what do religious minorities located in strategic oil regions mean for global oil markets?

[jose chalhoub + 388]

I have been since quite a long time studying and monitoring the ethno-religious dynamics in the Middle East region and its relationship and impact for global oil markets and geopolitics especially seen from the optic of the ongoing sunni-shiite confrontation led by saudi arabia and iran now open in many war fronts like Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq to name the most oil sensitive. For example what does it mean in terms of real threats for the regime of the Al Saouds to have a restive region in the Eastern Province of the kingdom, holding the most important oil and gas facilities and populated by the largest shiite minority in the country, being home of recent skirmishes against the kingdom, allegedly sponsored by Iran. https://www.chamber.org.sa/sites/English/InformationCenter/Studies_documents/Eastern_Province.PDF.

And on the other way around, what are the main threats, tangible threats for Iran and the Islamic Revolution, shiite denominated to have also its restive region populated by arabs Khuzestan, being the major oil region of Iran and where many skirmishes have happened in the past allegedly stirred by the Al Sauds. http://www.arabnews.com/node/1058891. Also the same happens in cases like Iraq with the oil producing region of Kurdistan, and their many clash over oil contracts and other issues between Irbil and Baghdad, and now the case of Bahrain, with an important oil reserve discovered and how important threats will be there regarding its shiite majority population against the sultanate supported by Riyadh. Definitely this is in my view an exciting case to analyse when it comes to study the oil geopolitics in the region and how it will determine oil markets since for example, any major attack by a grieved group of shiite in the Eastern Province, interrupting or shutting down production either in this region or in the Khuzestan as a major demostration against each country's power will cause a large impact on global markets and spiking prices. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

On 4/29/2018 at 12:08 PM, jose chalhoub said:

I have been since quite a long time studying and monitoring the ethno-religious dynamics in the Middle East region and its relationship and impact for global oil markets and geopolitics especially seen from the optic of the ongoing sunni-shiite confrontation led by saudi arabia and iran now open in many war fronts like Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq to name the most oil sensitive. For example what does it mean in terms of real threats for the regime of the Al Saouds to have a restive region in the Eastern Province of the kingdom, holding the most important oil and gas facilities and populated by the largest shiite minority in the country, being home of recent skirmishes against the kingdom, allegedly sponsored by Iran. https://www.chamber.org.sa/sites/English/InformationCenter/Studies_documents/Eastern_Province.PDF.

And on the other way around, what are the main threats, tangible threats for Iran and the Islamic Revolution, shiite denominated to have also its restive region populated by arabs Khuzestan, being the major oil region of Iran and where many skirmishes have happened in the past allegedly stirred by the Al Sauds. http://www.arabnews.com/node/1058891. Also the same happens in cases like Iraq with the oil producing region of Kurdistan, and their many clash over oil contracts and other issues between Irbil and Baghdad, and now the case of Bahrain, with an important oil reserve discovered and how important threats will be there regarding its shiite majority population against the sultanate supported by Riyadh. Definitely this is in my view an exciting case to analyse when it comes to study the oil geopolitics in the region and how it will determine oil markets since for example, any major attack by a grieved group of shiite in the Eastern Province, interrupting or shutting down production either in this region or in the Khuzestan as a major demostration against each country's power will cause a large impact on global markets and spiking prices. 

I'm sure we have some greater geopolitical prowess on the board who could better answer your question, but I will say that perception is reality, so even the perception of unrest can have a significant impact on the global oil market.