What's Behind Oil Price Volatility?

Everything seemed so bullish at the end of last week, and geopolitical risk seems to be growing by the day. With that in mind I was pretty surprised to see oil prices down two and a half percent... any ideas what this is on?

I can see Russian production increased https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Russia-Cheating-On-The-OPEC-Deal.html but surely with all the bullish noise from OPEC and Russia, this isn't enough to justify such a dip?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russia production up, Saudi Arabia's prices down. I don't think it takes much these days to move the needle.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As always, it looks like a combination of factors... huge Cushing build, geopolitical uncertainty, Russia ups production, Iraq says it wants to boost production to 6.5 million bpd by 2022... hedge funds taking some profits...  did I forget something?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, BeamMeUp said:

Russia production up, Saudi Arabia's prices down. I don't think it takes much these days to move the needle.

I don't think Saudi Arabia lowered their oil prices (to Asia, I believe you mean). I think most people think this is coming, but I don't think they pulled the trigger yet.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Rodent said:

I don't think Saudi Arabia lowered their oil prices (to Asia, I believe you mean). I think most people think this is coming, but I don't think they pulled the trigger yet.

I saw they lowered Arab light prices in early March https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-05/saudis-cut-asia-light-oil-pricing-for-first-time-in-eight-months - but I haven't seen anything since then. Certainly nothing to trigger a drop... But as @BeamMeUp says - maybe it just doesn't take much these days. Algo trading makes these markets so hard to follow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dbdicker said:

Lots of Longs - and historically low numbers of shorts.  That usually leads to a correction.  Temporary.

 

 energy word blogletter - FREE

Interesting - I wasn't actually aware there were still so few shorts. 

Is there anywhere I can track longs and shorts on a daily/weekly basis? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What category on the report you are referring too?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see 438k Kong’s vs 525k shorts, not sure where you are looking at I am under two New York merc? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about the increasing risks of trade wars and heightened protectionism, which does not  bode well for the world economy?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are in an interesting place at the moment with Oil and all forms of Renewable Energy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the invitation! I'm in!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks For the invite

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All these daily/ weekly ups and down are just background noise.

Look at the long term trends

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have read when money managers are long in excess of 300,000 contracts a top is about in, last night into todays 5 min chart looks kinda stinky to me, the same rallies spread about 4 hours apart looks like a large entity that has to abide by large account rules coming in to establish a maybe long term position and the lack of sellers throught todays trade concerns me, its either a fake ya then break or we are going to 70$, nothing like standing on both sides of the fence huh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0