ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv April 30, 2020 Trump told Saudis: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support https://www.yahoo.com/news/special-report-trump-told-saudis-110522123.html 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv April 30, 2020 Saudi crude buyers cancel at least 7 supertankers after freight hike - sources LONDON, April 29 (Reuters) - U.S. buyers of Saudi Arabian crude oil cancelled at least seven April-loading tankers after a jump in freight costs, two industry sources said, likely to result in lower-than-expected shipments from the world's top exporter. The move shows how some buyers are not rushing to take much extra oil despite a slide in prices this month to below $16 a barrel, the lowest this century, as demand has collapsed due to government measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus. In March, Saudi Arabia had cut its official selling prices for April crude and vowed to boost exports after a supply cut deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and rivals like Russia collapsed. But tanker rates soared and Saudi Arabia told buyers it would cut compensation payments for freight costs because of extraordinary conditions in the freight market. Freight costs jumped globally because more ships were needed to deliver oil after Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers ramped up output after the talks to extend the OPEC-led production cut deal broke down. This killed the economics of importing the extra barrels, one source said. "U.S. refiners gave back at least seven VLCCs because the freight protection was lifted," one of the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. "If they had got the freight protection, they would have taken these barrels." Saudi state oil company Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Even after the cancellations, the volume of April-loading Saudi crude heading to the United States is still set to increase, the source said. Saudi exports to all destinations are expected to rise this month. The changes in supply terms were seen as likely to lead to cancellations of April cargoes by buyers across the world as they were not expecting to bear transport costs in full. Iraq, OPEC's second biggest producer, also informed customers it was unable to compensate for the jump in freight costs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 April 30, 2020 (edited) You guys just dont get it, stop blaming other for your own misgivings, you guys have hit shit street, and now want bailed out, whining to the President about a few oil tankers heading your way with crude you require to make diesel of what ever else it does, but fact is you need it. Even now when your on your knees grovelling to be bailed out to do what, screw it all up again. Wake up smell the bacon drink the Kool-Aid Shale got found out finally but took a biblical event to make the industry see. Its unhealthy...... Why not pull out of the region and be done with it, stop harping on about some group of Arabs you think are your friends, the ME has one enemy and you know who it is, so why are you there and still buying their oil. Edited April 30, 2020 by James Regan 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv April 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, James Regan said: You guys just dont get it, stop blaming other for your own misgivings, you guys have hit shit street, and now want bailed out, whining to the President about a few oil tankers heading your way with crude you require to make diesel of what ever else it does, but fact is you need it. Even now when your on your knees grovelling to be bailed out to do what, screw it all up again. Wake up smell the bacon drink the Kool-Aid Shale got found out finally but took a biblical event to make the industry see. Its unhealthy...... FYI, its not just shale that got found out, and is in free fall and a death spiral.. even conventional resources are too. Just watch how many small, mom and pop owned and boutique oil and gas offices and small independent producers have shut down and going out of business. I dont give a schitt about how much oil the Saudi;s are sending to the USGC or anywhere else in the world, it is whatever it is, we deal with it and as I have said before , much ado about nothing, few people whine about it, but ask the same people what are you doing about it? can you do anything meaningful? no. And it is still free trade, tariffs? embargoes? for oil? what is next? agri products? engineering and manufacturing products and goods? Cheers!!! 3 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 April 30, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said: Just watch how many small, mom and pop owned and boutique oil and gas offices and small independent producers have shut down and going out of business. Good- Mom and Pop you hit the nail on the head, boutiques upsetting the world oil economy with no control or solid fiscal plan, great business model, that's why your up Schitt street. Should have left it in the ground a bit longer, would have been the smart call. Two sided street, didn't see offshore grovelling like you guys are, you made your bed time to lie in it. Edited April 30, 2020 by James Regan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, James Regan said: Good- Mom and Pop you hit the nail on the head, boutiques upsetting the world oil economy with no control or solid fiscal plan, great business model, that's why your up Schitt street. Should have left it in the ground a bit longer, would have been the smart call. I am not up Schitt Creek, I am having a great time in the oil business, cash is king!!! some boutique oil and gas offices focused exclusively on conventional oil and gas and help grow and fund the small independents working those small leases/fields.reservoirs and marginal and mature field redevelopments. The cycle will continue on and on, till very few are left in the game including M&As by the integrated groups and companies and again boutique investors and PE and groups with cash at hand. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, ceo_energemsier said: I am not up Schitt Creek, I am having a great time in the oil business, cash is king!!! some boutique oil and gas offices focused exclusively on conventional oil and gas and help grow and fund the small independents working those small leases/fields.reservoirs and marginal and mature field redevelopments. The cycle will continue on and on, till very few are left in the game including M&As by the integrated groups and companies and again boutique investors and PE and groups with cash at hand. That makes me happy that you're set and only thinking of your country folks who may be out of a job. Hire some of the guys who are laid off to cut your grass or something, do something positive for them. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BLA + 1,666 BB April 30, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, James Regan said: That makes me happy that you're set and only thinking of your country folks who may be out of a job. Hire some of the guys who are laid off to cut your grass or something, do something positive for them. When the dust settles in two years (or sooner) and the virus is under control the United States will still be be the #1 oil producer in the world. More than MBS's Saudi Arabia or whomever replaces him. Edited May 1, 2020 by BLA 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BLA + 1,666 BB April 30, 2020 23 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said: FYI, its not just shale that got found out, and is in free fall and a death spiral.. even conventional resources are too. Just watch how many small, mom and pop owned and boutique oil and gas offices and small independent producers have shut down and going out of business. I dont give a schitt about how much oil the Saudi;s are sending to the USGC or anywhere else in the world, it is whatever it is, we deal with it and as I have said before , much ado about nothing, few people whine about it, but ask the same people what are you doing about it? can you do anything meaningful? no. And it is still free trade, tariffs? embargoes? for oil? what is next? agri products? engineering and manufacturing products and goods? Cheers!!! Keep writing I enjoy your posts. You're the best at what you do. Cheerio Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 April 30, 2020 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Mandatory-Output-Cuts-The-Only-Way-To-Save-US-Oil.html Looks Bleak....... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv April 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, James Regan said: That makes me happy that you're set and only thinking of your country folks who may be out of a job. Hire some of the guys who are laid off to cut your grass or something, do something positive for them. No, I dont need to hire my country folk to cut my grass, I live in a water challenged environment so dont need to waste water for that. I have a natural environment that sustains native flora and there is plenty of that. I hire my country folk for much more challenging and rewarding jobs based on their educational and technical skills. I am helping and trying to help my country folk in the oil and gas industry and other industries and business sectors as much as possible. Thank you for your concern. Cheers !!! 1 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 April 30, 2020 1 minute ago, ceo_energemsier said: No, I dont need to hire my country folk to cut my grass, I live in a water challenged environment so dont need to waste water for that. I have a natural environment that sustains native flora and there is plenty of that. I hire my country folk for much more challenging and rewarding jobs based on their educational and technical skills. I am helping and trying to help my country folk in the oil and gas industry and other industries and business sectors as much as possible. Thank you for your concern. Cheers !!! Cheers to you Sir, you made your play and came out on top, you have no need to whine only wine and dine, I take my hat off to you as you have made it. Sincerely James Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BLA + 1,666 BB April 30, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, James Regan said: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Mandatory-Output-Cuts-The-Only-Way-To-Save-US-Oil.html Looks Bleak....... James You should know better than to give the articles written for OP any credibility. Out of the dozen writers there are maybe two that have any idea what's going on in the U.S. oil industry. I think the price crash has brought on the long needed U.S. oil industry consolidation. That's if Trump doesn't waste U.S. taxpayers money and bail them out . Which it looks like he will. Edited May 1, 2020 by BLA 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Kramer + 696 R April 30, 2020 Gotta say ... yes theres alot of mid size oil companies and I have no idea about small unlisted companies... but having a few big companies run it all is probably not the best for the country. The top 1% getting richer. Instead of hundreds of companies with well paid top members . Say 400 companies with 10 board members or 4 companies with 10 ... rather 400 rich than 40 oprah's lol. And yes I know that the top 1% are generally using all advantages and the other 99% zombie through life . 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Otis11 + 551 ZP April 30, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, James Regan said: Good- Mom and Pop you hit the nail on the head, boutiques upsetting the world oil economy with no control or solid fiscal plan, great business model, that's why your up Schitt street. Should have left it in the ground a bit longer, would have been the smart call. Two sided street, didn't see offshore grovelling like you guys are, you made your bed time to lie in it. Not everyone in Shale is groveling... I'm actually 100% against bailouts for oil - I type from the oil patch. In Midland. 1 hour ago, ceo_energemsier said: I am not up Schitt Creek, I am having a great time in the oil business, cash is king!!! some boutique oil and gas offices focused exclusively on conventional oil and gas and help grow and fund the small independents working those small leases/fields.reservoirs and marginal and mature field redevelopments. The cycle will continue on and on, till very few are left in the game including M&As by the integrated groups and companies and again boutique investors and PE and groups with cash at hand. Good sir! Those who were prepared for the next downturn (and there's always a 'next' downturn - regardless of cause) stand to benefit greatly. Wish you the best in your endeavors! 56 minutes ago, James Regan said: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Mandatory-Output-Cuts-The-Only-Way-To-Save-US-Oil.html Looks Bleak....... No. 100% fighting the May 5th vote through every contact I have there. I know this isn't likely to be a popular opinion here, but it will be a rocky 2 years (yes, 2 years). When we come out of this, though, people are going to be absolutely shocked by what american ingenuity has accomplished in the shale patch. We've been streamlining for the last 2 years to prepare and become low cost leaders while others were 'tolerating' the 'low' prices in the $40s and $50s - and I'd bet we're not the only ones. Let the free market work. Yes, some will have to sell off their acreage, but we're maintaining our staff - not because we need them all right now, but because we'll need them to execute all that's coming. 48 minutes ago, BLA said: James You should know better than to give the articles written for OP any credibility. Out of the dozen writers there are maybe two that have any idea what's going on in the U.S. oil industry. I think the price crash only has brought on the long needed U.S. oil industry consolidation. That's if Trump doesn't waste U.S. taxpayers money and bail them out . Which it looks like he will. Pushing that bubble too - if he wants to extend emergency lines of credit, fine, sure... just make sure the government isn't funding losing bets. But 100% against bailouts for anyone in the patch. We're working with our key business partners to keep them afloat through this, even if they wouldn't otherwise make it (wish some of them had planned better), but we can float our ship, and rescue the most critical around us. Let the others fail, and let us reap our reward of buying up what remains. Not to say this is going to be easy, it's going to hurt for us too - but that's the nature of oil. If you want to play ball here - Plan for it and be prepared. /rant Edited April 30, 2020 by Otis11 1 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 April 30, 2020 39 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said: Gotta say ... yes theres alot of mid size oil companies and I have no idea about small unlisted companies... but having a few big companies run it all is probably not the best for the country. The top 1% getting richer. Instead of hundreds of companies with well paid top members . Say 400 companies with 10 board members or 4 companies with 10 ... rather 400 rich than 40 oprah's lol. And yes I know that the top 1% are generally using all advantages and the other 99% zombie through life . Maybe. But then again, the bigs are public companies with, what, shareholders holding over a billion shares. Well run, or at least largely lucky, big oil companies provide returns for retirement funds and other institutional investors like schools and others. If the share price steadily climbs over time, a shareholder can sell their shares at a profit. Question for the oil folks on here: are the major woes that are being discussed due to majors' participation or driven by the majors? Or is it these small and medium players that seem to be in the troubled areas you speak of? Or both at equal parts? (I am not talking about pandemic times combined with a KSA/Russia price war, etc. Just what you might call a "normal" time, assuming there is such a thing ) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Otis11 + 551 ZP May 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said: Maybe. But then again, the bigs are public companies with, what, shareholders holding over a billion shares. Well run, or at least largely lucky, big oil companies provide returns for retirement funds and other institutional investors like schools and others. If the share price steadily climbs over time, a shareholder can sell their shares at a profit. Question for the oil folks on here: are the major woes that are being discussed due to majors' participation or driven by the majors? Or is it these small and medium players that seem to be in the troubled areas you speak of? Or both at equal parts? (I am not talking about pandemic times combined with a KSA/Russia price war, etc. Just what you might call a "normal" time, assuming there is such a thing ) From my admittedly limited point of view (I know the people I work with, but there are a lot of small and medium players out here - so I don't even pretend to have a wide enough view point to speak for them all) - the major are going to be just fine. Large contiguous acreage allows for lower cost of development. Spreading overhead across multiple fields give good economics for even for relatively large overhead structures. They like to pontificate public numbers showing they can produce for $X super low number (seen public numbers from the high teens to the 20s) to their shareholders, but those are misleading at best. Won't sustain investment at those levels. They'll be fine in the $30s though by my guess. Small players are all over the map - I know some guys who are just harvesting the last drippings from wells that can produce for next to nothing. If they don't get a price that justifies their trip out to the field to haul it away, well, that well will just shut in on full tank levels until they have the motivation to go get it. (Now that may or may not be good business... but some are doing it. And they're staying above water on wells I would have shut in long ago. So while I think they're nuts, I'm not sure I really have room to criticize them for doing what works.$20/barrel will do just fine... may not be happy, but they'll keep doing it!) Small players that have overhead... are mostly going to sink. Need real $40-50+ to sustain The medium players are hurting too. A handful can keep their boots on in the $40's, but that's about the best I'm aware of. The large, non-majors - some are nearing the majors plays (and undercutting some majors with their home turf advantage) and can really survive in the $30s. Others were struggling to 'tolerate low prices' when we were looking at $50. My view - we won't see $50 oil again for any 180 day average in the next 5 years, possibly decade. (adjusting for inflation). So that push that through the numbers above and make your conclusions. Disclaimer: Just my unabridged opinion and makes sweeping generalizations due to the sheer number of players in this space. Also likely to be unpopular as people are likely to see some piece of information here they don't like... 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 May 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Otis11 said: Disclaimer: Just my unabridged opinion and makes sweeping generalizations due to the sheer number of players in this space. Also likely to be unpopular as people are likely to see some piece of information here they don't like... I hope they see the nature of the question for what it is; just curiosity. I too don't want to see pain for any of the people involved, but can see how the business of oil does have that so-called boom and bust character. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pisstol + 48 TF May 1, 2020 2 hours ago, BLA said: James You should know better than to give the articles written for OP any credibility. Out of the dozen writers there are maybe two that have any idea what's going on in the U.S. oil industry. BLA, I'm an ignorant newbie, and I have been reading oilprice.com articles religiously. Which writers have credibility? Which two writers have any idea what's going on in the U.S. shale industry? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
James Regan + 1,776 May 1, 2020 1 hour ago, pisstol said: BLA, I'm an ignorant newbie, and I have been reading oilprice.com articles religiously. Which writers have credibility? Which two writers have any idea what's going on in the U.S. shale industry? Nick Cunningham...... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 May 1, 2020 7 hours ago, James Regan said: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Mandatory-Output-Cuts-The-Only-Way-To-Save-US-Oil.html Looks Bleak....... Obviously not. The producers will bid for storage and pipeline space. Those that can't make it will shut off production and go under if they don't have the financial wherewithal. If someone nearby has a better well set to shut down they can sell their transport and storage space and close production themselves. Booked pipeline and storage will do more for you now that your oil production. Mandatory is arbitrary and no more likely to succeed nor track actual prices and the supply/demand balance. Just remember that what you see on the front month is not all lack of storage etc. it is also the raiding of the USO fund that people keep buying into this terrible contango where it is sure to lose money faster than oil prices rise. 1 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV May 1, 2020 6 hours ago, Otis11 said: From my admittedly limited point of view (I know the people I work with, but there are a lot of small and medium players out here - so I don't even pretend to have a wide enough view point to speak for them all) - the major are going to be just fine. Large contiguous acreage allows for lower cost of development. Spreading overhead across multiple fields give good economics for even for relatively large overhead structures. They like to pontificate public numbers showing they can produce for $X super low number (seen public numbers from the high teens to the 20s) to their shareholders, but those are misleading at best. Won't sustain investment at those levels. They'll be fine in the $30s though by my guess. Small players are all over the map - I know some guys who are just harvesting the last drippings from wells that can produce for next to nothing. If they don't get a price that justifies their trip out to the field to haul it away, well, that well will just shut in on full tank levels until they have the motivation to go get it. (Now that may or may not be good business... but some are doing it. And they're staying above water on wells I would have shut in long ago. So while I think they're nuts, I'm not sure I really have room to criticize them for doing what works.$20/barrel will do just fine... may not be happy, but they'll keep doing it!) Small players that have overhead... are mostly going to sink. Need real $40-50+ to sustain The medium players are hurting too. A handful can keep their boots on in the $40's, but that's about the best I'm aware of. The large, non-majors - some are nearing the majors plays (and undercutting some majors with their home turf advantage) and can really survive in the $30s. Others were struggling to 'tolerate low prices' when we were looking at $50. My view - we won't see $50 oil again for any 180 day average in the next 5 years, possibly decade. (adjusting for inflation). So that push that through the numbers above and make your conclusions. Disclaimer: Just my unabridged opinion and makes sweeping generalizations due to the sheer number of players in this space. Also likely to be unpopular as people are likely to see some piece of information here they don't like... Actually Otis, I think that is an excellent summary of the situation for US shale. I tend to focus on entire global industry, and because that outlook so grim, entirely agree that won't see sustained $50 oil for up to a decade. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Otis11 + 551 ZP May 1, 2020 8 hours ago, Wombat said: Actually Otis, I think that is an excellent summary of the situation for US shale. I tend to focus on entire global industry, and because that outlook so grim, entirely agree that won't see sustained $50 oil for up to a decade. Not happy about it, but that's what I'm planning on. I'm really hopeful for $40 oil, but I think that's my unchecked optimism. We shall see... If you have views of how this ripples through the global scene, I'd be interested. I have my suspicions, but no actual insight outside of US oil. Just what I get from talking to people. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat + 1,028 AV May 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Otis11 said: Not happy about it, but that's what I'm planning on. I'm really hopeful for $40 oil, but I think that's my unchecked optimism. We shall see... If you have views of how this ripples through the global scene, I'd be interested. I have my suspicions, but no actual insight outside of US oil. Just what I get from talking to people. TBH Otis, you can't make prediction about demand outlook for global oil without making prediction about outlook for global economy. Even the IEA believes the crap that there will be V-Shaped economic recovery. That is impossible given the record levels of global debt. Truth is, the global economy started to crash just before Covid hit. We were heading for a Great Depression 2 anyway, but Covid has accelerated the process and will make it even deeper. We need to assume a permanent 15-20% fall in oil demand, and even if production falls by that amount, you still need it to fall even further in order to get rid of massive inventory overhang, and by the time that starts to occur, electric vehicles will be selling like hotcakes, despite low oil prices. With so many oil producing countries fighting over a shrinking pie, the outlook for oil prices ain't good. Hope that helps 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ceo_energemsier + 1,818 cv May 1, 2020 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-posts-historic-loss-rout-122029590.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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