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Saudis may re-route oil currently on its way to United States

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don't give a fk where saudi takes their tankers ..we are over supplied cuts are coming..so are good times..

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I do not think there is enough storage space left in Rotterdam for all the VLCC's. It will have to remain on the oceans. We need to see lower output, not prices. If it is just about marketshare between SA and Russia. The worst has yet to come. It will not be SA to surrender this time.

They feel treated very badly and see this low low oil prices economically as a pain, but in the log term they will get back:

- OPEC respected

- Russia pays respect

- SA will be a country with"power and status"

- low priced purchased stocks, indirect marketshare, form energy companies in Europe and the US.

Short term financial hurt, long term power.

 

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37 minutes ago, oilexpert.nl said:

I do not think there is enough storage space left in Rotterdam for all the VLCC's. It will have to remain on the oceans. We need to see lower output, not prices. If it is just about marketshare between SA and Russia. The worst has yet to come. It will not be SA to surrender this time.

They feel treated very badly and see this low low oil prices economically as a pain, but in the log term they will get back:

- OPEC respected

- Russia pays respect

- SA will be a country with"power and status"

- low priced purchased stocks, indirect marketshare, form energy companies in Europe and the US.

Short term financial hurt, long term power.

 

The Saudi oil Cash Cow is dead.  

Prices will rebound this Fall , maybe late summer.  

Saudis/OPEC will never totally regain the pricing power they once controlled.

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Question for all of you saying Stop the Saudi Oil - without the Saudi sour crudes how are you going to make enough diesel to keep trucks running?  You can't make much diesel from WTI...

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1 minute ago, RSD said:

Question for all of you saying Stop the Saudi Oil - without the Saudi sour crudes how are you going to make enough diesel to keep trucks running?  You can't make much diesel from WTI...

It's my understanding that WTI is the right input, it's 38-42 api which is what refiners need.  The LTO is where you don't get as much diesel on a single stream input to a simple refinery.  If you have a more complex refinery and blend it with the heavier oils which don't just come from KSA, then you get a 38-42 api stream and that is what they do at Cushing as I understand it.  They blend the heavy Canadian with the ligher LTO to get the oil to meet spec.

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18 minutes ago, wrs said:

It's my understanding that WTI is the right input, it's 38-42 api which is what refiners need.  The LTO is where you don't get as much diesel on a single stream input to a simple refinery.  If you have a more complex refinery and blend it with the heavier oils which don't just come from KSA, then you get a 38-42 api stream and that is what they do at Cushing as I understand it.  They blend the heavy Canadian with the ligher LTO to get the oil to meet spec.

I'll have to dig out my notes, from memory Permian oil wasn't that great for producing volumes of diesel, blending with Canadian heavy is a common workaround but there is are practical limits as to how much Canadian oil can be moved - certainly not enough to meet demand for heavy crudes in times of normal demand, Venezuala used to be a steady source of heavy crude to the U.S. but we all know what happened to that...

I sure timed my retirement in February very well or otherwise my phone would have been ringing day and night non-stop with everyone wanting to give me my opinion on the current situation...

At the end of the day though...

  • the U.S. made a complete mess of dealing with COVID-19 which lead to the dramatically reduced demand for WTI - no other major oil producing country consumes as much of its own demand as the U.S. does
  • the oil storages have been filling up before the Saudi tankers discharge so clearly the U.S. is overproducing at the moment
  • the U.S. isn't anywhere near to matching the production reduction commitments of the Saudis and Russians so don't expect any sympathy from the Saudis until U.S. production has fallen by 4 million barrels - take any action against the Saudis before that production reduction target is reached and the Saudis will walk away from the production cuts...

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(edited)

25 minutes ago, RSD said:

I'll have to dig out my notes, from memory Permian oil wasn't that great for producing volumes of diesel, blending with Canadian heavy is a common workaround but there is are practical limits as to how much Canadian oil can be moved - certainly not enough to meet demand for heavy crudes in times of normal demand, Venezuala used to be a steady source of heavy crude to the U.S. but we all know what happened to that...

I sure timed my retirement in February very well or otherwise my phone would have been ringing day and night non-stop with everyone wanting to give me my opinion on the current situation...

At the end of the day though...

  • the U.S. made a complete mess of dealing with COVID-19 which lead to the dramatically reduced demand for WTI - no other major oil producing country consumes as much of its own demand as the U.S. does
  • the oil storages have been filling up before the Saudi tankers discharge so clearly the U.S. is overproducing at the moment
  • the U.S. isn't anywhere near to matching the production reduction commitments of the Saudis and Russians so don't expect any sympathy from the Saudis until U.S. production has fallen by 4 million barrels - take any action against the Saudis before that production reduction target is reached and the Saudis will walk away from the production cuts...

What a crock of .   .   .  

Goldman Sach's Currie est. 2mm bbls shale production already dropped.  He said that probably doubles by time storage fills in June.  

OPEC lies

Aramco lies

Saudis lie

 

Celebrate the U.S. production drop while you can.  It won't last forever.  

PS if you don't mind me asking  .  .  .  how much Aramco stock did you buy ?

When lockup comes off in June are you holding ? 

Edited by BLA
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4 minutes ago, BLA said:

What a crock of .   .   .  

API eat. 2mm bbls production already dropped.  Said probably doubles by time storage fills in June.  

OPEC lies

Aramco lies

Saudis lie

MBS lies

Russia lies

Everyone lies 

China lies about covid 

None of these three liars are held accountable.

Celebrate the U.S. production drop while you can.  It won't last forever.  

PS Of you don't mind me asking  .  .  .  how much Aramco stock did you buy ?

OK so 2 million barrels down, 2 million to go - probably by June.  Worldwide demand should be starting to recover slightly by then...

You forgot "Trump lies" - remember "15 cases and it will just disappear"...

I didn't buy any Aramco stock - would probably not have been allowed to when the IPO happened because of insider trading rules etc.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, RSD said:

I'll have to dig out my notes, from memory Permian oil wasn't that great for producing volumes of diesel, blending with Canadian heavy is a common workaround but there is are practical limits as to how much Canadian oil can be moved - certainly not enough to meet demand for heavy crudes in times of normal demand, Venezuala used to be a steady source of heavy crude to the U.S. but we all know what happened to that...

I sure timed my retirement in February very well or otherwise my phone would have been ringing day and night non-stop with everyone wanting to give me my opinion on the current situation...

At the end of the day though...

  • the U.S. made a complete mess of dealing with COVID-19 which lead to the dramatically reduced demand for WTI - no other major oil producing country consumes as much of its own demand as the U.S. does
  • the oil storages have been filling up before the Saudi tankers discharge so clearly the U.S. is overproducing at the moment
  • the U.S. isn't anywhere near to matching the production reduction commitments of the Saudis and Russians so don't expect any sympathy from the Saudis until U.S. production has fallen by 4 million barrels - take any action against the Saudis before that production reduction target is reached and the Saudis will walk away from the production cuts...

Well the EIA reports show typically 3-3.5mmbbl/day from Canada.  I think it dropped below 3mmbbl/day back in 2017 when they had the forest fires but I don't see why that isn't sufficient to meet the mixing needs of the refineries.  I think Canadian has replaced the Venezuelan for the most part.  

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6 hours ago, oilexpert.nl said:

I do not think there is enough storage space left in Rotterdam for all the VLCC's. It will have to remain on the oceans. We need to see lower output, not prices. If it is just about marketshare between SA and Russia. The worst has yet to come. It will not be SA to surrender this time.

They feel treated very badly and see this low low oil prices economically as a pain, but in the log term they will get back:

- OPEC respected

- Russia pays respect

- SA will be a country with"power and status"

- low priced purchased stocks, indirect marketshare, form energy companies in Europe and the US.

Short term financial hurt, long term power.

 

If they are not very careful, it won’t be respect they get, but hatred and anger from every producing country whose economy they destroyed.

China, due to the virus, and Saudi Arabia, due to this ‘price war’ are about to become pariah nations similar to North Korea.

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You would think that sweet crude from U.S. shale producers would have an advantage over sour crude from Saudi Arabia.  However, we are living in very strange times.

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(edited)

4 hours ago, RSD said:

OK so 2 million barrels down, 2 million to go - probably by June.  Worldwide demand should be starting to recover slightly by then...

by then . . .  The world storage will be full.  Going to take a while to unload the tanker storage first and the land storage.  

Shutdowns will accelerate on June.

Quote

You forgot "Trump lies" - remember "15 cases and it will just disappear"...

Well its really only a lie if the person knowingly states a falsehood.  Trump lies just come out of his mouth uncontrolled and without premeditation.

No, I don't remember the 15 cases.

Quote

I didn't buy any Aramco stock - would probably not have been allowed to when the IPO happened because of insider trading rules etc.

What ? You said you just retired in February.  The IPO came out last December. 

Insider trading ? What a stupid statement. 

You just exposed yourself on all counts.

You are not a former Aramco employee.  Just some hack bot or troll.  

 

 

Quote

 

 

 

Edited by BLA
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2 hours ago, BLA said:

by then . . .  The world storage will be full.  Going to take a while to unload the tanker storage first and the land storage.  

Shutdowns will accelerate on June.

Well its really only a lie if the person knowingly states a falsehood.  Trump lies just come out of his mouth uncontrolled and without premeditation.

No, I don't remember the 15 cases.

What ? You said you just retired in February.  The IPO came out last December. 

Insider trading ? What a stupid statement. 

You just exposed yourself on all counts.

You are not a former Aramco employee.  Just some hack bot or troll.  

 

 

 

You're talking to a troll. Basement dwelling oil besr trolls.

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6 hours ago, RSD said:

You forgot "Trump lies" - remember "15 cases and it will just disappear"...

 

That was a mistake, not a lie.

That was based on WHO and Emperor Xi's personal assurances, which WERE actual lies about limited transmission. Advisers to the vast majority of the Western governments  were not alarmed till the Oxford report by Nial Fergusson, which turned out to be junk that was worse than the "nothing going" mistake. And was the justification for the entirely irrational lock downs. The lockdowns are like curing a headache by chopping off your head .

 

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"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

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9 hours ago, RSD said:

Question for all of you saying Stop the Saudi Oil - without the Saudi sour crudes how are you going to make enough diesel to keep trucks running?  You can't make much diesel from WTI...

Simon Watkins agrees with you: "Second, there is also the fact that Saudi currently provides one of the few large-scale sources of sour crude (including the benchmark Arab Heavy) that is available to the U.S., which is essential to its production of diesel, and to which purpose WTI is less suited ... and Canada’s pipeline capacity to the U.S. not able to handle any more more exports south until the long-delayed Keystone pipeline is up and running at some point in 2023."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Could-Use-Nuclear-Option-To-Make-Saudi-Arabia-Pay-For-Oil-War.html

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Yet another article saying that the U.S. can't make diesel with its own oil:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Death-Of-US-Oil.html

"Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this."

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24 minutes ago, pisstol said:

Yet another article saying that the U.S. can't make diesel with its own oil:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Death-Of-US-Oil.html

"Most U.S. refineries require intermediate and heavy crude oil that must be imported. Few U.S. grades of oil can be used to produce diesel without blending them with imported oil. That is because they are too light to contain the organic compounds need to make diesel. Redesigning refineries will not change this."

Most of the heavy crude comes from Canada. Last year imports from Canada were 8x those from Saudi, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htm

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10 hours ago, BLA said:

What ? You said you just retired in February.  The IPO came out last December. 

Insider trading ? What a stupid statement. 

You just exposed yourself on all counts.

You are not a former Aramco employee.  Just some hack bot or troll.  

IPO last December means that I was still an employee and very much had access to inside information - right up until February when I retired.

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On 4/22/2020 at 12:39 PM, Thisa GuyOkay said:

Counter move - Saudis could close their 600k BBL/D refinery in Port A

And then the government could order it to reopen if it was required.

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21 minutes ago, ezdoggydog said:

And then the government could order it to reopen if it was required.

And then I'm sure the refinery would suffer "an unexpected outage"

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My family and many other families in the US have been subjected to this “boom or bust” ideology for several generations. OPEC/Oil Cartel has left the US/World economy in absolute ruin multiple times. There is no balance of power that can control them. They have absolute control over the world’s economy. In my opinion, OPEC/Oil Cartel have in many ways engaged in terroristic type behavior and mafia style business tactics. Actions the US should take:  Boycott all foreign oil imports into the US or impose enormous tariffs. Pull all US military support to the Middle East. Cut off all foreign aid to OPEC nations. Impose blockades over all OPEC nations ability to deliver oil to nations that are US allies. Will this happen? A resounding NO! 

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51 minutes ago, Name is Mud said:

My family and many other families in the US have been subjected to this “boom or bust” ideology for several generations. OPEC/Oil Cartel has left the US/World economy in absolute ruin multiple times. There is no balance of power that can control them. They have absolute control over the world’s economy. In my opinion, OPEC/Oil Cartel have in many ways engaged in terroristic type behavior and mafia style business tactics. Actions the US should take:  Boycott all foreign oil imports into the US or impose enormous tariffs. Pull all US military support to the Middle East. Cut off all foreign aid to OPEC nations. Impose blockades over all OPEC nations ability to deliver oil to nations that are US allies. Will this happen? A resounding NO! 

The military industrial complex is making far too much money to allow the US to pull out of the middle east. If we impose blockades on our allies they will cease to be allies.

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The military industrial complex is making far too much money to allow the US to pull out of the middle east. If we impose blockades on our allies they will cease to be allies.

No blockade needed.

Just bring the troops home from Middle East.  That's all you need. 

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