Aramco Needs Oil at $120 for $2 Trillion Valuation

So said the FT after making some calculations. That's harsher than what Bloomberg's Liam Denning estimated but not as harsh as what this guy had to say: “The figures, though good, still imply a valuation that falls short of what Saudi officials are after,” said Robin Mills, at Dubai-based energy consultancy Qamar Energy. “If they are still hung up on the $2tn number, it’s never going to work.” Reality check?

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If you use oil prices, CAPEX and the free cash flow yield, the valuation right now would be closer to $1 trillion, not $2 trillion. While the numbers all look great, it's really the free cash flow that investors are interested in for a higher valuation. 

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Interestingly, data shows that Aramco made all its profit on exploration and production. So net income is bigger than the five Big Oil companies combined, but there's no downstream money here. Net profit was $33.8 billion, but all E&P. Downstream earned only $842 million in net income, with a lost of $484 million for the first half of 2016. 

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yep, and even more granular details from OP: 

So Aramco generated less than $1B in refining and chemicals profits in the first half of last year compared to Shell's downstream profit of over $5 billion. 

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