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16 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Fine. I take it then that my argument is so sound that you can't find a flaw and that you are only believing what it's comforting to believe rather than thinking for yourself.

That's fine. On your way, then.

You can take it any way you want to, Geoff.  You always do.

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4 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

In the UK this is now becoming very apparent, on average something like 30,000 new cancers get picked up each month and in the month of April than number has falled to around 5000 so there are potentially 25,000 people out there who have not been diagnosed and are not going to get treatment for sometime and as we all know early detection is vital for survival rates.

As you know, from the beginning I've been after governments, particularly the clowns we take for Tories, for refusing to take this seriously and putting us in a position where we ended up in a lockdown. This lockdown is because of ineptitude, not because anyone wanted it.

That being said, the seven days to 10th of April, we had 8,000 excess deaths in the UK. The following 7 days it will be worse. That gives us 34,750 excess deaths per month in a week where deaths we still accelerating. The only reason it's not worse is because we locked down in March.

The UK is in an even worse state than the US in that we still can't get people tested here and there are claims that the tests we do have are substandard. The government hasn't put any effort into test, trace and isolate. No plan has been put forward about how to open the country up without killing thousands more people. You can trust Piers Morgan on that one.

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11 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

You don't go to the New York Times for your medical advice?

Shame on you ūüėā

I'm not a real Doctor, but I............you know the drill.

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2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:
2 hours ago, El Nikko said:

You don't go to the New York Times for your medical advice?

Shame on you ūüėā

I'm not a real Doctor, but I............you know the drill.

You also realise that you don't go to a clinical doctor for advice that requires information from a research epidemiologist. This isn't medical advice.

Appeal to authority, like you are doing here, is a refusal to think for yourself. I watch people on this board whinge about MSM and then quote whatever blog, youtube video, or Fox News like it was gospel.

The math that I showed here is simple. My 9-year-old is learning close to this level of math in school. Yet no one seems to be able to understand that this level of math is all you need to understand the level of danger and have a reasonable discussion about how and when to get the country working rather than toeing the Fox line.

The math is easy and the data is easily sourced. Tell me how I'm wrong, accept that I'm right, or go back to worshiping the authorities. It's your decision.

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(edited)

In NY ,Italia, Spain,UK, France... when the number of ICU needed  is overflown, if a person  tested have both influenza and Covid19, how do you they know which one kill him? Similarly a person have heart attack and then contracts Covid19 and die, of course he has Covid19 tested on him it didn't have time to destroy him yet. I doubt separation reasons of death is that simple. All they can do is to fast test on the the dead bodies or doctors make a call for that case.

How many people die in NY hospital per day now? Break down in reason of death this year or compares to before Covid 19 years and this year in the same time frame will give more accurate understanding. From what I know the reason of deaths now is up to the doctors to decide or by fast test kit. Meaning we just see the number of deaths normal + because of Covid19 but we thought all Covid19 death number.

In the other hand we haven't seen much doctors and nurses die as much like this in other disease.

So Covid19 maybe  dangerous if we contracted from very high viral load environment like hospitals,train etc, but the death number of Covid19  is inflated for sure. If the hospital viral load is toxic enough, any patent need ICU have a high chance of contracting very high viral load and die. It may explain why Germany,Taiwan,NZ, Australia etc can have Covid19 death number low, they have enough tests and ICU capacity to separate Covid19 and non Covid19 ICU patients  at the beginning so they can save more people non Covid19 in ICU and have a non inflated number for Covid19. And if the number of Covid19 are low, then the Hospital environment are not that toxic.

So the key is still avoid high level load with even a normal mask and don't do public gathering and starts working with jobs that can do social distance.

It is a waste of time to argue citing from Fox vs CNN, both sides may not give a full story.

Edited by SUZNV

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1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

You also realise that you don't go to a clinical doctor for advice that requires information from a research epidemiologist. This isn't medical advice.

Appeal to authority, like you are doing here, is a refusal to think for yourself. I watch people on this board whinge about MSM and then quote whatever blog, youtube video, or Fox News like it was gospel.

The math that I showed here is simple. My 9-year-old is learning close to this level of math in school. Yet no one seems to be able to understand that this level of math is all you need to understand the level of danger and have a reasonable discussion about how and when to get the country working rather than toeing the Fox line.

The math is easy and the data is easily sourced. Tell me how I'm wrong, accept that I'm right, or go back to worshiping the authorities. It's your decision.

You are wrong, you didn't even make any sense there at all.

I don't worship any authorities and as much as it will hurt you to know.... I didn't vote for the conservatives and never have in my life ;)

The peak in the UK was on the 8th of April, death toll is plummeting, beds are emptying so fast they are begging people to come back to hospital. This was just another nasty flu type epidemic that killed off the most vulnerable people and that was helped along by the revolting decisions made by government, beurocrats and the scum that claim to be managers of the NHS.

I was told by my nephew (who is a doctor) weeks ago that the NHS were planning to not treat the most vulnerable and thats pretty much what happened, they emptied the beds and sent them to care homes (some with CV-19) where it spread and killed so many people. They did that because they assumed there was going to be a massive influx of patients and that never happened.

Can you see the peak?

27563874-8249635-image-a-36_1587659280401.jpg

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10 hours ago, James Regan said:

This is the main driver, it almost reads like a playbook for the Democratic offensive line, holy shite he must be a huge threat after three years of hearings, findings and impeachment and now even biblical proportioned calamities hasn't worked, its only made him stronger, He called Coumo early out on over acting but Joker card was played well by CC, no-one would argue with what might happen, but looks like DT will walk through this again Teflon Don......

 

4 hours ago, El Nikko said:

You don't go to the New York Times for your medical advice?

Shame on you ūüėā

Except, the info from the CDC, NIH and the White House Coronavirus task force is aligned with most of the media. The problem on this site,as always, tends to focus on the mortality rate as opposed to hospital and ICU admission rate. 

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Just now, Ron Ron said:

 

Except, the info from the CDC, NIH and the White House Coronavirus task force is aligned with most of the media. The problem on this site,as always, tends to focus on the mortality rate as opposed to hospital and ICU admission rate. 

I've just posted a graph which shows the hospital bed usage due to CV-19 and I do agree death rate and new infections is probably the wrong data to look at...the lock-down was to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed which they were not, we achieved 'flatten the curve' even though it may not have been due to lock down so why the hell are we still locked in our houses???

Here's another graph from the UK...ICU beds never got close to max capacity and are dropping...hospitals are dead no one will go there because they have been terrified into thinking they are full of infectious people. We built new hospitals and they are also empty, the 750k 'army of NHS volunteers never materialised and now we're subjected to videos of NHS staff messing about while people with very serious life threatening conditions are dying and no one seems to care.

Here's another graph

 

27563528-8249635-image-a-52_1587658666036.jpg

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1 hour ago, SUZNV said:

How many people die in NY hospital per day now? Break down in reason of death this year or compares to before Covid 19 years and this year in the same time frame will give more accurate understanding.

No worries, it's just like the flu . . . 

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Excess Deaths in NYC.png

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3 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

No worries, it's just like the flu . . . 

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Excess Deaths in NYC.png

Would you kindly present your 'graph' over a wider range of data...say the last 50 or 100 years?

Maybe the authors are hiding other bumps and blips along the way

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11 hours ago, James Regan said:

This is the main driver, it almost reads like a playbook for the Democratic offensive line, holy shite he must be a huge threat after three years of hearings, findings and impeachment and now even biblical proportioned calamities hasn't worked, its only made him stronger, He called Coumo early out on over acting but Joker card was played well by CC, no-one would argue with what might happen, but looks like DT will walk through this again Teflon Don......

Obviously. and just like they have used this issue to destroy the economy in an attempt to blame Trump, he will force their governors to open or face their Democratic machine being gutted along with the state pension systems and state employees and their unions. 

However, the Democratic message has misfired. Now it is interpreted as big cities are death traps, rush out to work in the boonies, go and live there. Democratic cities and states are police states with arbitrary law. Guess what, those are not Democratic areas. People there are used to self reliance and direct community participation rather than through intermediation, and rely on reputation rather than authority. All things that counter Democratic power mechanisms.

Trump, in a second term would be able to finish emptying out the appeals courts of the desiccated remains of Democratic nominations to stuff it to over 50% republican ones. He would have a handle on the revolving door between the Dems, their favored business partners, the internal power structures of the Justice department and the CIA and monopoly media. 

Trump's core supporters will show up to vote. Dem's core will be steaming at their leaders for the loss of their jobs, the death of their relatives who got no medical treatment unless they had CV19, and the general hard handed thuggery of the Dem governors. I am not sure they get reelected. 

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Unfortunately, the linked material is full of inaccurate, obsolete and refuted claims - as any document that calls itself "a truth" (religions work that way, not science - science works with more or less accurate data and models, not "truths"). 

The document absolutely does not take into account recent documented cases where patients suffered from enormous and still unexplained blood clotting in various organs including brain:

https://www.medicinenet.com/blood_clots_a_dangerous_covid-19_mystery-news.htm

Also, there is increasing number of documented pediatric and young adult patients who do not have typical symptoms of respiratory diseases (cough, fever, sore throat), but suddenly collapse from multiple organ failures. 

The fact is that the full capabilities of the virus are still not understood and known, it's also not known how contagious it really is, how many patients are subclinical and why, whether it is possible to even acquire functional antibodies and for how long, etc. So jumping to premature conclusions, like we see in the linked document, is both irresponsible and dangerous. The author did not even state his area of expertise, preferring to list just "MD" and there may be a good reason for that. 

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(edited)

Re:  El Nikko and Suznv,

Similar graphs for the total US and various countries are posted on the first page.  The overall total mortality all-cause death rate for the US is about 0.8%/year, which if applied to NYC, works out to about 1,200 per day, with minor some seasonal variations--which is what the NYC graph shows.  Note the minor seasonal blips during the winter months, corresponding to the flu season. 

Just the facts.  

 

Edited by Jeffrey Brown

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Here's the US graph.  Note that I think that the shaded area corresponds to the observed maximum and minimum values. 

Excess Deaths in the US.png

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10 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

No worries, it's just like the flu . . . 

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Excess Deaths in NYC.png

This is a result of the lockdown. Not CV19. Cancer treatments are not happening. People don't see their doctors. Small problems that require medical care are ignored because of media inspired fear of going to an Urgent care or emergency room, resulting in unnecessary deaths. Those are deaths due to the lockdown, the CV19 deaths are counted as such regardless of cause of death. The death numbers are at least double the actual ones calculated on a back of the envelope basis. 

Recent prevalence data for NYC is showing 39% are infected in some areas. At  this point, all hospital admissions in NYC and most other locations are tested for CV19, which is how we are getting so many more cases. These people have other problems but are listed as CV19 patients. Thus CV19 deaths continue listing despite the actual number falling precipitously as are new CV19 hospitalizations. Otherwise, if we had a rational testing policy and actual cause of death attribution to C19 deaths and hospitalizations, then the stats would look like this is a small nuisance with an infection mortality rate of 0.03% as reported by Dr Edwards on the video above.. 

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2 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

Re:  El Nikko and Suznv,

Similar graphs for the total US and various countries are posted on the first page.  The overall total mortality all-cause death rate for the US is about 0.8%/year, which if applied to NYC, works out to about 1,200 per day, with minor some seasonal variations--which is what the NYC graph shows.  Just the facts.  

 

and there's the thing isn't it...new flu's come and go and do just as much if not more damage but for some reason this one has become 'special'.

Actually if you run the numbers and extrapolate the tests versus infected/have had it you will find the number to be even lower.

Why the drama? The actual mortality is basically similar to flu which as I keep saying is no joke and kills huge numbers of people every year.

Do you advocate shutting down the entire economy for some dead people when we've nver done it in human history? If so why?

Suicide rates are spiking, mental health issues are spiking, domestic violence is spiking, drug and acohol abuse no doubt...spiking and then there are the people who will die prematurely because the health service shut down and only dealt with covid-19 cases and dropped heart disease, cancer and all the rest...

 

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1 minute ago, 0R0 said:

This is a result of the lockdown. Not CV19.

Methinks you are smoking some pretty good stuff.  You might talk to some ER docs and nurses in NYC, about their patients. 

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3 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

Here's the US graph.  Note that I think that the shaded area corresponds to the observed maximum and minimum values. 

Excess Deaths in the US.png

Gee wizz we asked for a graph with a wider date range and you give us this?

I'm taking my cyanide pill right now

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(edited)

14 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

Re:  El Nikko and Suznv,

Similar graphs for the total US and various countries are posted on the first page.  The overall total mortality all-cause death rate for the US is about 0.8%/year, which if applied to NYC, works out to about 1,200 per day, with minor some seasonal variations--which is what the NYC graph shows.  Note the minor seasonal blips during the winter months, corresponding to the flu season. 

Just the facts.  

 

I can show you a lots of countries with corona virus but the death increases is not that significant. How many countries on the world have it, how is their death numebr? Why we do the cherry picking take NY as an example for the other 49 states? Can i use Norway data as a Representative for the whole Europe? I found the total in US, given its size and number of states, is very misleading. How about Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Egypts, India etc. Why using fact from that "random" samples but not any where else? NZ locked down 2 dates after UK. Or is it because they don't reflect the facts you want?

Edited by SUZNV
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(edited)

26 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

Methinks you are smoking some pretty good stuff.  You might talk to some ER docs and nurses in NYC, about their patients. 

You should do the same and ask them what the state of things is now. Nearly 40% of New Yorkers (city) are exposed, and that was the death rate, who else is there to get exposed and show up at the hospital. The active population of children parents and subway commuters etc. got it within a couple of weeks. It is a Coronavirus, one of several that cause colds that bring nearly half of us a few days of misery every year. BTW note that people who get the flu shot, 100% of them get a cold rather than 45-51% of non flu shot takers. Might be why so many of the elderly get severely ill from this virus.

 

Edited by 0R0
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30 minutes ago, Jeffrey Brown said:

Re:  El Nikko and Suznv,

Similar graphs for the total US and various countries are posted on the first page.  The overall total mortality all-cause death rate for the US is about 0.8%/year, which if applied to NYC, works out to about 1,200 per day, with minor some seasonal variations--which is what the NYC graph shows.  Note the minor seasonal blips during the winter months, corresponding to the flu season. 

Just the facts.  

Correction.  Should read:   The overall total mortality all-cause death rate for the US is about 0.8%/year, which if applied to NYC, works out to about 1,200 per WEEK.  Overall average all cause weekly deaths in the US are about 50,000 per week, a little higher of course during the flu season (see above chart). 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

As new data becomes available, we need to now adjust what we are doing as a species.  If there is a "second wave", we should not allow another lockdown, based on the data now available.  I'm still okay with the first lockdown, because we didn't have the data then.

According to worldometers.info from January 1 to April 1, 2020 the worldwide deaths from COVID-19 were 46,438 as opposed to 121,993 for influenza. To recap, during the same three months, with the same social distancing, the same shelter in place, and even handicapped with a vaccine against it, the flu still killed more than two and a half times as many people as COVID-19.

Absolutely.

If anything, we should lock away the ill and the octogenarians for 2-3 weeks, and all go to a CV19  party to kiss each other, get it over with and get back to work. (kissing party is a joke, going to work is seriously NECESSARY to avoid further deaths)

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23 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

I can show you a lots of countries with corona virus but the death increases is not that significant.

Good point.  Every country in the world except for the US quickly adopted WHO test. 

In any case, some graphs for various countries from the first page. 

Excess Deaths Globally.png

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42 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

I've just posted a graph which shows the hospital bed usage due to CV-19 and I do agree death rate and new infections is probably the wrong data to look at...the lock-down was to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed which they were not, we achieved 'flatten the curve' even though it may not have been due to lock down so why the hell are we still locked in our houses???

Here's another graph from the UK...ICU beds never got close to max capacity and are dropping...hospitals are dead no one will go there because they have been terrified into thinking they are full of infectious people. We built new hospitals and they are also empty, the 750k 'army of NHS volunteers never materialised and now we're subjected to videos of NHS staff messing about while people with very serious life threatening conditions are dying and no one seems to care.

Here's another graph

 

27563528-8249635-image-a-52_1587658666036.jpg

We certainly did over-build. Especially since they couldn't staff those hospitals anyway. That's a less expensive mistake, though, than the original herd immunity call and letting Cheltenham go ahead. 

The government's started strategy switched from flatten the curve to containment in mid-March because of the Imperial College report. So the question still stands - what is the government going to put in place so that when we reopen we don't end up with thousands more dead?

Btw, if they had implemented a lockdown 2 weeks earlier we would have had 10x fewer cases and could probably have kept many more services open. At the moment we'reat the mercy of the government to get enough into place to keep the pandemic under control. 

 

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