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(edited)

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

 

Actually, there are New Yorkers who would disagree, since the state banned fracking

Blaming Trump for the lockdowns the states did is also wrong. There are multiple states which never locked down, such as South Dakota. But go ahead and vote for Biden, I'm sure things will get much better under him…

It's a moratorium and I am not sure it can be upheld in the long run. The justification is weak.  Out in West Texas and New Mexico where the Permian is being developed using the hated technique, there really aren't environmental concerns as used for justifying the moratorium in New York (there is no drinking water).  As the the feds doing anything to stop it in Texas, they would have a harder time than New York did because they really have no jurisdiction.  

JMO

Edited by wrs

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

With all respect, you're wrong. All it would take is a bill passing a Democrat House and Senate signed into effect by the president. 

It's really not that simple.  There has to be a justification and out in West Texas the basis they used in New York will not work (there is no drinking water).  In New York it's a moratorium and they do not have a permanent ban in effect.  Furthermore, what jurisdiction do the feds have?  If the state doesn't ban it, the feds will have a hard time enforcing their law.

Edited by wrs

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50 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I agree. But I'd say 515-530rigs + 315 frac spread count.  Technically the rigs dont need to be there if theres ducs to frac. IMO oil and gas prices are going to do the opposite of what there doing now. But due to Nat gas being a bull market with oil should be like steroids for companies mabey even enough to have free cash flow fund the re growth instead of banks. Plus the pipelines are all there (well could reduce flairing but mostly). 

In addition to DUCs, you must consider refracks. DUCs and refracks together should be enough to get the completion crews back to work quickly while the next round of hopeful investors get up their courage to finance more drilling.

I see no way to characterize NG as a "bull market" in the foreseeable future. I see a serious increase in demand as NG continues to replace coal, but I also see the NG market becoming increasingly global due to LNG, and I see several truly massive new sources coming onstream.

(I have no inside information and no expertise. I'm just commenting on stuff I read here on OilPrice.)

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1 hour ago, wrs said:

It's a moratorium and I am not sure it can be upheld in the long run. The justification is weak.  Out in West Texas and New Mexico where the Permian is being developed using the hated technique, there really aren't environmental concerns as used for justifying the moratorium in New York (there is no drinking water).  As the the feds doing anything to stop it in Texas, they would have a harder time than New York did because they really have no jurisdiction. 

Give me a break!

The only reason the drillers in the Permian have been able to violate Texas RR Commission Statewide Rule 32 and vent NG more than 24 hours and flare more than 10 days is because the EPA has been silenced--allowing the RR Commission decided to ignore their own rulebook. A large part of why the glut occurred is because drillers who couldn't possibly have continued their mad lemmings dash to the sea were able to continue because they could vent and flare to their heart's content. You've enjoyed free rein in the Permian and the Delaware largely BECAUSE of President Trump. 

This would be substantially different under a President Biden (briefly) and unrecognizable under President just about anyone else. Besides, Texas is turning bluer than a squid, and Blue Dog Democrats are going to do pretty much what their Party tells them to do. I'm worried that Texas will surprise the world and go blue this October. If that happens, the shale basins can fold their tents.

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1 minute ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Give me a break!

The only reason the drillers in the Permian have been able to violate Texas RR Commission Statewide Rule 32 and vent NG more than 24 hours and flare more than 10 days is because the EPA has been silenced--allowing the RR Commission decided to ignore their own rulebook. A large part of why the glut occurred is because drillers who couldn't possibly have continued their mad lemmings dash to the sea were able to continue because they could vent and flare to their heart's content. You've enjoyed free rein in the Permian and the Delaware largely BECAUSE of President Trump. 

This would be substantially different under a President Biden (briefly) and unrecognizable under President just about anyone else. Besides, Texas is turning bluer than a squid, and Blue Dog Democrats are going to do pretty much what their Party tells them to do. I'm worried that Texas will surprise the world and go blue this October. If that happens, the shale basins can fold their tents.

The same thing was going on during the Obama administration or did  you forget lower for longer?

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(edited)

On 6/26/2020 at 8:59 PM, Ward Smith said:

V12 jeep? Doubt it seriously. Maybe you mean V8? Even the 700hp trackhawk only has a V8 engine

Limited had two versions 4.8 V8 & 6.2 ??

 

After 2004 they made it ugly

Edited by Blackbag99

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On 6/27/2020 at 2:23 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

In addition to DUCs, you must consider refracks. DUCs and refracks together should be enough to get the completion crews back to work quickly while the next round of hopeful investors get up their courage to finance more drilling.

I see no way to characterize NG as a "bull market" in the foreseeable future. I see a serious increase in demand as NG continues to replace coal, but I also see the NG market becoming increasingly global due to LNG, and I see several truly massive new sources coming onstream.

(I have no inside information and no expertise. I'm just commenting on stuff I read here on OilPrice.)

Fair enough.  In one way your correct (in my veiw) globally prices are more aligned than ever. But drilling is not profitable under 3$ globally and neither is LNG. So from our current stand point of 1.75$ that's more bullish than bearish. Also with low prices comes reduced rigs , shut ins, canceled LNG deliveries,  demand increase,  production decline ect. So I might be early calling this winter the start of a bull market but the low price is it's own cure IMO. But unlike oil the wells and politics arnt so quick to react. I dont know the size and start dates vs demand so I cant comment on global projects

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i stopped trading oil a while ago, when i found much risker and rewarding investments, however i look at oil from time to time, for trading ideas, use your own intellect. .

So today we see brent at 41-42, next move up will hit 54. And lots of volatility when it will reach 60s, this will be where there will be lots of confusion, and all the people who said oil would hit 10 again, or lower, willl come out of woodwork againas the have since oil crased below 0, and constantly been proven wrong over and over 100s of times, and will tell you this will be the last spike, and predict then end of oil. This will be advice from the big banks, the regular so called experts we see on tv all the time, who only get it right when indeed there is a bear market, and as it goes down, the predict lower prices, since its easy to predcit prices to go where they have been but its risky and much harder to predcit new levels for prices, which requires skill and intellect, but qualities missing  from most talking heads, and gurus.

But fundamentally, here is the twister. Yes people are not working etc, but the world still needs oil, all over the world. The future epidemics will be even worse than now, closures will be even worse, protests even worse, all this will put pressure on oils production, raising the price. More wars or two, though right now war is between India/China US/ISRAEL/TURKEY against Syria/Russia. China/ HongKong maybe China/Taiwan, Saudi/Yemen, US/Venezuela US/ISRAEL vs iRAN/RUSSIA maybe skirmishes soon between US/China all will slow production and distribution spiking price even further. 

Still maintaining $100 price target.

 

 

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exactly lots of producers wont produce will which lower the supply by 50%, increasing prices by 50% so 40*50% = $60 price point and then with added disruptions we could see 100

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On 6/27/2020 at 6:37 PM, Tomasz said:

Super bull wave coming eventually? 

In offshore we have hoped for recovery for 6 years now... Hope is not a strategy. 

There are also bearish indicators - lower overall economic  activity. Less private and business travel. Less business travel is happening and will seriously alter the travel business.

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Do you know how much oil is needed to manufacture  2 billion rubber gloves?? Masks and other pharmacy items ????  
 

Between the inflation that’s coming and rig count and how shale wells Peter out I see $150 again easily 

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4 hours ago, Omega man said:

Do you know how much oil is needed to manufacture  2 billion rubber gloves?? Masks and other pharmacy items ????  
 

No, but I can make a rough estimate. 200 Nitrile gloves weigh less than a pound. A barrel of crude weighs more than 300 pounds. let's guess that we can convert  two pounds of crude to one pound of nitrile, so a bbl will make at least 150x200=30000 gloves. 2 billion gloves will take less than 66,000 bbl.  Current (pre-pandemic) oil production is about 100 million bbl/day. So those 2 billion gloves will take 66/100,000 of one day's production, or just less than one minute of global crude production.

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