Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices

[markslawson + 1,042]

21 hours ago, nsdp said:

These subs use fuel cells to power the sub and carry an electrolyzer to recirculate water and split it back to fuel to refill the tanks by snorkeling and running the diesel generator. .  

nsdp - the application you cite has nothing to do with renewable energy. I think you've become confused over the use of the phrase "fuel cells". In the case of those subs it's to do with the propulsion system.. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

On 5/16/2020 at 7:07 AM, NickW said:

The capital outlay is higher but not significantly so

That's offset by:

Not having the work crews have to mess around with gasoline

Electricity is much cheaper than gasoline

Servicing of electric chainsaws is much simpler

Exposure to exhaust gases are eliminated

Exposure to noise significantly reduced. 

Exposure to vibration moderately reduced

Gilding the lily is stupid: Lets not overstate a decent thing ok? 

1st off: 1/2 the work in same amount of time with electric chainsaws compared to the SMALLEST ICE powered chainsaw(look up actual reviews on youtube who actually sharpened their saws properly for apples to apples comps) .  You have to stop and fill the oiler anyways along with replacing battery, so no, adding gas(20s to fill) is not a burden.  Now, no gasoline fumes big +, and less noise?  ++ 😀  Now, if you are pruning which means MOST of your work is moving/cleaning branches, yes, electric will work+++  After all everyone has been using electric chainsaw pruners for years for exactly this reason and why handsaws are still used extensively when pruning. 

Until someone can make a 3KW continuous duty electric motor someone can carry... electric chainsaws are doomed to irrelevance.  Currently the best DC motor brushless Neodymium magnet motor without the cooling additions, chainsaw frame, bar etc let alone the battery to power said 3KW motor weighs more than a medium-->large sized chainsaw full of fuel/oil that will run for 20 minutes straight without stopping.   PS: Best 3KW battery that would run for even 20 minutes-->1KW like a SINGLE tank of fuel, will set you back 10kg by itself which weighs more than a full up LARGE chainsaw fully fueled.

Electric battery powered equipment is not happening anytime soon for heavy work.  Light(yes as that has been true since days of NiMh) in the 90's/80s.  Increase current battery density 100%, at least most things become possible.  Still not possible for an electric chainsaw, but most other things. 

PPS: More $$$ is spent OILING the bar on a chainsaw by 3X than by fuel unless use of used filtered engine oil.  Most guys do not do. 

[notsonice + 1,065]

8 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Gilding the lily is stupid: Lets not overstate a decent thing ok? 

1st off: 1/2 the work in same amount of time with electric chainsaws compared to the SMALLEST ICE powered chainsaw(look up actual reviews on youtube who actually sharpened their saws properly for apples to apples comps) .  You have to stop and fill the oiler anyways along with replacing battery, so no, adding gas(20s to fill) is not a burden.  Now, no gasoline fumes big +, and less noise?  ++ 😀  Now, if you are pruning which means MOST of your work is moving/cleaning branches, yes, electric will work+++  After all everyone has been using electric chainsaw pruners for years for exactly this reason and why handsaws are still used extensively when pruning. 

Until someone can make a 3KW continuous duty electric motor someone can carry... electric chainsaws are doomed to irrelevance.  Currently the best DC motor brushless Neodymium magnet motor without the cooling additions, chainsaw frame, bar etc let alone the battery to power said 3KW motor weighs more than a medium-->large sized chainsaw full of fuel/oil that will run for 20 minutes straight without stopping.   PS: Best 3KW battery that would run for even 20 minutes-->1KW like a SINGLE tank of fuel, will set you back 10kg by itself which weighs more than a full up LARGE chainsaw fully fueled.

Electric battery powered equipment is not happening anytime soon for heavy work.  Light(yes as that has been true since days of NiMh) in the 90's/80s.  Increase current battery density 100%, at least most things become possible.  Still not possible for an electric chainsaw, but most other things. 

PPS: More $$$ is spent OILING the bar on a chainsaw by 3X than by fuel unless use of used filtered engine oil.  Most guys do not do. 

[notsonice + 1,065]

The new world's largest electric vehicle is a 290-ton dump truck that will soon begin testing in Africa

Brittany Chang

Feb 23, 2020, 6:50 AM

nglo American's Komatsu mining dump truck. Anglo American

• Anglo American, ENGIE, and Williams Advanced Engineering are working together to create the world's largest electric vehicle: a hydrogen-powered mining truck.
• Anglo American claims the vehicle will be capable of performing just as well, if not better, than its diesel-powered counterparts.
• The truck will begin testing in a platinum group metals mine in Mogalakwena, South Africa before being used in other locations.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Anglo American, ENGIE, and Williams Advanced Engineering are working together to create the world's largest hydrogen-powered mining truck capable of performing just as well, if not better, than its diesel-powered counterparts.

Anglo American is in the process of modifying its fleet of mining trucks to make them hydrogen-powered. ENGIE will be supplying the hydrogen technology and Williams the battery system, while Anglo American is providing its own Komatsu trucks. 

The first rounds of the hydrogen-powered truck production will begin this year, and testing will occur at the platinum group metals mine in Mogalakwena, South Africa before being used in other locations. Keep scrolling to see the environmentally-friendly mine truck:

Anglo American predicts the performance of the hydrogen-powered trucks will be "the same or better" than its diesel trucks.

Anglo American's Komatsu mining dump truck. Anglo American

The new hydrogen outfit will allow the mining truck to be less noisy and cheaper to maintain than its diesel versions. The dump truck will weigh 290 tons, according to Popular Mechanics, making it larger than the previous largest electric vehicle: the 45-ton eDumper. 

A lithium-ion battery will replace the diesel engine, allowing the FCEV haul truck to be powered by both a battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology, similar to the upcoming electric Nikola Badger pickup truck. It also gives the mining truck energy storage of up to 1,000 kilowatt-hours, allowing it to work in the same "harsh environments" as a diesel-powered haul truck, according to Williams.

The truck will also have regenerative braking, allowing the vehicle to conserve and recuperate energy while going downhill, according to Williams Advanced Engineering.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

5 minutes ago, notsonice said:

an its diesel versions. The dump truck will weigh 290 tons, according to Popular Mechanics, making it larger than the previous largest electric vehicle: the 45-ton eDumper. 

A lithium-ion battery will replace the diesel engine, allowing the FCEV haul truck to be powered by both a battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology, similar to the upcoming electric Nikola Badger pickup truck. It also gives the mining truck energy storage of up to 1,000 kilowatt-hours,

The truck will also have regenerative braking, allowing the vehicle to conserve and recuperate energy while going downhill, according to Williams Advanced Engineering.

So, powered by Hydrogen, not diesel, not electric... not news.  Hydrogen does not magically appear.  Biggest problem underground is CO2.  Hydrogen makes good sense, and it is VERY light which means it rises, if any leaks happen.  Unlike diesel fumes which sink...

1KkW battery will last ~1 hour if it was not powered by hydrogen.  This is being used as an energy buffer to the Hydrogen for current draw and they get the bonus of regen braking, saving $$$ on maintenance.  Ever taken a tractor  tire off to do the brakes... yea NOT FUN.  These tires are massive and anything which stops the removal process has got to be a BIG bonus for mining operations.

[notsonice + 1,065]

4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

So, powered by Hydrogen, not diesel, not electric... not news.  Hydrogen does not magically appear.  Biggest problem underground is CO2.  Hydrogen makes good sense, and it is VERY light which means it rises, if any leaks happen.  Unlike diesel fumes which sink...

1KkW battery will last ~1 hour if it was not powered by hydrogen.  This is being used as an energy buffer to the Hydrogen for current draw and they get the bonus of regen braking, saving $$$ on maintenance.  Ever taken a tractor  tire off to do the brakes... yea NOT FUN.  These tires are massive and anything which stops the removal process has got to be a BIG bonus for mining operations.

A lithium-ion battery will replace the diesel engine, allowing the FCEV haul truck to be powered by both a battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology

[notsonice + 1,065]

5 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

So, powered by Hydrogen, not diesel, not electric... not news.  Hydrogen does not magically appear.  Biggest problem underground is CO2.  Hydrogen makes good sense, and it is VERY light which means it rises, if any leaks happen.  Unlike diesel fumes which sink...

1KkW battery will last ~1 hour if it was not powered by hydrogen.  This is being used as an energy buffer to the Hydrogen for current draw and they get the bonus of regen braking, saving $$$ on maintenance.  Ever taken a tractor  tire off to do the brakes... yea NOT FUN.  These tires are massive and anything which stops the removal process has got to be a BIG bonus for mining operations.

Have you ever worked on a 200 ton plus haul truck? as you would know they all already have electric motors on wheels. Getting rid of the diesel engines is a dream come true. The Diesel end of them cost a fortune, always in the shop and the fuel bills ? crazy. These new trucks will get overhead trolley charge systems on them no different than electric boost diesels that are used today. You only have to have the trolley on your main haul road for less than 20 percent of the distance and your 1 hour charge is never a problem.

[notsonice + 1,065]

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

10 minutes ago, notsonice said:

A lithium-ion battery will replace the diesel engine, allowing the FCEV haul truck to be powered by both a battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology

These trucks have 3000HP engines in them running at 100% load often when climbing.  That is 1 hour run time of a 1000kwh battery if you assume lower rating power while being loaded and on the flat etc.  https://www.specguideonline.com/product/komatsu-930e-4-se. 

Learn how to contemplate/read. Unless you prefer looking like a fool. 

Reality talks, bull Shit walks. 

[notsonice + 1,065]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

These trucks have 3000HP engines in them running at 100% load often when climbing.  That is 1 hour run time of a 1000kwh battery if you assume lower rating power while being loaded and on the flat etc.  https://www.specguideonline.com/product/komatsu-930e-4-se. 

Learn how to contemplate/read. Unless you prefer looking like a fool. 

Reality talks, bull Shit walks. 

Komatsu  is bringing them to market and with Trolley assist you will not need the hydrogen fuel. You work with haul trucks ever? do you know what Trolley assist is all about?? look at the photo of the haul truck above running on overhead trolley grid power, this requires no battery when on the trolley nor any diesel and you can charge the batteries at the same time. Trolley assist is used at almost all iron ore mines. Get it ? Grid power powering haul trucks/ no need for diesel if you have batteries coupled with Trolley. The biggest problem with haul trucks using trolley assist without batteries is in the pit, near the shovel as  one cannot run the trolley assist in the actively mined part of the pit. Do you not understand the tech of a haul truck?? you should change your name to footinthemouth@yahoo.com

Edited May 18, 2020 by notsonice

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

13 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Komatsu  is bringing them to market and with Trolley assist you will not need the hydrogen fuel. You work with haul trucks ever? do you not understand the tech of a haul truck? you should change your name to footinthemouth@yahoo.com

Can you math bro?  

3000HP ~= 2200kWh

1000kWh battery has how many available? 600kWh Why?  top/bottom 20% never get used of theoretical unless you only want 1000 cycles that is on a truck charging/discharging 100% multitude time a day...

Run time = 15-->20minutes @ full.  Not at full 100%. 

Charge time ~= 2X discharge time in Li-ion land, but if you ONLY charge to 50%, then you can charge faster... So, your 1000kWh battery now has an operating capacity of 300-->400kWh and a run time of ~10 minutes and a charge time(if one uses Tesla cells to 50%) of 10minutes.  

Now I have not worked in a giant open pit mine but by simple observation of others, round trip time is much greater than 10 minutes in anything other than the very beginning of the mining operation. 

Now you can claim to use the Sony Murata cells with 5C discharge and 2C charge rates.... of course said cells only operate for roughly 500 cycles till capacity hits 60%.. and at these charge/discharge rates capacity of cells drops by 10--25%, but lets assume that most of that is due to temperature effects and can be ameliorated... so, uh... 500cycles... So, you can run under your "cable" charging station for???? 5minutes... 5 minutes driving time... at ~40kph = ~3km of contact..... at perfect height in a mine environment... Yea, uh huh.  Overhead barely works for very expensive railroads that do not move.  Didn't work for buses on pavement...  So, you are going to have your trucks sitting for 5 minutes not moving and charging will be the reality.... and all of this assumes your travel time is 10minutes or less for these giant pit trucks as they move at 15-->20kmh when loaded.... ~2km distance.

Actually for really small mines, this could actually work .... maybe if you utterly ignore battery degradation at those high C discharge rates. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 hours ago, NickW said:

I wouldn't seek to dictate what people use - I simply conveyed my personal experience with an induction hob. 

I assume you live somewhere warm with a very leaky house. In a cold climate if you tried to heat a a house adequately with an unvented gas appliance last winter you wouldn't be posting here today. 

I used to live in an old house with no wall insulation but a great boiler system fired with natural gas and hot water  registers along the walls on the floor. It worked great but natural gas was higher priced back then. I actually bought a corn stove but there was no way it could heat that house by itself. I now live in a modern home with very good insulation and It costs very little to heat. I am on the same latitude as Indianapolis. My old house had three stories so it would require at least two heaters. Three to be toasty in really cold weather in that old 1915 home. It originally had a fireplace that was walled up for some reason.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

21 hours ago, 0R0 said:

IIRC the half life of CO2 in the air is 7 years.

We have a 30% rise in green biomass because of the CO2 fertilization effect, thus increasing the CO2 absorption rate.

Since we are heading into a low sunspot cycle for the next 24 years, or longer, we need to have the CO2 greenshouse effect for that time. Otherwise, most of the world's second annual grain crop is gone Furthermore, cold sunspot periods are dry and produce famines.

Yes, I am presently living through the coldest Spring we have ever had, or it sure seem so. Still waiting for Global Warming at the latitude of Indianapolis. 

The American population center has moved from near Boston to southern Missouri, so air conditioning has had more influence than any warming that may have occurred. I think the population center will continue toward the Southwest. 

The North may actually need thousands of acres of natural gas heated greenhouses for fresh vegetables. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 5/16/2020 at 5:28 PM, markslawson said:

Jay - I suspect you hurriedly looked up undersea links when I mentioned the problems of connecting, and missed the point I was making. Such connections are common, incidentally. Britain is linked to Europe, Ireland to Britain and Denmark to Norway and Sweden among a number of others. I never said it wasn't possible. What I was saying was that it will be prohibitively expensive which your link confirms. Now get out an atlas and compare the distances involved in your cited link and the one you fondly imagine someone might build, to channel the output of projects not yet built in North Africa, to Germany! Laying the cable along rivers, while an amusing suggestion will cover only a part of the on-land route. You will still have to cover big stretches of land containing angry residents. Outside you rich imagination this isn't going to happen. Sorry! Leave it with you.

You scoffed at the idea of connecting Norway and Africa to Germany. It will be a few years before the cables are cheap enough for the African connection but that day will come sooner than later. Though N.Sea wind and Norway pumped hydro might be all they need. 

Burying the cables underground and under rivers negates most of the popular push back. 

If the cables are so overpriced then why are there so many of them already connecting northern Europe? 

Norway - Germany, 1400MW, 1.5-2 billion euro, online in 2021. Not overpriced.

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You scoffed at the idea of connecting Norway and Africa to Germany. It will be a few years before the cables are cheap enough for the African connection but that day will come sooner than later. Though N.Sea wind and Norway pumped hydro might be all they need. 

Burying the cables underground and under rivers negates most of the popular push back. 

If the cables are so overpriced then why are there so many of them already connecting northern Europe? 

Norway - Germany, 1400MW, 1.5-2 billion euro, online in 2021. Not overpriced.

 

Fantastic video presentation.  Very impressive.  And the cost to the consumer is similar to traditional supply?  Sorry, I haven't been following this thread that closely, so if you guys have already covered my question, I do apologize, but would still appreciate an answer.  Thanks.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

31 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Fantastic video presentation.  Very impressive.  And the cost to the consumer is similar to traditional supply?  Sorry, I haven't been following this thread that closely, so if you guys have already covered my question, I do apologize, but would still appreciate an answer.  Thanks.

It is part of Nord Pool, so market rates I presume. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Pool

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 5/17/2020 at 3:17 PM, Wombat said:

Actually Doug, investment in renewables is only major industry that still growing right now. Time to embrace it?

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/IEA-Sees-Unique-Opportunity-For-Clean-Energy-During-Covid-19-Crisis.html

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 5/17/2020 at 4:47 PM, 0R0 said:

IIRC the half life of CO2 in the air is 7 years.

We have a 30% rise in green biomass because of the CO2 fertilization effect, thus increasing the CO2 absorption rate.

Since we are heading into a low sunspot cycle for the next 24 years, or longer, we need to have the CO2 greenshouse effect for that time. Otherwise, most of the world's second annual grain crop is gone Furthermore, cold sunspot periods are dry and produce famines.

Half-life of CO2 in air is 30 years. Methane is 7 years. But methane is 75X worse greenhouse gas than CO2. Within 10 years, will be even greater contribution to global warming than CO2.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 5/17/2020 at 4:47 PM, 0R0 said:

IIRC the half life of CO2 in the air is 7 years.

We have a 30% rise in green biomass because of the CO2 fertilization effect, thus increasing the CO2 absorption rate.

Since we are heading into a low sunspot cycle for the next 24 years, or longer, we need to have the CO2 greenshouse effect for that time. Otherwise, most of the world's second annual grain crop is gone Furthermore, cold sunspot periods are dry and produce famines.

We have 30% CUT in green biomass due to deforestation. Yes, we have been "saved by the sun" for now. Without Maunder Minimum, Earth would be COOKED ALREADY! Once cold sunspot ends, we in big trouble. We have severe global warming even with cold sun? Think about it!

[Wombat + 1,028]

17 hours ago, BradleyPNW said:

Ryobi and Cub Cadet make them now. 

Thanks, will have to check if available in Australia.

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Yes, I am presently living through the coldest Spring we have ever had, or it sure seem so. Still waiting for Global Warming at the latitude of Indianapolis. 

The American population center has moved from near Boston to southern Missouri, so air conditioning has had more influence than any warming that may have occurred. I think the population center will continue toward the Southwest. 

The North may actually need thousands of acres of natural gas heated greenhouses for fresh vegetables. 

Correspondingly we had the warmest ever Spring (virtually no frosts) in SE England and we are at a higher latitide than Indianapolis. 

That's the thing about 'Global Warming' its about the average surface temperature of earth and doesn't reflect regional variations in weather from year to year. 

[NickW + 2,714]

8 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Gilding the lily is stupid: Lets not overstate a decent thing ok? 

1st off: 1/2 the work in same amount of time with electric chainsaws compared to the SMALLEST ICE powered chainsaw(look up actual reviews on youtube who actually sharpened their saws properly for apples to apples comps) .  You have to stop and fill the oiler anyways along with replacing battery, so no, adding gas(20s to fill) is not a burden.  Now, no gasoline fumes big +, and less noise?  ++ 😀  Now, if you are pruning which means MOST of your work is moving/cleaning branches, yes, electric will work+++  After all everyone has been using electric chainsaw pruners for years for exactly this reason and why handsaws are still used extensively when pruning. 

Until someone can make a 3KW continuous duty electric motor someone can carry... electric chainsaws are doomed to irrelevance.  Currently the best DC motor brushless Neodymium magnet motor without the cooling additions, chainsaw frame, bar etc let alone the battery to power said 3KW motor weighs more than a medium-->large sized chainsaw full of fuel/oil that will run for 20 minutes straight without stopping.   PS: Best 3KW battery that would run for even 20 minutes-->1KW like a SINGLE tank of fuel, will set you back 10kg by itself which weighs more than a full up LARGE chainsaw fully fueled.

Electric battery powered equipment is not happening anytime soon for heavy work.  Light(yes as that has been true since days of NiMh) in the 90's/80s.  Increase current battery density 100%, at least most things become possible.  Still not possible for an electric chainsaw, but most other things. 

PPS: More $$$ is spent OILING the bar on a chainsaw by 3X than by fuel unless use of used filtered engine oil.  Most guys do not do. 

Nope - I work for a major rail company and we are rapidly phasing out petrol chainsaws for our day to day trackside work. Most railside trunks and branches are less than 12 inches across and cordless electric suits this fine. 

For day to day chainsaw work cordless electric is suitable. Its only when you get into feeling really big stuff you need the larger petrol model (hire for the day or get specialist in to do the felling) 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

Nope - I work for a major rail company and we are rapidly phasing out petrol chainsaws for our day to day trackside work. Most railside trunks and branches are less than 12 inches across and cordless electric suits this fine. 

For day to day chainsaw work cordless electric is suitable. Its only when you get into feeling really big stuff you need the larger petrol model (hire for the day or get specialist in to do the felling) 

When you are a gov employee, and hardly working, yup, nice ass slow electric chainsaw works.

Reminds me of the Jay Leno show: Modern Texting Girls who could use abbreviations vrs a slow old fart morse code operator who was not allowed to use abbreviations.  Morse code operators "texted" 3X as fast.  I am sure the girls thought they were fast...  "modern" technology for ya... we have devolved into stupid shits with less productivity and worse economics and call it "progress"

[BradleyPNW + 282]

8 hours ago, NickW said:

Correspondingly we had the warmest ever Spring (virtually no frosts) in SE England and we are at a higher latitide than Indianapolis. 

That's the thing about 'Global Warming' its about the average surface temperature of earth and doesn't reflect regional variations in weather from year to year. 

Often overlooked or not understood. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

8 hours ago, Wombat said:

We have 30% CUT in green biomass due to deforestation. Yes, we have been "saved by the sun" for now. Without Maunder Minimum, Earth would be COOKED ALREADY! Once cold sunspot ends, we in big trouble. We have severe global warming even with cold sun? Think about it!

The deforestation did not cause a drop in green biomass, just a cut in the portion of it that is forest.. The satellite measurement shows a clear 30% increase 

The Munder like minimum is coming up for the next 24 years. The CO2 is what will save us from starvation and freezing to the extent it actually contributes to the global warming - whatever its extent is. Ice core based estimates of temperatures back to antiquity show we never reached the high temperatures of the Roman era.