Bob_W + 37 BW April 22, 2020 (edited) The article headline reads, U.S. Shale Braces For Largest Ever Drop In Fracking Activity. And yet Halliburton stock is up 17% over five days, up 9% today. What in the heck are people thinking? Edited April 22, 2020 by Bob_W 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wrs + 893 WS April 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bob_W said: The article headline reads, U.S. Shale Braces For Largest Ever Drop In Fracking Activity. And yet Halliburton stock is up 17% over five days, up 9% today. What in the heck are people thinking? That HAL was $25 in Dec and $50 in May 2018. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob_W + 37 BW April 22, 2020 And under $5 last month. It's one of the companies I've been watching, considering whether they're large enough and diversified enough to likely not go extinct. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wrs + 893 WS April 22, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Bob_W said: And under $5 last month. It's one of the companies I've been watching, considering whether they're large enough and diversified enough to likely not go extinct. They have been a falling knife. I have traded in and out of it since summer 2018 and I lost some on my initial position, about $8k but I made it all back by just waiting until it was under $20 and buying back in. I sold at $24 in Dec and made up those losses and then some. My independent uses them for fracking and I believe drilling crews for his wells. They are also a silent partner with him in some of the wells. He has shut all of his production in which amounts to about 30kbbl/day. I don't think HAL is going to see a V shaped recovery in fracking but they might do well in services when the shutins start opening up. They offer a lot of the services needed to restart wells after shutin but that is probably another quarter down the road. We agreed to be shut in until WTI has been over $35 for 60 days. You can guess how long you think that will take. Edited April 22, 2020 by wrs 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BillKidd + 139 BK April 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob_W said: And under $5 last month. It's one of the companies I've been watching, considering whether they're large enough and diversified enough to likely not go extinct. I read something this morning... some guru was recommending Schlumberger, saying they are the biggest service company and would survive. It's hard to imagine Halliburton going out. I just looked it up... Sclumberger is three times the market cap of Halliburton, that surprises me. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob_W + 37 BW April 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, BillKidd said: I read something this morning... some guru was recommending Schlumberger, saying they are the biggest service company and would survive. It's hard to imagine Halliburton going out. I just looked it up... Sclumberger is three times the market cap of Halliburton, that surprises me. Schlumberger happens to be the second company I'm watching. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob_W + 37 BW April 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, wrs said: We agreed to be shut in until WTI has been over $35 for 60 days. You can guess how long you think that will take. As demand spikes soon with lifted restrictions and continues to inch up, and as the surplus is burned off... September? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ericfranklin@kw.com + 2 EF April 22, 2020 Why are investors running into stocks like Apache, Diamondback, Devon, etc. while we are in the worst crisis we've ever seen? Is there some rationale that I'm missing? 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob_W + 37 BW April 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, ericfranklin@kw.com said: Why are investors running into stocks like Apache, Diamondback, Devon, etc. while we are in the worst crisis we've ever seen? Is there some rationale that I'm missing? Gambling, I figure. Potential upside vs likelihood of bankruptcy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ericfranklin@kw.com + 2 EF April 22, 2020 Thanks Bob, I guess the herd doesn't know what lies shortly ahead? Laying over rigs, production curtailment, lack of storage, layoffs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gerry Maddoux + 3,627 GM April 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, ericfranklin@kw.com said: Why are investors running into stocks like Apache, Diamondback, Devon, etc. while we are in the worst crisis we've ever seen? Is there some rationale that I'm missing? Since Heck was a pup, if you moved into oil stocks that had been hammered into the dirt, you made out. Well, that was then. Lots of these young kids (30-35) have never seen a total splat on Wall Street and certainly not in oil (not to this degree), so they don't realize that there is a splat and then there's a SPLAT! 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ericfranklin@kw.com + 2 EF April 22, 2020 There is no correlation it seems between the commodity and the E & P companies like those I mentioned, I'm just curious? Would like to hear any thoughts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob_W + 37 BW April 23, 2020 17 hours ago, ericfranklin@kw.com said: There is no correlation it seems between the commodity and the E & P companies like those I mentioned, I'm just curious? Would like to hear any thoughts. Those stock prices seem to trend up and down, in general over time, with the price of oil. But with oil worth $0 and dividends being cut, I cannot justify the rising stock prices other than: Speculative value assuming two things: the companies and overall economy quickly return to 'normal'; the stocks won't take another dive between now and then. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 April 23, 2020 Look, guys, the future is not the present. The lack of fracking now means less oil coming out of the ground next month if not yet this one (I estimate output is already down this month). Storage would obviously be full where the biggest production and consumption are when much economic activity is shut down. The negative prices were the signal to the markets that all Cushing storage was full up. Go find somewhere else to stock your oil. Tsakos energy navigation CEO on Bloomberg estimated about 1 billion Bbl of tanker capacity was out there. Rates of $120k spot, $80k on year term contracts for his VLCCs. It will fill up quick, but it is Saudi that is pushing the oil to clog up Russian markets in an attempt to produce as low a price there as they can. Negative would be good for them, They don't have to sell the oil, they have the option of keeping it afloat. Targets are NE Asia and NW Europe and the Mediterranean. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cbrasher1 + 272 CB April 23, 2020 ya don't say? 😂 we finished up our 2 pads last Saturday for Oxy, I believe they are shut down for now. One of the Halliburton supervisors said they had I think 13 crews still going, but as they finished they'd be put on the shelf for another day. in 10 days last week they would have maybe 2 or 3 still going. don't get in the boat if ya aren't prepared for the wild ride called oilfield life. I came home this past Saturday, having a little me time after 4 months straight. I was told still had a job, come back in a week, but that was before the freefall, but haven't heard anything, so maybe no news is good news! 😂🤷♂️ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
surrept33 + 609 st April 23, 2020 On 4/22/2020 at 3:41 PM, ericfranklin@kw.com said: Why are investors running into stocks like Apache, Diamondback, Devon, etc. while we are in the worst crisis we've ever seen? Is there some rationale that I'm missing? Because of price. It's why people will buy say, distressed debt, if the price is right. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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