What's Priced Into the Market Already?

In today's volatile oil market, we have seen a series of let downs with regard to price swings when fears are realized or fears are dispelled. Sometimes I feel the market has grown numb to certain things (like OPEC jawboning, for example). Other times, I think the market reacted with apathy to a specific situation because it's what the majority of people were expecting anyway, i.e., it was already priced in.

It seems to me this Iran sanction business is the latter--I feel this is already priced into oil, and if sanctions do hit, prices will not rise much further. If the sanction waiver is not extended next month, I feel prices will actually fall. 

What other things are priced into the market already?

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Venezuela, I should think. That headwind is not going away anytime soon, so everyone should be bored with it by now.

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