Majority of SARS coronavirus lasted 8 months . . . Majority of Covid19 coronavirus will last ___ months?

[BLA + 1,666]

Both Sweden and Brazil kept their economy open and let it take its course. They didn't see unusually high infections or deaths as compared to closed economies.  They did see much faster dissipation of the virus after its peak as a result of the herd immunity affect.

The current virus is called the "novel coronavirus" for a reason .   .   .   it's novel.  We didn't know much about it. The originating country, China, held back critical information and still covers up to this day.  We learn as we go.  

 

The original quarantine was implemented to "flatten the curve" so as to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.  It worked.  

In the meantime some states are limiting or slowing the opening of their economies. Why ? For political, afraid, concerns , etc ?  Don't know.

The Imperial College And Washington University models were dead wrong.

We have a choice destroy our economies beyond repair or start the "process" of opening.  Take a page from Sweden and Brazil playbooks.

Funny how the two of the most stridently opposed to opening the economy are Governor Cuomo (D) of New York and Governor Baker (R) of Massachusetts.  Both have terrible track record of handling the pandemic.  Both did little to nothing to protect the elderly in nursing homes or soldier retirement homes when they knew or should have known their vulnerability to this virus.  The result a very high mortality rates in their states.

Time to go back to work.  If there is a resurgence or second wave we will address it at that time. 

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by BLA

[LiamP + 168]

I agree with you on one thing - the US/UK style lockdowns are a disaster and need to end. Enacted too late to be truly effective and ridiculously too extreme in their scope. I just dont think Sweden and Brazil help make your point.

Sweden - they dont look bad compared to the very worst in the world, i.e. UK, Italy, etc, but the most valid comparison is between countries where all other factors except the response measures are pretty much the same, i.e. the rest of Scandinavia...

That's dead, hospitalised, in ICU and confirmed infected, all corrected for population size. The last graph is distorted somewhat by Iceland with it's statistically anomalous tiny population, and by the fact Sweden has not done much testing at all so drastically under reports number infected. We all know SARS2 isn't more deadly in Sweden than, say, Norway, so if Sweden has 16x the dead of Norway, they also have 16x the number infected, not the 3.6x they report.

So actually dramatically higher infections and deaths compared to their most similar 'closed' neighbours, and Norway, Denmark, etc only had moderately more restrictive measures, nothing like the insane lockdowns of US/UK etc, and they are already lifted. Norway down to about 20 confirmed infections per day, Denmark and Finland around 50, Iceland about 1 (per week!), Sweden still around 600 per day!

Yes Sweden has achieved a greater degree of herd immunity, nowhere near complete, but having some effect in Stockholm by now.

Brazil? Disipated fast?? I can only suggest maybe you were looking at their numbers backwards or up-side-down! Here it is the right way up...

The party is only just getting started! Possibly the bleakest looking data in the world today, worse even than India.

Allowing this to burn through your entire population with little or no effort to slow it down will only end up looking like the right strategy if all of the following comes to be...

- It turns out to be impossible to contain and extinguish it to nothing or a negligible level, i.e. what tentatively appears to have been achieved in S Korea, many other East Asia/Pacific nations, even Scandinavia except Sweden all fails and burning through the population is indeed inevitable for all. Wasn't the case for SARS1, MERS, Ebola, many others, and I see no reason it must be the case for SARS2, although it isn't properly tested until international travel resumes. If containment is possible with acceptable cost (i.e. no lockdowns) then it was a better strategy

- No effective treatment or vaccine ever emerges. Unlikely but possible. If it comes in the near future, then being in a hurry to let people get killed for the sake of herd immunity looks a bit silly.

- It doesn't mutate to the point herd immunity is irrelevant.

If all that happens, good call Sweden/Brazil! If not, then those that contained effectively or at least bought time with moderate/sustainable measures come out looking better.

In any outcome, the US/UK/Italy, etc non-strategy of wasting time till the infection is way out of control then panicking and drastically over compensating with insanely excessive full lockdowns is about the worst possible strategy, and I hope lessons are learned for next time.

Edited May 18, 2020 by LiamP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 minutes ago, LiamP said:

In any outcome, the US/UK/Italy, etc non-strategy of wasting time till the infection is way out of control then panicking and drastically over compensating with insanely excessive full lockdowns is about the worst possible strategy, and I hope lessons are learned for next time.

^ ^ ^ this

[Richard Snyder + 70]

And in North Dakota we find NEW guidelines......gatherings up to 250 people allowed, with venues allowed up to 50 percent occupancy.  Bars and restaurants have been opened over a week.   44 deaths to date in the State, with majority over 90 with underlying health conditions.  32 currently hospitalized.

Minnesota.....the bars and restaurants are threatening suit against the State.

Who is kidding who?