U.S. Census Projects Major Increase in Births in 2021 ?

[BLA + 854]

 

Based on what ?

 

 

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Edited May 11 by BLA

[Meredith Poor + 454]

Most surveys are showing about 1/3rd of couples are deferring their plans to have kids 'for the time being'.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21224065/coronavirus-pregnancy-kids-children-fertility-abortion-covid

 

[Meredith Poor + 454]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm

The 12 month trailing average birthrate is 57.9 children per 1000 women. To put this in context, the population of the US is 328 million, and life expectancy is 80 years. 328 million / 80 = 4,100,000 babies per year. This has to be multiple by 1.05 to get the 'replacement rate', since not all children born reproduce.

If females make up half of the population, then there are 2,050,000 women in each year between age 15 and age 45, or 61,500,000 of reproductive age. Dividing 61,600,000 by 1000 and multiplying by 57.9 yields 3,560,850 babies born between October 1st, 2018 and August 31st, 2019. Subtracting 3,560,850 from 4,100,000 yields a 'shortage' of 539,150 babies in that 1 year period. This suggests that the native-born population of the US is shrinking by about 1 million every two years.

The trend has been 'below replacement' in the US since 2015.