

3 hours ago, nsdp said:

Texas Farm bureau.  I know enough to know that KSA is the  19th largest US export market . 

KSA imports $ 454million in meat , poultry and dairy products and  $1 billion in other food products  from worldwide sources.   Their current Holdings of US treasuries will feed every one for about 1000 years as long as the dollar holds up.

If you actually were an expert in US agriculture, you would have noticed that I greatly overstated US agriculture exports.

The most recent data shows $107 Billion /year in US agriculture exports (not the $150 Billion/year I claimed).

https://knoema.com/aulndse/the-world-s-leading-exporters-of-agricultural-products

Why does someone who works at the "Texas Farm burea" post comments on oilprice.com ??
How/Why did you become an expert on the middle east and on Germany in 1923?

Edited by Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas

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