The Iran Deal

Interested to hear the thoughts from the members of the forum on what the knock on effect would be to oil prices and energy stocks this coming week prior to the US administration making a decision on extendeding the current Iran nuclear agreement or withdrawing from it.

personally I think the market has priced in a lot of the effect looking at the current oil price and energy stock prices in the last couple of weeks but interested to hear other viewpoints on possible outcomes and longer term effects on the market.

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On 5/6/2018 at 2:53 AM, FeetDontFailMeNow said:

Interested to hear the thoughts from the members of the forum on what the knock on effect would be to oil prices and energy stocks this coming week prior to the US administration making a decision on extendeding the current Iran nuclear agreement or withdrawing from it.

personally I think the market has priced in a lot of the effect looking at the current oil price and energy stock prices in the last couple of weeks but interested to hear other viewpoints on possible outcomes and longer term effects on the market.

I would tend to agree: much of the Iran sanctions fear (or more specifically, fear that Iran's oil exports will be restricted as a result) is already priced into the market. Likewise, I think any news of NOT reimposing sanctions will be met with a significant but temporary price slip. The oil market isn't having any price stability nonsense these days. 

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Energy company stocks seem to be a bit detached from oil price movements recently, so I don't think there will be any major effect on those. 

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Trump's supposed to announce Iran decision today .... 

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Nuance isn't Trump's greatest gift. So, he thinks his voters are simple, so every 'announcement' from him is done to reflect this. Withdrawing from the deal doesn't tell us anything about sanctions. That's all still to be decided, and it's a long process and nothing is set in stone. However, at the same time, he looks 'tough'. 

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“Over the past few months, we have engaged extensively with our allies and partners around the world, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We have also consulted with our friends from across the Middle East. We are unified in our understanding of the threat and in our conviction that Iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. After these consultations, it is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement. The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen. In just a short period of time, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapon. Therefore, I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal.”

to include the highest level of economic sanction, apparently--whatever that means.

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