The best way to defeat Trump in this election: China cancels all trade war tariffs on American exports

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

For Turkey to ‘get into Iraq’, they’ll have to go through the Kurds first. Do they really want to do that and suffer an ongoing guerrilla war in their own border? 

Yes I get that,I once had a close friend who was a genuine Turk, quite well educated with a very unique view of the ME. 

I miss the guy quite a bit during the Bush/Iraq war he explained the realities of life there. Get inline and behave was his mantra for the Kurds...Both people are very proud...it runs deep almost like a national pride thing going far back in time.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

52 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Yes I get that,I once had a close friend who was a genuine Turk, quite well educated with a very unique view of the ME. 

I miss the guy quite a bit during the Bush/Iraq war he explained the realities of life there. Get inline and behave was his mantra for the Kurds...Both people are very proud...it runs deep almost like a national pride thing going far back i

53 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

So the problem with your take is the federal prosecutor Brandon Van Grack withdrew from the case when he learned what Trump and Barr were up to. He wanted no part of that drug deal. Which means, yes, Donald had Barr drop the charges.

No, it wasn't entrapment. Flynn lied to the FBI. He knew he lied. He made a plea deal when he got caught. It's very simple, do not lie to the FBI. Flynn was a general and ex-NSA. Trump said he fired Flynn for lying to VP Mike Pence. Certainly seems like Flynn had a predilection for lying even in the absence of FBI pressure, right? That's some pretty weak sauce to claim the FBI tricked ex-general ex-NSA Flynn into lying. 

 

 

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

So you just disregard the recently uncovered evidence?

 

Willful blindness, apparently.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

 

Willful blindness, apparently.

Heh-heh.  Have you ever been so MAD that you couldn't see straight?  This guy's like that all the time.  You'll have to add "sounding like a broken/scratched record" and "blind rage" to the TDS symptoms list.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Dan Warnick

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

55 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Yes I get that,I once had a close friend who was a genuine Turk, quite well educated with a very unique view of the ME. 

I miss the guy quite a bit during the Bush/Iraq war he explained the realities of life there. Get inline and behave was his mantra for the Kurds...Both people are very proud...it runs deep almost like a national pride thing going far back in time.

I’ve spent alot of time in Kurdistan, and really like the people and the place. All the Kurds want is a homeland, not an autonomous region.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Heh-heh.  Have you ever been so MAD that you couldn't see straight?  This guy's like that all the time.  You'll have to add "sounding like a broken/scratched record" and "blind rage" to the TDS symptoms list.

Maybe even add "blind as a Wuhan bat" too.

[BradleyPNW + 282]

11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

So you just disregard the recently uncovered evidence?

I placed the evidence into context. Did you not read my post? Donald explicitly said he fired Flynn for lying to VP Pence. I presume the FBI employee who wrote the notes didn't make Flynn lie to the Vice President.

What job did Donald fire Flynn from? National Security Advisor, one of the very tippy-top ranked positions in the executive branch. The NSA has unrestricted access to the highest levels of US security clearance. Prior to Trump, the NSA had unrestricted access to Five Eyes intelligence. However, after Trump handed code word intelligence over to the Russians inside the Oval Office our 5i partners started restricting intelligence sharing with the USA.

Anyway, you guys are proposing the FBI *tricked* an NSA into lying. That's absurd. And if it isn't absurd it means Donald chose a real dummy as NSA. So which is it: 1) Donald is a buffoon who hired a blundering idiot as NSA, or 2) Flynn committed the crimes for which he pleaded guilty. 

As always, Trump defenders have a penchant for painting themselves into a corner. You guys never think two steps ahead to see how your defense crumbles under scrutiny. 
 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 5/3/2020 at 12:02 AM, Jan van Eck said:

There is no logical reason for the American voters to wish to reject a second term of Donald Trump  (assuming he is the candidate, which is likely, and assuming that his wife does not insist he retire from politics),  The USA has effectively a two-party system.  The opposition party is the democrats, and they seem incapable of mounting a credible candidate.  Wht logical reason would any voter have, to vote for a Democrat candidate, when all they can trot out is some recycled Clintonite?  Who needs those people?  Nobody.

The Chinese have lost all credibility among Ameerican voters.  An argument could be made that the corn growers in Iowa might be angry that the market for their crop, and for soybeans, has evaporated, but remember that Mr. Trump can win an election without the delegate votes of Iowa in the Electoral College.  The key states are those that "flipped" from Dem to Repub in the last election:   Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa.  That brought Trump to 303 electoral votes, and you only need 270 to win.  Trump can lose Iowa. 

The Americans are going to separate themselves from China.  Nothing that China can do is going to deflect that.  Is China going to dismantle the Communist Party, remove itself from Tibet, remove itself from Xingjiang and fre the Uighurs,  give up the South China Sea, renounce intentions of seizing Taiwan, and start to behave?  No chance.  So, why should the Americans (or anyone else) have any truck with that crowd? 

"Trade War truce?"  There isn't going to be any trade, forget about those guys.  Will China disintergrate internally without the cash influx from sales to the Americans?  Probably.    Nobody cares about China any more.  China is done. 

That would be a good scenario from my point of view but I think that we will continue to do a large percentage of our trade with China for decades. What we must do is have viable alternatives for all goods and use them to keep prices down and China competing with poorer countries that are less powerful and are competitors with China. Our citizens have become very accustomed to Chinese products and I don't think it will be easy to end that proclivity. 

We do need to get control of our corporations and prevent them from aiding China in becoming more powerful through building manufacturing there. We also need to control Chinese businesses here and kick out any owned by Chinese military or any allied organization.

Jan, I just read a story telling how few soybeans the Chinese are purchasing and how they are using other suppliers. If they play more hardball then (if Trump is reelected, God willing) then we will have a true trade war and hopefully your prediction will be correct. They are trying to unseat them any way they can. If they fail, they may deal with him in an acceptable way. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by ronwagn
addition

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

9 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

I placed the evidence into context. Did you not read my post? Donald explicitly said he fired Flynn for lying to VP Pence. I presume the FBI employee who wrote the notes didn't make Flynn lie to the Vice President.

What job did Donald fire Flynn from? National Security Advisor, one of the very tippy-top ranked positions in the executive branch. The NSA has unrestricted access to the highest levels of US security clearance. Prior to Trump, the NSA had unrestricted access to Five Eyes intelligence. However, after Trump handed code word intelligence over to the Russians inside the Oval Office our 5i partners started restricting intelligence sharing with the USA.

Anyway, you guys are proposing the FBI *tricked* an NSA into lying. That's absurd. And if it isn't absurd it means Donald chose a real dummy as NSA. So which is it: 1) Donald is a buffoon who hired a blundering idiot as NSA, or 2) Flynn committed the crimes for which he pleaded guilty. 

As always, Trump defenders have a penchant for painting themselves into a corner. You guys never think two steps ahead to see how your defense crumbles under scrutiny. 
 

However, after Trump handed code word intelligence over to the Russians inside the Oval Office our 5i partners started restricting intelligence sharing with the USA.

Can you provide a source for your claim that Trump handed code word intelligence (whatever that is) to Russia?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

This video presentation is one of the best I have seen done.  It covers the beginning of the CCP and continues up to last month, what role the CCP has played over that last 70-odd years and how the it has evolved.  An excellent presentation.  I previously made comments here on Oil Price that I believe the virus outbreak was meant, in whole or in part, to shut down the situation in Hong Kong, which was arguably spinning out of their control.  Not temporarily; permanently.  The virus presented a way to quarantine people and effectively stop all protests and media coverage.  It also made foreigners leave the city en masse.  It then presented an excellent opportunity for the CCP to "clean house" of any anti-CCP leaders and activists.  If you are not clear about what I mean, I mean during lockdown the CCP was able to track down any person(s) they wanted silenced, go to their exact location, extract them under the guise of the virus, and eliminate them.  Eliminate them.  Most likely thousands of citizens, but we will have to wait and see if there is ever an accounting.  Watch the video, it is that well done.

@Tom Kirkman I have downloaded it to my hard drive, but I don't know how to do the things you do to preserve such media.  Please save this and share it as you might so that it gets a wider distribution.  Thanks, Tom.

[pfarley@bigpond.net.au + 36]

 If you take a Chinese shipyard with a 25% tariff wall on his new ships, what on earth could he build and sell to an American?  Nothing?  That's right - nothing.  Those orders are headed for yards in Korea or Romania.  It makes no difference if that is a tugboat or a containership, the yard is all done.  Bye-bye. 

 Mr Van Eyk . If you are going to write such a long post why start off displaying your ignorance. Chinese shipyards sell almost nothing to the US and never have. They specialise in bulk and crude carriers for international trade and the US has almost zero US flagged international trading ships. Coastal ships have always built in the US under the Jones act so absolutely no difference to Chinese shipyards.

China can buy jet engines from Europe Canola and Soy from the Caucuses, Brazil, Argentina and Australia and gas and coal from the middle East and Australia. In fact it will be easier for China to disengage from the US than the US and its multinationals from China but both countries will suffer.

As for IP theft and repression. The US has been doing for 200 years initially through straight out theft and then even now forcing European and Australian defence suppliers to build in the US, the Jones act and standards manipulation to keep out foreign products  and for the last 60-70 years, through the dominance of International standards bodies which favoured US companies and technologies at the expense of other countries.

It is just a pity that the last 20 years of war on intelligence and expertise has undermined the US lead in so many areas of technology - telecoms, commercial aerospace, power generation and transmission, pharmaceuticals.

And if the US disentangles from China it is not just farmers but Boeing, Ford, GM, Cisco,  GE, United Technologies and Intel that will all lose business, not only in China but everywhere else because economies of scale through access to much larger markets of Europe and China will see Airbus dominate Boeing, Siemens over GE,Volkswagen and Toyota crush Ford and GM etc.

The US clout in international standards organisations will decline to meaninglessness and it will be left to wallow in its unhealthy 60 hz world of inches and pounds. A country which even with two months warning and spending twice the share of its GDP on health that anyone else does has 20 times the death rate from CV19 as most of its Asian competitors.

This is further illustrated by the straight out ignorance of the rest of the world displayed by many US based commentators on this forum, who still believe the myth of American exceptionalism and leadership. I first visited the US in 1976 and was amazed at both the civil society living standards for ordinary people and technological leadership. I worked for once great companies like Westinghouse and my father was a Ford dealer. Subsequently I have accrued at least 100 visits and a couple of years visiting 48 US states.  I still have many American friends but would I now buy a car from the big 3 or electrical equipment form the US or I am I likely to fly on a Lockheed, Douglas or even now a Boeing aircraft, almost certainly not. Do I fear the risks and cost of medical treatment in the US if I ever travel there again, absolutely 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I have downloaded it to my hard drive, but I don't know how to do the things you do to preserve such media.  Please save this and share it as you might so that it gets a wider distribution.  Thanks, Tom.

Here's one simple website to download YouTube videos to your hard drive.  

https://www.freeonlineconverter.net/sites/youtube-to-mp4/

With YouTube censoring more and more videos these days, it may be wise to archive videos you like to your computer or a standalone hard drive.

Dan, I'll watch the video later today.  Will be out and about exercising for quite a few hours as part of my fasting routine lately.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

 If you take a Chinese shipyard with a 25% tariff wall on his new ships, what on earth could he build and sell to an American?  Nothing?  That's right - nothing.  Those orders are headed for yards in Korea or Romania.  It makes no difference if that is a tugboat or a containership, the yard is all done.  Bye-bye. 

 Mr Van Eyk . If you are going to write such a long post why start off displaying your ignorance. Chinese shipyards sell almost nothing to the US and never have. They specialise in bulk and crude carriers for international trade and the US has almost zero US flagged international trading ships. Coastal ships have always built in the US under the Jones act so absolutely no difference to Chinese shipyards.

...

This is further illustrated by the straight out ignorance of the rest of the world displayed by many US based commentators on this forum, who still believe the myth of American exceptionalism and leadership. I first visited the US in 1976 and was amazed at both the civil society living standards for ordinary people and technological leadership. I worked for once great companies like Westinghouse and my father was a Ford dealer. Subsequently I have accrued at least 100 visits and a couple of years visiting 48 US states.  I still have many American friends but would I now buy a car from the big 3 or electrical equipment form the US or I am I likely to fly on a Lockheed, Douglas or even now a Boeing aircraft, almost certainly not. Do I fear the risks and cost of medical treatment in the US if I ever travel there again, absolutely 

Pfarley, you may wish to note that @Jan van Eck is Dutch, not American.

And calling Jan "ignorant" is quite amusing.  You really have no idea who you are talking to.  Although he seems to have an odd fascination with cheese.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

If Jan is ‘ignorant’.....I’ve got no chance!😂

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

13 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

Mr Van Eyk . If you are going to write such a long post why start off displaying your ignorance. Chinese shipyards sell almost nothing to the US and never have. They specialise in bulk and crude carriers for international trade and the US has almost zero US flagged international trading ships. Coastal ships have always built in the US under the Jones act so absolutely no difference to Chinese shipyards.

First off, simply because some ship is not flagged in the USA does not mean that the buyers are not Americans and that the money is not American.  For example, the largest customers at Meyer Werft, a builder of super-mega-cruise ships on the river Ems at Papenburg, are Americans, operating cruise ships out of Miami and Port Canaveral under flags such as Carnival, Norweigan, and Holland America.  Notwithstanding the names, all those ships are American-bought and are flagged in places such as Nassau, under "flags of convenience."  Similarly, lots of bulk carriers are purchased by Americans and flagged in say Piraeus or Liberia, under Greek corporations - but that does not mean the buyers are not New Yorkers. 

Foreign-built hulls running in the US coastal trade do exist.  The US Maritime Administration has a "waiver" system in place that allows applicants to purchase a foreign-built hull and oeprate it as an American-flagged vessel. Just to get you up to speed on how that works inside the USA.   You have a nice day, now. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

14 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

China can buy jet engines from Europe

Well, maybe so, but the aircraft engine purchased in europe is actually designed by General Electric and is manufactured in a 50-50 joint venture in France.  That engine is the CFM-56,  and the joint venture is known as SNECMA, which has become Safran Aircraft Engines.  The subsidiary of that is called CFM.  Don't think for a minute that you are not buying American technology, all that stuff is from General Electric.  The Safran footprint is huge: aside form the CFM56, of which some 30,000 engines were built, the others in the line-up include the CF6-80 and the GE90.  The latest is the GP7000, which runs the Airbus 380, and you have the LEAP engine, designed by GE and built 50-50 with the French.  As monster turbofans they can and do power the planet.  If you want to go buy a Russian aircraft instead of an American one then your engine powerplant will likely be the SaM 146, which the Russians stuff into the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which is a nice aircraft but again has a US-designed and partnership built motor.  OK, I suppose you could go buy an engine from Rolls-Royce, but other than that, you are fitting your Chinese COMAC 919 with an American engine.  You have a nice day, now.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

14 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

Canola and Soy from the Caucuses, Brazil, Argentina and Australia

In theory China can go buy soybeans from the countries you cite, but not enough.  Brasil has these problems in getting the bulk crop down from the plateau to the sea level; the dro[ is severe and there are no rail trains, so the product has to move by truck.  The orad down from the plateau is steep and two-lane only, so at harvest time that roadway is totally clogged up with caravans of heavy trucks attempting to move product from the frams to the ports.  With these limitations, and others as to crop sizes, if China wants to have soybeans they can either buy from the USA or they can go without.  Admittedly, of late the Chinese have refused to buy US soybeans but that is an effort to undermine Mr. Trump is the US Midwesst for political purposes; that will stop soon enough as hunger sets in, in China.  v 

Now as to Canola, that product is not available outside Canada and the USA.  Canola is an artificial plant, specially created inside the Agriculture Section of the University of Manitoba, and initially grown in the Province of Manitoba in Canada, where now some 450,000 acres are under cultivation.  It has the characteristic of having twice the yield of oil when pressed and processed than sobyeans.  It also has other characteristics for cooking oils that make it pe\referable to both olive oil and corn oil.  The US farmers put some 2.2 million acres under cultivatioin, using the Canadian plant, and most of that is historically sold to China in seed form for conversion inside China to oil.  Yes, the Chinese have embargoed their purchases of US Canola also, in order to put political pressure on Mr. Trump, but your idea that they can buy canola from the Caucuses is a non-starter.  the product there is rapeseed, the precursor plant to Canola, and it has at best 50% of the oil output than Canola, and the oil from rapeseed is of lesser cooking quality.  So:  can it be done  (drop Canola from the China dinner table kitchens)?  Yes, but the price is steep.  Buying rapeseed is strictly a second-choice solution, and the people getting hurt are the Chinese themselves. 

You have the same situation with pork, a large input into the Chinese diet.  China has grossly insufficient pork for its internal needs.  China actgually bought the US Smithfield Foods Corp., a huge producer of pork, in order to secure a steady and reliable supply of pork meat to China.  Without US pork, China goes hungry.   You have a nice day, now. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

13 hours ago, pfarley@bigpond.net.au said:

This is further illustrated by the straight out ignorance of the rest of the world displayed by many US based commentators on this forum, who still believe the myth of American exceptionalism and leadership.

Your comment is inaccurate in that US exceptionalism and leadership is very much the standard for the world; it is not a myth, it just happens to be the case.  It is the US that is the market for the world, and historically the US invites one and all to come to America and sell their products.  It is also the US that is the Policeman of the WEorld, and without the US military the world would be in chaos of war and piracy.  You can thank the US Navy for ensuring that all nations can and do trade peaceably with each other without fear of being murdered on the highseas or having their cargos stolen in foreign ports.  Anybody does that, and they will be dealing with the successors to John Paul Jones soon enough. You have a nice day, now.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

If Jan is ‘ignorant’.....I’ve got no chance!😂

that is actually funny!  😀

Douglas, I think you have been cooped up inside that apartment way too long.  Time for a motorcycle ride!

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Although he seems to have an odd fascination with cheese.

I think I need to do "social distancing" from my refrigerator.  I have gained another ten pounds just in April.  Ugh. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

but I think that we will continue to do a large percentage of our trade with China for decades

I rather doubt that.  China has been demonstrated to be an iffy, unreliable source.  What is it that you want to go buy?  If it is an industrial product, you can get the same product out of Taiwan or Japan or Korea, just pay a little more.  Or you can get the supercharged industrial version out of Germany or the UK and pay a lot more.  Or, if the product is a US design, then have it manufactued inside the USA or Canada and have complete control plus instant trucking by rail or truck to your customer.  The idea of sourcing industrial goods, for example large diesel engines, from some plant in China is no longer a value proposition. 

If the product is a consumer item, then I think you will see a rejection by US consumers of the "made in China" label that must be placed on every box for retail distribution.  Who needs it?  Other than the Wal-Mart shoppers, the answer is nobody.  OK, so your coffee-maker packed it in and you need another one  (just happened to me).  The old one lasted about 5 months and was made in China; it burned out the heating coil so is useless.  The replacement I got at Wally World for another ten bucks, and yup, Made in China on the box.  Would I shell out $40 for an American (or Canadian) one?  Sure I would.  First, if the heting coil burns out, I can email the manufacturer and get a replacement part I can put in on my kitchen table.  Second, I am fed up with Chinese stuff that does not last.  Will an American manufacturer pull his tooling out of China and go mold the plastic in the USA and go buy the glass from Corning?  I predict it will happen soon enough. And if Mr. Trump whacks the Chinese product with a 50% tariff, then it will happen a lot faster.  the China trade is going to start shutting down, my prediction. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

16 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I think I need to do "social distancing" from my refrigerator.  I have gained another ten pounds just in April.  Ugh. 

Have you tried fasting?  I've lost 10 pounds of fat in 9 days of fasting.  And autophagy is a big plus during the lockdown panic-o-rama season.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Have you tried fasting?  I've lost 10 pounds of fat in 9 days of fasting.  And autophagy is a big plus during the lockdown panic-o-rama season.

Fasting requires personal discipline.  Also means giving up mayonnaise. You ask too much of me!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I rather doubt that.  China has been demonstrated to be an iffy, unreliable source.  What is it that you want to go buy?  If it is an industrial product, you can get the same product out of Taiwan or Japan or Korea, just pay a little more.  Or you can get the supercharged industrial version out of Germany or the UK and pay a lot more.  Or, if the product is a US design, then have it manufactued inside the USA or Canada and have complete control plus instant trucking by rail or truck to your customer.  The idea of sourcing industrial goods, for example large diesel engines, from some plant in China is no longer a value proposition. 

If the product is a consumer item, then I think you will see a rejection by US consumers of the "made in China" label that must be placed on every box for retail distribution.  Who needs it?  Other than the Wal-Mart shoppers, the answer is nobody.  OK, so your coffee-maker packed it in and you need another one  (just happened to me).  The old one lasted about 5 months and was made in China; it burned out the heating coil so is useless.  The replacement I got at Wally World for another ten bucks, and yup, Made in China on the box.  Would I shell out $40 for an American (or Canadian) one?  Sure I would.  First, if the heting coil burns out, I can email the manufacturer and get a replacement part I can put in on my kitchen table.  Second, I am fed up with Chinese stuff that does not last.  Will an American manufacturer pull his tooling out of China and go mold the plastic in the USA and go buy the glass from Corning?  I predict it will happen soon enough. And if Mr. Trump whacks the Chinese product with a 50% tariff, then it will happen a lot faster.  the China trade is going to start shutting down, my prediction. 

If China does not start making the purchases from America agreed to with Trump they can expect quick action. I was adding to my comment as you were posting this. They want him gone so bad that they may continue hardball until after the election though. Trump needs to show his leadership against the China trade until then. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

If China does not start making the purchases from America agreed to with Trump they can expect quick action. I was adding to my comment as you were posting this. They want him gone so bad that they may continue hardball until after the election though. Trump needs to show his leadership against the China trade until then. 

All true.  Trump has been a huge headache for the Chinese strategy of trade dominance and mercantile enrichment.  Oh, well.